VaMilBill Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I have no idea why any coach would take the ball first in overtime in the playoffs. If your defense is supposedly that good and you trust them to get a stop, kick it. Let them get the stop, force a punt and get better field position and higher chances for getting the requisite yards for a FG If your defense stinks and will just allow a TD anyways, you know exactly what you need on offense and have four downs per set of downs to achieve it. Plus if you do score a TD, and your defense stinks, just go for 2 and win the game with your offense and don’t give the other team another chance once it goes to sudden death. It doesn’t seem like a cosmic idea to me. What do I know. 6 26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloButt Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Bills vs Eagles 2.0 game. In college they always let the other team start with the ball. It's the smart way to play it, always!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Their defense was pretty gassed I think…… not that the extra rest really mattered. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I assume they felt the Chiefs were gassed on defense. Only thing I could think of. But looking at the Niners D huffing and puffing on a much shorter drive, you knew they were getting Bills vs Cinci level energy effort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 They made a valid point, even if most don’t agree with it, that the defense needed a break as they just came off the field after getting carved up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPT Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) Yeah it's pretty simple. If you receive the ball first, you get 3 downs to accomplish your goal. If you receive the ball second, you get 4 downs and it makes a lot of decisions easier. Edited February 12 by MPT 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullim4 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I don't disagree with you, but having seen this story many times before as a Bills fan, I go for it on fourth down rather than kick the FG. You know Mahomes and Kelce have a greater than 50 percent chance of marching down the field and scoring the TD. A FG is as good as a punt. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_Cheney Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) This probably cost them the game. Zero strategic advantage to taking the ball first. Edited February 12 by Dick_Cheney 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You win the toss you score a TD or go for it. Kicking a FG just isn't a game winning plan in OT. Especially against Mahommes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 100% you kick off. The defense has the commercial timeouts, plus the coin toss procedure to rest up. A few extra minutes after a full gameplay is not going to get you any more rested. you always want to know what you need to get to win the game. Or tie up this honestly felt like a very McDermott-ish game for Shanahan. Several seemingly small but poor decisions scattered here and there that add up to losing a game that you outplayed the other team in. still don’t understand how they didn’t expect pressure on Key downs in the fourth quarter and overtime. it’s like they were shocked every time. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaMilBill Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: You win the toss you score a TD or go for it. Kicking a FG just isn't a game winning plan in OT. Especially against Mahommes. Even if you receive first, then score a TD, the other team will get the ball too. Why would you take the ball first? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullim4 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, VaMilBill said: Even if you receive first, then score a TD, the other team will get the ball too. Why would you take the ball first? The one reason - if it goes to a third possession, it's sudden death and if you score you win. That's the only reason why I can think you'd do it. 7 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Yeah not a smart move giving Mahomes 4 downs for an entire drive 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfanatic8989 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I mean in the end, does anyone really think SF would march back down and get a TD? But yes I agree overall. You kickoff and see what you need to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, VaMilBill said: I have no idea why any coach would take the ball first in overtime in the playoffs. If your defense is supposedly that good and you trust them to get a stop, kick it. Let them get the stop, force a punt and get better field position and higher chances for getting the requisite yards for a FG If your defense stinks and will just allow a TD anyways, you know exactly what you need on offense and have four downs per set of downs to achieve it. Plus if you do score a TD, and your defense stinks, just go for 2 and win the game with your offense and don’t give the other team another chance once it goes to sudden death. It doesn’t seem like a cosmic idea to me. What do I know. It’s an old school way of thinking to take the ball first, when it used to be sudden death… Because both team get to possess the ball, it now makes more sense to kick, so that you know what you need to do…👍 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralonzo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said: Yeah not a smart move giving Mahomes 4 downs for an entire drive The first or second series for KC iirc went to 4th down and < 1 yard at their own 30 or something. If KC gets the ball first, do they go for it there knowing that failing to convert is an insta-loss? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Ralonzo said: The first or second series for KC iirc went to 4th down and < 1 yard at their own 30 or something. If KC gets the ball first, do they go for it there knowing that failing to convert is an insta-loss? I think they punt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If the receiving team scores a TD and makes the extra point, the worst that can realistically happen is that they are either tied in a game where the next score wins or they have to stop a 2 pointer. If the opponent scores and opts to kick for 1, then the receiving team has the advantage. If they score a FG and can hold the other team to a FG they gain a huge advantage. The only advantage for the kicking team is knowing what they have to do and possibly having 4 downs. SF failed in the game, but the rules are pretty even between kicking and receiving, maybe slightly favoring receiving. SF can blame their loss on being outcoached several times in or near the red zone. 1 minute ago, Simon said: I think they punt It also changes what they might have called in third down. 12 minutes ago, sullim4 said: The one reason - if it goes to a third possession, it's sudden death and if you score you win. That's the only reason why I can think you'd do it. And that is an absolutely huge reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPT Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Ralonzo said: The first or second series for KC iirc went to 4th down and < 1 yard at their own 30 or something. If KC gets the ball first, do they go for it there knowing that failing to convert is an insta-loss? They definitely punt. If you don't get it, the other team is already in field goal range to win the game. And you count on your better defense to force a punt against an offense that has barely functioned all night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The bigger question that needs to be asked is why they abandoned the run from the 2nd quarter until late in the 3rd… They win that game if they stuck with it. Baltimore did the same thing. An incredible rushing team just mailing it in even after immediate success… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPT Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said: If the receiving team scores a TD and makes the extra point, the worst that can realistically happen is that they are either tied in a game where the next score wins or they have to stop a 2 pointer. If the opponent scores and opts to kick for 1, then the receiving team has the advantage. If they score a FG and can hold the other team to a FG they gain a huge advantage. The only advantage for the kicking team is knowing what they have to do and possibly having 4 downs. SF failed in the game, but the rules are pretty even between kicking and receiving, maybe slightly favoring receiving. SF can blame their loss on being outcoached several times in or near the red zone. It also changes what they might have called in third down. And that is an absolutely huge reason. With respect to the bolded, that's only a consideration if the game is tied 35-35 or something. It was 19-19 because neither team could score. You don't base your decision on the mere possibility of 3 scoring drives in a row in this kind of game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 29 minutes ago, MPT said: Yeah it's pretty simple. If you receive the ball first, you get 3 downs to accomplish your goal. If you receive the ball second, you get 4 downs and it makes a lot of decisions easier. Drive 3 is sudden death though and that’s not a minor thing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) 7 minutes ago, MPT said: With respect to the bolded, that's only a consideration if the game is tied 35-35 or something. It was 19-19 because neither team could score. You don't base your decision on the mere possibility of 3 scoring drives in a row in this kind of game. Huh? If each teams scores equally on their first possession then it is back to the very old school rule of first score wins. So…..if first score wins and you win the coin toss is that an advantage or nah? 12 minutes ago, MPT said: Edited February 12 by 4merper4mer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPT Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, NoSaint said: Drive 3 is sudden death though and that’s not a minor thing Possibly a consideration in a shootout. But unless you have zero faith in your defense then you shouldn't worry about low probability scenarios over a high probability scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, VaMilBill said: I have no idea why any coach would take the ball first in overtime in the playoffs. If your defense is supposedly that good and you trust them to get a stop, kick it. Let them get the stop, force a punt and get better field position and higher chances for getting the requisite yards for a FG If your defense stinks and will just allow a TD anyways, you know exactly what you need on offense and have four downs per set of downs to achieve it. Plus if you do score a TD, and your defense stinks, just go for 2 and win the game with your offense and don’t give the other team another chance once it goes to sudden death. It doesn’t seem like a cosmic idea to me. What do I know. in regular season if you have confidence in your D you kick off, you kick off. Play strong D stop them and then get ball and kick a FG. If you have a strong offense like buffalo/ kc or you fear the other teams offense, you get the ball first to get a TD and win in the playoffs it’s not TD snd win, they get the ball. Sure you can play the game of see what thry get first, thrn if it’s a TD you have every intent on going for 2 if you get a TD. remember…If KC was held to a FG then SF gets the ball marches down, kicks a FG and wins. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 33 minutes ago, MPT said: Yeah it's pretty simple. If you receive the ball first, you get 3 downs to accomplish your goal. If you receive the ball second, you get 4 downs and it makes a lot of decisions easier. That’s not entirely true. If you’re KC down three and face 4th and 2 from your own 25, of course. How about 4th and 2 inside FG range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPT Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said: Huh? If each teams scores equally on their first possession then it is back to the very old school rule of first score wins. So…..if first score wins and you win the coin toss is that an advantage or nah? Well yeah if first score wins then you take the ball. But that's not the rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaMilBill Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, sullim4 said: The one reason - if it goes to a third possession, it's sudden death and if you score you win. That's the only reason why I can think you'd do it. That is absurd thinking in my opinion 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MPT said: Well yeah if first score wins then you take the ball. But that's not the rule. It is exactly the rule if both teams score equally on their first drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jukester Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) 32 minutes ago, sullim4 said: The one reason - if it goes to a third possession, it's sudden death and if you score you win. That's the only reason why I can think you'd do it. Yep exactly, I posted this in the game thread. I’m not saying there isn’t a case for receiving but totally understand why you take the ball. Technically it’s the correct choice. The first coach that kicks and then loses in this scenario will get reamed for not choosing to receive the kick. Edited February 12 by Jukester 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You always kick IMO. If they had kicked and the Chiefs got their TD first, 49ers would have been much better off. Then they are forced to go for it on 4th downs, and can't settle for a FG. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Jukester said: Yep exactly, I posted this in the game thread. I’m not saying there isn’t a case for receiving but totally understand why you take the call. Technically it’s the correct choice. The first coach that kicks and then loses in this scenario will get reamed for not choosing to receive the kick. I think they would only face the wrath if each team scored scored equally on their first drive….0, 3 or 7, then the receiving team scored. If the receiving team scored then the kicking team failed, no real fallout for the coach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jukester Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said: I think they would only face the wrath if each team scored scored equally on their first drive….0, 3 or 7, then the receiving team scored. If the receiving team scored then the kicking team failed, no real fallout for the coach. Yes, that’s exactly the point being made by the poster I quoted and agreed with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Drive 3 is sudden death though and that’s not a minor thing But Mahomes would just go for 2. And you still risk losing never having touched it again and having given him an extra down to get in. Short of stopping the best player in football with 4 downs at his disposal every time the BEST case scenario actually is you bring the game down to a 2 point conversion attempt. That is a better than 50/50 proposition for above average offenses according to the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: But Mahomes would just go for 2. And you still risk losing never having touched it again and having given him an extra down to get in. Short of stopping the best player in football with 4 downs at his disposal every time the BEST case scenario actually is you bring the game down to a 2 point conversion attempt. That is a better than 50/50 proposition for above average offenses according to the data. It’s not an extra down inside FG range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said: It’s not an extra down inside FG range. Even if you achieve best case scenario on your opening drive and score a TD, you then put your defense at a big disadvantage because the best QB in the NFL has 4 downs the entire drive to score a TD and then go for 2. You never take the ball first. IMO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, BBFL said: The bigger question that needs to be asked is why they abandoned the run from the 2nd quarter until late in the 3rd… They win that game if they stuck with it. Baltimore did the same thing. An incredible rushing team just mailing it in even after immediate success… it wasn’t like you described. drive 1 the go down the field and fumble Drive 2 penalties kills drive cresting a 2nd and 27. Punt drive 3 1st and 10 on kc 33 , lost 4 on run, kick FG drive 4 ball deep in own end. First 2 runs no game, 3rd and 9, punt drive 5 TD drive 6 end of half kneel down drive 7 got turnover and did nothing. They threw drive 8 first play for big loss. 3 and out Punt drive 9 first down run no gain, 2 passes then punt drive 10 lost on punt touch/ fumble turnover drive 11 TD drive 12 FG on 2nd and 5 they could have ran it on plays before 2 min and the play after 3 min. I would have thrown for 1st down at 3rd and 5+ because getting a first could have meant winning the game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Process said: Even if you achieve best case scenario on your opening drive and score a TD, you then put your defense at a big disadvantage because the best QB in the NFL has 4 downs the entire drive to score a TD and then go for 2. You never take the ball first. IMO I’m not saying there isn’t a case to be made for kicking. I’m saying simply dismissing the advantages that come from receiving is results oriented thinking based on tonight’s game.. The rule should be designed to be fair to both teams, kicking and receiving, and I think for the most part it is fair. There are advantages and disadvantages to each choice. Personally I can’t think of anything more 50/50 without being hokey. The college stuff is hokey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sounds smart, but you're also giving up the chance to just close the game right away. You get first crack at finishing the game, and the odds say that the team with possession first wins more often. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, djp14150 said: it wasn’t like you described. drive 1 the go down the field and fumble Drive 2 penalties kills drive cresting a 2nd and 27. Punt drive 3 1st and 10 on kc 33 , lost 4 on run, kick FG drive 4 ball deep in own end. First 2 runs no game, 3rd and 9, punt drive 5 TD drive 6 end of half kneel down drive 7 got turnover and did nothing. They threw drive 8 first play for big loss. 3 and out Punt drive 9 first down run no gain, 2 passes then punt drive 10 lost on punt touch/ fumble turnover drive 11 TD drive 12 FG on 2nd and 5 they could have ran it on plays before 2 min and the play after 3 min. I would have thrown for 1st down at 3rd and 5+ because getting a first could have meant winning the game. But it was… They only rushed the ball 5 times between the FG to start the 2nd and TD in the start of the 4th… 3 of those 5 attempts were by McCaffrey. 1 by Deebo and the other by Mitchell. KC defended the run well but you don’t abandon it when it was your bread and butter to get you to the SB… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.