10 interesting stats I have been playing with this week | Allen, Diggs, Cook, Defense

[Rockinon]

19 hours ago, ngbills said:

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

I don't think that is the goal at all, but Allen is taking more of the high percentage, short passes out of necessity. He still likes those downfield shots but defenses are doubling those deep routes. The idea with 12 personnel and running more is to force one of the safeties to play  short. Taking those quick hit passes is just another method to do the same. The Bills definitely want to take deeper shots but you have to get single coverage to do it. Allen took the league by storm with deeper shots in his first couple of seasons. Defenses are adjusting. Josh also must adjust. I think Josh, in play action passes, is pushing the ball downfield a lot. Problem is, if you do that too much, defense sit back there in coverage waiting for opportunities to pick him off.

 

I think Josh is often at his best when he is scrambling and extending plays. There is a concerted effort across the whole offense to suck those defenders in close so Josh can take those deep shots. They aren't trying to turn him into Brady. They are trying to open up that deep ball game and also become more diverse with play calling. They've had some success all ready. I think they are only going to improve as the season progresses. We all love those big plays. They will come, though. Patience....

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

People just don’t like their team losin lol around the league a bunch of great qbs are having tough games any given week but nobody notices 

 

I think Miami being in our division has skewed some people’s perceptions about what expectations for an nfl offense should be which is understandable, I do think they will continue to struggle against good teams while demolishing bad teams though but we’ll see 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

20 hours ago, eball said:

 

He had one bad game (half, really) -- and it was one of the worst of his career.  Since then he's been brilliant.  I just wish he'd run a bit more when it's wide open in front of him.

 

 

Agreed. Running less, okay. Running HALF the amount times he has in the past!? That's too much of a reduction. I just want to see him go nuts in the postseason with the running. 

[HoofHearted]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sounds like the "new Allen," we should know more in another 6 games or so.  I would imagine that he's still not at steady-state yet.  He's quite likely still figuring a lot of this out on his own.  

 

 

 

https://data.fantasypoints.com/

 

Any idea who’s doing the data mining?

[BigAl2526]

23 hours ago, Einstein said:

I'm assuming the first WR the QB focuses on after the snap. That's a fairly clear indicator.

However, this is one of several questions I have asked them for clarification on.

I'm guessing that this stat has to involve a certain amount of conjecture.  I'm sure there are times when a really good QB will look off their first read initially in order draw coverage away from him.  What might look like a checkdown could in fact be the intended target all along. 

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'm guessing that this stat has to involve a certain amount of conjecture.  

Sure. 

But as long as the data uses the same methodology for all QB's, you can still make accurate comparisons. This is because the comparisons would be based on a standardized process, which is essential for understanding relative differences or similarities.

 

33 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Any idea who’s doing the data mining?

I submitted this question to them and will report back when I hear. If I were to guess i'd say PFF, simply because of their connection PFF.

[GoBills808]

30 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Any idea who’s doing the data mining?

My guess is they either purchase existing PFF data wholesale or farm out the specific info they are looking for to the same analysts. 

 

Which would make it significantly less interesting imo. I do not trust PFF analysts to know what QB reads/progressions are on a given play.

[Einstein]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I do not trust PFF analysts to know what QB reads/progressions are on a given play.

I would.

I certainly would not trust it to be 100% accurate, but as a comparison tool absolutely.

PFF employees many former NFL player and executives.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Einstein said:

I would.

I certainly would not trust it to be 100% accurate, but as a comparison tool absolutely.

PFF employees many former NFL player and executives.

You shouldn't imo. The people breaking down the film are not former NFL players and executives. In many cases they have never played the sport in their lives.

[Nephilim17]

5 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Not really. It just shows his targets as first read. He can still get the ball as second or third read. He's not the first on every play. 

The math is not, as you suggest, totally obvius.

 

But the fact that  Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets suggests, to me at least, that Diggs is usually the first read. Also, he's far and away our best target so I would be surprised if Diggs is not the first read the majority of the time.

 

That said, outside of the stats, the eye test tells us Josh doesn't always spread the ball around enough. Not every game but some games he locks onto Steph too much. I think it's a trust issue. 

When this offense can consistently spread the ball around to multiple targets, it will be very, very hard to stop. 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You shouldn't imo. The people breaking down the film are not former NFL players and executives. In many cases they have never played the sport in their lives.

 

I think you may have a misunderstanding of how PFF grades. 

If this were the case, NFL and College teams wouldn't be paying PFF 6+ figures every year for their data.

 

The grading is not one-and-done.

 

It is first graded by an analyst, then it gets sent for review by a more knowledgeable analyst, and then it goes for final review by a senior analyst (I remember reading that Solomon Wilcots was a senior analyst).

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I remember reading that Solomon Wilcots was a senior analyst

 

That's really interesting, if true.

I loved Solomon Wilcots; he was one of the very best in the business before it became a shouting contest.

Genuinely smart guy. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

I think you may have a misunderstanding of how PFF grades. 

If this were the case, NFL and College teams wouldn't be paying PFF 6+ figures every year for their data.

 

The grading is not one-and-done.

 

It is first graded by an analyst, then it gets sent for review by a more knowledgeable analyst, and then it goes for final review by a senior analyst (I remember reading that Solomon Wilcots was a senior analyst).

I can almost 100% guarantee you teams are not paying for grades. They are paying for the metadata that doesn't rely on analysts.

[balln]

23 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

That's really interesting, if true.

I loved Solomon Wilcots; he was one of the very best in the business before it became a shouting contest.

Genuinely smart guy. 

Wisdom of Solomon ! 
 

I think was what cbs called his “keys to the game”

[Einstein]

32 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

That's really interesting, if true.

I loved Solomon Wilcots; he was one of the very best in the business before it became a shouting contest.

Genuinely smart guy. 

 

It piqued my attention too when I saw it. It was several years ago.

I think he may have stopped working for them, because this is the last time I see his analysis on PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-wilcots-the-nfls-most-underappreciated-defensive-players

 

.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Einstein

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I can almost 100% guarantee you teams are not paying for grades. They are paying for the metadata that doesn't rely on analysts.

 

 

I think you are mistaken if they don't pay attention to grades or anything but vague "metadata".    You are giving the teams way too much credit.   Teams have about 24 hours to put together gameplans on Monday morning.   It's abundantly clear that there isn't a great deal of "metadata" being analyzed for some of this scouting and self-scouting.  Like most things NFL,  fans tend to give the team and players far too much credit for work they are doing individually.    

[Don Otreply]

On 10/20/2023 at 1:49 PM, Virgil said:

How do they know what the first read is?

As well, is the first read open, or is Josh looking for a longer pass completion?  We will likely never No for certain, 

 

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I think you are mistaken if they don't pay attention to grades or anything but vague "metadata".    You are giving the teams way too much credit.   Teams have about 24 hours to put together gameplans on Monday morning.   It's abundantly clear that there isn't a great deal of "metadata" being analyzed for some of this scouting and self-scouting.  Like most things NFL,  fans tend to give the team and players far too much credit for work they are doing individually.    

Agreed. 

There is a reason why Chris Collinsworth is so invested in PFF. He saw the market opportunity for teams that need fast turnaround and took it. 

There is only so much film that 12 coaches can dig through in 72 hours. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

Agreed. 

There is a reason why Chris Collinsworth is so invested in PFF. He saw the market opportunity for teams that need fast turnaround and took it. 

There is only so much film that 12 coaches can dig through in 72 hours. 

That is not what I understand at all

 

Collinsworth got in and immediately PFF pivoted to consumer side fantasy and gambling

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That is not what I understand at all

 

Collinsworth got in and immediately PFF pivoted to consumer side fantasy and gambling

 

Prior to Collinsworth, only a few teams bought the data. A year after Collinsworth took over, 30 of 32 teams bought it. Now, all 32 do.

While I do not trust the data blindly, I do believe it is fairly accurate. 

 

"(PFF) has hired former NFL figures, including longtime assistant coach Gunther Cunningham, former Redskins lineman Will Montgomery, and former Redskins assistant Bobby Slowik, who since has returned to coaching. Analyses are checked and cross-checked and re-checked; Collinsworth said he has seen single plays debated for 15 minutes, and that “if there’s any ambiguity at all” on a particular play, analysts are told not to downgrade a player. Longtime Bengals offensive line coach Paul Alexander last season reviewed about 600 plays where PFF had downgraded one of his blockers; he told company founder Neil Hornsby that he disagreed with perhaps 12, “which is pretty remarkable,” Alexander said." (link)

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Prior to Collinsworth, only a few teams bought the data. A year after Collinsworth took over, 30 of 32 teams bought it. Now, all 32 do.

While I do not trust the data blindly, I do believe it is fairly accurate. 

 

"(PFF) has hired former NFL figures, including longtime assistant coach Gunther Cunningham, former Redskins lineman Will Montgomery, and former Redskins assistant Bobby Slowik, who since has returned to coaching. Analyses are checked and cross-checked and re-checked; Collinsworth said he has seen single plays debated for 15 minutes, and that “if there’s any ambiguity at all” on a particular play, analysts are told not to downgrade a player. Longtime Bengals offensive line coach Paul Alexander last season reviewed about 600 plays where PFF had downgraded one of his blockers; he told company founder Neil Hornsby that he disagreed with perhaps 12, “which is pretty remarkable,” Alexander said." (link)

🤙

Don't get me wrong, I think there's value in what they do 

 

I'm just saying I'm terms of that value, something more easily quantifiable for that kind of analysis like frequencies of personnel packages, down/distance tendencies...that data has value for sure. But discerning a QBS first reads or player grades I doubt have much value to teams. 

 

Teams can barely grade their own players properly😂😂

[HoofHearted]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

Sure. 

But as long as the data uses the same methodology for all QB's, you can still make accurate comparisons. This is because the comparisons would be based on a standardized process, which is essential for understanding relative differences or similarities.

 

I submitted this question to them and will report back when I hear. If I were to guess i'd say PFF, simply because of their connection PFF.

That’d be disheartening… PGF outsources their grunt work to India which for most things isn’t an issue - but you’d like to have actual football people do the subjective stuff

Edited October 21, 2023 by HoofHearted

[HoofHearted]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I think you may have a misunderstanding of how PFF grades. 

If this were the case, NFL and College teams wouldn't be paying PFF 6+ figures every year for their data.

 

The grading is not one-and-done.

 

It is first graded by an analyst, then it gets sent for review by a more knowledgeable analyst, and then it goes for final review by a senior analyst (I remember reading that Solomon Wilcots was a senior analyst).

The teams don’t pay for the grades. Those are useless to them. The teams pay for the raw data because they can manipulate it however they want to find tendencies.

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Any idea who’s doing the data mining?

 

No, but given the affiliation, presumably the data's coming from the NFL.  

 

It's not so much the data, it's what people do with it.  

 

 

[LeGOATski]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I think you may have a misunderstanding of how PFF grades. 

If this were the case, NFL and College teams wouldn't be paying PFF 6+ figures every year for their data.

 

The grading is not one-and-done.

 

It is first graded by an analyst, then it gets sent for review by a more knowledgeable analyst, and then it goes for final review by a senior analyst (I remember reading that Solomon Wilcots was a senior analyst).

They pay for the data, not the grades. Solomon Wilcots is not going over all the grades for every player. It's moreso just QA. The grades are still garbage.

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think you are mistaken if they don't pay attention to grades or anything but vague "metadata".    You are giving the teams way too much credit.   Teams have about 24 hours to put together gameplans on Monday morning.   It's abundantly clear that there isn't a great deal of "metadata" being analyzed for some of this scouting and self-scouting.  Like most things NFL,  fans tend to give the team and players far too much credit for work they are doing individually.    

You are not giving teams enough credit. This is why coaches lose a lot of sleep during the season.

[Beck Water]

22 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Allen’s read progression is this:  If Diggs is first read, throw it to him.  If Diggs is not first read, still throw it to him.

 

Some truth to this.

 

Alternative read progression: If Gabe is the first read deep, wait as long as you can to see if you can possibly throw to him.  Then throw to Diggs.

[Dukestreetking]

22 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Kincaid catches the rock. I’d love to see them just give him 1 or 2 opportunities down the field, in the seam, etc to make a play. Even if it’s a contested catch, as a fan, I want to see what we’re working with here

 

Agree, and this is kinda strange: Giants game, 2nd down/2nd series, Bills put Gilliam at slot, and he ran a deep out.

 

No split release, just up seam and to the boundary. Looked open.*

 

I don't recall a similar release for DK but I obviously could be wrong. If not, would very much like to see they/him hit this route.

 

*Apologies for repeating myself: I mentioned this in an earlier thread.

 

[MJS]

On 10/20/2023 at 2:24 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I say no.

 

I want him to play like he always has. This version is...vanilla and beige.

 

LOTS of people here disagree with me about that because they're afraid. Give me the mad bomber melon farmer

I see where you are coming from and I somewhat agree, at least partially. But Allen needs to be able to play a boring, efficient game and stick with it for an entire game if that is what it takes for him to win that game.

 

Ideally, that would be 70% of the games you play in the regular season. That other 30%, though, and in the playoffs, the "mad bomber" Allen needs to be able to come out when he is called upon.

 

The perfect form of Allen is when he is able to turn it on and turn it off, sometimes in the same game, depending on what the situation calls for. This latest iteration of Allen is him learning how to play calmly and efficiently for full stretches of games, which is a super important step in his progression, even if it is boring sometimes.

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

You are not giving teams enough credit. This is why coaches lose a lot of sleep during the season.

 

First off, the teams don't put together game plans on Monday morning.  The position coaches stay up all night analyzing film and GPS data from Sunday's game.  They grade the players and do "corrections" with the players in a light practice on Monday.  These days with ipads, players may review their own film on the flight home or go home and watch it Sunday night. 

Then the players have Tuesday off, while the assistants and coaches work as hard as they can to put together a game plan from data and film that the assistants assigned to advance scouting have assembled on the next opponent, with whatever their most recent game plan added in.

 

Josh Allen said Daboll used to send out the game plan Tuesday afternoon which was considered early and helpful; more usual would be Weds morning, when position groups review it in meetings and then the team walks through it in practice.

 

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Beck Water

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

The teams don’t pay for the grades. Those are useless to them. The teams pay for the raw data because they can manipulate it however they want to find tendencies.

What raw data does PFF have, that is not available to the NFL already for free?

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, Chaos said:

What raw data does PFF have, that is not available to the NFL already for free?

I believe it's stuff like how many times X team runs certain personnel packages, or what frequency they're in shotgun vs under center, run/pass splits depending on down and distance and by what part of the game etc etc...stuff that PFF can aggregate in digestible form. You don't need a strong football background to count numbers on jerseys 

 

I would be wary of using anything they're presenting that relies on knowing playbooks or reads and player grades tho

[Beck Water]

50 minutes ago, Chaos said:

What raw data does PFF have, that is not available to the NFL already for free?

 

My understanding is PFF tracks all sorts of details like what plays a team runs with certain personnel on the field, what plays they run in specific down and distance situations, so forth and so on.

[Richard Noggin]

On 10/20/2023 at 3:39 PM, Charles Romes said:

How can you tell if it’s the first read. Doesn’t the QB normally look off the first read. That would make the second read the first read. 

 

They often do that by looking at DEFENDERS (safeties usually) they want to manipulate/freeze, rather than looking at a different target. 

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, Einstein said:

I think you may have a misunderstanding of how PFF grades. 

If this were the case, NFL and College teams wouldn't be paying PFF 6+ figures every year for their data.

 

I get so tired of hearing this.  The NFL is not paying PFF for their player grades. There is a ton of stuff that PFF provides the NFL teams that isn't even available to the public.  I have posted a few times now everything the NFL gets for that money.  Player grades are a microscopic data point compared to what they receive for that money.  Just because player grades are part of the package, doesn't mean the NFL takes any stock into those grades.

 

For example, PFF provides NFL teams with things like how often a team runs each formation, what type of plays are run out of that formation and how often. What teams run on each down, etc. Things like that are what is valuable to an NFL team each week when a team only has a week or less to prepare for an opponent.  I doubt any team cares that PFF rates X player 84.5 or 24.3.  Thats small potatoes.

 

This is what teams pay for: https://media.pff.com/2018/08/PFF-Play-Data-Fields.pdf

 

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Scott7975

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I get so tired of hearing this.  The NFL is not paying PFF for their player grades.

 

You may be tired of hearing it from others, but as for myself, I never said anything about the NFL paying for player grades.

 

I specifically noted that NFL teams pay for PFF’s “data”.

 

I think you perhaps got confused by the words “how PFF grades”. Meaning, how they map each play - everything from formation, to splits, to man/zone schemes, etc. Perhaps I should I have used a different word, though I thought my clarifying second sentence made it clear.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Einstein

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You may be tired of hearing it from others, but as for myself, I never said anything about the NFL paying for player grades.

 

I specifically noted that NFL teams for PFF’s “data”.

 

I think you perhaps got confused by the words “how PFF grades”. Meaning, how they interpret a play - everything from formation, to splits, to man/zone schemes, etc. Perhaps I should I have used a different word, though none is coming to mind at the moment.

 

 

 

Yeah they are just so caught up with their vendetta against player grades that they are denying that even the other data you mentioned is being used.   

 

 

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

My understanding is PFF tracks all sorts of details like what plays a team runs with certain personnel on the field, what plays they run in specific down and distance situations, so forth and so on.

This seems to require some level of analysis. Indicating a certain level of trust by teams for PFF to interpret what they are reviewing 

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah they are just so caught up with their vendetta against player grades that they are denying that even the other data you mentioned is being used.   

 

 

I have no vendetta against player grades. I don’t care about them at all because they are completely subjective. Considering I posted a link to the actual data being used and that was actually my argument that it was other data being used and not player grades, your statement is wrong. 

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

You may be tired of hearing it from others, but as for myself, I never said anything about the NFL paying for player grades.

 

I specifically noted that NFL teams pay for PFF’s “data”.

 

I think you perhaps got confused by the words “how PFF grades”. Meaning, how they map each play - everything from formation, to splits, to man/zone schemes, etc. Perhaps I should I have used a different word, though I thought my clarifying second sentence made it clear.

 

then I misunderstood what you said but I have seen you say it in the past. 

[HoofHearted]

11 hours ago, Chaos said:

What raw data does PFF have, that is not available to the NFL already for free?

All of the raw data that goes into film breakdown on a per play basis so things like Team, ODK, QTR, Time, Series, P&10, Series, Dn, Dist, Gain/Loss, Hash, Yd Ln, Play Type (Run or Pass), Result (Cmp, Inc, Rush, TD, etc.), PFF tracks the jersey number of every player on the field on a per play basis, Jersey number of players who touched the ball offensively on a given play (QB, RB, WR/TE), etc.

 

And then the teams will input their own data using their terminology for the football specific stuff. All of the base data that anyone can gather though is extremely time consuming to input manually.

[Einstein]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah they are just so caught up with their vendetta against player grades that they are denying that even the other data you mentioned is being used.   

 

 

Bingo.