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Epenesa, Ford & Moss -Are they outta here?


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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

If you judge things only partially that way, then the rest of your method may well be terrific. But it simply isn't fair to judge a pick by what you missed out on. Other than perhaps the very first few picks there's nearly always someone better picked later. Being a human endeavor, that's what you'd expect. Hindsight always makes things look much easier than they actually were.

Well, I knew that these picks (McKelvin and Whitner to name 2) were mistakes the day they were made mand it was easy to figure for me. And of course, I am not a scout, coach or GM. A 12 year old kid with a copy of Joel Buchbaum's Pro Football Weekly could draft better than Levy/Jauron.

 

Remember, this thread went in the direction of people being over critical of the Bills and those being total "homers."  My response was in that context, and I'm sorry if I was a bit short.

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15 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

Why do you think they won't pay Singletary? Do you think he will be too expensive for some reason? 


I like Singletary, but I hope they don’t extend him. He’s not special or dynamic enough that you couldn’t replace his talents with another mid round pick. They also just invested a 2nd round pick in a running back.

 

In general, unless a running back is special, I don’t think it’s good business to give them a second contract. Even then, it often doesn’t work out — see McCaffrey and Elliot.

 

I hope they spend that money elsewhere. Knox, Oliver, Edmunds, and Poyer are all coming up, so the Bills will need every last penny.

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They will likely all be backup rotational players, although it would not be super surprising to see one or two of them cut, but I kinda doubt it.

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6 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

We All know Cody's struggles.

Moss has never looked like much.

AJ has too much upside to cut already. 

Plus a cost controlled rotational/backup DE has much more value than a rotational/backup RB or backup OG. 

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10 hours ago, offyourocker said:

Moss is safe.  Singletary is in his last year and there is no way we pay him

 

 

I can see a situation where somewhere mid season if Motor is playing really well that they offer him an extension. 

 

I could see a 4 year 20 million deal if he plays like he did down the stretch after around week 9 or 10.  Penny is around 5 mill if I'm not mistaken.

 

We go into 2023 with Motor, Cook, and maybe Moss who's still on his rookie deal. 

 

That's say 9 million total cap hit for the RB position? 

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1 hour ago, Logic said:


I like Singletary, but I hope they don’t extend him. He’s not special or dynamic enough that you couldn’t replace his talents with another mid round pick. They also just invested a 2nd round pick in a running back.

 

In general, unless a running back is special, I don’t think it’s good business to give them a second contract. Even then, it often doesn’t work out — see McCaffrey and Elliot.

 

I hope they spend that money elsewhere. Knox, Oliver, Edmunds, and Poyer are all coming up, so the Bills will need every last penny.

 

Definitely agree with you here. My quote was regarding poster that said, "no way Bills will pay DS". 

 

Unless I misunderstood that poster, it seemed as if they were meaning Devin would cost too much when they said "no way Bills pay him"?

 

Anyways, I may have misinterpreted, but if not then I just wanted to question why he thinks Devin would be too expensive and hasn't really done enough along with fewer opportunities to warrant any expensive contract

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Well, I'm not going to argue with the guy in the video, but all he said is that these three guys haven't shown me enough in the past.  If the past is all we have to go by, I agree, all three would be gone. 

 

But history has nothing to do with whether they make the team this season.  The question is how much better did each of the three get between the end of last season and the end of this August.  

 

Purely statistically, odds are that at least one makes it. 

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think Ford is probably on the outside of the 53 looking in as we are sitting here today. They have the presumed starting 5: Dawkins, Saffold, Morse, Bates, Brown and then their top tackle depth (Quess), their top interior depth (Van Roten) and their specialist center backup (which at the moment I'd say is Mancz). That leaves probably 1 spot and I think they are more interested in continuing to develop Doyle than Ford at this point. 

 

Moss and AJE would not be shocking cuts, but I expect both to make the 53 as we sit here today. 

 

Doyle has shown to be able to be utility player in 6 man rotation so it is another factor in his favor.

 

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I think all guys are bubble guys and generally agree with the board.

 

Most likely cut/ traded most likely to less likely:

 

Ford - 75%+ to be cut or traded. The guy is a bust. I think Ford is an example of a guy who did well in college due to having NFL size and strength. He does not have NFL speed or foot movement. It's like he has cement blocks on his shoes. The OL has continued to be in transition for a few seasons. Replacement level guys like Mongo/ Boettger/ Williams (now replacement level) and Bates have all taken hold of a position and played well for stretches. Ford has failed every time. Hiring a respected OL coach like Kromer may make it easier for OBD to cut Ford and move on. Swing and a miss on Ford, but it happens. I hope this triggers OBD to do some legitimate investment in OL next offseason.

 

Moss - 50-50 to me. He was supposed to be a bruiser type back. He did really well against his level of competition while with Utah, but the NFL is another beast. Both he and Singletary are slow by NFL RB standards. Before people go quoting 40 speeds, I am talking about game speed. Cook is going to expose just how slow this backfield really is. The thing is none of the top 3/4 backs are a true RB 1. Moss is an excellent blocker, he has shown much better hands than I thought he had. He is not a pile mover like we all wanted him to be. He isn't slippery like Singletary is. He has an uphill battle. I expect him to be featured in pre-season for trade bait. If he is a Bill I wish him the best, but I would not be surprised if he was dealt or a last cut candidate. I was one of the big Moss supporters last off season.

 

Epenessa - 25% - Totally mismanaged. Weight up, weight down, buried on the depth chart. I think Epenessa is a valuable rotational piece at DE with the losses of Hughes and Addison. I know Miller was added and Lawson is back. I think we see flashes of plays from Epenessa. Least likely to be cut or traded. A big factor will be how many DE does Buffalo carry? Rousseau and Miller are locks. I am higher than most on Basham. Basham's efficiency was excellent for his playtime. I'm not sure who DE 4 is. I think it is a camp battle between Lawson and Epenessa. If 5 or more DE are kept I think Epenessa is safe. I do think Buffalo keeps only 10 DL this year.

Edited by RocCityRoller
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I watched some of the highlights of last year and Moss looked good early in the year, which I had completely forgotten. Epenesa either steps it up this year or might get cut since we can save some money next year by cutting him, but I bet he is on team this year at least. As for Ford I think he is at the point where all that matters is his play, he is past the point where "potential" matters. I do think he makes team as last lineman but someone could jump him 

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Not sure what this is about. When your team goes 7-9 for like twenty straight years you have the luxury letting under performers hang around waiting for a symbolic ring of honor, or just a years of service pin and a gift card. But…when you’re trying to win a super bowl or two or three, the pressure to perform goes way up, not down. So long as Josh is committed and the team’s winning you’re probably going to see a lot of turnover in the middle level of the locker room. The players listed here are obviously amongst that group.

 

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7 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I judge draft selections partially by looking at who a team passed up in order to select a certain player. In 2006, the draft was loaded with talented players at positions at which we were weak.

 

Another GREAT example would be the McKelvin pick. Iirc, 2 of the next 3 picks were excellent offensive linemen and our line sucked at the time. No, we had to pass them up for a corner. 😟

 

Tough times Bro! 

That's actually a very good way to look at the picks. The slavish adherence to BPA can also be a problem (not implying that McKelvin, Whitner were such). Should have a measure of practicality - if the next player is close on the board but fills a need esp at premium position like T , WR or DE, the other player should be picked.

But those were dark days for the franchise and much of that was self inflicted by the FOs at the time

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13 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

2 2nd Rounders and a 3rd in the last 3 Drafts. They just can’t crack the lineup. There’ve been some injuries that have kept them out of games and we platoon DL & RB. But even when they’re healthy, they’re often scratched on Gameday. Our OL has been a weekly shuffle for a couple seasons now, so assuredly Ford has been offered opportunity, whereas we’ve tended to go with ‘hot hands’ at RB & DE. Can Position coaches, new schemes and new player additions help get them to break through? Or have we seen their best and it ain’t cutting’ it.. 

This guy, along with our resident pessimists @BADOLBILZ & @ScottLaw -who’ll blame McBeane, believes the end is near.

 

 

I think it's fair to put some of this on Beane taking some chances and swinging for the fences. To look at these as isolated incidents, will look bad.

 

However, when you look at some of the other picks we've made that thrive, they may not hsve been possible with the mindset that comes with drafting to -not have a bust.

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47 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

That's actually a very good way to look at the picks. The slavish adherence to BPA can also be a problem (not implying that McKelvin, Whitner were such). Should have a measure of practicality - if the next player is close on the board but fills a need esp at premium position like T , WR or DE, the other player should be picked.

But those were dark days for the franchise and much of that was self inflicted by the FOs at the time

It’s also an easy crutch because EVERY year there are players that go late in the first that turn out better than others that go early.  Whitner was pickedwell higher than his projection but this was not true of McKelvin.  A DB is not automatically a bad pick and an OL is not automatically good.  See Ford, Cody and White, Tre’Davious for recent early returns.

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12 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Honestly, I think all 3 make it….

 

who’s going to beat our Ford?

 

Moss will win because he’s drafted.

 

AJ is in no trouble atall….

 

A task that should not be all that difficult probably? 

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23 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Honestly, I think all 3 make it….

 

who’s going to beat our Ford?

 

Moss will win because he’s drafted.

 

AJ is in no trouble atall….

Starters:

Dawkins

Saffold

Morse

Bates

Brown

 

Backup/developmental:

Doyle

Quessenberry

Mancz

Van Roten

 

If a tenth spot:

Tenuta

 

Injured Reserve:

Boettger

 

I would put all of those guys above Ford at this point, even Tenuta.

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1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

That's actually a very good way to look at the picks. The slavish adherence to BPA can also be a problem (not implying that McKelvin, Whitner were such). Should have a measure of practicality - if the next player is close on the board but fills a need esp at premium position like T , WR or DE, the other player should be picked.

But those were dark days for the franchise and much of that was self inflicted by the FOs at the time

Thanks for what I consider to be a perfect post.

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3 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

Definitely agree with you here. My quote was regarding poster that said, "no way Bills will pay DS". 

 

Unless I misunderstood that poster, it seemed as if they were meaning Devin would cost too much when they said "no way Bills pay him"?

 

Anyways, I may have misinterpreted, but if not then I just wanted to question why he thinks Devin would be too expensive and hasn't really done enough along with fewer opportunities to warrant any expensive contract

Singletary is actually a decent RB 4.6 ypc is nothing to sneeze at  also  will see how he does behind a better OL , expensive contract no he’s not going to get that here but I could definitely see something like a 3 year $12million 

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