Cvanvol7 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Doing some AI questioning today because I feel like this fact continues to be mentioned but glossed over. Is this actually right? It looks like it is almost statistically impossible for a team to get into the situation the bills possibly face on Sunday. This terrifies me as it seems incredibly cursed for us to find the team facing this....... This is what AI told me: "After thoroughly reviewing NFL history, I cannot find any examples of a team facing a "win and get the #2 seed, lose and miss the playoffs" scenario in the final week of the regular season. The closest situations I could find are: 2008 Buccaneers: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs 2011 Cowboys: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs But in both cases the highest seed the teams could get with a win was #4, not #2. Based on my research, it appears no team has ever entered the final week where: A win would clinch the #2 seed in their conference A loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely The factors that would have to align to create that specific scenario seem to be too unlikely over the history of the league. So in summary, while teams have faced "win and in, lose and out" situations before, I could not find an instance where the specific seeding at stake was the #2 seed versus missing the playoffs completely. Please let me know if I'm missing any historical examples, but I believe your original assumption is correct - that scenario has likely never occurred in the NFL's regular season finale." 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jethro_tull Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs. 2 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBean Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 As a fan, hedge on DraftKings for them to miss. I believe it’s like +650. To make its -900 aka Vegas is very confident we are getting in. *not gambling or financial advice. I’m just an average Joe on this message board speaking my opinion and hoping I see 1 championship before I die.* 2 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cvanvol7 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, jethro_tull said: A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs. True, but the possibility has never happened. A potential 2 seed has never also had the possibility of missing entirely 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregg Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, jethro_tull said: A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs. We will know by game time. I really hope the Ravens backups can beat the Steelers, so we clinch a playoff spot by early SAT evening. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah its really Wild. It will make for incredible TV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jethro_tull Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Gregg said: We will know by game time. I really hope the Ravens backups can beat the Steelers, so we clinch a playoff spot by early SAT evening. The Ravens are at home (plus) but the Steelers have had their number in their last 6 games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Romes Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Have to think Vrabel’s seat is at least warm and he will be going all out for a 6th win. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cvanvol7 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Charles Romes said: Have to think Vrabel’s seat is at least warm and he will be going all out for a 6th win. Really wish this was a Saturday Game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 lets just hope 1 of Pit or Jax loses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Who is AL? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagoon Blues Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 31 minutes ago, Cvanvol7 said: Doing some AI questioning today because I feel like this fact continues to be mentioned but glossed over. Is this actually right? It looks like it is almost statistically impossible for a team to get into the situation the bills possibly face on Sunday. This terrifies me as it seems incredibly cursed for us to find the team facing this....... This is what AI told me: "After thoroughly reviewing NFL history, I cannot find any examples of a team facing a "win and get the #2 seed, lose and miss the playoffs" scenario in the final week of the regular season. The closest situations I could find are: 2008 Buccaneers: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs 2011 Cowboys: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs But in both cases the highest seed the teams could get with a win was #4, not #2. Based on my research, it appears no team has ever entered the final week where: A win would clinch the #2 seed in their conference A loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely The factors that would have to align to create that specific scenario seem to be too unlikely over the history of the league. So in summary, while teams have faced "win and in, lose and out" situations before, I could not find an instance where the specific seeding at stake was the #2 seed versus missing the playoffs completely. Please let me know if I'm missing any historical examples, but I believe your original assumption is correct - that scenario has likely never occurred in the NFL's regular season finale." just out of curiosity what do you use? gpt3.5? 4? gemini? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Romes Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I was originally angry about the possibility being out of the playoffs with a loss but now I am have warmed up to it. Bills likely need the 2-seed to make a realistic run at the Lombardi this year, and if they don’t get in they get to draft #18, which has been the sweet spot for drafting a #1 wr. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 There is no way it isn’t coming down to win and in. The way this year has gone, not much has been easy. Even in big wins it feels like there has been an injury of importance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerome007 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 31 minutes ago, McBean said: I’m just an average Joe on this message board speaking my opinion and hoping I see 1 championship before I die.* I use to giggle at this line. Now I too am feeling it! And well, I 'm greedy and in a hurry, I want them to win THIS year. Only 5 more Ws, baby! 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 No 12 man on the field and we're in the playoffs already. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayray808 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Titans over Jags is going to be the crucial game. I really wish they made that the Saturday game because: Titans/Steelers/Bills win: 2) Bills vs 7) Steelers 6) Miami vs 3) Chiefs 5) Browns vs 4) Texans Titans/Ravens/Bills win: 2) Bills vs 7) Jags 6) Miami vs 3) Chiefs 5) Browns vs 4) Texans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Marangi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, rayray808 said: Titans over Jags is going to be the crucial game. I really wish they made that the Saturday game because: Titans/Steelers/Bills win: 2) Bills vs 7) Steelers 6) Miami vs 3) Chiefs 5) Browns vs 4) Texans Titans/Ravens/Bills win: 2) Bills vs 7) Jags 6) Miami vs 3) Chiefs 5) Browns vs 4) Texans I would love to stomp the Jags at home 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InEnemyTerritory Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 IIRC in 2002, the Dolphins went into week 17 with a fighting chance at the #1 seed if they won (a few other games would have had to go their way), but they lost and missed the playoffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cvanvol7 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said: just out of curiosity what do you use? gpt3.5? 4? gemini? For this it was almost entirely Claude AI and Bard. Chat GPT seems to have been changed even more to not allow this type of statistical investigation for legal reasons 10 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said: Who is AL? Artificial Intelligence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 38 minutes ago, jethro_tull said: A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs. I think a loss and they will be in big trouble. Pittsburgh will beat Baltimore back ups. I’d think Baltimore would much rather see Pittsburgh get in over Buffalo. I don’t see how Jacksonville with Lawrence back loses to Tennessee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrBob806 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah, it's almost like conference wins actually matter lol. Look at the scenarios in the NFC South, it's almost as crazy but the records of those teams are crap. Additionally, Minnesota is somehow alive at 7-9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cvanvol7 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, InEnemyTerritory said: IIRC in 2002, the Dolphins went into week 17 with a fighting chance at the #1 seed if they won (a few other games would have had to go their way), but they lost and missed the playoffs I looked at this one, technically going into the weekend it was similar but they needed a win and three other teams to lose to get the 2 seed. If they would have won they would have been the 4 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanNH Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 53 minutes ago, jethro_tull said: A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs. Steelers have a good chance of beating a Ravens team that has nothing to play for and may sit some starters (anyone having any sort of injury.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said: I think a loss and they will be in big trouble. Pittsburgh will beat Baltimore back ups. I’d think Baltimore would much rather see Pittsburgh get in over Buffalo. I don’t see how Jacksonville with Lawrence back loses to Tennessee Yeah just like the Bills would beat the Steelers backups to get in the playoffs a few years ago. There are NO GIVEN games in the NFL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said: I think a loss and they will be in big trouble. Pittsburgh will beat Baltimore back ups. I’d think Baltimore would much rather see Pittsburgh get in over Buffalo. I don’t see how Jacksonville with Lawrence back loses to Tennessee We're not getting Tennessee or Baltimore winning. Just pack that away. This Sunday night is our first playoff game. We have to treat this game as do or die. And thank incompetent coaching for 12 men on the field. If we don't find our passing game in Miami, this season was never meant to be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, jethro_tull said: A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs. If the Steelers win against the Ravens backups, yes it very much does guarantee the Bills miss the playoffs if they don't win in Miami. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starr Almighty Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 56 minutes ago, Cvanvol7 said: True, but the possibility has never happened. A potential 2 seed has never also had the possibility of missing entirely 2 seed or 4 seed just equals division winner. It just happens that the 3 and 4 seed have less wins in this situation. So that 4 seed example is pretty much the same thing, win the division or get lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 more Bard AI. Since 1975: 21.3% of #2 seeds reach the Super Bowl Since 2000: 13.3% with 7 out of 53 teams @ #2 reaching the playoffs. since '75 42.7% advance to the conference championships since '00: 37.7% advance to the conf championship The NFC has done better at advancing the #2 seed. The #1 seed since 2000 has made it to the Super Bowl 42% of the time. 73.1% of the time they advance to the conf championship. The #2 seeds to win the super bowl: AFC: Pittsburgh Steelers (1979, 1980) Denver Broncos (1988, 1997) New England Patriots (2004, 2016) NFC: New York Giants (1987, 2008) Super Bowl appearances (losers): AFC: San Diego Chargers (1994) Indianapolis Colts (2004) New York Jets (1998) NFC: San Francisco 49ers (1990) Minnesota Vikings (1999) Seattle Seahawks (2006) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starr Almighty Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, FilthyBeast said: If the Steelers win against the Ravens backups, yes it very much does guarantee the Bills miss the playoffs if they don't win in Miami. Not true if the Jags lost to the Titans 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 56 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said: Yeah its really Wild. It will make for incredible TV Almost seems like, in hindsight, the NFL planned this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said: Who is AL? 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cvanvol7 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, Starr Almighty said: 2 seed or 4 seed just equals division winner. It just happens that the 3 and 4 seed have less wins in this situation. So that 4 seed example is pretty much the same thing, win the division or get lost Being the 4 seed or being out happens almost every year. This does not. To be the worst division winner or be out of the playoffs makes a ton of sense, to be the second best team or out is wildly improbable but yet of course the bills find themselves there. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Starr Almighty said: Not true if the Jags lost to the Titans Sorry forgot about that one, but I think the Jags winning that game is a bigger lock than the Steelers against the Ravens backups but who really knows. Either way just hope it doesn't come down to the Bills having to win the game, because even if they lose they'll at least have a chance as a wildcard, albeit in a situation where the McD/Allen combo has never won a game (on the road). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 37 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: There is no way it isn’t coming down to win and in. The way this year has gone, not much has been easy. Even in big wins it feels like there has been an injury of importance. We got a ton of help a few weeks in a row to have a shot at the division and a decent shot to make it with 10 wins so it’s been kind of a mixed bag. Not too long ago the Steelers and jags were 6-3…jags went on to get it to 8-3. It’s honestly pretty wild both those teams are on the brink now Edited January 2 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Sorry to upset some folks, but this is as Billsy as it gets. 2 seed or out of the playoffs. All because we lost to some bad bad teams 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, NewEra said: Sorry to upset some folks, but this is as Billsy as it gets. 2 seed or out of the playoffs. All because we lost to some bad bad teams A December collapse is as dolphinsy as it gets though and both teams seem to always lose in primetime lately…something’s gotta give in this one 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said: If the Steelers win against the Ravens backups, yes it very much does guarantee the Bills miss the playoffs if they don't win in Miami. 9 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said: Not true if the Jags lost to the Titans And, iirc, the Texans and colts tie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagoon Blues Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Cvanvol7 said: For this it was almost entirely Claude AI and Bard. Chat GPT seems to have been changed even more to not allow this type of statistical investigation for legal reasons Artificial Intelligence 4 is even more so than 3.5 it seems. Hopeful that as Bard shifts to gemini(ultra)it will be more open/free reign but doubt it for the time being. But that is the issue w/ LLMs for now. Edited January 2 by Lagoon Blues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, Charles Romes said: I was originally angry about the possibility being out of the playoffs with a loss but now I am have warmed up to it. Bills likely need the 2-seed to make a realistic run at the Lombardi this year, and if they don’t get in they get to draft #18, which has been the sweet spot for drafting a #1 wr. We have to quit wasting Allen's years. Get in and get hot and who knows. Maybe getting in as the 6th seed will be motivation. Not making the playoffs in a season where the AFC is as weak as it's been on McD's watch is inexcusable. KC ain't going anywhere, Jax is floundering and may not even win their division. Miami shouldn't be what stops us, especially with Waddle out, Chubb out, Hill injured, Mostert injured or out, etc. The only team playing with any consistency this season in the AFC has been Baltimore and we haven't had to play them. Our offense has seen no significant injuries and had the best OL play we've had on his watch. We added Kincaid and Shakir took a step in his second season. At some point we need to cut bait on the mismanagement of our offense. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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