Johnnycage46 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Process said: I know it wasnt a catch but Chase/Higgins combo is not fair. Bengals are blowing this Could be down 31 to 20 soon. Kicking FGs vs Chiefs TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, UKBillFan said: We're still waiting for a fumble to bounce our way and we've gone through week thirteen. Ha kinda true...that Brisset fumble was critical a few weeks ago. But get your point. Kc seems to get a lot of fortuitous bounces, Cincy just needs 1 stop coming up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, UKBillFan said: We're still waiting for a fumble to bounce our way and we've gone through week thirteen. It sounds like we are due! Our plan is to save them up for the playoffs. It’s 4-D chess we are playing! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherMan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Do Chiefs play insanely clean football or are they getting ball washed by these officials? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Process said: I know it wasnt a catch but Chase/Higgins combo is not fair. Bengals are blowing this One of them will be gone soon enough. They're all on rookie contracts and Mike Brown is very much a "cash to the cap" kind of owner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: This is all results oriented thinking it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making No, I've explained how even within the bot's own logic it is not a given that going for it is the right choice. What the bot actually tells us is the individual win percentage of 4 different outcomes - going for it and 1) converting or 2) failing, or kicking a FG and 3) converting or 4) failing. Everybody agrees that the FG there is basically a gimme. So using the bot's logic you're actually deciding on whether you want to accept a win probability of 65% for free, or risk ending up with a 59% win probability to try and get a 74% win probability. It is a totally valid belief that accepting the free points makes more sense than taking the risk. Whatever historical records show you don't actually know the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 attempt in this specific moment against this specific defense. You do know that the FG try is almost 100% guaranteed. Edited December 4, 2022 by HappyDays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fallser Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Stripped! Kelce fumbled!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 27 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said: Really need a KC turnover... What a prescient genius!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Kelce you flog! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: Ha kinda true...that Brisset fumble was critical a few weeks ago. But get your point. Kc seems to get a lot of fortuitous bounces, Cincy just needs 1 stop coming up Whoop there it is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let's go! Don't screw it up this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17islongenough Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 LFG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let’s GO Bengals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 ha Ha HA fumblerooskie Kelce atta boy. They better not overturn this Yay! he coughed it UP Yes he did! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EffKCChiefs Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let's go Cinci!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Romo is beginning to become insufferable. I think I'd rather listen to Collinsworth at this point 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: No, I've explained how even within the bot's own logic it is not a given that going for it is the right choice. What the bot actually tells us is the individual win percentage of 4 different outcomes - going for it and 1) converting or 2) failing, or kicking a FG and 3) converting or 4) failing. Everybody agrees that the FG there is basically a gimme. So using the bot's logic you're actually deciding on whether you want to accept a win probability of 65% for free, or risk ending up with a 59% win probability to try and get a 74% win probability. It is a totally valid belief that accepting the free points is making more sense than taking the risk. Whatever historical records show you don't actually know the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 attempt in this specific moment against this specific defense. You do know that the FG try is almost 100% guaranteed. I'm not going to argue with you, you are free to believe what you wish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 9 Isles Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Hahaha FU Kelce 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocCityRoller Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 TURNOVER!!! Let's see the refs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billznut Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let’s try TDs Cincy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 check down for 8 yards not bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I think that’s on Kelce for doing his usual shtick… trying to take every extra yard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocCityRoller Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let's go Cincy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 16 yards BEAUTIFUL keep it going!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 "KC gives up the 3rd-most receiving yards to back." Hear that, Josh and Dorsey? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: I'm not going to argue with you, you are free to believe what you wish As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) Wr in the middle of the field broke that dbs ankles of burrow waited another second. Edited December 4, 2022 by The Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17islongenough Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2o said: Romo is beginning to become insufferable. I think I'd rather listen to Collinsworth at this point You get to hear him alot more next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Mahomes looks like he's wearing blush Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocCityRoller Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite. Cincy lost all momentum after the failed 4th and goal... analytics don't know sh!t about momentum and how it affects games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Perine really grinds out those yards. Considering he looks like he's someone's grandfather, that's even more impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite. Again- the bot isn't right or wrong. The boat is simple presenting a set of percentages from which you can decide upon a course of action 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherMan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 How many holds against Cinci vs how many against KC? Completely insane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Who Dey!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said: Do Chiefs play insanely clean football or are they getting ball washed by these officials? Some of both, but Bengals say “Hold My Beer” Wish they had more than a 3 point lead though Edited December 4, 2022 by Beck Water 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WyoAZBillfan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Heck yeah!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 If Poyer’s wasn’t a catch… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLBillsFan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said: How many holds against Cinci vs how many against KC? Completely insane This ref crew should be doing Browns Texans. Isn’t this head ref the guy who freaked on AJE ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Again- the bot isn't right or wrong. The boat is simple presenting a set of percentages from which you can decide upon a course of action One last thing I'll say on this because I don't want to take over the thread - You drive all the way down to the 5 yard line and come away with 0 points. That's the risk you take in going for it there, in a game where every possession matters. I don't care what the official probability of converting 4th and 1 is. You need a lot more data than that to evaluate hyperspecific decisions. And when the decision might end up costing you an entire possession's worth of points I don't think the risk is worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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