Illustration of just how tough it is to read coverages

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This amazes me.  Credit where due: it's linked by 26Cornerblitz in the All-22 Coaches Film Reviews thread, but I'm bringing it up here to try for a wider read.

 

The high level summary:

1) 10-year NFL journeyman Dan Orlovsky critiques an Allen play as, essentially, Allen missing an obvious blitz read, Allen needs to improve.

2) Along comes 3x Superbowl QB, MVP winner, all pro Kurt Warner and says "wait a minute, I don't see it that way"

 

If you can watch Orlovsky's very convincing chalkboard critique and then read Kurt Warner's rebuttals and NOT get the flick on just how challenging it can be to diagnose a blitz pre-snap and know where to look first in the NFL, well, I just don't know what to say to you.

 

 

 

[The_Dude]

?

[Fadingpain]

I thought it was pretty straight forward; the key is Allen should have known Shady would take a defender with him to the right side of the ball.  That leaves a mis-match on the left side of the ball, and that becomes the weak link in the protection.  Which is exactly how the play unfolded. 

 

But Allen doesn't look left at the most vulnerable area, b/c he's not reading the defense or thinking through the game of football on this level.  This is nothing new for him and one of his longstanding weaknesses.

 

This is what Tom Brady called, a few years ago, a "wasted play" meaning the play was over before it began because the QB didn't see what was about to happen.

The good/great QBs like Brady don't have wasted plays, or hardly any, b/c they have a very high football IQ and "see" what's going to happen pre-snap and adjust accordingly.

 

Remember, the QB has a huge advantage in that he knows what the offense is going to do and he has the ability to alter the play before it happens!  

The D is just reacting to what unfolds in front of them.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2018 by Fadingpain

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This amazes me.  Credit where due: it's linked by 26Cornerblitz in the All-22 Coaches Film Reviews thread, but I'm bringing it up here to try for a wider read.

 

The high level summary:

1) 10-year NFL journeyman Dan Orlovsky critiques an Allen play as, essentially, Allen missing an obvious blitz read, Allen needs to improve.

2) Along comes 3x Superbowl QB, MVP winner, all pro Kurt Warner and says "wait a minute, I don't see it that way"

 

If you can watch Orlovsky's very convincing chalkboard critique and then read Kurt Warner's rebuttals and NOT get the flick on just how challenging it can be to diagnose a blitz pre-snap and know where to look first in the NFL, well, I just don't know what to say to you.

 

 

 

 

The seventh guy not in the initial qb view frame vwas the sacker 

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, Fadingpain said:

I thought it was pretty straight forward; the key is Allen should have known Shady would take a defender with him to the right side of the ball.  That leaves a mis-match on the left side of the ball, and that becomes the weak link in the protection.  Which is exactly how the play unfolded. 

 

But Allen doesn't look left at the most vulnerable area, b/c he's not reading the defense or thinking through the game of football on this level.  This is nothing new for him and one of his longstanding weaknesses.

 

This is what Tom Brady called, a few years ago, a "wasted play" meaning the play was over before it began because the QB didn't see what was about to happen.

The good/great QBs like Brady don't have wasted plays, are hardly any, b/c they have a very high football IQ and "see" what's going to happen pre-snap and adjust accordingly.

 

Remember, the QB has a huge advantage in that he knows what the offense is going to do and he has the ability to alter the play before it happens!  

The D is just reacting to what unfolds in front of them.

 

 

 

 

 

After 3 starts "at this level" its a bit foolish to  assert "long standing weakness".  In the very same sentence.  Please refrain from pretending you understand his weaknesses from college and how you can project them on to the NFL.   You will only look more foolish.  

[Fadingpain]

19 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

After 3 starts "at this level" its a bit foolish to  assert "long standing weakness".  In the very same sentence.  Please refrain from pretending you understand his weaknesses from college and how you can project them on to the NFL.   You will only look more foolish.  

What I meant was that not reading plays at the line is what Allen has been doing all along, and it's why scouts call him "raw" and "not ready" and "further behind other QBs in the draft class."  Of course you can see his college weaknesses and project them on the NFL

 

He doesn't process the game anywhere near the same level as, for example, Josh Rosen or Darnold, and it's why he was labeled a project, most scouts had him as a 3rd round project, and why I was pissed off the moment they announced we took Allen.  

 

You can play the "it's early" game now, and for a while to come.

 

Eventually you'll see he doesn't have it.  Hang in there.

 

 

Edited October 2, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan
inappropriate language

[26CornerBlitz]

5 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

After 3 starts "at this level" its a bit foolish to  assert "long standing weakness".  In the very same sentence.  Please refrain from pretending you understand his weaknesses from college and how you can project them on to the NFL.   You will only look more foolish.  

 

Not when the issue dates back to Wyoming as a well known challenge that he needed to overcome with the speed and complexity of NFL defenses only making things more difficult.

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

What I meant was that not reading plays at the line is what Allen has been doing all along, and it's why scouts call him "raw" and "not ready" and "further behind other QBs in the draft class."  Of course you can see his college weaknesses and project them on the NFL! 

 

He doesn't process the game anywhere near the same level as, for example, Josh Rosen or Darnold, and it's why he was labeled a project, most scouts had him as a 3rd round project, and why I was pissed off the moment they announced we took Allen.  

 

You can play the "it's early" game now, and for a while to come.

 

Eventually you'll see he doesn't have it.  Hang in there.

 

 

Most scouts did not say that.  You keep repeating this as gospel and it's not.  You say it just to support your negativity.

 

The kid needs to learn.  My bet is he will.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I thought it was pretty straight forward; the key is Allen should have known Shady would take a defender with him to the right side of the ball.

 

Did you actually read Kurt Warner's stuff?

Actually, let me rephrase that: you did not read Kurt Warner's responses.  What is evident to you and Dan Orlovsky is apparently not so obvious and evident to Kurt Warner.

 

That is the point.

[Buffalo716]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Did you actually read Kurt Warner's stuff?

Actually, let me rephrase that: you did not read Kurt Warner's responses.  What is evident to you and Dan Orlovsky is apparently not so obvious and evident to Kurt Warner.

 

That is the point.

Maybe because I’m computer illiterate or I don’t have a Twitter but...

 

can you please highlight Warner’s rebuttable or tell me what he said...

 

i only see this in the tweet..

 

It’s just something that’s easily fixable. Understanding what you have called on offense-what’s the problem of the defense-what’s your plan to handle. Allen has done some nice stuff-GOT TO SEE GROWTH IN THIS AREA! #NFLGamePass #NFLPartner @TheBillsMafia @SteveTasker89 #BillsMafia

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Maybe because I’m computer illiterate or I don’t have a Twitter but...

 

can you please highlight Warner’s rebuttable or tell me what he said...

 

i only see this in the tweet..

 

It’s just something that’s easily fixable. Understanding what you have called on offense-what’s the problem of the defense-what’s your plan to handle. Allen has done some nice stuff-GOT TO SEE GROWTH IN THIS AREA! #NFLGamePass #NFLPartner @TheBillsMafia @SteveTasker89 #BillsMafia

 

[vincec]

22 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Not when the issue dates back to Wyoming as a well known challenge that he needed to overcome with the speed and complexity of NFL defenses only making things more difficult.

I think you're being harsh. I'm amazed that anyone thinks the Bills can take a QB that everyone agreed needed time to develop, start him right away with the worst offensive personnel in the NFL, and think he isn't going to struggle. At this point I would say it will be a feather in Allen's cap if he can survive this season without getting hurt, having his confidence crushed or developing bad habits.

[26CornerBlitz]

10 hours ago, vincec said:

I think you're being harsh. I'm amazed that anyone thinks the Bills can take a QB that everyone agreed needed time to develop, start him right away with the worst offensive personnel in the NFL, and think he isn't going to struggle. At this point I would say it will be a feather in Allen's cap if he can survive this season without getting hurt, having his confidence crushed or developing bad habits.

 

What's harsh about it?  It is what it is.  The plan was to allow him the time to sit and learn, but the Bills only have themselves to blame for this predicament by not having a more established veteran QB on hand and also not investing more resources in the OL and receiving corps.  They instead went defense heavy in UFA and the draft while foolishly believing in Nathan Peterman as a viable caretaker bridge option. 

Edited October 3, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Maybe because I’m computer illiterate or I don’t have a Twitter but...

 

can you please highlight Warner’s rebuttable or tell me what he said...

 

i only see this in the tweet..

 

It’s just something that’s easily fixable. Understanding what you have called on offense-what’s the problem of the defense-what’s your plan to handle. Allen has done some nice stuff-GOT TO SEE GROWTH IN THIS AREA! #NFLGamePass #NFLPartner @TheBillsMafia @SteveTasker89 #BillsMafia

You might try pasting this into your browser bar:

pic.twitter.com/3rtP2RnMAu

 

It should bring up a window with the above (Orlovsky's tweet), a graphic you can click on to get his analysis, and then all the back-and-forth replies from Warner

 

I don't have a twitter account myself and I can see it all

 

[vincec]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

What's harsh about it?  It is what it is.  The plan was to allow him the time to sit and learn, but the Bills only have themselves to blame for this predicament by not having a more established veteran QB on hand and investing more resources in the OL and receiving corps.  They instead went defense heavy in UFA and the draft while foolishly believing in Nathan Peterman as a viable caretaker bridge option. 

I agree. What I think is harsh is attributing poor play by him to age old flaws in his game. I think a lot of it comes from a lack of experience against pro defenses, poor supporting personnel and quite possibly bad coaching. I'm not saying that he doesn't have things to work on, but they would be much less prominent if he had a better situation.

[C.Biscuit97]

But isn’t the common thought that it’s easier than ever to play qb?  With the rules, lack of contact a defense can put on a qb, and a lot of similar college schemes, the league has never been more passer friendly. 

Just now, vincec said:

I agree. What I think is harsh is attributing poor play by him to age old flaws in his game. I think a lot of it comes from a lack of experience against pro defenses, poor supporting personnel and quite possibly bad coaching. I'm not saying that he doesn't have things to work on, but they would be much less prominent if he had a better situation.

But that’s on the people who just drafted him.  They have made some terrible personnel moves. 

[jr1]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, vincec said:

I agree. What I think is harsh is attributing poor play by him to age old flaws in his game. I think a lot of it comes from a lack of experience against pro defenses, poor supporting personnel and quite possibly bad coaching. I'm not saying that he doesn't have things to work on, but they would be much less prominent if he had a better situation.

 

We are pretty much saying the same thing. 

[goldenboy81]

2 minutes ago, jr1 said:

 

Hahahaha 1 of the funniest things ive ever seen on here

[atlbillsfan1975]

32 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

What I meant was that not reading plays at the line is what Allen has been doing all along, and it's why scouts call him "raw" and "not ready" and "further behind other QBs in the draft class."  Of course you can see his college weaknesses and project them on the NFL

 

He doesn't process the game anywhere near the same level as, for example, Josh Rosen or Darnold, and it's why he was labeled a project, most scouts had him as a 3rd round project, and why I was pissed off the moment they announced we took Allen.  

 

You can play the "it's early" game now, and for a while to come.

 

Eventually you'll see he doesn't have it.  Hang in there.

 

 

It was his second start in the NFL. Start number two. Please go watch Jim Kellys first year. Watch Wentz last year. Every rookie has good ones and bad ones. It’s part of the learning curve.

[SoCal Deek]

This isn't rocket science.  I guarantee you that if all I had to do all day was learn how to read a defense...I could do it.  The QB really only looks at a limited number of defensive players to take his read.  And the QB already knows what play he is trying to run, or the one or two options he can check to.  Not every play works every time....but with some amount of film and book study, Allen should be figure it out.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

...STILL sticking by Steve Young ( yup, HIM) saying it best...."more collegians fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the speed and complexity of the game"........better show up with solid fundamentals as far as reads, progressions, etc.....planning on learning from scratch at this level rarely if ever pans out IMO...........

 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

This isn't rocket science.  I guarantee you that if all I had to do all day was learn how to read a defense...I could do it.  The QB really only looks at a limited number of defensive players to take his read.  And the QB already knows what play he is trying to run, or the one or two options he can check to.  Not every play works every time....but with some amount of film and book study, Allen should be figure it out.

I agree that Allen should figure it out.  You guaranteeing you could do it gave me a much needed laugh.

[Cripple Creek]

29 minutes ago, jr1 said:

 

?

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

What I meant was that not reading plays at the line is what Allen has been doing all along, and it's why scouts call him "raw" and "not ready" and "further behind other QBs in the draft class."  Of course you can see his college weaknesses and project them on the NFL

 

He doesn't process the game anywhere near the same level as, for example, Josh Rosen or Darnold, and it's why he was labeled a project, most scouts had him as a 3rd round project, and why I was pissed off the moment they announced we took Allen.  

 

You can play the "it's early" game now, and for a while to come.

 

Eventually you'll see he doesn't have it.  Hang in there.

 

 

You made sense until you said most scouts had him graded as a 3rd rounder.  I wasn't an Allen fan going into the draft but not one of us here has any clue where team scouts had him graded.

 

Oddly enough even the internet and tv "scouts" have changed their mind on where they had him graded depending on the week.  Last week he was clearly the most talented qb in the draft.  This week he was a raw prospect.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

I thought it was pretty straight forward; the key is Allen should have known Shady would take a defender with him to the right side of the ball.  That leaves a mis-match on the left side of the ball, and that becomes the weak link in the protection.  Which is exactly how the play unfolded. 

 

But Allen doesn't look left at the most vulnerable area, b/c he's not reading the defense or thinking through the game of football on this level.  This is nothing new for him and one of his longstanding weaknesses.

 

This is what Tom Brady called, a few years ago, a "wasted play" meaning the play was over before it began because the QB didn't see what was about to happen.

The good/great QBs like Brady don't have wasted plays, or hardly any, b/c they have a very high football IQ and "see" what's going to happen pre-snap and adjust accordingly.

 

Remember, the QB has a huge advantage in that he knows what the offense is going to do and he has the ability to alter the play before it happens!  

The D is just reacting to what unfolds in front of them.

 

Defenses are not always just reacting. Sometimes they are attacking regardless of what the offensive play call is. They sometimes get burned because of it, and sometimes make big plays from it.

 

Also, offenses run option routes a lot, essentially reacting to what the defense does and changing routes. RPO is like that as well.

 

So there is a lot of acting and reacting on both sides of the ball.

[Solomon Grundy]

52 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The HOFer speaketh!!! Sorry Mr. career backup

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

I thought it was pretty straight forward

 

You probably know better than Kurt Warner. And Tony Romo for that matter.

[oldmanfan]

Interesting takes from two guys that played the position.  I have to admit I tend to place more credence with Warner, because I can't get the image of Orlavski running out of the end zone to lose a game out of my mind.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Well it’s probable everybody is a little right here:

 

1. Allen was not a stand out player in college. He had 600 pass attempts in college, Baker Mayfield had 1,500. 

 

2. After listening to Beane describe why he took Allen, it sounded frankly like Doug Whaley and EJ Manuel. They loved his size and arm. They wanted their own Cam Newton. Beane specifically referenced “Cam Newton” by name in WGR interviews after the draft. Did he mention how Allen actually threw a football with accuracy? No. He was picked on potential, not production (Mahomes) or winning (Watson) or polish (Rosen). 

 

3. Offensive personnel is among the worst in the league. Bills have fringe/journeyman starting all over: Mills, Duccasse, Bodine, old Whaley leftovers: Clay, McCoy, and the worst set of WRs in the league. Zay Jones, #37 overall, is a bust. Ruben Foster is your #2 WR along with Andre Holmes. 

 

4. Not every analyst “hated” Josh Allen. But I think it is safe to say the consensus around him was that him succeeding would fly in the face of most analytics we have today to measure QBs. His overall accuracy was poor, his stats were pedestrian, he didn’t have a great record against anyone good in college. 

 

5. Your coach is Sean McDermott. The same guy who when hired said his offense has to be physical in the run game because we play in snowy Buffalo. Any shock more wasn’t done to help this offense? Time to raid practice squads. 

 

I’m not surprised. 

 

The Bills made a poop sandwich on offense and are now eating it. 3/4 games despite who plays QB the Bills can hardly pick up a first down. Now, with how much you invested in Allen (#12, #53, #56 and Glenn) and the pile of dead money you are eating this year, you have to go all in this coming offseason to see if he can be the answer. 

 

It would not not be shocking to me if Allen keeps making the same mistakes over and over again. 

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Troll Toll]

My intuition while listening to Dan was basically what it turned out Kurt said. I don’t have any real knowledge of this stuff, but I questioned why Dan would make those assumptions. I will agree with Dan’s general point though, that Allen needs to have a plan pre-snap. I don’t think it is that complicated, but it will take time for him to learn. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree that Allen should figure it out.  You guaranteeing you could do it gave me a much needed laugh.

Old Man...there’s zero chance I could throw the ball like an NFL QB but I’m pretty sure both you and I could be taught how to read a defense!  Heck, almost everyone on here believes they can. Just read the All 22 thread each and every week.

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Old Man...there’s zero chance I could throw the ball like an NFL QB but I’m pretty sure both you and I could be taught how to read a defense!  Heck, almost everyone on here believes they can. Just read the All 22 thread each and every week.

Steve Young says reading defenses is the biggest change guys go through coming into the pros.  I think I'll go with his thoughts on it

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Steve Young says reading defenses is the biggest change guys go through coming into the pros.  I think I'll go with his thoughts on it

You do realize that’s not the same thing as saying YOU couldn’t do it...right?  It just means it’s a new thing for college guys to learn.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You do realize that’s not the same thing as saying YOU couldn’t do it...right?  It just means it’s a new thing for college guys to learn.

Sure.  I'll bet you're pretty smart.  I've done pretty good academically myself.  I think we could look at film and figure it out.  But in a stadium with 50,000 hostile fans screaming? Large mean guys wanting to tear your head off a couple yards in front of you?  Moving around all over to try and confuse you? And about 20-30 seconds to figure out blocking, etc. and know exactly where to go with the ball?  Maybe not.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Sure.  I'll bet you're pretty smart.  I've done pretty good academically myself.  I think we could look at film and figure it out.  But in a stadium with 50,000 hostile fans screaming? Large mean guys wanting to tear your head off a couple yards in front of you?  Moving around all over to try and confuse you? And about 20-30 seconds to figure out blocking, etc. and know exactly where to go with the ball?  Maybe not.

I’m betting we’re both pretty smart. I’ll bet you drive all the time on crowded highways, at speeds you never thought possible, with cars darting in and out of lines, all the while listening to the radio, looking at a map, and having a conversation with other people in the car. Could you do it at first? No, but after a bit of repetition and practice you do it every day without even consciously giving it a second thought! Trust in The Force. ?

[Jerome007]

Here we again with people projecting Allen will be a bust by inventing scouting reports or focusing on the few bad ones. From what *I* recall, he was projected from a 3r rounder all the way to be the VERY FIRST PICK. Some say he went down to 7th because of his "rap lyric tweets" that contained the N word that came up just before the draft, some "experts" saying the Bills made a steal. And overall, while his projected ranking was all over the place, a general consensus placed him among the top 4 QBs with Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen. 

 

So... none of us know if he will be a a star, journeyman or bust yet. But stop saying the scouts were seeing him so dimly when it clearly was not the case. He was seen as the most raw for sure but still projected to go very high by most. "Experts" often have it wrong anyway but overall he had a very good reputation coming in.

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But isn’t the common thought that it’s easier than ever to play qb?  With the rules, lack of contact a defense can put on a qb, and a lot of similar college schemes, the league has never been more passer friendly. 

But that’s on the people who just drafted him.  They have made some terrible personnel moves. 

silly boy.
the transition for college  QBs is more dramatic than ever. maybe most intense position to develop. can go any way depending on a variety of circumstance. One of the traditional fears, and I  subscribe to it ,is a semblance of pass protection is key, Consistent  and repeatable. even if middling will develop a young QB well enough 

our line is often a box of chocolates. and we know what that means don't we ?

 Allen has plenty of potential as long as he does not get killed. I mean actually killed on the field. he has the mindset and heart to will himself to success.
 

Edited October 3, 2018 by 3rdand12

[PlayoffsPlease]

21 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m betting we’re both pretty smart. I’ll bet you drive all the time on crowded highways, at speeds you never thought possible, with cars darting in and out of lines, all the while listening to the radio, looking at a map, and having a conversation with other people in the car. Could you do it at first? No, but after a bit of repetition and practice you do it every day without even consciously giving it a second thought! Trust in The Force. ?

imagine half of the other drivers were attempting to force you to crash or at least run off the road.  Now you have a better analogy. 

[billspro]

The more important thing is how he grows from this game. The Titans are going to throw a lot of blitzes at him this week. Hopefully we see improvement.