RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Wayne Arnold]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Shouldn't you add Tyrod to this list? Seriously.

 

Good point.

[Jauronimo]

29 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Otherwise, the pick is a failure and Beane and McDermott are dead men walking and unlikely to last more than three more years here.

 

McDermott passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson last season in order to add ammo to the 2018 Draft and get "their guy". Watson is a star in the making and the Chiefs (a well-run organization) allowed a very good veteran QB coming off a career year to go in order to hand the keys to their franchise to Mahomes.

 

Last night, McDermott and Beane passed on Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson and the rest of the 2018 QB draft class in order to acquire a quarterback that finished 82nd in college football in passer rating playing in the Mountain West conference. Not to mention giving up picks 53 and 56 for his services.

 

"Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is supposedly running an Erhardt-Perkins system that typically asks a quarterback to win with mental processing, decision-making and ball placement from the pocket. None of those things are Allen's strengths, at all. Daboll will likely dumb things down some, but what I expect from the system isn't a great fit for Allen."

 

My thoughts on how Beane is doing in a nutshell (from Jon Ledyard)...

 

That was a quick honeymoon.  Giving up on the process after one Beane draft? 

[TheElectricCompany]

29 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

"Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is supposedly running an Erhardt-Perkins system that typically asks a quarterback to win with mental processing, decision-making and ball placement from the pocket.

 

Every offensive scheme in the NFL values these traits. 

Daboll is not unique. 

[starrymessenger]

I understand that Rosen's durability is an issue but Mayfield has had a couple of concussions and Allen broke his collarbone in seven places, hurt his shoulder last year missing time etc...Rosen looks a little goofy perhaps but he's a big boy too. I don't think there is much to justify the inference that Rosen is necessarily made of glass and Allen is made to last forever. The truth could wind up being very different. 

I think it's at least possible that Allen over Rosen was a "blue-collar cultural fit" based decision. If that's true it was a mistake IMO and it also does not give the fanbase sufficient credit. And I hope that McCoach and the rest of the brass were not intimidated by an opinionated young man. Aaron Rodgers was exactly like that and he made them pay.

I prefer to think that their philosophy is that the draft is all about projection so they assign a lot of importance to physical talent, athleticism and measurables. I'm not sure that thinking necessarily applies with the same force to all position groups, especially QB, but hey, no question he looks like Tarzan. 

If it turns out that these guys are unable to evaluate QBs any better than the last crew they will travel the same well worn path out of town and they will have earned it. If they got it right they will be credited as geniuses. It's a bottom line performance based business.

Edited April 27, 2018 by starrymessenger

[MJS]

So what if those guys all win 4 Superbowls but Allen only wins 3. Is that still a failure?

[Hebert19]

31 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Otherwise, the pick is a failure and Beane and McDermott are dead men walking and unlikely to last more than three more years here.

 

McDermott passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson last season in order to add ammo to the 2018 Draft and get "their guy". Watson is a star in the making and the Chiefs (a well-run organization) allowed a very good veteran QB coming off a career year to go in order to hand the keys to their franchise to Mahomes.

 

Last night, McDermott and Beane passed on Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson and the rest of the 2018 QB draft class in order to acquire a quarterback that finished 82nd in college football in passer rating playing in the Mountain West conference. Not to mention giving up picks 53 and 56 for his services.

 

"Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is supposedly running an Erhardt-Perkins system that typically asks a quarterback to win with mental processing, decision-making and ball placement from the pocket. None of those things are Allen's strengths, at all. Daboll will likely dumb things down some, but what I expect from the system isn't a great fit for Allen."

 

My thoughts on how Beane is doing in a nutshell (from Jon Ledyard)...

 

No.  Since the plan was just quarterback.  It was to shed salary and build for future.  

[HappyDays]

Eh I think if he's better than half of them that would be enough. Would I bet on that? Nope. Beane's job is on the line with this selection, that's for sure.

 

10 minutes ago, jjmac said:

We made the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor last year.  Now we have better throwers in the QB room, and people are complaining.

 

You absolutely cannot say this with certainty yet.

Edited April 27, 2018 by HappyDays

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html

 

QB rating is meaningless.  Lets just build around Taylor because his top 10 QB rating.

 

"QB rating is meaningless" guy came later than I expected.

.

"Stats are for losers!"

[Rob's House]

By this logic the Jim Kelly pick was a failure because he wasn't better than Dan Marino.

[Dan]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I'll go back to my response in the "What if Beane trades up for Allen with Rosen still there?" thread:

 

 

I stand by that. I personally wanted Rosen, but what do I know. Maybe the health concerns were too much.

 

We moved up and Rosen was still an option and we picked "our guy" so I'll back it. For now.

 

The biggest highlight last night for me was AZ jumping up to #10 and stealing Rosen from Miami!

 

 

Yep. Allen goes to AZ at 7 or 10, Rosen goes to Miami at 11, and we're stuck holding our dicks. Again. The trade up was the right move regardless of who we picked.

I'm not smart enough to know who's gonna be good or not.  But my first reaction was... why trade up to get a guy that most people were saying would be there at 12... that way the draft was going.   So I was upset about giving up the 2 picks more than selecting Allen.

 

But the way you break it down here makes a lot of sense.   I'm glad Beane made the moves to get the guy he wanted.  There's too much at stake if he doesn't fall and you're left without a seat at the dance.    So... yeah.  I think it worked out good ...assuming they picked the right guy.  lol 

[Bing Bong]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

The downfield pass falsehood. 

 

He threw a TON behind the LOS 

Really wanted Rosen, but I'm on the Allen  train now. Allen does seem to have good pocket presence even with a shoddy line which I don't think we really talk about as much as we should. A good pocket presence means the world to how your pass protection looks. Brady is the penultimate player in regard to that skill and can make the worst O line look fine.

 

Sort of a reverse tyrod skill who also made the line look better with his athleticism skill. The weak line we currently have could be a reason they went Allen over Rosen. 

 

he DOES need WRs tho absolutely. His play in that regard seems very dependent on having the skill position players.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

Um yeah.........no.

 

Watson has proven himself as a star in this league, after only one season mind you.

 

Uh huh. I seem to remember another mobile QB whose stellar rookie season ended with a knee injury. He must have went on to have a great career.

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Uh huh. I seem to remember another mobile QB whose stellar rookie season ended with a knee injury. He must have went on to have a great career.

I can think of two... Your point is taken. Great rookie seasons, even without injury, do not always translate into great careers

Edited April 27, 2018 by billsfan1959

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Where did I say I know Mahomes will be good?

 

I'm assuming that Rosen, Jackson and Rudolph will be better because they are superior quarterbacks. But you never know. Hence the thread.

And, again, why don't we let them play football before making proclamations?

And your sig about firing a GM and HC that in a year that was supposed to be terrible, and getting a team to the playoffs for the first time in 17 years?  Ridiculous.

[Buddo]

I don't like the pick. Not because I can't see the awesome potential of the kid, but because of the cost of doing it, and the likelihood it will take a year of sitting, before he is ready to start.

Unfortunately, there was no real middle ground. It was going to cost us to take one of the top 4 QBs, irrespective of who it was we wanted. I just wish we hadn't had to spend so much, on a guy who simply cannot be expected to start immediately.

 

A few relatively random thoughts on it follow, both good and bad.

 

I do admire the fact that the guy we picked, has the biggest ceiling as to how far he could develop. We definitely taking a shot.

 

I do like that Allen (supposedly) has very good retention of stuff, and is, according to his 'wonderlic', one of the more intelligent QBs of the bunch.

 

I did like the genuine delight on the kid's face, when he was announced as the pick, and the way he pretty much bounded up to the stage. That was good to see, tbh.

 

I don't like his accuracy numbers. Irrespective of talent around him(drops), or the lack of designed short throws, I fail to see that the numbers can be massaged enough, to get him where he needs to be accuracy wise. It has to be a major concern.

 

I suppose part of why I do dislike the pick, is that I would have taken Rosen over him, as I think Rosen is going to be able to start day 1, and being somewhat 'old school', I do expect top 10 picks, to be starting immediately. Tbh, I find it somewhat odd, that Rosen goes last of the 'big four', when he is the most ready to start, imho.

 

Hopefully, we develop the kid in the right way, and actually put no pressure on him to start - although I do expect him to put his best foot forward in the TC competition at the position.

 

I'm sure fans will 'come around' to the pick, as the kid has so much arm talent, that they are bound to be 'wowed' by a throw or two - if fans could go overboard for Losman, I'm sure they will get behind Allen.

[Mat68]

7 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

"QB rating is meaningless" guy came later than I expected.

.

"Stats are for losers!"

There is no correlation between college QB rating at pro football success 0, none.

[formerlyofCtown]

14 hours ago, Dark said:

Why trade up for Allen?  He's gonna be a bust.

They don't know as much as you. After all they're just fans and you do it for a living.

[dave mcbride]

53 minutes ago, jkirchofer said:

I am certainly coming around to the pick. Last night I was pretty unhappy with it, but all we can really do is hope he puts it all together. Can't be any worse than what we have had, and if it works out we have our guy, and if not, then we try again in three years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model

 

[Roundybout]

 

Time to make myself hopeful. 

[HiddenInLight]

I went into the draft saying anybody but Allen.  After sleeping on it, I feel a little better.  He's our QB of the future for better or for worse.  On the bright side, he does do one thing we were all screaming at Tyrod to do, which is trust your receivers.  He throws those contested balls, and may shine with Benjamin on the roster.  In the mean time we have AJ McCarron on the roster to act as a bridge until he is ready to start, and hopefully he won't trip over a rubber mat and end his career.  At this point I'm willing to keep an open mind on our new QB.