Alphas Roster Stab 3.0 (after PS game 2)

[Alphadawg7]

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - ADDITIONS 

WR/KR Stevenson - Admittedly, I am still quite skeptical we keep 7 players at WR, but they drafted Stevenson to return kicks, and he did just that and made a nice offensive play too in the first preseason game.  But I am wondering if they could successfully stash him on the PS at this point, and for that reason may tempt them to keep 7, especially given McKenzie muffed a punt in the same game.  They could cut Kumerow too, something I felt likely wouldn't happen, but dropping 2 passes this week didn't help his case.

 

DT Butler - The injury to Phillips now I think makes Butler safe.  Harrison will initially be kept so he can be put on IR with the ability to come back in season, but come week 1, Butler will be the backup to Star in the meantime.

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

OT Hart - I briefly added him to the roster just skeptical we would run with our 2 backup rookie tackles, but at this point its really hard to say what will happen at OL with the injuries.  But Hart I just think isnt worth keeping and think we will add someone available before we keep Hart.  If the injuries are no significant, I think we just roll at this point with our 2 rookies. 

 

DT Phillips - He will make the initial 53 before being moved to IR.  This thread is a roster prediction for week 1, so I left him off it as Butler will fill that reserve role behind Star come week 1 now that Phillips has another knee injury.

 

NEW TE STARTER - Hollister:  In version 1.0 I listed Hollister as the starter before quickly making an update mid week when McD gave pretty strong praise to Knox overall camp.  In 2.0, stuck with Knox.  But after watching Knox again drop a pass he easily should have caught and watching Hollister play so many snaps and make a lot of plays, I am now reverting back to that I think Hollister might surprise and start at TE.  I am in no way saying its a lock, but I have to believe the staff is frustrated to see the ball again hit the ground, and Hollister has impressed IMO since returning to the field.  

 

NOTES:

AJE:  I had him as the starter out the gate, and I feel like all he has done is validate that prediction thus far and is a near lock to start opposite Hughes week one.  That is not even a knock on Addison, its just how good AJE has looked thus far.  Addison I still expect to remain on the team and play a good amount of snaps in a rotation to keep our guys fresh and constantly bring pressure, but I am growing more and more confident by the day that AJE will be the week 1 starter.  

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and now I think we are nearing a lock for 6.  Smith and Matakevich have I think sealed their spots here and both are also very good on special teams.  

 

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

• I still think it seems to be a stretch we keep 7 WR's, so that would open a spot up if we keep 6 only...but then who is the odd man out, Kumerow or Stevenson?  Both have a made a strong case to make the roster.  I think Stevenson is trending up hard, and Kumerow stock might be a little down after dropping a couple passes this week.  He did make up for it with some nice plays too, but the margin of error to make this final roster is razor thin.  McKenzie muffing that punt actually hurt Kumerow more than it did McKenzie as his role on the offense is secure, but it opened up the chance for Stevenson to challenge again for KR/PR duties and a roster spot.  
• A trade of Addison would open a spot, but I still dont think they intend on doing that.  He is worth more to our SB run than we will get back in a trade at this point.  He likely backs up AJE but will see plenty of reps in rotation still.  And there just isnt any financial incentive either, so I think given we need to throw all we can at Mahomes, Addison will be here this season.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[LabattBlue]

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

Edited August 22, 2021 by BTB

[jkeerie]

2 minutes ago, BTB said:

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

If they're playing better than the vets as backups you keep them and cut the vets.

[gonzo1105]

Yea I mean I don’t disagree with most of this. I could honestly see 2 TEs making it in Knox and Hollister and letting Sweeney go to keep Johnson as another DE or to keep Stevenson as a 7th WR or maybe to keep an extra DB like Lewis or Wildgoose

Edited August 22, 2021 by gonzo1105

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, jkeerie said:

If they're playing better than the vets as backups you keep them and cut the vets.

Doesn’t mean they should be key backups on the team, it just means the OT vets that were signed...suck.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yea I mean I don’t disagree with most of this. I could honestly see 2 TEs making it in Knox and Hollister and letting Sweeney go to keep Johnson as another DE or to keep Stevenson as a 7th WR. 

 

Yeah, Sweeney isnt locked in by any means, but the staff and team really seem to just love this guy and hes done well when on the field.  But the one thing working against him is that Gilliam is versatile enough to where he could be an emergency TE 3.  In the past we have kept 3 TE's and a FB though.  

[jkeerie]

1 minute ago, BTB said:

Doesn’t mean they should be key backups on the team, it just means the OT vets that were signed...suck.  

Then what Vets would you bring in that are available?  With the dearth of talented olinemen in the NFL, there isn't exactly a plethora of potential starters out there.   The rooks will be fine.  They've looked well in preseason.  There's a reason why they were drafted.  You develop young players to be the future starters on your team.

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, BTB said:

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

 

This is how I felt too in version 2.0, but Hart had another poor showing again I felt in game 2 and nearly gave up a safety when he gave up a sack near the goal line.  I thought he needed to at least have a solid performance to have a chance to be a back up tackle here.

 

With the report that Brown and Doyle injuries dont seem serious, I just think Harts chances have run out.  However, that doesn't mean we wont add one once cuts start happening though, which is obviously also still a possibility

[GunnerBill]

Knox is the starter. I am not sure he should be but I don't even think it is a competition in their eyes. Both will get enough action but the regime is all in on Dawson. 

[gonzo1105]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, Sweeney isnt locked in by any means, but the staff and team really seem to just love this guy and hes done well when on the field.  But the one thing working against him is that Gilliam is versatile enough to where he could be an emergency TE 3.  In the past we have kept 3 TE's and a FB though.  

I get that and my thought process is a lot like yours. Sweeney can’t stay healthy(heart issue, now this years injury). Gilliam can play 3rd TE like he did last year, and he doesn’t provide STs value like Johnson, Stevenson, or one of the DBs.

 

In addition the Bills go a lot of 10 and 11 personnel and I don’t expect that to change a lot this year making a 3rd TE with injury history and no STs value very vulnerable. Spencer Brown can come in on short yardage 3rd TE situation with Gilliam at FB. People must remember Brown is a converted former TE as well so he could catch in goal line situations. Just food for thought

[LabattBlue]

6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Then what Vets would you bring in that are available?  With the dearth of talented olinemen in the NFL, there isn't exactly a plethora of potential starters out there.   The rooks will be fine.  They've looked well in preseason.  There's a reason why they were drafted.  You develop young players to be the future starters on your team.

 

All depends on how final cuts go.  Up to Beane and his staff to see if there is someone cut or who could be traded for that would be an upgrade over Hart, Brown and Doyle.  

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, BTB said:

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

 

Yea I agree. Still think they will be in the market for a vet OT at cutdowns but it depends what Alpha is predicting. I take it as the 53 when we cut down. Not the 53 for opening day. 

[SCBills]

Great projection.  

Can’t argue too much.   Would like to see a vet corner added, but with (what should be) a much improved Front 7, and McDermott as our HC, I’ll pretty much trust him always in regards to the secondary.  
 

I think Hollister has shown enough to cool the jets on Ertz, if that was ever a thing to begin with.  
 

IMO, the last roster spot comes down to Sweeney vs D Johnson vs T Jones.  
 

Id carry 7 WRs… Neither Kumerow, nor Stevenson, are making it to the PS, and we saw what happened last year down the stretch to our receiving unit with being worn down/injured… now add another game to the season. 

[jav]

Taiwan Jones and Tommy Doyle cut. Doyle to PS. That's how we keep Sweeney and Bam Johnson.

[Reader]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I agree. Still think they will be in the market for a vet OT at cutdowns but it depends what Alpha is predicting. I take it as the 53 when we cut down. Not the 53 for opening day. 

 

I wonder what the chances are that they would slide Ford over to T and use Ike as guard if Williams or Dawkins gets injured.

[Rocky Landing]

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[vincec]

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

I really haven’t seen anything from Brieda that would lead me to believe that they would cut a core ST player for him. Same with Obada WRT Johnson.

[Jeff1954]

Special teams will complicate the end of the roster but, without them, Cam Lewis may well be in front of Siran Neal. Neal’s tackling is a worry.

[Victory Formation]

I’m hoping that we can replace Breida somewhere down the line. Singletary is by far our best back and Moss is pretty decent as well, but I’m not high on Breida.

 

I find the situation we’re facing at TE/WR to be a curious one. Obviously I would like us to keep both Kumerow and Stevenson but I’m concerned about our depth at TE. Neither Knox nor Hollister are premier TEs, but they’re both really decent. Any depth we have behind them is nonexistent though. I think instead of keeping 11 players on DL, we may keep 10. Keep 7 at WR, keep 3 at TE and keep Gilliam at FB. Both Boogie and Rousseau can play not only DE but 3T as well, as can Obada, so we may not need as much depth at DT as we think. I know FB and TE aren’t glamorous positions but I think these players earn their stead in goal line and short yardage positions and against teams with fierce pass rushes as extra in-line blockers and pass protectors.

 

Ultimately I think you have a great list though, but the one thing you cannot foresee is the waiver wire. We may add a few guys to the 53 man roster and it’s almost a given that we’ll see some new faces on the PS. Is a trade out of the question?

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Reader said:

 

I wonder what the chances are that they would slide Ford over to T and use Ike as guard if Williams or Dawkins gets injured.

 

I think they would go to Spencer Brown first but I think Ford to tackle would be the next option for me personally. 

31 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

 

Taiwan has sat both games. They played Wallace week 1, the competition was won and then they sat him. Some folks don't like the idea Jones is on the team, I don't much like the idea Addison is, but the guys they have been sitting are on the roster IMO.

[AmishRifle]

I like it.  Personally, with the way you’ve laid it out, I would likely add an additional secondary player, preferably CB, and likely drop a WR to cap you at 6 for that spot.  It’s either that or drop Breida which I don’t think is an option.  I don’t envy our GM’s choices coming up.  Hopefully he uses some of that Warlock sorcery and rolls some good bones!

[ColoradoBills]

Beane and McDermott got to figure a way to use the IR and PS rules again this year.  Keep the young guys on the main roster and

use call ups for depth if needed that bad because of injuries.  This way you don't expose the young guys who would get picked up.

 

It a good chance Sweeney starts on IR.  In the meantime a TE will be on the PS to call up if needed.

Hell Nate Becker had a good snag in the Bears game and has been on the roster for 2 years.  He will probably be on PS again.

 

Gilliam was taking a lot of snaps alone in the backfield.  He does make Breida expendable.  Breida probably won't get picked up so he can

go to PS too.  If he gets picked up Williams is there.

 

That gives you 7 WRs and Taiwan Jones if he is needed that badly.  If Jones is not kept then a vet OT could be signed.

 

Have to figure out some moves like this for the D too.  

 

 

 

 

 

[berg1029]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

 

I suspect that unless Breida really impresses in preseason game 3, he's most likely to be cut in favor of Taiwan.  So if Singletary/Moss go down, we will have Gilliam or Taiwan to tote the ball in a pinch plus whatever RB (if any) that ends up on the practice squad.  Breida hasn't looked great and he only has a (relatively) small guaranteed amount https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/03/29/contract-details-buffalo-bills-matt-breida/

 

DJ I'm not so sure about.  I think a lot of the players like him based on the videos the Bills have put out, so I'd be surprised if they don't find a way to keep him for the sake of team chemistry.  I'm just not sure how!

 

edit:  it's really crazy how talented this team is.. from top to bottom.  i suspect whoever the bills cut with their final cuts will be picked up elsewhere

Edited August 22, 2021 by berg1029

[jkeerie]

With all the DEs going down in preseason, if the Bills cut any of their top 7, they will be immediately snatched up.

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - ADDITIONS 

WR/KR Stevenson - Admittedly, I am still quite skeptical we keep 7 players at WR, but they drafted Stevenson to return kicks, and he did just that and made a nice offensive play too in the first preseason game.  But I am wondering if they could successfully stash him on the PS at this point, and for that reason may tempt them to keep 7, especially given McKenzie muffed a punt in the same game.  They could cut Kumerow too, something I felt likely wouldn't happen, but dropping 2 passes this week didn't help his case.

 

DT Butler - The injury to Phillips now I think makes Butler safe.  Harrison will initially be kept so he can be put on IR with the ability to come back in season, but come week 1, Butler will be the backup to Star in the meantime.

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

OT Hart - I briefly added him to the roster just skeptical we would run with our 2 backup rookie tackles, but at this point its really hard to say what will happen at OL with the injuries.  But Hart I just think isnt worth keeping and think we will add someone available before we keep Hart.  If the injuries are no significant, I think we just roll at this point with our 2 rookies. 

 

DT Phillips - He will make the initial 53 before being moved to IR.  This thread is a roster prediction for week 1, so I left him off it as Butler will fill that reserve role behind Star come week 1 now that Phillips has another knee injury.

 

NEW TE STARTER - Hollister:  In version 1.0 I listed Hollister as the starter before quickly making an update mid week when McD gave pretty strong praise to Knox overall camp.  In 2.0, stuck with Knox.  But after watching Knox again drop a pass he easily should have caught and watching Hollister play so many snaps and make a lot of plays, I am now reverting back to that I think Hollister might surprise and start at TE.  I am in no way saying its a lock, but I have to believe the staff is frustrated to see the ball again hit the ground, and Hollister has impressed IMO since returning to the field.  

 

NOTES:

AJE:  I had him as the starter out the gate, and I feel like all he has done is validate that prediction thus far and is a near lock to start opposite Hughes week one.  That is not even a knock on Addison, its just how good AJE has looked thus far.  Addison I still expect to remain on the team and play a good amount of snaps in a rotation to keep our guys fresh and constantly bring pressure, but I am growing more and more confident by the day that AJE will be the week 1 starter.  

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and now I think we are nearing a lock for 6.  Smith and Matakevich have I think sealed their spots here and both are also very good on special teams.  

 

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

• I still think it seems to be a stretch we keep 7 WR's, so that would open a spot up if we keep 6 only...but then who is the odd man out, Kumerow or Stevenson?  Both have a made a strong case to make the roster.  I think Stevenson is trending up hard, and Kumerow stock might be a little down after dropping a couple passes this week.  He did make up for it with some nice plays too, but the margin of error to make this final roster is razor thin.  McKenzie muffing that punt actually hurt Kumerow more than it did McKenzie as his role on the offense is secure, but it opened up the chance for Stevenson to challenge again for KR/PR duties and a roster spot.  
• A trade of Addison would open a spot, but I still dont think they intend on doing that.  He is worth more to our SB run than we will get back in a trade at this point.  He likely backs up AJE but will see plenty of reps in rotation still.  And there just isnt any financial incentive either, so I think given we need to throw all we can at Mahomes, Addison will be here this season.

Another great job Alpha!

 

Mostly agree, but few things I see differently and a couple comments:

 

1. Knox vs Hollister:  both these guys will get playing time, but still think Knox is thr starter.  I think/hopeful, he can put it all together this season.  And I believe the staff is looking at his upside and work ethic, and will keep him as the starter barring injury

 

2. Harrison: way too early, but sounds like he has a chance to avoid the IR to start the season.  Totally depends on this being a 2-4 week injury, or 4+.  I don't see us dressing 5 DTs during gameday, especially week 1, anyhow.  So think he avoids IR and has a chance to play week 1.

 

3.  Which would mean we have 1 less roster spot, and to me it comes down to Dodson vs Kumerow vs Speedy.  I've been encouraged by Speedy all offseason and think he eventually takes over our return duties (think he is safe, barring his injury status).  I have a difficult time making this call, but for now, think Dodson would be the odd man out.  Better chance he makes it to the PS or Tyrell Adams, who has also been very good.

 

Other comments:

1. Agree with you that Hamlin has been stepping up, glad to see him playing well.  Josh Thomas as well, who I think they will try sneaking onto their PS while Hamlin makes the 53.

 

2. Wildgoose has the skill set that our secondary covers, and played much better week 2.  He will hopefully make it onto the PS, but not surprised if they want to keep him on the 53.

 

3.  Tackle depth, I'm less worried than some, and agree that Hart doesn't deserve to stick around.  Brown looks like a future RT starter and Doyle has flashed some, but has potential.  I think we would sign a veteran if one of Dawkins, Williams or Brown were to be out for extended time.

 

 

Great job by Beane building a top flight roster, along with high quality depth.  I'll predict that 3 of our cuts get signed to other 53 man rosters, which would be a considerable amount.

[billybrew1]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - ADDITIONS 

WR/KR Stevenson - Admittedly, I am still quite skeptical we keep 7 players at WR, but they drafted Stevenson to return kicks, and he did just that and made a nice offensive play too in the first preseason game.  But I am wondering if they could successfully stash him on the PS at this point, and for that reason may tempt them to keep 7, especially given McKenzie muffed a punt in the same game.  They could cut Kumerow too, something I felt likely wouldn't happen, but dropping 2 passes this week didn't help his case.

 

DT Butler - The injury to Phillips now I think makes Butler safe.  Harrison will initially be kept so he can be put on IR with the ability to come back in season, but come week 1, Butler will be the backup to Star in the meantime.

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

OT Hart - I briefly added him to the roster just skeptical we would run with our 2 backup rookie tackles, but at this point its really hard to say what will happen at OL with the injuries.  But Hart I just think isnt worth keeping and think we will add someone available before we keep Hart.  If the injuries are no significant, I think we just roll at this point with our 2 rookies. 

 

DT Phillips - He will make the initial 53 before being moved to IR.  This thread is a roster prediction for week 1, so I left him off it as Butler will fill that reserve role behind Star come week 1 now that Phillips has another knee injury.

 

NEW TE STARTER - Hollister:  In version 1.0 I listed Hollister as the starter before quickly making an update mid week when McD gave pretty strong praise to Knox overall camp.  In 2.0, stuck with Knox.  But after watching Knox again drop a pass he easily should have caught and watching Hollister play so many snaps and make a lot of plays, I am now reverting back to that I think Hollister might surprise and start at TE.  I am in no way saying its a lock, but I have to believe the staff is frustrated to see the ball again hit the ground, and Hollister has impressed IMO since returning to the field.  

 

NOTES:

AJE:  I had him as the starter out the gate, and I feel like all he has done is validate that prediction thus far and is a near lock to start opposite Hughes week one.  That is not even a knock on Addison, its just how good AJE has looked thus far.  Addison I still expect to remain on the team and play a good amount of snaps in a rotation to keep our guys fresh and constantly bring pressure, but I am growing more and more confident by the day that AJE will be the week 1 starter.  

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and now I think we are nearing a lock for 6.  Smith and Matakevich have I think sealed their spots here and both are also very good on special teams.  

 

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

• I still think it seems to be a stretch we keep 7 WR's, so that would open a spot up if we keep 6 only...but then who is the odd man out, Kumerow or Stevenson?  Both have a made a strong case to make the roster.  I think Stevenson is trending up hard, and Kumerow stock might be a little down after dropping a couple passes this week.  He did make up for it with some nice plays too, but the margin of error to make this final roster is razor thin.  McKenzie muffing that punt actually hurt Kumerow more than it did McKenzie as his role on the offense is secure, but it opened up the chance for Stevenson to challenge again for KR/PR duties and a roster spot.  
• A trade of Addison would open a spot, but I still dont think they intend on doing that.  He is worth more to our SB run than we will get back in a trade at this point.  He likely backs up AJE but will see plenty of reps in rotation still.  And there just isnt any financial incentive either, so I think given we need to throw all we can at Mahomes, Addison will be here this season.

I think Kumerow is out now. Stevenson is eventually going to be the returner. So, that's one spot. I have Daryl DJ Johnson over Eve right now as DJ is tearing it up at DE, plays a lot of STs and is younger and cheaper. 

That's all I know....

[billybrew1]

Ertz!

 

He is going to finish our roster (b4 the trade deadline.)

[djp14150]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - ADDITIONS 

WR/KR Stevenson - Admittedly, I am still quite skeptical we keep 7 players at WR, but they drafted Stevenson to return kicks, and he did just that and made a nice offensive play too in the first preseason game.  But I am wondering if they could successfully stash him on the PS at this point, and for that reason may tempt them to keep 7, especially given McKenzie muffed a punt in the same game.  They could cut Kumerow too, something I felt likely wouldn't happen, but dropping 2 passes this week didn't help his case.

 

DT Butler - The injury to Phillips now I think makes Butler safe.  Harrison will initially be kept so he can be put on IR with the ability to come back in season, but come week 1, Butler will be the backup to Star in the meantime.

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

OT Hart - I briefly added him to the roster just skeptical we would run with our 2 backup rookie tackles, but at this point its really hard to say what will happen at OL with the injuries.  But Hart I just think isnt worth keeping and think we will add someone available before we keep Hart.  If the injuries are no significant, I think we just roll at this point with our 2 rookies. 

 

DT Phillips - He will make the initial 53 before being moved to IR.  This thread is a roster prediction for week 1, so I left him off it as Butler will fill that reserve role behind Star come week 1 now that Phillips has another knee injury.

 

NEW TE STARTER - Hollister:  In version 1.0 I listed Hollister as the starter before quickly making an update mid week when McD gave pretty strong praise to Knox overall camp.  In 2.0, stuck with Knox.  But after watching Knox again drop a pass he easily should have caught and watching Hollister play so many snaps and make a lot of plays, I am now reverting back to that I think Hollister might surprise and start at TE.  I am in no way saying its a lock, but I have to believe the staff is frustrated to see the ball again hit the ground, and Hollister has impressed IMO since returning to the field.  

 

NOTES:

AJE:  I had him as the starter out the gate, and I feel like all he has done is validate that prediction thus far and is a near lock to start opposite Hughes week one.  That is not even a knock on Addison, its just how good AJE has looked thus far.  Addison I still expect to remain on the team and play a good amount of snaps in a rotation to keep our guys fresh and constantly bring pressure, but I am growing more and more confident by the day that AJE will be the week 1 starter.  

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and now I think we are nearing a lock for 6.  Smith and Matakevich have I think sealed their spots here and both are also very good on special teams.  

 

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

• I still think it seems to be a stretch we keep 7 WR's, so that would open a spot up if we keep 6 only...but then who is the odd man out, Kumerow or Stevenson?  Both have a made a strong case to make the roster.  I think Stevenson is trending up hard, and Kumerow stock might be a little down after dropping a couple passes this week.  He did make up for it with some nice plays too, but the margin of error to make this final roster is razor thin.  McKenzie muffing that punt actually hurt Kumerow more than it did McKenzie as his role on the offense is secure, but it opened up the chance for Stevenson to challenge again for KR/PR duties and a roster spot.  
• A trade of Addison would open a spot, but I still dont think they intend on doing that.  He is worth more to our SB run than we will get back in a trade at this point.  He likely backs up AJE but will see plenty of reps in rotation still.  And there just isnt any financial incentive either, so I think given we need to throw all we can at Mahomes, Addison will be here this season.

 

I look at the roster as

 

22 offense 2 QB 4 RB, 3 TE , 5  WR, 8 OL, 

22  defense. 6 CB, 3 S, 5 LB, 4 DE, 4 DT, 

4 special teams K P LS  returner

5 depth/ young players you need either due to injuries or they won’t clear waivers. 2 of them are recent draft picks, 2 are the best ones left on the roster that didn’t earn one of the spots. 2 are offense, 2 defense, 1 has STs role.

 

with Stephensons returning for TD he likely earned  the return job or one of the extra spots.

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

 

So what two players are you cutting then to make room based on the rest of the 53?  Its a lot easier to say they keep them than it is to actually go cut 2 more players to make room for them.  I dont disagree they have legit shot at roster, but I am having trouble cutting somewhere else to make the room.

[hondo in seattle]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

 

 

Why are you on first name basis with the OL?  You hang out with these guys?

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Another great job Alpha!

 

Mostly agree, but few things I see differently and a couple comments:

 

1. Knox vs Hollister:  both these guys will get playing time, but still think Knox is thr starter.  I think/hopeful, he can put it all together this season.  And I believe the staff is looking at his upside and work ethic, and will keep him as the starter barring injury

 

Agree they both get a lot of snaps this year between the two, regardless who starts.

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

2. Harrison: way too early, but sounds like he has a chance to avoid the IR to start the season.  Totally depends on this being a 2-4 week injury, or 4+.  I don't see us dressing 5 DTs during gameday, especially week 1, anyhow.  So think he avoids IR and has a chance to play week 1.

 

Interesting, thanks for the update.  When I wrote it, sounded like it might linger into the season. 

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

3.  Which would mean we have 1 less roster spot, and to me it comes down to Dodson vs Kumerow vs Speedy.  I've been encouraged by Speedy all offseason and think he eventually takes over our return duties (think he is safe, barring his injury status).  I have a difficult time making this call, but for now, think Dodson would be the odd man out.  Better chance he makes it to the PS or Tyrell Adams, who has also been very good.

 

Other comments:

1. Agree with you that Hamlin has been stepping up, glad to see him playing well.  Josh Thomas as well, who I think they will try sneaking onto their PS while Hamlin makes the 53.

 

Agree on the safeties

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

2. Wildgoose has the skill set that our secondary covers, and played much better week 2.  He will hopefully make it onto the PS, but not surprised if they want to keep him on the 53.

 

I originally had him on my 53, and wanted to put him back on this one.  But struggled where to find the room.  But overall, I think he has a real shot at the final 53

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

3.  Tackle depth, I'm less worried than some, and agree that Hart doesn't deserve to stick around.  Brown looks like a future RT starter and Doyle has flashed some, but has potential.  I think we would sign a veteran if one of Dawkins, Williams or Brown were to be out for extended time.

 

 

Great job by Beane building a top flight roster, along with high quality depth.  I'll predict that 3 of our cuts get signed to other 53 man rosters, which would be a considerable amount.

 

Brown I think is looking quite promising too.  Beane has become the best GM in the NFL for me.  I get he wont get the recognition without a SB trophy, but he is hands down top 3 at the very least.

2 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

I think Kumerow is out now. Stevenson is eventually going to be the returner. So, that's one spot. I have Daryl DJ Johnson over Eve right now as DJ is tearing it up at DE, plays a lot of STs and is younger and cheaper. 

That's all I know....

 

I think Kumerow could potentially be a surprise cut at this point.  I am not calling it, and I do still have him on the roster, but I think he is more cuttable than some think.  McKenzie fumble...Stevenson return...and Kumerow dropping 2 passes all in the same game actually all worked against him.  If Stevenson secures a spot, good chance we only keep 6 and Kumerow would be the odd man out.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - ADDITIONS 

WR/KR Stevenson - Admittedly, I am still quite skeptical we keep 7 players at WR, but they drafted Stevenson to return kicks, and he did just that and made a nice offensive play too in the first preseason game.  But I am wondering if they could successfully stash him on the PS at this point, and for that reason may tempt them to keep 7, especially given McKenzie muffed a punt in the same game.  They could cut Kumerow too, something I felt likely wouldn't happen, but dropping 2 passes this week didn't help his case.

 

DT Butler - The injury to Phillips now I think makes Butler safe.  Harrison will initially be kept so he can be put on IR with the ability to come back in season, but come week 1, Butler will be the backup to Star in the meantime.

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

OT Hart - I briefly added him to the roster just skeptical we would run with our 2 backup rookie tackles, but at this point its really hard to say what will happen at OL with the injuries.  But Hart I just think isnt worth keeping and think we will add someone available before we keep Hart.  If the injuries are no significant, I think we just roll at this point with our 2 rookies. 

 

DT Phillips - He will make the initial 53 before being moved to IR.  This thread is a roster prediction for week 1, so I left him off it as Butler will fill that reserve role behind Star come week 1 now that Phillips has another knee injury.

 

NEW TE STARTER - Hollister:  In version 1.0 I listed Hollister as the starter before quickly making an update mid week when McD gave pretty strong praise to Knox overall camp.  In 2.0, stuck with Knox.  But after watching Knox again drop a pass he easily should have caught and watching Hollister play so many snaps and make a lot of plays, I am now reverting back to that I think Hollister might surprise and start at TE.  I am in no way saying its a lock, but I have to believe the staff is frustrated to see the ball again hit the ground, and Hollister has impressed IMO since returning to the field.  

 

NOTES:

AJE:  I had him as the starter out the gate, and I feel like all he has done is validate that prediction thus far and is a near lock to start opposite Hughes week one.  That is not even a knock on Addison, its just how good AJE has looked thus far.  Addison I still expect to remain on the team and play a good amount of snaps in a rotation to keep our guys fresh and constantly bring pressure, but I am growing more and more confident by the day that AJE will be the week 1 starter.  

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and now I think we are nearing a lock for 6.  Smith and Matakevich have I think sealed their spots here and both are also very good on special teams.  

 

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

• I still think it seems to be a stretch we keep 7 WR's, so that would open a spot up if we keep 6 only...but then who is the odd man out, Kumerow or Stevenson?  Both have a made a strong case to make the roster.  I think Stevenson is trending up hard, and Kumerow stock might be a little down after dropping a couple passes this week.  He did make up for it with some nice plays too, but the margin of error to make this final roster is razor thin.  McKenzie muffing that punt actually hurt Kumerow more than it did McKenzie as his role on the offense is secure, but it opened up the chance for Stevenson to challenge again for KR/PR duties and a roster spot.  
• A trade of Addison would open a spot, but I still dont think they intend on doing that.  He is worth more to our SB run than we will get back in a trade at this point.  He likely backs up AJE but will see plenty of reps in rotation still.  And there just isnt any financial incentive either, so I think given we need to throw all we can at Mahomes, Addison will be here this season.

 

So are you saying Phillips is on the 53, then gets moved to IR and Butler also makes the initial 53??

 

No problem with doing any of that but if they both make the final 53 by my count you now have 26 on defense and a total of 54.  I counted 3 times.

 

Or is Butler one of these who gets added after the initial 53?  Does he have enough years in the league to not be subject to waivers?  I think he does??

[Rocky Landing]

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So what two players are you cutting then to make room based on the rest of the 53?  Its a lot easier to say they keep them than it is to actually go cut 2 more players to make room for them.  I dont disagree they have legit shot at roster, but I am having trouble cutting somewhere else to make the room.

Well, I don't think they keep seven WRs. I also don't think that Stevenson has solidified his position on the roster by his TD return (for reasons that I outlined on page 4 of Gunner's Good Night/Bad Night thread). But, even if he has, that might be one of the tough cuts to be made. I think it comes down to Kumerow vs. Stevenson there. I also think Doyle goes to the PS, where I think he will be perfectly safe. I know they generally roll with nine O-linesmen. But they also generally roll with six WRs. If they keep seven WRs, I don't think it will be at the expense of special teams. Breida is also not a lock, IMO. And, I say that not simply on the strength of his preseason performance, but from TC reports, as well.

 

On Defense, I have argued that they keep seven DEs, and the odd man out could be Addison. I do agree with Gunner's assessment that the players who have sat are basically locks, but I'm not sure that necessarily applies to Addison. Really, starters like Jerry, and Tre don't need to be in the preseason games because you don't want to put them at risk, but also there is nothing there to evaluate. Similarly, there is no reason to play Addison, even if he is on the bubble. They know exactly what they have in him.

 

Also on defense, if they plan to continue to play a nickel defense (and I haven't seen, or heard anything to suggest otherwise) I'm not sure they need to carry six LBs. Matekevich is very likely to make the roster for the same reason Johnson is-- he's a core ST standout, and also decent depth at his position. (I wish the same could be said for Jones...)

 

One last thought: This season the Bills have moved on from Andre Roberts. PFR had him ranked as the #1 return specialist in 2020. We benefitted greatly, not just from the good field position that afforded us, but also from high-level ST play in general. With the loss of Roberts, and a worrisome competition between Lil Dirty, and Stevenson to replace him, how much more should McD, and Beane be willing to dismantle what was a top-shelf unit last season?

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, Sweeney isnt locked in by any means, but the staff and team really seem to just love this guy and hes done well when on the field.  But the one thing working against him is that Gilliam is versatile enough to where he could be an emergency TE 3.  In the past we have kept 3 TE's and a FB though.  

That's exactly what McD should do. Just IR Sweeney and designate Gilliam as TE3. This can free up an extra OL spot. Every other position I agree with.

[Kelly the Dog]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Knox is the starter. I am not sure he should be but I don't even think it is a competition in their eyes. Both will get enough action but the regime is all in on Dawson. 

It’s funny, but if Knox caught the easy ones he drops and didn’t catch the equal number of balls he really shouldn’t catch, fans would have a completely different opinion of him. 

[Da webster guy]

5 hours ago, vincec said:

I really haven’t seen anything from Brieda that would lead me to believe that they would cut a core ST player for him. Same with Obada WRT Johnson.

 

Agreed.  Brieda seems like one of those guys who is high character, well liked, and fast but never seems to standout these days.   Not diving for the pylon and the touchdown there vs Chicago was not cool either.  Get the TD man, even if it means that linebacker is gonna cream you.   The whole concept of a "home run hitter" running back is kind of silly if you ask me.   

The two teams that went to the bowl last year didn't have one, and I can't think of one outside of Derrick Henry in all the playoffs last year.  We scored the 2nd most points per game in the league, I think we can do just fine with Motor and Zach running the rock.

[Kelly the Dog]

3 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Agreed.  Brieda seems like one of those guys who is high character, well liked, and fast but never seems to standout these days.   Not diving for the pylon and the touchdown there vs Chicago was not cool either.  Get the TD man, even if it means that linebacker is gonna cream you.   The whole concept of a "home run hitter" running back is kind of silly if you ask me.   

The two teams that went to the bowl last year didn't have one, and I can't think of one outside of Derrick Henry in all the playoffs last year.  We scored the 2nd most points per game in the league, I think we can do just fine with Motor and Zach running the rock.

When I watched the Breida play I thought he just assumed he would beat the defender to the end zone. He miscalculated and stepped out, which was a mistake. But guys like him often just assume they will run by people which they usually do. I think a lot of people will be pleasantly surprised by how Daboll uses Breida, the same way he uses McKittrick. Breida is super fast. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So are you saying Phillips is on the 53, then gets moved to IR and Butler also makes the initial 53??

 

No problem with doing any of that but if they both make the final 53 by my count you now have 26 on defense and a total of 54.  I counted 3 times.

 

Or is Butler one of these who gets added after the initial 53?  Does he have enough years in the league to not be subject to waivers?  I think he does??

 

Could be a cut elsewhere, maybe Sweeney or something...then add him back once they move Phillips to IR.  But when I wrote this, it sounded like Phillips might be out into the season...if its more likely he will be ready week 1, then I have him still making it over Butler.  So just depends when more is known about his timeline.  

[Reader]

34 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

When I watched the Breida play I thought he just assumed he would beat the defender to the end zone. He miscalculated and stepped out, which was a mistake. But guys like him often just assume they will run by people which they usually do. I think a lot of people will be pleasantly surprised by how Daboll uses Breida, the same way he uses McKittrick. Breida is super fast. 

 

To add to that we really could have used a player like him during the Chiefs game. I think having speed in the backfield will really help us if teams dare us to beat them with the short passing game, draws, etc...

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So what two players are you cutting then to make room based on the rest of the 53?  Its a lot easier to say they keep them than it is to actually go cut 2 more players to make room for them.  I dont disagree they have legit shot at roster, but I am having trouble cutting somewhere else to make the room.

IIRC, the Bills last year initially cut Andre Roberts and Dean Marlowe to get down to 53.  In about 24 hours time, they put 2 players on IR, I can't remember who, and brought back Roberts and Marlowe.  I could see the Bills trying to do similar moves this year.