10 interesting stats I have been playing with this week | Allen, Diggs, Cook, Defense

[Einstein]

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Einstein

[HoofHearted]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

These from PFF?

[Nephilim17]

Thanks for that.

 

This seems to blow up the narrative that the ball is forced to Diggs too much.

Interesting about Kincaid vs. Knox in terms of catch rate. That does support the narrative that Knox is not a consistent catcher. Just a hunch, but by the end of 2024 Kincaid will have displaced Knox as the number one TE.

[Einstein]

Just now, HoofHearted said:

These from PFF?

No this is the NFL Data Suite by Scott Barrett (creator of xFP metric that ESPN uses) and Brett Whitefield (former PFF).

It's in Beta right now.

5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

This seems to blow up the narrative that the ball is forced to Diggs too much.

I think what it really does is show that the entire NFL designs plays to go to the first target.
 

We are not alone.

[Virgil]

How do they know what the first read is?

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

No this is the NFL Data Suite by Scott Barrett (creator of xFP metric that ESPN uses) and Brett Whitefield (former PFF).

It's in Beta right now.

Where does their data come from?

[Einstein]

Just now, Virgil said:

How do they know what the first read is?

I'm assuming the first WR the QB focuses on after the snap. That's a fairly clear indicator.

However, this is one of several questions I have asked them for clarification on.

[Big Turk]

 

 

Taron Johnson has been balling in coverage...among the best in the NFL this year. Same with Bernard, ranked 5th in the NFL. And look who has been 2nd worst in the NFL...our old friend...

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Big Turk

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Taron Johnson has been balling in coverage...among the best in the NFL this year. Same with Bernard, ranked 5th in the NFL.

 

 

Yes.

He has been very good against the run as well.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

 

 

Don't think anyone should be surprised at Cook's higher YPC on gap runs...Bills have ONLY been consistently successful running with gap scheme for years. At least this year they didn't try to force zone down the OLine's throat and have been mostly gap, although perhaps some of the struggles the last few weeks running have been from attempting more zone runs?

[eball]

29 minutes ago, Einstein said:

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.

 

He had one bad game (half, really) -- and it was one of the worst of his career.  Since then he's been brilliant.  I just wish he'd run a bit more when it's wide open in front of him.

 

[jahnyc]

For 1), does this mean that the first read is not open (at least that is what Allen thinks)?  

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

For 1), does this mean that the first read is not open (at least that is what Allen thinks)?  

It means the QB throws to his read that % of dropbacks.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

It means the QB throws to his read that % of dropbacks.

 

And that is why the Bills plan of disrupting Tua's first read and the timing of the offense against Miami was so successful.

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

And that is why the Bills plan of disrupting Tua's first read and the timing of the offense against Miami was so successful.

 

Exactly!

[ngbills]

30 minutes ago, eball said:

 

He had one bad game (half, really) -- and it was one of the worst of his career.  Since then he's been brilliant.  I just wish he'd run a bit more when it's wide open in front of him.

 

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

What would be interesting is those first few stats for Burrow compared to Allen. 

 

Because seemingly their offense has been Burrow to Chase, and last week all the calf excuse was gone and they still only got to 17, with 3 in the second half.

 

So Allen is 30th in first read percentage, where is Burrow?

 

Also the stats on Burrow checking down, because again he tried to go deep last week and it was an underthrown interception.

 

Against Arizona it was all good. 

[Einstein's Dog]

21 minutes ago, ngbills said:

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

Yes, we want Josh to learn to take the short pass, to take less of a beating.  We have better personnel this year with Cook/Kincaid.  It looks like a priority that Dorsey has emphasized (and doesn't seem to be getting much credit for).   There is a big benefit to the future of the team and Josh to learn this skill.  

 

In the playoffs you take off the restrictions.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

39 minutes ago, ngbills said:

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

I say no.

 

I want him to play like he always has. This version is...vanilla and beige.

 

LOTS of people here disagree with me about that because they're afraid. Give me the mad bomber melon farmer

 

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So Allen is 30th in first read percentage, where is Burrow?

Burrow is 12th in 1st read %.
 

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Also the stats on Burrow checking down

And 12th in checkdown % too.

[Charles Romes]

How can you tell if it’s the first read. Doesn’t the QB normally look off the first read. That would make the second read the first read. 

[Drew21PA]

That is interesting about Diggs

 

i made an observation earlier this week that when a play breaks down it appears our guys - other than Diggs - struggle to come back and help Josh by finding an open spot in the field

 

we all watch KC and wonder how Kelce gets open

 

watch a session of those two and it’s like backyard basketball and finding the open spot on the floor

 

rhat first read stat on Diggs makes complete sense to me 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

great thread, btw

 

actual insight!

 

[ngbills]

34 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yes, we want Josh to learn to take the short pass, to take less of a beating.  We have better personnel this year with Cook/Kincaid.  It looks like a priority that Dorsey has emphasized (and doesn't seem to be getting much credit for).   There is a big benefit to the future of the team and Josh to learn this skill.  

 

In the playoffs you take off the restrictions.  

 

21 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I say no.

 

I want him to play like he always has. This version is...vanilla and beige.

 

LOTS of people here disagree with me about that because they're afraid. Give me the mad bomber melon farmer

 

There you have it. Two opposite opinions. When we had guys like Tyrod and Trent Edwards people wanted a risk taker. I think many on this board just want to support whatever is happening. Allen the game manager that is great bc he is learning and smarter. Josh the risk taker that is great bc that is who he is and will win more than he will lose playing that way. 

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

But, but, but, according to 25% if tbd posters, everything is horrible on the Bills.  I’m so confused by these objective data points.  That means we’re actually… good?

 

Sorry, I can’t help, but being a wisears to some silly posts.  Even some of these data points surprised me, and some confirmed.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

 

When we had guys like Tyrod and Trent Edwards people wanted a risk taker.

 

If I had a nickle for every time I yelled at the television for Tyrod to throw the damned ball, I'd have retired a long time ago

 

[ngbills]

Is first read strictly throwing to the first read or how fast it is going to the first read? Part of Allen's low number could be he comes off his first read so fast and goes straight to the check down. He is doing that a ton this year. Also, the Bills dont seem to run a lot of quick first read plays. 

[Einstein]

47 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

when a play breaks down it appears our guys - other than Diggs - struggle to come back and help Josh by finding an open spot in the field

I think this may impact many of ours (including myself) view on Allen always targeting Diggs.

When plays break down, Allen is able to keep them alive and he often hits Diggs. I doubt this is counted as a "first read", even though Diggs may have been the first read originally.

[HoofHearted]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Don't think anyone should be surprised at Cook's higher YPC on gap runs...Bills have ONLY been consistently successful running with gap scheme for years. At least this year they didn't try to force zone down the OLine's throat and have been mostly gap, although perhaps some of the struggles the last few weeks running have been from attempting more zone runs?

They actually ran Midzone well last week. Think it averaged 5 yards a pop iirc. Beat schemes for them last week were Dart and ISO though.

 

Inside zone has been horrific though. For multiple weeks.

Edited October 20, 2023 by HoofHearted

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

8 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Thanks for that.

 

This seems to blow up the narrative that the ball is forced to Diggs too much.

Interesting about Kincaid vs. Knox in terms of catch rate. That does support the narrative that Knox is not a consistent catcher. Just a hunch, but by the end of 2024 Kincaid will have displaced Knox as the number one TE.

Not unless he can become a competent blocker, although Knox still has an occasional drop of an easily catchable ball.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

That’s for the data share. 
 

Kincaid catches the rock. I’d love to see them just give him 1 or 2 opportunities down the field, in the seam, etc to make a play. Even if it’s a contested catch, as a fan, I want to see what we’re working with here. 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Taron Johnson has been balling in coverage...among the best in the NFL this year. Same with Bernard, ranked 5th in the NFL. And look who has been 2nd worst in the NFL...our old friend...

 

 

Ha!! And some on this board wanted Levi Wallace back from Pittsburgh 😂

[strive_for_five_guy]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

I think this may impact many of ours (including myself) view on Allen always targeting Diggs.

When plays break down, Allen is able to keep them alive and he often hits Diggs. I doubt this is counted as a "first read", even though Diggs may have been the first read originally.

Allen’s read progression is this:  If Diggs is first read, throw it to him.  If Diggs is not first read, still throw it to him.

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Not unless he can become a competent blocker, although Knox still has an occasional drop of an easily catchable ball.

I'm sure by the end of next season Kincaid can improve his blocking skills to be good enough to be a starter. There are a lot of starting TEs who aren't great blockers. 

The kid looks like a hard and diligent worker. You don't run routes like that by accident.

[Sierra Foothills]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

 

Great stuff. Thanks for sharing Einstein.

 

#1 and #3 confirm what I have long believed... most people here attribute Josh's greatness to his physical skills. This is partly true.

 

People dismiss or discount that QB is a "neck up" position. If it was simply about physical skills, Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell would be in the Hall of Fame.

 

What separates Mahomes and Allen from all the others is both their athleticism and their football IQ. When you listen to him speak and watch him play it's pretty obvious that Josh is a naturally brilliant person. Not pretentious. Not intellectual. Just brilliant.

 

#9: Josh's avoidance of sacks is nearly unparalleled. He does a deep and shallow shuffle (up and down the ladder) that few QBs employ and it routinely buys him time. Again he's figured out tactics which show that he's a thinking man.

 

8 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

That is interesting about Diggs

 

i made an observation earlier this week that when a play breaks down it appears our guys - other than Diggs - struggle to come back and help Josh by finding an open spot in the field

 

we all watch KC and wonder how Kelce gets open

 

watch a session of those two and it’s like backyard basketball and finding the open spot on the floor

 

rhat first read stat on Diggs makes complete sense to me 

 

I disagree with this. I think the Bills are above average in plaster drills. Diggs is great at it as you say. Gabriel Davis is above average in this area. And Josh isn't making these miracle play extensions without others catching the ball. I think the team overall does a good job of finding voids in the defense when the original play design elapses.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

6 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Great stuff. Thanks for sharing Einstein.

 

#1 and #3 confirm what I have long believed... most people here attribute Josh's greatness to his physical skills. This is partly true.

 

People dismiss or discount that QB is a "neck up" position. If it was simply about physical skills, Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell would be in the Hall of Fame.

 

What separates Mahomes and Allen from all the others is both their athleticism and their football IQ. When you listen to him speak and watch him play it's pretty obvious that Josh is a naturally brilliant person. Not pretentious. Not intellectual. Just brilliant.

 

 

 

I played a lot of pickup basketball during my college years and after, and would often play against guys that seemed as athletically gifted as D1 players, but had only ever made it to the D3 ranks in college.  After talking and interacting with these guys, my main conclusion of why they never would have made it at the D1 level or further was the basketball IQ component.  And then there’s always players with the high IQ for their sport, but just reach a limit athletically (Fitzpatrick).  That’s why people love to watch guys like LeBron or Josh, b/c any given moment you might witness something that the rest of us could only dream of ever doing.

[Not at the table Karlos]

18 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Thanks for that.

 

This seems to blow up the narrative that the ball is forced to Diggs too much.

Interesting about Kincaid vs. Knox in terms of catch rate. That does support the narrative that Knox is not a consistent catcher. Just a hunch, but by the end of 2024 Kincaid will have displaced Knox as the number one TE.

Not really. It just shows his targets as first read. He can still get the ball as second or third read. He's not the first on every play. 

[BearNorth]

Kincaid currently has a higher run blocking grade than Knox.  Morris [who will miss the Pats game] is our top graded tight end, although on a limited number of snaps compared to K&K.  Wondering if Knox needing to stay close to help Spencer Brown is affecting his measurables?

[PBF81]

18 hours ago, ngbills said:

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

 

Sounds like the "new Allen," we should know more in another 6 games or so.  I would imagine that he's still not at steady-state yet.  He's quite likely still figuring a lot of this out on his own.  

 

 

19 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Where does their data come from?

 

https://data.fantasypoints.com/

 

[PBF81]

20 hours ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

 

Great stuff Einstein!!!

 

Great thread prompting some great substantive discussion and posts!!   Only.  LOL  

 

Site looks robust as well.   Was there anything further, like 2nd-reads and their targets, and 3rd-and-others kinda thing, or just first?  

 

I don't know to what extent teams track that stuff.  It'd be an interesting view to see how it relates to the controversial discussions we've been having about Davis.  

 

i.e., Davis' 1st-read target rank, and thinking relative to other #2s.  

 

My initial thoughts on your post and the comments heretofore, are that Allen/Diggs/Davis are performing well.  AKA the execution is there seemingly.  

 

So open question then;  wouldn't the notion that we're executing, and given the backdrop of our two-game offensive woes, seem to indicate then that it is in fact the play-calling/design that's in question as to the primary reason for the low offensive outputs?  (Semi-rhetorical)  IDK, just throwing that out there.  Most of us have our hunches and educated reasons for why we think or conversely do not think that.  

 

This is one of the best threads ever so far.  

 

BTW, there's also an excellent similar type of article re: the D linked on the front page, by Ryan O'Halloran.  He puts together some nice stats as well that touch upon the issues with our rushing D.  It sheds some light on some things, like that this D is likely made for and focuses on a hectic pass-rush, but, and not by design seemingly, at the expense of the rushing D.  

 

 

Edited October 21, 2023 by PBF81