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RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming


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1 hour ago, DC Greg said:

I don't have a good feeling about this one. To move up and give up 2 seconds, one of which is an early second, you have to be sure. I don't see how anyone can be sold on a mountain west conference QB who had huge question marks around accuracy. We probably could have stayed put and got this guy. Or, or you stay put, take BPA, and build your team with all those picks. There will be more QBs next year guys, and let's face it, there's a good chance we're picking high in that draft. 

 

I would have been fine with Allen had they stayed put. This seems like a "look at me" move from Beane who's trying to leave his mark on the franchise and make a big splash.

Both 2nd round picks were in the last 1/3 of the round - neither was early in the 2nd

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I am certainly coming around to the pick. Last night I was pretty unhappy with it, but all we can really do is hope he puts it all together. Can't be any worse than what we have had, and if it works out we have our guy, and if not, then we try again in three years.

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I’m very surprised that every mock draft and NFL scouting resource indicated that Josh Allen was going to be a tip top of the first round selection when he is such an absolutely terrible quarterback. 

 

Awful accuracy, terrible footwork, slow eyes, lack of anticipation and touch, failure at every level of the sport, bitter racist...

 

Very surprising that other teams were trying to trade up for him and that every scout and pundit mis-evaluated him by 7 full rounds. 

 

You really don’t see that every day. 

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Otherwise, the pick is a failure and Beane and McDermott are dead men walking and unlikely to last more than three more years here.

 

McDermott passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson last season in order to add ammo to the 2018 Draft and get "their guy". Watson is a star in the making and the Chiefs (a well-run organization) allowed a very good veteran QB coming off a career year to go in order to hand the keys to their franchise to Mahomes.

 

Last night, McDermott and Beane passed on Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson and the rest of the 2018 QB draft class in order to acquire a quarterback that finished 82nd in college football in passer rating playing in the Mountain West conference. Not to mention giving up picks 53 and 56 for his services.

 

"Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is supposedly running an Erhardt-Perkins system that typically asks a quarterback to win with mental processing, decision-making and ball placement from the pocket. None of those things are Allen's strengths, at all. Daboll will likely dumb things down some, but what I expect from the system isn't a great fit for Allen."

 

My thoughts on how Beane is doing in a nutshell (from Jon Ledyard)...

 

bills_decisions.thumb.jpg.273b89d484f8f8a21a8fde350c60c60c.jpg

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A thought on why Allen over Rosen:

 

Rosen was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, is already a wealthy guy and has a history of head injury. His father is a doctor. Is it a huge stretch to think that he gets popped in the head again and decides that he simply doesn’t need football?

 

That was always my biggest concern with Rosen. 

 

By all accounts, Allen NEEDS football. 

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One thing I've been thinking about with this Allen pick that kind of makes me wonder (well, numerous things do, but...) -

 

I thought the Bills had plugged their leaks. That's why I was pretty sure Allen wouldn't be the pick. Everyone and their brother thought the Bills wanted Allen. Albright even said Bills personnel were telling some teams that. 

 

I figured that with how secretive Beane and McDermott have been, I figured it had to be smoke screen. Obviously that was not the case. 

 

Now im left wondering if they still have leaks, or if Beane authorized them leaking that info on purpose for whatever reason. 

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There is little doubt that this draft was going to be a career definer for Beane. The good side? He made a couple of decisive moves with the draft currency he amassed. I like the belief and the willingness to go get those players, not just any players. That's great, and what the vast majority of fans on this board wanted him to do. The not so good ? The QB choice and the price paid took some worthwhile additions away from what is still a flawed team in many areas. Personally , I would have preferred staying put for Lamar Jackson and drafting a stud LB at say 12 . This would have preserved the two second rounders, that the team could use. I'd probably feel differently if the QB choice had been Rosen. It would have been safer and less likely to be criticized. Not everyone would agree, of course. 

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Ok, I have had a chance to calm down.  Admittedly, I did not study Allen much.  I didn't see him as a potential Bills pick.  I thought that Rosen was their guy from day one.  I have watch some video and read a bit more about him and a few things stick out:

 

1.  He is surprisingly mobile 

2.  He has been running for his life for the last 2 years behind the Wyoming O line, so that should serve him well with the current state of the Bills O line.

3.  He is huge

4.  He is creative, when the play breaks down, and most of them do, he guides traffic

5.  We will no longer see an 8 yard pass on 3rd and 10.  This guy never saw a downfield pass he didn't like.

6.  He does remind me of Big Ben in his ability to keep plays alive.

7.  He couldn't be more opposite than Tyrod Taylor

 

At this point,  I will give Beane the benefit of the doubt.  

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40 minutes ago, Peter said:

This has a good chance of going horribly wrong for the Bills.  There is no metric relating to playing QB that supports picking Josh Allen at the top of the draft and giving up everything that we did to get there.  

 

This is an interesting article that shows that, by choosing Allen, McBeane is not Billy Beane:


https://www.theringer.com/2018/3/26/17162670/nfl-draft-josh-allen-hype-vs-reality

 

Billy Beane:  "If the guy is such a great hitter, why doesn't he hit better?"

 

I really hope that I am wrong, but if Josh Allen is such a great QB prospect (and one that is worth everything we paid to acquire him), why has he not been a better QB (especially against competition in his own conference)?

 

McBeane will rise or fall based on this pick. A lot of coaches have had the hubris to think that they are such great coaches that they can transform a guy into something he is not (or has shown he can be).

 

Again, I really hope I am wrong . . . .

 

On the plus side, the kid seems to have embraced being a Buffalo Bill, is hard working and appreciative, and (according to Eddie Yarbrough) a great teammate. 

 

Agreed.  For those of you with short memories or not old enough, this is really no different from Thurman's reaction after each team passed over him.  This is repeated time and time again.

 

This.

 

Why even have an analytics department if you're going to throw analytics totally out the window when decision time comes?

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9 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

Sounds like you should go root for Arizona, KC, Houston or Baltimore then.

 

Have to always laugh at that type of response!  "Go away, you're not thinking just like I am, I don't want to be around you, you can't possibly be a Bills fan because you're not a lemming, go away!"

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