Matt Miller's Team-by-Team Draft Rumors (what he's hearing about the Bills)

[NewEra]

Just now, billieve420 said:

 

Doesn't matter how good of a secondary you have if the pass rush can't get to the QB. Even the best CBs are going to be beat if you can't bring pressure. We struggled bringing pressure with the front 4 without blitzing.

 

I am all for taking whoever is highest on the board at #30 whether that be a CB, DE, or OL as the primary needs. DT, RB, TE, LB, S and WR are secondary.

It doesn’t matter how good of a pass rush you have if the offense does quick passes all game because the opposing defenders aren’t good enough to stick their man for the first 2 seconds.  
 

it goes both ways.  
 

Yes, our pass rush must improve.  No question.  Our coverage (and the coaches confidence in our coverage players) must improve as well.  

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It doesn’t matter how good of a pass rush you have if the offense does quick passes all game because the opposing defenders aren’t good enough to stick their man for the first 2 seconds.  
 

it goes both ways.  
 

Yes, our pass rush must improve.  No question.  Our coverage (and the coaches confidence in our coverage players) must improve as well.  

 

I would rather have a better pass rush than a better #2 corner.  Wallace isn't terrible.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Royale with Cheese

[Reed83HOF]

4 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

It is a huge need.  No way any team should be going into an NFL conference championship game w Levi Wallace as one of your two starting boundary CB's.  His athletic ability to cover in what is now a very heavy passing league is simply not good enuf, and probably will never be.  He can't play press man coverage because he doesn't have the fast twitchiness needed.  We improve our starting CB2, we improve our defense considerably.  

Here's a hot take, I really would look at drafting 2 CBs early and a big fat 1T and be happy with the draft

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I would rather have a better pass rush than a better #2 corner.  Wallace isn't terrible.

Edge guys are meh this year and I would rather not swing an miss. Aj will give us a little bit and I'm hoping Star springs Oliver free and the in turn helps Hughes. 

 

I think better coverage will help the pass rush as well.

 

Side note: I want a disruptive Edge guy more than anything, just not getting in this year in the draft... 

[buffalostu2]

"Beane let's someone slip to the Bills as always" ???????   He trades up all the time.  I don't know why the belief is that Beane sits and takes BPA.   He is pretty aggressive.

[KGun12TD]

2 hours ago, Conlan58 said:

No one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out.

winner!

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Here's a hot take, I really would look at drafting 2 CBs early and a big fat 1T and be happy with the draft

Edge guys are meh this year and I would rather not swing an miss. Aj will give us a little bit and I'm hoping Star springs Oliver free and the in turn helps Hughes. 

 

I think better coverage will help the pass rush as well.

 

Side note: I want a disruptive Edge guy more than anything, just not getting in this year in the draft... 

 

Always BPA but in a dream scenario if both are "equal"....I would rather have the DL.  Interior pressure would help too.

[Rocky Landing]

54 minutes ago, Logic said:

As I previously pointed out in this thread: It would seem to rule out an offensive lineman and, arguably, a developmental pass rusher. It would seem instead to point to a cornerback, receiver, running back, or linebacker instead.

The term "playmaker" as it relates to the draft usually refers to adding some electricity, some speed, some home run threat, a turnover-creator, something like that. So it sort of DOES narrow things down a bit, in my opinion.

 

OK, I'll accept that. (Really hoping for Najee Harris!)

[BuffaloRebound]

Immediately after the Chiefs game when the emotions were still raw, the first thing out of McDermott’s mouth was that Bills needed more speed.  These rumors jive with that.  

[colin]

total smoke screen, we are gonna abdicate our first 3 picks just to throw off the other teams!

 

seriously tho, while pass rush vs coverage is a fair debate, i think given that we have 2 solid safeties, an all pro corner, and a play making slot corner (altho he is not totally consistent in coverage, who is?), the weakness we have at cb2 ends up being a target for the opposing O.  a better pass rush IMO would take oliver and AJ getting better this season, and addison and houghs getting a big refresh, which i suppose can happen.

 

biggest thing to me is that a rookie corner could come in and by like mid season be a solid starting cb2 in our D.  that gets rid of the hole in the backfield, which slows down the o passing, which creates more time to get to the passer, and allows us to maybe take some more chances or disguise things better.

 

unless a total stud falls to 30 at edge (and if one does, i really want to eat my words in this post and pick that guy, i just don't think it's so likely) a pass rusher is more likely to just work his way up a little bit in our DL rotation and get like 30% of snaps by late season, and while it could be a strong impact for those snaps, unless we get our new CB2 later in the draft we still have some holes in coverage.

 

so, based on all of this, i wouldn't be surprised at all that we might take a cb w the 30th pick, but if we take a DE im gonna pretend i knew it and that he's the next freeny

[turftoe]

If the RAS means so much, why on earth did we just sign Bobby Hart?

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I would rather have a better pass rush than a better #2 corner.  Wallace isn't terrible.

I would too.....but reaching for a pass rusher  isn’t the answer.  Wallace is terrible enough where McD obviously doesn’t trust him. Watch the coverage he was in vs the chiefs.  Off off off coverage.  Like not even close to a WR coverage

[Mr. WEO]

A playmaker to be drafted in the first round??  I hope the other GMs aren't reading this!

[MJS]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

it has to be.  The great coaches learn from it.  The coaches that aren’t so great, don’t.  Let’s just hope that McD continues to improve.  I thought he showed a different level aggressiveness last year.  

Yeah, I’m sure it’s all Frazier

McDermott trusts his coaches. I'm sure the level of aggressiveness resulted just as much from Frazier and Daboll as it did from McDermott.

[glazeduck]

15 minutes ago, turftoe said:

If the RAS means so much, why on earth did we just sign Bobby Hart?

Is this a serious question? Bobby Hart is maybe 50/50 to even make the active roster. It's okay to shoot a little higher for that for your draft picks...

[billsfan89]

The Bills are in a good position to simply let the draft come to them. They have a need for a pass rusher and several other areas of "want" such as a CB, NT, TE and RB. I think NT they can get in round 2-5 so take that off the board at pick 30. And as far as TE I am not sure one will fit the bill at pick 30 either so take that off the board. That pretty much leaves the Bills drafting whatever the best player at CB, Pass Rusher or RB is at pick 30. Not a bad place to be in.

[Royale with Cheese]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I would too.....but reaching for a pass rusher  isn’t the answer.  Wallace is terrible enough where McD obviously doesn’t trust him. Watch the coverage he was in vs the chiefs.  Off off off coverage.  Like not even close to a WR coverage

 

I think he McD didn't trust him, he would have sat him and not re-signed him.  I think of course he wants to upgrade that position but I think he's okay if Wallace takes it.  He's been trying to bench him for 2 years but the replacements haven't been better.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think he McD didn't trust him, he would have sat him and not re-signed him.  I think of course he wants to upgrade that position but I think he's okay if Wallace takes it.  He's been trying to bench him for 2 years but the replacements haven't been better.

He didn’t trust anyone last year at cb2, especially vs Kc.  Norman would actually get some reps over wallace and Norman was awful.  Wallace signed for pennies and knows the system.  That’s why he’s back.  Not because they think he’s great....or he would’ve gotten paid more and for more than 1 year.  
 

if Wallace is our #2 cb again, we better seriously upgrade our run game and add a big hitting WR.  Our pass rush isn’t going to miraculously be great. We’ll have to win with O

[Chandler#81]

Good info OP and great comments from other. Yes, KC showed what incredible speed everywhere can do. But I’m on record as saying/believing we’ll trade the pick (plus addition resources) for a proven pass rusher. So if I’m wrong, I’ll go down in a blazing 🔥 Fire. 

 

Wont be the 1st time..

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He didn’t trust anyone last year at cb2, especially vs Kc.  Norman would actually get some reps over wallace and Norman was awful.  Wallace signed for pennies and knows the system.  That’s why he’s back.  Not because they think he’s great....or he would’ve gotten paid more and for more than 1 year.  
 

if Wallace is our #2 cb again, we better seriously upgrade our run game and add a big hitting WR.  Our pass rush isn’t going to miraculously be great. We’ll have to win with O

 

I don't think they think he's great which is why they've been trying to replace him.

 

Since Wallace has been here, we've had Phillip Gaines, EJ Gaines, Kevin Johnson, Josh Norman, Pitts and Dane Jackson at the #2 spots.....

We've kept Wallace.  There's other vets they could have signed for $2.5 million.  

Wallace is a "if you want test the market, that's cool.  Here's our offer, take or leave it".  He will be in the mix to start next year if we don't go corner early.

 

 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't think they think he's great which is why they've been trying to replace him.

 

Since Wallace has been here, we've had Phillip Gaines, EJ Gaines, Kevin Johnson, Josh Norman, Pitts and Dane Jackson at the #2 spots.....

We've kept Wallace.  There's other vets they could have signed for $2.5 million.  

Wallace is a "if you want test the market, that's cool.  Here's our offer, take or leave it".  He will be in the mix to start next year if we don't go corner early.

 

 

For sure.  I think he’s likely going to start even if we draft corner @30, with the rookie hopefully taking over as the season goes on. 
 

My point is, he should upgrade our cb2 if we want to be able to play the chiefs honest.  Whatever D we saw vs them in the AFCCG, I hope to never see again 🤮 

[Solomon Grundy]

58 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Here's a hot take, I really would look at drafting 2 CBs early and a big fat 1T and be happy with the draft

Edge guys are meh this year and I would rather not swing an miss. Aj will give us a little bit and I'm hoping Star springs Oliver free and the in turn helps Hughes. 

 

I think better coverage will help the pass rush as well.

 

Side note: I want a disruptive Edge guy more than anything, just not getting in this year in the draft... 

I was thinking that they draft 2 big DTs later(Slaton, Neal Jr). I'd prefer to acquire a disruptive interior lineman... cough... Geno Atkins... If they stay at 30, this player has to contribute from day one. Either on a rotational basis or starter. I'm a big Zaven Collins fan. He was a playmaker at Tulsa. I also think Terrance Marshall can come in and contribute. One player who's not getting the attention he deserves is Quincy Roche. Not at 30, but would love him as a pass rush specialist a la Shaq Barrett. 

35 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Is this a serious question? Bobby Hart is maybe 50/50 to even make the active roster. It's okay to shoot a little higher for that for your draft picks...

I consider him training camp fodder

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

For sure.  I think he’s likely going to start even if we draft corner @30, with the rookie hopefully taking over as the season goes on. 
 

My point is, he should upgrade our cb2 if we want to be able to play the chiefs honest.  Whatever D we saw vs them in the AFCCG, I hope to never see again 🤮 

 

Yeah that game plan was terrible.  Especially since KC's offense was struggling for the last month of the season.  Then TB completely destroyed their MASH unit offensive line.

 

If I had to guess, I would say Assante Samuel Jr if available at 30 will be our pick.  Or if he's still there around pick 22 and up...I can see Beane making the move up.

I also like the UGA defensive end but I don't think they'll trade up for him.  Maybe if he's still there at 30.

[turftoe]

36 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Is this a serious question? Bobby Hart is maybe 50/50 to even make the active roster. It's okay to shoot a little higher for that for your draft picks...

Yes, it was a serious question. Ok then, why was AJ Epenesa drafted that high? His RAS was 4.43, I think. 

[Success]

I'm ready to be surprised or even shocked by whoever we pick, though my draft routine is always the same. I immediately google scouting assessments, only focus on the "strengths" section, and within 5 minutes think it's another coup for Beane.

 

 

[todd]

After Star, we're extremely weak at a 1 technique DT. I'm hoping we can find one. The way we rotate, there needs to be good depth behind Star. We saw what happened last year when he wasn't there. The D wasn't as good, and we had trouble getting to the QB. So that's what I'm hoping for somewhere in the remaining offseason.

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yeah that game plan was terrible.  Especially since KC's offense was struggling for the last month of the season.  Then TB completely destroyed their MASH unit offensive line.

 

If I had to guess, I would say Assante Samuel Jr if available at 30 will be our pick.  Or if he's still there around pick 22 and up...I can see Beane making the move up.

I also like the UGA defensive end but I don't think they'll trade up for him.  Maybe if he's still there at 30.

I sure hope Samuel isn’t the pick @30.  I’m not a fan of the guy in a zone.  We need a corner with some height, length and speed imo.  If we go corner I hope it’s Newsome.  If he’s gone, I’d take Tyson Campbell.  I’d take stokes or Joseph ahead of Samuel too.

 

ojulari would be a nice eventual replacement for Jerry.  He’s better vs the run than people give him credit for too. I just don’t think he’s what this FO looks for in a DE.  6’2

[glazeduck]

14 minutes ago, turftoe said:

Yes, it was a serious question. Ok then, why was AJ Epenesa drafted that high? His RAS was 4.43, I think. 

You're asking the wrong guy on that one, I wasn't a big fan of his, but I would guess versatility, great tape, endless motor, consistent production in a big-time league, room for growth and positional need were among the reasons? 

 

BTW my "is this a serious question" was a serious question, I didn't mean offense, just wasn't sure if you were joking or not...

 

RAS and athleticism are becoming big determinants in draft slating but they can't be the only determinants.

Edited April 14, 2021 by glazeduck

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I sure hope Samuel isn’t the pick @30.  I’m not a fan of the guy in a zone.  We need a corner with some height, length and speed imo.  If we go corner I hope it’s Newsome.  If he’s gone, I’d take Tyson Campbell.  I’d take stokes or Joseph ahead of Samuel too.

 

ojulari would be a nice eventual replacement for Jerry.  He’s better vs the run than people give him credit for too. I just don’t think he’s what this FO looks for in a DE.  6’2

 

I was going with Samuel just because I've heard his name in many Bills related podcasts.  I don't know anything about him except his dad was good.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I was going with Samuel just because I've heard his name in many Bills related podcasts.  I don't know anything about him except his dad was good.

Copy that.  I’ve watched a bit of his tape.  Decent player and I’d like him if we needed a man slot guy, or man cover guy in general. I don’t like him for our scheme though.  Give me some length and speed on the outside 

[DCOrange]

The "playmaker is vague" comments are kinda odd considering a sentence or two later, he specifically said he's hearing a YAC receiver, 3 down back, and speedy corner. Aside from naming specific names, that's pretty specific. Focusing on YAC receivers that might be available, the tops in the class statistically speaking are (in order of YAC/rec, and some scouting notes from PFF's draft guide):

1. D'Wayne Eskridge - 14.4 - 5'9", 190 lbs, he's considered to have pretty poor hands, run pretty poor routes, and doesn't make people miss, but he has a lot of speed.
2. Anthony Schwartz - 9.0 - 6'0", 186 lbs, "fastest WR in the class, no debate", "not a receiver, no feel for route running or ball skills", doesn't make people miss but his speed allows him to just outrun people
3. Cade Johnson - 9.0 (in 2019) - 6'0", 184 lbs, an older prospect so might not be a priority for Beane, good acceleration and plays with no fear.
4. Amari Rodgers - 8.0 - 5'10", 212 lbs, tied for 7th most missed tackles forced, regarded as having very good hands but pretty poor route running, PFF thinks he may be used as a RB in the NFL.
5. Jaelon Darden - 7.7 - Only 5'8" and 174 lbs, he led the country in missed tackles forced at the WR position and put up 1,190 yards and 19 TDs this year (granted against lower level competition than other prospects)
6. Rondale Moore - 7.0 - 5'7", 180 lbs, freak of nature athlete with great production, good at running the few routes Purdue used him for, and good hands, but he's barely played the last two years due to injuries and a lot of his production came off of screens which generally hasn't been a big part of our offense.
7. Kadarius Toney - 6.8 - 6'0", 193 lbs, elite athletic scores, "some might say he has generational YAC abilities", moves in a way that nobody else really does, great hands, elite acceleration but top speed isn't anything special, "wholly unpolished route-runner", dealt with injury issues his first 3 years of college

23 minutes ago, todd said:

After Star, we're extremely weak at a 1 technique DT. I'm hoping we can find one. The way we rotate, there needs to be good depth behind Star. We saw what happened last year when he wasn't there. The D wasn't as good, and we had trouble getting to the QB. So that's what I'm hoping for somewhere in the remaining offseason.

Pretty much everyone I follow on draft twitter has basically said no matter how desperate you are, you should just skip this year's class of one-tech DTs lol.

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Etienne can’t pass block so must be Harris. No way they put him out there on 3rd down in this offense if he can’t pass block 

Lots of good YAC options - Elijah Moore In the 1st 

Speedy CB is a straight up NEED

 

Maybe Javonte Williams? 

[mannc]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Etienne can’t pass block so must be Harris. No way they put him out there on 3rd down in this offense if he can’t pass block 

Lots of good YAC options - Elijah Moore In the 1st 

Speedy CB is a straight up NEED

They already have two slow RBs; they don’t need to add Harris.  

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

After being aggressive the entire season (and to start the AFCCG going for it on 4th down on our 1st possession) McD reverted back to his old tendencies, kicking FGs while the oppostion scores TD after TD.  Coaching not to lose as opposed to coaching to win the game.  
 

the afccg showed me that we need a better CB2.  McD was coaching scared on D.  Almost as if he had zero confidence in the players in coverage.  We didn’t have a defender in position to stop one pass the entire game. That was the worst defensive performance we had all year and it looked like (to me) that McD was worried about getting beat overtop on every play.

 

Also covering TEs was a problem all season and really noticeable against KC.

 

Not sure if was role limitations within the scheme that prevented the Bills from matching up with the right personnel, or the lack of player(s) with that ability.

 

Pressure and coverage.... a corner opposite White and shoring up their 1-tech position would help too.

 

They should be able to address the 1-T position in later rounds, but there is usually a run on good DB's.

 

I give up trying to guess which direction Beane is going to go in the 1st. He has surprised me each year and his penchant for moving around with trades makes it hard to pin his draft position.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2021 by WideNine

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Maybe Javonte Williams? 

Too slow

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, mannc said:

Too slow

 

 

No RAS for Najee Harris since he didn't do athletic testing, but needless to say, Javonte and Etienne would both represent a massive upgrade in the athleticism department over Moss/Singletary (though I still hate the idea of taking a RB this year anyways).

Edited April 14, 2021 by DCOrange

[Motorin']

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

Too slow

 

Idk, I think he has top end acceleration. While his top gear isn't break away, he gets to his top gear as fast. 

 

He has a better 3 cone and shuttle than Alvin Kamara (at Kamara's pro day) and the same 40.

[bigK14094]

The only indicator I believe predraft is when a franchise talks multiple times to a potential draftee.   That is time spent, and means serious interest. imho.

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

 

No RAS for Najee Harris since he didn't do athletic testing, but needless to say, Javonte and Etienne would both represent a massive upgrade in the athleticism department over Moss/Singletary (though I still hate the idea of taking a RB this year anyways).

I’d be good with Etienne...

[BuffaloRebound]

I could see a guy like rondale Moore at pick 30 before a RB.  

[glazeduck]

This year, with ALL visits being over video chat, will be a really interesting test against the "visits=interest" theory. If I'm a GM, I'm actively wanting guys I'm pretending-but-not-really-interested-in to let reporters know that I've been in contact with them, and I'm wanting guys that I really want to absolutely say NOTHING about my contact with them.

I wouldn't be altogether surprised if there's actually a negative correlation this year, to that end. Should be interesting! 

Edited April 14, 2021 by glazeduck