Todays game is a good ex to not pass on Oliver if avaiable

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

No but if say maybe they sign a couple recievers and olinemen in free agency, maybe a new TE too and then draft a reciever and a young RB with some of the "other" draft picks they'd be headed in the right direction. 

 

They scored 5 points in a Modern Football game against a 1-5 team. 

 

Which also included a 7 minute FG drive. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 minutes ago, Mark80 said:

 

If this team takes a defensive player with the #1 or #2 overall pick in the draft, well, then it is time to bring out the pitch forks.  The ONLY sensible options are offense or trading down.  Oliver and Bosa are not a luxury we can afford with the current state of affairs of the roster, unfortunately. 

 

I don't understand why people think by taking a elite defensive lineman first that the Bills couldn't use other resources like free agency and the other 9 draft picks towards the offense.  

If the Bills are picking like 5th and there isn't a good tradedown offer and the best prospect by far is a defensive player you gotta go with the talent.  There will be more picks and hopefully some serious money was already used on offense in free agency. 

[Mark80]

12 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

 

I don't understand why people think by taking a elite defensive lineman first that the Bills couldn't use other resources like free agency and the other 9 draft picks towards the offense.  

If the Bills are picking like 5th and there isn't a good tradedown offer and the best prospect by far is a defensive player you gotta go with the talent.  There will be more picks and hopefully some serious money was already used on offense in free agency. 

 

Because the impact of the defensive player over the current state player is minimized as compared to the impact of offensive players.  Look at it this way.  If you have a WR that you rate a 60 on a 1-100 scale and you can add a WR you have rated as a 90, that's a 30 point jump.  If you already have defensive linemen that you rate 85 and you are drafting a guy that you rate a 98, that's only a 13 point jump.  You get the most "bang for the buck" by upgrading your worst positions typically.  When you have so many roster positions that are in rough shape, you can't afford to take that elite player who only gives you a little bump over what you have.  That is a luxury reserved for teams that already have a decent roster IMO.

Edited October 22, 2018 by Mark80

[TheBeaneBandit]

7 minutes ago, Mark80 said:

 

Because the impact of the defensive player over the current state player is minimized as compared to the impact of offensive players.  Look at it this way.  If you have a WR that you rate a 60 on a 1-100 scale and you can add a WR you have rated as a 90, that's a 30 point jump.  If you already have defensive linemen that you rate 85 and you are drafting a guy that you rate a 98, that's only a 13 point jump.  You get the most "bang for the buck" by upgrading your worst positions typically.  When you have so many roster positions that are in rough shape, you can't afford to take that elite player who only gives you a little bump over what you have.  That is a luxury reserved for teams that already have a decent roster IMO.

I hear you.  I don't think any WR are top 10 material this draft but in your scenario i'd love a pick of Jonah Williams ?

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

11 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Defensive Tackles win championships!

Don't tell Aaron Donald that.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Don't tell Aaron Donald that.

 

Let me know when he has a ring and besides the engine that drives that team is the offense led by Goff and Gurley.   Try again. 

[Mrbojanglezs]

We need more picks in the first 2 rounds trade down. This teams needs a lot of players. One top of the draft guy will not help 

[Real McClappy]

All depends on how or what they do in free agency. If we pick up 2 Stud OL and a true number 1 WR I'd be somewhat ok with BPA in the 1st. The upcoming draft is a heavy one for D talent. There are a few studs that will go early at WR though we should be considering if not addressed in FA. Just way to early to tell.

 

Right now with current state of affairs though the draft has to be offense.

[davspo]

12 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

While this team has many problems todays game was a great example of the need for an elite interior rusher.  I know many here are on the trade down train,  and i hear yas, but I'm on record for not passing up an elite talent if available,  which we currently have none of.  Bottom line I don't pass on Oliver or Bosa if available.  Snag a couple recievers and oline in free agency and keep drafting bpa.  Of course i believe we need quite a bit of coaching changes as well but i don't feel like going there right now lol

 

So exactly how many more years are we going to completely neglect the offense?

[Matt_In_NH]

11 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

This team needs talent wherever they can get it. It would be a mistake to pass on a more talented player simply because you’ve convinced yourself to take a specific position. 

 

I agree, if one player is clearly way better you have to go that route.  Virgil is also not wrong though but I would argue they can make huge strides on offense both in the draft and in FA with all the money available.   

 

Question though, is it ever ok to draft a first round qb two years in a row?   I get Allen needs time but if he does not work out where are we?

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 minutes ago, davspo said:

 

So exactly how many more years are we going to completely neglect the offense?

Free agency and 9 other draft picks dog

[Dave Allen]

12 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

While this team has many problems todays game was a great example of the need for an elite interior rusher.  I know many here are on the trade down train,  and i hear yas, but I'm on record for not passing up an elite talent if available,  which we currently have none of.  Bottom line I don't pass on Oliver or Bosa if available.  Snag a couple recievers and oline in free agency and keep drafting bpa.  Of course i believe we need quite a bit of coaching changes as well but i don't feel like going there right now lol

I agree - as much as we need to fill other spots, you don't pass up an elite player at an impact position. Bosa or Oliver could give the Bills an elite talent at all three levels on defense and set it up for years. Keep the D elite while you build the O. 

[davspo]

1 minute ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Free agency and 9 other draft picks dog

 

If they do that, I would be fine with it.  I suspect they won't.  This staff is in way over their heads on the offensive side of the ball.

[TFBillsfan]

Trade down and acquire more picks. Get your starting OT in the draft. Sign a FA OG. Draft WR and TE with next two picks. Sign two FA Wr’s. Add RB, OLB, CB with other picks. Fill in with FA where needed. Bills have Hughes, Lawson, Murphy, Harrison and Phillips plus Star. More talent there than anywhere else on the roster.

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, davspo said:

 

If they do that, I would be fine with it.  I suspect they won't.  This staff is in way over their heads on the offensive side of the ball.

Probably ?

[davspo]

1 minute ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Probably ?

 

What is the point of having an elite defense if you can't score more than 3 points?  They need receivers, offensive lineman, and a damn veteran quarterback.  If Carr is available for trade, for a second round pick, as reported, they are foolish not to get it done immediately!!!!!  This team has not had a quarterback since Jim Kelly.  They have done almost nothing about it until this year and it's pretty clear that the kid needs a lot of learning-perhaps several years.  Unless or until they invest significant assets in the offense, things will never change- ever!

 

Bosa or Oliver are luxuries  they cannot afford. Sadly. 

[Coach Tuesday]

The Rams spent first round picks on Gurley and Goff.  That’s it.  Most of the rest of their high picks have focused on defense, FYI.

[billsredneck1]

8 minutes ago, davspo said:

 

What is the point of having an elite defense if you can't score more than 3 points?  They need receivers, offensive lineman, and a damn veteran quarterback.  If Carr is available for trade, for a second round pick, as reported, they are foolish not to get it done immediately!!!!!  This team has not had a quarterback since Jim Kelly.  They have done almost nothing about it until this year and it's pretty clear that the kid needs a lot of learning-perhaps several years.  Unless or until they invest significant assets in the offense, things will never change- ever!

 

Bosa or Oliver are luxuries  they cannot afford. Sadly. 

this should be done today.  send them kb... a 2nd next year(which will probably be almost a late 1st)...and a 2nd in 2020 for carr and cooper. whatever it takes.

screw all this draft talk or free agent talk. we need to take action right now!  9 days left!

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Dave Allen said:

I agree - as much as we need to fill other spots, you don't pass up an elite player at an impact position. Bosa or Oliver could give the Bills an elite talent at all three levels on defense and set it up for years. Keep the D elite while you build the O. 

 

I agree too. The draft is not for filling holes. If that is how you use it "oh my offensive line stinks I have to take an offensive tackle" you will never build a sustainable, consistent winner. 

 

I haven't got that much into the draft yet but Bosa and Oliver both look like proper blue chip elite prospects to me. You don't pass on that to fill needs at OL and WR. If there is a blue chip elite prospect at one of those spots you take him instead but teams that win championships have at least 3 or 4 elite talents. If one is sitting there for you then you pick them. 

 

If you are in 4-6 range and there is nobody of the elite looking type there then sure try and trade back and get more picks. But picks are a means to getting elite talent. That is what they are there for. 

[mannc]

13 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

While this team has many problems todays game was a great example of the need for an elite interior rusher.  I know many here are on the trade down train,  and i hear yas, but I'm on record for not passing up an elite talent if available,  which we currently have none of.  Bottom line I don't pass on Oliver or Bosa if available.  Snag a couple recievers and oline in free agency and keep drafting bpa.  Of course i believe we need quite a bit of coaching changes as well but i don't feel like going there right now lol

No, of course the Bills should not use their first pick on an interior defensive lineman.  The last time they did that—8 yeas ago—they passed on two generational talents at WR, both of whom are still lighting up the league.

 

The real question is, do you have enough confidence in McBeane to allow them to make that pick?  So far, they have proven to be utterly incompetent when it comes to putting a modern NFL offense on the field.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I hate the idea of trading down.

 

The Browns tried trading down for years and passed on guys like Julio Jones and Carson Wentz to pick up guys like Justin Gilbert and Barkavious Mingo. 

 

You either take talent or you play against them for the next decade.

[Nihilarian]

40 minutes ago, mannc said:

No, of course the Bills should not use their first pick on an interior defensive lineman.  The last time they did that—8 yeas ago—they passed on two generational talents at WR, both of whom are still lighting up the league.

 

The real question is, do you have enough confidence in McBeane to allow them to make that pick?  So far, they have proven to be utterly incompetent when it comes to putting a modern NFL offense on the field.  

In case that Bills fans don't remember those two players are AJ Green, Julio Jones.  

 

Anyway, one blue chip player isn't going to turn this franchise around unless it's a QB who can do it all on his own regardless of how bad his offensive line is and the only guy I can think of that can do that is Russell Wilson. Even he needed a run game to take pressure off of him to make that offense work. 

 

Before yesterdays game Colts QB Andrew Luck begged the HC Frank Reich to please "run the ball", they did just that and the results were more than obvious. That Colts run game took the heat off of Luck and forced the Bills defenders to focus on stopping the run which opened up the Colts passing game and Luck skewered the Bills defense.  4 TDs  passing for Andrew Luck

 

Going back to that bolded sentence the Bills could have traded back from that #3 spot and still gotten two or more of the great players from that first round. Then you need to think about that second sentence because this offensive coaching staff can't be relied on to evaluate anyone.

Edited October 22, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Soda Popinski]

I'd take Bosa over Oliver, but then I'd trade my late round picks for extra 2nd and 3rds and draft all offense. 

[billsbackto81]

14 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

While this team has many problems todays game was a great example of the need for an elite interior rusher.  I know many here are on the trade down train,  and i hear yas, but I'm on record for not passing up an elite talent if available,  which we currently have none of.  Bottom line I don't pass on Oliver or Bosa if available.  Snag a couple recievers and oline in free agency and keep drafting bpa.  Of course i believe we need quite a bit of coaching changes as well but i don't feel like going there right now lol

How's Jacksonville doing with their elite front line defense?

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The Rams spent first round picks on Gurley and Goff.  That’s it.  Most of the rest of their high picks have focused on defense, FYI.

Not really true. They spent a 2 on Watkins and a 1 on Cooks. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

31 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I hate the idea of trading down.

 

The Browns tried trading down for years and passed on guys like Julio Jones and Carson Wentz to pick up guys like Justin Gilbert and Barkavious Mingo. 

 

You either take talent or you play against them for the next decade.

The Browns drafted busts. So yeah, if you trade down and draft busts you're in trouble. Plus the biggest problem was they were passing on QBs as well. The Bills would only trade down if they believe in building around Allen. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, TheTruthHurts said:

The Browns drafted busts. So yeah, if you trade down and draft busts you're in trouble. Plus the biggest problem was they were passing on QBs as well. The Bills would only trade down if they believe in building around Allen. 

The Bills draft record is not any better. 

 

We could have had Kahlil Mack from UB. Instead we take the worst WR drafted in that first round at #4. 

 

I would not trade down. Stay put and draft Top 5 talent.

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Not really true. They spent a 2 on Watkins and a 1 on Cooks. 

 

Well, if we're talking about trading picks, that's another conversation.  But the idea that you have to draft and develop players on offense is simply not true.  There are different ways to do it - it's about resource allocation.  Spending draft picks on college players is just one way to spend limited resources.

[Soda Popinski]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The Rams spent first round picks on Gurley and Goff.  That’s it.  Most of the rest of their high picks have focused on defense, FYI.

They don't mind trading picks for players, they traded for Watkins, they traded for Brandon Cooks, they drafted Cooper Kupp, they just keep adding weapons and it's paying off for them.  They brought in Whitworth to play LT, signed Suh.    They have drafted well and signed good free agents.   

 

But first and foremost they got their QB.   And they got their HC.   

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

No, of course the Bills should not use their first pick on an interior defensive lineman.  The last time they did that—8 yeas ago—they passed on two generational talents at WR, both of whom are still lighting up the league.

 

The real question is, do you have enough confidence in McBeane to allow them to make that pick?  So far, they have proven to be utterly incompetent when it comes to putting a modern NFL offense on the field.  

 

If there are generational type WRs of course they should pick them over dlinemen. Maybe there are in this draft... not really looked in detail yet but none have jumped out at me the college ball I have seen. 

[Reed83HOF]

You simply do not pass on elite, blue chip talent to fill roster holes in the draft. A good scenario from our past would equate to passing on Bruce Smith in order to draft Bill Fralic or Al Toon. There are 2 impact positions that you should be drafting high in rd 1 are an elite QB Prospect and an elite Pass Rushing prospect; those are the 2 game changing positions.

 

Teams that draft to fill holes instead of accumulating elite talent field poor teams...

[davspo]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

You simply do not pass on elite, blue chip talent to fill roster holes in the draft. A good scenario from our past would equate to passing on Bruce Smith in order to draft Bill Fralic or Al Toon. There are 2 impact positions that you should be drafting high in rd 1 are an elite QB Prospect and an elite Pass Rushing prospect; those are the 2 game changing positions.

 

Teams that draft to fill holes instead of accumulating elite talent field poor teams...

 

I don't know if your last line is accurate, but I can say the Bills have been fielding a poor team since the 1990s.  

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, davspo said:

 

I don't know if your last line is accurate, but I can say the Bills have been fielding a poor team since the 1990s.  

 

Every season at draft time, the conversation of BPA vs need always springs up. There are certain positions that are more valuable than others (QB & Pass Rusher vs LB & S), overall positional cost (x amount of salary cap $ for WRs) etc. When you are drafting to fill holes, that is when you tend see players and positions get over-drafted; the results are usually never ideal. When you draft at the top of the draft, you want to grab as many blue chip players as possible. That infusion of talent who can take over a game because they are that skilled will help the overall organization out more in the long run. I found this article earlier this year, and even though it is fan based, it is very well thought out IMO in regards to this...

 

"Drafting for need is reactive, rather than proactive.

Drafting for need means that the front office is focused only one year ahead. Basically, the franchise is asking the question: What position(s) do we need to fill in order to compete this year?

The problem is that the organization may leave better players on the board in the effort to draft a guy that they think will make them competitive in September.

The front office should be asking the question: Which player available will have the strongest positive impact on the franchise for the longest number of years?

That’s the guy you choose.

 

Instead of drafting for a year, teams should draft for a decade.

Ten years later, people will remember and complain about the fact that the team’s GM left an all-pro on the board to pick a tight end because the OC needed him to ‘complete’ the scheme. However, if the GM passes on that tight end to select the best player in the draft, no one will ever bemoan the fact that the team couldn’t execute its full scheme because they didn’t have the right tight end for the system; they’ll be thrilled to have the all-pro talent for the next ten years.

Drafting for need puts a team in a bad cycle that’s hard to break out of. The team will leave talented players on the board year after year as they chase the ephemeral ‘complete’ roster."

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/1/30/16882302/the-5-oclock-club-redskins-nfl-draft-bpa

 

On this board we never, ever, B word about who we passed on in the draft.  

 

This part also rings true:

 

"I’ve heard theories that are in direct opposition to what I believe. Some people think that the first round is where you draft for need (find an immediate starter for this season!), and that you can switch to a BPA philosophy in later rounds. That’s exactly backwards.

The first round is where the generational players are usually found. No, I’m not suggesting that great players can’t be found in later rounds or that great players can’t be found among the undrafted free agents. Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Tony Romo, among many many others are proof that talent evaluation is in part a crap shoot. But like craps (or nearly any form of gambling) some bets are more likely to pay off than others, and grabbing a guy with great on-field skills, athleticism, measurables, a seemingly good attitude, character and love for football in the first round is probably going to work out more often than not.

In addition, in the 1st round, there can often be huge differences in talent from one pick to the next; these differences become less and less clear as we get to later rounds of the draft as players become more and more ‘average’."

 

[Jaywrizzo]

10 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

I wouldn’t trust you to run a bath, never mind an NFL team. Yikes.

Hahahahaha....ok clown....go get all the D ends U can find...lets see how well ur team does!

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, Jaywrizzo said:

Hahahahaha....ok clown....go get all the D ends U can find...lets see how well ur team does!

 

Just so you’re aware, the NFL draft has more than 1 round.

[Jaywrizzo]

On 10/22/2018 at 8:11 PM, Bangarang said:

 

Just so you’re aware, the NFL draft has more than 1 round.

U just proved U know nothing about football....so I'm going to end this dumb conversation. 

[billsfan89]

On 10/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, Virgil said:

I would be pissed if we took Oliver.  We’ve spent enough on defense and that’s not what’s losing games for us. 

 

We are 3rd in the league in sacks. 

 

We have to score points. 

 

The only issue is what if a pass rusher is by far and away the best player available and there isn't a trade down? It might be plausible that if the Bills draft in the top 3 a pass rusher might be the prospect worth taking (If you had the 4th overall pick in this years draft do you take the elite defensive prospect in Ward or Chubb or do you massively reach for a receiver?)

 

It might be more palatable to take a pass rusher at or near the top of the draft if there is a big spending spree on the offensive side of the ball and the 2nd and 3rd round picks are invested into the offense as well. If the Bills go out and sign 2 solid veteran WR's and 2 interior O-line players it makes it easier to put a big investment into the defense like that. 

 

I do hope there is a trade down available but that might not be the case.