Has Miami really closed the gap?

[Dr.Sack]

Lou certainly has the experience to improve Miami’s defense regardless of Ramsey’s status, but the number 1 thing that separates these teams is QB. Tua has not proven he can survive a full season. Miami has had a good offseason, but they have tinkered around the edges compared to 2022.
 

Looking at offensive personnel the addition of Hardy and Shurfield are an upgrade over McKenzie/Crowder/Beasley. The RBs we brought in are perfect for RZ finishing. Then there’s Kincaid who could be dynamite in the RZ and 3rd down. 
 

On defense the offseason additions of Poona, Rapp, Floyd, retaining Poyer, return of Hyde & Von are huge. Couple that with Rousseau being a year older, White being 18 post ACL and rounding back to top form.
 

The X-Factor is McDermott now running the show on D. The Bills on paper have a head coach who has proven he can match the top offenses in the NFL with an All-Pro MLB. Certainly he doesn’t have Luke Kuechly, so we will need to see how our defensive philosophy changes from Frazier.

[Scott7975]

On 7/28/2023 at 9:21 PM, GunnerBill said:

No. In fact I think the 9-8 record last year flattered them. Of their 9 wins, 6 were by one score. I think their OL is bad. Tua even when healthy has limitations. I think they have a soft centre on defense. Their linebackers couldn't cover a book. And that is before the star defensive acquisition goes down at the start of camp. 

 

Equally their offense slowed down the 2nd half of last season as people got tape on how McDaniel was using their players. I know everyone will say "ah yea, but that's cos Tua was out. But his first seven games (excluding the one he left early concussed and did not return) the Dolphins averaged over 29 points. The final four games Tua started they averaged only just over 20. 

 

I expect Fangio will make the defense slightly better, the offense will be slightly worse. They will go 8-9 or 9-8. They will not be a playoff team.

 

This pretty much says how I feel.  I don't think they will be as good as even last year. The book is out on the Dolphins offense and Tua is decent but limited.  Josh just clean up the turnovers and The Bills will be fine.  The Jets have probably closed the gap more than Miami has and I'm not worried about them either.  Certainly I am not worried about the clown show Pats.  They won't be good until Belichick is gone and they blow the thing up and rebuild.

[Coffeesforclosers]

Nope. They haven't. 

 

But they want a participation trophy for trying real hard. 

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

Nope. They haven't. 

 

But they want a participation trophy for trying real hard. 

 

You don't think so at all? I'd say compared to previous years they most certainly have

[Ya Digg?]

40 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Miami has one of the best rosters in the NFL. Mike Grier’s brother has done a great job. They might have a top 5 coaching staff. But Tuan’s health is a huge question mark. 
 

so I would I be shocked if Miami is a big time contender this year and has a better record than us?  Not really. But Miami teams are soft and will fade late in the season. I cannot picture a scenario where that team wins a cold weather game. 

Not calling you out specifically but someone needs to explain this line of thinking. What about their coaching staff puts them in such high regard? This is the same coaching staff that put Tua back out on the field when he clearly had a concussion then had him play 3 days later and he got destroyed! That alone to me makes them not even in the top half of coaching staffs.

The same thing was said here repeatedly about Flores and his staff too and I just don’t get it. Perhaps it’s just the Bills homer in me but I don’t get the love the dolphins coaching staffs have gotten over the last couple of years 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Ya Digg?

[Billl]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

It means I answered your question.  Simple as that

 

 

You'd never know I answered it if from your response.  And dude, seriously - this is a message board.  People can respond to your post specifically or to any part of your post specifically.  We are not limited to the premise of the topic, or to the entirely of your post, or the point you feel we should discuss.  It's frustrating sometimes, when I make a nice post and people pick out one little bit to respond to - but that's Life on a Message Board.

 

 

Dude, seriously?  You need this answered?

 

Briefly, the Dolphins W-L record, the quality of their offense and defense as shown by league ranking, and their single playoff appearance and loss, are not on the same par as the Bills.  Yet.  Meanwhile, the Bills W-L record, the quality of their offense and defense as shown by league ranking, and their playoff appearances and wins, along with their two regular season victories and the "13 seconds" very close Divisional game in 2021, are thought by most football-knowledgeable people to put them in the same conversation as the Chiefs.  Equal, no, in the same convo, yes.

 

The Dolphins, for the past four seasons, are 5-11, 10-6, 9-8, 9-8.  They've been to one playoff game, and lost it.  We're in their division, we play twice a season, they know us well and play us hard, especially when we have to go to Miami early in the season where they par-broil their opponents.  They have a new coach, maybe they're like the 2019 Bills and they're on the rise and will take the league by storm this season.  Maybe Vic Fangio will have their defense Rockin' and Rollin.  But until they show that, the idea that they're in the same conversation as the Bills rates Not Proven. 

 

The analogous thing would be if someone asked a KC fan, Why aren't the Chargers spoken about in the same breath as the Chiefs?  In 2020 and 2021, they've beaten you. They were 10-7 last season, were within 3 points of beating the Chiefs and could have beaten you both games, went to the playoffs where they could have won (within 1 point).  They could be a team on the rise.  But until they show they are, they're not talked about in the same breath as the Chiefs because they haven't, overall, yet, shown that they deserve to be. 

 

Maybe stop trying to square circles?

 

So when you compare the Dolphins to the Bills you talk about their record 4 years ago and postseason success while omitting just how close the wildcard game was.  When you compare the Bills to the Chiefs, you chose to talk about regular season games over the past 2 seasons and emphasize how close the divisional game was.

 

Why do the metrics change?  Why did you only talk about 2 years of head to head matchups between the Chiefs and bills instead of 4?  Why don’t you compare postseason success when comparing the Chiefs to the Bills like you did when comparing the Dolphins to the Bills?

 

I’ll tell you why you didn’t.  It’s because the Chiefs blew out the Bills twice in 2020.  It’s because the Chiefs are 10-2 in the playoffs during that stretch while the Bills are 4-4.  It’s because any argument for saying that the Dolphins don’t belong in the same conversation as the Bills is true regarding the Bills and Chiefs.

 

The comparison of the Chargers to the Chiefs is in no way analogous.  The Chiefs have been in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls.  They’ve hosted 5 straight AFC Championship games and have won multiple titles. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Billl

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, Billl said:

So when you compare the Dolphins to the Bills you talk about their record 4 years ago and postseason success while omitting just how close the wildcard game was.  When you compare the Bills to the Chiefs, you chose to talk about regular season games over the past 2 seasons and emphasize how close the divisional game was.

 

Why do the metrics change?  Why did you only talk about 2 years of head to head matchups between the Chiefs and bills instead of 4?  Why don’t you compare postseason success when comparing the Chiefs to the Bills like you did when comparing the Dolphins to the Bills?

 

I’ll tell you why you didn’t.  It’s because the Chiefs blew out the Bills twice in 2020.  It’s because the Chiefs are 10-2 in the playoffs during that stretch while the Bills are 4-4.  It’s because any argument for saying that the Dolphins don’t belong in the same conversation as the Bills is true regarding the Bills and Chiefs.

 

Refer back to the Vegas odds for a reality check. It’s not everything, but it’s an important thing. 

[Billl]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Refer back to the Vegas odds for a reality check. It’s not everything, but it’s an important thing. 

Vegas win totals put the Chiefs at 11.5, Bills at 10.5, and the Dolphins at 9.5.

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Yeah I think Salah is overrated personally. They jumped from 32 to 4 on defense and everyone just expects them to keep rolling with that? History suggests they will regress to the mean a bit 

 

I think the addition of Rodgers can change the Jets' narrative.  Forty-year-old Rodgers still tops Tua, especially since Tua, even healthy, has never been mistaken for an elite QB.    Rodgers could crash and burn in the Big Apple as Russell Wilson did in Denver, but at this point, he makes the Jets the Bills closest challenger.

 

 

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

The Bills match up just fine with the Bengals when we have our full complement of defensive players.

 

 

I saw a take on the Bills-Bengals playoff game last month or so by somebody on TV (maybe on GMFB) that suggested that the Bills hit a mental/emotional wall in the Bengals playoff game because they had been through so much as a team toward the end of the season that they were literally "running on empty" by the time they got to the playoffs.   They certainly played "flat" in the Bengals game, and that mental and emotional fatigue might have been the reason.

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

Vegas win totals put the Chiefs at 11.5, Bills at 10.5, and the Dolphins at 9.5.

Those could be about right. Who has the team to advance? Time will tell. 

 

For the record, I think they are a bit low. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

The Bills match up just fine with the Bengals when we have our full complement of defensive players.

 

perhaps. But that’s only one side of the ball. And even then I still like our defense to handle the Chiefs more than the bengals.

[Coffeesforclosers]

2 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

You don't think so at all? I'd say compared to previous years they most certainly have

 

Nope. They play us tough, then find a way to lose. Which is fine.

 

Nobody cares how many games you almost win. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Not calling you out specifically but someone needs to explain this line of thinking. What about their coaching staff puts them in such high regard? This is the same coaching staff that put Tua back out on the field when he clearly had a concussion then had him play 3 days later and he got destroyed! That alone to me makes them not even in the top half of coaching staffs.

The same thing was said here repeatedly about Flores and his staff too and I just don’t get it. Perhaps it’s just the Bills homer in me but I don’t get the love the dolphins coaching staffs have gotten over the last couple of years 

I would do bad things to have that nerd calling plays for Allen. Allen would be a monster with McDaniel. Add to that they added a guy who is widely respected as one of the best DCs in football? Easily top 5 on paper. Now whether it works on the field is a much different story. 

[snamsnoops]

59 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I would do bad things to have that nerd calling plays for Allen. Allen would be a monster with McDaniel. Add to that they added a guy who is widely respected as one of the best DCs in football? Easily top 5 on paper. Now whether it works on the field is a much different story. 

What kinda things would you do?! LOL

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Vegas win totals put the Chiefs at 11.5, Bills at 10.5, and the Dolphins at 9.5.

Easy way to solve this

 

Oct1 I'll take the Bills you take the fish for as much as you want 

 

Ask @Zerovoltzabout it 

[Drew21PA]

On 7/31/2023 at 8:49 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

Not an attack and just curious here...but do you feel the same way when it comes to Mitch Morse?

I do actuallly

 

i felt he should have hung it up last year 

[Zerovoltz]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Easy way to solve this

 

Oct1 I'll take the Bills you take the fish for as much as you want 

 

Ask @Zerovoltzabout it 

I can vouch for 808.  He is a man of his word.  Paid me on bet I won a while back.

[JerseyBills]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Easy way to solve this

 

Oct1 I'll take the Bills you take the fish for as much as you want 

 

Ask @Zerovoltzabout it 

I'll match up to 1k on that bet for the Bills 

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

I do actuallly

 

i felt he should have hung it up last year 

I think the Bills playing Torrence at RG and Bates at C on the second team is a sign of things to come. Or at least a sign of where they’d like things to go. Maybe not this season, but quite possibly next. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by BarleyNY

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I think the Bills playing Torrence at RG and Bates at C on the second team is a sign of things to come. Or at least a sign of where they’d like things to go. Maybe not this season, but quite possibly next. 

 

They had that combination on the first team one day when Morse was out. 

[eball]

11 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I saw a take on the Bills-Bengals playoff game last month or so by somebody on TV (maybe on GMFB) that suggested that the Bills hit a mental/emotional wall in the Bengals playoff game because they had been through so much as a team toward the end of the season that they were literally "running on empty" by the time they got to the playoffs.   They certainly played "flat" in the Bengals game, and that mental and emotional fatigue might have been the reason.

 

Several of us around here — I know I was one — brought up this point immediately after that game.  The Bills were a team that was beaten down physically and emotionally.  I don’t recall a season in which a team faced so many challenges throughout the course of the year.  My hope is that working through all of that has now made them even stronger and more resilient, and they have a huge chip on their shoulders.

 

 

[Lane Meyer K12]

Yes, they are a formidable opponent and are capable of beating the Bills. Last season all three games were highly competitive, it would be foolish to not observe that Miami has gotten considerably better as of late.

That being said, squish the fish! 

[Gregg]

6 minutes ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Yes, they are a formidable opponent and are capable of beating the Bills. Last season all three games were highly competitive, it would be foolish to not observe that Miami has gotten considerably better as of late.

That being said, squish the fish! 

 

Two out of those three games shouldn't have been competitive. The Bills were going up and down the field in the 1st game but just couldn't finish drives. In the playoff game it was the turnovers and sloppy play that allowed Miami to hang around. To the Dolphins credit they did. That playoff game was looking like a blowout for the first 20 minutes of the game. I am more concerned about the Jets. Rodgers may not be in his prime, but he is still a very good QB. The Jets defense is also really good.

[Doc]

25 minutes ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Yes, they are a formidable opponent and are capable of beating the Bills. Last season all three games were highly competitive, it would be foolish to not observe that Miami has gotten considerably better as of late.

That being said, squish the fish! 

 

So have the Bills.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

So have the Bills.

 

 

The Bills have been really good for 4 seasons now. There hasn't been much room if any to get "considerably better as of late".  While Miami has been able to compete with the Bills just recently. Unless "late" is a comparison going back to the Pre-Allen Bills, I would not say the Bills have gotten considerably better since say 2020 or 2021. 

 

Miami's offense is explosive. Can give any team trouble when they are on. Their defense appears to not be all that good. At least not at slowing down the Bills offense. 

 

[Gregg]

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

The Bills have been really good for 4 seasons now. There hasn't been much room if any to get "considerably better as of late".  While Miami has been able to compete with the Bills just recently. Unless "late" is a comparison going back to the Pre-Allen Bills, I would not say the Bills have gotten considerably better since say 2020 or 2021. 

 

Miami's offense is explosive. Can give any team trouble when they are on. Their defense appears to not be all that good. At least not at slowing down the Bills offense. 

 

 

Do you think Tua can stay healthy all year. I would say probably not. Mike White is a serviceable back-up QB but if he has to be "the guy" if Tua misses a significant amount of time then the Dolphins are in trouble.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

6 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I'll match up to 1k on that bet for the Bills 

HOUSE and I are both in for a buck for the Bills...HOUSE, cover for me until I see you? (Yes, it's a U.S. dollar I'm in for...)

[Lane Meyer K12]

5 hours ago, Doc said:

 

So have the Bills.

Possibly, on paper.

No games have been played yet. 

Judging by the games played last year and years previous, Miami has closed the gap. 

That is really all anyone can logically go on until the games are played this year. 

[starrymessenger]

5 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Do you think Tua can stay healthy all year. I would say probably not. Mike White is a serviceable back-up QB but if he has to be "the guy" if Tua misses a significant amount of time then the Dolphins are in trouble.

Nothing personal (seems like an ok guy) but I have little faith in Tua. I doubt that he stays healthy enuf to play a full season. And while he has weapons I don't think he can consistently make the best use of them. Just not on the same level as his supporting cast. I think he's accident prone both physically and as a playmaker. Imo both the Jets and the Finns are at far greater risk of having their seasons implode than the Bills.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Possibly, on paper.

No games have been played yet. 

Judging by the games played last year and years previous, Miami has closed the gap. 

That is really all anyone can logically go on until the games are played this year. 

 

Why would you say since no games have been played, we must logically say Miami has closed the gap? That’s not logical at all. If we are judging by last year, the Bills won 2 of 3, and the third was a farce in an oven.  (The NFL still needs to address the inequity of that stadium situation.) The Bills owned all he stats and finished with a TE playing OLine with a torn ACL due to attrition from the heat. I can’t take much from that game. The playoff game was close only because the Bills shot themselves in the foot. Repeatedly. And still won. I suppose that game was a sign of things to come. Can’t play terrible six quarters in a row in the playoffs. 

 

If we need to see games played to judge anything, then the gap should be the same. If we are going by what has happened on paper, maybe the gap is closed, or maybe it’s become wider, depending upon your viewpoint. Or maybe it has in fact remained the same. 

 

If we want to be as objective as possible, I go back to the Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl. Vegas and the gambling world has the Bills somewhat behind KC (fair enough) with Miami significantly behind the Bills. They don’t have a dog in the fight. 

 

The Dolphins are a legit team and a threat every week. I’m not trashing them, though I don’t trust Tua to hold up over a season. Anyone can be hurt, but he’s been like a China doll in college and so far in the pros. If you want to go back and look at Super Bowl odds from LAST year, maybe they have closed the gap from last year, but they are still a good bit behind as we sit today as judged by those with no rooting interest. 

 

 

.

Edited August 3, 2023 by Augie

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Nothing personal (seems like an ok guy) but I have little faith in Tua. I doubt that he stays healthy enuf to play a full season. And while he has weapons I don't think he can consistently make the best use of them. Just not on the same level as his supporting cast. I think he's accident prone both physically and as a playmaker. Imo both the Jets and the Finns are at far greater risk of having their seasons implode than the Bills.

 

I think the Jets are legit, but I hope you are right about them. 

[Billl]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Easy way to solve this

 

Oct1 I'll take the Bills you take the fish for as much as you want 

 

Ask @Zerovoltzabout it 

What's to solve?  Here's the statement in the OP that I responded to originally:

 

"Yes, they have a decent team on paper but what have they proven? Constantly being mentioned in the same breath as KC, Cincinnati and Buffalo."

 

To that, I say that Buffalo hasn't proven that they should be mentioned alongside Cincinnati and Kansas City then.  Miami has proven they can beat Buffalo in the regular season just as Buffalo has proven they can beat Kansas City in the regular season.  Neither Miami nor Buffalo have done squat in the postseason.  

 

Unless you consider having lower Super Bowl odds to be some sort of accomplishment, then the Bills haven't proven they belong in the conversation with the Chiefs any more than Miami has proven they belong in the conversation with the Bills.  It's really not any more complicated than that.

Edited August 3, 2023 by Billl

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

What's to solve?  Here's the statement in the OP that I responded to originally:

 

"Yes, they have a decent team on paper but what have they proven? Constantly being mentioned in the same breath as KC, Cincinnati and Buffalo."

 

To that, I say that Buffalo hasn't proven that they should be mentioned alongside Cincinnati and Kansas City then.  Miami has proven they can beat Buffalo in the regular season just as Buffalo has proven they can beat Kansas City in the regular season.  Neither Miami nor Buffalo have done squat in the postseason.  

 

Unless you consider having lower Super Bowl odds to be some sort of accomplishment, then the Bills haven't proven they belong in the conversation with the Chiefs any more than Miami has proven they belong in the conversation with the Bills.  It's really not any more complicated than that.

Like I said very easy to put your $$ where your mouth is if you think Dolphins are close to Bills

 

I'm game for betting the Bills Chiefs game also

 

If you think the gap between these teams aligns w your thinking let's put some skin in the game

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

I think the Jets are legit, but I hope you are right about them. 

Sure. AR is an all time great. Tua is more likely a marginal bit player by comparison. But as others have noted it will be interesting to see how a 39 year old Aaron makes out behind that O-line. 

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The Bills have been really good for 4 seasons now. There hasn't been much room if any to get "considerably better as of late".  While Miami has been able to compete with the Bills just recently. Unless "late" is a comparison going back to the Pre-Allen Bills, I would not say the Bills have gotten considerably better since say 2020 or 2021. 

 

Miami's offense is explosive. Can give any team trouble when they are on. Their defense appears to not be all that good. At least not at slowing down the Bills offense.

3 hours ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Possibly, on paper.

No games have been played yet. 

Judging by the games played last year and years previous, Miami has closed the gap. 

That is really all anyone can logically go on until the games are played this year. 

 

It's the same paper.  Miami has to prove they've closed the gap.  It's not like the Bills did nothing over the off-season.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Do you think Tua can stay healthy all year. I would say probably not. Mike White is a serviceable back-up QB but if he has to be "the guy" if Tua misses a significant amount of time then the Dolphins are in trouble.

 

I could be mistaken, I often am...but I think Mike White may look better when throwing to Waddle and Hill in the Dolphins offense than he did passing to Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin in Mike LaFleur's offense.

 

4 hours ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

Judging by the games played last year and years previous, Miami has closed the gap. 

That is really all anyone can logically go on until the games are played this year. 

 

How have they "closed the gap" judging by games played last year?  Their record was 9-8.  5 straight losses, including 4 with Tua.

Edited August 3, 2023 by Beck Water

[HaldimandBills]

Miami might have closed the gap although their oline is worse than ours and their entire offseason seemed to be Ramsey and Fangio. One is gone. Will see what steps the offense takes in year two. I still say the Media was always hype large market teams and New York and Miami are two large markets.

 

I personally think people are sleeping on the Patriots. That defense is the best in the division and will have competent coaching this season on the offensive side of the ball. Mac Jones just had to throw for 250 yards again and limit turnovers and that team is winning 10 games. 

 

One of New York or Miami is flaming out. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Do you think Tua can stay healthy all year. 

of course not. 

[Zerovoltz]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Like I said very easy to put your $$ where your mouth is if you think Dolphins are close to Bills

 

I'm game for betting the Bills Chiefs game also

 

If you think the gap between these teams aligns w your thinking let's put some skin in the game

Hey 808....I didn't see this whole thread, but I do see you might be looking for some Chiefs/Bills action?  100 bucks again?

[Billl]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Like I said very easy to put your $$ where your mouth is if you think Dolphins are close to Bills

 

I'm game for betting the Bills Chiefs game also

 

If you think the gap between these teams aligns w your thinking let's put some skin in the game

You’re demonstrating my point perfectly.  If the Bills had already proven anything, you wouldn’t have to offer wagers about future games.  You’d point to the trophies.  

 

My disagreement with the OP (and evidently you) is that you seem to think that the Bills have already accomplished something that makes the first of these statements true and the next statement untrue:

 

1.  The Bengals, Bills, and Chiefs all expect to win the Super Bowl.

 

2.  The Dolphins and Bills both expect to win the AFCE.

 

I say both are true.  There’s an argument to be made that neither are true, but there’s no way that one is true and the other is false.  If it’s reasonable to associate the Bills with the Chiefs based on what the teams have proven then it’s reasonable to associate the Dolphins with the Bills based on what the teams have proven.