Joe B / The Athletic A22 Breakdown

[Heitz]

 

CliffsNotes anyone?

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Allen's 62.3 PFF makes sense. 

 

Pressure doesn't explain all of the passing offense struggles. 

[HappyDays]

I'll copy and paste some of the section on Allen:

 

Quote

Josh Allen’s struggles start with his feet
Before we dive into the Josh Allen breakdown, it’s important to note that the Bills didn’t need their quarterback to be superhuman against the Dolphins. The Bills were firmly ahead all day, which slightly alters the game’s scope. However, Allen is off to a slow start through two games, and it has quite a few fans wondering what’s going on with the franchise quarterback. As we discovered Tuesday, Allen has shown an early tendency not to throw to his right, and his intermediate accuracy (10 to 25 yards) has fallen off considerably from his MVP-level season in 2020. That’s why the advanced stats study needs to be followed up by film study to pinpoint his early-season difficulties.

The film showed Allen looking left by default, but there were exceptions. That seems to be a very fixable problem. Above all, it just seems like Allen is moving his feet and throwing the ball from an uneven platform too often. There are times when Allen has to keep moving because a pass blocker hasn’t contained his assignment, but there were too many occasions where it was unnecessary. The term that sprang to mind most often was “busy feet.” Without his feet set, Allen is falling off more throws, and he’s relying on his plus-arm strength way too often. It was an issue in 2019 and something he cleaned up in 2020 to a great degree. There were nine plays Sunday when Allen missed a receiver either because of questionable footwork or not releasing off his first read quickly enough. Here’s a look at those nine plays.

 

After breaking down those 9 plays, it concludes:

 

Quote

If even half of these throws are completions, we’re talking about a much better day for Allen. If he hits almost all of them, it’s a prolific day. But there were also a few occasions where Allen looked like his 2020 self. The 35-yard throw that he dropped into the bucket to Sanders was excellent, even if he was falling off slightly. Allen’s deep pass to Diggs thrown purposely short because of the hard-charging free safety was another high note. He trusted Diggs to adjust to the ball and come back and get it, and the play went for 41 yards.

However, the play when Allen looked most like himself from last year was the Bills’ first play of the half. He dropped into the pocket and it seemed like everything slowed down for him. He went through all of his reads to both sides of the field, manipulated the coverage with his eyes, kept his feet ready to move but was poised and calm. He then stepped into his throw and fired a 22-yard pass to Cole Beasley over the middle. That calm demeanor amid chaos was part of his growth last season. If the Bills can duplicate that play, Allen has every opportunity to get back on track.

 

The good news is all of these problems are fixable. Allen is just off his game right now. I'm confident he'll find it again.

[BuffaloRebound]

Certainly food for the ‘Josh gets too amped up and jittery in front of full stadiums’ crowd.  Good news is he should have confidence knowing he can play at an MVP level.  Now he’s gotta pretend there’s nobody in the crowd.  

[dave mcbride]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I'll copy and paste some of the section on Allen:

 

 

After breaking down those 9 plays, it concludes:

 

 

The good news is all of these problems are fixable. Allen is just off his game right now. I'm confident he'll find it again.

This seems like a more convincing assessment to me than the Kubiak evaluation. Kubiak didn't even mention the late third-quarter near pick on the McKenzie throw.

Edited September 22, 2021 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I'll copy and paste some of the section on Allen:

 

 

After breaking down those 9 plays, it concludes:

 

 

The good news is all of these problems are fixable. Allen is just off his game right now. I'm confident he'll find it again.

 

Agree with most of Joe's breakdown. The feet are the biggest part of Josh's issue right now. Not uncommon for QBs to develop that habit when their pass pro starts to struggle. As I said yesterday a couple of throws his delivery was a bit slingy too rather than the revamped throwing motion he was able to use in 2020. Just comes from being a bit frantic IMO. Josh needs to chill out, trust his line to hold their blocks and relax. He will be fine.

 

I'd be much more worried if the inaccuracy was coming on plays where his mechanics were fully functioning. That is when you worry about flukes and one off seasons. For now the case is when Josh's mechanics hold up he is on the money. When they get sketchy because of pressure (or perceived pressure that isn't there) the ball is getting away from him some. 

 

He really needs a hot start in a game to get him going and it will all click.

Edited September 22, 2021 by GunnerBill

[machine gun kelly]

This was a much more reasoned explanation and it looked like he was not set in his throws.  Joe did a nice breakdown.

 

He fixed this before from 19 to 20, and he’ll do it again.  Trying to tie to crowds doesn’t make sense to me.  He’s not a rookie.

[CuseBill]

You would think that Ken Dorsey sees what Joe B. (and most knowledgeable fans) see and would immediately fix that with Josh.  Or does Josh reach out to Jordan Palmer in season and say "hey Jordan, what do you think I'm doing that needs some adjustment?"  Would love to be a fly on the wall to see what's going on behind the scenes.

[Stank_Nasty]

i was actually super annoyed with that "misfire" to diggs down the sideline. i thought at the time Diggs would have walked into the EZ if he hit him in stride. No clue there was a safety bearing down..... Guess thats why i'm on the couch. lol.

[BringBackFlutie]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Allen's 62.3 PFF makes sense. 

 

Pressure doesn't explain all of the passing offense struggles. 

 

It might not be the key to fixing the offensive issues, but it certainly explains them.  The article specifically mentions two things:

1) Allen is demonstrating happy feet, and drifting to his left, while falling off throws.

2) The right tackle is the lowest graded player on the team.

 

#2 PERFECTLY explains #1.

 

Now, #2 isn't the key to fixing the issues.  You can't expect to have perfect protection on every play.  Josh has to settle down, and set and throw when he has the room to do so.

 

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree with most of Joe's breakdown. The feet are the biggest part of Josh's issue right now. Not uncommon for QBs to develop that habit when their pass pro starts to struggle. As I said yesterday a couple of throws his delivery was a bit slingy too rather than the revamped throwing motion he was able to use in 2020. Just comes from being a bit frantic IMO. Josh needs to chill out, trust his line to hold their blocks and relax. He will be fine.

 

I'd be much more worried if the inaccuracy was coming on plays where his mechanics were fully functioning. That is when you worry about flukes and one off seasons. For now the case is when Josh's mechanics hold up he is on the money. When they get sketchy because of pressure (or perceived pressure that isn't there) the ball is getting away from him some. 

 

He really needs a hot start in a game to get him going and it will all click.

 

Yeah. This.

[billybrew1]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Certainly food for the ‘Josh gets too amped up and jittery in front of full stadiums’ crowd.  Good news is he should have confidence knowing he can play at an MVP level.  Now he’s gotta pretend there’s nobody in the crowd.  

I thought it was the pressure of signing that contract......

Could be a little of column A and B....

He's nervous that's for sure....

He's got to calm down and remember his techniques.

Get his feet right and the ball will follow.

And concentrate on what he's seeing....

Trust it and throw.

Thats what he did last year.

He did you t before, he'll do it again.

 

Go Bills!

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

This was a much more reasoned explanation and it looked like he was not set in his throws.  Joe did a nice breakdown.

 

He fixed this before from 19 to 20, and he’ll do it again.  Trying to tie to crowds doesn’t make sense to me.  He’s not a rookie.

Agree. As for crowds, the previous narrative was that Allen was too amped up in front of the home crowd. Now it’s  been shifted to be in front of fans in general. There may have been something to the home crowd issue , as the hero ball seemed to creep in. Still, it’s not an issue to play in front of fans. Just seems like falling back into a few bad mechanical things. Allen will get this corrected. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Boatdrinks

[Utah John]

It will be useful to track Allen's performance vs the strength of the opponent's pass rush. Pittsburgh obviously has a great D line, Miami doesn't, and Washington does.  Let's see how this unfolds on Sunday. 

 

If the Bills passing game struggles against teams with great pass rushers, they need to find other ways to win.  Daboll seems reluctant to switch up the Bill's offense, and who can blame him for not wanting to give up what could be its greatest strength, the passing game.  But when other teams take away the route progressions the Bills use, it's necessary to go to alternatives.  Something will be open and it's up to Allen and Daboll to find it. 

[machine gun kelly]

36 minutes ago, Utah John said:

It will be useful to track Allen's performance vs the strength of the opponent's pass rush. Pittsburgh obviously has a great D line, Miami doesn't, and Washington does.  Let's see how this unfolds on Sunday. 

 

If the Bills passing game struggles against teams with great pass rushers, they need to find other ways to win.  Daboll seems reluctant to switch up the Bill's offense, and who can blame him for not wanting to give up what could be its greatest strength, the passing game.  But when other teams take away the route progressions the Bills use, it's necessary to go to alternatives.  Something will be open and it's up to Allen and Daboll to find it. 

UJ, they passed 50 times in week 1. They had a split of 35 to 30 pass to run in week 2.  I think that’s a change bud.

 

it’s more so of mechanics.  He fell back into old habits because defensive coordinators have shifted coverages to cover up his easy passes from last year.  Now we adjust from there.  I’m sure McD will ensure Daboll adapts.  Bad coaches coach stubborn like Wrex because they aren’t skilled enough to adapt.  Daboll will and Allen will come back to form.

Edited September 22, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Brown coming in for Williams soon?

[LeGOATski]

I don't think he needs to correct his feet or "platform." I think that's the low-hanging fruit people go for.

 

Josh has trained the last 2 offseasons to improve his accuracy specifically when throwing off platform. It's all about the hips, not the feet.

 

And his struggles are mostly mental, IMO. Like Josh himself said, he needs to come off his first read quicker. Pittsburgh and Miami secondaries were able to hold his gaze a bit. It's not about having talent in the secondary, but just scheming it up right, like we saw in the breakdown of the Pitt defense.

 

Jack Del Rio is another decent coordinator, but I'm not sure he'll do the same things Pitt and Miami did. We'll see. If he simply tries to pressure Allen without adequately disguising the coverage, Allen will eat them up.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I don't think he needs to correct his feet or "platform." I think that's the low-hanging fruit people go for.

 

Josh has trained the last 2 offseasons to improve his accuracy specifically when throwing off platform. It's all about the hips, not the feet.

 

.

 

I disagree. Because while Josh has made some terrific plays on the move and without being able to set his feet perfectly in his career - especially last year - they are generally out of the pocket plays. His footwork issues at the moment are in the pocket (and it isn't a coincidence that they are the plays leading to misses.  It isn't a big issue but he needs to tidy it up.

[Simon]

He doesn't trust his protection and he's playing with one eye on the defensive front and is unwilling to step into his throws.

[LeGOATski]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree. Because while Josh has made some terrific plays on the move and without being able to set his feet perfectly in his career - especially last year - they are generally out of the pocket plays. His footwork issues at the moment are in the pocket (and it isn't a coincidence that they are the plays leading to misses.  It isn't a big issue but he needs to tidy it up.

It's a product of the defensive coverage and the route concepts they're running. Josh isn't focused on tidying up his mechanics right now. He fixes the mental part and everything will be peaches and cream.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

I wonder how Joe B is doing this without all-22 film on the U.S. version of Game Pass. If he's using the international version, he's effectively advertising to the NFL that he's accessing the content illegally, which is interesting.

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree with most of Joe's breakdown.

2 questions.

 

Do you agree with Joe's assessment of that deep throw to Diggs (41y catch 11:58 into 4th quarter)? He says it was purposely short and he trusted Diggs. I watched it couple of times and it still seems to me that longer throw would be safe completion. Joe might be right tho.

 

Also, after rewatch, do you still think he was better in 1st half? I am not able to see subtle stuff as his footwork, so I am judging by bad and good plays mostly, and it seems pretty close to me.

 

In 1st half, he had high uncatchable throws to Diggs and Singletary, short INT-worthy throw to Diggs, one more throw touched by Miami defender and INT (although I don't think this was a bad throw, it was into tight window and it was just great play by Howard). On the other hand, he had two amazing throws to Sanders and Diggs on the second TD and couple of really smart throwaways.

 

In 2nd half, he missed open Sanders and Diggs, threw ugly back foot throw to Knox (which could've been intercepted if not for smart Knox play), late/slow throw to McKenzie almost intercepted and then deep throw to Diggs discussed above. On the other hand, he had two amazing throws to Diggs and Knox on the third TD.

 

Overall, his performance seemed pretty equal to me in both halves.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

2 questions.

 

Do you agree with Joe's assessment of that deep throw to Diggs (41y catch 11:58 into 4th quarter)? He says it was purposely short and he trusted Diggs. I watched it couple of times and it still seems to me that longer throw would be safe completion. Joe might be right tho.

 

Also, after rewatch, do you still think he was better in 1st half? I am not able to see subtle stuff as his footwork, so I am judging by bad and good plays mostly, and it seems pretty close to me.

 

In 1st half, he had high uncatchable throws to Diggs and Singletary, short INT-worthy throw to Diggs, one more throw touched by Miami defender and INT (although I don't think this was a bad throw, it was into tight window and it was just great play by Howard). On the other hand, he had two amazing throws to Sanders and Diggs on the second TD and couple of really smart throwaways.

 

In 2nd half, he missed open Sanders and Diggs, threw ugly back foot throw to Knox (which could've been intercepted if not for smart Knox play), late/slow throw to McKenzie almost intercepted and then deep throw to Diggs discussed above. On the other hand, he had two amazing throws to Diggs and Knox on the third TD.

 

Overall, his performance seemed pretty equal to me in both halves.

 

I think he was better 2nd half not first half. His feet settled down a bit after half time. Interestingly Josh said in his presser that they "got back to some stuff we are more comfortable with" after half time and he definitely looked less frantic to me. Both feet and arm mechanics. 

 

I do think he underthrew Diggs slightly on the other completion. Did he feel comfortable throwing it and trusting Diggs? Yep. But I think he ideally but that in a spot where Diggs was putting up 6.

[Bad Things]

Perhaps we were a a bit premature with all of the Jordan Palmer praise.

[No_Matter_What]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he was better 2nd half not first half. His feet settled down a bit after half time. Interestingly Josh said in his presser that they "got back to some stuff we are more comfortable with" after half time and he definitely looked less frantic to me. Both feet and arm mechanics. 

 

I do think he underthrew Diggs slightly on the other completion. Did he feel comfortable throwing it and trusting Diggs? Yep. But I think he ideally but that in a spot where Diggs was putting up 6.

Yeah I knew you said this I just wrote it incorrectly.

[Don Otreply]

It stems from lack of preseason game reps to get readjusted to game speed and coverages, not playing Josh and all the starters in a portion of every single preseason game was a very poor decision that we are seeing the results of. Live reps is the cure, that and better O line work, and maybe a little tough love. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 hours ago, Simon said:

He doesn't trust his protection and he's playing with one eye on the defensive front and is unwilling to step into his throws.

Agreed...and none of this is new.  He has always struggled even with well blocked routine throws in games where teams have been dropping 7 into coverage and getting home with a 4 man rush.  People are acting like this is something new since he signed his contract.  I dont mean it as an excuse since it's something he can improve on himself but in games where we're a little more stout up front I think you'll see the same offense as last year or a better one 

5 hours ago, Bad Things said:

Perhaps we were a a bit premature with all of the Jordan Palmer praise.

I dont think so...he has improved over last season in games where his oline can't block 4 guys...we just had two such games in a row to start the season rather than tucked somewhere in the middle so we're all panicking 🤣  seems like daboll at least adjusted the playcalling halfway through the dolphins game to compensate...the man is as stubborn as an ox

Edited September 23, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Solomon Grundy]

7 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I wonder how Joe B is doing this without all-22 film on the U.S. version of Game Pass. If he's using the international version, he's effectively advertising to the NFL that he's accessing the content illegally, which is interesting.

I wondered the same with Cover 1.