strive_for_five_guy Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 The Bills better be looking at next week as our Super Bowl. 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 per NYT: 80% chance if beat chiefs and other 3 games but lose to cowboys. 50 % if they lose 2 more games. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 hours ago, MJS said: The Bills don't usually do that, so what are you talking about? Yea seriously…if we run the table or win 4 games against most or all of Dallas/kc/miami, why would we assume one on done? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 McDermott will go into KC and clap his team to victory. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakAttack Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Wonder if there is any shot Miami resting starters by week 18. 1 minute ago, Dr.Sack said: McDermott will go into KC and clap his team to victory. It wasn’t easy, and I had to keep reminding myself throughout the game, but I was actually rooting for KC today merely because I did not want to see them coming off a loss. And oddly enough, they lose the game and it felt oh so Bills-esque… but coming from the Chiefs!?!? So now I am starting to believe that it isn’t the Bills, these years of misfortune, maybe it’s just me! After all, the first NFL game I have ever watched was …….. Wide Right Sorry guys, I’d stop if I could. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, BobBelcher said: Wonder if there is any shot Miami resting starters by week 18. It wasn’t easy, and I had to keep reminding myself throughout the game, but I was actually rooting for KC today merely because I did not want to see them coming off a loss. And oddly enough, they lose the game and it felt oh so Bills-esque… but coming from the Chiefs!?!? So now I am starting to believe that it isn’t the Bills, these years of misfortune, maybe it’s just me! After all, the first NFL game I have ever watched was …….. Wide Right Sorry guys, I’d stop if I could. KC’s defense looks like it is starting to take damage. I won’t get my hopes up. I fully expect a beat down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: per NYT: 80% chance if beat chiefs and other 3 games but lose to cowboys. 50 % if they lose 2 more games. This is wrong. Losing 2 basically eliminates them (3% chance). As of this week if they can go 4-1 they have a ~59% chance of getting in. The Jacksonville/Cincy Monday Night game has almost no effect. Edited December 4, 2023 by QCity 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 One game at a time beat KC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, QCity said: This is wrong. Losing 2 basically eliminates them (3% chance). As of this week if they can go 4-1 they have a ~59% chance of getting in. The Jacksonville/Cincy Monday Night game has almost no effect. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-dal-15=win&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss Something else to say to me mr stats? Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss You didn’t fill in the loss against the cowboys. When you do the chance goes down to 56%. If we lose twice our chance is less then 8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said: You didn’t fill in the loss against the cowboys. When you do the chance goes down to 56%. If we lose twice our chance is less then 8%. read what i typed the first post re the new probs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just now, Joe Ferguson forever said: read what i typed the first post re the new probs.... I did. You’re wrong. You’re not filling the form out right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said: I did. You’re wrong. You’re not filling the form out right. why the "X". i didn't stipulate which 2 games they lose for 50%. so sue me. Lawyers who wants a gig? AND? Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 hours ago, FireChans said: We are like 1.5 games back for a WC spot today. Our season is very much alive. Gotta come out of the bye week on a mission Yep... and KC lost today, too. I know some fans were weirdly rooting for KC, but this makes everything even more alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 As far as betting odds go, bills chances didn't budge even after a favorable day. DK had them at +500 to make it before today and they are +500 now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Process said: As far as betting odds go, bills chances didn't budge even after a favorable day. DK had them at +500 to make it before today and they are +500 now. good to know. I'll go to the site soon to make a bet. 9 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: why the "X". i didn't stipulate which 2 games they lose for 50%. so sue me. Lawyers who wants a gig? AND? now a lol. i worded it quite carefully. Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 18 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: why the "X". i didn't stipulate which 2 games they lose for 50%. so sue me. Lawyers who wants a gig? By not “stipulating” two games as losses you’re just leaving them undecided. So your percentages are wrong. It’s not 50% if they lose two games, it is much, much lower: 3% to 7% depending on which two they lose. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 50 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-dal-15=win&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss Something else to say to me mr stats? Yeah, PEBKEC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, BobBelcher said: Wonder if there is any shot Miami resting starters by week 18. Do you really see McDaniel conceding the AFC East by resting starters? That would surprise me, but they aren't winning that game even with Marino in his prime, the 'Killer Bs' and Larry ***** Csonka, so who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 46 minutes ago, Punch said: Do you really see McDaniel conceding the AFC East by resting starters? That would surprise me, but they aren't winning that game even with Marino in his prime, the 'Killer Bs' and Larry ***** Csonka, so who knows. A lot of things could be in play in that last game. For example, maybe Miami avoids playing us in the wildcard game—and instead gets Pittsburgh or the Colts—if they lose to us…in which case, maybe they sit some guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, mannc said: A lot of things could be in play in that last game. For example, maybe Miami avoids playing us in the wildcard game—and instead gets Pittsburgh or the Colts—if they lose to us…in which case, maybe they sit some guys. They would also love to knock us out of the playoffs! Even if we win four straight heading into Miami, it’s a huge game for us. Win and our playoff chances are 99% Lose and they are 46% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&buf-dal-15=win&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Drew21PA said: One game at a time beat KC forreal been saying all week we should whoop em. They're limited on O and lost 2 starters on D for next week 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubba Gump Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Just gotta say, I hate this ***** simulator horseshit. It's like all the analytical bs in the NHL and MLB. It doesn't mean a hill of beans. Go back to the days when coaching, actually meant coaching. Not this looking at a computer and setting your gameplan that way. I hate technology. Mostly because I am immune to it. But why even have or pay coaches anymore, when the computer can tell you what to do? Sports are pretty gross now. 3 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said: Just gotta say, I hate this ***** simulator horseshit. It's like all the analytical bs in the NHL and MLB. It doesn't mean a hill of beans. Go back to the days when coaching, actually meant coaching. Not this looking at a computer and setting your gameplan that way. I hate technology. Mostly because I am immune to it. But why even have or pay coaches anymore, when the computer can tell you what to do? Sports are pretty gross now. Exactly what control you have over the coaching? Do you think that the coaches sit around playing playoff simulator? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubba Gump Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: Exactly what control you have over the coaching? Do you think that the coaches sit around playing playoff simulator? I have no clue what you are trying to say? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, QCity said: Yeah, PEBKEC. You were wrong and you're still wrong and unrepentant . go to the kids table and wash out your mouthwash w soap. oh and lifetime celibacy.... 3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: They would also love to knock us out of the playoffs! Even if we win four straight heading into Miami, it’s a huge game for us. Win and our playoff chances are 99% Lose and they are 46% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&buf-dal-15=win&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win maybe @QCity can suggest some alternative facts.... Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: Win and our playoff chances are 99% win out , to be precise Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 10 hours ago, Drew21PA said: What? They do not they can “afford” to lose one more that is it though. If they can’t run the table, they aren’t going to go very far in the playoffs anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bubba Gump said: Just gotta say, I hate this ***** simulator horseshit. It's like all the analytical bs in the NHL and MLB. It doesn't mean a hill of beans. Go back to the days when coaching, actually meant coaching. Not this looking at a computer and setting your gameplan that way. I hate technology. Mostly because I am immune to it. But why even have or pay coaches anymore, when the computer can tell you what to do? Sports are pretty gross now. Coaching still needs to be done during the week. Leading the team, having the them prepared for war in their next game, despite the ups and downs of the season. That's most important part imo, most games are won during the week and has nothing to do with a computer Edited December 4, 2023 by JerseyBills 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 (edited) THE SIMULATOR IS BROKEN no oil.... . Edited December 5, 2023 by Bogie_Klinkhammer 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bogie_Klinkhammer said: THE SIMULATOR IS BROKEN No oil.... stimulator, no batteries 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 My associate is performing playoff calculations and permutations: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 3 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Do you think that the coaches sit around playing playoff simulator? Assistant Coach running projections: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DapperCam Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Win keeps hope alive. Lose and its essentially season over because we would need a lot of help. Just the amount of games the teams ahead us have vs each other guarantees some of these teams rack up wins. Unless they lose to non-contenders or 1-2 of them win out, too many teams get to 10-11 wins and we lose most tiebreakers. Thats why our playoff odds are 15-25% based on the logic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 as of today, 73-79% odds of making with 4/5 run. better odds include a win against KC.. 73% w loss to KC but win all other games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 45 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: as of today, 73-79% odds of making with 4/5 run. better odds include a win against KC.. 73% w loss to KC but win all other games. Once again, wrong figures. You need to select the Chiefs to win that game, not leave it blank. The correct number is 52%, not 73%. I guess you are trolling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said: Once again, wrong figures. You need to select the Chiefs to win that game, not leave it blank. The correct number is 52%, not 73%. I guess you are trolling. no. U R correct, left that game undecided. will retry. yes, 53%. but hardly "season is over" w loss to KC....how many years would ee be smiling with these odds in the 70's or 80's, Even a good portion of the 2000's? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Damn, we have Josh Allen and the one season when the QBs to beat for a Wild Card are: Stroud, Minshew, Flacco, Trubisky, Browning and maybe Beathard. No Excuses. Have to do it the hard way since some easy games were blown. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFBillsfan Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Hard to process after Cinncy’s win last night the Bills are currently in 11th place in the AFC. To state this week is a must win is an understatement. The reality is they are going to have to win out which based upon the season thus far, it’s more unlikely than likely. 11th freaking place for a team that should be dominating but yet our HC is coaching like he’s in his first year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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