Steps taken to solve last year's problems

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I would agree with this. And it can be viewed as being negative or being positive. On one you can say they did not do enough to get better NOW. But on the other is that we are already in position to sustain what started last year and this offseason helps that be 3+ years out as well. 

You're right about positive or negative.   Some people here, and in the league, subscribe to the theory that you build to make a run at the Lombardi, and then you rebuild.  Hard to say whether that approach is right or wrong, but it's clear McBeane aren't following that model.  Their model is that they will keep adding good players, and in order to win the coaches and the players have to continue to improve at coaching and playing. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Mahomes crapped himself to the tune of 300 yards, 3 TDs, and no turnovers for a 117 QB rating against the Patriots.  Now I’ll grant you that he was confused by the NE defense in the first half, but he adjusted and put up 31 points in the second half.  It’s hard to beat a team by 3 TDs when that team scores 37 points.
 

Allen couldn’t get anything going at all until mop up time after it was 38-15 in the 4th quarter.  Buffalo didn’t make any offensive adjustments because there weren’t any built into the offense.  
 

I remember being on the other end of that during the Marty Schottenheimer days.  The KC offense was incredibly basic, and come playoff time, Denver was literally calling out our audibles pre-snap and pointing to where the ball was going before we even snapped the ball.  Had our offense been more innovative, we could have taken advantage of their aggressiveness with option routes and such, but Elvis Grbac wasn’t capable of running a complex offense, and Paul Hackett wasn’t exactly Bill Walsh.

 

Daboll runs a system based on a complex offense, but he’s simplified it substantially.  You don’t see a lot of option routes.  There aren’t a dozen different ways he disguises screen passes.  He does mix up the formations a decent amount, but there aren’t a ton of shifts that confuse the defense.  It’s a very vanilla version of what Brady was running in NE.  It still works well because Josh has physical gifts that Brady doesn’t have, but when it’s not working, it’s not like you can just make a bunch of halftime adjustments the way Payton and Brees could or Reid and Mahomes can.  I think you’ll see that develop a bit as Josh continues to learn the position.  He’s still growing as a QB, and right now he still looks like an athlete playing QB at times.  As the game continues to slow down for him, I think he’ll look more like a QB who happens to also be a gifted athlete.  If that happens, he’s going to wear a gold jacket some day.

 

 

Yep, the Chiefs absolutely crapped themselves.   It was pretty standard Belichick formula when they are overmatched.   They come out with a great game plan......play physical.......and watch the opponent stumble and panic themselves into a big hole.    Then by the time the opponent re-gains their composure it ends up being too little, too late.    

 

The Bills offense doesn't equate at all to Marty Ball.  You are simply drawing a conclusion based on a result.   Or should I say "results".   Both Bills/Chiefs games were abysmal performances by the Bills offense.    Josh Allen isn't a slow processor and the offense isn't simplified for him.............his biggest weakness to this point has been a lack of touch on deep throws.    The Colts, Ravens and Chiefs all identified that and squatted on the Bills passing offense in the playoffs.   That allowed them to defend the Bills short passing game more effectively and physically.  The Colts were literally the worst deep ball defense in football and on a beautiful, warm and windless day the Bills couldn't get over the top on them.   It's something Allen needs to improve significantly on going forward. 

  

[billsfan89]

7 hours ago, ganesh said:

We lost the AFC Championship game because:

* Their OL man handled our DL giving all the time for Mahomes to get to the receivers 

* Their DL man handled our OL making Josh run around for his life, taking bad sacks. 

* Our OL provided no help to the running game to shorten the game and take the pressure of Josh

* Our DL provided no help in keeping the QB (a hurt one) under check. 

 

I think the Bills saw the issue and shored up both the lines.   Their theory - Improving the lines will help fix their weakness in the Run game and getting after the QB

 

The Bills lost the AFCCG also due to the fact that their entire receiving corps was badly hurt. I think that gets over looked. Not saying the Bills would have won had they been mostly healthy but the game would have been more competitive.

[Big Blitz]

I would like to play the AFC championship game again with Diggs not dealing with an oblique tear, Beasley a torn meniscus, and Davis an ankle sprain.   

 

And the refs that called the Super Bowl.  

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Bills lost the AFCCG also due to the fact that their entire receiving corps was badly hurt. I think that gets over looked. Not saying the Bills would have won had they been mostly healthy but the game would have been more competitive.

 

 

Lol just saw this after my post.  

 

Yes, I do think that the odds we win jump to 50-50. 

 

The defense was so bad that game....yea....probably wouldn’t have mattered.  

[Boxcar]

15 hours ago, Billl said:

Mahomes crapped himself to the tune of 300 yards, 3 TDs, and no turnovers for a 117 QB rating against the Patriots.  Now I’ll grant you that he was confused by the NE defense in the first half, but he adjusted and put up 31 points in the second half.  It’s hard to beat a team by 3 TDs when that team scores 37 points.
 

Allen couldn’t get anything going at all until mop up time after it was 38-15 in the 4th quarter.  Buffalo didn’t make any offensive adjustments because there weren’t any built into the offense.  
 

I remember being on the other end of that during the Marty Schottenheimer days.  The KC offense was incredibly basic, and come playoff time, Denver was literally calling out our audibles pre-snap and pointing to where the ball was going before we even snapped the ball.  Had our offense been more innovative, we could have taken advantage of their aggressiveness with option routes and such, but Elvis Grbac wasn’t capable of running a complex offense, and Paul Hackett wasn’t exactly Bill Walsh.

 

Daboll runs a system based on a complex offense, but he’s simplified it substantially.  You don’t see a lot of option routes.  There aren’t a dozen different ways he disguises screen passes.  He does mix up the formations a decent amount, but there aren’t a ton of shifts that confuse the defense.  It’s a very vanilla version of what Brady was running in NE.  It still works well because Josh has physical gifts that Brady doesn’t have, but when it’s not working, it’s not like you can just make a bunch of halftime adjustments the way Payton and Brees could or Reid and Mahomes can.  I think you’ll see that develop a bit as Josh continues to learn the position.  He’s still growing as a QB, and right now he still looks like an athlete playing QB at times.  As the game continues to slow down for him, I think he’ll look more like a QB who happens to also be a gifted athlete.  If that happens, he’s going to wear a gold jacket some day.

?? Diggs and Beasley run option routes pretty frequently. What are you talking about?

 

It's pretty simple. Josh couldn't find targets because his best receiver had a torn oblique and his second best had a broken leg. They couldn't create separation.

[dave mcbride]

16 hours ago, Billl said:

Mahomes crapped himself to the tune of 300 yards, 3 TDs, and no turnovers for a 117 QB rating against the Patriots.  Now I’ll grant you that he was confused by the NE defense in the first half, but he adjusted and put up 31 points in the second half.  It’s hard to beat a team by 3 TDs when that team scores 37 points.
 

Allen couldn’t get anything going at all until mop up time after it was 38-15 in the 4th quarter.  Buffalo didn’t make any offensive adjustments because there weren’t any built into the offense.  
 

I remember being on the other end of that during the Marty Schottenheimer days.  The KC offense was incredibly basic, and come playoff time, Denver was literally calling out our audibles pre-snap and pointing to where the ball was going before we even snapped the ball.  Had our offense been more innovative, we could have taken advantage of their aggressiveness with option routes and such, but Elvis Grbac wasn’t capable of running a complex offense, and Paul Hackett wasn’t exactly Bill Walsh.

 

Daboll runs a system based on a complex offense, but he’s simplified it substantially.  You don’t see a lot of option routes.  There aren’t a dozen different ways he disguises screen passes.  He does mix up the formations a decent amount, but there aren’t a ton of shifts that confuse the defense.  It’s a very vanilla version of what Brady was running in NE.  It still works well because Josh has physical gifts that Brady doesn’t have, but when it’s not working, it’s not like you can just make a bunch of halftime adjustments the way Payton and Brees could or Reid and Mahomes can.  I think you’ll see that develop a bit as Josh continues to learn the position.  He’s still growing as a QB, and right now he still looks like an athlete playing QB at times.  As the game continues to slow down for him, I think he’ll look more like a QB who happens to also be a gifted athlete.  If that happens, he’s going to wear a gold jacket some day.

The Bills offense is the opposite of simple. And Beasley runs a ton of option routes! There are articles about it and everything, including a paywalled one from The Athletic. Here’s one from Cover 1: https://www.cover1.net/cole-beasley-option-routes-josh-allens-development-buffalo-bills/. You may want to retract this particular opinion.

[machine gun kelly]

On 5/11/2021 at 7:38 AM, HOUSE said:

We did sign a new punter, Hawk-eye

 

 

WE WANT SOMETHING ELSE!

I couldn’t let you have all the fun House.  How’s you’re leg.  Hawkeye can fix it.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The Bills offense doesn't equate at all to Marty Ball.  You are simply drawing a conclusion based on a result.   Or should I say "results".   Both Bills/Chiefs games were abysmal performances by the Bills offense.    Josh Allen isn't a slow processor and the offense isn't simplified for him.............his biggest weakness to this point has been a lack of touch on deep throws.    

 

Agree with the first sentences. 

Deep throws are a gap, but IMO we were hindered last season by missing John Brown (and having him not be himself when he came back).  Davis isn't fast enough.  McKenzie can't track the ball well enough.  Diggs can play deep - he certainly did in 2019 'sota - but when Allen was under duress, the Bills wound up playing him on short to intermediate routes along with Beas (see Pitts game).   They tried Brown in that role when he lacked his top-end speed coming back but he can't get open against physical coverage.  IMO part of the Bills plan in signing Sanders is to have someone else they can put in that "short stuff" role to free Diggs to go deep.

 

Whether that's a Good Plan or not remains to be seen.

 

I don't know that I'd agree that it's his biggest weakness either.  IMO Allen's biggest weakness is refusing to take what the defense offers him.   They can offer him Motor or a TE in the flats with a 15 yd cushion and he'll be trying to find Diggs or Davis deep. 

 

Here's Josh passing chart off NFL next gen stats for last season.  To my point, he is average or better on deep balls, and way below average on passes to the L in the flat.

 

 

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The Colts, Ravens and Chiefs all identified that and squatted on the Bills passing offense in the playoffs.   That allowed them to defend the Bills short passing game more effectively and physically.  The Colts were literally the worst deep ball defense in football and on a beautiful, warm and windless day the Bills couldn't get over the top on them.   It's something Allen needs to improve significantly on going forward. 

  

 

I think this is a bit of a simplified and revisionist picture - not that I fundamentally disagree Allen's deep ball wasn't the strength the Bills had hoped.  But field position plays into it.  (Also need to define what's "deep" mean to you for meaningful debate)

 

Here are the Bills drive starts in the Colts game:

 

The TD drive on the 2nd possession kicked off with a 36 yd pass to Diggs with no YAC.  Most folks call that a deep ball. 

The TD drive on the 5th possession of the 1st half kicked off with a 37 yd shoestring sideline catch to Gabe Davis.  Most folks call that a deep ball.  Couple plays later another shoestring catch for 19 yds, technically not a deep pass but close.

 

When you're backed up inside your own 10 yd line, it's generally hard to have the time to let deep balls develop.

 

This is what Josh's passing looked like for the entire game.  Most people would call a bunch of these deep passes.

Did he miss a couple shots, yes, he did, but at 74% completion overall, not too many.

 

The Ravens game, of course, was played in a windstorm and it's a point that Josh couldn't complete a deep ball:

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

I don't know if we should be trusting Allen's 'in game' judgment, after finding out he paid $800K for a pad in West Seneca...😇

*
(I'm joking.  There are more than a few that will legitimately make that argument. 🙄)

[Nihilarian]

First off, didn't Brandon Beane just win NFL executive of the year in 2020? 

 

Beane was a rookie GM in 2017 and hired AFTER that draft in April...that is, after the entire scouting staff and GM were fired just after that draft. 

 

When Beane traded with Carolina for Kelvin Benjamin, I rejoiced!  I really liked Kelvin in the draft and he played well in his rookie year. Perhaps Beane thought the Bills coaches could get him to return to his rookie form...and instead Ben fell on his face. Stuff happens with players.

 

Star has been a anchoring force on that D line and was really missed in 2020. Speaking of anchors, how on earth could Beane know that giving an extension In August to a pro bowl, stalwart force at Center like Eric Wood would result in him needing to retire (due to a neck injury) at the end of the season physical in January?

 

You keep picking on a guy who is arguably the very best GM this franchise has ever seen... and that includes Bill Polian!  IMHO   Think Josh Allen! 

 

 

Next, Bills fans keep talking about the Bills receivers being injured in that AFC Championship game. They were! There were also other issues. 

 

What bothers me is the way the offense looked in the playoffs! After beating the Dolphins 56-26 in the last regular season game. While knocking them out of the playoffs. The Buffalo offense against the Colts, Ravens, Chiefs looked somewhat abysmal compared to what they looked like in the regular season, IMO.

 

Bills OC Brian Daboll started his end of season vacation after that Miami game...

 

That Ravens playoff game! Baltimore didn't even blitz like they had in the past which was to the tune of 65% of the defensive snaps (Allen getting sacked 6x in 2019)!

That vaunted Bills high powered scoring offense was held to 10 points for that 2020 playoff game.

 

Not because the Ravens defense was shutting them down either...more like the Bills shot themselves in the foot over and over. Buffalo 16 rushes for 32 yards, no receptions for the Beez and only two targets for him. 

 

In the AFC Championship game the Chiefs were holding the Bills receivers like crazy. Announcer, Tony Romo cited it as "sticky defense".

Then the Chiefs attempted to get away with that against the Bucs in the SB, the Refs kept flagging them for holding. Same thing with the Chiefs O line.  

 

KC in the SB, 11 penalties for 120 yards.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens this season with the Chiefs and Bucs. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep, the Chiefs absolutely crapped themselves.   It was pretty standard Belichick formula when they are overmatched.   They come out with a great game plan......play physical.......and watch the opponent stumble and panic themselves into a big hole.    Then by the time the opponent re-gains their composure it ends up being too little, too late.    

 

The Bills offense doesn't equate at all to Marty Ball.  You are simply drawing a conclusion based on a result.   Or should I say "results".   Both Bills/Chiefs games were abysmal performances by the Bills offense.    Josh Allen isn't a slow processor and the offense isn't simplified for him.............his biggest weakness to this point has been a lack of touch on deep throws.    The Colts, Ravens and Chiefs all identified that and squatted on the Bills passing offense in the playoffs.   That allowed them to defend the Bills short passing game more effectively and physically.  The Colts were literally the worst deep ball defense in football and on a beautiful, warm and windless day the Bills couldn't get over the top on them.   It's something Allen needs to improve significantly on going forward. 

  

Totally agree. While I'm personally stoked we landed Rousseau, I would have loved Terrence Marshall to give Josh a big target to aid that progression. Maybe the WR who went to IR with the shoulder surprises but we shall see.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agree with the first sentences. 

Deep throws are a gap, but IMO we were hindered last season by missing John Brown (and having him not be himself when he came back).  Davis isn't fast enough.  McKenzie can't track the ball well enough.  Diggs can play deep - he certainly did in 2019 'sota - but when Allen was under duress, the Bills wound up playing him on short to intermediate routes along with Beas (see Pitts game).   They tried Brown in that role when he lacked his top-end speed coming back but he can't get open against physical coverage.  IMO part of the Bills plan in signing Sanders is to have someone else they can put in that "short stuff" role to free Diggs to go deep.

 

Whether that's a Good Plan or not remains to be seen.

 

I don't know that I'd agree that it's his biggest weakness either.  IMO Allen's biggest weakness is refusing to take what the defense offers him.   They can offer him Motor or a TE in the flats with a 15 yd cushion and he'll be trying to find Diggs or Davis deep. 

 

Here's Josh passing chart off NFL next gen stats for last season.  To my point, he is average or better on deep balls, and way below average on passes to the L in the flat.

 

 

 

I think this is a bit of a simplified and revisionist picture - not that I fundamentally disagree Allen's deep ball wasn't the strength the Bills had hoped.  But field position plays into it.  (Also need to define what's "deep" mean to you for meaningful debate)

 

Here are the Bills drive starts in the Colts game:

 

The TD drive on the 2nd possession kicked off with a 36 yd pass to Diggs with no YAC.  Most folks call that a deep ball. 

The TD drive on the 5th possession of the 1st half kicked off with a 37 yd shoestring sideline catch to Gabe Davis.  Most folks call that a deep ball.  Couple plays later another shoestring catch for 19 yds, technically not a deep pass but close.

 

When you're backed up inside your own 10 yd line, it's generally hard to have the time to let deep balls develop.

 

This is what Josh's passing looked like for the entire game.  Most people would call a bunch of these deep passes.

Did he miss a couple shots, yes, he did, but at 74% completion overall, not too many.

 

The Ravens game, of course, was played in a windstorm and it's a point that Josh couldn't complete a deep ball:

 

 

 

 

1) I agree about Brown.  I said in-season the threat of his speed was missed.   My hope is also that Sanders is the guy catching the 8 yard passes in front of the sticks and taking all those hits instead of Diggs...........and that Stefon is utilized more vertically like he was in Minnesota.    Completely on the same page there.........I just would like to see a bigger, faster Z long term.  

 

2) And sure, Allen is technically average on long throws.......which isn't good enough for a player with his skillset either.........but as @dave mcbride has also pointed out many times he can throw on a rope what qualifies as a deep ball for most.   The Allen TD throw to Diggs at the end of the Arizona game is a prime example.   That is a near impossible throw for some but a sweet spot for him.   That ability statistically masks the issue.   

 

On deeper air throws....or just going over the top.....he throws a flat and inaccurate ball.   +40 yards in the air should be a thing for the strongest armed QB in the NFL.   But they are not.   He's among the worst in that small subset........but it's meaningful for him because his range is effectively capped by the lack of RAC potential in his deeper throws.   If you are defending Aaron Rodgers a 30 yard air throw to Adams is liable to hit a receiver in stride and lead to a 50 yard house call if you are squatting.......so you are going to give extra space.   Not just on 3rd down.......all day.   This is why it's,  IMO, the biggest obstacle left for Allen as a thrower.    His check down throws to the left.......that would be nice to fix and shouldn't be a challenge.......but the lesser impact of those on a per play basis makes them the lesser of two weaknesses.

 

3) The take regarding teams not respecting the Bills deep ball in the playoffs is of course a simplification of the overall issues......more than 1 adjustment was made.....but it's anything but revisionist.   It was a next-gen stat theme heading into the Colts game.......worst deep ball defense in the entire NFL against a dynamic offense........that wasn't good at the deep ball.   And true to form......despite ideal passing conditions........ the Bills couldn't exploit the Colts greatest weakness and the game turned into a real contest.   The fear of the deep ball is getting beaten with a long throw that ends up in the endzone.    The occasional long throw that turns into a contested type or no-YAC play in the middle of the field is not the same.   Teams didn't respect the Bills over the top in the playoffs, which tightened up the coverage underneath.    The Ravens played the Bills a lot like they had the year before.........their technique created opportunities for the Bills to hit a bunch big plays deep in both games and when they tried to exploit it they were just wasted downs.    Weather played a factor but I don't think they changed their gameplan because of the wind.   They also had great success letting Allen misfire on deep throws in the 2019 game.     

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

3) The take regarding teams not respecting the Bills deep ball in the playoffs is of course a simplification of the overall issues......more than 1 adjustment was made.....but it's anything but revisionist.   It was a next-gen stat theme heading into the Colts game.......worst deep ball defense in the entire NFL against a dynamic offense........that wasn't good at the deep ball.   And true to form......despite ideal passing conditions........ the Bills couldn't exploit the Colts greatest weakness and the game turned into a real contest.   The fear of the deep ball is getting beaten with a long throw that ends up in the endzone.    The occasional long throw that turns into a contested type or no-YAC play in the middle of the field is not the same.   Teams didn't respect the Bills over the top in the playoffs, which tightened up the coverage underneath.    The Ravens played the Bills a lot like they had the year before.........their technique created opportunities for the Bills to hit a bunch big plays deep in both games and when they tried to exploit it they were just wasted downs.    Weather played a factor but I don't think they changed their gameplan because of the wind.   They also had great success letting Allen misfire on deep throws in the 2019 game.     

Allen was like 4/4 with a TD in the Colts game throwing the ball 25+ yards downfield. I think your issue is more with Daboll than Allen.

[Billl]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills offense is the opposite of simple. And Beasley runs a ton of option routes! There are articles about it and everything, including a paywalled one from The Athletic. Here’s one from Cover 1: https://www.cover1.net/cole-beasley-option-routes-josh-allens-development-buffalo-bills/. You may want to retract this particular opinion.

Because of a 2 year old article from before Daboll simplified the offense?  Nah

[dave mcbride]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Because of a 2 year old article from before Daboll simplified the offense?  Nah

Seems to me they actually expanded the option route menu in 2020. But don't take my word for it -- I'll let Beasley himself deliver the words:

 

“It was an option route,” Beasley said. "We’ve worked on that. It was a new add this offseason. We worked on it a lot. I’m glad we finally hit one."

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/analysis-josh-allens-elite-arm-cole-beasleys-savvy-keyed-winning-drive/article_55b7f81e-011b-11eb-9295-9b393d487c9f.html

 

And more, also from 2020: 

 

No quarterback’s gotten better faster than Allen. Two plays showed that Sunday.

One: Mid-third-quarter, Buffalo ball, third-and-goal from the Rams’ 4-yard line. From Allen’s left, his go-to guy, Stefon Diggs, is singled by the Rams’ best corner, Jalen Ramsey. At the snap, Ramsey appears to gamble that the throw will be a typical throw in this part of the field, a “pylon” throw, to the front or back pylon, so he clings to Diggs. I thought Ramsey would have used the sideline to help him while cutting off the front side of the throw. But Diggs turned in and Allen, under extreme pressure, flicked his wrist, the ball landing right in Diggs’ gut. Allen had a split-second to see—for whatever reason—that Ramsey would be giving up the middle of the field, and Allen, about to get creamed, took it. “An option route, and Stefon won, and I gave him a ball where he could go get it,” Allen said. Bills, 28-3.

Two: Late fourth. Rams have come all the way back to lead, 32-28. Third-and-22 at the Buffalo 31. You could feel it slipping away for the Bills, after a big Ram sack and an Allen incompletion. Next play: “Me and Cole [Beasley], we’ve talked about this route many a time,” Allen said. Beasley’s job: find a hole in the defense. 

https://sports.nbcsports.com/2020/09/28/two-plays-that-prove-josh-allen-has-become-a-great-nfl-qb/

 

And vs. SF this year, which discusses Beasley's option routes: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/12/10/22166642/all-22-analysis-how-the-buffalo-bills-offense-outschemed-the-san-francisco-49ers-josh-allen.

 

And the capper, which isn't about option routes but about how much of a challenge the Bills' scheme presents to opponents:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2021/film-room-buffalo-offense

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen was like 4/4 with a TD in the Colts game throwing the ball 25+ yards downfield. I think your issue is more with Daboll than Allen.

 

 

No, it's Allen.

 

I'd like to see them go to a more vertical passing offense eventually, but Daboll can't justify dialing up the shots if Allen doesn't put air under the throws and deliver with touch and timing necessary to stretch the defense.     At this point he can throw thru the defense, but not over it.   It's an important distinction.

 

I understand it's lost on some but I've been thru that on TSW here before.

 

When Chan Gailey's horizontal passing offense got figured out (by the Jets) and teams stopped worrying about Bills WR's running past them and jammed the underneath passing lanes..........fans on TSW insisted that it wasn't because teams didn't think Fitz could throw the deep ball........after all he had hoisted a 75 yard bomb to TO a couple years earlier.    Yeah, he could throw the ball that far, but he couldn't command 15+ yard throws outside the numbers and defense's recognized it.   Chan was cleverly covering up Fitz arm weakness by keeping the longer yardage throws in the middle of the field(where they were actually much shorter).    Think David Nelson over the middle.   The more difficult NFL throws.....outside the numbers for instance......he had to throw his whole body into them and that lead to inconsistent mechanics and accuracy.    Eventually, after a lot of fighting with me the concept was grasped here on TSW when the media started talking about it.........but before that time even the distinction of how far you could throw the ball and command/control of that throw were not considered entirely different things by the TSW fanbase.

 

The issue with Allen is even more unusual.   He didn't grow up with a lot of high end instruction and because of his incredible arm he developed a habit of throwing everything hard.   He never learned to put air under the ball because he didn't have to.   But the NFL is different.   Windows are tighter and learning how to put air under the ball and deliver it with timing and accuracy that way is a huge weapon to have.    I know he worked on it last season with Jordan Palmer and I am sure he is working on it now.   I think he can master it..........but it doesn't come natural to him.

 

Becoming proficient at it will take a lot of wear and tear off of him and his WR's going forward.    I compare it to LeBron James having to learn to shoot the 3 after years of just running thru and over weaker competition.    He needed to become a proficient long range shooter to take the beating off of his body and extend his career.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

23 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting that several veteran players, including John Brown and Diggs, as well as our FO (Beane etc) have referenced how complicated the Bills offense is.

 

There may be some other explanations than "the Bills offense is pretty simple and Daboll dumbed it down for Josh"

 

 

 

Yea.... the Bills offense is pretty simple is one of the most obviously false statements on this board. 

[Arm of Harm]

On 5/11/2021 at 9:10 AM, Shaw66 said:

Arm -

 

Nice summary.   I have a couple of reactions.   One is that the solutions are long-term, not short-term.   The Bills probably will get some help from the new people they've added, but the real impact of those people in the problem areas is likely not to be seen for a couple of seasons.  The edge rushers probably will see the field in 2021 but like Epenesa, they will be expected to be large contributors in 2022.  Anything more than that is a bonus.  Same with the three offensive linemen - not likely to be impact players in year on.  

 

As I've said in other places, I think your analysis of Edmunds is incorrect.  Edmunds wasn't regularly getting "fooled" in pass coverage.  Edmunds was getting optioned.  Teams began developing route trees that left Edmunds with two guys to cover over the middle - when he chose one, the QB threw the other way.  It wasn't an Edmunds weakness; it was a defensive design weakness.  It will be addressed in coaching - how well remains to be seen.  Edmunds has his weaknesses, but he is pretty consistent in executing his assignment.  He isn't Superman - he can't be in two places at one time.  

 

I have some reactions to your reactions.

 

1) I love to see the emphasis on long-term over short-term. We had short-term, quick fix type thinking during Tom Donahoe, during Marv's time as GM, during the Whaley/Ryan years. Such thinking resulted in the Bills using a lot of early draft picks on first-contract-and-out DBs and RBs. I'm glad those days are over!

 

2) In support of point 1), there are those who believe that the Bills' window to win a Super Bowl will last only as long as Allen's rookie contract. I disagree. I believe our window lasts however long he continues playing like a franchise QB. Some years the breaks won't go your way. In the AFC Championship Game, the Bills were playing with every WR hurt, and with a bad officiating crew which let KC get away with a lot. Maybe a different year the breaks will go the Bills' way. The best approach is to give yourself as many realistic chances as possible to win the Super Bowl, and hope that at least one of those chances pans out. A long-term approach accomplishes that.

 

3) As frustrating as it is to have opposing defenses only put 6 men in the box, the Bills were not a RB away from winning that AFC Championship Game. Without a better effort from the defense victory would have been all but impossible, no matter how well the offense had done. As you point out, a big part of the problem was scheme. That said, it was great to see the Bills address their biggest player weakness on defense (the defensive line) in the draft.

 

4) You are very knowledgeable about football, and your analysis of Edmunds is more likely to be correct than mine.

 

5) Go Bills!

[Meatloaf63]

On 5/11/2021 at 6:36 AM, JGMcD2 said:

Would have been quite interesting to see what would have happened had the refs seen Jones punch Feliciano... 

they saw it and chose to ignore it along with all the defensive holding. During the SB they decided to call it👍

[BigAl2526]

The Bills are counting on low level additions (Rachad Wildgoose, Nick McCloud and Olaijah Griffin) and development of one young player (Dane Jackson) to add competition to the cornerback position.  I think most of us as fans were hoping for a bit more commitment from the Bills to upgrading the spot across from Tre White.  They could also get some help from more pressure from the D-line, but a QB like Tom Brady (whom the Bills will play) that gets rid of the ball in only a couple seconds or a Pat Mahomes (whom the Bills will play ) who makes unscripted plays all over the lot while moving around will likely still give the Bills' secondary fits. 

 

I do like Dane Jackson, and I think he may have more upside than Levi Wallace, a good technician who's always going to be athletically limited.

[TheBeaneBandit]

I'm hoping the June 1st cuts provides a CB or other position of need and Beane swoops in.

[Shaw66]

20 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

4) You are very knowledgeable about football, and your analysis of Edmunds is more likely to be correct than mine.

 

Thanks for the compliment, I don't think I'm all that knowledgeable.  For example, it may be the case that McDermott would tell us, if he were speaking frankly, that Edmunds screwed up a lot in pass coverage last season.  

 

Mostly what I do is try to infer things from what McBeane do and say.   I watch them, ask myself why they'd be doing or not doing things (like exercising the option on Edmunds, or not chasing a running back other than Breida), and try to draw conclusions.  Following that approach, I conclude that they are satisfied with the job Edmunds is doing, because (1) the Bills exercised the option and (2) the Bills seem to be doing absolutely nothing to create serious competition for the job.   I combine that with plays from the championship game where Mahomes clearly was reading Edmunds, and I conclude that the problem people think they see is in the scheme, not the player.   Maybe I'm wrong. 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

The Bills are counting on low level additions (Rachad Wildgoose, Nick McCloud and Olaijah Griffin) and development of one young player (Dane Jackson) to add competition to the cornerback position.  I think most of us as fans were hoping for a bit more commitment from the Bills to upgrading the spot across from Tre White.  They could also get some help from more pressure from the D-line, but a QB like Tom Brady (whom the Bills will play) that gets rid of the ball in only a couple seconds or a Pat Mahomes (whom the Bills will play ) who makes unscripted plays all over the lot while moving around will likely still give the Bills' secondary fits. 

 

I do like Dane Jackson, and I think he may have more upside than Levi Wallace, a good technician who's always going to be athletically limited.

I agree with this, but I also think the fans think there's more of a need at #2 corner than McBeane think.  First, the opponents last season weren't attacking Wallace like he was a liability.   Teams couldn't go after him repeatedly and have success.  They threw to his side more than White's side, I suppose, but that's because of how good White is, not because Wallace is a liability. 

 

Second, I think Wallace plays the total position the way McDermott wants, including run support and the complex zone and zone/man schemes McDermott prefers.  I don't think it's easy to find someone who plays the total position a lot better, except for players who are generally too pricey - free agents or top-of-the-draft rookies.  

 

As long as White is on the other side, I think the Bills will be satisfied with a solid, if not spectacular performer.  If a stud corner falls to them in the first round of the draft, the Bills will take him with great pleasure, but I don't think the Bills think they have a need or a hole there.  

[Eastport bills]

On 5/10/2021 at 11:39 PM, Arm of Harm said:

The Bills had a historic season last year, making it to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in decades. While the team was very good overall, there was still room for improvement.

 

Problem: The OL did not run block well during the regular season. During the postseason it neither run blocked nor pass protected well. The decline during the postseason was caused in large part because some guys were playing hurt. To me that says either a) the backups were hurt also, or b) the coaches thought an injured starter would be better than a healthy backup.

 

Solution: The Bills worked to improve the depth of their OL, using 3rd and 5th round picks on offensive tackles. They also signed Lamp, and took an OG in the 7th. These steps should hopefully improve the depth on the OL, making it less likely they'll be forced to play injured starters. If the light bulb comes on for Lamp, he could challenge for a starting position.

 

Evaluation: the Bills have addressed their depth on the OL, but it's not clear how much they've done to address their problems with run blocking.

 

Problem: Defenses didn't respect the running game.

 

Solution: the Bills brought in Breida to be a home run threat.

 

Evaluation: The problems with the running game were caused in large part by play design, blocking schemes, or the offensive linemen themselves, more so than the RBs. Breida's presence should help, but adding him needs to be part of a larger solution.

 

Problem: lack of pass rush. To the best of my knowledge none of the Bills defensive linemen had 5 or more sacks last season. As usual Jerry Hughes did much better achieving pressures than sacks.

 

Solution: The Bills signed Obada (5.5 sacks last season), a young international player who may not yet have reached his ceiling. They used their first and second round picks on defensive linemen. Star is coming back, and Harrison Phillips will should be healthy, so in theory you'll have guys to play the 1 tech.

 

Evaluation: At least on paper, the Bills have done a rock solid job of upgrading their pass rush.

 

Problem: Lack of pass coverage, especially in the KC playoff game. One of the problems in that game was Edmunds getting fooled too often. Tre White also did not play well that game.

 

Solution: The Bills did not necessarily add any new starters to their linebacker corps or defensive secondary. Maybe the solution lies in more effectively using the players they already have? If Edmunds has great physical tools but gets fooled too easily, maybe the defensive scheme could be modified to simplify his role. 

 

Evaluation: TBD

 

Overall

 

This team has seemingly taken a step forward this year, especially on the defensive line/pass rush. Some of the team's problems are with coaching/scheme, especially the problems involving running plays and pass coverage. It will be interesting to see what solutions the coaching staff will come up with.

Pretty solid analysis but you gave too much credit to our backs. Moss was serviceable as a change of pace inside runner until the injury. Singletary regressed and seemed soft and didn't hit the holes with conviction. Our offense was designed to maximize our strengths with empty sets and quick release passes to great receivers with designed QB runs by the freakish athlete that is Josh. The pass protection was solid not great. With a more explosive running game and anything from the TE position, our offense should be scary with the addition of Sanders. Plenty of high scoring Ws with better run defense and a breakout season from Edmunds in his contract year.

 

[John from Riverside]

17 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Pretty solid analysis but you gave too much credit to our backs. Moss was serviceable as a change of pace inside runner until the injury. Singletary regressed and seemed soft and didn't hit the holes with conviction. Our offense was designed to maximize our strengths with empty sets and quick release passes to great receivers with designed QB runs by the freakish athlete that is Josh. The pass protection was solid not great. With a more explosive running game and anything from the TE position, our offense should be scary with the addition of Sanders. Plenty of high scoring Ws with better run defense and a breakout season from Edmunds in his contract year.

 

You could’ve put Levon bell behind that line we had last year and he would’ve looked the same

[Eastport bills]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You could’ve put Levon bell behind that line we had last year and he would’ve looked the same

Leveon of 4 years ago maybe but he looked shot last year. I disagree with the premise though. Did you see the running of Antonio Williams in the Miami game?  Moss had some succes salting games away during the 7game win streak. I thought the left side of the O-line opened some holes. Cody was not too good, but Mongo and Dawkins were serviceable. Bottom line is the backs had little speed and Devin broke zero tackles. The game plan for Devin was to get him into space with bubble screens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

...I combine that with plays from the championship game where Mahomes clearly was reading Edmunds, and I conclude that the problem people think they see is in the scheme, not the player.   Maybe I'm wrong. 

 

Mahomes was doing more than "reading" Edmunds.  He was using his eyes to manipulate Edmunds and Milano, then throwing the ball into the gaps where they weren't. 

 

This may be one of the places McDermott means when he said they were "outcoached" during the AFCCG - that Bienemy and Mahomes were able to decode the Bills defense so well that they knew just what to do to manipulate the coverage.  But he was able to do it, in large part, because he had time and was not under particular duress.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this, but I also think the fans think there's more of a need at #2 corner than McBeane think.  First, the opponents last season weren't attacking Wallace like he was a liability.   Teams couldn't go after him repeatedly and have success.  They threw to his side more than White's side, I suppose, but that's because of how good White is, not because Wallace is a liability.

 

I think Wallace improved.  But after the first few games (I think it may have been Miami), I remember a press question about the opposing QB "picking on" Wallace, and Frazier responding essentially that Levi needs to make a play, and then they'll stop picking on him.  He kind of looked like a liability at that point.  After the Rams game, he only played 6 snaps then went on IR.

 

The last 4 games and the 3 playoff games, they platooned him quite a bit which doesn't argue happiness with his contributions.  I thought he played better when he was sharing snaps, actually.

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

You could’ve put Levon bell behind that line we had last year and he would’ve looked the same

 

I think there's more to it than that.   The top 3 rushers (Singletary,  Moss and Allen) had very respectable YPA at 4.4, 4.3 and 4.1.  So I think that would suggest the line is capable. 

 

However, I think we would agree, the rushing game didn't pass the eye test.  I think some of that had to do with predictable runs, unsuccessful runs when we needed them and an overall lack of commitment to running. 

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Mahomes was doing more than "reading" Edmunds.  He was using his eyes to manipulate Edmunds and Milano, then throwing the ball into the gaps where they weren't. 

 

This may be one of the places McDermott means when he said they were "outcoached" during the AFCCG - that Bienemy and Mahomes were able to decode the Bills defense so well that they knew just what to do to manipulate the coverage.  But he was able to do it, in large part, because he had time and was not under particular duress.

Well, at least if you believe the announcers, defenders are influenced all the time by the QB's eyes.  

 

But I didn't see Mahomes moving Edmunds into empty space.  I saw Edmunds with two guys in his zone moving in different directions.  

 

Thanks for this comment, and the one about Levi.  Maybe we'll see Jackson platooning there this season. 

 

Still, the Bills aren't showing any great urgency in getting a better corner onto the roster.  Compare the aggressiveness with which Beane pursued wideouts, offensive linemen, and defensive lineman in the past two seasons with what he's done about corner backs.   That says to me that they don't see it as a position of need.  

[SoCal Deek]

You aren’t beating either Brady or Mahomes without a consistent pass rush. I’m hoping they’ve done something (scheme or personnel) to fix that. 

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You aren’t beating either Brady or Mahomes without a consistent pass rush. I’m hoping they’ve done something (scheme or personnel) to fix that. 

They drafted two DE's that can also move inside on passing downs, and got the kid from Carolina in free agency that had 5.5 sacks last year.  Not sure how much more they could have done.

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

They drafted two DE's that can also move inside on passing downs, and got the kid from Carolina in free agency that had 5.5 sacks last year.  Not sure how much more they could have done.

They’ve drafted Oliver, Epinesa and now TWO rookies, and if you add in Star ....it’s sad that we’re still all depending on poor old Jerry Hughes year after year to be our pressure guy. It’s time somebody else steps it up! 

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

They’ve drafted Oliver, Epinesa and now TWO rookies, and if you add in Star ....it’s sad that we’re still all depending on poor old Jerry Hughes year after year to be our pressure guy. It’s time somebody else steps it up! 

I'm optimistic about the guy they got from Carolina.  

[SoCal Deek]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm optimistic about the guy they got from Carolina.  

I’m always optimistic but Beane can’t spend this much draft capital on the defensive line without getting some major production soon. If it was any other Unit on either offense or defense, this Board would be going nuts. The four young guys I listed above represent the top picks we’ve had now for the THREE drafts. That’s a major investment.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m always optimistic but Beane can’t spend this much draft capital on the defensive line without getting some major production soon. If it was any other Unit on either offense or defense, this Board would be going nuts. The four young guys I listed above represent the top picks we’ve had now for the THREE drafts. That’s a major investment.

I agree.  I think Oliver will be good, but the problem is he came in being compared to Donald which is an unfair comparison.  But he'll be a force I think.  I think Epinesa will continue to improve year 2.  And rumor is that Bruce is going to be personally tutoring Rousseau.   

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree.  I think Oliver will be good, but the problem is he came in being compared to Donald which is an unfair comparison.  But he'll be a force I think.  I think Epinesa will continue to improve year 2.  And rumor is that Bruce is going to be personally tutoring Rousseau.   

I was a very big fan of the Oliver pick.  He was literally the best prospect that I thought might fall to us and I was ecstatic when he did.  But he hasn’t consistently performed well enough yet.  The biggest reason I can point to is not unrealistic expectations from fans.  I sure didn’t have those.  It’s that he had to play a lot of 1 tech last season.  He needs to be at 3 tech.  He should spend the majority of his time there this season so we should be able to see what we really have in him.  🤞

[oldmanfan]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

I was a very big fan of the Oliver pick.  He was literally the best prospect that I thought might fall to us and I was ecstatic when he did.  But he hasn’t consistently performed well enough yet.  The biggest reason I can point to is not unrealistic expectations from fans.  I sure didn’t have those.  It’s that he had to play a lot of 1 tech last season.  He needs to be at 3 tech.  He should spend the majority of his time there this season so we should be able to see what we really have in him.  🤞

I agree completely, which is why I was hoping we'd draft a big fat tub of goo as another 1 technique.  Getting Star back will help.  Maybe Phillips will be better as he should be fully recovered from his ACL.  I still anticipate a tub of goo veteran signed before the season starts.

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree completely, which is why I was hoping we'd draft a big fat tub of goo as another 1 technique.  Getting Star back will help.  Maybe Phillips will be better as he should be fully recovered from his ACL.  I still anticipate a tub of goo veteran signed before the season starts.

I agree with that too.  I was really surprised we didn’t draft a 1T.  Who knows what we’ll get out of Star after a year off?  Or Phillips off of injury?   Hopefully both are back to full strength, but I expect little from Star except to take snaps a 1T.  His play since he’s gotten here has been poor IMO.  Maybe Phillips can do the job.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

I agree with that too.  I was really surprised we didn’t draft a 1T.  Who knows what we’ll get out of Star after a year off?  Or Phillips off of injury?   Hopefully both are back to full strength, but I expect little from Star except to take snaps a 1T.  His play since he’s gotten here has been poor IMO.  Maybe Phillips can do the job.

I think Star does what Start gets paid to do, he mucks things up in the middle.  At least McD seems to think he serves a valuable purpose.