2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

No turnovers?

 

I think we win, but get real

I mean he's only had 1 in each of his last 3 games, in the Jets game it was literally from a stupid Hailmary play to end the half that really had nothing to do with poor decision making or anything, and in the other two games he made like 1 or 2 bad passes and gets burned immediately like what are the ***** odds of that, like most people get away with a few.

[FireChans]

54 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean he's only had 1 in each of his last 3 games, in the Jets game it was literally from a stupid Hailmary play to end the half that really had nothing to do with poor decision making or anything, and in the other two games he made like 1 or 2 bad passes and gets burned immediately like what are the ***** odds of that, like most people get away with a few.

He has at least 1 INT in 9 straight games and only has 2 games this season without an INT. I don’t think it’s insane to think he’s probably gonna have at least one turnover lol.

Edited December 15, 2023 by FireChans

[mrags]

3 hours ago, WNYFAN1 said:

"He’s on pace to throw for his 2nd highest yards in a single season." Who in the heck would care about this stat???

Idk? I don’t. The argument was that somehow Josh is not playing like the usual Josh. When in fact he’s having statistically one of his best seasons. If he continues on the pace he has for the last few games he will surpass his yards in a season. And total touchdowns in a season. And come within 5 passing touchdowns of his highest. The argument that he is somehow not playing as good as he has in the past is just not accurate. But people are obsessed with the turnover stat as to why he isn’t having as good of a season, or worthy of the MVP award, and those people are wrong. Josh is more valuable to this team than any other player on any team in the league. His % of being responsible for scoring plays is like double digits higher than anyone else in the league. 

[Warriorspikes51]

4-5 TD's and 400 yards against Dallas can put him up there will Purdy, Dak and Hurts

[Rew]

At this point in the season I'd put it as Dak's to lose.  Purdy, Hill, CmC, Hurts, and Josh as distant #2. 

 

For Dak not to get it, the boys would have to go 1-3, he'd have to end with more than 10 turnovers, and put up pretty bad numbers over the next 4 weeks.

 

CMC only gets it if Purdy craps it up and the niners keep winning.  Purdy only gets it if CmC becomes injured this week and the niners keep winning with him out.  Hill only gets it if he fights through injury, gets to 2K, and Miami gets to 12 wins.  Allen only gets it if the bills win out, he has 3 no turnover games (out of next 4), and he maintains more than 5 total td lead.

 

Allen and Dak in the same game late in primetime is really going to stick in voter's minds.  I know its a season award, but this week probably means the most for Allen's MVP chances of any remaining individual game.

 

The kicker is if Dak falls apart and none of these strong backup candidates close it out you have Lamar with a quietly decent individual performance backed by stellar team performance.  I don't think Lamar is going to have to numbers to win it unless all of the above have a poor last 4 games.

[Airseven]

I was shocked to see Purdy leads the league in TDs. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I was shocked to see Purdy leads the league in TDs. 

 

That would be shocking because JA leads the league in TD's. 

[Aussie Joe]

What about Cook ?

[Billsfanatic8989]

Purdy will win MVP imo. They've got Washington left. Rams should be a win. 

 

Cowboys still have Miami & Detroit left. 

 

Only MVP I care about Allen winning is SB MVP.

[transplantbillsfan]

James Cook was clearly the MVP vs the Cowboys, and we should all be unbelievably excited about what this offense can be moving forward with that.

 

Josh had less than 120 total yards, but that was all we needed. No turnovers. Some typical Josh plays putting the team on his back both with his arm and his legs.

 

Plus more notable drops by Kincaid, Diggs, and Cook... but we forgive you Jimbo.

 

All against one of the 2 favorites for MVP, who threw his 1st Interception in several games with at least 3 more easy ones dropped.

 

51 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I was shocked to see Purdy leads the league in TDs. 

 

Uhhhhh... no he doesn't 

32 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Purdy will win MVP imo. They've got Washington left. Rams should be a win. 

 

Cowboys still have Miami & Detroit left. 

 

Only MVP I care about Allen winning is SB MVP.

 

Predictively I think Purdy wins it.

 

I'm sorry... I just don't think he should if Josh or even Dak are close. Any team with 2 MVP candidates should devalue each other in some way. And for all those "Tyreek is MVP!!!" advocates, maybe Mostert devalues him in that same way.

[Warcodered]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

James Cook was clearly the MVP vs the Cowboys, and we should all be unbelievably excited about what this offense can be moving forward with that.

 

Josh had less than 120 total yards, but that was all we needed. No turnovers. Some typical Josh plays putting the team on his back both with his arm and his legs.

 

Plus more notable drops by Kincaid, Diggs, and Cook... but we forgive you Jimbo.

 

All against one of the 2 favorites for MVP, who threw his 1st Interception in several games with at least 3 more easy ones dropped.

 

 

Uhhhhh... no he doesn't 

 

Predictively I think Purdy wins it.

 

I'm sorry... I just don't think he should if Josh or even Dak are close. Any team with 2 MVP candidates should devalue each other in some way. And for all those "Tyreek is MVP!!!" advocates, maybe Mostert devalues him in that same way.

 

[ChrisWatson#21]

On 12/15/2023 at 10:15 AM, Since1981 said:

Unless third seed, MVP won’t happen. 1973 OJ MVP didn’t make playoffs—that can’t happen with ethos of MVP in 2023
 

I would argue the system is rigged in that Josh, Patty, Hill are 3 most important players “MIP” holding their teams together—-> as true team MVPs. But that’s not what NFL MVP is anymore. 

We all know how blessed we are to have him.  Who cares if the outsiders give him props or not.  It is a privilege it is to watch him play for our beloved Bills.  

[Punch]

Josh made some terrific plays and no real mistakes but he wasn't really needed much in this absolute ass whooping of the Cowboys. 

 

A strong finish and the AFC East crown will really move the needle (and deservedly so) but failing a total meltdown, it's Purdy's to lose. He's been good regardless of how much help he gets from the surrounding roster, it's the nature of the Award in recent memory. Josh's rushing stats will (unfortunately) never get appropriate consideration.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Punch

[Big Blitz]

Realistic order as of today: 

 

Hill 

CMC

Purdy 

Lamar

Hurts

Allen 

Trent Williams

 

 

The Dolphins know Hill will be back so the belief is still there.  Helps to play Zach Wilson at home.  They put it on their D today to win and they did.  
 

No non QB means more to their team and impacts the game like Hill.  

 

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Realistic order as of today: 

 

Hill 

CMC

Purdy 

Lamar

Hurts

Allen 

Trent Williams

 

 

The Dolphins know Hill will be back so the belief is still there.  Helps to play Zach Wilson at home.  They put it on their D today to win and they did.  
 

No non QB means more to their team and impacts the game like Hill.  

 

The Dolphins just dropped 30 on the Jets defense without Hill. Lamar was okay nothing really great or anything 1 TD 1 turnover nothing great as a passer did very well running like he does. He very well might run into a buzzsaw next week against the 49ers and vice versa with Purdy and CMC since the Ravens do have a defense, but I'd still take the 49ers in that. Then you're still left with CMC and Purdy splitting the difference.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

James Cook was clearly the MVP vs the Cowboys, and we should all be unbelievably excited about what this offense can be moving forward with that.

 

Josh had less than 120 total yards, but that was all we needed. No turnovers. Some typical Josh plays putting the team on his back both with his arm and his legs.

 

Plus more notable drops by Kincaid, Diggs, and Cook... but we forgive you Jimbo.

 

All against one of the 2 favorites for MVP, who threw his 1st Interception in several games with at least 3 more easy ones dropped.

 

 

Uhhhhh... no he doesn't 

 

Predictively I think Purdy wins it.

 

I'm sorry... I just don't think he should if Josh or even Dak are close. Any team with 2 MVP candidates should devalue each other in some way. And for all those "Tyreek is MVP!!!" advocates, maybe Mostert devalues him in that same way.

Josh got robbed of a third td but that’s pretty tough to get upset about 😂 

His best shot is a strong finish for the team with little to no turnovers and just out touchdowning everyone else by a big margin lol

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Two man race now- Hill and CMC

[Punch]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Two man race now- Hill and CMC

That's not even remotely reflected in Vegas' odds, whether or not it's deserved. Personally, I agree that Hill and McCaffrey should be top 3-5 in consideration.

[Process]

10 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Two man race now- Hill and CMC

Two man race for what? If you are talking about actually winning MVP they are not even in contention. 

[Warcodered]

 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Realistic order as of today: 

 

Hill 

CMC

Purdy 

Lamar

Hurts

Allen 

Trent Williams

 

 

The Dolphins know Hill will be back so the belief is still there.  Helps to play Zach Wilson at home.  They put it on their D today to win and they did.  
 

No non QB means more to their team and impacts the game like Hill.  

 

 

What a troll job.

 

No... just no...

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

That would be shocking because JA leads the league in TD's. 

He is leading in Passing TDs with 29.  Allen has 26. 

 

Allen leads the league in total TDs

[DapperCam]

Purdy is going to win it even though he throws TDs to wide open receivers. Today CMC was so wide open on one of his TDs he fell down, got back up, stumbled for 10+ yards and still scored untouched.

 

It will be a very underwhelming MVP.

[Warcodered]

4 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Purdy is going to win it even though he throws TDs to wide open receivers. Today CMC was so wide open on one of his TDs he fell down, got back up, stumbled for 10+ yards and still scored untouched.

 

It will be a very underwhelming MVP.

Did he at least have the decency to look embarrassed?

[Son of a K-Gun]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Realistic order as of today: 

 

Hill 

CMC

Purdy 

Lamar

Hurts

Allen 

Trent Williams

 

 

The Dolphins know Hill will be back so the belief is still there.  Helps to play Zach Wilson at home.  They put it on their D today to win and they did.  
 

No non QB means more to their team and impacts the game like Hill.  

 

 

"Realistic".  Proceeds to list an offensive lineman.

 

[zow2]

Ironically,  Allen's "lowkey" day in a blowout vs Dallas cost me my Fantasy playoff game.  Go figure?  But it's all good.  The Bills wins over KC and Dallas were grind it out wins.  There wasn't much flash in the passing game and there didn't need to be.  Run well, move the chains w short passes, play solid D and don't turn it over.  That's the recipe. 

[UKBillFan]

To be blunt, if the Pro-Bow was selected today then the three AFC QBs would be Jackson, Tua and Mahomes. Josh may get the reserve spot, though Stroud be awarded that instead.

 

If he isn't in the top three AFC QBs he won't be in the MVP conversation. And if the Bills change their style to implement more of a run game then that could affect his chances sooner. But winning is the priority, though Josh has the ability to drag himself into contention.

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Purdy is going to win it even though he throws TDs to wide open receivers. Today CMC was so wide open on one of his TDs he fell down, got back up, stumbled for 10+ yards and still scored untouched.

 

It will be a very underwhelming MVP.

 

He is #1 in passing TDs, rating, QBR, TD%, YPA, YPC--despite being 21st in pass attempts.

 

The play you reference, he threw on the run, under pressure. 

 

your take is...... underwhelming.

[FireChans]

Purdy would have falter tremendously to lose out on MVP at this point.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He is #1 in passing TDs, rating, QBR, TD%, YPA, YPC--despite being 21st in pass attempts.

 

 

saying he’s only 21st in pass attempts doesn’t make those numbers look better besides total passing touchdowns.

 

those are all statistical categories where the more you are asked to throw the greater odds your averages will go down.

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Purdy would have falter tremendously to lose out on MVP at this point.

in my opinion, he is deserving of the MVP, but there are a few factors playing against him. CMC could legitimately end the season as a top three MVP vote-getter.

 

The head to head this week between Purdy and Lamar will be huge. I maintain that Lamar statistically just isn’t worthy of an MVP this year, but I’m probably in the minority of that opinion. Vegas seems to think he is worthy.

 

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

saying he’s only 21st in pass attempts doesn’t make those numbers look better besides total passing touchdowns.

 

those are all statistical categories where the more you are asked to throw the greater odds your averages will go down.

in my opinion, he is deserving of the MVP, but there are a few factors playing against him. CMC could legitimately end the season as a top three MVP vote-getter.

 

The head to head this week between Purdy and Lamar will be huge. I maintain that Lamar statistically just isn’t worthy of an MVP this year, but I’m probably in the minority of that opinion. Vegas seems to think he is worthy.

 

 

CMC could steal votes for sure.

 

I think there's something to be said about "if you have two MVP candidates, you don't have one" but at this point, Purdy is the most consistent QB in the NFL with the best numbers and a great team with a great record. And as good Shanny is offensively, they still gave that MVP to Matt Ryan who had Shanny and a boat load of offensive talent as well.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

saying he’s only 21st in pass attempts doesn’t make those numbers look better besides total passing touchdowns.

 

those are all statistical categories where the more you are asked to throw the greater odds your averages will go down.

 

you mean "and passing yards", right?

 

anyway, in the last 8 games (i.e. as he threw more as the year goes on), his completion % is up to 72%, he has 4 games over 300 yards, 19 TDs, and his YPA has gone up to 10.9--all while still averaging 27 attempts per game.   i.e. as the season goes on, he's getting even better.

[DapperCam]

22 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He is #1 in passing TDs, rating, QBR, TD%, YPA, YPC--despite being 21st in pass attempts.

 

The play you reference, he threw on the run, under pressure. 

 

your take is...... underwhelming.

Big whoop. He is in a hugely favorable circumstance. 3/4 of his TDs yesterday were to college wide open players.

 

I think he will probably win because he will lead in a bunch of statistical categories and his team will be the #1 seed. Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Mahomes all do a lot more for their teams in terms of being the difference between wins and losses.

 

It will be interesting to see what SF does when it comes to contract time for Purdy. They can’t give him the same contract as the other top QBs or they will go downhill fast.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

you mean "and passing yards", right?

 

anyway, in the last 8 games (i.e. as he threw more as the year goes on), his completion % is up to 72%, he has 4 games over 300 yards, 19 TDs, and his YPA has gone up to 10.9--all while still averaging 27 attempts per game.   i.e. as the season goes on, he's getting even better.

Correct I probably didn’t notice you mentioned passing yards as well, but obviously all the average ones would go down. And the totals are good if you’re lower in attempts. That’s just the point I’m making.

 

it’s far more likely he would not be leading the league in QBR if he was top five in attempts. That said the team around him is great, so maybe he still would be.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

Big whoop. He is in a hugely favorable circumstance. 3/4 of his TDs yesterday were to college wide open players.

 

I think he will probably win because he will lead in a bunch of statistical categories and his team will be the #1 seed. Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Mahomes all do a lot more for their teams in terms of being the difference between wins and losses.

 

It will be interesting to see what SF does when it comes to contract time for Purdy. They can’t give him the same contract as the other top QBs or they will go downhill fast.

 

 

name another MVP candidate knocked for passing to wide open receivers---nice take!  what about his other 26 TDs? 

 

Not if you include scoring. Lamar Jackson has 17 passing TDs and 5 rushing (they have 18 other rushing TDs as a team). Josh Allen has 11 rushing TDs.

 

they have a few years before they have to pay Purdy.  But he shouldn't get what "other QBs" like Danny Jones or Russ Wilson or Kyler Murray, or Watson, or even Herbert get?  He's better than any of them right now.  

[DapperCam]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

name another MVP candidate knocked for passing to wide open receivers---nice take!  what about his other 26 TDs? 

 

Not if you include scoring. Lamar Jackson has 17 passing TDs and 5 rushing (they have 18 other rushing TDs as a team). Josh Allen has 11 rushing TDs.

 

they have a few years before they have to pay Purdy.  But he shouldn't get what "other QBs" like Danny Jones or Russ Wilson or Kyler Murray, or Watson, or even Herbert get?  He's better than any of them right now.  

I would love to see Purdy in that Giants offense. He would have the same or worse stats than Daniel Jones. The offensive line is a sieve and they have no pass catchers. That is exactly my point.

 

I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve MVP, because he will have the production for it. I’m just saying he is underwhelming compared to past MVP winners IMO.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

I would love to see Purdy in that Giants offense. He would have the same or worse stats than Daniel Jones. The offensive line is a sieve and they have no pass catchers. That is exactly my point.

 

I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve MVP, because he will have the production for it. I’m just saying he is underwhelming compared to past MVP winners IMO.

 

put any QB on the Giants, they would stink...what's your point?  you think Allen would be in the hunt for MVP on that mess of an Offense?

 

 

 

 

[prissythecat]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-mvp-odds-49ers-brock-purdy-takes-lead-in-tight-race-says-christian-mccaffrey-should-win-award/

 

 

PLAYER                   MVP ODDS

QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers -225

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys +500

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens +500

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers +1000

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills +1100

 

 

 

 

Unless Brock Purdy totally tanks,   there isn't really any question of him winning.   Josh is an afterthought in this year's race unfortunately.

[Warcodered]

Man you watch the number of turnovers the refs took away in the Chiefs-Patriots game and is Allen really leading the league in turnovers or is he leading the league in turnovers because they won't let Mahomes do it.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Man you watch the number of turnovers the refs took away in the Chiefs-Patriots game and is Allen really leading the league in turnovers or is he leading the league in turnovers because they won't let Mahomes do it.

That and defenders just can’t catch a tua interception that hits them right in the gut lol tua threw another gift wrapped pick six that was dropped yesterday 

 

Lawrence is doing his best to catch up in turnovers too…there’s like 12 players within a couple turnovers of Josh and Dobbs is still tied with him despite playing one less game 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan