Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 The way the draft is looking I think it would be beneficial to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to ensure the Bills get contributors. How this gets accomplished is a bit of a conundrum.. so I got to thinking how to make this work. The idea that sprung to mind was to trade next year's 1st, this year's 2nd, 3rd, 5ths, and 6th for a 2nd next year, and a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year. It would have to be after a few picks go in the 2nd tonight but I think the value is close. It would look something like this when it's all said and done Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives 39 61 73 93 113 161 174 213 2022 2nd 2022 1st The draft is light on talent this year with all of the opt outs and next year should have higher end players available in the second compared to this year. So the drop off isn't as significant losing a first next year since more (better) players will be available. The likelihood of this happening is probably negligible but a man can dream 2 2 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayray808 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 giving up future firsts has to be for better stuff than moving up in the 2nd IMO 8 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, rayray808 said: giving up future firsts has to be for better stuff than moving up in the 2nd IMO I mean we'd be moving up in the 3rd too and getting an early 4th. I just feel like there might be a huge drop off in talent and this would prevent us from missing out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 No need. Maybe a small trade up if Samuel starts falling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) The mere mention of future 1sts kills this discussion immediately. Off the table. Not an option. I wouldnt mind giving up most of the remaining picks this year to move up and get a guy tho. I'd do this: Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives 39 61 73 93 161 174 213 236 Edited April 30, 2021 by DrDawkinstein 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 I wouldnt do this. there are going to be so many players in next years draft due to the extra year of eligibility due to covid. I want to have as many picks as possible for next year 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devilmann Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 This should get interesting pretty quickly so let me get the popcorn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: The mere mention of future 1sts kills this discussion immediately. Off the table. Not an option. I wouldnt mind giving up most of the remaining picks this year to move up and get a guy tho. I'd do this: Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives 39 61 73 93 161 174 213 236 I don't hate it but then those picks absolutely need to be impact players. If it were for friermuth and then a CB2 whoever drops wouldn't be bad. I'd like to keep a 5th and 6th if possible for a 1t and a speedy offensive player 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan5121 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Hermes said: The way the draft is looking I think it would be beneficial to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to ensure the Bills get contributors. How this gets accomplished is a bit of a conundrum.. so I got to thinking how to make this work. The idea that sprung to mind was to trade next year's 1st, this year's 2nd, 3rd, 5ths, and 6th for a 2nd next year, and a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year. It would have to be after a few picks go in the 2nd tonight but I think the value is close. It would look something like this when it's all said and done Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives 39 61 73 93 113 161 174 213 2022 2nd 2022 1st The draft is light on talent this year with all of the opt outs and next year should have higher end players available in the second compared to this year. So the drop off isn't as significant losing a first next year since more (better) players will be available. The likelihood of this happening is probably negligible but a man can dream If next years second round will have more talent than this years second, why in the world would we trade a first (which if the 2nd round is stacked, wouldn’t the 1st be even better) next year to draft in a “light” second round this year? You basically are saying you want to move up in an already weak class. Edited April 30, 2021 by billsfan5121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 No way I give up a first for a 2nd. Especially in this draft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJB Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) Carolina is involved so it makes sense. Edited April 30, 2021 by DJB 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Just now, Hermes said: I don't hate it but then those picks absolutely need to be impact players. If it were for friermuth and then a CB2 whoever drops wouldn't be bad. I'd like to keep a 5th and 6th if possible for a 1t and a speedy offensive player Agreed, and that's pretty much what I'm after. Freiermuth and CB2. Or, CB2 and DT-1T. Good to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said: I wouldnt do this. there are going to be so many players in next years draft due to the extra year of eligibility due to covid. I want to have as many picks as possible for next year We'd still have the same amount of picks and with more players coming out. The talent drop off would probably be comparable from the trade down next year to the trade up this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Why not just swap next years first for this years second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hermes said: We'd still have the same amount of picks and with more players coming out. The talent drop off would probably be comparable from the trade down next year to the trade up this year I agree. I just think there will be a lot more depth at certain positions next year and you could get a guy in round 2 who could have been a round 1 guy the following year and so on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Yikes. We do this then reach for a TE?? no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 I could see combining our 2nd and 3rd (which is 3 players from being a 4th round pick) to get a player who would be a starter by mid-season. I would also very willingly trade any of the remaining picks for a pick in the next higher round next year. We would be ahead by [1] a round [2] by ranking in the round (we will be in the 28-32nd spot and move up to ? 10-15th?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Says Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 I think you are high to think all this could happen. Cant force teams to trade with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Why not just swap next years first for this years second? I'm not thrilled about losing that pick completely. If we do it this way then we still have two 2nds to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 I really like the idea of going up 10-12 spots but not much higher than that. Maybe 61 plus our 2022 3rd, I could live with that but I’d be highly reluctant to give up even slightly more than that. If a stud CB is available though, I’m absolutely down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Georgie said: I think you are high to think all this could happen. Cant force teams to trade with you It's not like I said it was some rumor or bound to happen. Just a thought I had about trading up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 45 minutes ago, Hermes said: The way the draft is looking I think it would be beneficial to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to ensure the Bills get contributors. How this gets accomplished is a bit of a conundrum.. so I got to thinking how to make this work. The idea that sprung to mind was to trade next year's 1st, this year's 2nd, 3rd, 5ths, and 6th for a 2nd next year, and a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year. It would have to be after a few picks go in the 2nd tonight but I think the value is close. It would look something like this when it's all said and done Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives 39 61 73 93 113 161 174 213 2022 2nd 2022 1st The draft is light on talent this year with all of the opt outs and next year should have higher end players available in the second compared to this year. So the drop off isn't as significant losing a first next year since more (better) players will be available. The likelihood of this happening is probably negligible but a man can dream I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls). OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBeaneBandit Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls). OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) We can fix this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 I think there is almost no chance at all that Beane trades any premium picks next year like our first or second. Once we pay Josh, draft is going to be critical to keep restocking talent. We won’t be able to keep retaining guys like we did this year after Josh’s new contract is on the books. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blank Stare Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 If Beane has a guy coming towards him and wants to give up a 5th to move up a couple in the 2nd or 4-5 spots in the 3rd fine. Anything more in this weird draft is a big No for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls). OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) Those were my thoughts exactly! Although I didn't necessarily convey them like you did here. It's obviously risky and there's almost a zero percent chance of it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: If Beane has a guy coming towards him and wants to give up a 5th to move up a couple in the 2nd or 4-5 spots in the 3rd fine. Anything more in this weird draft is a big No for me. I think I’d rather him ride his luck and keep the pick rather than move up from 61 to 59 .... just my opinion... There are going to be some upside guys left in the 5th due to this weird last year ... they value their scouts so let them find someone ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerboski Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) Giving up a future first for a pick in a draft class that hasn’t been properly scouted because of COVID and a small pool of players.... hell no Edited April 30, 2021 by Jerboski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, Hermes said: Those were my thoughts exactly! Although I didn't necessarily convey them like you did here. It's obviously risky and there's almost a zero percent chance of it happening. Would you be happy if the Bills were in Carolina’s position and made such a trade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I think I’d rather him ride his luck and keep the pick rather than move up from 61 to 59 .... just my opinion... There are going to be some upside guys left in the 5th due to this weird last year ... they value their scouts so let them find someone ... I totally agree and hope that's what Beane does. I guess my point was IF he is going to a 5th is the most I would want him to give up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said: The mere mention of future 1sts kills this discussion immediately. Off the table. Not an option. I wouldnt mind giving up most of the remaining picks this year to move up and get a guy tho. I'd do this: Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives McCaffrey 61 93 161 174 213 236 FIFY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Would you be happy if the Bills were in Carolina’s position and made such a trade? I don't know the composition of their roster but I wouldn't be opposed to it, especially if I have a number of late round prospects I feel good about. Realistically this would be the bare minimum it would take for me to do the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Hermes said: I don't know the composition of their roster but I wouldn't be opposed to it, especially if I have a number of late round prospects I feel good about. Realistically this would be the bare minimum it would take for me to do the deal Did you look at a value chart when you put this together? Carolina is giving away about 330 points to move down in the 2nd and 3rd and getting back about 35 with the Bills Day 3 picks... Dont think the Bills late first swap for the Panthers mid 2nd next year ... say 30 for 42 is enough to make up the difference Edit.... sorry ... this doesn’t even factor in the 4th round pick the Bills get as well! Edited April 30, 2021 by Aussie Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Did you look at a value chart when you put this together? Carolina is giving away about 330 points to move down in the 2nd and 3rd and getting back about 35 with the Bills Day 3 picks... Dont think the Bills late first swap for the Panthers mid 2nd next year ... say 30 for 42 is enough to make up the difference Edit.... sorry ... this doesn’t even factor in the 4th round pick the Bills get as well! I didn't. So theoretically the Bills would have to choose to move closer to the middle of the rounds rather than as high up as the Panthers are. Not a terrible trade off. What I find interesting is everyone automatically shooting it down even though if this trade were to happen the Bills would come out on top by quite a bit (the value of a 3rd and 4th?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Just now, Hermes said: I didn't. So theoretically the Bills would have to choose to move closer to the middle of the rounds rather than as high up as the Panthers are. Not a terrible trade off. What I find interesting is everyone automatically shooting it down even though if this trade were to happen the Bills would come out on top by quite a bit (the value of a 3rd and 4th?) It’s just unrealistic... the team trading up has to pay overs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nester Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Next years picks are more valuable then this years picks. This year has so many opt outs and way less info to evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 This is the opposite of what Beane stated - looking to build sustainable success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said: This is the opposite of what Beane stated - looking to build sustainable success. What do you find unsustainable about the trade? If anything I'd say it's more sustainable because the players your drafting this year will be better than you'd get otherwise and next year having a 2nd instead of a 1st wouldn't be tragic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Just now, Hermes said: What do you find unsustainable about the trade? If anything I'd say it's more sustainable because the players your drafting this year will be better than you'd get otherwise and next year having a 2nd instead of a 1st wouldn't be tragic I think player 1 round later next year are likely comparable or better than this year’s crop - at least more known commodities. Add in that many fewer players declared early this year and I’d expect next year’s draft class to be stronger than this year’s. The Bills’ have a very good scouting staff, but the COVID situation this year has largely negated this advantage. I’ll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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