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House Money: Why Beane will trade up & you should be fine with it


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Just now, Zerovotlz said:

I think many of you don't understand the gravity of the Jets trade up to 3.  The 2 isn't available.  The Giants are keeping it and taking a QB.  Eli is just about toast.  The 2019 QB draft class is TRASH.  There is no way to know where the Giants will pick next year etc.  The Giants are NOT one draft pick away from winning anything.  The best thing they can do with the pick they have is get the NEXT franchise QB.  They are hard to find.  You don't pass them when you can get them and you need one.  The 2 is not available.  1. Cleveland Darnold. 2. Giants Rosen. 3 Jets Mayfield.  Bills trade up to 9 with San Francisco to fend off the Arizona Cardinals and your next franchise QB in Buffalo will in fact be Josh Allen.

The #2 not being available is pure speculation as is all the thinking at this point.

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1 minute ago, Zerovotlz said:

I think many of you don't understand the gravity of the Jets trade up to 3.  The 2 isn't available.  The Giants are keeping it and taking a QB.  Eli is just about toast.  The 2019 QB draft class is TRASH.  There is no way to know where the Giants will pick next year etc.  The Giants are NOT one draft pick away from winning anything.  The best thing they can do with the pick they have is get the NEXT franchise QB.  They are hard to find.  You don't pass them when you can get them and you need one.  The 2 is not available.  1. Cleveland Darnold. 2. Giants Rosen. 3 Jets Mayfield.  Bills trade up to 9 with San Francisco to fend off the Arizona Cardinals and your next franchise QB in Buffalo will in fact be Josh Allen.

  Some people prefer the comfort of living in denial.  This way they can ignore what the Giants and other teams are most likely to do.

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33 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

The problem is the jets overpaid by 30 percent based on your value chart so we need to give the giants 3500 points so you’re looking at next years First and probably second as well.  

 

This would be the most draft picks ever given for a player in nfl history 

 

The Jets very well might have taken us out of the running for a trade up to #2. They gave up ridiculous value and the Giants will use that as the floor. To move to #2 we'd probably have to give up both 1sts, both 2nds, and next year's 1st. The Colts got three 2nd round picks to move down 3 spots. I personally have no interest in giving up a ton more than that for a 50/50 shot at best.

 

Now that all changes if we trade up a few more spots, like the rumored Hughes to Tampa Bay trade. That would put us in position to make the move solely with the picks we've accumulated through other moves. I'd have no problem with that. If we get to #7 I could see us getting to #2 with a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

Edited by HappyDays
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Just now, Steve Billieve said:

 

Pretty sure in 2019 we're still paying Cardale Jones, Wood, Glenn, Darius, Ragland

 

and in 2020 Glenn, Darius, 

It may not be all the dead cap, but I do know in his press conference and in the MMQB article this morning he talked about wanting to take a big hit this year to clear the dead cap money.

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1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  That is one enormous "if."

 

Price you pay to play.  That's 10-15 years of being competitive at that position and 10-15 years of 1st round picks that we can use to "fill other positions of need".

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21 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Ideally sure. But this is the draft we’ve been loading up for and there are a few good options. 

 

You pass now and you’ll be chasing that qb in years without the kind of ammo we have now, and in more questionable qb drafts. 

 

It sucks we may be forced to give up a bit more than we would have liked but we’ve gotten pretty favorable deals lately. You can’t win them all. 

 

We’re certainly not going to be able to move 9 spots with a backup LT again. 

 

 

Chances are the best quarterback to come out of this draft aren't even one of the "big four."

 

I'm confident that Beane is smart enough to not allow the Giants to hold us hostage.

 

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Jets very well might have taken us out of the running for a trade up to #2. They gave up ridiculous value and the Giants will use that as the floor. To move to #2 we'd probably have to give up both 1sts, both 2nds, and next year's 1st. The Colts got three 2nd round picks to move down 3 spots. I personally have no interest in giving up a ton more than that for a 50/50 shot at best.

 

Now that all changes if we trade up a few more spots, like the rumored Hughes to Tampa Bay trade. That would put us in position to make the move solely with the picks we've accumulated through other moves. I'd have no problem with that. If we get to #7 I could see us getting to #2 with a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

 

That's the thing - I can't see Giants trading all the way down to 12. Bills still have work to do before they can even execute a trade with the Giants if they wanted to. They need to trade up to 6 or 7 first.

 

 

Edited by Wayne Arnold
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51 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I am absolutely fine with it......just get A qb out of the 1st round of this draft.

 

Now is the time.

Nope

 get THE QB. 

 a QB is a waste of capitol.

Sure hope Bills do not need to get to 2 to do it though.

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3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Chances are the best quarterback to come out of this draft aren't even one of the "big four."

 

I'm confident that Beane is smart enough to not allow the Giants to hold us hostage.

 

That's the thing - I can't see Giants trading all the way down to 12. Bills still have to work to do before they can even execute a trade with the Giants if they wanted to. They need to trade up to 6 or 7 first.

I still think Giant would be foolish not  to get their Future QB from this draft if they see the Guy.

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13 minutes ago, Meatplow said:

 

If you have a 1 in 4 chance to win the f***ing jackpot you most certainly DO buy more scratch-offs!

But is that a Million dollar Jackpot or a $100 jackpot?

 

No Qb in this draft is a lock to be Manning/Luck/Brady/Brees

 

its more likely they could all max out as the next Winston or Marriotta

Are you happy giving up almost the entire first half of your draft to move up to get Winston, Marriotta, Bortles or Trubisky?

Just because the QB is the best QB in his draft class it doesn't mean they are worth mortgaging the future over.

Just because the Bills haven't had a franchise QB in a long time and just like every other team, wants one, doesn't mean giving up a boatload of picks to get one this year will mean they have some force to be reckoned with at QB for 10-15 years

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So if all of those picks are House Money and expendable then take this approach with the draft:

 

#12 Lamar Jackson
#22 Mason Rudolph
#53 Luke Falk
#56 Kyle Lauletta

 

It's the same net result with 0 positon player help.  Bet on the field as none of the Core 4 are can't miss prospects.

 

Edited by napmaster
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Just now, John from Riverside said:

Sure.....which QB is THE qb?

 

Cuz we dont even know that for sure

Exactly.

 But Beane sure as hell best know. and as he said clearly. too soon to call for them.

 A QB just because,  is crap imo

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Just now, 3rdand12 said:

I still think Giant would be foolish not  to get their Future QB from this draft if they see the Guy.

 

They have a crappy roster, a first-year GM, and only 5 draft picks. It would be more foolish to turn down an extra first, second, third and maybe more just because they fall in love with a guy that won't start for another year or two even if he turns out to be legit.

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3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I check all of the boxes....

 

image.png.4ff4cd4ed7951e4c5b5e90fd0d090813.png

did you send Valentines.

:wub:

 

:P

Just now, Wayne Arnold said:

 

They have a crappy roster, a first-year GM, and only 5 draft picks. It would be more foolish to turn down an extra first, second, third and maybe more just because they fall in love with a guy that won't start for another year or two even if he turns out to be legit.

disagree. perfect time to sit a guy

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

They have a crappy roster, a first-year GM, and only 5 draft picks. It would be more foolish to turn down an extra first, second, third and maybe more just because they fall in love with a guy that won't start for another year or two even if he turns out to be legit.

He is hardly a first year GM btw

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1 minute ago, apuszczalowski said:

But is that a Million dollar Jackpot or a $100 jackpot?

 

No Qb in this draft is a lock to be Manning/Luck/Brady/Brees

 

its more likely they could all max out as the next Winston or Marriotta

Are you happy giving up almost the entire first half of your draft to move up to get Winston, Marriotta, Bortles or Trubisky?

Just because the QB is the best QB in his draft class it doesn't mean they are worth mortgaging the future over.

Just because the Bills haven't had a franchise QB in a long time and just like every other team, wants one, doesn't mean giving up a boatload of picks to get one this year will mean they have some force to be reckoned with at QB for 10-15 years

 

No way to tell but this is the best shot we've had in a VERY long time

No QB is EVER a lock

 

I would give up ALL the draft picks to secure the only position this team hasn't been proficient at in 20 years

 

Time to try something new

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

What ever floats your boat...

 

giphy.gif

 

QBs are not allowed to get injured?

 

Really?...

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4 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

What ever floats your boat...

 

giphy.gif

 

QBs are not allowed to get injured?

Oh shoot Reed, i hope you know i am just having fun with you, and your Rosen thang. You might be right. Heck if i know the QB answer my friend  :D

Edited by 3rdand12
add an R
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2 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Oh shoot Reed, i hope you know i am just having fun with you, and you Rosen thang. You might be right. Heck if i know the QB answer my friend  :D

I know and agree buddy! I was having fun back!

 

I just want us to hurry and trade up...it's killing me

Edited by Reed83HOF
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8 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

But is that a Million dollar Jackpot or a $100 jackpot?

 

No Qb in this draft is a lock to be Manning/Luck/Brady/Brees

 

its more likely they could all max out as the next Winston or Marriotta

Are you happy giving up almost the entire first half of your draft to move up to get Winston, Marriotta, Bortles or Trubisky?

Just because the QB is the best QB in his draft class it doesn't mean they are worth mortgaging the future over.

Just because the Bills haven't had a franchise QB in a long time and just like every other team, wants one, doesn't mean giving up a boatload of picks to get one this year will mean they have some force to be reckoned with at QB for 10-15 years

If Brady and Brees were in the draft there'd be no guarantee they'd be Brady and Brees

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1 hour ago, billsfan11 said:

I think Bills will have to give up more than that to get to two.

 

I think it’s going to cost them both 1st this years and next years as well.

 

It's obviously going to be both firsts this year and then some. But all it will cost us in 2018 draft capital is house money.

 

I don't think it'll be an additional 1st next year. Maybe a 2nd. But even if it is a 1st, I'm good with that if they pick the guy they really want.

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1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Having “house money” does not justify taking imprudent risks.  Say I won a thousand $ on a $2 scratch off.  That doesn’t mean that I should spend that thousand on more scratch offs.

 

Do you seriously think that's a remotely fair comparison comparing playing the lottery to ensuring you draft the QB you want in what's being considered as one of the strongest QB classes in at least the last decade?

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25 minutes ago, napmaster said:

So if all of those picks are House Money and expendable then take this approach with the draft:

 

#12 Lamar Jackson
#22 Mason Rudolph
#53 Luke Falk
#56 Kyle Lauletta

 

It's the same net result with 0 positon player help.  Bet on the field as none of the Core 4 are can't miss prospects.

 

 

It would be great if you could hedge your bet like that, but how many QBs can you actually keep on the roster.

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All 5 of the top QB's are closely graded to each other, none stand head and shoulders above the others.  This is not like when Goff and Wentz were by far the 2 best prospects in the draft.  

 

Every team will have them ranked differently, and any of the 5 are capable of being the first 2 QB's taken, it all comes down to what each team thinks and wants.  

 

If the Bills see a guy as the "must get" guy, they have the ammo to go get him.  But if the top guys on their board are very closely ranked, they are better off holding the assets and making a cheaper move up to 7, 8, 9 or 10 to grab the one that falls out of the top 5.  Not to mention, one of the top 5 will for sure be on the board at 12, and possibly 2 or 3 of them.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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1 hour ago, aristocrat said:

 

The problem is the jets overpaid by 30 percent based on your value chart so we need to give the giants 3500 points so you’re looking at next years First and probably second as well.  

 

This would be the most draft picks ever given for a player in nfl history 

 

Jets actually overpaid by roughly 23%, if you're using the chart and accounting for the fact that the 2nd rounder in 2019 is roughly equal to a 3rd rounder this year. I'm pretty sure that's how they do it.

 

If the Giants are saying exact value as what the Jets gave the Colts, we could probably just throw in our 1st next year. I really don't think that it'll take BOTH our 1st and 2nd next year ALONG WITH both 1sts this year, a 2nd and the 1st pick in round 3.

 

I really also don't think Gettleman will necessarily operate that way because of both the relationship he has with McDermott and the fact that you start reaching ridiculousness territory at that point.

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Then it had better not happen. That would be highway robbery.

 

Not really.

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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Beane explained it.  He wants to clear all the dead cap this year.  Next year their cap amount will be huge.

 

Right, at which point we can go out and spend for a couple big time FAs, which can hopefully balance out any extra draft picks we might need to give away for next year.

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