Figuring out Knox

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

 

Kelce is the elite standard in the NFL for TE's. Well, the elite at any level... probably ever. 

 

As the years have gone by, the Chiefs use so much motion with him, he's so difficult to defend. We should be doing the same thing with Knox. Dawson is a BEAST with the ball... he's like Josh when it comes to welcoming hits. But when he's open, gotta try to get him the ball. 

 

Those ripping him for drops? Lets look at targets v catches the last few games... 

 

Pats: 1 target, 0 catches

Lions: 2 targets, 2 catches

Browns: 7 targets, 7 catches

Viks: 6 targets, 4 catches

Jets; 4 targets, 3 catches

Packers: 3 targets, 2 catches - 1 TD

Chiefs: 3 targets, 3 catches - 1 TD

 

Forget the situation or the coverage, throw, etc... he's had 26 targets his last 7 games with 21 catches and 2 scores. 

You kind of have to throw Kelce out of the equation. He's so elite that it doesn't make sense to use him as a comparison for any other player. He might be the most dominant player at a given position that I've seen since Gretzky in that no other tight end is even playing the same sport he is.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I hated the extension terms. I thought he was worth half of what he got paid, but TE's are hard to come by in this league and they probably figured it was better to be all in on an above average talent than to not have one at all.

 

Tight End is one of those positions where teams seem willing to overpay. The Pats greatly overpaid both Jonu Smith and Hunter Henry. 

[ArdmoreRyno]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You kind of have to throw Kelce out of the equation. He's so elite that it doesn't make sense to use him as a comparison for any other player. He might be the most dominant player at a given position that I've seen since Gretzky in that no other tight end is even playing the same sport he is.

 

I feel that Knox can be used in that way, motion at least once every series to get LB's confused. He has the speed to do that. No one will ever be like Kelce, dude is a freak. 

I'm trying to point out, Dawson does what he can do given the plays called and the throws by Josh. He catches nearly everything thrown to him, people only remember the occasional drop. He has caught it as well if not better than every TE in the league. He was tied for as the #1 scoring TE last season. He can also block.

 

Not sure what people want him to do. He's running wide open and the ball goes to Davis or Diggs. That's not a Knox problem.

[ArdmoreRyno]

23 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

A weird lob pass at a weird angle 🤣🤣

 

You crack me up. 

 

I would pay you to make excuses like this for me when i screw up. 

 

And watch the play. Josh was getting rushed, got destroyed and threw it as fast as he could being tackled... it was a high pass, more of a lob, while Knox was running in the flat. It wasn't a pass that hit him in the chest like you'd expect. 

You're attacking the dude for one pass while he's caught practically everything (including the game winner in Kansas City) this year.

[LabattBlue]

I am beating a dead horse, but if they don’t have a plan to make Knox a focal point of the offense, then they should not have handed him a massive contract making him one of the best paid TE’s in the league. 

[NoSaint]

11 hours ago, Wizard said:

I am curious the opinion everyone has on Knox's role in this offense.

 

The guy is being paid a good chunk of change to average 2-3 catches a game and will probably have 500 receiving yards or less this season.

 

Tonight he had zero catches, and I believe one target.

 

Is he overrated? Is he not used properly? I know the Bills are not known for having top flight TE's. I am just trying to figure out if he's fools gold or if a package of plays need to be catered to utilize him.

 

What say ye?

 

He is just a puzzling and polarizing player in this offense in my view.

 

 

all of the above?

 

he’s not a top 5 kind of tight end but is a legitimate starter in the league

 

we haven’t seemed to scheme him well either. Seems like our underneath patterns were getting covered up quick lately, whether backs, receivers, or him… those quick outs haven’t been getting guys in space on the perimeter well and I haven’t seen him split the seam much (not watching all 22)

[JaCrispy]

Terrible contract…I would continue to try and upgrade the position…he simply is not a reliable player imo..

[T master]

11 hours ago, Wizard said:

I am curious the opinion everyone has on Knox's role in this offense.

 

The guy is being paid a good chunk of change to average 2-3 catches a game and will probably have 500 receiving yards or less this season.

 

Tonight he had zero catches, and I believe one target.

 

Is he overrated? Is he not used properly? I know the Bills are not known for having top flight TE's. I am just trying to figure out if he's fools gold or if a package of plays need to be catered to utilize him.

 

What say ye?

 

He is just a puzzling and polarizing player in this offense in my view.

 

 

 

With Dion being out they needed him to be more of a blocking TE this game & he was on the side line early in the game i don't think he has been 100% this year but Josh doesn't seem to be looking to him as much either I think he is still a really good weapon & should be incorporated more especially in the red zone !! 

[BigAl2526]

12 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Josh NEEDS to look at Knox more. Especially when teams play that 2 high safety look. 

I don't disagree.  My post was a suggestion for a way to encourage Josh to look at Knox more.

[Process]

The only issue with Dawson Knox is his contract. There are like 3-5 good TEs in the league, and then everyone else. Good TEs are hard to find. We don't need an elite guy at TE when we have Diggs. 

 

The issue is we gave "just another guy" $13M per year. 

 

WR and O line and way more important and also are biggest needs. That should be where the money went. Or Poyer/Edmunds/Oliver.

[jethro_tull]

i am guessing that he has lost the trust of the QB.  

we could certainly use  TE that can get more involved.  

Using wideouts in checkdown routes is a waste and counter productive.  

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Compare his productivity under Daboll.  Then compare his productivity under Dorsey.

 

There you will find your answer

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

59 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Compare his productivity under Daboll.  Then compare his productivity under Dorsey.

 

There you will find your answer

 

 

3 receptions per game under each OC

[beerme1]

7 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

OBJ catch % the past 3 years: 54, 53, 55.....

 

 

Interesting.

[Chandler#81]

16 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

He was signed to that contract to make Allen happy as they are good friends. That's all I have as he's not worth anywhere near that contract.

You keep making new friends here. Good for you!

[Awwufelloff]

4 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You keep making new friends here. Good for you!

You think Knox is worth that contract? If you do, you're wrong. Not really debatable. Going to need that cap space next year when we lose a few core players. If we win it all it won't matter, let's hope that is the outcome. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Big Turk]

Not as big of a difference as some would lead you to believe between this year and last year.  Basically 100 more receiving yards on the same number of catches last year.

 

 

[Eastport bills]

The Bills are transitioning into a balanced offense with an interior O-line that showed impressive run blocking ability and an explosive RB in Cook against a rugged run defense in NE. I have to believe Knox was intentionally used as a decoy to open up underneath throws to the backs and the receivers. Knox will get targets as Dorsey continues to overhaul the QB run offense that defenses adjusted to. Also if Dion can’t come back, TE will have to be in pass protection because the depth at LT can’t block the edge.

[gonzo1105]

The problem is he’s not getting a chance to showcase his pass catching. Dude is blocking and chipping and running to the flat every play cause the Oline can’t block anyone. Can’t stretch the seam if your staying in for a second or two every play 

[Logic]

Knox was targeted ONE time last night. One.

I realize he dropped that pass. Still, is that a reason not to go back to your super athletic tight end and the second highest pass catcher on your team for the entire rest of the game?

I really liked the game Dorsey called last night, as I have said in the post-game thread. But I still maintain that his scheming of Knox leaves a ton to be desired, and that despite the occasional bad drop, Knox is NOT the one to blame for his lack of production in the passing game.

[Process]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Not as big of a difference as some would lead you to believe between this year and last year.  Basically 100 more receiving yards on the same number of catches last year.

 

 

Again the issue is not his production...it's his contract. There was zero reason to pay Knox that much and definitely no reason to give him his second contract early. He was still under contract for this year. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I am beating a dead horse, but if they don’t have a plan to make Knox a focal point of the offense, then they should not have handed him a massive contract making him one of the best paid TE’s in the league. 

 

His AAV is 13M which puts him at 7th, right ahead of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.   Ertz got 10.5 but he's always hurt (i believe he just went to IR).  Next in line for extensions are Gesicki, Schultz, and Engram.  I don't see any of them jumping Knox.  Year after that Hockenson, Fant, Kmet come up.  Their extensions probably hit next offseason and push \Knox down.  

 

At the end of the day - were about 20th in TE spending in 2022 (maybe higher with the howard dead money) and 2023 towards the cap, and we jump up to 8th in 2024 for cap dollars.  However when you look at that list, half of the teams have either a rookie contract, or nothing really at all committed to TE.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Process said:

Again the issue is not his production...it's his contract. There was zero reason to pay Knox that much and definitely no reason to give him his second contract early. He was still under contract for this year. 

 

It avoids having to use a tag though, or risk having nothing at the position.   He's at least on par with Gesicki, Engram, and Schultz. 

 

It's a position with a steep learning curve in the NFL so rookies tend to not contribute as much.  Then you have the drop off in skills once you get outside that top group.  There might be a skill gap around blocking, they may not be a plus athlete, or have availability issues.  May have just felt comfortable to overpay a little bit.  

 

Smith and Henry got 12.5 a year before knox was paid, Uzomah got 8M AAV.  

[below]

He always seems to come through when he's targeted. Great catches. Great after the catch.  Just isn't used that much. 

 

I thought the contract was crazy high too. But I think it's just the going rate now for above-average TE's.  It's always been a position of scarcity. 

 

He's probably the best TE we've had since I've been watching the Bills (30 years). 

 

So I see it as a good problem to have.

 

Unfortunately the opportunity cost is going to be the inability to afford to keep someone else, like Poyer.

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 12/1/2022 at 11:12 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Let's not over think this. He's the same exact player he has always been. Only difference is the TD's dried up. That shouldn't be a surprise. TD's are less predictive year over year than receptions and yardage totals. He averaged 3.3 receptions per game last year. And this year he is averaging... 3.3 receptions per game.

 

To your point:

 

 

Top is 2022

Bottom is 2021

 

Difference: 5 TD

 

And the winning comment:

 

On 12/1/2022 at 11:13 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

agree. He could have easily had like 5-7 catches. 

 

And this.  He's been living a lot in the "very short pass/check down" area of the field where Josh Allen has a tendency not to see a guy.

 

He has missed some catches he could have had, which had me PERCEIVING him as struggling in the passing game  - but I was surprised when I looked - he's actually rocking a career best catch % at 76.7% and his drop % is a career low to this point (he has had some catches we look at and say "he could and should have had that", but they weren't scored  as drops)

 

It is true that his receptions per game and targets per game are down, but it's only fractionally - basically, 1 target per game.

 

I think the problem is, we expected his trajectory to continue to climb as far as targets, receptions, and yards, especially when he got the big contract.  So he's doing pretty much what he was doing when he got paid, we all just expected .....more.

 

BUT the above is still true.  Knox is being under-utilized and could easily have, maybe not the 7 reception 70 yd game he had vs. the Browns, but a 5 target, 4 reception game for 40 yds or more, every game - many on plays where Allen is targeting a higher risk, better covered deeper option.

[Beck Water]

On 12/1/2022 at 10:54 PM, Awwufelloff said:

He was signed to that contract to make Allen happy as they are good friends. That's all I have as he's not worth anywhere near that contract.

 

Beane may make minor, relatively low-impact personnel decisions to "make Allen happy".

 

For example, faced with two TE who aren't very good in OJ Howard and Tommy Sweeney, either likely to be inactive on game day, Beane may keep the one who knows our playbook better and who is "good friends" with Allen over the one who, in theory, has a higher ceiling once he learns the playbook. 

 

Faced with keeping one of two WR on the practice squad, Beane may keep Allen's boy Gentry who, as a vet may be better at "looks" on scout team, over a younger guy with possibly more long-term potential (in theory).

 

(Note that in both these cases there may be a sound football reason for the choice, but "making Allen happy" could weigh into it.)

 

But if you think Beane is going to hand out a 4 year, $52M contract to "make Allen happy" and not because he thinks that's genuinely fair market value for the guy - Think Again.

[ArdmoreRyno]

Knox 4 catches for 41 yards and a MONSTER touchdown today 

[Beast]

11 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

Knox 4 catches for 41 yards and a MONSTER touchdown today 

He sure did.

 

And he also had 2 other balls you would like to see a high priced TE haul in that he didn’t.

[ArdmoreRyno]

25 minutes ago, Beast said:

He sure did.

 

And he also had 2 other balls you would like to see a high priced TE haul in that he didn’t.

So did Diggs & Isiah.