Draft - Positions of Need - Top Ranked

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

No.

 

BPA is the best way to go. And if the player chosen is BPA but just happens to be at a position that we deem to be a  “need” then it’s BPA “at a position of need.”

 

Otherwise, drafting a player that could be objectively worse than another player just because he’s a “need” is a terrible strategy.

 

Like, awful.

The good news I think it’s gonna lineup for us this year

[Perk71]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

As of 3/17, here's the rookies in the upcoming draft that could go in the first 3 rounds.  This is based off ESPN's rankings (everyone over an 80 grade).  Looks like WR and OT are the positions of depth in the first few rounds.  

 

Also, yes, I will be doing the mock drafts this year.  I plan to start them in about 2 weeks.  

 

RB

Bijan Robinson, Texas 93 

Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama 87

Zach Charbonnet, UCLA 83

Devon Achane, Texas A&M 82

 

WR

Quentin Johnston, TCU 92

Jordan Addison, USC 91

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State 90

Zay Flowers, Boston College 89

Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee 86

Josh Downs, UNC 86

Jayden Reed, Michigan St 84

Kayshon Boutte, LSU 82

 

OT

Peter Skoronski, Northwestern 93

Paris Johnson Jr, Ohio St 92

Broderick Jones, Georgia 89

Darnell Wright, Tennessee 89

Anton Harrison, Oklahoma 88

Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland 87

Cody Mauch, North Dakota St 86 

Dawand Jones, Ohio St 86

 

OG

O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida 87

 

C

John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota 86

Steve Avila, TCU 81

 

MLB

Trenton Simpson, Clemson 86

Drew Sanders, Arkansas 85

Jack Campbell, Iowa 81

 

S

Brian Branch, Alabama 88

Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M 86

Ji'Ayir Brown, Penn St 85

Syndey Brown, Illinois 80

Quentin Johnston, TCU please

Go Bills!!

 

 

[offyourocker]

I don't see Safety as a need right now

[MrEpsYtown]

4 minutes ago, Perk71 said:

Quentin Johnston, TCU please

Go Bills!!

 

 

If he’s there you knock your grandma over to get the podium. 

[Perk71]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

If he’s there you knock your grandma over to get the podium. 

You got that right 🤙🏼

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, mabden said:

I would be tempted to draft TE Darnel Washington with the 27th pick, IF he was there.

Well, I certainly wouldn't be tempted to draft him if he WASN'T there. 

[buffblue]

6 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Nah. Just draft BPA. 
 

 

Yes, let's draft Hendon Hooker when he's available in the the late 2nd

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Except we dont, and no team really does. Especially at 27 (or really outside of the top 10), where it starts getting so washy that who can say who is the better player available.

 

BPA at need is what we'll do. All I can hope is that it is at OL, and not DB or RB.

 

 

The league is just so off of RBs nowadays, even a good one isnt worth the 1st round pick where you can get a 5th year option on a much more important position.

 

 

I hope it's not RB.

 

But for all those who wanted us not to keep Tremaine, congrats on getting what you wanted, but you also got a position of serious need.

 

We are going to have to use some serious resources on MLB at some point. Could be FA, definitely.

 

But it seems very possible we'll also be using one of our first three picks to fill the hole there long term.

 

2 hours ago, Perk71 said:

Quentin Johnston, TCU please

Go Bills!!

 

 

 

 

I wonder how high the Bills rank him.

 

Certainly has freakish speed and size. But the Bills have showed that they want guys who can run routes really well and get separation. And other than with speed, I don't see him doing that.

 

My guess is that the Bills rank him significantly lower than most do. In some systems he's going to be extremely valuable, is my guess. But I wonder how OBD feels. I think they want a guy who can get open at all three levels.

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, offyourocker said:

I don't see Safety as a need right now

 

 

I do. 

 

But not in the first now, probably. 

 

Our safeties are old as Methuselah. We need to be thinking about replacements but also backups. Older guys get injured more.

[gonzo1105]

2 hours ago, offyourocker said:

I don't see Safety as a need right now

 

So you don't see a need when Poyer and Hyde are essentially on 1 year deals in their 30's and their primary backup almost died on the field. Are you kidding? This team needs at least 1 Safety in the top 4 rounds in my opinion.

 

As a side note, this LB class absolutely sucks. You better get Simpson, Campbell, or Sanders because the rest of the crop are either extremely undersized, great athletes who can't play football, or guys who struggle to tackle. This class of LB's is straight garbage

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, skibum said:

I'm sorta joking, but sorta not. I honestly would never rule out a CB at any spot in the first round from McBeane and company.

 

But, my hope this year is that they trade up a bit to draft a higher caliber player at a position of need. Of all the positions they need to fill, there's a good probability that one of them will have a really good prospect slip into the high teens/low twenties. 27 is usually a wee bit too late for that action. 

 

One question I have is: What would the Bills be offering for trade capital to move up? Picks and/or players? It seems like they don't have a lot of players of value that wouldn't sting if they left.  

 

 

My guess is they aren't moving up in the first unless something genuinely bizarre happens, like Van Ness or Jalen Carter or Skoronski or Paris Johnson fall to 23 or near there.

 

Beane values his picks and we've already got too few this year. And anyone on our roster with much trade value would leave yet another hole if traded. 

 

My guess is they trade back if anything. We'll see.

[buffblue]

33 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

My guess is they aren't moving up in the first unless something genuinely bizarre happens, like Van Ness or Jalen Carter or Skoronski or Paris Johnson fall to 23 or near there.

 

Beane values his picks and we've already got too few this year. And anyone on our roster with much trade value would leave yet another hole if traded. 

 

My guess is they trade back if anything. We'll see.

Imo Buffalo should be seriously considering moving down. With limited cap space, numerous needs, and the fact that there are not 27 players worthy of a 1st round grade, accumulating extra picks makes a lot of sense

[John from Riverside]

I want them to pluck out of that offensive tackle group
 

It’s looking more and more like we’re going to pluck out of that linebacker group

[No_Matter_What]

Random question: anybody knows anything about Daiyan Henley, LB from Washington State?

 

I've seen him mocked to us in the first (!) on some local forum, and don't remember ever seeing his name mentioned on TBD before... 

[BrainwashedBillsFan]

Zay flowers will be the pick at 27. BPA and fills a need 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Random question: anybody knows anything about Daiyan Henley, LB from Washington State?

 

I've seen him mocked to us in the first (!) on some local forum, and don't remember ever seeing his name mentioned on TBD before... 

I know enough to say awwwwwwewe hell naaaaaw.

 

good athlete-  has speed and a decent wingspan (for his height) but he’s more of an athletes than LB. Def not an option @ 27.    more like 127, but he looks like a rd 4 guy to me.

[SoCal Deek]

I find it fascinating that with every single college football team having two starting offensive guards, that only one guy is listed as worthy of this list. Does this mean the rest of them stink or does it just show a built in bias for not taking OGs in Round 1? 

[Einstein's Dog]

19 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Except we dont, and no team really does. Especially at 27 (or really outside of the top 10), where it starts getting so washy that who can say who is the better player available.

 

BPA at need is what we'll do. All I can hope is that it is at OL, and not DB or RB.

 

 

The league is just so off of RBs nowadays, even a good one isnt worth the 1st round pick where you can get a 5th year option on a much more important position.

The FO has been drafting BPA at premium position of need.  They have not gone with an RB in the first.  QB, CB, WR, OT - all expensive positions.  People blast the FO routinely for the DL but those are expensive pieces to a roster.  Epenesa, Boogie, and Groot replaced $8M-10M T Murphys/Addisons/Butler types.  Dijon might be able to be used instead of a $3M vet like Fournette or Zeke.

 

To the OP, you need to include DL.  It is a never ending project and if a stud makes it down it has to be considered.  A home grown Von or A Donald is the next best thing to a franchise QB (and we might have one in Groot but you can always use more).  This DL guy could replace Oliver (a $10M hit)

[DrDawkinstein]

14 hours ago, offyourocker said:

I don't see Safety as a need right now

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I do. 

 

But not in the first now, probably. 

 

Our safeties are old as Methuselah. We need to be thinking about replacements but also backups. Older guys get injured more.

 

11 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

So you don't see a need when Poyer and Hyde are essentially on 1 year deals in their 30's and their primary backup almost died on the field. Are you kidding? This team needs at least 1 Safety in the top 4 rounds in my opinion.

 

As a side note, this LB class absolutely sucks. You better get Simpson, Campbell, or Sanders because the rest of the crop are either extremely undersized, great athletes who can't play football, or guys who struggle to tackle. This class of LB's is straight garbage

 

 

I think the level of play we saw from our backup Safeties after being thrust into the starting lineup absolutely makes Safety a position of HIGH need. Especially with what we saw out of Johnson after 4 years in the system. Glad to hear he is a UFA and likely wont be brought back.

 

I could see McBeane say "Well the late round, developmental approach failed. And we only have like 1 more year with our current All-Pro starters. Time to grab Antonio Johnson or Jordan Battle in the 1st or 2nd".

 

 

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

 

 

I think the level of play we saw from our backup Safeties after being thrust into the starting lineup absolutely makes Safety a position of HIGH need. Especially with what we saw out of Johnson after 4 years in the system. Glad to hear he is a UFA and likely wont be brought back.

 

I could see McBeane say "Well the late round, developmental approach failed. And we only have like 1 more year with our current All-Pro starters. Time to grab Antonio Johnson or Jordan Battle in the 1st or 2nd".

 

 

I’ll pass on Antonio Johnson big and slow guys who don’t take the ball away is not a trait system I like. When it comes to Safety and he’s a hybrid. Give me Jartavius Martin from Illinois 

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I do. 

 

But not in the first now, probably. 

 

Our safeties are old as Methuselah. We need to be thinking about replacements but also backups. Older guys get injured more.

 

And it is actually one of the stronger position groups in this uninspiring class. I think they take a shot somewhere mid rounds... 3 through 5...

[Yantha]

Personally I've got Jack Campbell flying up my big board and could see the Bills trading down and selecting him to start at MLB. 

 

Would depend on how the board fell.  For example, if OG O'Cyrus Torrence is off the board.

 

I think a trade down is looking plausible if there are partners.  Would be nice to have two second rounders in this draft to select, for example, 

-  Jack Campbell, MLB

-  Steve Avila, OG

...just adjusting to the lack of FA action around MLB.....

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Yantha said:

Personally I've got Jack Campbell flying up my big board and could see the Bills trading down and selecting him to start at MLB. 

 

Would depend on how the board fell.  For example, if OG O'Cyrus Torrence is off the board.

 

I think a trade down is looking plausible if there are partners.  Would be nice to have two second rounders in this draft to select, for example, 

-  Jack Campbell, MLB

-  Steve Avila, OG

...just adjusting to the lack of FA action around MLB.....

 

Trade down definitely plausible. Makes sense to me to go down out of the 1st and then potentially up in some later rounds to focus on targets rather than just letting this mediocre class fall as it may. 

 

I think on Torrence the type of guard they have signed in FA makes me even more of the view he isn't a fit here. The Bills have flip flopped a bit on the style if linemen they like over the years but it makes little sense to me to sign McGovern and then draft Torrence because they are built for very different styles of offense.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Trade down definitely plausible. Makes sense to me to go down out of the 1st and then potentially up in some later rounds to focus on targets rather than just letting this mediocre class fall as it may. 

 

I think on Torrence the type of guard they have signed in FA makes me even more of the view he isn't a fit here. The Bills have flip flopped a bit on the style if linemen they like over the years but it makes little sense to me to sign McGovern and then draft Torrence because they are built for very different styles of offense.

 

Agreed on Torrence. He doesnt fit our OL or Offense. I think we'd pass on him even if he was sitting there at 27. And from a guy who desperately wanted Linderbaum and/or Humphrey, I'd be fine with it. If that were the case, would rather go skill position at 27 and get OGs in the 2nd/3rd.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Trade down definitely plausible. Makes sense to me to go down out of the 1st and then potentially up in some later rounds to focus on targets rather than just letting this mediocre class fall as it may. 

 

I think on Torrence the type of guard they have signed in FA makes me even more of the view he isn't a fit here. The Bills have flip flopped a bit on the style if linemen they like over the years but it makes little sense to me to sign McGovern and then draft Torrence because they are built for very different styles of offense.

I guess they are different style lbs, but what's your view of Campbell vs. Trenton Simpson? They both look like good picks to me.

[BuffaloBill]

22 hours ago, Success said:

I've seen mocks that have Bijan Robinson dropping out of the 1st, which are mystifying. If for any reason he drops to 27, I think we'd have to take him (especially if we don't pick up another RB in FA).

 

Thanks for posting, btw. Great rundown.

 

 

There is no reason to take a RB in rd #1 of the modern NFL.  

[Chaos]

21 hours ago, Airseven said:

There are so many roster holes/issues that drafting for need vs. BPA is one-and-the-same this year. 

 

More specifically: still need RT, still need IOL, still need RB1, still need WR2, still need TE2, still need DE2, and still need MLB. This doesn't even consider issues with Oliver and the fact they're relying on three vets in the secondary to overcome significant injuries.

But if BPA is a QB, you do agree they should draft another position? 

[Success]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

There is no reason to take a RB in rd #1 of the modern NFL.  

 

I do get that, and agree w/ it in general.  But Robinson is at a different level. He likely won't drop to us, but he would be as impactful as any starter we could get in the 1st if he was there at 27.

 

It's more likely that if he drops that far, Dallas takes him at 26.

 

[Chaos]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

There is no reason to take a RB in rd #1 of the modern NFL.  

pff MOCK draft simulator regularly presents this at the default settings

Who do you pick? 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

pff MOCK draft simulator regularly presents this at the default settings

Who do you pick? 

 

For me: One of the OTs or Downs. Although not thrilled with Downs' size.

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

For me: One of the OTs or Downs. Although not thrilled with Downs' size.

 

It seems like it is defined to create a giant dilemma for Bill's fans. BPA at the least needed position. Ugh. I would hope to be able to trade down a couple of spots and take which ever OT is left. I would avoid Downs because of his size. 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I guess they are different style lbs, but what's your view of Campbell vs. Trenton Simpson? They both look like good picks to me.

 

I think Simpson is more naturally talented and has the higher ceiling but he only really played off the ball his last year in college and to transition to an NFL MLB in a 4-3 is going to be a process and no sure bet. If I was a 3-4 team I'd take him and play him as a WILL and feel more comfortable. But he has the skillset that Beane and McDermott seem to want from their MLB. 

 

Campbell to me is a guy who go back 15 years would be a slam dunk first round pick. He tested a bit better than I expected at the combine and might still sneak into the 1st, but I worry about him in a scheme that asks him to do a lot of lateral stuff. I think if the Bills draft him to play MLB then what they are getting is really a younger, more athletic AJ Klein type who you need to use as they used Klein when he filled in - going vertically as much as possible and attacking the line of scrimmage.

[Airseven]

Draft priorities have shifted with an underwhelming free agency period. Still reasonable to expect them to acquire another RB (please not Singletary) prior to the draft.

R1 - OL/LB

R2 - LB/OL

R3 - WR/DL

R4 - DL/WR

R5 - TE/S

R6 - S/TE

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And it is actually one of the stronger position groups in this uninspiring class. I think they take a shot somewhere mid rounds... 3 through 5...

 

 

Yeah, that would make sense to me, I think.

 

 

27 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

There is no reason to take a RB in rd #1 of the modern NFL.  

 

 

Yeah, there is. 

 

If it's an important position in your defense it makes a ton of sense. The only reason it didn't work out for us for a career-long guy was that we are short on cap money this year and trying to get back on solid ground for the future. 

 

Getting a pure thumper at MLB in round 1? No, fair enough, that's not a good idea. But a guy who can make a big difference in pass defense as well? That makes plenty of sense.

[Thurman#1]

4 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Draft priorities have shifted with an underwhelming free agency period. Still reasonable to expect them to acquire another RB (please not Singletary) prior to the draft.

R1 - OL/LB

R2 - LB/OL

R3 - WR/DL

R4 - DL/WR

R5 - TE/S

R6 - S/TE

 

 

Putting the needs into rounds like that is diametrically opposed to what they do.

 

Needless to say, they'd be thrilled if one of their two biggest needs becomes available in the first round, and so on. Some years, like last year, it happens and they'll be thrilled. Other years it won't.

 

OL, MLB, WR and DL, particularly if they can rush the passer, would all make sense early, including the 1st if they are BPA. If none of those are available at a good value, I'd expect a trade back.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Who knows if we're ever getting Wagner?  Tranquil would've been nice since he graded ~ 75 for 2  straight seasons in coverage. The only way I want Campbell is on a trade down. Dawand Jones could step in and replace Brown.  And yes there's still 5 year value in drafting Bijan.  Lots of options but not sure what I'd do without my crystal ball. 

[Airseven]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Putting the needs into rounds like that is diametrically opposed to what they do.

 

Needless to say, they'd be thrilled if one of their two biggest needs becomes available in the first round, and so on. Some years, like last year, it happens and they'll be thrilled. Other years it won't.

 

OL, MLB, WR and DL, particularly if they can rush the passer, would all make sense early, including the 1st if they are BPA. If none of those are available at a good value, I'd expect a trade back.

 

 

Well sure, but the point was to rank/prioritize needs.

 

That being said, this Bills roster still has so many holes that “BPA” may be a luxury they can’t afford this year.

[OldTimer1960]

The WR list is pretty depressing.  I like Flowers and Downs, but I think they will go with Shakir and Harty in the slot.  Would love a decent sized WR, but Johnston won’t be there and the rest are pretty uninspiring.  Maybe Rashee Rice or Jonathan Mingo if he lasts to late 2nd.  I don’t see Tillman as anything special, I don’t think he will be able to get open much in the league - late 3rd or later?  Maybe then as a guy who might make some contested catches.

 

I know John Michael Schmitz is highly regarded, but he is almost as old as Tremaine Edmunds who has already played in the league 5 years.  
 

i don’t mind Avila, but he might be a big reach in late first.  
 

I think TE or OT will be BPA on offense when their pick at 27 arrives.  I think there will be some good defensive players, too.
 

There will not likely be anyone available at 27 that in a few years fans will say lived up to “a first round pick’s expectations “. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There will not likely be anyone available at 27 that in a few years fans will say lived up to “a first round pick’s expectations “. 

Trade all of our top picks for a 1,2&3 next year plus some later round picks this year.  We are running it back with the old timers this season, Morse, Miller, Hyde, Poyer, and have all of last years draft picks who didn't get to play last year. Plug them in, sit this years later round picks behind them, and be prepared for next seasons inevitible reload in the draft:

[Dr. Who]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Simpson is more naturally talented and has the higher ceiling but he only really played off the ball his last year in college and to transition to an NFL MLB in a 4-3 is going to be a process and no sure bet. If I was a 3-4 team I'd take him and play him as a WILL and feel more comfortable. But he has the skillset that Beane and McDermott seem to want from their MLB. 

 

Campbell to me is a guy who go back 15 years would be a slam dunk first round pick. He tested a bit better than I expected at the combine and might still sneak into the 1st, but I worry about him in a scheme that asks him to do a lot of lateral stuff. I think if the Bills draft him to play MLB then what they are getting is really a younger, more athletic AJ Klein type who you need to use as they used Klein when he filled in - going vertically as much as possible and attacking the line of scrimmage.

I think I'd rather take a gamble on Simpson going by your analysis.