2024 WR Draft Class

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Oh... well if they met at the Senior Bowl then obviously the Bills interviewed him... so the entire notion of him being off the table for us is out the window.

 

I mean, no one's completely off the table for us until we don't Draft them.

 

But as I said previously, I don't believe we've ever skipped the Combine interview and selected someone in Round 1. It's maybe the most important part of the evaluation for this regime. 

 

And as for meeting him at the Senior Bowl, there's two things at play there:

 

1.) Every single player at the Senior Bowl meets with every team. It's a requirement. Teams can choose to request a longer meeting, but there's no knowing whether we did or were just meeting with him bc we had to.

 

2.) When we've drafted players we met at the Senior Bowl in Round 1, we met with them again at the Combine. Not an either or situation. We don't bring our entire staff to the Senior Bowl.

 

And to that end, here is a list of Senior Bowl players we met with at the Senior Bowl this year like McConkey and then did the more important Combine interview as well:

 

Xavier Legette - WR South Carolina
Devontez Walker - WR North Carolina
Roman Wilson - WR Michigan
Kameron Kinchens - S Miami
Payton Wilson - LB NC State
Byron Murphy II - DT Texas
Javon Solomon - DE Troy
Jalyx Hunt - DE Houston Christian
Patrick Paul - OT Houston

 

That's a pretty long list of guys that we chose to meet with at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine. McConkey was not one of them.

 

When you put all these things together, it doesn't *completely* eliminate him. He could be the first player that bucks the trend. But with how important the Combine interview is and how methodical this regime is, the idea that it means nothing that we didn't do the, to this date, pre-requisite job interview is pretty unlikely to me. I don't see him being in play at the moment. If we don't interview him at the Combine and we don't bring him in for a Pre-Draft visit, you can pretty much cross him off the Draft Board completely.

Edited March 4 by BillsFanForever19

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I mean, no one's completely off the table for us until we don't Draft them.

 

But as I said previously, I don't believe we've ever skipped the Combine interview and selected someone in Round 1. It's maybe the most important part of the evaluation for this regime. 

 

And as for meeting him at the Senior Bowl, there's two things at play there:

 

1.) Every single player at the Senior Bowl meets with every team. It's a requirement. Teams can choose to request a longer meeting, but there's no knowing whether we did or were just meeting with him bc we had to.

 

2.) When we've drafted players we met at the Senior Bowl in Round 1, we met with them again at the Combine. Not an either or situation. We don't bring our entire staff to the Senior Bowl.

 

And to that end, here is a list of Senior Bowl players we met with at the Senior Bowl this year like McConkey and then did the more important Combine interview as well:

 

Xavier Legette - WR South Carolina
Devontez Walker - WR North Carolina
Roman Wilson - WR Michigan
Kameron Kinchens - S Miami
Payton Wilson - LB NC State
Byron Murphy II - DT Texas
Javon Solomon - DE Troy
Jalyx Hunt - DE Houston Christian
Patrick Paul - OT Houston

 

That's a pretty long list of guys that we chose to meet with at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine. McConkey was not one of them.

 

When you put all these things together, it doesn't *completely* eliminate him. He could be the first player that bucks the trend. But with how important the Combine interview is and how methodical this regime is, the idea that it means nothing that we didn't do the, to this date, pre-requisite job interview is pretty unlikely to me. I don't see him being in play at the moment. If we don't interview him at the Combine or bring him in for a Pre-Draft visit, you can pretty much cross him off the Draft Board completely.

I get the logic, which you have extensively outlined several times now.

This is likely correct, and plausible, but the more you repeat it, the more I find myself hoping they select him.

Even though I think they need to get a big X at #28 . . . 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I mean, no one's completely off the table for us until we don't Draft them.

 

But as I said previously, I don't believe we've ever skipped the Combine interview and selected someone in Round 1. It's maybe the most important part of the evaluation for this regime. 

 

And as for meeting him at the Senior Bowl, there's two things at play there:

 

1.) Every single player at the Senior Bowl meets with every team. It's a requirement. Teams can choose to request a longer meeting, but there's no knowing whether we did or were just meeting with him bc we had to.

 

2.) When we've drafted players we met at the Senior Bowl in Round 1, we met with them again at the Combine. Not an either or situation. We don't bring our entire staff to the Senior Bowl.

 

And to that end, here is a list of Senior Bowl players we met with at the Senior Bowl this year like McConkey and then did the more important Combine interview as well:

 

Xavier Legette - WR South Carolina
Devontez Walker - WR North Carolina
Roman Wilson - WR Michigan
Kameron Kinchens - S Miami
Payton Wilson - LB NC State
Byron Murphy II - DT Texas
Javon Solomon - DE Troy
Jalyx Hunt - DE Houston Christian
Patrick Paul - OT Houston

 

That's a pretty long list of guys that we chose to meet with at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine. McConkey was not one of them.

 

When you put all these things together, it doesn't *completely* eliminate him. He could be the first player that bucks the trend. But with how important the Combine interview is and how methodical this regime is, the idea that it means nothing that we didn't do the, to this date, pre-requisite job interview is pretty unlikely to me. I don't see him being in play at the moment. If we don't interview him at the Combine and we don't bring him in for a Pre-Draft visit, you can pretty much cross him off the Draft Board completely.

So what you’re saying is we’re drafting Xavier Legette?

[BillsFanForever19]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I get the logic, which you have extensively outlined several times now.

This is likely correct, and plausible, but the more you repeat it, the more I find myself hoping they select him.

Even though I think they need to get a big X at #28 . . . 

 

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So what you’re saying is we’re drafting Xavier Legette?

 

Legette is a higher likelihood to me as a.) We did meet with him at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine and more importantly b.) He is a true "big X" that fits what we're looking for much more than a guy who is looked at more as either a Slot or an Inside/Outside Tweener type. I'm very high on Legette and his fit here. Especially after a strong Combine.

 

But we could just as easily go with a guy we met at the Combine who wasn't at the Senior Bowl and is a top prospect. That's a long list of guys too:

 

Brian Thomas Jr. - LSU

Adonai Mitchell - Texas

Xavier Worthy - Texas 

Keon Coleman - Florida State

Troy Franklin - Oregon 

Edited March 4 by BillsFanForever19

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Who would you say is the best WR when plays break down and the QB is out of the pocket?

[BillsFanForever19]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Who would you say is the best WR when plays break down and the QB is out of the pocket?

 

Probably Keon Coleman? But it really depends on what you mean.

 

There really isn't a metric for "guy who comes open late in an improvisational manner". But Coleman's whole game is a RIDICULOUS win percentage on contested balls.

 

However, the feeling with that was that he was able to attain that contested catch rate because he can't create separation, thus necessitating a need to win contested.

 

Then he went to the Combine and ran a 4.65 40. Pretty much confirming it. Although, he looked EXTREMELY good on drills - that drops him for me. 

[OldTimer1960]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Who would you say is the best WR when plays break down and the QB is out of the pocket?

When I watched Brendan Rice, he never seemed to stop running no matter how long the QB held the ball.  I’m guessing that you might possibly be able to get him at 99.

[DCOrange]

35 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Who would you say is the best WR when plays break down and the QB is out of the pocket?

Of the guys I've watched film on so far, I would say Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall, Ladd McConkey, Jacob Cowing, and then maybe Brenden Rice and Roman Wilson. And absolutely not to Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Hard to say with Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin as Thomas' QB never really bought time outside of the pocket to throw and Franklin's threw the ball so quickly there were very limited opportunities for these sorts of extended plays.

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

When I watched Brendan Rice, he never seemed to stop running no matter how long the QB held the ball.  I’m guessing that you might possibly be able to get him at 99.

This is right. The USC guys especially Rice because Caleb Williams went off script soooo often. 

[section122]

21 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I'm sure a few WRs will slip through the cracks; I'm really just doing the metrics thing for fun. As I mentioned, Zay Flowers for example was relatively low when I applied the same system to the 2023 class. Having said that, Mitchell came out with a score of -4.98, 115th out of 129. WRs that ranked 100th or worse from the prior two classes:

• Kayshon Boutte
• Tyler Scott
• Isaiah Weston
• Grant Dubose
• Bryce Ford-Wheaton
• Charlie Jones
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Tyquan Thornton
• Johnny Johnson III
• Makai Polk
• Tanner Conner
• Antoine Green
• Justin Shorter
• Jake Bobo
• Jalen Wayne
• Ty Fryfogle
• Slade Bolden
• Braylon Sanders

Jayden Reed is the lowest rated in my database that has shown he might be good; he was 86th. Perhaps Mitchell will be the outlier from that group.

 

Worthy isn't too bad on the metrics; roughly in the top third of the group over the last three years.

 

I think dontayvion wicks showed well this year. 

 

Jake bobo also got a lot of good press in seattle.  

[BillsFanForever19]

I wonder who Josh likes and prefers?

 

I remember watching an interview with Beane at the Combine where he said Josh tells him about Mock Draft Simulators he does, who he got, where he got them, etc.

 

Pretty entertaining to hear that he does Mocks like the rest of us. Gotta imagine he has his favorites as well. And who he prefers may play a small part in who we pick if Beane's choosing between a couple different guys.

Edited March 5 by BillsFanForever19

[DCOrange]

31 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I think dontayvion wicks showed well this year. 

 

Jake bobo also got a lot of good press in seattle.  

Would you feel good if our first round pick matches Bobo’s 196 yards as a rookie?

 

Wicks was solid as the #3 in GB this year. 

[section122]

8 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Would you feel good if our first round pick matches Bobo’s 196 yards as a rookie?

 

Wicks was solid as the #3 in GB this year. 

 

 

Bobo was a udfa and wicks was a 5th rounder.  I was just mentioning guys that showed something in year 1.  

 

It will be interesting as more data points get added to your metrcis system if it holds.  Its certainly off to a good start.

[Dan in Owego]

Anyone with with thoughts on Bub Means? Like his size and demeanor on the field and could be had in the later rounds.

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, Dan in Owego said:

Anyone with with thoughts on Bub Means? Like his size and demeanor on the field and could be had in the later rounds.

sure, I’d take him in the later rounds

[Dan in Owego]

During his combine interview he said the Bills showed a lot of interest, kinda gives me Gabe vibes with better mitts.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I wonder who Josh likes and prefers?

 

I remember watching an interview with Beane at the Combine where he said Josh tells him about Mock Draft Simulators he does, who he got, where he got them, etc.

 

Pretty entertaining to hear that he does Mocks like the rest of us. Gotta imagine he has his favorites as well. And who he prefers may play a small part in who we pick if Beane's choosing between a couple different guys.

I didn’t hear about the mock draft part. Pretty cool! 

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

Anyone with with thoughts on Bub Means? Like his size and demeanor on the field and could be had in the later rounds.

He's in my could be better than round they drafted in. I like him and Cornelius Johnson in that sense.

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

WR talk Starts at 5:38

[NewEra]

19 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Give me your top 2 contested catch WRs not named Marvin Harrison Jr, Nabers, or Odunze?

Keon Coleman?  No thanks, maybe rd 2-3

[Nephilim17]

Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"? 

I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...

[JohnBonhamRocks]

2 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"? 

I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...

Marquise Brown as a rookie was 5’9”, 166 lbs, and ran 4.27. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"? 

I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...

I don't think those exact dimensions have ever been done before but Devonta Smith (6'0" 175) and Jordan Addison (5'11" 173) are close. Guys his size generally do not blow up in the NFL and guys with his speed generally do not blow up in the NFL, so he'll be an outlier if he's good. He's definitely talented though, and I say that as someone that does not want him lol.

Edited March 5 by DCOrange

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"? 

I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...

Worthy measured 5’11”, not 6’1”, as advertised.

[ngbills]

AD Mitchell vs Gabe Davis - Draft Profile Comps

 

Very similar size but Mitchell is much more athletic - faster, jump higher and farther, etc. 

 

40 Time - Mitchell 4.34 vs 4.54

10 yd split - Mitchell 1.52 vs 1.56

Vert Jump - Mitchell 39.5 vs 35

Broad Jump - 11'4 vs 10'4

Ht and Wt - Mitchell 6'2, 205 vs 6'2, 216

Hand - Mitchell 9 vs 9 1/4

Arm - Mitchell 32 3/8 vs 32 1/4

 

[Nephilim17]

Thanks, guys.

So Marquise Brown is 2 inches shorter and the same weight and Jordan Addison is the same height and 8 lb heavier.

 

Not a huge history of precedents at this size... And I would argue that 8 lb makes a difference. If it doesn't subtract it from 165 and see if that doesn't scare the hell out of you.

I think this kid could make a lot of big plays but I'd be willing to bet a couple good hits from some NFL safeties might take him out for a while...

[Pete]

20 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Probably Keon Coleman? But it really depends on what you mean.

 

There really isn't a metric for "guy who comes open late in an improvisational manner". But Coleman's whole game is a RIDICULOUS win percentage on contested balls.

 

However, the feeling with that was that he was able to attain that contested catch rate because he can't create separation, thus necessitating a need to win contested.

 

Then he went to the Combine and ran a 4.65 40. Pretty much confirming it. Although, he looked EXTREMELY good on drills - that drops him for me. 

Coleman can’t separate and only won 33% of contested catches.  I’m not sure why any team would consider him in the first round.  I don’t want him in the second either.  Too many other great WR and more team needs 

[OldTimer1960]

Regardless of whether Bills met with him or not, I really enjoyed watching 3 games of Ladd McConkey (Alabama, Auburn, Oregon (22)).  His footwork is amazing.
 

I know he isn’t an X and the Bills need a big X, but what the Bills really need are good offensive weapons and to my eyes he is a good one.  I’m not saying they should take him, but I would sure understand if they do and then look for another guy to play Davis’ role in a low-end FA or later (maybe Javon Baker if he is around near the 4th).  I would not count on Justin Shorter, but I would not discount him getting some play time at X.

[Billsfan4588]

So far I've only watched Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Legette on tape. I hate the fact that Legette looks the best to me out of those 3. Haven't gone in depth yet but he seems to be able to do everything Mitchell and Thomas can do, but far more physical, reminds me of Deebo. Time will tell

[KDIGGZ]

7 hours ago, ngbills said:

AD Mitchell vs Gabe Davis - Draft Profile Comps

 

Very similar size but Mitchell is much more athletic - faster, jump higher and farther, etc. 

 

40 Time - Mitchell 4.34 vs 4.54

10 yd split - Mitchell 1.52 vs 1.56

Vert Jump - Mitchell 39.5 vs 35

Broad Jump - 11'4 vs 10'4

Ht and Wt - Mitchell 6'2, 205 vs 6'2, 216

Hand - Mitchell 9 vs 9 1/4

Arm - Mitchell 32 3/8 vs 32 1/4

 

Watch his tape. He can have all of the measurements and still be very underwhelming

[Dr. Who]

27 minutes ago, Billsfan4588 said:

So far I've only watched Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Legette on tape. I hate the fact that Legette looks the best to me out of those 3. Haven't gone in depth yet but he seems to be able to do everything Mitchell and Thomas can do, but far more physical, reminds me of Deebo. Time will tell

Why would you hate that? Legette is the one almost sure to be there at #28.

 

[KOKBILLS]

2 hours ago, Billsfan4588 said:

So far I've only watched Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Legette on tape. I hate the fact that Legette looks the best to me out of those 3. Haven't gone in depth yet but he seems to be able to do everything Mitchell and Thomas can do, but far more physical, reminds me of Deebo. Time will tell

 

I really like Legette... I agree with the Deebo thing more as a projection than anything. As in I think Legette can be that kind of weapon for an NFL Offense given some time in the right system. He's a little stiff...Not the most fluid route runner or anything like that...But he could be a walking talking business decision for DB's as a RAC option... The guy looks like he's going to break a million tackles, but he did not do that much in College. He can definitely fly if you give him space and he seems to have really good hands...I think he only had a couple drops in 2023...

 

None of these players are a finished product, and that goes for Legette too... But get him in the right system used properly and he could be really, really special. 

Edited March 6 by KOKBILLS

[BillsFanForever19]

29 minutes ago, Billsfan4588 said:

So far I've only watched Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Legette on tape. I hate the fact that Legette looks the best to me out of those 3. Haven't gone in depth yet but he seems to be able to do everything Mitchell and Thomas can do, but far more physical, reminds me of Deebo. Time will tell

 

Why do you hate it? Because he's 1 year older than your standard Senior having spent 5 years in College or the 1 season of production?

 

That's what makes him in play for us, honestly. If he had come out after Year 3 at age 21 instead of Year 5 at 23 and had a big multiyear resume of production - he'd be a sure fire Top 10 pick. 

 

The NFL is littered with guys who had 1 year of production or guys who had very little production in College and flourished because of their traits and scheme fit.

 

Picking where we are, you're not going to find a WR with his speed, build, and playmaking ability without a couple questions marks. And in my opinion, the Pros outweigh the Cons.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

9 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"? 

I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...

Well no one has run 4.21 so there’s no one like him.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Why do you hate it? Because he's 1 year older than your standard Senior having spent 5 years in College or the 1 season of production?

 

That's what makes him in play for us, honestly. If he had come out after Year 3 at age 21 instead of Year 5 at 23 and had a big multiyear resume of production - he'd be a sure fire Top 10 pick. 

 

The NFL is littered with guys who had 1 year of production or guys who had very little production in College and flourished because of their traits and scheme fit.

 

Picking where we are, you're not going to find a WR with his speed, build, and playmaking ability without a couple questions marks. And in my opinion, the Pros outweigh the Cons.

I think he’s the most impressive. I get more of an AJ Brown vibe from him.

[Dan in Owego]

More from 89, some interesting takes from scouts at the combine.

[947]

Anybody else get Moulds vibes when watching Legette?

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

9 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Are there any examples of very successful WRs who are Worthy's height and weight — 165 lb at over 5'11"? 

I though he was 178 but that 165 number is not sitting well with me...

Yeah I don't know of any modern era WR's who are at 175lb range that were full time starters that were successful. 

 

We need a guy who can come in and start opposite Diggss then take over for him.  A 165lb WR isn't going to do that imho.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

Let's not overthink this. Just do whatever it takes to trade up for Nabers or Rome and laugh all the way to the bank