is two deep the blueprint on how to beat the Bills?

[Coldfronts]

 

[colin]

so, the nfl has almost entirely copied what mcd (and others, lets be honest) more or less pioneered, the disguise coverage deep safety very balanced 4-3 D.  that can be run more or less aggressively, but everyone is 4-3 nickel base now.

 

So ya, it makes sense they put this stuf fin to slow down mahomes and allen (and have done so, for the most part).  

 

to me our issue is the oc and allen together don't read things presnap to punish the d for being biased in their D.  we sort of try to beat all defenses w every play, but if the other team is playing advantage football taking one thing away, it should leave them soft vs something else and we don't do a good enough job of reading that and exploiting it.  

 

not having a zone buster like bease makes us hold the ball too long vs zone, josh not running doesn't punish man enough, and imo a big issue is our protections are simple and exploitable, so when there are long developing zone beater routes, we might get a stunt and overload on the spencer brown side, and then we have what we did vs jax.

 

it's all correctable, but do we have the coaching to do it?

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I didn’t watch the video just going off the title. Teams have been playing 2 deep vs the Bills for years. Bills and Chiefs see it the most, at least over the last few years. 2 deep is nothing knew to the Bills offense.

 

Last year Josh Allen was ranked 2nd EPA vs two high safeties. Not sure what this this year. But his EPA is better this year.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[boyst]

Without a sufficient under route runner we are doing to have this problem.

 

deep routes would be successful if we put a TE down the seam as a 2nd or 3rd read, while running crosses and hooks for the first read. since we are not using the TE we can have them split seams  - and frankly, it's concerning that Kincaid is not able to recognize the game enough to be doing this.

 

josh can't find his deep targets, his middle zones which come in under the deep safeties don't get the separation needed while he has been unwilling to put the ball in the sweet spot - possibly due to fears of being tagged a INT prone QB again.

 

Josh has checked down to the RB and other low-risk players a lot this season. i can't convince myself this is intentional. i have a feeling this will be a hard habit to break and he is reminding me of big ben in his later stages.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

We should have more RAC ability in the skill positions, particularly the receiving core. Diggs is the only WR really effective in that area and we're too reliant on him as a result.

[Mr. WEO]

17 minutes ago, boyst said:

Without a sufficient under route runner we are doing to have this problem.

 

deep routes would be successful if we put a TE down the seam as a 2nd or 3rd read, while running crosses and hooks for the first read. since we are not using the TE we can have them split seams  - and frankly, it's concerning that Kincaid is not able to recognize the game enough to be doing this.

 

josh can't find his deep targets, his middle zones which come in under the deep safeties don't get the separation needed while he has been unwilling to put the ball in the sweet spot - possibly due to fears of being tagged a INT prone QB again.

 

Josh has checked down to the RB and other low-risk players a lot this season. i can't convince myself this is intentional. i have a feeling this will be a hard habit to break and he is reminding me of big ben in his later stages.

 

That's Diggs.

[BuffaloBill]

23 minutes ago, boyst said:

Without a sufficient under route runner we are doing to have this problem.

 

deep routes would be successful if we put a TE down the seam as a 2nd or 3rd read, while running crosses and hooks for the first read. since we are not using the TE we can have them split seams  - and frankly, it's concerning that Kincaid is not able to recognize the game enough to be doing this.

 

josh can't find his deep targets, his middle zones which come in under the deep safeties don't get the separation needed while he has been unwilling to put the ball in the sweet spot - possibly due to fears of being tagged a INT prone QB again.

 

Josh has checked down to the RB and other low-risk players a lot this season. i can't convince myself this is intentional. i have a feeling this will be a hard habit to break and he is reminding me of big ben in his later stages.

 

How can you say checking down this year is not intentional? Everyone was riding JA last year for long heroball throws that with some frequency were picked off.  Additionally he has been coached to run less.  His game has changed and he is still learning (in my opinion).  I do not see JA as being done with the rise in his game.  He his a hyper talented QB who is continuing to evolve and learn.

[T&C]

This is where a decent/lethal running game comes into play, pulls the safeties closer to the LOS. Really hope we land Fournette.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

Without a sufficient under route runner we are doing to have this problem.

 

deep routes would be successful if we put a TE down the seam as a 2nd or 3rd read, while running crosses and hooks for the first read. since we are not using the TE we can have them split seams  - and frankly, it's concerning that Kincaid is not able to recognize the game enough to be doing this.

 

josh can't find his deep targets, his middle zones which come in under the deep safeties don't get the separation needed while he has been unwilling to put the ball in the sweet spot - possibly due to fears of being tagged a INT prone QB again.

 

Josh has checked down to the RB and other low-risk players a lot this season. i can't convince myself this is intentional. i have a feeling this will be a hard habit to break and he is reminding me of big ben in his later stages.

Big Ben checking down in his later stages was because his arm was shot.  Josh and this offense are working through some kinks in recent weeks, including the mental element which you’re referencing too, but his arm talent is still best in class.

[thenorthremembers]

I mean this is nothing new.  Teams started using two deep against both the Bills and Chiefs close to two years ago.

 

Its the recipe when Josh plays hero ball and forces it.  Its not when he relies on underneath routes.   Two deep isn't some mystery that can't be solved.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Coldfronts said:

 

 

Your title is very misleading. The video shows C-3 and C-4 coverages against the Bills. No “two deep” or C-2 plays are shown. 

 

Obviously it’s not this simple in the NFL, but the elementary answers to beating those coverages are: 

C-3: routes in the seams and flats

C-4: underneath routes, especially meshes as well as running the ball

Edited October 18, 2023 by BarleyNY

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

That's Diggs.

it just  isn't happening right now. when he's the only target and he's being bracketed we need to have other options and we just aren't using them, or trusting them, or recognizing them. it's infuriating. 

58 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

How can you say checking down this year is not intentional? Everyone was riding JA last year for long heroball throws that with some frequency were picked off.  Additionally he has been coached to run less.  His game has changed and he is still learning (in my opinion).  I do not see JA as being done with the rise in his game.  He his a hyper talented QB who is continuing to evolve and learn.

i meant unintentional. was entirely distracted this morning. 

 

it's like all the information and influence that has been put upon him the last 2+ years has finally sank in and made this hybrid mutt of a player. i am, as i said, concerned that he will easily transition out of it to be take-over josh.

22 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Big Ben checking down in his later stages was because his arm was shot.  Josh and this offense are working through some kinks in recent weeks, including the mental element which you’re referencing too, but his arm talent is still best in class.

oh, i know. but it's like josh is just surrendering to these throws vs. find the holes. i have some hope after those TD's he threw last week - especially to Gilliam that his confidence is there and his trust in players is there - this is a big reason why i like Gilliam at TE. he has the best hands of our TE corps.

[Bob Jones]

The play analyzed starting at 6:00 minutes is just mind boggling. The Bills receiver running a straight route in the middle of the field is 20 yards downfield with a defender 10 yards behind him (who is not even paying attention to him, and he sees that as he turns back to look at JA17), and another defender 10 yards in front of him, yet he keeps running toward the defender in front of him! Are they not coached that when they are given that much free space just to stop, turn around, and sit there and wait for the minimum 20 yard completion? Seems like the latter would be common sense even if not coached to do so, but I’m not a professional NFL receiver, so what do I know? 🙄

[Big Turk]

I doubt it...they have been facing 2 deep coverages for a few years now and it usually doesn't work well.  I think what works is stunts up front with the DLine that seems to confuse the pass protection far too often still and delayed blitzes coming from different areas of depth with guys dropping out that are near the line. Allen doesn't seem to know where his "answer" is quick enough against that.

 

Cook in pass protection has been tremendously bad the last 2 games and is going to get Allen killed if he doesn't improve quickly. As in he has multiple "Ole!" blocks where he doesn't even lay a hand on the blitzer and they just run right around him.

 

2 of note in particular that I have seen in real time is the one against the Jags where Davis drops the 3rd down pass along the sideline after Allen had to rush the throw thanks to Cook's "block" and then again last game where Allen basically had to avoid the rusher again and stepped up and threw a completion to Diggs for the first down.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[Captain Hindsight]

If they can run the ball, they can win any game 

[John from Riverside]

Too deep safety just means the Josh needs to go to his check downs
 

I think he has done a much better job of that this year. The common theme of the teams that have beaten us have been strong, defensive lines, so that they can just rush four

 

Thors he needs to figure that out and now

[H2o]

They do the same thing with Mahomes now. Same exact thing. They want to eliminate the big plays and force these QB's to methodically go down the field. For guys with the big arms, who love to push the ball down the field, it's a big adjustment. It also makes the shots you get that much more important to take advantage of. He's not wrong, but he's also not going into the whole story either.

 

I think in many instances, Josh's first read is what the issue may be. I do think some of it has to do with Diggs temperament or need to touch the ball 15 times. I do think at times it is because Allen only really trusts Diggs. Then mix Dorsey into the equation as well with his lack of creativity at times in the passing game. If you watch the All-22 style then you see various guys open at certain points, but Josh's eyes are elsewhere on the plays. Gabe was open a couple of times. Cook was open multiple times. But either do to play design, trust issues, or Josh maybe not seeing the whole field for whatever reason, the plays that could have been made were not.

 

We've seen this offense click and we've seen this offense sputter. Hopefully, this year, we hit that stretch where things are firing on all cylinders when it matters most. 

[The Frankish Reich]

51 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Cook in pass protection has been tremendously bad the last 2 games and is going to get Allen killed if he doesn't improve quickly. As in he has multiple "Ole!" blocks where he doesn't even lay a hand on the blitzer and they just run right around him.

Right. This is becoming a serious problem, and probably why you're seeing Latavius in there on 3rd down passing situations.

Being an effective RB is not just about yards per carry. Cook actually appeared to shy away from contact on one of those plays.

Edited October 18, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right. This is becoming a serious problem, and probably why you're seeing Latavius in there on 3rd down passing situations.

Being an effective RB is not just about yards per carry. Cook actually appeared to shy away from contact on one of those plays.

 

The only positive is that in the Giants game at least after whiffing initially and Allen avoiding him and stepping up, Cook then doubled back and drove the defender about 5-6 yards further back and completely out of the play so there wasn't a chance he could hit Allen from behind after running by him.

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, Coldfronts said:

 

A throwback to Cook on this play would be something nice to see

1 hour ago, boyst said:

it just  isn't happening right now. when he's the only target and he's being bracketed we need to have other options and we just aren't using them, or trusting them, or recognizing them. it's infuriating. 

i meant unintentional. was entirely distracted this morning. 

 

it's like all the information and influence that has been put upon him the last 2+ years has finally sank in and made this hybrid mutt of a player. i am, as i said, concerned that he will easily transition out of it to be take-over josh.

oh, i know. but it's like josh is just surrendering to these throws vs. find the holes. i have some hope after those TD's he threw last week - especially to Gilliam that his confidence is there and his trust in players is there - this is a big reason why i like Gilliam at TE. he has the best hands of our TE corps.

Isn't Gilliam the FB? 

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

A throwback to Cook on this play would be something nice to see

Isn't Gilliam the FB? 

he is a FB/TE

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

it just  isn't happening right now. when he's the only target and he's being bracketed we need to have other options and we just aren't using them, or trusting them, or recognizing them. it's infuriating. 

i meant unintentional. was entirely distracted this morning. 

 

it's like all the information and influence that has been put upon him the last 2+ years has finally sank in and made this hybrid mutt of a player. i am, as i said, concerned that he will easily transition out of it to be take-over josh.

oh, i know. but it's like josh is just surrendering to these throws vs. find the holes. i have some hope after those TD's he threw last week - especially to Gilliam that his confidence is there and his trust in players is there - this is a big reason why i like Gilliam at TE. he has the best hands of our TE corps.

Don’t discount Kincaid and his hands.  He only dropped two catches in his college career and has 17 receptions on 19 targets so far in the NFL.  I know some are disappointed in Kincaid’s results so far, although his role and connection with Josh should only improve over time.

Edited October 18, 2023 by strive_for_five_guy

[boyst]

Just now, strive_for_five_guy said:

Don’t discount Kincaid and his hands.  He only dropped two catches in his college career and has 17 receptions on 19 targets so far in the NFL.  I know some are disappointed in Kincaid’s results so far, although his role and connection with Josh should only improve over time.

i don't judge rookies on their rookie year....well, i try not to.

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, colin said:

so, the nfl has almost entirely copied what mcd (and others, lets be honest) more or less pioneered, the disguise coverage deep safety very balanced 4-3 D.  that can be run more or less aggressively, but everyone is 4-3 nickel base now.

 

So ya, it makes sense they put this stuf fin to slow down mahomes and allen (and have done so, for the most part).  

 

to me our issue is the oc and allen together don't read things presnap to punish the d for being biased in their D.  we sort of try to beat all defenses w every play, but if the other team is playing advantage football taking one thing away, it should leave them soft vs something else and we don't do a good enough job of reading that and exploiting it.  

 

not having a zone buster like bease makes us hold the ball too long vs zone, josh not running doesn't punish man enough, and imo a big issue is our protections are simple and exploitable, so when there are long developing zone beater routes, we might get a stunt and overload on the spencer brown side, and then we have what we did vs jax.

 

it's all correctable, but do we have the coaching to do it?

 

This really isn’t any sort of surprise.  All of the talk last year was improving the run game and finding slot options with YAC to counter the 2 high looks.  

 

The offense has improved in these areas but not as much as everyone would like.   Certainly not enough to make teams pay.

 

I think the problem is partly on coaching…also on Josh to do a better job with making the right decision at the right time, and on the receivers to get into the right spots in the defense.  
 

It’s only week 6….theres still time 

[The Red King]

If only we drafted a TE that could provide mid-field relief for Josh.  Oh...wait...we did?  Okay, if we only had an OC that would actually use that TE in that role...

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

We should have more RAC ability in the skill positions, particularly the receiving core. Diggs is the only WR really effective in that area and we're too reliant on him as a result.

 

Um.... (click to embiggen)
 

 

It's notable that Shakir, Harty, Knox and Kincaid all have more YAC than YBC.  Sherfield is 4 yds off an even split.

 

Now a large part of that, of course, is how Diggs and Davis are used, but to say that Diggs "is the only WR really effective in that area" or to imply that's the reason we're reliant on him, is simply not correct.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Coldfronts said:

 

 

Yes, Cover2 is commonly used to take away the deep throws and keep everything underneath.

Yes, it has been effective against the Bills especially when the plays called try to push it deep, or when Josh tries to force it deep against good coverage of Diggs or Davis.

 

But this isn't novel, and it won't be consistent, just as the defensive coverage the Bills used to slow Miami isn't going to be consistent.  And it won't work if Dorsey and Josh pivot, and take what the defense offers them

 

It reminds me of a podcast Brett Kollman (The Film Room) did after the Bills-Dolphins game 3 where he revealed the KEY to slowing Josh Allen - kind of ignoring that the Bills put up 497 yds of offense in a heat-stroke game that saw one of their OTs playing snaps on a torn ACL because there was no one else left.  The Bills, of course, went on to be the #4 offense in the NFL and flame out in the Divisional round, either because they were emotionally drained and suffering 1 too many injuries, or because their HC and OC should be fired (your choice)

 

You got to remember that these guys are now "in it" to generate clicks and views, and you don't do that by being even handed and meticulous in your X's and O's knowledge.  That's why we get pieces from Kollman that...um....don't age as well as the single malt he touts, like "Mac Jones terrifies me".

 

3 hours ago, boyst said:

it just  isn't happening right now. when he's the only target and he's being bracketed we need to have other options and we just aren't using them, or trusting them, or recognizing them. it's infuriating.

 

Preach!

 

3 hours ago, boyst said:

oh, i know. but it's like josh is just surrendering to these throws vs. find the holes. i have some hope after those TD's he threw last week - especially to Gilliam that his confidence is there and his trust in players is there - this is a big reason why i like Gilliam at TE. he has the best hands of our TE corps.

 

I love me some Sledge, and I wish Gilliam would get a little more airplay, but I believe you mean Morris (and Gilliam has good hands for a FB/TE, but Morris is a converted WR and has the routes and the hands to prove it)

 

1 hour ago, boyst said:

i don't judge rookies on their rookie year....well, i try not to.

 

Bernard and Williams say "hi".  I mean, I own my receipts, I did it too with Bernard.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[boyst]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yes, Cover2 is commonly used to take away the deep throws and keep everything underneath.

Yes, it has been effective against the Bills especially when the plays called try to push it deep, or when Josh tries to force it deep against good coverage of Diggs or Davis.

 

But this isn't novel, and it won't be consistent, just as the defensive coverage the Bills used to slow Miami isn't going to be consistent.  And it won't work if Dorsey and Josh pivot, and take what the defense offers them

 

It reminds me of a podcast Brett Kollman (The Film Room) did after the Bills-Dolphins game 3 where he revealed the KEY to slowing Josh Allen - kind of ignoring that the Bills put up 497 yds of offense in a heat-stroke game that saw one of their OTs playing snaps on a torn ACL because there was no one else left.  The Bills, of course, went on to be the #4 offense in the NFL and flame out in the Divisional round, either because they were emotionally drained and suffering 1 too many injuries, or because their HC and OC should be fired (your choice)

 

You got to remember that these guys are now "in it" to generate clicks and views, and you don't do that by being even handed and meticulous in your X's and O's knowledge.  That's why we get pieces from Kollman that...um....don't age as well as the single malt he touts, like "Mac Jones terrifies me".

 

 

Preach!

 

 

I love me some Sledge, and I wish Gilliam would get a little more airplay, but I believe you mean Morris (and Gilliam has good hands for a FB/TE, but Morris is a converted WR and has the routes and the hands to prove it)

 

 

Bernard and Williams say "hi".  I mean, I own my receipts, I did it too with Bernard.

I have been somewhat held back on Williams. I just don't think he should be starting. I don't think he is a failure as a career. I just don't think he belongs on the field and it should have been obvious to coaches. 

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, boyst said:

I have been somewhat held back on Williams. I just don't think he should be starting. I don't think he is a failure as a career. I just don't think he belongs on the field and it should have been obvious to coaches. 

 

I guess I'm 'toting a bone' here, but you sounded pretty definitive on Williams already.  "We know his floor" "Lifetime Special Teamer" etc sure sounded like career pronouncements.

 

We'd obviously be better off and Williams would not be starting if Milano hadn't been injured, but I thought he shows massive improvement in his 2nd game vs. the Giants over getting thrown in vs. the Jags, which is promising - so I'm ready to wait and see.  I think he'll probably make a couple mistakes a game, but that may be better, overall, than Klein who would know exactly what his assignment is at all times and exactly where he ought to be, but won't physically be able to get there.

 

The main "Captain Obvious" takehome for me is that with all the injuries leading to playing lesser players at DT and starting young players or rookies, the offense better get its collective head out of its rear orifice, and quickly.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[dayman]

The answer is break tackles so they can’t let you get the short stuff. We do not break tackles. Never have. Maybe never will. Not sure why.

[78thealltimegreat]

Teams simply aren’t going to give the bills the deep shots anymore. We have to get used to boring football long winding drives. The only way out of that is guys who can break one after the catch maybe Harty as the season emerges  

[strive_for_five_guy]

On 10/18/2023 at 10:51 AM, boyst said:

i don't judge rookies on their rookie year....well, i try not to.

You like Kincaid’s hands yet? 😉 The kid can catch the ball, it’s one of his top traits and will be for a long time.

[boyst]

10 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

You like Kincaid’s hands yet? 😉 The kid can catch the ball, it’s one of his top traits and will be for a long time.

Catching is neat if you're jastr a wr.

 

The dude needs to develop a tinch more of the TE role.