Rumor: Trade up discussion with Giants

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

If there WAS another Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, the team sitting at #1 is not trading for ANY price.

 

Would you?

 

Imagine: you're the Bills of 2018, and somehow you are sitting there with the #1 overall pick. A guy that pretty much everyone is saying is the next Elway/Manning type prospect is sitting right there, ready to draft.

 

Are you trading that once in a lifetime type QB for 3 1st rounders? NO WAY!

 

So it's sort of moot. That's winning the lottery. But a guy doesn't have to be a generational, HOF type talent to be a great QB for your team.

 

 

Some of you guys are missing the point as all I said was a higher grade. I never said they had to be an Elway or Luck.

 

This is a very deep draft with a lot of talent. Shoot, I'd be happy to give up three first rounders or 5, 6 possible starters for a QB with say an 8.0 grade. 

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

All 4 of those QBs have clearly established themselves as top guys for several years. Palmer did it for two teams with a hissy fit in the middle.

[Foxx]

23 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

That list was all about the starting QB's for last year (2017) and not about past QB's. I haven't researched it but I'm pretty sure you don't NEED a top-five pick at QB to win the super bowl. ...

 

gotcha. i should have deduced that it was for last years starting qb's.

[TheFunPolice]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

Some of you guys are missing the point as all I said was a higher grade. I never said they had to be an Elway or Luck.

 

This is a very deep draft with a lot of talent. Shoot, I'd be happy to give up three first rounders or 5, 6 possible starters for a QB with say an 8.0 grade. 

 

 

 

Who is doing the grading? What if that person's evaluation is off?

 

I get what you're saying but I don't put a lot of stock in these grades

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

So never draft a QB high unless he's a once in a lifetime prospect, otherwise just take QBs in round 6 because of Tom Brady.  Thanks for your valuable contributions to the community here.

 

That is not what I said. Besides that, you are welcome 

[gobills1212]

25 minutes ago, K-9 said:

People need to better understand that even if we pay the price quoted in this thread, we STILL have picks in every round which makes it look like a traditional draft, anyway. And in a purportedly deep draft, this is the BEST opportunity to spend the capital on a QB while STILL being able to add pieces in the draft. No brainer from where I sit. Imo, the ONLY thing hindering a move up to 2 would be if McBean have ONE prospect CLEARLY ranked above all others and the rest are so closely rated and he knows a good prospect would fall. It's a question of their commitment to the prospect they have targeted. I can't see this deal being a hindrance to trying to go up and get him. 

Amen!! There are obviously 2 schools of thought (3 if there is a strict limit on capital used) both of which have merritt. Im not a throw caution to the wind type but given the context this is nothing like the Skins succeed or fail- give it a whirl!  IF they choose to trade up, the only downfall is if its a bust. Even then at least they went down w their guy rather than another JP type deal

Edited March 20, 2018 by gobills1212

[ndirish1978]

Draft picks are so overvalued. Sometimes I wish we could just ship 3 1st rounders out to a team for a proven franchise QB and be done with it. 

[#34fan]

Just now, Wayne Cubed said:

 

 5 years the Watkins trade of draft assests set the Bills so far back, they ended a 17 year playoff drought 3 years later.

 

??<——— I can do this game too

 

Why not credit the 6th round scrub QB that led us to the playoffs? -Because it doesn't suit your wacky point?

[Chuck Wagon]

13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Some of you guys are missing the point as all I said was a higher grade. I never said they had to be an Elway or Luck.

 

This is a very deep draft with a lot of talent. Shoot, I'd be happy to give up three first rounders or 5, 6 possible starters for a QB with say an 8.0 grade. 

 

 

 

Darnold is the highest graded QB since Luck.  Perhaps you just have a miss-understanding on how these "grades" work.

 

[billsfan5121]

This is my first post but I have been here since the demise of the BBMB.  I signed up just to try and understand this topic of drafting qb high by trading up to get our guy.  I don't understand what the issue is with trading up.

 

My question is this- If this is not the time to trade up and draft a qb, and you think we are better off using our picks to fill holes, when do you suggest we finally take a chance?  Is it best to just wait until we have a 3-13 season to mitigate the risk?  Would it be better to use our picks this year to collect talent and then push the decision down the road further?

 

I feel like this is what we have always done.  We just minimize the importance of the qb position and act like building a talented team is sufficient.  I don't understand this logic.  You draft the qb, and if you hit, you are a perennial contender.  You draft all the other positions, and you hit on all of them (not likely), then you are a contender for what, 4 to 5 years before you have to pay 6 players a new contract?  I feel like the Seahawks are a great example of how you cannot build a team and expect to keep them all around.  I understand they paid Wilson, but they had to pay Chancellor, Thomas, Sherman, Bennett, Wilson, Lynch at one point, Baldwin, etc.  It's much easier to build a consistent contender by finding your qb.

 

I feel like this is the time we have all been waiting for.  Not only that, but this is what the regime has been building towards all along (my opinion).  There is no better time than now to do this.  Maybe it costs quite a bit of capital, but that what we have been accumulating it for, isn't it?  Now when the time comes, everyone wants to pick apart the qb class and say the top guys may not pan out.  That is the case across the board.  We could make 6 picks in the first three rounds and miss on some or all of them.  If we hit on them all, great, we get a few years of contending.  If we hit on the qb, we have a decade plus of contending.  I'll take that all day long. 

 

I am beyond tired of sitting around hoping our team is patched together enough to compete for a Wild Card birth. I am beyond tired of watching the Rodgers and Bradys of the league light up the scoreboard every week.  How many times did someone here comment last season that they watched the NE game, or a Pittsburgh game and say on here, "After watching them, I realized how far away we truly are from contending."   If you said that, why did you say that?  Did you say that because you thought Gilmore and Butler were great?  Was it Clay Matthews in GB?  Was it Shazier (good player) in Pittsburgh?  No.  You realized how far away we were because we don't have a qb that's in the same stratoshpere as those guys.

 

I'm done ranting now.  I just want a qb.  I don't personally care the cost.  You can call me out and say "If they trade the farm and he busts, you'll probably be here wanting everyone fired."  Nope.  I certainly won't.  I just want to take a shot at having a top prospect at qb.  Maybe he doesn't pan out.  But I can tell you that I will not lose a second of sleep knowing we swung for the fence, drafted Rosen or whoever, and he flopped while we missed out on a WR, DT, RT, RG, LB, or whatever. 
 

I just want to be relevant again.  This past season was great, and lifted a huge weight off this franchise and the fans.  But there's not one single person on this board who ever thought we had a chance past Jacksonville.  And that feeling sucks.  Just making the playoffs was our Super Bowl.  That's pathetic and we need to hope for better.  Maybe my opinion is wrong and that's why I'm not a GM of a professional sports team.  But I know the qb position is the most important position in all of sports, and you have to try and get one eventually.  You can't keep pushing it off like one is just gonna fall into our lap.  We have to be proactive and aggressive.  We set ourselves up for it.  Now go do it.

[Wayne Cubed]

2 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Why not credit the 6th round scrub QB that led us to the playoffs? -Because it doesn't suit your wacky point?

 

What?! Let’s try this again.

 

My point is about.... wait for it... DRAFT ASSETS, waisting draft assets didn’t cripple this franchise.

 

I’ve made my point, I’m done here.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Any time you have 70 rated potential starters at the top, it's a deep draft, at least on paper, which is all any of these prospects are. That said, there will be players in that 70 who bust, players on nobody's radar will become All Pros, and some will be exactly what's projected. 

 

 

There may be 70 players who can start but the problem is that it's very top heavy with talent at devalued positions.

 

Lot's of RB/guard/center/LB/non pass rushing DT starters....... which simply aren't that highly valued when it all comes down to it. 

 

The Bills have so many needs that they are well positioned to go BPA and get eventual starters into round 4 maybe.........but that speaks to them having huge weaknesses at those positions more than the strength of the draft.

 

Excellent draft for QB's at the top but very poor at the "other" money positions.......Pass Rusher/CB/WR/LT..............which IMO makes it not such a deep draft.

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

All 4 of those QBs have clearly established themselves as top guys for several years. Palmer did it for two teams with a hissy fit in the middle.

 

I'll give you Palmer but I can't give you the other ones. As a general point I don't know why everyone is obsessed with top 3 QBs. There is no debate that the top 3 guys in the NFL are Brady, Rodgers, and Brees and they were all picked well outside the top of the draft. This year is particularly weird because there are 6 QBs with 1st or early 2nd round grades. That's unheard of. We could get tremendous value selecting one of the lower 1st round guys while still having an extra 1st, 2 2nds, and 2 3rds to fill in the rest of the team. There is so much more to a team than the QB. We could fill a ton of holes, QB included, buy everyone is so sure about the top 3 picks that they're willing to give it all up for someone who has less than a 50% chance of being worth the trade up. That strategy makes no sense in this draft.

[Chicken Boo]

27 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

THIS YEARS QBs DON"T EVEN COME CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

a grade of 7.0 is a far cry from a 10.0. and Darnold is barely a 7.0

 

You act as if these grades are some exact science.

 

It's as subjective as they come.

[Augie]

27 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

THIS YEARS QBs DON"T EVEN COME CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

a grade of 7.0 is a far cry from a 10.0. and Darnold is barely a 7.0

 

Sorry, I skipped ahead and really don’t want to go thru 25 pages. I am NOT being snarky, just asking...are those your grades or someone else’s? 

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

Who is doing the grading? What if that person's evaluation is off?

 

I get what you're saying but I don't put a lot of stock in these grades

Well, one of them is Daniel Jeremiah a former NFL scout for three NFL teams Eagles, Browns, Ravens. There are other highly regarded NFL scouts, players who put these grades together and they are pretty accurate. 

 

This year teams are acting so desperate to get a top QB like the NY Jets moving from #6 to #3. It's like Bills fans are also getting desperate thinking that they will miss out.

 

There is only one QB graded at 7.0 and that is Darnold who will probably go #1 overall. Rosen has a grade of 6.1 because he has more baggage. Both Mayfield, Allen have grades of 6.0 and Jackson a 5.9. Why give up the farm and all the animals for a 6.1 when one of two 6.0s just might fall out of the top six. Mason Rudolph grades a 5.6. 

 

The only player I can see Buffalo trading up for is Darnold as the rest grade pretty close together. See what I'm saying at all? 

[formerlyofCtown]

It's for a WR.

Edited March 20, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you sell the farm for a QB and they don't win a Super Bowl or clearly establish themselves as a top 10 QB for several years I would consider that move a bust. If we already had the #1 or #2 pick I would be all for picking a QB. I'm cool with picking one at 12, or trading up a few spots. I am not willing to pay the same premium the Jets paid to get to #1 or #2 when recent history shows that is a losing proposition.

We just disagree on the losing proposition part. I think that you are 50/50 ish. I agree that not all of these guys will be great but some will. The percentages say that you are much more likely to find your QB there than anywhere else. The Bills have the assets to do it now and have planned on it. Every action that they have taken has suggested a move up for an elite QB prospect. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work and you swing again in a couple of years. You are WAY more likely to find a QB doing that than by throwing darts at the best available at the time of your picks.

 

FWIW, I don’t hate the idea of Lamar Jackson at 12. I just think it is a smarter strategy to pay the price using this year’s assets to get up and get the guy that you want. I’ve always been under the assumption that it is Josh Rosen.

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Sorry, I skipped ahead and really don’t want to go thru 25 pages. I am NOT being snarky, just asking...are those your grades or someone else’s? 

Go back a page. 

[RochesterRob]

21 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

All 4 of those QBs have clearly established themselves as top guys for several years. Palmer did it for two teams with a hissy fit in the middle.

  Yeah, but the teams in question to my knowledge did not give up multiple high round picks for them.  Makes a huge difference in my mind.

[formerlyofCtown]

9 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

No.

 

18 Years without a QB. 

we had QBs every year.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

we had QBs every year.

THOSE QB’s often made me sad.  

 

I hope we have better scouts than the other guys. Then we get a quarterback whisperer and need to make room for SB trophies! 

[HappyDays]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

FWIW, I don’t hate the idea of Lamar Jackson at 12. I just think it is a smarter strategy to pay the price using this year’s assets to get up and get the guy that you want. I’ve always been under the assumption that it is Josh Rosen

 

I think the price mentioned at the beginning of this thread is much lower than the Giants will actually ask for. The Colts got 3 2nd round picks and only moved down 3 spots. Moreover, those 2nds are all higher value than any 2nd round pick the Bills could offer. So we want to move up 10 spots, to an even higher value pick. In my mind that's gonna cost 2 extra 1sts (#22 and next year's), at least 2 2nds, and a 3rd or 4th. I might run the math to figure it out exactly based on what the Jets gave up but that's what I'm estimating. I have no interest in giving up that much even IF it's a 50/50 shot that we pick the right guy.

 

And as bad as the probability of successfully picking a top 3 QB is, that probability gets worse if you take out the 1st overalls and only count guys picked 2nd or 3rd. Take out Stafford, Luck, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Vick and what are you left with? Matt Ryan? But I'm supposed to think this draft is different? No way I'm giving up a ton when I look at the remaining list of 2nds and 3rds. No freaking way.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Well, one of them is Daniel Jeremiah a former NFL scout for three NFL teams Eagles, Browns, Ravens. There are other highly regarded NFL scouts, players who put these grades together and they are pretty accurate. 

 

This year teams are acting so desperate to get a top QB like the NY Jets moving from #6 to #3. It's like Bills fans are also getting desperate thinking that they will miss out.

 

There is only one QB graded at 7.0 and that is Darnold who will probably go #1 overall. Rosen has a grade of 6.1 because he has more baggage. Both Mayfield, Allen have grades of 6.0 and Jackson a 5.9. Why give up the farm and all the animals for a 6.1 when one of two 6.0s just might fall out of the top six. Mason Rudolph grades a 5.6. 

 

The only player I can see Buffalo trading up for is Darnold as the rest grade pretty close together. See what I'm saying at all? 

Jeremiah has Darnold as the #1 QB prospect the last 3 years. Rosen #3. Rosen is worth a trade up. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by TheTruthHurts

[Wayne Cubed]

20 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Well, one of them is Daniel Jeremiah a former NFL scout for three NFL teams Eagles, Browns, Ravens. There are other highly regarded NFL scouts, players who put these grades together and they are pretty accurate. 

 

This year teams are acting so desperate to get a top QB like the NY Jets moving from #6 to #3. It's like Bills fans are also getting desperate thinking that they will miss out.

 

There is only one QB graded at 7.0 and that is Darnold who will probably go #1 overall. Rosen has a grade of 6.1 because he has more baggage. Both Mayfield, Allen have grades of 6.0 and Jackson a 5.9. Why give up the farm and all the animals for a 6.1 when one of two 6.0s just might fall out of the top six. Mason Rudolph grades a 5.6. 

 

The only player I can see Buffalo trading up for is Darnold as the rest grade pretty close together. See what I'm saying at all? 

 

No offense, but those player grades are from Lance Zierlein and are in no way influenced by Daniel Jeremiah. It is his and his grade alone. 

 

So no, those aren’t Daniel Jeremiahs grades or a combination of other scouts. It is literally one guys opinion.

 

Lance Zierlein thinks Darnold is a 7.0 and now your going to ask, who’s Lance Zierlein.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Wayne Cubed

[formerlyofCtown]

9 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Oh no, what are we going to do at SAM linebacker, 3rd WR, backup DT and 3rd CB!  Way too many holes to get a franchise QB for the first time in 2 decades!

Almost agree except we need a WR 1.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Almost agree except we need a WR 1.

We have 1. He just needs to take the offseason seriously. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think the price mentioned at the beginning of this thread is much lower than the Giants will actually ask for. The Colts got 3 2nd round picks and only moved down 3 spots. Moreover, those 2nds are all higher value than any 2nd round pick the Bills could offer. So we want to move up 10 spots, to an even higher value pick. In my mind that's gonna cost 2 extra 1sts (#22 and next year's), at least 2 2nds, and a 3rd or 4th. I might run the math to figure it out exactly based on what the Jets gave up but that's what I'm estimating. I have no interest in giving up that much even IF it's a 50/50 shot that we pick the right guy.

 

And as bad as the probability of successfully picking a top 3 QB is, that probability gets worse if you take out the 1st overalls and only count guys picked 2nd or 3rd. Take out Stafford, Luck, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Vick and what are you left with? Matt Ryan? But I'm supposed to think this draft is different? No way I'm giving up a ton when I look at the remaining list of 2nds and 3rds. No freaking way.

That’s not what it is going to cost. The Giants are picking 2 then. The Bills can get there for 12, 22, and 2 of 53, 56 & 65 plus a 2nd, 3rd or 4th next year. It will be those 5 picks or it isn’t happening. The math has already been done on here. The Bills would be paying a premium at those numbers (not as high of a premium as the Jets). No one else can come close to that package.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...just a hunch, but I still don't see McBeane going "all in" with draft capital for ONE player (QB).......but who knows, so speculation continues....

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

No offense, but those player grades are from Lance Zierlein and are in no way influenced by Daniel Jeremiah. It is his and his grade alone. 

 

So no, those aren’t Daniel Jeremiahs grades or a combination of other scouts.

 

 

Darnold is 4rd overall at 7.0. Barkley is #1 at 7.4,  Nelson is 7.3, and Chubb is 7.3. 

[#34fan]

4 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

What?! Let’s try this again.

 

My point is about.... wait for it... DRAFT ASSETS, waisting draft assets didn’t cripple this franchise.

 

 

 Who ever said it did?

 

The only thing crippled here, are your reading comprehension skills. 

 

The Bills are in a very good spot to get some QUALITY NFL starters on both sides of the ball... I don't think we should abandon that position for a complete uncertainty at QB.

 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, #34fan said:

 

 Who ever said it did?

 

The only thing crippled here, are your reading comprehension skills. 

 

The Bills are in a very good spot to get some QUALITY NFL starters on both sides of the ball... I don't think we should abandon that position for a complete uncertainty at QB.

 

Who at the premier positions - DE, LT, WR, and CB - are going to be available at our slots? It's a bad year for DE, WR, and LT. I don't know about CB, but we shouldn't be drafting CB anyway. 

[Wayne Cubed]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Darnold is 4rd overall at 7.0. Barkley is #1 at 7.4,  Nelson is 7.3, and Chubb is 7.3. 

 

Yea, according to Lance Zierlein.

[formerlyofCtown]

9 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Their are going to be a lot of teams with lots of cap room in 2019. The top FA still have to want to play in the snow and weather conditions in Buffalo. If The Bean trades up in this draft with the Giants then he likes two QB's in this draft. So much draft capital to part with, it must suck to know if you choose wrong you killed and set the franchise back at least 3 years.

not really these are mostly extra picks.  We would only lose 1 pick after this year and have almost a full compliment of picks this year.  I'm fine either way if they feel they found their guy.  Or if they decide these guys aren't can't miss and decide not to trade up for that cost.  If they do it and get the real deal we will all love it.  If they do it and he is a bust almost all of the posters that were demanding it will call for their heads.

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Who at the premier positions - DE, LT, WR, and CB - are going to be available at our slots? It's a bad year for DE, WR, and LT. I don't know about CB, but we shouldn't be drafting CB anyway. 

  A good draft for DT, ILB, Interior OL, and outside the first round in RB.  The few WR out there could be had late first round or there about.

[Fadingpain]

10 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

Man, that IS a king's ransom to make that move...in fact, it would seem that would be enough to get to #1.....if the Giant's counter, I'd love to know how much more they think they can get....woof!

 

In many ways, for all of that, I'd rather stay put....wow.

Don't fall into the trap of assuming that it is automatic that we could covert all those assets into quality football players, if we do not make the move.

 

A high pick doesn't always equal a good football player.  

 

We'd probably be lucky to hit on half of those picks.

 

 

[Mat68]

Either Buffalo released this info so if/when they dont make a trade to 2 they can say offers were made and you need a partner to trade.  The other one is NYG are trying to encourage others to make offers to push up the price.  

[#34fan]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Who at the premier positions - DE, LT, WR, and CB - are going to be available at our slots? It's a bad year for DE, WR, and LT. I don't know about CB, but we shouldn't be drafting CB anyway. 

 

 Definitely NO to a CB...  I like D. Payne and Rashaan Evans personally...

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Either Buffalo released this info so if/when they dont make a trade to 2 they can say offers were made and you need a partner to trade.  The other one is NYG are trying to encourage others to make offers to push up the price.  

  I don't think that the Bills would release this to appease people.  

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Either Buffalo released this info so if/when they dont make a trade to 2 they can say offers were made and you need a partner to trade.  The other one is NYG are trying to encourage others to make offers to push up the price.  

Or some fella made a guess and claimed it was inside info.