Keep the picks or just get a QB?

[billspro]

I am all for trading up for a QB, but only if they look like a franchise guy. 

 

I would not trade up into the top ten for any of the Qbs in this draft. Cleveland is going to take a QB 1st overall, so one guy will be off the board. Darnold has had trouble with decision making this year, Rosen does not seem to have the attitude of a franchise Qb, Allen does not have the stats, and Mayfield does not have the size. 

 

I might be willing to trade up into the teens for Mayfield or Allen, I would also be okay waiting to see if one of those guys drops to us. This does seem like a deep QB class so we might fair better drafting one in the second round and having a vetran QB start next year (Taylor, Keenum, Bradford, Bridewater, etc.).

[BuffaloRebound]

Plausible scenario where Cleveland takes Rosen, Giants take Barkley, and Indy trades out of #3.  Would Bills give up our 2 #1's and a #1 next year for Darnold?

[BigDingus]

9 minutes ago, I_want_2_BILL_Lieve said:

 

We also had a TE be our leading receiver with just over 500 yards. A QB that throws with anticipation lowers the sack total.  I think that those are on the QB. And by the way, I like TT. But you and I disagree on how to build a team. 

 

 

 

His quote was wrong anyway. The OL is not responsible for TT hanging on to the ball for too long. He holds on to it longer than all but 2 QB's in the league, and that's including everyone who started this year, not just 32 players.

[billspro]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Plausible scenario where Cleveland takes Rosen, Giants take Barkley, and Indy trades out of #3.  Would Bills give up our 2 #1's and a #1 next year for Darnold?

 

I would rather take Allen or Mayfield later in the draft. I don't see a huge separation between them as prospects. 

 

I also don't like drafting sophmore QB's. I can't think of any that became successful. 

[GunnerBill]

So in a situation where people want to Bills to trade up to #3 or #4:

 

#4 takes both 2017 1sts and one of our 2nds. 

#3 takes both 2017 1sts and either both 2nds or our 2018 1st in all likelihood.  

 

That is too rich for me unless Rosen is still somehow sitting in the green room.  

[I_want_2_BILL_Lieve]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So in a situation where people want to Bills to trade up to #3 or #4:

 

#4 takes both 2017 1sts and one of our 2nds. 

#3 takes both 2017 1sts and either both 2nds or our 2018 1st in all likelihood.  

 

That is too rich for me unless Rosen is still somehow sitting in the green room.  

 

This is reasonable. How much for who's there. If McBean is convinced X is our guy, and he's still there. Then yeah. I'm OK with #4. But the QB position is always over-drafted. But you have to until you find your guy. 

 

[K-9]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That WAS the 2005 pick.  Or else where did it come from?  We didn't go into the 2004 draft with 2 first rounders.  We got the second one used to select Losman by moving our 2005 1st rounder forward a year.  The cost to do that was a 2nd round pick in 2014.  

 

If it is 2 first round picks invested in Losman then in order to select Losman and Evans over a two year period we would have needed 3 First Round picks to start with (2 for Losman and 1 for Evans).  

We only needed two to start with in 2004 and one to give up in 2005:

 

#13 2004, #22 2004 (from Dallas), #20 2005 (to Dallas)

 

I think you are hung up on the net #1 total and I agree; we didn’t lose a number one pick because we swapped them with Dallas. But we still invested two in Losman; one (2004) to take him and one (2005) to make it happen. 

 

So I amend my earlier statement. I agree to agree that we didn’t lose a first round pick and agree to disagree that we didn’t invest two first round picks. 

 

Hey, we half agree! ?

Edited January 4, 2018 by K-9

[GunnerBill]

Just now, K-9 said:

We only needed two to start with in 2004 and one to give up in 2005:

 

#13 2004, #22 2004 (from Dallas), #20 2005 (to Dallas)

 

I think you are hung up on the net #1 total and I agree; we didn’t lose a number one pick because we swapped them with Dallas. But we still invested two in Losman; one (2004) to take him and one (2005) to make it happen. 

 

So I amend my earlier statement. I agree to agree that we didn’t lose a first round pick and agree to disagree that we didn’t invest two first round picks. 

 

 

 

Okay but in terms of 1st rounders spent on QBs since Kelly we agree it is 4? Because we didn't lose one on Losman he didn't cost us an extra 1st.  

[K-9]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Okay but in terms of 1st rounders spent on QBs since Kelly we agree it is 4? Because we didn't lose one on Losman he didn't cost us an extra 1st.  

Done, my good man! Done! Let’s have another! 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Why not think of this draft as the top five  2018 QB's PLUS the top 6 available veterans who have already proven that they can take a snap under center AND win games in the NFL:   Cousins, Manning, Bridgewater, Smith, Keenum and Bradford?

 

Use one of those four top two round draft picks on a defensive tackle......AND use the other 3 for big uglies on the offensive line who put a hand in the dirt.   Which is better?   (NEW baby Toy & current ok o-line)  or (NEW older Toy with much improved o-line)  ?

 

Might that be a viable plan, rather than a 21 year old kid who has a 2/3 chance of flaming out?

 

I think that TT 's skill set is not really a good fit for the coaches and our players. (risking a throw far down field would let Shady run an extra 10 yards before meeting a safety).   I wonder if one of those vet's film, shows our coaches just what they want.

Edited January 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[BuffaloRebound]

I'm all for Bills going after their guy at QB this year.  Put everything on the table.  Our two 1sts, two 2nds, next years 1st, and Cordy should all be on table.  This year was a nice feel-good story, but it's all for nought if we don't find our QB.  Since Cleveland is in the business of collecting assets and not actually winning, maybe they trade out of #1. Certainly seems to have worked out for Rams and Philly going up and getting their guy.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...this gang didn't spend their time acquiring our best draft capital in years to blow it all on one guy........this Cousins for multiple picks AND 30 mil/yr is shear lunacy right up there with "Ditka's Draft For Ricky.....Vikes boatload for Herschel......Boy Danny Snyder's ransom for RG II 1/8"...ain't happenin' IMO.....THAT for mediocrity?.....can see this gang playing it close to the vest......possibly OL/DL and Rudolph (not start ready) with the 1sts, trading a 2nd to KC for Alex Smith (rumors are that is what Andy is looking for), and using the other 2nd for OL/DL...after that, stay tuned.......think Star will be a FA target so I am probably wrong.....

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The quickest way to a competitive roster is a franchise Quarterback.  

heh?    From where the Bills are drafting (and have been drafting for the last decade- the middle third of the first round), it would take basically take about 2.5 years of first and second round picks to get a shot at a top franchise QB.  Something like 2 or 3 first round picks and 3 or 2 second round picks.  That is 5 picks at positions where the "bust rate" is much lower- so maybe 4 sure starters are exchanged for a ? 50% chance at a superior QB.  IMO that is too much to pay.  50% x 2 = (hope) 100% to get a very good QB, who is than playing WITHOUT 10 or so better supporting players? ???   How does that 1 QB give you a competitive roster?  It give you a star QB that nobody will ever see, because he will spend his time flat on his back.  

Edited January 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[Virgil]

The more I think about it, I think I’m staying put unless it’s a minor trade up into the Teens for Rudolph or Mayfield.  I think Rudolph is the only one having a shot of still being there. 

 

If it doesn’t happen and we roll with Tyrod and get quality around him, I think we can sell the farm next year for a QB.  Most teams will have gotten them this year, so there’s less competition. And we need to solidify a lot of holes.  I think that adding the depth changes a few of those blowout losses this year and  we are a better team. 

 

This isn’t a positive vote for TT, but I just can’t justify losing so much potential talent for a “Maybe” QB. 

 

Ideally, I would want Cousins and use our picks like normal.  

 

I think we are a 10-6/11-5 team in that scenario and we have the cap room. 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Virgil

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

heh?    From where the Bills are drafting (and have been drafting for the last decade- the middle third of the first round), it would take basically take about 2.5 years of first and second round picks to get a shot at a top franchise QB.  Something like 2 or 3 first round picks and 3 or 2 second round picks.  That is 5 picks at positions where the "bust rate" is much lower- so maybe 4 sure starters are exchanged for a ? 50% chance at a superior QB.  IMO that is too much to pay.  50% x 2 = (hope) 100% to get a very good QB, who is than playing WITHOUT 10 or so better supporting players? ???   How does that 1 QB give you a competitive roster?  It give you a star QB that nobody will ever see, because he will spend his time flat on his back.  

 

Nonsense.  There was a franchise Quarterback sitting there at #10 last year and this franchise punted instead to take a defensive back (a player who I love by the way... but even if you draft the best corner in the league - a Revis II - a top 10 level Quarterback say Matt Ryan or Cam Newton is still worth more than that).  The Bills have drafted in the bottom third of the draft plenty.  Before 2014 we had NINE - count them - NINE losing seasons in a row including a 4-12 followed by 6-10, 6-10, 6-10. 

 

We have 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks this year... that's why everyone is talking about trade up scenarios because the Bills have the ammunition and this is a reasonably deep Quarterback class. And I am not actually advocating using ALL of that ammunition.  Unless Rosen slides to a spot where a team would entertain a trade I would not entertain moving up.  But if Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold are all off the board by the time Green Bay goes on the clock and you have the potentially Cousinsless Redskins at 15 right behind them then the Bills bundling their 2 1sts back into one for Mason Rudolph is not a move that is going to set the franchise back.  Quite the opposite. 

 

The fastest way to becoming a true contender in the NFL is to find a franchise Quarterback.  They very, very rarely come up in FA to the extent that a borderline franchise guy like Kirk Cousins will become the highest paid player in league history this spring..... so you better be ready to shoot for one in the draft. 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nonsense.  There was a franchise Quarterback sitting there at #10 last year and this franchise punted instead to take a defensive back (a player who I love by the way... but even if you draft the best corner in the league - a Revis II - a top 10 level Quarterback say Matt Ryan or Cam Newton is still worth more than that).  The Bills have drafted in the bottom third of the draft plenty.  Before 2014 we had NINE - count them - NINE losing seasons in a row including a 4-12 followed by 6-10, 6-10, 6-10. 

 

We have 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks this year... that's why everyone is talking about trade up scenarios because the Bills have the ammunition and this is a reasonably deep Quarterback class. And I am not actually advocating using ALL of that ammunition.  Unless Rosen slides to a spot where a team would entertain a trade I would not entertain moving up.  But if Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold are all off the board by the time Green Bay goes on the clock and you have the potentially Cousinsless Redskins at 15 right behind them then the Bills bundling their 2 1sts back into one for Mason Rudolph is not a move that is going to set the franchise back.  Quite the opposite. 

 

The fastest way to becoming a true contender in the NFL is to find a franchise Quarterback.  They very, very rarely come up in FA to the extent that a borderline franchise guy like Kirk Cousins will become the highest paid player in league history this spring..... so you better be ready to shoot for one in the draft. 

 

Jury is still out on those guys. I’m not sold on Mahomes or Watson yet. We won’t know for a few years.  

 

I was glad we passed on them, made the playoffs, and have the ammo we do now in this draft. 

[jrober38]

26 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Jury is still out on those guys. I’m not sold on Mahomes or Watson yet. We won’t know for a few years.  

 

I was glad we passed on them, made the playoffs, and have the ammo we do now in this draft. 

 

The problem is the ammo isn't very valuable given that both us, and the Chiefs made the playoffs.

 

Moving up far enough to get a top QB is going to be nearly impossible this year given how many teams need QBs. 

[GreggTX]

If they are serious about making this team a SB contender, they have to draft a qb with mvp potential or stop pretending and I don't mean Cousins either.

[GreggTX]

8 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Cleveland is not trading this time man.  I'm not sure why people think they will but they set themselves up for this EXACT scenario.  Unless they pay Cousins, they are taking Darnold or Rosen at 1.  Believe it.  Nobody is going to do the Bills favors and pass on a franchise QB when they set themselves up for this just because Bills fans are desperate for a QB (and I'm not saying we shouldn't want one, because we should).

The furthest I can see us moving up is by trading with the 49'ers or Colts. I just hope we get the best one of the bunch.

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Why not think of this draft as the top five  2018 QB's PLUS the top 6 available veterans who have already proven that they can take a snap under center AND win games in the NFL:   Cousins, Manning, Bridgewater, Smith, Keenum and Bradford?

 

Use one of those four top two round draft picks on a defensive tackle......AND use the other 3 for big uglies on the offensive line who put a hand in the dirt.   Which is better?   (NEW baby Toy & current ok o-line)  or (NEW older Toy with much improved o-line)  ?

 

Might that be a viable plan, rather than a 21 year old kid who has a 2/3 chance of flaming out?

 

I think that TT 's skill set is not really a good fit for the coaches and our players. (risking a throw far down field would let Shady run an extra 10 yards before meeting a safety).   I wonder if one of those vet's film, shows our coaches just what they want.

I don't want ANY of those veteran QB's. There's a reason why they are available and we already have a mediocre QB anyways. We need to aim higher.

[Big Turk]

Depends who is available...if there is someone they genuinely like them trade the picks...of its someone they don't and they are just getting them because they need a QB them keep the picks because that would be thr worst thing that happens...

 

Spend draft capital to get a guy they dont really want and then have to replace him in a few years...

 

And least if its a guy they believe in it would be easier to stomach if he doesnt turn out

[die hard bills fan]

QB is priority #1.  I believe they will target a QB they want and go after him moving up to get him if needed.

[bobobonators]

 

 

I’m down for trading up for our guy regardless of who he ends up being and regardless of the position. If we feel Mayfield is our guy. USE THE PICKS. If we feel Roquon Smith is our guy. USE THE PICKS. 

 

Now, if we’re going to use those picks and give up our entire draft to get a QB we better fire Rico the following day. I want Rico nowhere near our new QB.

[papazoid]

Keep the picks or just get a QB ??

 

I say....keep the picks AND get a QB ........in free agency

Edited January 5, 2018 by papazoid

[maryland-bills-fan]

Does anybody remember the "comeback"game with Reich playing QB? ...........    Three things are needed for a QB to be successful.

#1 He has to be good

#2 He has to have a good supporting cast.

#3 He has to have a coach & system that fits his abilities.

 

Predicting if a college QB is good (for the pros) is partly some physical things that can be measured but is hard to evaluate because the quality of his teammates, coaches and opposition are uneven, hard to compare and difficult to project to the different pro level.  For a veteran pro player (FA or trade) much of this uncertainty is eliminated- you can see how he did against a defensive backfield with all good players. From college play, he played in many games where there were no pro-quality CB/S to throw against. ........ If this was so easy, then why are about 2/3 of all first round QB's essentially busts or career backups?

 

The supporting cast is really as important as the QB himself.   One aspect that our posters seem to ignore is that many good QB's never make it because the system usually puts them on bad teams. There are two main ways to get into this situation.  (1)  0-16 teams are bad, and they draft first. Superman as QB is not going to help much.   (2) Teams can also make themselves "bad" by giving up too many draft picks for the "savior" QB.  That starves the QB of a supporting cast. ....... In both these situations, you might have a good QB, but he looks bad and may regress.  He winds up unable to get into his receiver progression because he us running for his life.  When the 1st down running play gets blown up in the backfield, he has too many 2nd and 14 situations.  If there is no deep threat, the play-action pass is not respected and also the safety and linebackers plug holes for running plays.  He is playing from behind in the score and tries risky plays. ........   There are a lot of highly drafted QB's (looked great in college) who might be good as pro's but have been stuck in bad situations. 

 

#3  The coach and the system have to match the QB's abilities and the abilities of the team.  (right now TT's skill set is not where those things are probably going with the Bills).

 

I just can not see selling off 5 or so first and second round pick to take a crap shoot on a college QB and then sticking him on an inferior team.

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

The furthest I can see us moving up is by trading with the 49'ers or Colts. I just hope we get the best one of the bunch.

I don't want ANY of those veteran QB's. There's a reason why they are available and we already have a mediocre QB anyways. We need to aim higher.

 No, there is not "a reason" for their availability.  You probably mean "a reason", to mean that they are all poor QB's.  There are many other "reasons", why a veteran QB is available.  

 

[1] They may be coming from a poor team and are being gotten rid of to save the face of the owner/management team

[2] They may be coming from a poor team and are looking to get the hell out of Dodge  (Cousins anyone?)

[3] They might not be a good skill fit for the coaching staff- sort of like a 3-4 linebacker in a 4-3 scheme  (TT anyone?)

[4] They might be blocked by a superior QB and want to start and get big bucks elsewhere (Garappolo?)   

        By the way, have you ever noticed how really good teams can easily trade away a backup for a good return- and that guy just looks mediocre when        he plays with a mediocre team?

[5] They might be in a situation where the team somehow lucked into two top notch guys (Kemp/Lamonica?)

[6]  Some guys just take a while to "get it".  It might be a mental or maturity thing.

 

I do not know enough about the veterans available to peg any of them.  I could see some of them working out okay for the Bills to give time for a lower draft pick to develop.

16 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I also love how EVERY person that thinks the way of the OP is that 

 

yep gonna bust on QB but every pick used to get to take the QB is going to be a starter lol

It is easier to project an offensive lineman from college to pros than a QB.  For QB's it is about a 30% hit rate. For, say, offensive linemen, it is a 83.2% hit rate.

[NewEraBills]

People seem to read what I said wrong.  I never said a QB is not a part of the equation.  He is.  He's just not the only part.  To me the trenches, and QB are the fastest way to be competitive.  And I don't think it's mutually exclusive where one takes precedence over the other one.  I think it's equal and if you don't think this team is hurting in the trenches and want to sacrifice possible great trench players for a QB, then be prepared to get a lot worse before you get better.  Do we need a QB?  Yes.  Do we need trenches?  HELL YES.  Three picks for a QB just took away two trench players.  You can always run the rock, play great defense, and have a serviceable QB until you get THAT guy and be very competitive.  But you are NOT going to get a Franchise QB and have terrible trenches and be competitive.  The saying is as real as it gets.  You win the game when you can win UP FRONT.

 

I'm all for taking a QB.  But I'm not for sacrificing talented trenches for a QB.  So I'm for keeping the picks, stacking the trenches and if one of those top guys falls within range to where you don't have to do a desperate move, sure, you take him.  

Edited January 5, 2018 by NewEraBills

[Jay_Fixit]

Get your quarterback 

Protect your quarterback

Get to the other teams quarterback

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

Keep the picks and get this QB!! 

 

https://twitter.com/NFLFilmStudy/status/904403766597836801

Get a bridge QB interim or let Tyrod be bridge.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

I have done a 180 on the qb position .  My new thought is to get the very best vet you can get to start each season.  You may end up using someone for a few years or maybe only 1 year.  In the meantime draft one every year.  If you use your first because you love the guy great, if not take your Peterman type flier in the midrounds.  The one think I would not do is is make one of those mega trades to get one.  

Next season would look something like this.  Alex smith the starter , Peterman, number two and your draft pick number 3.  Plus 4 or 5 starting caliber rookies added to the roster

if you make the mega trade you are giving up your two first this and one first next year at a min.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

Big uglies.    Big Uglies.  BIG UGLIES.  BIG UGLIES !!!

Bumper sticker:

 

My kid can beat the snot out of your middle school honor student.

 

[CSBill]

On 1/4/2018 at 3:38 AM, LeGOATski said:

Keep the picks AND get a QB. Have him sit behind Peterman for a bit, if necessary. I like Rudolph in the late first, if he's there.

 

Sit behind Peterman????? 

 

If we draft a QB he better be an upgrade over Peterman!

[LeGOATski]

24 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

Sit behind Peterman????? 

 

If we draft a QB he better be an upgrade over Peterman!

It'd be nice, but you know it's a unique situation with each guy. If they want him to observe first, it doesn't mean he's worse or will never be better than Peterman.

[ganesh]

On 1/5/2018 at 7:59 AM, Virgil said:

 

Jury is still out on those guys. I’m not sold on Mahomes or Watson yet. We won’t know for a few years.  

 

I was glad we passed on them, made the playoffs, and have the ammo we do now in this draft. 

Watson had a phenomenal rookie season before it was cut short by injury.  He had 19 TD in 6 games...Tyrod had 14 in 14.....Mahomes in his pre-season games and the final start showed that he can sling the ball downfield and win.   I think both these QBs are going to be starting in this league for a long time.....

[BigBuff423]

FWIW, a guy - and I can’t remember the name so I don’t have a link - took the Bill Parcels criteria and separated all the “major” names for the Draft and only 2 checked all 7 boxes: Mayfield and Rudolph. 

 

Out of those two, I’ll take Rudolph and think he’s a good fit for the Bills in the current Offense.

[Kelly the Dog]

All QBs are no more than 50% to be franchise QBs that you would be happy with. There are only two this year that have more than a decent chance at it, and we are very unlikely to get either.

 

What none of us know, the people in charge of the team don't even know yet because they still have a couple months of studying tape and interviewing coaches and players and working them out, is how the next level of Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Rudolph, Finley, etc. are going to end up rated by the Bills, and how far, say, the number one guy is ahead of the number two guy.

 

We also have no clue what other teams are going to do as far as trades ahead of us. And no clue what teams are going to do in free agency with veteran QBs that will dramatically change their draft plans.

 

So it's mostly folly to say we should do this or that now, with player A or B. It's fun to guess or wish but to say we need to do this or that is somewhat foolish. Let it play out. Make QB your number one priority even if keeping Tyrod. Get a veteran stop gap (Taylor, Smith, a Viking, whatever) before the draft, and then go for it depending on which one or two of the second level guys you like/love.