The Ringer: How Did the Buffalo Bills Go From the Top of the AFC to the Fringe of the Playoff Picture?

[YoloinOhio]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/22/22796777/buffalo-bills-lose-colts-skid-playoffs-patriots-afc-east
 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

Certainly validates what most posters are saying.  Defenses don’t even have to think about defending the run against Bills.  And our defense isn’t built to stop the run.  

[GoBills808]

It took a season, but defenses finally figured out how easy it is to defend an offense that cannot run block. 

[FilthyBeast]

Was just about to post this too.

 

But a great read that hits on a lot of the discussion points here including Josh Allen's regression and how he's been a big part of the problem this year.

 

Obviously McDermott is probably not going anywhere after this season but I think at minimum firing Daboll has to be on the table, if not both coordinators because their philosophies simply don't jive with what it takes to win in this league which is being physical in the trenches.

[dorquemada]

regression to the mean and personnel/coaching built to fold in the face of adversity

[NewEra]

One dimensional = easy to stop with the correct game plan.  That’s why our season ended last season.  It’ll likely be the reason our season ends this season.  The FO thought that the run game could be retooled and successful by keeping last years OL that couldn’t run block and both RBs…. While adding a part time RB a tackle prospect that hadn’t played in a year and another tackle prospect that has no business being on an nfl roster at the moment. 

[Success]

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Was just about to post this too.

 

But a great read that hits on a lot of the discussion points here including Josh Allen's regression and how he's been a big part of the problem this year.

 

Obviously McDermott is probably not going anywhere after this season but I think at minimum firing Daboll has to be on the table, if not both coordinators because their philosophies simply don't jive with what it takes to win in this league which is being physical in the trenches.

Disagree regarding Frazier.  It’s not his fault that we only have 1 DT capable of playing the 1T effectively.  Last season, we had none.  0.0% chance he’s fired imo.  He’s a very solid DC.  Daboll needs to show that he can adapt.  Frazier has done that several times over his career.  

[LyndonvilleBill]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Was just about to post this too.

 

But a great read that hits on a lot of the discussion points here including Josh Allen's regression and how he's been a big part of the problem this year.

 

Obviously McDermott is probably not going anywhere after this season but I think at minimum firing Daboll has to be on the table, if not both coordinators because their philosophies simply don't jive with what it takes to win in this league which is being physical in the trenches.

I agree on Daboll (as well as the oline coach). Need someone that has a run game plan, short game plan and is not hung up on all downfield stuff. As to Frazier, I think McDermott could be more involved in the D, but overall I think the Defense has been doing pretty well when everyone is playing. 

[zow2]

File this link in the big cabinet in Buffalo labeled "we can't have nice things" here.  

[LABILLBACKER]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Certainly validates what most posters are saying.  Defenses don’t even have to think about defending the run against Bills.  And our defense isn’t built to stop the run.  

Nope. Run the ball and stop the run requires players we currently don't have on the roster. 

[ngbills]

The turnover and field position are things I have been trying to point. I was slammed for saying the O has not looked right - how can you say that when we are scoring 40+. This team has been winning because the D has made it easy on the offense. 

[BuffaloRebound]

McDermott ain’t going anywhere, but pretty clear Daboll is coaching for his job the next 7 weeks.  Amazing how fast the NFL figures you out.  

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

The turnover and field position are things I have been trying to point. I was slammed for saying the O has not looked right - how can you say that when we are scoring 40+. This team has been winning because the D has made it easy on the offense. 

But, but, but look at the stats!  Our offense was obviously just as good as last year, if not better!!! 🙄 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/22/22796777/buffalo-bills-lose-colts-skid-playoffs-patriots-afc-east
 

 

 

He says:

Quote

It’s difficult to pin any of Buffalo’s four losses on any one issue. The first loss of the recent slide came against a Titans team still powered by a healthy Derrick Henry, who rushed for 143 yards and three touchdowns on just 20 carries. The second, the aforementioned stinker in Jacksonville, could be pinned entirely on the offense, which generated just two field goals against a Jags defense that ranked dead last in DVOA going into that game. Against Indianapolis on Sunday, the Bills tied those two performances together.

 

I don't agree with this.

 

I feel all of the 4 losses come down to one core issue: Lack of a credible run threat on offense.  It allows teams to run overload schemes and stunts on DL while still flooding the field, on 3rd and long and even shorter plays.  It allows teams to tee off on us and pin their ears back in the passing game.   This issue extends back to the playoff games last winter.

 

In addition, the scheme McDermott and Frazier run seems vulnerable to teams with a strong OL, top RB, and sufficient pass game. 

[zow2]

The transition from a Bills team on the ascend (the past couple seasons) to a team circling the drain is humbling.  It's tough to take how quickly things can go South.

 

 

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

McDermott ain’t going anywhere, but pretty clear Daboll is coaching for his job the next 7 weeks.  Amazing how fast the NFL figures you out.  

Not looking to give Daboll excuses, but are the recent deaths of his Grandparents any distraction. I doubt it but giving him some room for that. 

[GoBills808]

Remember, this is also the guy who said this:

 

 

[Commish]

16 minutes ago, Success said:

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

This. Allen was the leading candidate for MVP before this game.

[dorquemada]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The transition from a Bills team on the ascend (the past couple seasons) to a team circling the drain is humbling.  It's tough to take how quickly things can go South.

 

 

 

It really is.  I guess the true measure of genius when it comes to leading a team (coach/gm) is the ability to keep evolving because the league will catch up to your current cleverness before you can blink

[corta765]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The transition from a Bills team on the ascend (the past couple seasons) to a team circling the drain is humbling.  It's tough to take how quickly things can go South.

 

 

 

I mean I think for the next few years Buffalo will still be viewed as a team very much in the thick of it. It is on the Bills to finish the job and not be an also ran.

[DrDawkinstein]

23 minutes ago, Success said:

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

[Success]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

 

I respect that, and it does seem like the short game should be easier. It's kind of like we have it now as a fallback, instead of being designed that way - maybe if we go into a game and that's the gameplan, like the Pats do w/ Jones.  

 

But I see the hero ball & lack of help as being intertwined. I think Allen has gone back to more hero ball out of desperation - basically, because there isn't much help out there for him.  You can only take so many sacks & have so many 3rd & longs before you start forcing the issue.

 

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

You don’t think the fact that defenses can disguise coverages without even thinking about stopping a run game has to do with Josh holding the ball too long?  

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

You don’t think the fact that defenses can disguise coverages without even thinking about stopping a run game has to do with Josh holding the ball too long?  

 

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors.

 

It's a factor. But we saw the Patriots utilize a short, quick passing game in replacement of a running game for YEARS. It can be done. We aren't even trying it. Which is weird considering Daboll was with the Pats during that time.

[DCOrange]

The line about the Bills ranking 1st in the league in success rate on man runs vs. near the bottom of the league on zone runs was interesting to me.

 

Also chuckled at the line about teams trying to turn Allen into a pocket passer. Any time there's discussion of a QB struggling, you'll almost always find that line.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The line about the Bills ranking 1st in the league in success rate on man runs vs. near the bottom of the league on zone runs was interesting to me.

 

Also chuckled at the line about teams trying to turn Allen into a pocket passer. Any time there's discussion of a QB struggling, you'll almost always find that line.

SO DUMB!

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont know how much I can agree with this. At least the 99% part. Bad protection and lack of run game are certainly big factors. But his insistence of playing hero ball and going deep is on him, and also contributes to the "bad protection" factor.

 

Get the ball out quick. We are running the Patriots playbook. We KNOW those quick passes to Welker/Edelman/BEASLEY exist. They used them in lieu of a run game for years. Short pass, ball out QUICK.

 

As the article shows, even when he makes short passes, he is holding it for 3 seconds and only making the short pass as a dump off. Usually after staring down the receiver as well.

The author uses this video as evidence for what you're suggesting Allen should be doing:

 

https://streamable.com/rl02sf

 

This is an empty set WITH A SEVEN STEP DROP! There are two checkdown options but it's obvious the intent on this play is for a deep pass...there is a reason he holds the ball for a long time and his short passes are dump offs: that's largely what's being called/available.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

The author uses this video as evidence for what you're suggesting Allen should be doing:

 

https://streamable.com/rl02sf

 

This is an empty set WITH A SEVEN STEP DROP! There are two checkdown options but it's obvious the intent on this play is for a deep pass...there is a reason he holds the ball for a long time and his short passes are dump offs: that's largely what's being called/available.

 

Exactly.

 

However, in some fairness to both Daboll and Josh, the example in that video is on 3rd and 18. I get wanting to push it deeper in that situation. But even if they just picked up 8 yards, it would have put us in solid FG range. Instead of turning it over.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Exactly.

 

However, in some fairness to both Daboll and Josh, the example in that video is on 3rd and 18. I get wanting to push it deeper in that situation. But even if they just picked up 8 yards, it would have put us in solid FG range. Instead of turning it over.

I don't think the author gets his conclusions right, but that's a little beside the issue I know...the idea that there are a lot of underneath/short routes to be exploited a la Brady's Patriots doesn't ring true to me. To my eye, everything underneath w Daboll is a dig or curl with very little room for YAC which makes those throws less appealing...McDaniels got his guys in space moving forward, Daboll doesn't seem to have the same eye for the short stuff imo. Especially now with Beasley obviously limited by his injuries.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I don't think the author gets his conclusions right, but that's a little beside the issue I know...the idea that there are a lot of underneath/short routes to be exploited a la Brady's Patriots doesn't ring true to me. To my eye, everything underneath w Daboll is a dig or curl with very little room for YAC which makes those throws less appealing...McDaniels got his guys in space moving forward, Daboll doesn't seem to have the same eye for the short stuff imo. Especially now with Beasley obviously limited by his injuries.

 

Right, but we know the plays are there in the playbook since we've seen the Pats do it. Daboll needs to figure it out.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right, but we know the plays are there in the playbook since we've seen the Pats do it. Daboll needs to figure it out.

And not to keep beating this drum but when you lack a credible threat of a run game the defensive line can play much more freely...the offensive line's inability to run block in any meaningful way is imo the largest contributing factor to our struggles on offense.

[Patrick Duffy]

Well it's a little bit of many things imo. First injuries/ covid list players missing, which is biggest factor in OL being so bad. Also, Bills have a hard time with teams that feature top RB;s it seems (Henry, Taylor) which falls on DL and maybe the scheme for those types of RB's/offenses.

 

Add in Bills have no run game and opponents know this and have 0 respect for it. Sprinkle in Daboll's questionable play calling at times along with a few bad decisions by Josh, those things can be a reason I would think

 

 

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Success said:

To me, 99% of Allen's regression is factors he can't control.

 

Bad protection & run game. Similar issues to last year when he did well - but clearly, defenses have adjusted to who the Bills are.  When a D doesn't respect the run game, it gets much harder for a QB.

 

I don’t disagree with you at all, but how can you know if you have a tying game or not when your top RB in singletary has less than 20 more carries than your QB.  I mean I’d get it if this was the Ravens with Jackson but IMO does anyone even KNOW if your team could run? They don’t seem to even try in a game to do it.

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

The transition from a Bills team on the ascend (the past couple seasons) to a team circling the drain is humbling.  It's tough to take how quickly things can go South.

 

 

 

 

As crazy as this sounds, I do not think the Bills are far away from a fix. I do not know if they can get it done within this season. The Bills built the roster to challenge KC and the league changed around them. The good news is the rest of the AFC looks weak.

[TN Bills Fan]

The Bills have gotten old at key positions on both lines very quickly: Darryl Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler.  Star can't stay on the field.  2 high picks seem to be a bust: Epeneza, and Cody Ford.   I think they thought those older players would have another year in them and bridge them to a developing Basham and Rousseau.  The bridge got old and sunk.  They have now played 4 good teams and lost to 3 of them.  With both Beasley and Samuels showing their age this may not be an easy fix.

[BillsFanSD]

Allen isn't the problem -- he's the reason why we still have a winning record and still have a good shot at the division title.  Put a replacement-level QB under center and we're probably sitting at 3-7 or something.

 

As others have noted, our problems boil down to a complete inability to run the football (almost entirely an o-line problem) and a general inability to defend against teams that feature a power running game.  I don't feel that bad about the latter.  Lots of teams don't defend the run well these days because so few teams are built that way.  It makes more sense to build our defense around beating the KCs and NEs of the world, so I can live with some struggles against teams like IND and TEN.  But the offense's struggles are just unacceptable IMO.

[ngbills]

18 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Allen isn't the problem -- he's the reason why we still have a winning record and still have a good shot at the division title.  Put a replacement-level QB under center and we're probably sitting at 3-7 or something.

But for argument sake - he could be why we 6-4 and not 9-1 or 8-2. That is a better debate than saying he is the reason we are not 3-7. This D has been lights out and a ton of QB's could have us at 6-4 especially with the easy schedule. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

But for argument sake - he could be why we 6-4 and not 9-1 or 8-2. That is a better debate than saying he is the reason we are not 3-7. This D has been lights out and a ton of QB's could have us at 6-4 especially with the easy schedule. 

I would be interested in seeing your list of guys who would have this team at 6-4. Specifically which other ton of QBS would have won the Chiefs game.

[Big Blitz]

And 21 TDs to 8 INTs.  

 

Allen hasn't regressed but oline and running game have 

 

And Herbert got to play Pittsburgh's JV defense last night.  It's nice to dump it off to a RB that makes 6 guys miss 

 

This Ruiz hates Allen - for those that don't follow him on Twitter.  But the other stuff about the O is correct and Allen can only over come so much.  Especially with Beasley hurt and Sanders beginning to run out of gas. 

 

Heard this stat today..  Sanders is currently NUMBER 1 in air yards per target (it might be per catch) in the league - and he is dead LAST in YAC.  Only Diggs and Knox have been good run after catch.   

Edited November 22, 2021 by Big Blitz