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Kick the Ball in Overtime


VaMilBill

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5 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

If the receiving team scores a TD and makes the extra point, the worst that can realistically happen is that they are either tied in a game where the next score wins or they have to stop a 2 pointer.  If the opponent scores and opts to kick for 1, then the receiving team has the advantage.  If they score a FG and can hold the other team to a FG they gain a huge advantage.  The only advantage for the kicking team is knowing what they have to do and possibly having 4 downs.  SF failed in the game, but the rules are pretty even between kicking and receiving, maybe slightly favoring receiving.  
 

SF can blame their loss on being outcoached several times in or near the red zone.

It also changes what they might have called in third down.

And that is an absolutely huge reason.

 

With respect to the bolded, that's only a consideration if the game is tied 35-35 or something. It was 19-19 because neither team could score. You don't base your decision on the mere possibility of 3 scoring drives in a row in this kind of game. 

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29 minutes ago, MPT said:

Yeah it's pretty simple. If you receive the ball first, you get 3 downs to accomplish your goal. If you receive the ball second, you get 4 downs and it makes a lot of decisions easier.

Drive 3 is sudden death though and that’s not a minor thing

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7 minutes ago, MPT said:

 

With respect to the bolded, that's only a consideration if the game is tied 35-35 or something. It was 19-19 because neither team could score. You don't base your decision on the mere possibility of 3 scoring drives in a row in this kind of game. 

Huh?  If each teams scores equally on their first possession then it is back to the very old school rule of first score wins.  So…..if first score wins and you win the coin toss is that an advantage or nah?

12 minutes ago, MPT said:
Edited by 4merper4mer
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1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

Drive 3 is sudden death though and that’s not a minor thing

 

Possibly a consideration in a shootout. But unless you have zero faith in your defense then you shouldn't worry about low probability scenarios over a high probability scenario.

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30 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

I have no idea why any coach would take the ball first in overtime in the playoffs. If your defense is supposedly that good and you trust them to get a stop, kick it. Let them get the stop, force a punt and get better field position and higher chances for getting the requisite yards for a FG 

 

If your defense stinks and will just allow a TD anyways, you know exactly what you need on offense and have four downs per set of downs to achieve it. Plus if you do score a TD, and your defense stinks, just go for 2 and win the game with your offense and don’t give the other team another chance once it goes to sudden death. 
 

It doesn’t seem like a cosmic idea to me. What do I know. 


 

in regular season if you have confidence in your D you kick off, you kick off. Play strong D stop them and then get ball and kick a FG.  If you have a strong offense like buffalo/ kc or you fear the other teams offense, you get the ball first to get a TD and win

 

in the playoffs it’s not TD snd win, they get the ball. Sure you can play the game of see what thry get first, thrn if it’s a TD you have every intent on going for 2 if you get a TD.  
 

remember…If KC was held to a FG then SF gets the ball marches down, kicks a FG and wins.

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33 minutes ago, MPT said:

Yeah it's pretty simple. If you receive the ball first, you get 3 downs to accomplish your goal. If you receive the ball second, you get 4 downs and it makes a lot of decisions easier.

That’s not entirely true.  If you’re KC down three and face 4th and 2 from your own 25, of course.  How about 4th and 2 inside FG range?

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2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Huh?  If each teams scores equally on their first possession then it is back to the very old school rule of first score wins.  So…..if first score wins and you win the coin toss is that an advantage or nah?

 

 

Well yeah if first score wins then you take the ball. But that's not the rule.

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30 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

 

The one reason - if it goes to a third possession, it's sudden death and if you score you win.

 

That's the only reason why I can think you'd do it.

That is absurd thinking in my opinion 

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32 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

 

The one reason - if it goes to a third possession, it's sudden death and if you score you win.

 

That's the only reason why I can think you'd do it.

Yep exactly, I posted this in the game thread. I’m not saying there isn’t a case for receiving but totally understand why you take the ball. Technically it’s the correct choice. The first coach that kicks and then loses in this scenario will get reamed for not choosing to receive the kick. 

Edited by Jukester
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1 minute ago, Jukester said:

Yep exactly, I posted this in the game thread. I’m not saying there isn’t a case for receiving but totally understand why you take the call. Technically it’s the correct choice. The first coach that kicks and then loses in this scenario will get reamed for not choosing to receive the kick. 

I think they would only face the wrath if each team scored scored equally on their first drive….0, 3 or 7, then the receiving team scored.  If the receiving team scored then the kicking team failed, no real fallout for the coach.

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1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think they would only face the wrath if each team scored scored equally on their first drive….0, 3 or 7, then the receiving team scored.  If the receiving team scored then the kicking team failed, no real fallout for the coach.

Yes, that’s exactly the point being made by the poster I quoted and agreed with. 

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9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Drive 3 is sudden death though and that’s not a minor thing

 

But Mahomes would just go for 2. And you still risk losing never having touched it again and having given him an extra down to get in. Short of stopping the best player in football with 4 downs at his disposal every time the BEST case scenario actually is you bring the game down to a 2 point conversion attempt. That is a better than 50/50 proposition for above average offenses according to the data.

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But Mahomes would just go for 2. And you still risk losing never having touched it again and having given him an extra down to get in. Short of stopping the best player in football with 4 downs at his disposal every time the BEST case scenario actually is you bring the game down to a 2 point conversion attempt. That is a better than 50/50 proposition for above average offenses according to the data.

It’s not an extra down inside FG range.

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1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

It’s not an extra down inside FG range.

Even if you achieve best case scenario on your opening drive and score a TD, you then put your defense at a big disadvantage because the best QB in the NFL has 4 downs the entire drive to score a TD and then go for 2. 

 

You never take the ball first. 

IMO

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14 minutes ago, BBFL said:

The bigger question that needs to be asked is why they abandoned the run from the 2nd quarter until late in the 3rd…

 

They win that game if they stuck with it. 
 

Baltimore did the same thing. An incredible rushing team just mailing it in even after immediate success… 


it wasn’t like you described.
 

drive 1 the go down the field and fumble

Drive 2 penalties kills drive cresting a 2nd and 27.  Punt

drive 3 1st and 10 on kc 33 , lost 4 on run, kick FG

drive 4 ball deep in own end. First 2 runs no game, 3rd and 9, punt

drive 5 TD

drive 6 end of half kneel down

 

drive 7 got turnover and did nothing. They threw

drive 8 first play for big loss. 3 and out Punt

drive 9 first down run no gain, 2 passes then punt

drive 10 lost on punt touch/ fumble turnover 

drive 11 TD

drive 12 FG on 2nd and 5 they could have ran it on plays before 2 min and the play after 3 min.  I would have thrown for 1st down at 3rd and 5+ because getting a first could have meant winning the game.  

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Process said:

Even if you achieve best case scenario on your opening drive and score a TD, you then put your defense at a big disadvantage because the best QB in the NFL has 4 downs the entire drive to score a TD and then go for 2. 

 

You never take the ball first. 

IMO

I’m not saying there isn’t a case to be made for kicking.  I’m saying simply dismissing the advantages that come from receiving is results oriented thinking based on tonight’s game..  The rule should be designed to be fair to both teams, kicking and receiving, and I think for the most part it is fair.  There are advantages and disadvantages to each choice.  Personally I can’t think of anything more 50/50 without being hokey.  The college stuff is hokey.  

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12 minutes ago, djp14150 said:


it wasn’t like you described.
 

drive 1 the go down the field and fumble

Drive 2 penalties kills drive cresting a 2nd and 27.  Punt

drive 3 1st and 10 on kc 33 , lost 4 on run, kick FG

drive 4 ball deep in own end. First 2 runs no game, 3rd and 9, punt

drive 5 TD

drive 6 end of half kneel down

 

drive 7 got turnover and did nothing. They threw

drive 8 first play for big loss. 3 and out Punt

drive 9 first down run no gain, 2 passes then punt

drive 10 lost on punt touch/ fumble turnover 

drive 11 TD

drive 12 FG on 2nd and 5 they could have ran it on plays before 2 min and the play after 3 min.  I would have thrown for 1st down at 3rd and 5+ because getting a first could have meant winning the game.  

 

 

 

 

 


But it was… They only rushed the ball 5 times between the FG to start the 2nd and TD in the start of the 4th…

 

3 of those 5 attempts were by McCaffrey. 1 by Deebo and the other by Mitchell. 
 

KC defended the run well but you don’t abandon it when it was your bread and butter to get you to the SB…

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