Where are the roster battles?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay so I sat down and tried to write out my 53 last night for the first time this pre-season and I thought I'd summarise where I see the remaining roster battles:

 

Offense:

I think about 19 spots on offense are pretty much settled: Allen, Trubisky, Moss, Singletary, Brieda, Knox, Hollister, Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams, Boettger and Brown. I'd be very surprised at this stage if any of those 19 do not make the team (injury permitting of course). That leaves 5 to 6 spots up for grabs. They will certainly carry at least 8 offensive linemen and I would give Ryan Bates the inside track on that next spot as he has been here, knows the system and is cheap. I think Reggie Gilliam as the only possible full back, and as a key special teamer (they love him inside on kick coverage and as a wing protector on punts) is also more likely than not to seal a spot. That takes you to 21 and leaves you with 3 or 4 spots remaining. 

 

The 22nd spot comes down to who their starting gunners are on kick off and punt coverage. Siran Neal is a pretty safe bet to retain his spot on one side (more of him to come) but the other side is interesting. Taiwan Jones is the man in possession and Beane spoke glowingly of him again last week. That said, the Bills have tried Brieda at that spot some in camp and Jake Kumerow - who did it when Jones missed time last year. If their calculation is that they can get close to Jones production from either of those two guys it would open up some options. It would certainly seal Kumerow's spot as the 6th receiver (a battle I think he is already comfortably leading) if he wins the gunner job but it might open up a 7th roster spot at receiver at the expense of the extra running back if they don't want to risk exposing Hodgins or Stevenson to waivers. If either of those two ball out in pre-season or Stevenson pops as a returner that becomes a real option. If they decide Brieda is their guy then I would expect them to still carry a 4th running back (because gunner is a high impact position liable to result in injuries) but it might make Antonio Williams a more likely bet than Taiwan Jones. So that 22nd spot comes down to Jones, Kumerow or Antonio Williams. 

 

The 23rd spot is the back end of the receiver battle. I know some people think Isaiah McKenzie is not yet safe and there are two spots to shoot at here but he is having a nice camp by all reports, is leading the returner battle by some distance and the way Brian Daboll talked about him a couple of days ago I find it almost impossible at this point to believe he wouldn't be a guy Dabes bangs the table for when the rubber hits the road. So that final place comes down in my mind to Kumerow, Hodgins and Stevenson (sorry Duke Williams fans). If Kumerow is already in as a gunner then Hodgins and Stevenson have a real shot... but if they just end up with 6 receivers I think early returns suggest Kumerow is at the head of the race. The other two need to make an impression when the games start. 

 

The 24th and 25th spot likely comes down to a 9th lineman and a 3rd tight end. The history of this regime tells us the Bills like to keep tight ends. Even though it has been a comparatively weak position since McDermott and Beane arrived here they kept 4 in 2017, 3 in 2018, 4 in 2019 and 4 (including Gilliam as a TE) in 2020. If it was me I'd just keep Knox, Hollister and Gilliam as a FB/TE but I suspect the Bills will lean towards keeping 3 plus Gilliam and so Tommy Sweeney would appear to have a path to a roster spot. That means one OL spot to fight for between Bobby Hart, Forrest Lamp, Jordan Devey, Tommy Doyle, Jack Anderson and maybe Caleb Benenoch. My gut instinct is they would go with a tackle and Bobby Hart has been getting reps on the left side in Dawkins's absence and is a vet so I'd make him slight favourite. If Jack Anderson, drafted this year, has a really good camp and pre-season and the Bills don't want to expose him to waivers them I think it would be at the expense of that final tight end spot and maybe they'd figure Sweeney - a 7th round pick three years ago with very little on tape - is easier to sneak through to the Practice Squad. Of course they could decide to save a spot on offense and only have 24 in which case the 3rd tight end and 9th lineman are battling for one spot.

 

 

 

Nice write up.

 

Offense:

I think Gilliam is pretty much a lock, for his ST abilities. I think they are hoping to use him more as an H-back this season.

I'm not sure Hollister is a lock - I went into training camp thinking that, but now not so sure.  He was reported to dress today, but not take part in team drills.  As you note, they kept 3 TE (4 with Gilliam) on the roster, plus 1 on the practice squad.  I think it's likely Tommy Sweeney starts the season on the practice squad, but I also think it's possible he could challenge Hollister for a roster spot.  I also think it's possible Hollister starts the season on IR.

 

I believe the Bills kept 9 OLmen on the roster last year, plus 1 or 2 on practice squad.  I seriously doubt the 9th OLman  and 3rd TE wind up competing for a spot.

 

I hope Bobby Hart isn't competing for a spot because by all reports he didn't look so good on Saturday and it sounds like Brown is actually taking more of the reps in "no fans" practice.  I thought it was significant that Beane mentioned Ford can play tackle if they need him to.  If they feel Brown is developed enough to be a decent backup this season, Bates and Ford would give them 3 guys who can back up at tackle.

 

[Patrick Duffy]

12 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I dont think Breida, Hollister, Johnson and Matakevich are locks yet. I agree about the other locks. I too thought it was a near certainty that Addison would be cut - but vibes outa OBD appear to indicate he may be safe - it is still early though - and there will likely be an injury or two before the roster cut down.

I guess technically Breida isn't a "lock" to make the team. Although imo his chances are far more likely that he makes it than not. If they keep 4 RB's he for sure would be a lock. I don't see anyone else besides A. Williams maybe that could do something possibly. Doubt Wade makes it. Can't think of anyone off top my head unless I'm missing someone.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay so I sat down and tried to write out my 53 last night for the first time this pre-season and I thought I'd summarise where I see the remaining roster battles:

 

Offense:

I think about 19 spots on offense are pretty much settled: Allen, Trubisky, Moss, Singletary, Brieda, Knox, Hollister, Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams, Boettger and Brown. I'd be very surprised at this stage if any of those 19 do not make the team (injury permitting of course). That leaves 5 to 6 spots up for grabs. They will certainly carry at least 8 offensive linemen and I would give Ryan Bates the inside track on that next spot as he has been here, knows the system and is cheap. I think Reggie Gilliam as the only possible full back, and as a key special teamer (they love him inside on kick coverage and as a wing protector on punts) is also more likely than not to seal a spot. That takes you to 21 and leaves you with 3 or 4 spots remaining. 

 

The 22nd spot comes down to who their starting gunners are on kick off and punt coverage. Siran Neal is a pretty safe bet to retain his spot on one side (more of him to come) but the other side is interesting. Taiwan Jones is the man in possession and Beane spoke glowingly of him again last week. That said, the Bills have tried Brieda at that spot some in camp and Jake Kumerow - who did it when Jones missed time last year. If their calculation is that they can get close to Jones production from either of those two guys it would open up some options. It would certainly seal Kumerow's spot as the 6th receiver (a battle I think he is already comfortably leading) if he wins the gunner job but it might open up a 7th roster spot at receiver at the expense of the extra running back if they don't want to risk exposing Hodgins or Stevenson to waivers. If either of those two ball out in pre-season or Stevenson pops as a returner that becomes a real option. If they decide Brieda is their guy then I would expect them to still carry a 4th running back (because gunner is a high impact position liable to result in injuries) but it might make Antonio Williams a more likely bet than Taiwan Jones. So that 22nd spot comes down to Jones, Kumerow or Antonio Williams. 

 

The 23rd spot is the back end of the receiver battle. I know some people think Isaiah McKenzie is not yet safe and there are two spots to shoot at here but he is having a nice camp by all reports, is leading the returner battle by some distance and the way Brian Daboll talked about him a couple of days ago I find it almost impossible at this point to believe he wouldn't be a guy Dabes bangs the table for when the rubber hits the road. So that final place comes down in my mind to Kumerow, Hodgins and Stevenson (sorry Duke Williams fans). If Kumerow is already in as a gunner then Hodgins and Stevenson have a real shot... but if they just end up with 6 receivers I think early returns suggest Kumerow is at the head of the race. The other two need to make an impression when the games start. 

 

The 24th and 25th spot likely comes down to a 9th lineman and a 3rd tight end. The history of this regime tells us the Bills like to keep tight ends. Even though it has been a comparatively weak position since McDermott and Beane arrived here they kept 4 in 2017, 3 in 2018, 4 in 2019 and 4 (including Gilliam as a TE) in 2020. If it was me I'd just keep Knox, Hollister and Gilliam as a FB/TE but I suspect the Bills will lean towards keeping 3 plus Gilliam and so Tommy Sweeney would appear to have a path to a roster spot. That means one OL spot to fight for between Bobby Hart, Forrest Lamp, Jordan Devey, Tommy Doyle, Jack Anderson and maybe Caleb Benenoch. My gut instinct is they would go with a tackle and Bobby Hart has been getting reps on the left side in Dawkins's absence and is a vet so I'd make him slight favourite. If Jack Anderson, drafted this year, has a really good camp and pre-season and the Bills don't want to expose him to waivers them I think it would be at the expense of that final tight end spot and maybe they'd figure Sweeney - a 7th round pick three years ago with very little on tape - is easier to sneak through to the Practice Squad. Of course they could decide to save a spot on offense and only have 24 in which case the 3rd tight end and 9th lineman are battling for one spot.

 

Defense:

So same process on defense... start with the certainties. I get to 17: Star, Oliver, Hughes, Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa, Edmunds, Milano, Matakevich, White, Wallace, Jackson, T. Johnson, Neal, Hyde, Poyer and J. Johnson. 

 

I'll start at the back end of the defense to work out where the battles are. The 18th spot on defense will certainly go to a defensive back and almost certainly to a safety. They have categorised Siran Neal as a safety in the past but in recent years they have very much counted him as a nickel corner as well as his role as primary gunner so I am including him as a corner meaning I have only three safeties on my certainty list. There are currently only two other safeties on the roster - Josh Thomas a second year player who was an UDFA and spent last season on the practice squad and Damar Hamlin who the Bills spent a draft pick on so I give Hamlin and advantage there. 

 

Then for the 19th and 20th spots you look at linebacker. I only have 3 certainties and they will keep 5 minimum. AJ Klein remains the clubhouse leader for the 19th spot as the primary back up. He is by far the most experienced of the backup options, his game improved down the stretch last year once they had worked out how to use this significantly less athletic version of AJ Klein than the one they remembered in Carolina but he isn't a certainty because his special teams snaps generally trended down last year (and not totally consistently with his defensive snaps increasing either) an he would save them $1.2m on the cap if they cut him. He is a sneaky possibility for the surprise cut, but for now I'll give him the 19th spot. His biggest competition is Tyrell Adams, who is a solid vet who has had some success in the league in Houston. He was a core special teamer for the Texans as a backup linebacker before winning a starting job mid-way through last season and I suspect that combination of ST ace, experience as a starter and vet minimum salary makes him the 20th guy. That would mean Andre Smith - another former Panther - who made the roster for special teams contributions last year likely misses out. 

 

The 21st and 22nd spots are almost certainly defensive tackles. I'd be shocked if the Bills keep less than four given how much they like to rotate their line. Vernon Butler actually costs them money to release at this point after the pay cut and so unless he really struggles in camp and pre-season he likely makes the team. Harrison Phillips was on the bubble for much of last season after being benched for a couple of games and struggling to find any consistency in his performances. However, he bounced back nicely at the end of the year and I am told has looked decent and in better physical shape in camp. I give those two the clear edge over Justin Zimmer who played about as well as the Bills could have expected last year but is a marginal talent at the NFL level. 

 

That leaves them three spots on defense to fill and it basically comes down to who do you want to keep. The contenders are three defensive ends: Mario Addison, Efe Obada and Daryl Johnson; three linbackers: Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson and Joe Giles-Harris; and two defensive backs: Rachad Wildgoose and Cam Lewis. I think most people still expect Addison to make it. They like his vet leadership, he knows the scheme and he took a pay cut to be here. But he still saves them $2.2m on the cap this year if they cut him, his play has definitely been on the decline for two years and the Bills have great depth at that spot. Efe Obada was less of a "name" free agent but he gives the Bills a real speed off the edge that beyond Hughes is a bit lacking in their group and, critically, he plays special teams which might be vital if (as many expect) Daryl Johnson who has een a core special teamer the past two years misses out. If the Bills go with two defensive ends I suspect that means all three linebackers miss the cut as I think Rachad Wildgoose will make this roster if healthy. I suspect the Bills are looking ahead to next spring when Taron Johnson will likely get one of the richer nickel corner contracts in the league as a free agent and starting to look at replacement options. Their current backup is Siran Neal (also a FA after the season) so look for Wildgoose to stick as a guy they daren't expose to waivers for future planning reasons. If the Bills take the tough call to cut either Addison or Obada (I suspect it would be Addison but let's see) then the question becomes do the Bills retain Tyrel Dodson who they have generally invested some faith in or does Daryl Johnson's likely cut make them feel they need Andre Smith as an additional special teams contributor?

 

 

 

OK, here's my take on your take.

 

Offense

I'm not so sure about Hollister as he's missed a fair amount of time already.  Could see the Bills signing a more experienced TE that's cut from some other teams roster in September to replace him and will be Knox Sweeney, & TBD (plus there's always Ertz)

 

I think Kumerow & Hodgins make it as the 6th and 7th WR and at the expense of T Jones.  Gilliam as a FB and ST player.

 

Think Bates is a lock.  Backup tackle will be interesting as they don't want to lose either rookie tackle they drafted, but not so sure they are comfortable with them two as the back ups.  Won't be surprised to see one of the rookies end up on IR and they then keep Hart.

 

By the numbers

QB   2

RB   3

TE   3

WR  7

OL   9

FB   1

 

Defense

Think it's 6 DE with Obada the last one in and D Johnson is out.  Sounds like Obada offers almost as much on ST  Agree with 4 DT but everything I read sounds like Zimmer is looking real good to make it  Phillips may be the weakest, but do they want to cut him and gamble on no true backup for Star?  On the other hand Star comes out on passing plays so may not need a true backup for depth, just more for injury concern if Star were to get hurt.  But maybe they answer is if that happens, they find someone to sign.  Or keep Phillips and Zimmer and eat the cash on Butler.  They've also commented how on passing downs a couple of DE's can move inside

 

With keeping 10 DL think it's only 5 LB, Edmunds, Milano, Klein and likely Matakevich make the top 4.  Right now sounds like Smith is next best.

 

Think it's 6 CBs, White Wallace, T Johnson, and Jackson are close to locks with Neal close behind.  Question is does Wildgoose get the last spot or one of the other camp bodies beat him.

 

At safety Hyde, Proyer, and J Johnson are in the only questions is does Hamlin get the 4th spot though sounds like someone is outplaying him.  Can't recall if it's Thomas or another guy think his name is Thompson??

 

By the numbers

DT   4

DE   6

LB   5

CB   6

S     4

 

PK, LS, PU

 

Mckenzie is the return guy with Hyde backup for punt returns.  Not sure who the backup KO return player is?

 

That still leaves experienced ST standouts and main contributors in: Gilliam, Kumerow, Brieda, Matakevich, Zimmer, J Johnson, and Obada.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Nice write up.

 

Offense:

I think Gilliam is pretty much a lock, for his ST abilities. I think they are hoping to use him more as an H-back this season.

I'm not sure Hollister is a lock - I went into training camp thinking that, but now not so sure.  He was reported to dress today, but not take part in team drills.  As you note, they kept 3 TE (4 with Gilliam) on the roster, plus 1 on the practice squad.  I think it's likely Tommy Sweeney starts the season on the practice squad, but I also think it's possible he could challenge Hollister for a roster spot.  I also think it's possible Hollister starts the season on IR.

 

I believe the Bills kept 9 OLmen on the roster last year, plus 1 or 2 on practice squad.  I seriously doubt the 9th OLman  and 3rd TE wind up competing for a spot.

 

I hope Bobby Hart isn't competing for a spot because by all reports he didn't look so good on Saturday and it sounds like Brown is actually taking more of the reps in "no fans" practice.  I thought it was significant that Beane mentioned Ford can play tackle if they need him to.  If they feel Brown is developed enough to be a decent backup this season, Bates and Ford would give them 3 guys who can back up at tackle.

 

 

We have discussed before but I do not believe Bates can play tackle. When he has tried to do it in an NFL game he has struggled to my eye. I just suspect that going with only one true backup tackle - a rookie who has never taken an NFL snap - is not a very Beane and McDermott approach. I am no big Hart fan but I suspect they want a vet insurance policy at tackle and if they keep a 9th olineman I think he probably has a slight advantage over more interior players. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Can't recall if it's Thomas or another guy think his name is Thompson??

 

Tariq Thompson a UDFA out of San Diego State who I absolutely loved. I haven't had time to listen to as much camp stuff as in previous years so hadn't picked up that he was generating buzz. I had a draftable grade on him he was my 100th ranked player on my big board. Not a height, weight, speed guy doesn't fit the Bills' prototype measurables but when you flicked his college tape on man he just always seemed to be around the football. Great smarts, great instincts. I'd been working on the assumption he was an easy cut and sign back to the practice squad. You always feel better about doing that with guys who have been passed on 7 times by the whole league. Delighted to hear he is having a strong camp though.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

That still leaves experienced ST standouts and main contributors in: Gilliam, Kumerow, Brieda, Matakevich, Zimmer, J Johnson, and Obada.

 

You would have Neal too and in this scenario presumably either Brieda or Kumerow as the opposite gunner. I don't think that is impossible but as of Beane's comments 2/3 days ago I believe Taiwan Jones remains the man in possession of that job. While the other two have taken reps there I don't get the sense at this stage that either have overtaken Jones in the FO's eyes. And even if they are sold on Neal and Jones as their primary gunners they will still be using camp to look at backups. 

 

I don't think it is impossible that Jones ends up cut but I think a lot of people are presuming it will happen and at the moment I'd still say it is more likely than not that he makes the 53. In order for him not to either Breida or Kumerow would have to beat him out as the gunner or Hodgins / Stevenson would have to pop in pre-season to then extent that the Bills daren't risk trying to sneak them onto the PS and are willing to compromise STs to retain them. That latter scenario to me would be a departure from Beane and McDermott's MO. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You would have Neal too and in this scenario presumably either Brieda or Kumerow as the opposite gunner. I don't think that is impossible but as of Beane's comments 2/3 days ago I believe Taiwan Jones remains the man in possession of that job. While the other two have taken reps there I don't get the sense at this stage that either have overtaken Jones in the FO's eyes. And even if they are sold on Neal and Jones as their primary gunners they will still be using camp to look at backups. 

 

I don't think it is impossible that Jones ends up cut but I think a lot of people are presuming it will happen and at the moment I'd still say it is more likely than not that he makes the 53. In order for him not to either Breida or Kumerow would have to beat him out as the gunner or Hodgins / Stevenson would have to pop in pre-season to then extent that the Bills daren't risk trying to sneak them onto the PS and are willing to compromise STs to retain them. That latter scenario to me would be a departure from Beane and McDermott's MO. 

 

My personal belief is that another position will be compromised this year in order to keep an extra DLman.

I go back and forth in my mind which position group that might be, but RB seems like a candidate.

[Rochesterfan]

11 hours ago, Georgie said:

Addison and Butler will not go to the practice squad.  If they are cut, other teams will be interested. Even if they were eligible I doubt it would happen . 

 

Why?

 

They are both Beane and McD guys and with their contract restructuring they got some money upfront - I could easily see one or both wanting a shot at a ring and getting paid.

 

If other teams are really interested - then even better as we would get some off-set money back most likely for next years cap, but I think both would easily go unclaimed and then have a choice at going to the PS.

[CaptnCoke11]

Great read.  Pretty spot on work 

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My personal belief is that another position will be compromised this year in order to keep an extra DLman.

I go back and forth in my mind which position group that might be, but RB seems like a candidate.

 

Yea, maybe. I don't think special teams will be compromised though. Just feels very unlike this regime. Beane generally tells you the truth when he speaks and he has said again this offseason that they believe in being strong in the kicking game. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea, maybe. I don't think special teams will be compromised though. Just feels very unlike this regime. Beane generally tells you the truth when he speaks and he has said again this offseason that they believe in being strong in the kicking game. 

 

He's also said that the last game you play shows you where your weakness are and "we've got to affect the QB more".  Peterman debacle aside, they seem to not cut veterans until the guy behind them shows ready to play for reals.

 

Either the Bills have wasted some high draft picks and signings, or something's gotta go

[DCofNC]

It sure looks like there are going to be some talented guys looking for new jobs.  I think a few of them have some trade value.  Touch Down Jesus may garner a 1st round pick from Aaron Rodgers, so he could be on the block.  I hate to see It, but there’s a log jame at DE, somebody has got to go.  Outside looking in, it’s Addison that’s gotta go.  You have Hughes who seems untouchable (maybe not?), 3 guys you drafted in the last 2 years in the top 2 rounds, Obada who looks the part.. I’m not seeing room for much more.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You would have Neal too and in this scenario presumably either Brieda or Kumerow as the opposite gunner. I don't think that is impossible but as of Beane's comments 2/3 days ago I believe Taiwan Jones remains the man in possession of that job. While the other two have taken reps there I don't get the sense at this stage that either have overtaken Jones in the FO's eyes. And even if they are sold on Neal and Jones as their primary gunners they will still be using camp to look at backups. 

 

I don't think it is impossible that Jones ends up cut but I think a lot of people are presuming it will happen and at the moment I'd still say it is more likely than not that he makes the 53. In order for him not to either Breida or Kumerow would have to beat him out as the gunner or Hodgins / Stevenson would have to pop in pre-season to then extent that the Bills daren't risk trying to sneak them onto the PS and are willing to compromise STs to retain them. That latter scenario to me would be a departure from Beane and McDermott's MO. 

 

I agree with both your statements, but does both Breida and Kumarow get bonus points as they add a second function to the roster as a RB and WR and can take actual meaningful snaps at both positions whereas Jones and Matakevich pretty much only add ST value though even Matakevich  did play some snaps.  While Jones is the better ST'er he may be passed in overall roster value by others.

 

To me the question is how does the roster improve much from last year when keeping players like Jones and a 6th round pick( I believe it was) in Stevenson.  I think their MO may need to change in order to improve quickly.

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He's also said that the last game you play shows you where your weakness are and "we've got to affect the QB more".  Peterman debacle aside, they seem to not cut veterans until the guy behind them shows ready to play for reals.

 

Either the Bills have wasted some high draft picks and signings, or something's gotta go

 

They kept 10 DL last year and still carried 4 backs. Their general compromise has been corner. They have gone 5 corners on the 53 instead of 6 for the last two years.

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I agree with both your statements, but does both Breida and Kumarow get bonus points as they add a second function to the roster as a RB and WR and can take actual meaningful snaps at both positions whereas Jones and Matakevich pretty much only add ST value though even Matakevich  did play some snaps.  While Jones is the better ST'er he may be passed in overall roster value by others.

 

To me the question is how does the roster improve much from last year when keeping players like Jones and a 6th round pick( I believe it was) in Stevenson.  I think their MO may need to change in order to improve quickly.

 

I disagree with the premise that a backend of the roster receiver who can play gunner on coverage units offers more value than a high end gunner who doesn't play on offense. When you are down to your 6th wideout or 4th back you are in trouble regardless. Don't build your roster trying to be a bit better in the worst case scenario. Build it to be at your best in your peak scenario.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They kept 10 DL last year and still carried 4 backs. Their general compromise has been corner. They have gone 5 corners on the 53 instead of 6 for the last two years.

 

I disagree with the premise that a backend of the roster receiver who can play gunner on coverage units offers more value than a high end gunner who doesn't play on offense. When you are down to your 6th wideout or 4th back you are in trouble regardless. Don't build your roster trying to be a bit better in the worst case scenario. Build it to be at your best in your peak scenario.

 

Maybe not if they are someone as strong as Kumarow and Breida who's really the 3rd RB. For most teams the #3 RB is a contributor on a regular basis.  The Bills led the league in 4 wide sets, so the #6 WR could see significant playing time if any of the 5 above are hurt or just need a blow.  McKenzie's playing time as a WR may drop some too if he's the main return guy.

 

We'll find out the answers in less than a month or so!

[IgotBILLStopay]

14 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I guess technically Breida isn't a "lock" to make the team. Although imo his chances are far more likely that he makes it than not. If they keep 4 RB's he for sure would be a lock. I don't see anyone else besides A. Williams maybe that could do something possibly. Doubt Wade makes it. Can't think of anyone off top my head unless I'm missing someone.

Well it comes down to a. Williams b. how critical Jones is to ST and c. (small chance) Wade, no?

[Kelly the Dog]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They kept 10 DL last year and still carried 4 backs. Their general compromise has been corner. They have gone 5 corners on the 53 instead of 6 for the last two years.

 

I disagree with the premise that a backend of the roster receiver who can play gunner on coverage units offers more value than a high end gunner who doesn't play on offense. When you are down to your 6th wideout or 4th back you are in trouble regardless. Don't build your roster trying to be a bit better in the worst case scenario. Build it to be at your best in your peak scenario.

Plus it’s somewhat unlikely 6 WR dress for the game unless 2 are standout essential ST

[Just Joshin']

I guess I am in the minority - I do not think Gilliam makes the team.  He is 4th TE at best and FB is rarely used.  He will take it to the PS easily so why roster him?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Just Joshin' said:

I guess I am in the minority - I do not think Gilliam makes the team.  He is 4th TE at best and FB is rarely used.  He will take it to the PS easily so why roster him?

 

Because he is their main backfield blocker and plays a key role on special teams - especially as their wing protector on punts. They are already down their opposite wing guy from last year as Marlowe has gone.

[BigAl2526]

Cut down is going to be painful because you're going to have to let go of quality players.  How many are going to latch on to teams the Bills will face this season?  I'd hate to have a former Bills player make a play that helps a future opponent beat the Bills.

 

Good work, Gunner.

[Rocky Landing]

On Offense:

I assume they keep nine O-linemen. I know people have given Boettger the edge over Ford at G, but I'm not so sure. I suspect they're on equal footing, but both are certainly locks. What I wonder about Ford (especially if he is not a starter) is: does McD think of him to have position flex? If he ends up in a backup role, he did, of course play his first season at LT, and was serviceable. I bring it up because after Brown (who is raw as hell), there's Hart, and reports from TC have Bobby Hart looking rather pedestrian.

 

Taiwan Jones is an interesting case. He's frustrating to fans because as an actual RB, he's straight-up awful. He's the worst RB on the team. But, apparently, a very important part of ST. Could he be replaced? If Kumerow were able to take his role on ST, it would be a no-brainer. But, IMO, rather than opening up a seventh WR spot, as some would like, I would think Antonio Williams would be a valuable addition to the RB room, and as a STer. He is right now the closest thing we have to a downhill power back, IMO.

 

Wide receiver. There has been some speculation on this forum that Isaiah McKenzie is not a lock. I don't buy that for a second. There has also been speculation that either or both of Hodgins, and Stevenson should take up roster space because they wouldn't be safe on the PS. I don't buy it. They'll be safe on the PS, and even if they're not, unless one of them wins the #6WR spot (possible), they're not going to keep them on the 53 purely for the sake of development.

 

On Defense:

I think the battle for the backup safety positions is pretty up in the air, and I mentioned Jaquan Johnson the other day as being a surprise cut. I know he was core ST, last season, and perhaps @GunnerBill would know just how valuable he's been in his (personal protection, I believe?) role, but it seems to me he hasn't been that much of a standout, especially as an actual safety. And, Hamlin, Thompson, and Thomas have all gotten some buzz in TC.

 

And, there is Siran Neal. Here's a way-too-early bold prediction for the '22 season: At the end of this season, when Taron, and Siran both become UFAs, Taron will get a big contract elsewhere, and Beane will extend Siran a decent deal, and he becomes our NCB. 

 

I'm going to stick with my prediction that they keep 10 D-linemen, and possibly 11. I think Addison is a surprise cut, and I have been arguing they keep Darryl Johnson all summer, so I'm not going to stop now. And, if they do keep 11, that would be Zimmer. "Glue," and all that..

[billsfan89]

On 8/5/2021 at 8:33 AM, snafu said:

They’re going to leave some good talent behind. 
What a nice problem to have. 
 

 

Probably see a trade or two for late round picks. Part of the benefits of being a well run organization. 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

On Offense:

I assume they keep nine O-linemen. I know people have given Boettger the edge over Ford at G, but I'm not so sure. I suspect they're on equal footing, but both are certainly locks. What I wonder about Ford (especially if he is not a starter) is: does McD think of him to have position flex? If he ends up in a backup role, he did, of course play his first season at LT, and was serviceable. I bring it up because after Brown (who is raw as hell), there's Hart, and reports from TC have Bobby Hart looking rather pedestrian.

 

Taiwan Jones is an interesting case. He's frustrating to fans because as an actual RB, he's straight-up awful. He's the worst RB on the team. But, apparently, a very important part of ST. Could he be replaced? If Kumerow were able to take his role on ST, it would be a no-brainer. But, IMO, rather than opening up a seventh WR spot, as some would like, I would think Antonio Williams would be a valuable addition to the RB room, and as a STer. He is right now the closest thing we have to a downhill power back, IMO.

 

Wide receiver. There has been some speculation on this forum that Isaiah McKenzie is not a lock. I don't buy that for a second. There has also been speculation that either or both of Hodgins, and Stevenson should take up roster space because they wouldn't be safe on the PS. I don't buy it. They'll be safe on the PS, and even if they're not, unless one of them wins the #6WR spot (possible), they're not going to keep them on the 53 purely for the sake of development.

 

On Defense:

I think the battle for the backup safety positions is pretty up in the air, and I mentioned Jaquan Johnson the other day as being a surprise cut. I know he was core ST, last season, and perhaps @GunnerBill would know just how valuable he's been in his (personal protection, I believe?) role, but it seems to me he hasn't been that much of a standout, especially as an actual safety. And, Hamlin, Thompson, and Thomas have all gotten some buzz in TC.

 

And, there is Siran Neal. Here's a way-too-early bold prediction for the '22 season: At the end of this season, when Taron, and Siran both become UFAs, Taron will get a big contract elsewhere, and Beane will extend Siran a decent deal, and he becomes our NCB. 

 

I'm going to stick with my prediction that they keep 10 D-linemen, and possibly 11. I think Addison is a surprise cut, and I have been arguing they keep Darryl Johnson all summer, so I'm not going to stop now. And, if they do keep 11, that would be Zimmer. "Glue," and all that..

 

Jaquan Johnson was absolutely key as the personal protector on punts last year. They tried a few guys early - Matakevich and Gilliam I think both had goes before Jaquan solidified it - was Pat Di Marco's job beforehand. McDermott also spoke highly of Johnson when he met the media this week so I would be very surprised if he is cut.  It is also a retention question. Unless Tariq Thompson (who as I have said above I had as a draftable player and a good fit here pre-draft) totally balls out in pre-season games there is every reason to believe a man who was passed on through 7 rounds of the draft would not be signed to someone else's active roster and while ocassionally a guy gets cut and signs for someone else's practice squad rather than the team he did camp with that is very rare. If the Bills want Thompson (or Thomas for that matter) back on their PS they should be able to get them without too much fuss. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

There is always a surprise cut or two 

Feliciano is my guess on offense

H. Phillips is my guess on defense 

3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

On Offense:

I assume they keep nine O-linemen. I know people have given Boettger the edge over Ford at G, but I'm not so sure. I suspect they're on equal footing, but both are certainly locks. What I wonder about Ford (especially if he is not a starter) is: does McD think of him to have position flex? If he ends up in a backup role, he did, of course play his first season at LT, and was serviceable. I bring it up because after Brown (who is raw as hell), there's Hart, and reports from TC have Bobby Hart looking rather pedestrian.

 

Taiwan Jones is an interesting case. He's frustrating to fans because as an actual RB, he's straight-up awful. He's the worst RB on the team. But, apparently, a very important part of ST. Could he be replaced? If Kumerow were able to take his role on ST, it would be a no-brainer. But, IMO, rather than opening up a seventh WR spot, as some would like, I would think Antonio Williams would be a valuable addition to the RB room, and as a STer. He is right now the closest thing we have to a downhill power back, IMO.

 

Wide receiver. There has been some speculation on this forum that Isaiah McKenzie is not a lock. I don't buy that for a second. There has also been speculation that either or both of Hodgins, and Stevenson should take up roster space because they wouldn't be safe on the PS. I don't buy it. They'll be safe on the PS, and even if they're not, unless one of them wins the #6WR spot (possible), they're not going to keep them on the 53 purely for the sake of development.

 

On Defense:

I think the battle for the backup safety positions is pretty up in the air, and I mentioned Jaquan Johnson the other day as being a surprise cut. I know he was core ST, last season, and perhaps @GunnerBill would know just how valuable he's been in his (personal protection, I believe?) role, but it seems to me he hasn't been that much of a standout, especially as an actual safety. And, Hamlin, Thompson, and Thomas have all gotten some buzz in TC.

 

And, there is Siran Neal. Here's a way-too-early bold prediction for the '22 season: At the end of this season, when Taron, and Siran both become UFAs, Taron will get a big contract elsewhere, and Beane will extend Siran a decent deal, and he becomes our NCB. 

 

I'm going to stick with my prediction that they keep 10 D-linemen, and possibly 11. I think Addison is a surprise cut, and I have been arguing they keep Darryl Johnson all summer, so I'm not going to stop now. And, if they do keep 11, that would be Zimmer. "Glue," and all that..

Ford played RT his rookie year, Bates can play OT, and Boettger is far from a lock. I like Bates as the back up center and that frees them up to go with Boettger at RG and let Feliciano go. 

[Rocky Landing]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

There is always a surprise cut or two 

Feliciano is my guess on offense

H. Phillips is my guess on defense 

Horrible Harry getting cut certainly would be a surprise, and a hard pill for a lot of people to swallow. but, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. 
 

Mongo, on the other hand— that ain’t happening. 

[HappyDays]

Joe Buscaglia had some interesting ideas in today's training camp recap:

 

Quote

After nine practices, the defensive end battle for roster spots is shaping as the most competitive of the summer. Since the pads have gone on, bubble defensive ends Efe Obada and Darryl Johnson have stacked excellent pass-rushing days one on top of the other. Two days ago, Obada had a dominant practice even though Johnson put together some good reps. On Saturday, the roles were reversed. Johnson had his best practice of training camp, and it couldn’t have come at a better time than during the team’s scrimmage.

 

Quote

The trouble is, Obada is Johnson’s primary competition for a spot and Obada has been excellent at camp as well. Obada showed up for a pressure of his own and an excellent run stuff Saturday where he contained the edge and made a tackle at the line of scrimmage. For the Bills to keep all seven defensive ends (Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Obada and Johnson) they’ll need to get creative. Maybe it’s only keeping three defensive tackles and playing some ends regularly on the interior. Or perhaps it’s skimping at cornerback to fit an 11th defensive lineman. All we can see is the impact some of these players are having, and Johnson is standing out for his defensive work and special teams ability. He might wind up being their most difficult decision this summer.

 

Quote

Given the state of things at defensive tackle right now, it might be worth the Bills time to consider only keeping three of them this year and using the remaining spots on versatile defensive ends like Obada, Basham and Johnson.

 

He proposes keeping just Oliver, Lotulelei, and Zimmer at DT, and keeping 7 DEs. I would be surprised if the Bills go that route but it may be the only way to get the 10 best d-linemen on the team. Harrison Phillips has been great in the community but as a football player I don't know that he's worth a spot over any of these DEs. But that would also leave us razor thin with DT depth. I think d-line is the hardest position group to predict right now.

Edited August 7, 2021 by HappyDays

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Joe Buscaglia had some interesting ideas in today's training camp recap:

 

 

 

 

He proposes keeping just Oliver, Lotulelei, and Zimmer at DT, and keeping 7 DEs. I would be surprised if the Bills go that route but it may be the only way to get the 10 best d-linemen on the team. Harrison Phillips has been great in the community but as a football player I don't know that he's worth a spot over any of these DEs. But that would also leave us razor thin with DT depth. I think d-line is the hardest position group to predict right now.

 

 

Actually haven't heard much positive at all about Addison or Lotulelei in camp. 

 

With most of their salaries guaranteed whether they make the team or not.........and likely having next to zero market for their services elsewhere........it might be an option to cut them and have them as vets on the PS to have available for injury replacements while keeping the young talent on the roster.

 

Can pretty much guarantee that if they were cut on the eve of the season they would at least not be signed elsewhere until week 2 when their veteran minimum salaries would be unguaranteed and they would only have to be paid week-to-week.    

 

Could also see Beane exploring some trades to swap depth at one position for help at another.........like the Eli Harold for Ryan Bates trade.   

 

I'd be interested in seeing @GunnerBill use his extensive knowledge of recent drafts to put together some swaps..........like Daryl Johnson for a promising but blocked LT prospect.......deals like that.   

[Maynard]

On 8/6/2021 at 6:09 AM, DCofNC said:

It sure looks like there are going to be some talented guys looking for new jobs.  I think a few of them have some trade value.  Touch Down Jesus may garner a 1st round pick from Aaron Rodgers, so he could be on the block.  I hate to see It, but there’s a log jame at DE, somebody has got to go.  Outside looking in, it’s Addison that’s gotta go.  You have Hughes who seems untouchable (maybe not?), 3 guys you drafted in the last 2 years in the top 2 rounds, Obada who looks the part.. I’m not seeing room for much more.  

I think the only problem is that Addison is really embracing the rooks. Haven’t heard much about Jerry doing so. That certainly doesn’t mean that Jerry hasn’t, but he hasn’t been mentioned too much lately by the rooks. Addison might be off the chopping block because of him taking on the rooks and because of his salary implications. Dunno..

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'd be interested in seeing @GunnerBill use his extensive knowledge of recent drafts to put together some swaps..........like Daryl Johnson for a promising but blocked LT prospect.......deals like that.   

 

I am away for a few days visiting family but I will have a look after pre season game 1 at my old draft boards. It is an interesting idea. I am particularly thinking could there be a depth corner somewhere you can unearth who is maybe limited but a scheme fit like when we got EJ Gaines the first time for peanuts in the Watkins deal. 

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I would think Antonio Williams would be a valuable addition to the RB room, and as a STer. He is right now the closest thing we have to a downhill power back, IMO.

 

This RB competition is heating up.  From all the reports I've read here about Williams it could get interesting.  I'm expecting him to take

a lot of snaps in preseason.  If he doesn't make the team (which right now seems likely) I sure hope he slips to the PS.

I hope that because next year could be his time to make the team outright.  He's my longshot player.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

This RB competition is heating up.  From all the reports I've read here about Williams it could get interesting.  I'm expecting him to take

a lot of snaps in preseason.  If he doesn't make the team (which right now seems likely) I sure hope he slips to the PS.

I hope that because next year could be his time to make the team outright.  He's my longshot player.

Yeah. I think his best chance to make the roster this season is if they cut Taiwan Jones, which, albeit unlikely, would probably be fine with a lot of fans. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This seems an appropriate place to put this:

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/08/buffalo-bills-on-the-bubble-what-theyre-saying-about-jake-kumerow-darryl-johnson-efe-obada-more.html

 

Quote

Kumerow had a rare drop at the Bills’ Return of the Blue & Red, but he’s been the team’s most consistent receiver behind the team’s top five. His ability to contribute on special teams also gives him a great chance of making the final roster.

 

Quote

Efe Obada has stood out at multiple training camp practices. He was one of the best defenders on the field during the team’s open practice on July 31 and NYUP’s Matt Parrino has gone on to note other strong practices as well.
 

“Obada has been one of the most consistent players on either side of the ball throughout camp and he got to show off his power on Tuesday,” Parrino wrote on August 3rd. “The best single pass rush rep of the day came from Obada, who put Brown in a blender before Allen was able to pitch it past the line of scrimmage to Zack Moss just in time. Obada combined with Vernon Butler earlier in practice to flush Mitch Trubisky out of the pocket on one of his early drop backs before taking off and running.
 

Obada’s length was on display in the third 11-on-11 period when he was able to get a hand up and knock down an Allen pass.

 

Also for Obada, don't discount the familiarity factor:

Quote

Obada has a previous relationship with defensive line coach Eric Washington which could help his chances of making the final roster as the coach knows exactly what Obada brings to the table. In addition to playing defensive end, Obada can also contribute on the inside.

 

Quote

“He’s always been great for me,” Bills special teams coach Health Farwell told the media. “To get four phases out of a defensive end, y’know those are hard to find. Pre-game when I talk to the other coordinators he’s the first guy that they bring up. It’s a mismatch having a guy that big and that fast running down the field, he’s just a huge factor they have to account for.”

In addition to Farwell, linebacker Tyler Matakevich heaped praise onto Johnson for his special teams play this week.

Johnson showed that he is more than just a special teams contributor at the Bills’ Return of the Blue & Red. He was the team’s best defensive end on the day applying pressure when given the opportunity.

 

Then this on Zimmer:

 

 

[MJS]

Personally, I'd rather have Zimmer on the team than either Harrison Phillips or Vernon Butler.

 

And I would rather keep Obada over Addison.

 

But I get they have to consider contracts.

[ndirish1978]

On 8/5/2021 at 9:39 AM, Gugny said:

 

Can you please re-write your original post in a more bulleted format?  It would be a lot easier on my eyes.  Thanks!

 

Gave it a shot

 

Offense - 24

QB

LOCK - Allen, Trubisky

BUBBLE -

 

RB

LOCK - Moss, Singletary, Brieda

BUBBLE - Taiwan Jones, A Williams, Gilliam

 

TE

LOCK - Knox, Hollister

BUBBLE - Sweeney

 

WR

LOCK - Diggs, Sanders, Beasley , Davis, McKenzie

BUBBLE - Kumerow, Stevenson, Hodgins, Duke

 

OT

LOCK - Dawkins, D Williams, Brown

BUBBLE - Doyle

 

OG

LOCK - Feliciano, Ford, Boettger

BUBBLE - Lamp, Anderson

 

C

LOCK - Morse

BUBBLE - Bates

 

Defense - 25

DE

LOCK - Hughes, Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa

BUBBLE - Obada, Addison, D Johnson

 

DT

LOCK - Oliver, Harry, Star

BUBBLE - Vernon Davis, Zimmer

 

LB

LOCK - Edmunds, Milano, Klein, Matakevich

BUBBLE - T Adams, Andre Smith, T Dodson, Joe Giles-Harris

 

CB

LOCK - Tre, Wallace, Jackson, T Johnson

BUBBLE - Wildgoose, Cam Lewis

 

S

LOCK - Poyer, Hyde, Neal, J Johnson

BUBBLE - J Thomas, Hamlin

 

ST

LOCK - Bass, Haack, Ferguson 

[MAJBobby]

DL. There is a major numbers game gonna go on and players that can play in this league are going to be moved either via cut or trade. 

[scuba guy]

On 8/7/2021 at 10:12 AM, BigAl2526 said:

Cut down is going to be painful because you're going to have to let go of quality players.  How many are going to latch on to teams the Bills will face this season?  I'd hate to have a former Bills player make a play that helps a future opponent beat the Bills.

 

Good work, Gunner.

Well the pats will diff pick up one of your players just to get scouting info

[Patrick Duffy]

How many thinks Duke Williams will NOT be kept on PS this time around? I think it may be a solid chance the legend of Duke may officially come to an end soon.