House Money: Why Beane will trade up & you should be fine with it

[transplantbillsfan]

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick.

 

(Obviously all of this is merely opinion  ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board)

 

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

Our #22 pick was from KC last year in our trade down in the 1st where we acquired a guy in Tre White who probably should have been in the pro bowl conversation if not the pro bowl itself.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

We take those 4 picks, all "house money," and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

 

And before you say that cost isn't realistic, if you take a look at the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, I think you'll find different:

 

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. Now, perhaps it's going to take one more pick like a 2nd rounders next year to sweeten the pot a little, but maybe not. 

 

And that's in trading up to #2, which I believe is the highest we're going. Imagine if we wait until draft day and see a guy we want fall to #4 with the Browns or #6 with the Colts... it'll cost less and we'll still get our QB.

 

I'm a little baffled that some are complaining about the idea of giving up draft picks, even if it ensures McBeane can get "their guy." 

 

I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years.

 

We can do that in a very strong QB draft class... and we can do it with house money

Edited March 19, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Real McClappy]

If it's for their guy then go for it. I think we might trade up to 7-10 to get our guy though for a fraction.

 

Problem is we don't know who "the guy" is?

Edited March 20, 2018 by Real McCoy

[BillsFan130]

I think Bills will have to give up more than that to get to two.

 

I think it’s going to cost them both 1st this years and next years as well.

[John from Riverside]

I am absolutely fine with it......just get A qb out of the 1st round of this draft.

 

Now is the time.

[Punching Bag]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick.

 

(Obviously all of this is merely opinion  ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board)

 

I have heard a better apology from a robber holding me up and from the mechanics who dropped my car off a lift.

[OldTimer1960]

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

[BillsFanForever19]

I think the compensation is close. But we'll need to throw in a 2 next year. And I think it's going to have to be two separate trades. 12, 53, 65 to Indy for #6.

 

Then 6, 22, and a 2nd in '19 to NYG for #2.

Edited March 20, 2018 by BillsFanForever19

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

I think Bills will have to give up more than that to get to two.

 

I think it’s going to cost them both 1st this years and next years as well.

 

If Gettleman requires us to dip into the first or second round of next year's draft then Beane should tell him to shove it.

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think the complaint by most is not giving away picks to trade up but the improbability that we will be able to trade up and get the QB the bills want.  The jets-colts trade hurt.

[Chuck Wagon]

Even if it's all 5 picks between 12 - 65, the reality is you are likely giving up 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments.  The impact simply pales in comparison to getting a QB who is the face of the franchise for a decade or more.

[Punching Bag]

Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

Even if it's all 5 picks between 12 - 65, the reality is you are likely giving up 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments.  The impact simply pales in comparison to getting a QB who is the face of the franchise for a decade or more.

 

The chance of drafting a QB who MAY or MAY NOT be the face of the franchise for a decade.  

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

Even if it's all 5 picks between 12 - 65, the reality is you are likely giving up 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments.  The impact simply pales in comparison to getting a QB who is the face of the franchise for a decade or more.

You failed to recognize that there is a strong likelihood that whomever you trade up for might be a decent starter, but is not a transcendent player who can single-handedly carry a team to success.  The likelihood of finding THAT guy is very low no matter how much you give up.

[aristocrat]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick.

 

(Obviously all of this is merely opinion  ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board)

 

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

Our #22 pick was from KC last year in our trade down in the 1st where we acquired a guy in Tre White who probably should have been in the pro bowl conversation if not the pro bowl itself.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

We take those 4 picks, all "house money," and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

 

And before you say that cost isn't realistic, if you take a look at the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, I think you'll find different:

 

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. Now, perhaps it's going to take one more pick like a 2nd rounders next year to sweeten the pot a little, but maybe not. 

 

And that's in trading up to #2, which I believe is the highest we're going. Imagine if we wait until draft day and see a guy we want fall to #4 with the Browns or #6 with the Colts... it'll cost less and we'll still get our QB.

 

I'm a little baffled that some are complaining about the idea of giving up draft picks, even if it ensures McBeane can get "their guy." 

 

I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years.

 

We can do that in a very strong QB draft class... and we can do it with house money

 

The problem is the jets overpaid by 30 percent based on your value chart so we need to give the giants 3500 points so you’re looking at next years First and probably second as well.  

 

This would be the most draft picks ever given for a player in nfl history 

[Fetou]

The Bills traded everything of significant value that they had, other than Tre'Davious White and to a lesser extent LeSean McCoy. This is not house money. The Bills sold the farm for this draft in a manner of speaking.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Fetou

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You failed to recognize that there is a strong likelihood that whomever you trade up for might be a decent starter, but is not a transcendent player who can single-handedly carry a team to success.  The likelihood of finding THAT guy is very low no matter how much you give up.

 

 

I completely recognize that.  The reward is worth the risk.

 

The possibility also exists we keep all 5 picks and we draft 5 disappointments.  Any draft pick is a risk.

[John from Riverside]

9 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

If Gettleman requires us to dip into the first or second round of next year's draft then Beane should tell him to shove it.

That is going to happen......we are going to have to give up 3 number 1's to make this happen......

 

 

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

That is going to happen......we are going to have to give up 3 number 1's to make this happen......

 

Then it had better not happen. That would be highway robbery.

[Senth]

Really take your pick what QB from this group would be worth it?

Seriously which one.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

I think the complaint by most is not giving away picks to trade up but the improbability that we will be able to trade up and get the QB the bills want.  The jets-colts trade hurt.

It's the opposite.  They know they have to move ahead of 3 to get their guy and I suspect they've known that all along

[swnybillsfan]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You failed to recognize that there is a strong likelihood that whomever you trade up for might be a decent starter, but is not a transcendent player who can single-handedly carry a team to success.  The likelihood of finding THAT guy is very low no matter how much you give up.

even if he is not a hall of famer or an all pro, he could be a top ten qb. and a top ten qb would be a wonderful thing to have. i just don't want to watch any more games where it looks like we are not even playing the same sport as the rest of the league. here's to hoping! 

[Real McClappy]

5 minutes ago, Senth said:

Really take your pick what QB from this group would be worth it?

Seriously which one.

Almost all the top 5 QB's pretty much grade the exact same.  We have zero clue on which one we want, how can we even talk about trading up without knowing? That is what I was getting at earlier. We have no clue who "the guy" is?

 

Only ? I wish I could have answered from Beane.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Real McCoy

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I don’t care what we give up. Get to 2 and get a qb for once

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

 

But if the house desperately needs a QB....

 

....and you have a chance......

[Bills Freak]

While giving up so many picks to gamble on a QB is a tough pill to swallow, if Beane & Co. truly get "THEIR" guy , it's worth it. I don't believe it's a "Ill take whomever I can get out of the Crowned Top 4. If not, sit back & build the best team you can. I believe we have to trust their process! All the moves & strategic signings seem to indicate a move up IMO.

[RochesterRob]

21 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

  You beat me to it.

[Bobby Hooks]

19 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

If Gettleman requires us to dip into the first or second round of next year's draft then Beane should tell him to shove it.

What do you want the Bills to do? I feel like you just want to complain about everything and shoot everyone else’s opinions down. 

 

Any ideas of what you’d like to see?

[RochesterRob]

29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The draft capital we'll give up is house money, even if it's all the way up to the Giants' #2 pick.

 

(Obviously all of this is merely opinion  ... I apologize for adding one more thread to a seemingly inundated and frustrated board)

 

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

Our #22 pick was from KC last year in our trade down in the 1st where we acquired a guy in Tre White who probably should have been in the pro bowl conversation if not the pro bowl itself.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

We take those 4 picks, all "house money," and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

 

And before you say that cost isn't realistic, if you take a look at the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, I think you'll find different:

 

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. Now, perhaps it's going to take one more pick like a 2nd rounders next year to sweeten the pot a little, but maybe not. 

 

And that's in trading up to #2, which I believe is the highest we're going. Imagine if we wait until draft day and see a guy we want fall to #4 with the Browns or #6 with the Colts... it'll cost less and we'll still get our QB.

 

I'm a little baffled that some are complaining about the idea of giving up draft picks, even if it ensures McBeane can get "their guy." 

 

I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years.

 

We can do that in a very strong QB draft class... and we can do it with house money

  The Jets trade show that the top picks are bringing a good premium over the charts' stated values.

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, Bobby Hooks said:

What do you want the Bills to do? I feel like you just want to complain about everything and shoot everyone else’s opinions down. 

 

Any ideas of what you’d like to see?

 

I want to not give up both the present and future for a quarterback that is not even likely to work out anyway.

 

Bills have more than enough capital in the 2018 draft to move up all the way to #2. If Gettleman requires a first-rounder next year as well, then he can take a hike.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I view this as the most important draft we've seen since maybe 1983 because we know with almost 100% certainty that the intent is to draft the guy who's going to be our QB for the next 10-15+ years.

That's a real leap.

[Steve Billieve]

14 minutes ago, Fetou said:

The Bills traded everything of significant value that they had, other than Tre'Davious White and to a lesser extent LeSean McCoy. This is not house money. The Bills sold the farm for this draft in a manner of speaking.

 

Yea, and we're paying a ridiculous amount of money to players not on our roster.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

 

Yea, and we're paying a ridiculous amount of money to players not on our roster.

Beane explained it.  He wants to clear all the dead cap this year.  Next year their cap amount will be huge.

[RochesterRob]

18 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

I completely recognize that.  The reward is worth the risk.

 

The possibility also exists we keep all 5 picks and we draft 5 disappointments.  Any draft pick is a risk.

  The feeling is that there is around 70 prospects that may very well turn into quality starters sooner than later.

[Bobby Hooks]

7 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I want to not give up both the present and future for a quarterback that is not even likely to work out anyway.

 

Bills have more than enough capital in the 2018 draft to move up all the way to #2. If Gettleman requires a first-rounder next year as well, then he can take a hike.

Ideally sure. But this is the draft we’ve been loading up for and there are a few good options. 

 

You pass now and you’ll be chasing that qb in years without the kind of ammo we have now, and in more questionable qb drafts. 

 

It sucks we may be forced to give up a bit more than we would have liked but we’ve gotten pretty favorable deals lately. You can’t win them all. 

 

We’re certainly not going to be able to move 9 spots with a backup LT again. 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Bobby Hooks

[4merper4mer]

10 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I don’t care what we give up. Get to 2 and get a qb for once

Exactly.  As long as we trade up it will work.  Trade up to 2 for Lalulueletta because he has a cool name.  As long as we draft a QB early we're good.

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  The feeling is that there is around 70 prospects that may very well turn into quality starters sooner than later.

 

No one has ever drafted a bust thinking they were going to be a bust.

[Meatplow]

33 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

 

If you have a 1 in 4 chance to win the f***ing jackpot you most certainly DO buy more scratch-offs!

[Gigs]

Is one guy worth 4 tho? That’s what Beane & Co. need to decide. 

[Zerovoltz]

I think many of you don't understand the gravity of the Jets trade up to 3.  The 2 isn't available.  The Giants are keeping it and taking a QB.  Eli is just about toast.  The 2019 QB draft class is TRASH.  There is no way to know where the Giants will pick next year etc.  The Giants are NOT one draft pick away from winning anything.  The best thing they can do with the pick they have is get the NEXT franchise QB.  They are hard to find.  You don't pass them when you can get them and you need one.  The 2 is not available.  1. Cleveland Darnold. 2. Giants Rosen. 3 Jets Mayfield.  Bills trade up to 9 with San Francisco to fend off the Arizona Cardinals and your next franchise QB in Buffalo will in fact be Josh Allen.

[Meatplow]

1 minute ago, Gigs said:

Is one guy worth 4 tho? That’s what Beane & Co. need to decide. 

 

If he locks up the most important position in football for the next 10-15 years?  I would have to say yes.  Taking into consideration the last 20 years of this franchise of course.

 

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

No one has ever drafted a bust thinking they were going to be a bust.

  And that is true all the way to the top.  The fact is any player can bust and that should be factored in as far as risk goes in mortgaging the farm.   Some people act as though they have some sort of bust detector to head problems off which is hilarious.