So When Do We Project to Be a Playoff Team?

[Big C]

I think maybe this is a difference in how we perceive the bolded phrase. Yes, they definitely CAN make the playoffs. Every year some darkhorse team sneaks in. There's really not a whole lot to be said for why the Dolphins are superior to the Bills. But that's not building a team that (if everything plays out as expected) should make the playoffs. We've been living in that "if the ball bounces our way in a few key situations and we stay healthy and other teams that are more talented than us have flukey bad seasons we can sneak in" world for what now? A dozen years? 17 years? That's not what I mean by building a team with the talent to expect a playoff appearance.

 

So what about picking a CB at 10 says we are ready for the playoffs that trading down and drafting a CB doesn't? I mean, is Marshon Lattimore going to take us to the playoffs? Is he that much better than White? I think our trade was more of an opportunist play. You know you want a DB, and you see good DBs all up and down the board, and someone is offering you two picks of considerable value to stick to pick a comparable player? I mean Lattimore is definitely the better prospect, but in White you get a four-year starter who may be more pro-ready.

[JM2009]

I don't like any of the WR that are left. I definitely don't want one tonight. I think by passing on guys like Howard the dude from miami and engram, it tells us the bills have a lot of faith in Logan Thomas. Thomas, Holmes are two HUGE WR threats.

We have Watkins and a bunch of 3s and 4s. No number two.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

It's the right question to ask. The Bills keep kicking the can down the road at QB, and two more AFC teams took their shot.

 

When do we get to winning?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

We have Watkins and a bunch of 3s and 4s. No number two.

 

 

how many picks do they have yet in this draft?

 

 

this roster is not even set yet so rather than shut the door on the season like those who have already thrown in the towel, I'm going to leave it open a crack with the hopes they are a competitive team. be nice to see another top 10 offense with a top 5 or 10 defense to go along with it this year?

 

 

that said, I see the streak come to an end as I feel they win 10 games and earn a wc spot...?

[YoloinOhio]

Not at all. I think it would be nuts to assume that he will be as good as Gilmore in his rookie season. Overall the talent of the losses is going to exceed the talent of the additions, at least in 2017. And since some of the additions are now going to be deferred to 2018, I think it only makes sense to assume - and for the record, I agree with this assumption, and am glad the Bills (new) management has made it! - that this team knows 2017 and 2018 are, at best, transitional years.

So what you really meant is that by not signing Gilmore to a top 3 CB deal, or franchising him, they signified they didn't think they would be in the playoffs anytime soon. Not because of the trade down. Because White should be considered an upgrade (to Seymour) at a position of need at this time ... post-Gilmore. While I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, it does make more sense than what you originally said. Jmo Edited April 28, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Samwell Tarly]

The answer to that question has multiple moving parts. Simply making the playoffs is not as complicated as the Bills have made it look. All the other dysfunctional franchises have gotten lucky occasionally for different reasons. It's actually statistically odd that the Bills have missed this many times in a row. Qb is a big cog in the wheel, but lots of less than stellar qbs have made playoff appearances.

[Domdab99]

Explain please. If you're Whaley/McD and you think you're on the verge of winning now, why do you trade down to add another 1st rounder next year? I guess you could say "because we're so good right now we don't need that #10 overall to put us over the top" ...

 

Why does trading down lead you to think they're giving up on the season? They got a sold starter in White, in a position that we desperately needed new players at. And they picked up more picks while doing it. Who would you have picked at 10 that would "put us over the top?" Lattimore? Howard? Who?

 

Picking a QB at 10 would've been more of a signal that the Bills are starting over.

[row_33]

The answer to that question has multiple moving parts. Simply making the playoffs is not as complicated as the Bills have made it look. All the other dysfunctional franchises have gotten lucky occasionally for different reasons. It's actually statistically odd that the Bills have missed this many times in a row. Qb is a big cog in the wheel, but lots of less than stellar qbs have made playoff appearances.

 

There's no stat that says "it's only fair" to make the NFL playoffs.

 

Going 0-2 as a gimme (usually) against a division opponent like the Pats is something no other team has had to put up with the last dozen or so years. Playing for the WC at best every year from week 1 is brutal.

 

Actually I can guarantee a team won't make the playoffs for 1,000 years if they don't put together a competitive squad.

[Juice_32]

My non-sarcastic/bet real money on it answer?

 

2019.

[The Frankish Reich]

 

Why does trading down lead you to think they're giving up on the season? They got a sold starter in White, in a position that we desperately needed new players at. And they picked up more picks while doing it. Who would you have picked at 10 that would "put us over the top?" Lattimore? Howard? Who?

 

Picking a QB at 10 would've been more of a signal that the Bills are starting over.

It might not have worked, but had they taken Howard I would've had the opposite reaction. Something like, I guess Bills management is going to take one (or two) last big shots at making a run while they still have all these (ostensibly) high-caliber players (McCoy, Dareus, Hughes, Glenn, Richie, Clay, even Tyrod) still under contract and still (arguably) in the latter part of their prime years. Because if Howard is everything his proponents think he is, that's something that makes the team immediately much better. Likewise, if they had traded up (no, I don't think this would have been a good idea!) I would be of the same mind.

 

Look, everyone's so sensitive here. This post is about what Bills management (really McD at this point, since Whaley seems at least somewhat marginalized) is thinking about their prospects over the next 1-4 years. Moving up for Sammy in 2014 said "we're trying to make a run right now." Moving down in 2017 says "we're unlikely to make a run right now, let's reload an aim for a future year."

[BillsFan692]

The bills did get a clear upgrade at the top position of need.

[Gugny]

My guess:

 

The next time the Bills have a winning record, they will go to the playoffs. And that will happen in 2019-2020 season..

[MooseTooth]

Anyone out there want to argue for 2018? 2019? Come on, convince me that I'm wrong!

Ehhhhhh.... That's a hard one. Maybe 2019 with a lucky Franchise QB pick. Or really lucky Dak Prescott type scenario. Other than that, I don't see it.

[row_33]

To be a playoff team that gives us a gutpunch as they learn how to win in the playoffs?

 

Don't forget we went through the Ickey Shuffle and Harmon dropping the winning TD the first two runs with Kelly.

[JM2009]

 

 

how many picks do they have yet in this draft?

 

 

this roster is not even set yet so rather than shut the door on the season like those who have already thrown in the towel, I'm going to leave it open a crack with the hopes they are a competitive team. be nice to see another top 10 offense with a top 5 or 10 defense to go along with it this year?

 

 

that said, I see the streak come to an end as I feel they win 10 games and earn a wc spot...?

I think they take a WR in the second round.

[Domdab99]

I wouldn't be surprised that under Dennison, Tyrod becomes a top ten QB...so I do think it is possible we make the playoffs this season...if not then, then 2018....if not then...yeah, we are in re-building mode and need to start over.

[dorquemada]

when we get a qb..plus 1-2 yrs...so if lucky 2019 or 2020

 

not reading the whole thread but this is the answer. tank this year (unintentionally of course!) use picks to maneuver to wherever we need to be in the draft to pick whomever the best QB is, a year of seasoning then 2020. This pretty much has to be the plan. Who knows, maybe we wont be terrible this year, but 1st year coach, new schemes, lost some players, looks pretty grim.

[The Frankish Reich]

My baseball team is the Rockies. (Yeah, I'm a glutton for punishment.) And they've specialized in the Half Assed Rebuild. Every year they have some good talent, but every year it's clear that they project as a 73-78 win team. And every year some projected 73-78 win team makes the playoffs. So every offseason it's the same: let's tinker with this or that. Let's get marginally better in some phase of the game. But heaven forbid we do what the Astros or Cubs did and take it completely apart and start from scratch. The fans would revolt!

 

That's what disappoints me about this offseason. I saw two defensible paths to take.

 

One was to go all in for 2017. They really aren't far from a playoff team, if by playoff team we mean Dolphins or Texans quality playoff team. I think there's enough talent on this roster to have done that. I advocated restructuring Tyrod's deal and bringing him back, and so when I did that, that's what I thought would happen in the draft - try to get a major impact player at 10. In fact, starting EJ in that last game vs. the Jets for draft position (and to avoid an injury to Tyrod) suggested the same to me. This is the path I preferred. One last shot. All in, and if it doesn't work, full tank in 2018 with an eye toward doing a Cleveland rebuild.

 

The other defensible path was to start the rebuild now. That would've meant handing it over to Cardale or a rookie draft pick and looking for the best value you could get in a trade for Sammy and/or McCoy. You certainly could've made the draft trade with KC in this scenario, but then you'd want to do what Cleveland did and stockpile even more 2018 draft picks for leverage to trade up. And you'd probably go 3-13 or 2-14 and 2018 would be a new beginning.

 

But they steered the middle course, the Rockies Half Assed model. At the trading deadline in 2015 the Rockies traded formerly great SS (and huge contract) Troy Tulowitzki for prospects. Here's the rebuild! Then in the offseason they signed mediocre outfielder Gerardo Parra to a 4 year, $9 million/year contract, and signed/traded for a few aging relievers for a combined $15 million or so. Hey, we're gonna double down on going .500 after all! Crap or get off the pot. For the Bills, it's now a little bit of looking past 2017 to the longer range future, a little bit of trying to field a competitive team in 2017. Trying to please everyone and pleasing no one. Spinning their wheels. Praying that for once half a dozen things break their way and they go 9-7 and get in the playoffs while all the while trying to get better by, say, 2019. Let me just say that this usually doesn't end well, not in the current year, and not in future years.

Edited April 28, 2017 by The Frankish Reich

[Beef Jerky]

When they actually make the playoffs.

[The Frankish Reich]

 

not reading the whole thread but this is the answer. tank this year (unintentionally of course!) use picks to maneuver to wherever we need to be in the draft to pick whomever the best QB is, a year of seasoning then 2020. This pretty much has to be the plan. Who knows, maybe we wont be terrible this year, but 1st year coach, new schemes, lost some players, looks pretty grim.

And I am not so secretly hoping that they do tank this year. It wouldn't take much - Tyrod missing a chunk of games would for sure do it. Probably McCoy too. It's not that I want them to lose any given game; I'll be watching and rooting like hell for them. But the objective side of me sees the value in a 2-14 end ..

[BuffaloBud420]

Hopefully '19 after we get a real QB next year

[Rico]

All up to Pegs. It won't happen until all of Ralph's trash is finally gone.

[SlamnSam]

never

[Alphadawg7]

After the trade down yesterday, I think it's clear that Bills management doesn't think it'll happen in 2017. If they'd thought this team was close, they'd have used that #10 overall to find a clear upgrade at an obvious position of need.

 

So what is the target year now? When could the Bills reasonably project as a 9.5 win (or so) team; that is, a team that is expected/is more likely than not to be in the playoffs? Not as in, "we project as a 7-9 team, but if a bunch of bounces go our way we could sneak into the playoffs at 9-7."

 

2018: they've pretty much signaled that Tyrod is a one year bridge (again) in 2017, and there'll be a new QB in 2018. You wouldn't be stockpiling picks for 2018 expecting to win with rookies right away. Plus you've got some big contracts for aging players in their decline phases still on the books. So ... no. Not yet.

 

2019? I'd guess that McD (not Whaley) thinks this is when he'll have to start showing results. Start showing results, as in "got out from under some of the bad decisions of the Whaley era, and started showing a new core of players that's ready to take the next step."

 

That brings me to 2020 ... I guess all of that could change if we somehow grab a Garoppolo or Cousins and he turns out to be the QB of our dreams, but that seems unlikely. 2020 it is!

 

EDIT: maybe this has something to do with how long they think Brady will last? The recent moves strike me as going into full rebuild mode but being afraid to admit it.

 

Huh, how does that even make sense where I bolded it? We traded down and got a very valuable asset (additional 3rd) in this deep draft that very well could produce a key starter and upgraded the absolute unquestionable biggest need on this team which was DB and still got a massive asset next year in a second first. I mean we needed more than 1 player to contend and this team had only 6 picks in this rich draft. We got one of the top corners in the draft and hopefully will snag another key player in the 3rd where there will be some talented WR's, LB's and DB's on the board still, all of which we need. Could also see us grab a OT or a QB too with that pick.

 

What part of any of that suggests anything you just wrote? I don't understand some of illogical conclusions people come up with around here. I mean we literally did exactly what you said we didn't do, and picked up potentially 2 more starters with the 2 additional picks this year and next.

Edited April 28, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[reddogblitz]

You people realize that if the Bills had just average Defensive play last year that they'd of made the playoffs. TT can absolutely take them there. The offense can regress a little, but if the D progresses they will be in the playoff hunt this year.

 

Yes and No.

 

While a better D would absolutely help, we could have been 9-6 heading into the Jets game (with Hotrod starting and POs on the line) If we could have scored the last time we had the football vs Hawks and Fish.

 

Hotrod needs to come through in a couple of games like that or us to push through. Russell Wilson has to and he has the best D. Roger Staubach did it a lot and had great Ds too (Doomsday anyone?)

 

Even the great 2014 D needed late game offensive heroics to win 3 games (Bears, Lions, and Vikings).

 

We need both IMHO.

Edited April 28, 2017 by reddogblitz

[billsfan_34]

Who cares anymore? This team is complete dysfunction. Until their is a President overseeing everything and the Pegulas out of the picture we will continue to circle the drain.

[Maddog69]

Depends on when Tom Brady is no longer playing in our division

[Do The Reich Thing]

Anyone out there want to argue for 2018? 2019? Come on, convince me that I'm wrong!

I'll argue for this year... 2017! The one thing everyone is overlooking is the Bills are virtually getting three stud talents added to this defense. Shaq, Ragland and White all will go through their 1st full training camps (barring injuries). Add a playmaker in the 2nd or 3rd at wr and the Bills could battle for a wildcard spot this year. Please look at a a comparison of KCs talent to ours... it's not that different. It's all on coaching, and if Buffalo got the right one then we could be in for a great year.

[row_33]

Depends on when Tom Brady is no longer playing in our division

 

The more we lean on that the more we'll see the Pats get an Aaron Rodger 2.0 to replace Brady at the perfect time.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

In 2019 after we pick our QB in 2018.

[wilcoam]

I disagree that we have Sammy and a bunch of #3WR's

I would say we have Sammy and a bunch of #4 and #5 WR's

Hopefully tonight we add real upside #2 and #3 WR's

I love Zay, Goodwin, Kupp, and the hybrid Samuel

Fingers crossed

If we do add someone maybe folks might feel differently about our offensive direction moving forward

Though I feel the 2017 year in terms of wins will be all about the new D scheme and it responds

Without OLB upgrades tonight it also looks scary

 

jc

[PromoTheRobot]

We are a playoff team now. We were one last season but for Fat & Fatter coaching.

[Success]

 

The more we lean on that the more we'll see the Pats get an Aaron Rodger 2.0 to replace Brady at the perfect time.

I was really holding out hope garoppo would get traded yesterday.

 

Watch bb franchise him next year. No one thinks he'll pay 2 Qb's that much, but I think he sees Jimmy as the future.

[YoloinOhio]

I was really holding out hope garoppo would get traded yesterday.

 

Watch bb franchise him next year. No one thinks he'll pay 2 Qb's that much, but I think he sees Jimmy as the future.

im hoping the Browns 257th time calling the Pats on this is the charm. It takes them out of the top QB market next year and weakens the Pats at the QB position if Brady gets hurt.

[row_33]

im hoping the Browns 257th time calling the Pats on this is the charm. It takes them out of the top QB market next year and weakens the Pats at the QB position if Brady gets hurt.

 

I'd like the Bills to try and build a good team even if Brady plays another 5 years...

[LABILLBACKER]

If we don't find a way of picking Sam Darnold it will be 10 more years.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

So ... the answer to my question is? 2019?

 

....emotionally or logically?......emotionally, once the final 53 is cast, there should be about 42,193 posts about 13-3, 12-4, 11-5, 10-6, yada yada......it's called the "17 Year Refrain"......I have it on my victrola, vinyl 45 and 78 versions, 8 track and cassette tapes for your listening pleasure.....logically, assess performance to date in four game increments......don't know how Bflo will fare let alone the other 31......by week 12, you'll know if you should start booking tee times for January.....stay tuned............

[row_33]

 

....emotionally or logically?......emotionally, once the final 53 is cast, there should be about 42,193 posts about 13-3, 12-4, 11-5, 10-6, yada yada......it's called the "17 Year Refrain"......I have it on my victrola, vinyl 45 and 78 versions, 8 track and cassette tapes for your listening pleasure.....logically, assess performance to date in four game increments......don't know how Bflo will fare let alone the other 31......by week 12, you'll know if you should start booking tee times for January.....stay tuned............

 

start of another 3 year program

 

i feel a lot better about this one, the Rex one didn't feel too good and was released after 2 years

[papazoid]

1964, 1965 (25 year break) 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 (25 year break ) 2018, 2019, 2020

[BB2004]

After the trade down yesterday, I think it's clear that Bills management doesn't think it'll happen in 2017. If they'd thought this team was close, they'd have used that #10 overall to find a clear upgrade at an obvious position of need.

 

So what is the target year now? When could the Bills reasonably project as a 9.5 win (or so) team; that is, a team that is expected/is more likely than not to be in the playoffs? Not as in, "we project as a 7-9 team, but if a bunch of bounces go our way we could sneak into the playoffs at 9-7."

 

2018: they've pretty much signaled that Tyrod is a one year bridge (again) in 2017, and there'll be a new QB in 2018. You wouldn't be stockpiling picks for 2018 expecting to win with rookies right away. Plus you've got some big contracts for aging players in their decline phases still on the books. So ... no. Not yet.

 

2019? I'd guess that McD (not Whaley) thinks this is when he'll have to start showing results. Start showing results, as in "got out from under some of the bad decisions of the Whaley era, and started showing a new core of players that's ready to take the next step."

 

That brings me to 2020 ... I guess all of that could change if we somehow grab a Garoppolo or Cousins and he turns out to be the QB of our dreams, but that seems unlikely. 2020 it is!

 

EDIT: maybe this has something to do with how long they think Brady will last? The recent moves strike me as going into full rebuild mode but being afraid to admit it.

 

Sounds about right. When Brady retires that's when we will be ready to pounce. Still need to load up. Would like to see us get Greg Robinson today to play RT from day one.