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Carucci: Disconnect exists between DL and scheme


YoloinOhio

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You said he was trying for click bait;

"It’s too early and would be way too presumptuous to conclude that his scheme, which has a sterling record for success from his days as a defensive coordinator in Baltimore and the previous six years he spent coaching the New York Jets, won’t work here."

 

Full stop. Everything else in that article is in fact click bait. Yolo's posting the defensive stats from the first four games in 2014 and 2015 was way more interesting / informative. Vic could have easily done that...or talkied about how the DL was just as inneffective against Rivers and Brady last year and yet the season turned out alright.

 

Instead, he rips a page from Sully and the Buckster's playbook and phones it in...

Edited by Lurker
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"It’s too early and would be way too presumptuous to conclude that his scheme, which has a sterling record for success from his days as a defensive coordinator in Baltimore and the previous six years he spent coaching the New York Jets, won’t work here."[/size]

 

Full stop. Everything else in that article is in fact click bait. Yolo's posting the defensive stats from the first four games lin 2014 and 2015 was way more interesting / informative. Vic could have easily done that...or talkied about how the DL was just as inneffective against Rivers and Brady last year and yet the season turned out alright. [/size]

 

Instead, he rips a page from Sully and the Buckster's playbook and phones it in...[/size]

I disagree for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is his ability to get 3 of 4 d-linemen on record. And do really think carucci, who is essentially moving back home to buffalo, is worried about clicks? Come on.

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"It’s too early and would be way too presumptuous to conclude that his scheme, which has a sterling record for success from his days as a defensive coordinator in Baltimore and the previous six years he spent coaching the New York Jets, won’t work here."

 

Full stop. Everything else in that article is in fact click bait. Yolo's posting the defensive stats from the first four games in 2014 and 2015 was way more interesting / informative. Vic could have easily done that...or talkied about how the DL was just as inneffective against Rivers and Brady last year and yet the season turned out alright.

 

Instead, he rips a page from Sully and the Buckster's playbook and phones it in...

AKA had the homer take. I guess he coulda done that.

Edited by FireChan
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do really think carucci, who is essentially moving back home to buffalo, is worried about clicks? Come on.

Everybody in the media biz worries about clicks.

 

To paraphrase Marv, if they're not they'll soon be sitting with the fans...

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Brady isn't an outlier. That was a home game and an important one. If there is one game they had to play better, that was it. The scheme was badly exposed in that game by the bills' arch opponent. Let's not wish away the most important game of the season as an "outlier" ...

It was an outlier in that the QB is kind of unique, and that the" scheme" used vs NE was different than the others as they hardly blitzed and played off the WRs as well. Rex said that one was on him . I doubt they will do that in the rematch. I also doubt they will win because they haven't won in Foxboro ( last years joke show finale excluded) in about 15 years. And the biggest factor in that most important of games is that the Bills still don't have a QB anywhere near the caliber of the guy across the field.

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I disagree for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is his ability to get 3 of 4 d-linemen on record. And do really think carucci, who is essentially moving back home to buffalo, is worried about clicks? Come on.

i only read it once but the only one of the 3 who seemed like he wanted to do something other than what he's being asked is Dareus. Kyle and Jerry both seemed to think they were in process of learning but didn't seem like they felt they were being misused. Dareus has no filter so not surprised he's talking about he just wants to do his thing. But IMO these coaches know what they are doing and for all the criticism of Rex letting the players run the show sure isn't the case here.
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It was an outlier in that the QB is kind of unique, and that the" scheme" used vs NE was different than the others as they hardly blitzed and played off the WRs as well. Rex said that one was on him . I doubt they will do that in the rematch. I also doubt they will win because they haven't won in Foxboro ( last years joke show finale excluded) in about 15 years. And the biggest factor in that most important of games is that the Bills still don't have a QB anywhere near the caliber of the guy across the field.

I get what you're trying to say, but in a 4-game sample, there are no outliers (especially if they're home games). As I said above, the TN game will show me a lot. TN is 5th in points per game and 9th in yards, which tells me something. They've played a soft schedule so far, but this is the sort of game in which the bills' defense and front seven in particular need to dominate.

i only read it once but the only one of the 3 who seemed like he wanted to do something other than what he's being asked is Dareus. Kyle and Jerry both seemed to think they were in process of learning but didn't seem like they felt they were being misused. Dareus has no filter so not surprised he's talking about he just wants to do his thing. But IMO these coaches know what they are doing and for all the criticism of Rex letting the players run the show sure isn't the case here.

For the record, i don't think rex is a bad defensive coach at all. I'm questioning the d-line production that I've seen on the tv screen so far. It's early--I know that. But seasons are played in quarters (according to nfl coaches), and this is a perfectly decent time to take stock. I also think the corner play has covered up a lot. It has been great. Ryan gets credit for it too, in my book. Edited by dave mcbride
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He focused on the weaknesses of the secondary in that piece from last season. He says so in the first sentence. This new piece wasn't about the secondary. It was about the front four. And it has nothing to do with outliers. Edited by dave mcbride
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He focused on the weaknesses of the secondary in that piece from last season. He says so in the first sentence. This new piece wasn't about the secondary. It was about the front four. And it has nothing to do with outliers.

Two sacks for -6 yards contributed to the secondary's inneffectiveness. Rivers did the same thing as Eli last week. Short, quick, move-the-chains passes (only one pass deep). Get ahead early and then hang on (four of SDs last five drives were 3-and-outs).

Edited by Lurker
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we didn't sack manning last year but still led the league in sacks right?

 

 

It's more about pressure than sacks.....they just aren't getting much.........though they are also on pace for an anemic showing in the sack department.

 

They simply aren't getting free from their blockers and fracturing/collapsing the pocket like they were last year.

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To say this line is a major dissapointment would be an understatement. Brady and Manning literally destroyed them!

We must have watched two different games, because Manning did a lot of things, but destroying the Bills defense wasn't one of them.

 

But hey...if it makes you feel better to overstate things...

 

Things may not be as good as you would like, but they're not nearly as bad as you and Carucci think they are.

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I'm going to assume that improves as they get more accustomed to the scheme, but it's frustrating to watch right now. People blame it on the QBs getting rid of the ball quick, but the pressure just isn't there. The QBs may be better served holding the ball longer TBH.

 

 

Maybe, but historically the pressure numbers from Rex's D's aren't what a lot of people think they are.

 

His kind of pressure has more traditionally been a free rushing blitzer when the QB and the OL think they have their bases covered in pass protection.

 

Those tend to be slower developing plays that take advantage of 5 and 7 step drops and THOSE situations are really limited when QB's throw very quickly.

 

This scheme just doesn't maximize the talent they have on the DL and he and Dennis Thurman need to fix that.

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Let's start with the simplest stat: snap counts. Q, What do they show? A. Rex has abandoned Schwartz's DL rotation.

 

Week 4 of 2014 vs. 2015 % of defensive downs played:

 

Hughes 51 % vs. 99 %

Mario 76 vs. 99

Kyle 40 vs. 89

Dareus 81 vs. 81

 

Other than Dareus, the starters are playing a lot more. Some of that (Hughes mostly) is from missing Jarius Wynn. But mostly it is Rex "fixing" what wasn't broken. The D line was fresh in the 2nd half last year; they wore down opponents' O lines. Not this year.

Edited by The Frankish Reich
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It's more about pressure than sacks.....they just aren't getting much.........though they are also on pace for an anemic showing in the sack department.

 

They simply aren't getting free from their blockers and fracturing/collapsing the pocket like they were last year.

Weird that they are 8th in the NFL in pressure, but accordng to you they get none.

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Weird that they are 8th in the NFL in pressure, but accordng to you they get none.

 

 

What can I say? They are 8 times worse this year? Some people don't seem to realize the point here. Their pressure numbers are down and their yardage and points allowed are thru the roof.

 

Rex's D has always focused on run defense and congesting the middle of the field. That's why he needs corners who can take away outside receivers.

 

But by herding his elite pass rushers together tightly and putting them in unathletic starting positions he is making it easier for O-lines to slow them.

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I have to question whether you watched the INDY, MIA, and the second half of the NYG game with this post.. Not to mention the offense was stagnant for most of the NE game as well as the NYG game which did the defense no favors.. There's no way you can justify this thinking IMO.

 

@TheJoeMarino

Hearing "#Bills D isn't as good this year. Last year it was elite." Here's how they compare in 1st 4 games. #Relax

 

CQwgl3IWgAA7W5p.png

nice find on the first 4 games stats. I bet we can attribute many of those yards being accumulated by drives being kept alive by stupid penalties and garbage time for Indy and Miami as we started playing prevent in both of those games after the half.

Btw I think we are about to welcome mariota to the NFL, Rex Ryan style.

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The pass rush has been significantly muted.

 

And not just by the quick drops or just in the NE or NYG games.

 

Even when QB's are holding the ball they aren't getting to them as quickly as we've become accustomed for the past couple of seasons.

 

As you noted, the corner play has definitely been better and has covered up some for their uncharacteristic lack of push.

 

I've advocated spreading the DL out more to create wider OL splits and force blockers to defend our DL in space and make teams using the short passing game throw over or thru DL.

 

My guess is that Rex is not using that approach because it structurally weakens the run defense.

 

But that's why you PAID Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams.

 

The strength of Rex Ryan's D early on in NY was it's ability to create both solid run defense and pass rush without requiring exceptional talent on the DL.

 

Now he has a once-in-a-career type 4 man front and he is using them the same way he would any other assembly of talent.

 

We've seen coaches not cater their schemes to the talent at hand before, this is no different.

This! Good post.

Let's start with the simplest stat: snap counts. Q, What do they show? A. Rex has abandoned Schwartz's DL rotation.

 

Week 4 of 2014 vs. 2015 % of defensive downs played:

 

Hughes 51 % vs. 99 %

Mario 76 vs. 99

Kyle 40 vs. 89

Dareus 81 vs. 81

 

Other than Dareus, the starters are playing a lot more. Some of that (Hughes mostly) is from missing Jarius Wynn. But mostly it is Rex "fixing" what wasn't broken. The D line was fresh in the 2nd half last year; they wore down opponents' O lines. Not this year.

This makes a lot of sense.

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Two Things that seem obvious to me:

 

1) All the pre-snap movement and trickery is fooling no one. The next time I see Kyle Williams dropping back into coverage, I'm going to throw something through my TV!

 

2) The lack of rotation, we have seen very little of Stephan Charles, Corbin Bryan, Alex Carrigan, etc. It seems like (i think someone else posted the stats to verify this) that we are not doing that as much, and I have to wonder if it is wearing them down?

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Yawn. Let's see what the rookie does against them on Sunday and revisit this.

 

Love Marcell's quote: "you could put a garbage can in front of me and I can't get to the QB in under two seconds."

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I do look inside the numbers, and they are not a bad defense. But they aren't nearly as good as last season so far. The problem is that they are loaded with talent, and they really aren't getting the pressure they got last year.

 

Carucci is pointing out the manifestly obvious -- and something all of the d-linemen actually agree with!! They can step it up, and they need to. But it appears that guys like williams, dareus, and williams feel like they're being misused. Schwartz is a smart guy and a good dc too. Why is this controversial?

 

It's controversial Dave because you are completely ignoring the fact that statistically where they were last season with Schwartz 4 games in and where the Bills defense is now, are not that far off. And thats playing against Cutler, Rivers, Tannehill and Fitz last year. Of the 11 sacks recorded in those 4 games 7 were recorded against Miami/Houston. The Bills haven't even faced a team with a "Fitz" QB at the helm.

 

As much as people like to ignore it, who the Bills are playing matters. Are we trying to say that the offenses of the Chargers, Bears, Texans are equivalent and should be measured against the Colts, Giants and Pats**. The Pats** have put a beatdown on all three of the teams they've faced thus far so they aren't equivalent to any team the Bills faced in the first 4 games last year and subsequently came in week 6 last year to Buffalo and put a beatdown on the Bills defense. It's funny but if you drop that week 6 Pats performance into the first 4 games and take out the Texans game, because the Bills haven't faced a QB like that yet, suddenly the teams defense looks very very familiar. Look at the numbers:

 

If Pats** game was played in the first 4 weeks and Texans wasn't

Points: 89

Pass Yards: 1158

Yards per pass attempt: 6.81

Completion percentage: 68%

Sacks: 9

Turnovers: 5

 

Do you know where those numbers would have put the Bills last year at that time? I'll tell you. They would have been 31st in total pass yards. They would have been 28th in completion percentage. Hilariously, the 1065 passing yards that they actually did give up last year ranked them 26th and they stayed at that position roughly in passing yards until after week 8.

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damn... 6 pages to read... nah, I'll just say that the D has performed pretty darn good overall. You will never be able to get sacks when 2 of 4 QB's pass the ball in under 2 seconds.

 

Andrew Luck, Tainted Tom and Eli Manning. 3 top dogs in the NFL ranks. It could be a whole lot worse.

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For me the issue isn't stats. What troubles me about this defense is when times are tough and we really need a stop we don't get it, whether it be by air or ground. The Giants' running game wasn't effective statistically, but they got the job done when they needed it.

 

Rex is a great defensive mind, but I think he's being stubborn by forcing his system on this group. Our personnel fits the 4-3, best. Especially against the no-huddle. We simply don't have the time to disguise our coverages and blitzes. When we intentionally line up the wrong way believing we have time to adjust before the snap it hurts us when that snap comes early.

 

Let's go back to the 43 and drop everyone else in coverage. Flood the passing lanes. That will force the QB to hold the ball longer and then the sacks will come. Interceptions, too.

 

You can throw the stats out of the window. To me it's when, not how much.

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Yawn. Let's see what the rookie does against them on Sunday and revisit this.

 

Love Marcell's quote: "you could put a garbage can in front of me and I can't get to the QB in under two seconds."

1. Lets not get cocky and think Mariota is a pushover

 

2. Would that be an industrial garbage can?

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For me the issue isn't stats. What troubles me about this defense is when times are tough and we really need a stop we don't get it, whether it be by air or ground. The Giants' running game wasn't effective statistically, but they got the job done when they needed it.

 

Rex is a great defensive mind, but I think he's being stubborn by forcing his system on this group. Our personnel fits the 4-3, best. Especially against the no-huddle. We simply don't have the time to disguise our coverages and blitzes. When we intentionally line up the wrong way believing we have time to adjust before the snap it hurts us when that snap comes early.

 

Let's go back to the 43 and drop everyone else in coverage. Flood the passing lanes. That will force the QB to hold the ball longer and then the sacks will come. Interceptions, too.

 

You can throw the stats out of the window. To me it's when, not how much.

they are lining up in a 4-3 under or base 4-3 most of the time, not a 3-4. The 4-3 under can look like a 3-4 but disguises intent so the offense doesn't know what is coming on each play based in matchups. Edited by YoloinOhio
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For me the issue isn't stats. What troubles me about this defense is when times are tough and we really need a stop we don't get it, whether it be by air or ground. The Giants' running game wasn't effective statistically, but they got the job done when they needed it.

 

Rex is a great defensive mind, but I think he's being stubborn by forcing his system on this group. Our personnel fits the 4-3, best. Especially against the no-huddle. We simply don't have the time to disguise our coverages and blitzes. When we intentionally line up the wrong way believing we have time to adjust before the snap it hurts us when that snap comes early.

 

Let's go back to the 43 and drop everyone else in coverage. Flood the passing lanes. That will force the QB to hold the ball longer and then the sacks will come. Interceptions, too.

 

You can throw the stats out of the window. To me it's when, not how much.

Most of the time it's the 2 Williams, Dareus and Hughes.....this is a 4-3

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It's controversial Dave because you are completely ignoring the fact that statistically where they were last season with Schwartz 4 games in and where the Bills defense is now, are not that far off. And thats playing against Cutler, Rivers, Tannehill and Fitz last year. Of the 11 sacks recorded in those 4 games 7 were recorded against Miami/Houston. The Bills haven't even faced a team with a "Fitz" QB at the helm.

 

As much as people like to ignore it, who the Bills are playing matters. Are we trying to say that the offenses of the Chargers, Bears, Texans are equivalent and should be measured against the Colts, Giants and Pats**. The Pats** have put a beatdown on all three of the teams they've faced thus far so they aren't equivalent to any team the Bills faced in the first 4 games last year and subsequently came in week 6 last year to Buffalo and put a beatdown on the Bills defense. It's funny but if you drop that week 6 Pats performance into the first 4 games and take out the Texans game, because the Bills haven't faced a QB like that yet, suddenly the teams defense looks very very familiar. Look at the numbers:

 

If Pats** game was played in the first 4 weeks and Texans wasn't

Points: 89

Pass Yards: 1158

Yards per pass attempt: 6.81

Completion percentage: 68%

Sacks: 9

Turnovers: 5

 

Do you know where those numbers would have put the Bills last year at that time? I'll tell you. They would have been 31st in total pass yards. They would have been 28th in completion percentage. Hilariously, the 1065 passing yards that they actually did give up last year ranked them 26th and they stayed at that position roughly in passing yards until after week 8.

As I've said above numerous times, they are not a bad defense now. At all. I'm saying that the fron-four pass rush pressure this year hasn't been as good at applying pressure. That can change, and I hope it does. and again, it's the players who are saying this (and to an extent Ryan). As for last year, they actually didn't play cream puffs. cutler was coming off a huge passing season in 2013 and had 2 great WRs to throw to along with Bennett and Forte. Indeed, they were 2nd in points in 2013 and 8th in yards in 2013, and the question before that game was how do we keep up (Corey Graham ended up saving the day). We saw the Bears healthy, but they had a ton of injuries as the seasn went on. And Tannehill was actually good last year. Rivers is a great qb, although their o-line and rb group ended up being decimated by injuries as the season went on. I'll certainly give you Fitz--Houston's offense wasn't good.

 

My basic point is that i - and I presume all of us -- had super high expectations that this defense would be dominant given the talent, the investment, the track record, and the rep of the new coach. Indeed, i was expecting the production of a first or second ranked unit. As of right now, they aren't. That can change though.

Edited by dave mcbride
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I think our line has been fine. We constantly put pressure on Luck and Tanny... while Brady and Manning got rid of the ball in record time. If the other team has a good enough QB to recognize coverage and get the ball out quick, then that's going to negate even the best rush. The DC's job is to figure out a way to cut off those quick routes, in those games. I think we did a decent job against NYG, but got in our own way with a couple missed plays and penalties.

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they are lining up in a 4-3 under or base 4-3 most of the time, not a 3-4. The 4-3 under can look like a 3-4 but disguises intent so the offense doesn't know what is coming on each play based in matchups.

I guess what I meant to say was go back to the wide nine formation. Stop blitzing and drop guys into coverage. Clutter the passing lanes. QBs will hold the ball longer resulting in more sacks and INTs.

 

When Aaron and McKelvin return this type of defense will be perfect for us. We'll get a ton of coverage sacks.

 

One thing that is being overlooked is all the defensive penalties. Guys being caught out of position because they couldn't adjust in time or communicate well has caused many of those penalties, forcing guys to hold and PI. Scrap the disguised blitzes and coverages. Our talent alone will win the vast majority of matchups. We don't need smoke and mirrors.

I'd also like to add that defense isn't a major concern of mine. I know we'll get better as the season goes on regardless of scheme. Especially with the return of McKelvin and Aaron.

 

The biggest concern we face right now are obviously penalties and injuries. Hopefully we can overcome those obstacles before it's too late.

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My basic point is that i - and I presume all of us -- had super high expectations that this defense would be dominant given the talent, the investment, the track record, and the rep of the new coach. Indeed, i was expecting the production of a first or second ranked unit. As of right now, they aren't. That can change though.

 

And I'd say after 4 games last year people had high expectations, maybe not as high but there was a thread started about bringing back Pettine after 3 games. And the same things were said last year, I remember saying them, that 3 games weren't enough to determine anything.

 

For me, the teams being played and the QBs the Bills defense have faced determine A LOT of how they can be judged.

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I'm not buying this premise. The Bills' defense has looked great in two games (IND and MIA), Pretty good in one game (NYG), and not very good in one game (NE). I recall the Schwartz defense also getting lit up for 37 by Brady and the Patriots in the one game that they really tried. It's still too early to worry about this so called issue IMO. I expect the D will congeal into an excellent unit on a more consistent basis in time.

 

Yeah, people are trying to compare the late season Schwartz D with the early season Ryan. It took awhile for the players to gel in Schwartz's scheme and the same will be true of Ryan's. Same goes for the O. People (myself included) were over optimistic in their early season expectations considering they team was running two new schemes. myself included. It's obvious now it's going to take some time.

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I have to question whether you watched the INDY, MIA, and the second half of the NYG game with this post.. Not to mention the offense was stagnant for most of the NE game as well as the NYG game which did the defense no favors.. There's no way you can justify this thinking IMO.@TheJoeMarino

Hearing "#Bills D isn't as good this year. Last year it was elite." Here's how they compare in 1st 4 games. #Relax

 

CQwgl3IWgAA7W5p.png

Nice job putting some reality into the mix. The defense is performing very well overall and hopefully they will even improve as they get more comfortable with the scheme. They are having issues with quick passes, however, and I'd like to see that get cleaned up. Still, there's only so much defense that's allowed in the NFL these days. Other than trouble with seasoned, elite QBs (not a shock for any team) I see one major thing holding them back and that is...........

 

nice find on the first 4 games stats. I bet we can attribute many of those yards being accumulated by drives being kept alive by stupid penalties and garbage time for Indy and Miami as we started playing prevent in both of those games after the half.Btw I think we are about to welcome mariota to the NFL, Rex Ryan style.

Penalties. They have absolutely been killing themselves with unnecessary penalties. They are the Ravens-like intimidation and overly aggressive play kind of penalties you'd expect from a team bullying others. They aren't unnecessary roughness and late hit to the quarterback (Tom Brady) kind of penalties, the ones that make teams dread playing you. All too often they have just been mental lapses, things a seasoned team shouldn't do as much of as we've been seeing. This could be the result of new schemes being implemented or it could be more emblematic of the style of team the brash Rex Ryan is building. I'm hopeful that it's the former and I suspect that it is. Rex's personality certainly would lead one to believe his team would be undisciplined, but the complexity of his defense makes me think that he's very disciplined in that respect and what we see is his release valve. Let's hope that's the case. Edited by BarleyNY
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I'm not buying this premise. The Bills' defense has looked great in two games (IND and MIA), Pretty good in one game (NYG), and not very good in one game (NE). I recall the Schwartz defense also getting lit up for 37 by Brady and the Patriots in the one game that they really tried. It's still too early to worry about this so called issue IMO. I expect the D will congeal into an excellent unit on a more consistent basis in time.

Couldn't agree more.

 

People have the right to complain if, and this is a big IF given the talent that we have, production (i.e. stopping the opponents from scoring) does not equate to wins after game # 16. I fully expect this unit to be in the top 10 of a lot of statistical categories when the regular season ends and they prepare for the first playoff game in 15 years.

 

R-E-L-A-X with the knee-jerk reaction after only 4 games.

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