Kickers are 26/27 in FGs against us this year

[davefan66]

I asked this during the game. It seems like a given every time the opponent attempts a FG.

 

Be interesting to see yards of each kick.

[Carmel Corn]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s really upsetting to me that we have Von on the field in these situations. Get someone out there that can make a difference.

Yes...he needs to go on IR or something for the rest of this season.  Let him get up to speed next preseason.  It's like playing with 10 men on the field whenever he's there.

[JMM]

8 hours ago, BillsGuyOutWest said:

Comes full circle in Feb when the opposing kicker misses the game winner against us wide left. 
 

For real good observation, it’s been driving me nuts all year. 

🙏🤞

[mannc]

13 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I don't think this is true.  Certainly in 2019 there was a couple of kickers who were replaced right after they played the BiIls because they missed a big kick or missed multiple kicks.

 

 

I don’t think so.  I remember Justin Tucker missed one or two in the Ravens playoff game in Buffalo, but there was a ton of wind. That’s the only miss I can remember vs the Bills, but maybe NE also missed one in The Wind Game.

[BBFL]

Timeout. 
 

26/28. 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

26 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Timeout. 
 

26/28. 

For real?  Which one besides the TB miss?

[ToGoGo]

10 hours ago, Special K said:

Dicker the Kicker is pretty impressive....you know if he got another chance there was no way he was going to miss it

Kicking in perfect weather. 

[BBFL]

7 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

For real?  Which one besides the TB miss?

 

Timeout….

 

26/28….

 

Whoosh!

[ToGoGo]

54 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is a really weird narrative.

 

By your own standard you say 24/28 would be league average. Fine. Sounds about right. That's 85%. 

 

Bass on the year is 22/27. That's 81%. Basically 2 kicks under par, so to speak. So 4% in your eyes takes you from "league average" to "truly bad"? 

 

Now, I'll gladly admit Bass has had a down year for his normal standard. But the sudden talk this year of Bass being horrible are greatly over exaggerated.

 

On top of that he's 43/44 on extra points. 

Nice rebuttal. I was thinking the same thing. 
 

The logic he used to dismiss the OP he didn’t use to counter it. What he’s really saying is “negative situations are ALWAYS our fault. No excuses allowed under any conditions whatsoever.” 
 

That’s what happens when people think with negative emotions instead of their brain or gut. 
 

“No excuses” is an interesting argument. You notice it is a certain type of hard ass, not always bright type of fan that parrots this. 
 

Basically there is truth to it. We all have independent agency to change our outcome in life. That sort of American pull yourself up by your bootstraps mentality. But it’s never black and white. 
 

Even the greatest men and women who ever lived had ups and downs. Life moves in cycles. Sometimes the universe punches you in the mouth when you least expect it. The sign of a great person at that moment is showing resiliency and getting back up and punching back. For these fans, the fact you got knocked down already means you lost. 
 

Basically these fans lack the wisdom of life, despite whatever age they are. They don’t understand cycles, resilience, and the way of the world. I’d argue they have little victory in their own lives to understand what it looks like to win at this type of level.
 

There is a time and place for “no excuses” and “no moral victories”. But there also is a place for them when you fight your hardest against the flow of the river and come up short. Josh Allen’s career has been the epitome of this. He literally pushes against the walls of the matrix and causes glitches which are then seen in the strange narratives around him. 
 

These concepts are simply over the poster’s head. That is why he had a blind spot to his fallacy that you called out and an emotional bias towards the negative. 

[Billy Claude]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

I don’t think so.  I remember Justin Tucker missed one or two in the Ravens playoff game in Buffalo, but there was a ton of wind. That’s the only miss I can remember vs the Bills, but maybe NE also missed one in The Wind Game.

 

The original question I was responding to was has kickers kicked unusually well against the Bills over many seasons? This interested me enough to go look at the data.  Considering regular season only, in 2022, FG kickers against the Bills were 21/28  (75%) while Bass was 27/31 (87% - his best year).  No one noticed because the Bills were blowing people out.

 

2019 was the year I remembered there were a lot of crucial miss kicks by opponents.

 

In game 1,the Jets kicker (Vedvik) was 0/1 on FG and missed an extra point in a game the Bills won 17-16.   He was replaced after two games.

 

In game 5, the Titans kicker (Santos) was 0/4 and was immediately replaced after the game. Bills won 14-7.  This was also the last game Mariota started before being replaced by Tannehill. 

 

Since the Bills barely made the playoffs that year each game was important.

 

Overall in 2019, Hauschka was 22/28 (78%) while opponent kickers were a horrible 14/24 (58%).  A lot of lucky things went the Bills way that year.  I think people want to believe the refs/ league/ universe has something against the Bills but tend to never remember when luck goes their way. 

 

Given that, there is no doubt that the Bills have been very unlucky this season.

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Just in Atlanta]

I just came here to say Dicker.

 

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

 

19 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Nice rebuttal. I was thinking the same thing. 
 

The logic he used to dismiss the OP he didn’t use to counter it. What he’s really saying is “negative situations are ALWAYS our fault. No excuses allowed under any conditions whatsoever.” 
 

That’s what happens when people think with negative emotions instead of their brain or gut. 
 

“No excuses” is an interesting argument. You notice it is a certain type of hard ass, not always bright type of fan that parrots this. 
 

Basically there is truth to it. We all have independent agency to change our outcome in life. That sort of American pull yourself up by your bootstraps mentality. But it’s never black and white. 
 

Even the greatest men and women who ever lived had ups and downs. Life moves in cycles. Sometimes the universe punches you in the mouth when you least expect it. The sign of a great person at that moment is showing resiliency and getting back up and punching back. For these fans, the fact you got knocked down already means you lost. 
 

Basically these fans lack the wisdom of life, despite whatever age they are. They don’t understand cycles, resilience, and the way of the world. I’d argue they have little victory in their own lives to understand what it looks like to win at this type of level.
 

There is a time and place for “no excuses” and “no moral victories”. But there also is a place for them when you fight your hardest against the flow of the river and come up short. Josh Allen’s career has been the epitome of this. He literally pushes against the walls of the matrix and causes glitches which are then seen in the strange narratives around him. 
 

These concepts are simply over the poster’s head. That is why he had a blind spot to his fallacy that you called out and an emotional bias towards the negative. 

 

I’m a semi-professional poker player.  People with the outlook you’re describing, where bad luck is never an excuse for negative outcomes nor can good luck mitigate a positive outcome, hemorrhage money at a rate only second to the degenerate problem gamblers.

[Kirby Jackson]

10 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Appreciate you posting this. I thought about it last night. That’s the sign of a bad luck year. The only other miss had 12 guys on the field.

[nedboy7]

24 minutes ago, Just in Atlanta said:

I just came here to say Dicker.

 

 

 

Your post has more intelligence than half the whiny fans today. 

[JohnNord]

11 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Yeah, I’ve known this stat for a while and it is completely maddening.  It’s not just the fact that they’ve been near 100%.  So many of these attempts were longer, lower percentage kicks. Also not like teams are stalling near the goal line and making chip shots.   Also wasn’t the one miss a block or deflected ball at the line?!?!?

 

The full list is below and surprisingly there are two teams with a lower percentage.   Not surprisingly, Cleveland is #1 and a team like Jacksonville which has been inconsistent is ranked fairly high as well.  
 

But if you look at the list, most of the top teams are toward the middle or higher.  You have to think at some point things change a bit.  
 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-field-goal-conversion-pct

 

I knew when Dicker lined up for the 53 yard FG it would go right through the uprights.  

11 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

It does feel like luck has not been on our side so far this year.  

Injury luck ✅

Fumble luck ✅

INT bounces ✅

FG bounces ✅

 

Basically unlucky across the board

Edited December 24, 2023 by JohnNord

[chongli]

Opposing kickers should only be 25 of 27 against us, but someone on the team can't count.

 

Also, others kickers know they better make it against us as they will need every point they can get to keep up with our offense. So they have added motivation.

Edited December 24, 2023 by chongli

[Low Positive]

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

It was an entirely different situation than 13 seconds because the Chargers had no TOs. 

[AZSanta]

14 hours ago, pigpen65 said:

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

How can our coaches watch game film every week and allow this dude any snaps at all during games. All that money he is making for that effort is downright criminal

[hondo in seattle]

Some people think football has nothing to do with luck.  As Einstein said, God doesn't play dice with the universe.  There is no luck.  It's all cause and effect.  

 

When the game is lost because a pass is tipped into a defender's hands for a pick...  Well, the DE should have been better blocked and the QB shouldn't have thrown the pass.  The ball is just following the laws of physics.

 

When a key player is hurt...  Well, Beane should have signed more durable players.  The strength and conditioning staff should have done a better job preparing the players for the rigors of the season.    

 

But when opposing kickers go 26 for 27, what do you say?  That's not bad special teams play.  That's just bad luck.  

 

Luck has always been part of football and always will be.  

 

[GoBills808]

11 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is a really weird narrative.

 

By your own standard you say 24/28 would be league average. Fine. Sounds about right. That's 85%. 

 

Bass on the year is 22/27. That's 81%. Basically 2 kicks under par, so to speak. So 4% in your eyes takes you from "league average" to "truly bad"? 

 

Now, I'll gladly admit Bass has had a down year for his normal standard. But the sudden talk this year of Bass being horrible are greatly over exaggerated.

 

On top of that he's 43/44 on extra points. 

He's been really bad

 

He is 23rd or 24th in FG%

[BuffaloBillyG]

36 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He's been really bad

 

He is 23rd or 24th in FG%

No. He's kicking at a slightly below league average. That is not "really bad". That's 2 kicks off being above average. Oddly, he's had 1 blocked kick and missed 2 in the driving rain in Philly. To just blindly say "Welp, he's 23rd" without context is irresponsible.

 

As I said, it's definitely been a down year as per his standard. But if you think he's been "really bad" I don't know what to tell ya other than your personal standpoint on kickers may be too high 

[SoonerBillsFan]

21 hours ago, pigpen65 said:

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

I'm sick of Miller.  IMHO he is just collecting a paycheck now.

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

No. He's kicking at a slightly below league average. That is not "really bad". That's 2 kicks off being above average. Oddly, he's had 1 blocked kick and missed 2 in the driving rain in Philly. To just blindly say "Welp, he's 23rd" without context is irresponsible.

 

As I said, it's definitely been a down year as per his standard. But if you think he's been "really bad" I don't know what to tell ya other than your personal standpoint on kickers may be too high 

That's fair

 

But for context's sake I think it's also fair to note he's one of the highest paid kickers in a league notorious for close games without ever having been top 10 in FG%

[BuffaloBillyG]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That's fair

 

But for context's sake I think it's also fair to note he's one of the highest paid kickers in a league notorious for close games without ever having been top 10 in FG%

I do acknowledge that.

 

However keeping with context, looking over many of the top percentage guys, most kick in a dome or warmer weather. Having half your home games in Orchard Park in the elements we see does play into percentage as well.

 

He also doesn't get a chance for many "game winners" due to the way the Bills win games ordinarily, however he is 9 of 9 in his career on such kicks. Can't ask for more IMO.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I do acknowledge that.

 

However keeping with context, looking over many of the top percentage guys, most kick in a dome or warmer weather. Having half your home games in Orchard Park in the elements we see does play into percentage as well.

 

He also doesn't get a chance for many "game winners" due to the way the Bills win games ordinarily, however he is 9 of 9 in his career on such kicks. Can't ask for more IMO.

Playing half your games in Buffalo will definitely have an affect 👍

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

No. He's kicking at a slightly below league average. That is not "really bad". That's 2 kicks off being above average. Oddly, he's had 1 blocked kick and missed 2 in the driving rain in Philly. To just blindly say "Welp, he's 23rd" without context is irresponsible.

 

As I said, it's definitely been a down year as per his standard. But if you think he's been "really bad" I don't know what to tell ya other than your personal standpoint on kickers may be too high 

He’s missed a makeable fg in every close lose we’ve had which makes it worse than his overall make percentage would indicate imo 

[HappyDays]

This unlucky streak will be put to the test next week. The Pats kicker has missed a 47 yarder by about a mile, and just missed an XP too. If he drills two 50 yarders right down the middle against us, we can pack it in for the season and accept the universe doesn't want us to win anything meaningful this year.

[thenorthremembers]

12 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is a really weird narrative.

 

By your own standard you say 24/28 would be league average. Fine. Sounds about right. That's 85%. 

 

Bass on the year is 22/27. That's 81%. Basically 2 kicks under par, so to speak. So 4% in your eyes takes you from "league average" to "truly bad"? 

 

Now, I'll gladly admit Bass has had a down year for his normal standard. But the sudden talk this year of Bass being horrible are greatly over exaggerated.

 

On top of that he's 43/44 on extra points. 

It's not a weird narrative.  Bass is 24th in the league in field goal percentage.  Sure he may be 2 kicks under par, but given the limited opportunities, 2 kicks ends up being a big deal when it comes to percentage.   

 

When compared to his peers he is bad right now, below average, inferior, poor, they all mean the same thing.   There are only 4 kickers in the entire league who have kicked enough to have their stats counted that are worse than Bass right now.  Sorry, he's been bad.

[BuffaloBillyG]

54 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Playing half your games in Buffalo will definitely have an affect 👍

Thanks for the respectful back and forth on this topic tonight, mate. Don't always get that here lol. Merry Christmas to you and yours🍻

[JimBob2232]

23 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

I remember the Denver kicker missing one wide right near the end of the game…

[BuffaloRebound]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

No. He's kicking at a slightly below league average. That is not "really bad". That's 2 kicks off being above average. Oddly, he's had 1 blocked kick and missed 2 in the driving rain in Philly. To just blindly say "Welp, he's 23rd" without context is irresponsible.

 

As I said, it's definitely been a down year as per his standard. But if you think he's been "really bad" I don't know what to tell ya other than your personal standpoint on kickers may be too high 

Wouldn’t say he’s been really bad, but when  our opponent’s kickers have basically been automatic it feels like we are at a kicking disadvantage every game.   5 misses vs 1 miss is 12 points.  Kicking stats aren’t in a vacuum.  If the guy on the other side is out-kicking you, you’re a negative to your team.  

[MJS]

Same thing with dropped INT's. If the ball is anywhere close to a defender, they make an amazing catch on it.

 

I watch other games and see dropped INT's all the time. In fact, I watch OUR team drop INT's all the time.

 

This has not been a lucky year at all.

[Big Turk]

That's an absurd FG percentage. Over 96%?? Most kickers don't even have XP percentages that high!

9 minutes ago, MJS said:

Same thing with dropped INT's. If the ball is anywhere close to a defender, they make an amazing catch on it.

 

I watch other games and see dropped INT's all the time. In fact, I watch OUR team drop INT's all the time.

 

This has not been a lucky year at all.

 

Yeah it's really maddening when Allen has one of the lowest turnover worthy play percentage in the NFL but has so many INTs...defenders are catching everything, then you watch other games and the same dude that made an amazing over the shoulder INT against Allen last week drops an easy one that looks like a punt.

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

No. He's kicking at a slightly below league average. That is not "really bad". That's 2 kicks off being above average. Oddly, he's had 1 blocked kick and missed 2 in the driving rain in Philly. To just blindly say "Welp, he's 23rd" without context is irresponsible.

 

As I said, it's definitely been a down year as per his standard. But if you think he's been "really bad" I don't know what to tell ya other than your personal standpoint on kickers may be too high 

 

Yeah considering one miss can drop a kicker like 4% since they only have a finite number of kicks during a year and there is no difficulty rating involved it's not really meaningful overall...

 

A missed 60 yard FG is not the same as a missed 35 yard FG but for all intents and purposes they are treated the same.

[BillsFooteball]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This unlucky streak will be put to the test next week. The Pats kicker has missed a 47 yarder by about a mile, and just missed an XP too. If he drills two 50 yarders right down the middle against us, we can pack it in for the season and accept the universe doesn't want us to win anything meaningful this year.

Couldn’t believe he nailed the game winner right down middle from 56 yards. Loved it because helped the bills out but didn’t think he had a shot 

[Billy Claude]

Here is the data from the last 5 years to put it into context.  Opponent first and then the Bills' kicker.

 

2019   14/24 (58%!)     22/28 (79% Hauschka)

2020   23/25 (92%)    28/34 (82% Bass)

2021   23/25 (92%)    28/32 (88%)

2022   21/28 (75%)    27/31 (87%)

2023   26/27 (96%)   22/27  (79%)

 

5 years

           opp = 107/129 (83%)    Bills = 127/152 (84%)

 

4 years (Bass only)

           opp = 93/105 (89%)       Bass = 105/124 (85%)

 

3 years (Bass only -- not including this year)

          opp = 67/78  (86%)         Bass = 83/97 (86%)

 

 

League average in 2022 was 86% so Bills have been unlucky. The evidence also indicates that Bass is a good kicker who is having a bad year.  He is good enough for what the Bills need but not elite even accounting for weather.

 

        

 

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Billy Claude

[frostbitmic]

 

Whatever it is they're doing on FG's doesn't seem to be working.

[Big Turk]

15 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Playing half your games in Buffalo will definitely have an affect 👍

 

The weather channel created a "worst weather" city index for NFL teams and the Bills won by a very wide margin over 2nd place Green Bay.

[Billy Claude]

16 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Playing half your games in Buffalo will definitely have an affect 👍

 

However, opposition kickers have hit a higher percentage than Bass over a four year period.

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Billy Claude said:

 

However, opposition kickers have hit a higher percentage than Bass over a four year period.

 

Yes because bass isn't a very good kicker

[Billy Claude]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes because bass isn't a very good kicker

 

I don't agree with that.   He is a good kicker (at least above average).  He's just not anywhere close to the elite kicker that some people seem to believe he is.   

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Billy Claude