Preseason TNF: WFT at Pats / Eagles at Steelers

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah Josh got to play a quarter in his first preseason game and not with the 1s and still got a TD on an insane throw that he is one of the few in the NFL that can make.

I just don't want to compare the two.  The reasons they will have success, and what they need to do is so different that its not a worthwhile comparison.  Josh needed to cut down on the bad plays and continue making the crazy plays.  Jones needs to be able to push the ball down the field.  I would also say the two were at very different points in their careers at the time of the first preseason game. 

 

What are the odds that going into TC Jones has thrown more balls in competitive situations (even though Josh is older)?  He would presumably have a lot of elite camps Josh didnt.  

[starrymessenger]

24 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

 

Ya because Allen in year one was seeing the field that well his first preseason game. (Sigh) but as usual you missed the entire point.. it is very very rare for a rookie QB to come in and light it up and have a high QBR.

as for your video, let’s see how he looks after running around like that for 5 years.. so far Mobil QBs historically have a much shorter shelf life than pocket passers. (See Newton,Cam) Just because it’s the latest NFL craze doesn’t mean that will change.  

Allen is an above average pocket passer. Newton, Cam never had an arm like Allen.

[PatsFanNH]

8 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

haha i get the point that its first preseason game.  I actually dont disagree with the points you were making (i dont understand the as usual since we have had good discussion in the past), but dont compare allen to jones.  Those two are very different.

 

Plenty mobile QBs have had long careers (McNabb, Young, Cunningham).  Data says QBs are just as likely to get hurt running the ball as standing the pocket.

McNabb I never really considered mobile but he only played 4 complete seasons and was below average after 9 yrs. Young Didn’t start till 1992(When Montana left)and was done by 1999 (6 years) again his entire career 4 complete seasons played. Dang I didn’t know Cunningham was around 15 years, but again only 4 where he played every game. Of all the Mobile QBs I can think of, only John Elway and Steve Young ever won the SB before Mahomes and what all three have in common.. they were/are a pocket passer who can run.  I don’t see enough of Allen to know what he is as a QB.

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

Allen is an above average pocket passer. Newton, Cam never had an arm like Allen.

Cam Newton had a cannon for an arm coming out of college! His knock was the same as Allen’s.. his accuracy was suspect if not awful! (Newton that is, I believe the word they use for Allen was RAWtalent)But his arm strength was never the issue.. 

[P Riv]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I’ll never trust my lying eyes in preseason after I thought Peterman looked great.  
 

Hard to make judgments on accurate QBs with weak arms, when the talent level and speed isn’t that of a regular season game.  
 

Some can make it work… some can’t.  

 

Jones is Chad Pennington 2.0    He looks like the same exact player, but the major difference may show up in durability.  Pennington was smart but physically limited, though he knew exactly how to play within his limits and was very efficient.  I think that's what Jones is now and will be going forward.  

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, PatsFanNH said:

McNabb I never really considered mobile but he only played 4 complete seasons and was below average after 9 yrs. Young Didn’t start till 1992(When Montana left)and was done by 1999 (6 years) again his entire career 4 complete seasons played. Dang I didn’t know Cunningham was around 15 years, but again only 4 where he played every game. Of all the Mobile QBs I can think of, only John Elway and Steve Young ever won the SB before Mahomes and what all three have in common.. they were/are a pocket passer who can run.  I don’t see enough of Allen to know what he is as a QB.

Fair take.  The part where I feel best about Allen is his improvement in the pocket.  You probably dont have the time (its probably like 36 hours), but I had been watching all the @Cover 1 breakdowns from his rookie year through last year.  They capture a historic progression from Allen as a raw prospect to what he was last year.  Allen always had a lot on his plate, but he got better at being a QB over time (particularly this past year).  So I can appreciate that you don't quite know what he is, but from those videos I feel pretty comfortable that he will be that mobile pocket passer.  

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Jones looked solid, didn’t seem to get rattled, put the ball where he should in most cases.  They are going to play power football this season and if Jones gets in, I don’t see a real drop off from Cam, outside of running ability.  If Cam does somehow regain his old form, they could be a real tough match up to deal with. 
 

The Pats D is what is going to be the story this year, they added Judon and are getting some guys back, I think you are looking at a top 5 D again, if not top of the league.  
 

It sounds odd to say this, but they built themselves to beat the Bills.  They are strong at everything the Bills are weakest against.   Not surprisingly, the Bills built a team that emulates the most successful teams in the last few years, the Pats tried to get ahead of the league cycle again by constructing a team to stop those teams.   They are going to look to control the clock, pound the rock and rush the passer, with some good talent in the secondary.  They are not going to be fun to play. I think there is a very real chance they are a 10+ win team this year and back in real playoff contention.  If and it’s always a big IF, they can finish drives and get in the end zone early in games, that smash mouth type of game is going to be hard to deal with for a lot of teams who have built the lighter, faster D to slow down the high flying pass games.  They will be tough for the Bills with their emphasis on running and using the TEs a lot, it’s the 2 areas this team is not great at.

 

I agree with some of this.  They were a 7 win team last year and better QB play they could easily had 10 or 11 wins.

 

The issue is I think they are even less diverse this year.  It was obvious Cam lacked the arm strength later in the season and once teams started moving up and stacking the box and not fearing the pass - they really struggled to win.  They kept games close, but were not a real threat to win.  I don’t think they get the early season teams backing off - I think teams will say - you have to beat us through the air and down the field - outside.  We are stacking the line of scrimmage and the middle - good luck.

 

This year they added TEs and look to be even more of a running game team and both Cam and Mac seem to be better at short 3-5 yard throws - meaning 1 incomplete pass kills a drive.  We saw it last evening with Jones - he completed nearly 70% of his passes for a 4.6 yard average.  His couple of throws over 10 yards in the air were incomplete.

 

He looked just like he did in college - the difference - his WRs are no longer 5* recruits playing against 2-3* players and therefore instead of big gains - they are tackled at 3-4 yards. 
 

I think they struggle early with Cam, but move the ball and eventually flip to Jones and he is a significantly better passer than Cam, but they still struggle to move and they end up around 6-8 wins.  They will be good enough to beat the bottom teams with defense, but will struggle against the better teams and end up well outside the playoff picture.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Lol it’s the first preseason game! They have had like 4 padded practices.  I don’t expect Cam to improve much between now and opening day, but  Jones will and for his first live action against NFL caliber D he did pretty well with the second squad.

 

also I find it funny a Bills fan makes fun of a rookie QB rating of a 78.2 when your now superstar QB had a 66 for his rookie year. Which should tell you WBR doesn’t tell you everything. 

 

I admittedly did not watch the game, but I actually thought that Mac Jones looked meh going through the highlight real. I thought he did a lot of staring down of receivers. Going against the 1's, I think he gets torn apart. 

People aren't making fun of the QB as much as they are relishing in the potential struggle of the Pats. The last 20 years have been rough. 

[PatsFanNH]

1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:

Fair take.  The part where I feel best about Allen is his improvement in the pocket.  You probably dont have the time (its probably like 36 hours), but I had been watching all the @Cover 1 breakdowns from his rookie year through last year.  They capture a historic progression from Allen as a raw prospect to what he was last year.  Allen always had a lot on his plate, but he got better at being a QB over time (particularly this past year).  So I can appreciate that you don't quite know what he is, but from those videos I feel pretty comfortable that he will be that mobile pocket passer.  

I by no means was trying say Allen is not a very good QB.  I think a few on here took my use of his first year QBR as an insult to him.  I was just trying to point out rookie QBs rarely light it up.  I hope for Bills fans you are right about Allen as everything only time will tell. 
 

The division is Buffalos for the near future at least, I don’t expect Jones be capable of hanging with Allen for at least a full year if he ever can. (That means a full year being a starter so be more like season 3) 

[starrymessenger]

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

McNabb I never really considered mobile but he only played 4 complete seasons and was below average after 9 yrs. Young Didn’t start till 1992(When Montana left)and was done by 1999 (6 years) again his entire career 4 complete seasons played. Dang I didn’t know Cunningham was around 15 years, but again only 4 where he played every game. Of all the Mobile QBs I can think of, only John Elway and Steve Young ever won the SB before Mahomes and what all three have in common.. they were/are a pocket passer who can run.  I don’t see enough of Allen to know what he is as a QB.

Cam Newton had a cannon for an arm coming out of college! His knock was the same as Allen’s.. his accuracy was suspect if not awful! (Newton that is, I believe the word they use for Allen was RAWtalent)But his arm strength was never the issue.. 

Newton’s arm strength was not an issue before his injury. It was always well above average. His arm was never on par with Allen’s though and he was never as accomplished a passer as Allen is now. Allen is a quarterback who can run but is not a running QB by any means. He’s always looking to pass and he’s the guy most responsible for one of the NFL’s best passing Os. Elway is a much better comparable to Josh than Cam. 

[corta765]

8 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

 

Cam Newton had a cannon for an arm coming out of college! His knock was the same as Allen’s.. his accuracy was suspect if not awful! (Newton that is, I believe the word they use for Allen was RAWtalent)But his arm strength was never the issue.. 

It wasn't until his injuries in Carolina. The All or Nothing series highlighted how bad his arm got messed up. I think Cam could do pretty decent in the offense and while his arm may not be 100% what it was, if it has healed properly and has no lingering issues he should be fine. Last night I thought he looked pretty solid.

[Patrick Duffy]

20 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I think a few on here took my use of his first year QBR as an insult to him

His numbers would have been better if not for WR's having the most drops in the league that season. Never know how much better, but definitely better.

[eball]

49 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

what’s really funny is how scared Bills fans sound.  Jones could be a stud, hell he could be a dud.. all we know from preseason game one is he makes quick reads and throws the ball extremely accurate. 

 

That's what you take from this discussion? 

 

[P Riv]

24 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I admittedly did not watch the game, but I actually thought that Mac Jones looked meh going through the highlight real. I thought he did a lot of staring down of receivers. Going against the 1's, I think he gets torn apart. 

People aren't making fun of the QB as much as they are relishing in the potential struggle of the Pats. The last 20 years have been rough. 

 

Last 20?  We've been struggling with them since 1994.  If not for Jim Kelly's Bills and OJ, this series would be completely one sided:  https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=4

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, P Riv said:

 

Last 20?  We've been struggling with them since 1994.  If not for Jim Kelly's Bills and OJ, this series would be completely one sided:  https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=4

While that may be true, was not nearly as long as the Bills. What like 10 years compared to 19 or 20? lol

[PatsFanNH]

10 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

His numbers would have been better if not for WR's having the most drops in the league that season. Never know how much better, but definitely better.

Drop passes stink but happen!  But let’s say the drops were average for the team i guess it raises theQBR to mid to upper 70’s? Another thing Allen didn’t have was a good line that year.. in the 4 games I watched him play he was running for his life a lot. (At least that’s what it looked like to me)

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Drop passes stink but happen!  But let’s say the drops were average for the team i guess it raises theQBR to mid to upper 70’s? Another thing Allen didn’t have was a good line that year.. in the 4 games I watched him play he was running for his life a lot. (At least that’s what it looked like to me)

Yeah I mean it's expected rookie QBs will struggle some. I know drop passes are going to happen, but that year it was beyond too many. Like I said most in the league. Most dropped passes I think I've ever seen by Bills WRs and was the worst WR group I think Bills ever had. 

[BringBackFlutie]

14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I think this is what ultimately shows how much more I like football more than baseball.

 

I'm watching an exhibition game of two teams I care nothing about over the Field of Dreams game.

...But you love baseball.  You even played in college, didn't you?

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

 Another thing Allen didn’t have was a good line that year

Yeah line was bad too, but he still made many plays to WR's only to be dropped

[corta765]

8 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Drop passes stink but happen!  But let’s say the drops were average for the team i guess it raises theQBR to mid to upper 70’s? Another thing Allen didn’t have was a good line that year.. in the 4 games I watched him play he was running for his life a lot. (At least that’s what it looked like to me)

 

If I was a Pats fan I wouldn't want Jones playing for a while. Cam looks decent and Jones did some nice things last night which with some time could really develop. Cam needed more help and NE certainly added some pieces to make his life better. I can easily see NE winning 8-10 games with Cam and the offense just improving a bit which allows Jones time to find his way. If Cam stinks it up it will make it an easier choice to go to Jones, but the current structure of the offense should do well for Cam. Jones sitting will benefit him to not be rushed. The preseason experience will help, but when the live bullets' fly very few rookies have ever came out without some tough lessons. It shall be interesting how it works out

[JESSEFEFFER]

15 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

Those flutter ducks in November are going to be hilarious

Speaking of Ducks, reading these posts I am reminded of the first time I saw Duck Hodges throwing live vs the Bills on the SNF broadcast.  I immediately got extremely confident.

[SCBills]

48 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I by no means was trying say Allen is not a very good QB.  I think a few on here took my use of his first year QBR as an insult to him.  I was just trying to point out rookie QBs rarely light it up.  I hope for Bills fans you are right about Allen as everything only time will tell. 
 

The division is Buffalos for the near future at least, I don’t expect Jones be capable of hanging with Allen for at least a full year if he ever can. (That means a full year being a starter so be more like season 3) 

Id be more excited about Mac Jones relative to what you have, over Mac Jones as the future - if that makes any sense. 
 

If Mac Jones can mask his lack of arm strength with anticipation and accuracy, y’all are going to be tough.. because heaven knows - what you have in Cam - isn’t scaring anyone. 
 

Mac Jones looked calm, accurate and solid last night.  I dont see a huge ceiling though.  I say that as someone who lives down south in SEC Country.  Mac Jones looked, last night, exactly how he did at Bama.  That’s good and bad…

 

Good, that the moment isn’t too big for him.  
 

Bad, that he’s not going to be able to carve up teams on shallow crossers, dump offs and deep balls when the defenses he’s facing are equal in talent to what he has.  
 

Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and to a lesser extent Trey Lance/Zach Wilson are boom or bust guys.  
 

Mac Jones is going to make y’all a good team.  I just don’t see great.  

[Johnnycage46]

1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

People seem confused that the media needs your attention today... not in 2 or 3 years..

I get it.  But it does seem to be that there is an even greater urgency with the media (especially with the advent of social media as a platform) for the media to trip over itself with the latest hot take...lots of "old takes exposed" get created that way.

[Malazan]

11 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

I get it.  But it does seem to be that there is an even greater urgency with the media (especially with the advent of social media as a platform) for the media to trip over itself with the latest hot take...lots of "old takes exposed" get created that way.

 

It's a matter of efficiency. Throwing out a bunch of hot takes get a bunch of attention and nobody really cares that you're generally wrong. In fact, the 'generally wrong' ends up being an attention getter itself. Look at this forum.. people can't wait to post stuff from sites or reporters that they "hate" to get everyone else riled up and running over to pay attention to the object of said "hate". 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I’d consider Josh a Speedway QB, not Mobil😎

Cam is definitely a Shell of his former self. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BringBackFlutie said:

...But you love baseball.  You even played in college, didn't you?

I did but I never loved it.  Didn’t care when it was done.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I did but I never loved it.  Didn’t care when it was done.

Cool story

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Ya my projections are just way off.. I mean Vegas has them at 9 wins so dang I am crazy thinking they could have  9 to 10 wins, just a total homer thing.   But hey I am sure you and E are smarter than Vegas with the 7 prediction. 
 

 

Vegas is good…..usually better than public…..but then there’s the Bills O/U 8.5 wins in 2020.  They were only 4.5 wins off.  Utter fail.  Glad I cashed in on that blatant error.  

 

personally, I think the pats have the talent/coaching to win 9-11 games and beat us once.  But that doesn’t mean that the public isn’t sometimes smarter than Vegas.  

[Royale with Cheese]

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Cool story

Im going to start Spam again.  Any recipes?

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, Ghost_002! said:

 

 

I see the same record too, but how on earth is anyone gathering what a teams season is going to be from the first actual live hitting preseason game is beyond me...

 

Teams aren't even putting in their actual offensive n defensive schemes. Just (not saying you) Just overreacting to everything immediately.

That's true. I think my view of the Pats would stay the same regardless of what happens in preseason. 

[DCofNC]

On 8/13/2021 at 10:29 AM, Rochesterfan said:

 

I agree with some of this.  They were a 7 win team last year and better QB play they could easily had 10 or 11 wins.

 

The issue is I think they are even less diverse this year.  It was obvious Cam lacked the arm strength later in the season and once teams started moving up and stacking the box and not fearing the pass - they really struggled to win.  They kept games close, but were not a real threat to win.  I don’t think they get the early season teams backing off - I think teams will say - you have to beat us through the air and down the field - outside.  We are stacking the line of scrimmage and the middle - good luck.

 

This year they added TEs and look to be even more of a running game team and both Cam and Mac seem to be better at short 3-5 yard throws - meaning 1 incomplete pass kills a drive.  We saw it last evening with Jones - he completed nearly 70% of his passes for a 4.6 yard average.  His couple of throws over 10 yards in the air were incomplete.

 

He looked just like he did in college - the difference - his WRs are no longer 5* recruits playing against 2-3* players and therefore instead of big gains - they are tackled at 3-4 yards. 
 

I think they struggle early with Cam, but move the ball and eventually flip to Jones and he is a significantly better passer than Cam, but they still struggle to move and they end up around 6-8 wins.  They will be good enough to beat the bottom teams with defense, but will struggle against the better teams and end up well outside the playoff picture.

I can’t quite agree on win total, but I see your point.  The thing is, you can tell people what’s coming and they still have to stop it. They brought in some good talent and they are getting a LOT back on D, so don’t discount that in the W column.   I see them as a real contender for the playoffs, but I do believe that hinges on either Cam is back to a competent QB or Jones has one of those semi-special rookie years.   The issue is, neither is going to be asked to do much and if the Ravens have proven anything, it’s you don’t need a great thrower to make it work. 
 

Regardless of who is closer here, I think we can both agree , the Bills SHOULD, beat them, but the Pats aren’t going to be a great match up if they can execute their game plan.