Interesting Tyrod Stat from Mike Rodak

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

And the new update:

 

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Since 2015, the Bills have scored (FG or TD) on 28% of fourth-quarter drives when trailing by eight or fewer points. That ranks 30th. Meanwhile, 40% of such drives have ended 3-and-out, second-worst in NFL.

 

So 30th and 31st in two important categories....yikes.

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So 30th and 31st in two important categories....yikes.

 

None of any of this is surprising if you watch the games...

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

 

None of any of this is surprising if you watch the games...

 

It's not.  Pretty much every time we're down in the 4th, I expect a loss.  I know we've had a few comebacks but the majority of the time the outcome is disappointing.

I view Taylor as Nicholas Cage....he's had some good films but most of them leave you disappointed.

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's not.  Pretty much every time we're down in the 4th, I expect a loss.  I know we've had a few comebacks but the majority of the time the outcome is disappointing.

I view Taylor as Nicholas Cage....he's had some good films but most of them leave you disappointed.

What’s the NFL QB equivalent of winning the Oscar for best actor? Because until TT achieves that, he is rungs below Nicolas Cage. 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

The two most critical games of Tyrod's career:

 

1) at Miami this year.........which he won

 

2) At home against Miami in 2016 with playoffs on the line......where he twice lead the Bills back from 14 point deficits......including a long TD drive to go up 3 with just over a minute left........and the subsequent long OT drive where Carpenter missed the chip shot FG.  

 

There are some good and some bad aspects with Tyrod late in games...........but then again last season we were also treated to the stat about Aaron Rodgers abysmal track record against winning teams when trailing by even ONE POINT in the 4th quarter that made him look like utter garbage too.  

 

Small stat samples don't necessarily tell the story. 

[ColoradoBills]

The most interesting stat I want to see from TT will be on another teams game log.

I want a new QB, please.

[elroy16]

I really want to shove these stats into Evan Silva's face, but it's not worth the effort. He said he hoped Buffalo didn't get into the playoffs because McD put himself above the team when he played Peterman against the Chargers. Per him, Bills fans are narrow minded and myopic and can't see the league landscape, therefore we blew the QB situation. We put our fanboy feel over facts. 

 

[Teddy KGB]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The two most critical games of Tyrod's career:

 

1) at Miami this year.........which he won

 

2) At home against Miami in 2016 with playoffs on the line......where he twice lead the Bills back from 14 point deficits......including a long TD drive to go up 3 with just over a minute left........and the subsequent long OT drive where Carpenter missed the chip shot FG.  

 

There are some good and some bad aspects with Tyrod late in games...........but then again last season we were also treated to the stat about Aaron Rodgers abysmal track record against winning teams when trailing by even ONE POINT in the 4th quarter that made him look like utter garbage too.  

 

Small stat samples don't necessarily tell the story. 

 

Why is Miami more critical than Jacksonville ? 

 

What about Philly, Washington, Steelers, Raiders, Pats, Saints, Panthers, Bengals, Ravens, etc ? 

 

Beating David Fales is his Mona Lisa ? 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Why is Miami more critical than Jacksonville ? 

 

What about Philly, Washington, Steelers, Raiders, Pats, Saints, etc ? 

 

Cot runs deep 

As does the hate Ryan

[Teddy KGB]

4 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

As does the hate Ryan

 

This gets funnier after the 20th time ? 

 

Just pm him if you miss him so much.   Maybe he can become your pen pal.   

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

25 minutes ago, K-9 said:

What’s the NFL QB equivalent of winning the Oscar for best actor? Because until TT achieves that, he is rungs below Nicolas Cage. 

 

You know what....I completely forgot Cage won an Oscar.  Completely forgot.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

This gets funnier after the 20th time ? 

 

Just pm him if you miss him so much.   Maybe he can become your pen pal.   

 

 

Your not fooling anybody Ryan

[YattaOkasan]

Tried to replicate this with Pro Football Reference (OMFG that site).  I added OT cause you know its pretty critical.  I get sorta different numbers.  Puts TT clearly in bottom 3rd but not really dead last.  I would like to see how he gathered his data.  But seriously that PFR tool seems cray cray.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2015&year_max=2017&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&down[]=3&down[]=4&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=2PCP&include_kneels=N&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&margin_min=-8&margin_max=0&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards#offense::none

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Tried to replicate this with Pro Football Reference (OMFG that site).  I added OT cause you know its pretty critical.  I get sorta different numbers.  Puts TT clearly in bottom 3rd but not really dead last.  I would like to see how he gathered his data.  But seriously that PFR tool seems cray cray.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2015&year_max=2017&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&down[]=3&down[]=4&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=2PCP&include_kneels=N&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&margin_min=-8&margin_max=0&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards#offense::none

I personally do appreciate the attempts to come up with data to reflect what our eyes are actually seeing

 

A lot of variables.....but bottom line is TT has hit his ceiling....the question is his his ceiling good enough to get us through a year so a talented 1st round draft pick QB can not be thrown to the wolves?

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I think I've got it reverse engineered at this point. When the Bills are trailing by 8 or fewer points in the 4th Quarter, Tyrod is:

38/71 for 455 yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs. He's taken 7 sacks, and he's converted 19 1st downs.

Werent a couple of those meaningless throws late in games where he is trying to force something when we have been down big?

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, John from Hemet said:

I personally do appreciate the attempts to come up with data to reflect what our eyes are actually seeing

 

A lot of variables.....but bottom line is TT has hit his ceiling....the question is his his ceiling good enough to get us through a year so a talented 1st round draft pick QB can not be thrown to the wolves?

So its definitely adding OT that changed things.  Adds 4 not good QBs to the list.  TT didnt really have a lot of attempts in OT.  Could probably change the qualifying from 50+ passes to 60+ passes.

[BuffaloBill]

4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

   Not Pizza but she's eyeing that sub

 

 

Bunch of horny pervs hijacking this thread  

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I just know when the chips are down and we are behind I don't want to see Tyrod on the field for us. I know we were spoiled as fans with Kelly and even Reich being able to come from behind and win. Heck I remember thinking Kelly wasn't even getting going until the second half. Now with Tyrod I know when we are behind by anything more than a FG I feel like the game is over in the second half. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Bunch of horny pervs hijacking this thread  

She is a keeper

 

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Werent a couple of those meaningless throws late in games where he is trying to force something when we have been down big?

Hes actually relatively small sample size relative to other QBs.  Including the OT (so 4 lowest included) hes 27 out 36 qualifying.  

Edited February 27, 2018 by YattaOkasan
added ranking for pass attempts

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

An argument against Taylor's low INT %. 

This doesn't surprise me. I think QBs who are cautious about throwing the ball never learn how to take risks when they throw.   If there's a risk, they don't throw.   

 

Then, when they get to the 4th quarter and need a score, they don't HOW to take risks, because they don't take risks any other time.  So they make bad choices. 

 

It's common among conservative quarterbacks.   

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This doesn't surprise me. I think QBs who are cautious about throwing the ball never learn how to take risks when they throw.   If there's a risk, they don't throw.   

 

Then, when they get to the 4th quarter and need a score, they don't HOW to take risks, because they don't take risks any other time.  So they make bad choices. 

 

It's common among conservative quarterbacks.   

I don't even think the throws he avoids are risky throws. 1 on 1 contested throws are IMO low risk throws all top passing QBs attempt. 

[nedboy7]

TT is coming back. Better call some therapists boys. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by nedboy7

[TheFunPolice]

Tyrod is smart enough to know that aside from some electrifying runs (which eventually dry up for every mobile QB) the biggest thing he brings to the table is that he is not going to throw picks. If he starts throwing picks he is on the bench as a backup somewhere at best.

Just now, nedboy7 said:

TT is coming back. Better call come therapists boys. 

 

If this front office/head coach is dumb enough to do that they will be sorry next season when they are forced to bench him again and deal with the firestorm OR go the Buddy Nix route and dig in their heels to prove they were right and everyone else was wrong.

[Wily Dog]

10 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

TT is coming back. Better call come therapists boys. 

 

In a pigs  A##.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Wily Dog

[TheFunPolice]

anything is possible...

 

last year Tyrod was gone, then when he was humbled by the market and came back for less money the team went all in with its PR push saying "we got our QB!"

 

Then they bench him in the middle of a playoff run for a guy who looked like he just saw a ghost and proceeded to throw 5 picks before halftime.

 

If they bring him back again now it's a joke, but who knows...

[Pbomb]

41 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The two most critical games of Tyrod's career:

 

1) at Miami this year.........which he won

 

2) At home against Miami in 2016 with playoffs on the line......where he twice lead the Bills back from 14 point deficits......including a long TD drive to go up 3 with just over a minute left........and the subsequent long OT drive where Carpenter missed the chip shot FG.  

 

There are some good and some bad aspects with Tyrod late in games...........but then again last season we were also treated to the stat about Aaron Rodgers abysmal track record against winning teams when trailing by even ONE POINT in the 4th quarter that made him look like utter garbage too.  

 

Small stat samples don't necessarily tell the story. 

The actual playoff game against jacksonville wasnt the most critical?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

He's kinda testy... plus he evidently has reading comprehension and communication issues.

 

But he's a helluva poster... I mean DAMMMNNNN!!!!  Look at that rep!!! 

Oh tranny 

 

you so smart and funny.  

So I was ignoring you yet you continue to be a petulant child.   

 

Why is that? 

Please explain how your insults add to any thread?  

 

You call me me out for not contributing so I ask what exactly do you contribute?  

 

[Lurker]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

4 max (per ESPN's splits for '4th Q +/-7 pts). Which would mean over the past 3 years he's thrown 57 total passes while down by 8+ in the 4th.

 

So, four INTs when down by 8 or less points in the 4th quarter.    

 

If he throws two fewer, he's in the top half of the league.    Not very meaningful, IMO...

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Bunch of horny pervs hijacking this thread  

Jealous????  

[JPP]

Taylor will go to Denver and deliver them another Superbowl!!  .......just spicing up this thread abit from the same ol same ol.....

[Overdue Bill]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

THESE are the stats I found most telling. They're Tyrod in a nutshell: Good enough to start, good enough to keep you in a game as long as your defense and running game are humming. Will make some spectacular plays with his legs and his arm....BUT....when it's crunch time, and the game hangs in the balance he's well below average. For that very reason, it is time for the Bills to turn the page once and for all. 

I wish I could just send a screenshot of these stats to every clueless national media pundit who thinks Tyrod gets a raw deal or that Bills fans are crazy for wanting to move on from him.

AND this is what makes this draft so interesting...TT is average at best BUT do you dump him with no alternative but an untested draft pick or do you spend more money on a guy who is no better (Josh McCown) OR do you keep him while you prep your draft pick?

[Jobot]

Why is trailing by '8pts' or fewer significant?

 

Random stats on TV, ESPN website, or ones generated by Mike Rodak are worthless.  I recommend ignoring them.

 

I'll just stick with the eyeball test and be confident that we should to upgrade the qb position as of today.

[BuffaloHokie13]

51 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

So, four INTs when down by 8 or less points in the 4th quarter.    

 

If he throws two fewer, he's in the top half of the league.    Not very meaningful, IMO...

5. I figured out the rest a little later than my initial post.

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, Jobot said:

Why is trailing by '8pts' or fewer significant?

 

Random stats on TV, ESPN website, or ones generated by Mike Rodak are worthless.  I recommend ignoring them.

 

I'll just stick with the eyeball test and be confident that we should to upgrade the qb position as of today.

Just a guess, but maybe because 8 points is within 1 score- meaning the game is still in reach.  (No sarcasm intended).

Edited February 28, 2018 by JaCrispy

[YattaOkasan]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

5. I figured out the rest a little later than my initial post.

Check that search out on PFR. You can recreate the whole data set. I want to compare his td% and int% during this time to his typical. I’m pretty sure it’s going to be higher. Which suggests he does take chances when the game is on the line (a previous argument against him). He’s just not very good at it. Again I need to verify that. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I don't even think the throws he avoids are risky throws. 1 on 1 contested throws are IMO low risk throws all top passing QBs attempt. 

I don't want to argue about it, because the point's the same.   If you don't throw them in the second quarter, you won't learn how to throw them in the fourth quarter.  

 

I'm not sure you're right about your point, however.    First, Brady doesn't throw contested balls.   A very high percentage of his throws are out of the reach of any defender.   I think the same is true for Rodgers, too.   Quarterbacks throw to receivers who have an advantage over the defender - the receiver has a step on a deep pattern, or the receiver has the defender turned so the QB can throw to the back shoulder, or the receiver is six inches taller or 40 pounds heavier than the defender.   The only 50-50 balls they throw are occasional deep passes, especially on third down, where an INT doesn't hurt you much.   

 

If you throw 6 50-50 balls in a game, you'd get two completions, two incompletions and two interceptions, on average, and that's a bad result.   

 

Good QBs don't throw 50-50 balls very often.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't want to argue about it, because the point's the same.   If you don't throw them in the second quarter, you won't learn how to throw them in the fourth quarter.  

 

I'm not sure you're right about your point, however.    First, Brady doesn't throw contested balls.   A very high percentage of his throws are out of the reach of any defender.   I think the same is true for Rodgers, too.   Quarterbacks throw to receivers who have an advantage over the defender - the receiver has a step on a deep pattern, or the receiver has the defender turned so the QB can throw to the back shoulder, or the receiver is six inches taller or 40 pounds heavier than the defender.   The only 50-50 balls they throw are occasional deep passes, especially on third down, where an INT doesn't hurt you much.   

 

If you throw 6 50-50 balls in a game, you'd get two completions, two incompletions and two interceptions, on average, and that's a bad result.   

 

Good QBs don't throw 50-50 balls very often.  

No one said 50-50 balls. Good QBs find single coverage and trust their guy to win. Back shoulder throws is a great example of that, a throw Taylor probably has not attempted in his 3 years. These throws are attempted multiple times a game by top QBs. Brady throws contested balls all the time, especially to Gronk. We're talking 6-8 of these throws a game. These throws can be the difference in keeping drives alive. 

 

 

 

 

[MTBill]

These are good analytics from what I can see.  I'm not verifying their accuracy and I presume he didn't just make them up...

 

These are a good argument as to why it is time to move on.  When your analytics team is looking at the ratio of empty seats to seats filled in the stand - or the revenue per attendee - it's time to move on from your analytics.  This is what is happening at OBD.

 

I've been on the fence with TT - because I do like the guy and I bought a lot of argument that it was not entirely his fault (and still do)...  but if you are trailing by under 8 points in the 4th quarter - 3-15 is really not getting it done.  It isn't 100% your own fault, but you are part of the problem, not part of the solution.

 

That said - I still would not be shocked if they keep TT as a bridge QB for 2018 depending on how the FA chips fall.  I think they would love to get a better option - but the $ just might not be there in 2018.  If they don't get a FA - I expect a drafted QB - depending on how much draft capital it takes to move up or who falls to where.  If they do that - they probably start TT to at least begin the season until the staff feels the rookie is ready.  And Peterman probably gets to compete in there too.  New OC - clean slate.  Open competition at QB to open camp.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Pbomb said:

The actual playoff game against jacksonville wasnt the most critical?

 

When you haven't made the playoffs in 18 years.........absolutely not.

 

Would have been nice to upset the Jags but the steps go 1) playoffs and 2) Super Bowl.........and step 2 wasn't happening........they were thoroughly overmatched in the Jags game but conservative football......like a clock-killingTyrod Taylor lead 18 play drive in the first half.....really helped keep the score close.

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

TT is coming back. Better call some therapists boys. 

 

 

It's called Tyrophobia.

 

The irrational fear that nothing can be worse than Tyrod Taylor as your starting QB.