For the "Anti-Melifonwu" Crowd

[glazeduck]

I posted yesterday that I thought he'd probably be the next CB taken after Farley and Newsome... 

 

I don't have him on my board that high, but I do believe that Buffalo has the luxury of being able to take a guy they can develop through the season with the logic that we're probably looking at a 10 or 11 win season even if we're not drafting immediate difference makers... If those guys can be difference makers by the time the playoffs roll around, it's a risk well worth taking.

Meli is raw, but in super rare company when it comes to body type and movement. Not a lot of misses on that list...

 

 

[H2o]

Meh. He's a great athlete, but so was his brother. I wouldn't use a first on him. 2nd? Ehhhhh, idk. 3rd? Sure. 

[Mojo44]

5 minutes ago, H2o said:

Meh. He's a great athlete, but so was his brother. I wouldn't use a first on him. 2nd? Ehhhhh, idk. 3rd? Sure. 

He won’t last until the third round. And anything about his brother is completely irrelevant to this topic. I’d love it if he was there for the Bills in the second. 

[wppete]

2nd Round is too high. Would be ok in 3rd or 4th if we trade up. The value isn’t there, better players to be had in the 2nd. 

[H2o]

1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:

He won’t last until the third round. And anything about his brother is completely irrelevant to this topic. I’d love it if he was there for the Bills in the second. 

Actually, it is relevant. They are both great athletes who were raw at the position coming out of college. That doesn't always translate to success, the fact you are a great athlete. I'd hate the pick in the 1st and be skeptical in the 2nd. If they use a 3rd or later then I'd be alright with that depending on who else was on the board at the time. 

[NewEra]

Too bad we won’t know what his 40 time really is. 
 

if he’s the pick in rd 2, I wouldn’t be upset. I wouldn’t be happy if he’s the pick at 30

[Mojo44]

3 minutes ago, H2o said:

Actually, it is relevant. They are both great athletes who were raw at the position coming out of college. That doesn't always translate to success, the fact you are a great athlete. I'd hate the pick in the 1st and be skeptical in the 2nd. If they use a 3rd or later then I'd be alright with that depending on who else was on the board at the time. 

No, it is irrelevant because their individual players with different skill sets and different mentalities. Here’s one example of many in the history of sports. Tommy Aaron was a decent major league ball player. His brother was Hank. And remember, the bills second round pick is essentially a high third round pick. So I guess we agree to disagree on how good this guy can be. I like him a lot. And, full disclosure here, it’s been many years since I made an effort to be knowledgeable about college players coming out of the draft. But, as a Syracuse fan living in the area, I got to see him quite a bit. His growth has been remarkable since he has been playing. 

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

No, it is irrelevant because their individual players with different skill sets and different mentalities. Here’s one example of many in the history of sports. Tommy Aaron was a decent major league ball player. His brother was Hank. And remember, the bills second round pick is essentially a high third round pick. So I guess we agree to disagree on how good this guy can be. I like him a lot. And, full disclosure here, it’s been many years since I made an effort to be knowledgeable about college players coming out of the draft. But, as a Syracuse fan living in the area, I got to see him quite a bit. His growth has been remarkable since he has been playing. 

Whether you agree with it or not, a lot of scouts and fans will have that question due to his brother flaming out

[freddyjj]

25 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Not a lot of misses on that list...

Henderson was out of NFL in 3 years with only 1 start and 1 Int for the Jets

Dean and Okudah are not starters yet. 

Jones has been meh so far in DAL and MIA

So Peanut and Ramsey are the real deal.

 

So 50% hit rate 

[Mojo44]

5 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Whether you agree with it or not, a lot of scouts and fans will have that question due to his brother flaming out

OK, check this scenario out. Scouts go to his pro day and he checks high and every single box. Based on your evaluation he’s got a second round grade. This includes not only his athletic ability but his intelligence and his motivation to continue to improve. And then you think to yourself, wait a minute, his brother was a good athlete and didn’t pan out. So we better not draft him.  On the face of it this scenario is ridiculous as far as any scouts coming to that conclusion. Fans, on the other hand, so what?

[gobills404]

Here's a thread on him with film from 14 different plays.

 

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

OK, check this scenario out. Scouts go to his pro day and he checks high and every single box. Based on your evaluation he’s got a second round grade. This includes not only his athletic ability but his intelligence and his motivation to continue to improve. And then you think to yourself, wait a minute, his brother was a good athlete and didn’t pan out. So we better not draft him.  On the face of it this scenario is ridiculous as far as any scouts coming to that conclusion. Fans, on the other hand, so what?

I’m just saying it’s human nature regardless of profession. Obviously someone is going to take a chance pretty high on him for his athletic traits. The question is how high. A team at the beginning of the 2nd round might say man if he hits he’s one of the best DBs in the game and it’s worth a gamble. 
 

Another team might say hey to what we know maybe we’ll take another guy here with a higher floor. I think Beane has shown he’ll take high tools guys and hope their developed. I just don’t see the Bills in his range unless they trade down to the mid 2nd round or so

[H2o]

7 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

No, it is irrelevant because their individual players with different skill sets and different mentalities. Here’s one example of many in the history of sports. Tommy Aaron was a decent major league ball player. His brother was Hank. And remember, the bills second round pick is essentially a high third round pick. So I guess we agree to disagree on how good this guy can be. I like him a lot. And, full disclosure here, it’s been many years since I made an effort to be knowledgeable about college players coming out of the draft. But, as a Syracuse fan living in the area, I got to see him quite a bit. His growth has been remarkable since he has been playing. 

Individual players, with similar athletic traits, who seemingly improved throughout their college careers statistically. Obi had more INT's if you look into it where as Ifeatu had more passes defensed. You can like him a lot. That is your view. I am skeptical of the guy for my own reasons. We can agree to disagree.  

[Mojo44]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I’m just saying it’s human nature regardless of profession. Obviously someone is going to take a chance pretty high on him for his athletic traits. The question is how high. A team at the beginning of the 2nd round might say man if he hits he’s one of the best DBs in the game and it’s worth a gamble. 
 

Another team might say hey to what we know maybe we’ll take another guy here with a higher floor. I think Beane has shown he’ll take high tools guys and hope their developed. I just don’t see the Bills in his range unless they trade down to the mid 2nd round or so

OK, short and sweet here. It may be basic human nature but it’s not part of what an NFL scout does. It’s not a scout skill set. Any scout with a modicum of competence will not put the kibosh on a prospect because of what some other guy did or didn’t do. Don’t confuse the opinions and leanings of the man on the street with an NFL scout who has a job to do. So I actually do disagree quite strongly with the believe that an NFL team would not draft this person based on how they assess his overall skill level because of what his brother did.

[Motorin']

What about the other SU CB, Trill Williams? Will he last until we pick in the 5th?

[Reed83HOF]

I'm becoming more comfortable with him and Asante Jr...

 

I don't see Beane trading back and he likes physical specimens who are tremendous athletes. If they determine the player is coachable, and he has outstanding athletic traits...you can't discount it.

 

[YattaOkasan]

22 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Henderson was out of NFL in 3 years with only 1 start and 1 Int for the Jets

Dean and Okudah are not starters yet. 

Jones has been meh so far in DAL and MIA

So Peanut and Ramsey are the real deal.

 

So 50% hit rate 

Dean and Okudah are both pretty early in their careers but have been starters at times.  I'm not sure you should mark them as misses.  I also think Byron Jones has been a lot more than meh (hes made a pro bowl, has a 55% career completion % allowed). 

 

So that would be 2 great, 1 good, 1 bad, and 2 incompletes.  I would say 3/4 being good and 50% being great is a really good hit rate.

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

OK, short and sweet here. It may be basic human nature but it’s not part of what an NFL scout does. It’s not a scout skill set. Any scout with a modicum of competence will not put the kibosh on a prospect because of what some other guy did or didn’t do. Don’t confuse the opinions and leanings of the man on the street with an NFL scout who has a job to do. So I actually do disagree quite strongly with the believe that an NFL team would not draft this person based on how they assess his overall skill level because of what his brother did.

I get your high on the guy but I know 2 Guys who scout in the NFL that I still talk to, guys I used to work with in the football industry and are still employed by their teams. It’s very much apart of the thought process. Maybe not a big part but it is. Shouldn’t be but it is. Just like height and weight shouldn’t be at certain positions but an inch too short and they don’t want you or 20 pounds to light etc. 

 

You don’t have to try to convince me every team thinks differently. If the Bills take him I hope they develop him and he turns out great. 

[DCOrange]

1st round would be high for him, but I'd be happy with him in the 2nd and I won't be angry if he's the pick in the 1st. There's very few directions they can go that would make me legitimately angry honestly; the team is set up well right now.

[DCOrange]

37 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Henderson was out of NFL in 3 years with only 1 start and 1 Int for the Jets

Dean and Okudah are not starters yet. 

Jones has been meh so far in DAL and MIA

So Peanut and Ramsey are the real deal.

 

So 50% hit rate 

Jamel Dean is effectively a starter and a good one at that; I believe he graded out as a top 15 corner this year on PFF and the eye test matched that evaluation. Tampa has three good corners. Dean played out wide when they went nickel (which they were in most of the time), but if they started a game in the 3-4, he wasn't credited with the start.

 

Ramsey, Tillman, Jones, and to a lesser extent, Dean are all hits.

 

For the record, I wouldn't be willing to bet on Iffy being a hit, but I do think he's a talented prospect and just pointing out that you're definitely short-changing Dean and Jones.

[GunnerBill]

I am an anti Melifonwu guy. I wouldn't take him for us at #61 and the more I watch him the more I am against him. All the measurables. None of the instincts. 

[glazeduck]

As a player, I have him as a mid/late 2nd round grade. 

I think what needs to be considered though is:

1. Our staff seems to be VERY good at identifying undervalued secondary talent 

2. They also seem to be pretty solid at developing that talent

3. Meli is an absurdly different athlete

4. Per the tweet I posted, there appears to be a pretty dang good hit rate for big-bodied plus athletes at CB recently. 

 

None of that means he'll be a success. It's also probably not the pick that I would make, but if its where the staff chose to go, I could understand it. You're taking a phenomenal athlete and hoping you can mold him into a phenomenal football player -- something they've shown a solid propensity for doing. And again, you have close to, if not a full season of "onramp" for him to develop into the player you're hoping he can become before you really NEED him to perform.

 

Whatever you think of Obi, he was without question an incredibly impressive athlete as well. Add to that, the fact that the Raiders (who drafted Obi) have almost nothing to show for the drafts between 2015-2018, in fact it's almost a 100% bust rate, which to me, speaks as much, if not more to the organizational culture and inability to develop talent, than it does the specific players that are (or in this case, are not) developing.  

[John from Riverside]

We are in a position where we could TOTALLY take a "athlete" and be patient with them if Beane thought the upside was huge.....

 

That is after all.....what we did with Josh Allen

[LeGOATski]

Melifonwu?

 

I don't even know Wu.

 

 

 

 

I'm here all week.

[gonzo1105]

6 hours ago, Mojo44 said:

OK, short and sweet here. It may be basic human nature but it’s not part of what an NFL scout does. It’s not a scout skill set. Any scout with a modicum of competence will not put the kibosh on a prospect because of what some other guy did or didn’t do. Don’t confuse the opinions and leanings of the man on the street with an NFL scout who has a job to do. So I actually do disagree quite strongly with the believe that an NFL team would not draft this person based on how they assess his overall skill level because of what his brother did.

 

Hey man, I decided to reach out to one of my guys who works as an NFL personnel guy. I don't ask a lot esp before the draft cause a lot of guys are tight lipped so I will not give up the team he works for or who he is but this was my exact transcript with him.

 

Me: What do you think of the Melifonwu kid from Syracuse, and would their be any hesitancy to draft him due to his brother flaming out despite his brother's great athletic traits

 

Him: Whats up brother, Just finished with meetings. I never watched him personally but I know we went over him a couple of months ago and he played his way into a draftable grade after his senior bowl performance. We talked about his brother and his involvement(i'm assuming he's his handler)but I dont think there would be any reservations about drafting him directly because of his brother's game.

 

The most interesting thing I took from that convo is that his team is not high on Melifonwu as they gave him a "draftable grade" meaning he is much lower than people think as a 1st or 2nd round pick at least in this one teams eyes.

[ndirish1978]

7 hours ago, H2o said:

Actually, it is relevant. They are both great athletes who were raw at the position coming out of college. That doesn't always translate to success, the fact you are a great athlete. I'd hate the pick in the 1st and be skeptical in the 2nd. If they use a 3rd or later then I'd be alright with that depending on who else was on the board at the time. 

 

Cool, so now we're applying the transitive property to brothers' ability to use physical gifts and harness them in the NFL. Someone should call Gronkowski's brothers and tell them they weren't supposed to suck.

[Reed83HOF]

Put this in the Mock thread, but it obviously fits here since it is this player

 

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility

https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr since Beane has been here)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, glazeduck said:

I posted yesterday that I thought he'd probably be the next CB taken after Farley and Newsome... 

 

I don't have him on my board that high, but I do believe that Buffalo has the luxury of being able to take a guy they can develop through the season with the logic that we're probably looking at a 10 or 11 win season even if we're not drafting immediate difference makers... If those guys can be difference makers by the time the playoffs roll around, it's a risk well worth taking.

Meli is raw, but in super rare company when it comes to body type and movement. Not a lot of misses on that list...

 

 

 

 

A list made by combining a bunch of arbitrarily selected measurements.     

 

His tape is just not good.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A list made by combining a bunch of arbitrarily selected measurements.     

 

His tape is just not good.

 

 

 

This. Putting him on a list with Jalen Ramsey because they have the same measurables when Jalen Ramsey had the best corner tape I have ever seen (he was my #1 overall player in that class) is ludicrous. 

 

Yes the Bills have taken athletes early in the draft.... they have never taken an athlete whose tape was as poor as Melifonwu's. 

[H2o]

8 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Cool, so now we're applying the transitive property to brothers' ability to use physical gifts and harness them in the NFL. Someone should call Gronkowski's brothers and tell them they weren't supposed to suck.

The brothers people keep mentioning were clearly different from one another. These two play the same position, have darn near identical athletic traits, and both were still raw coming out of college. The moral of the story is just because you are a great athlete doesn't mean you will be a successful NFL player. I don't care for Melifonwu as a player that much. And yes, watching him play makes me think of his supremely athletic brother who flamed out. I'd rather have Paulson Adebo (1st choice) or Benjamin St-Juste (2nd choice) in the 3rd or so if we can't get one of the top 3 guys. 

[4merper4mer]

16 hours ago, Mojo44 said:

No, it is irrelevant because their individual players with different skill sets and different mentalities. Here’s one example of many in the history of sports. Tommy Aaron was a decent major league ball player. His brother was Hank. And remember, the bills second round pick is essentially a high third round pick. So I guess we agree to disagree on how good this guy can be. I like him a lot. And, full disclosure here, it’s been many years since I made an effort to be knowledgeable about college players coming out of the draft. But, as a Syracuse fan living in the area, I got to see him quite a bit. His growth has been remarkable since he has been playing. 

My guess is that Marquise Goodwin matches that list of measurables from the initial post.  Should we draft him again but as a corner this time?  
 

If you don’t like comparing him with his brother, how about comparing him with prior athletes whose numbers were good but their tape sucked?  Got a list of NFL successes that fit that profile?  I remember when we were supposed to take that QB from Syracuse at 8.  I can’t even remember his name but the Giants took him.  This isn’t quite that bad but it’s close.

[Coach Tuesday]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A list made by combining a bunch of arbitrarily selected measurements.     

 

His tape is just not good.

 

 

There might be certain positions where you can take an athlete with poor instincts and mold them - TE, defensive line come to mind.

 

Corner is not one of them.

[JMF2006]

It looks like everyone at 30 is some kind of project

 

A 2 year LB

 

A DE with no sacks despite being "a superior athlete"

 

A long and lanky DB with a brother who busted.

 

Maybe they should trade all all the picks this year for picks next year

[GunnerBill]

52 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I remember when we were supposed to take that QB from Syracuse at 8.  I can’t even remember his name but the Giants took him.  This isn’t quite that bad but it’s close.

 

Ryan Nassib. 

[Mojo44]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

My guess is that Marquise Goodwin matches that list of measurables from the initial post.  Should we draft him again but as a corner this time?  
 

If you don’t like comparing him with his brother, how about comparing him with prior athletes whose numbers were good but their tape sucked?  Got a list of NFL successes that fit that profile?  I remember when we were supposed to take that QB from Syracuse at 8.  I can’t even remember his name but the Giants took him.  This isn’t quite that bad but it’s close.

Please read my subsequent post to the one you quoted. With respect, which you said here has no logic. Is measurable’s are quite good and his tape was also very good. If a scout gives him a second round grade they’re not going to knock that down because his brother didn’t pan out even if he had similar measurable‘s. There is simply no predictive value in that kind of illogic.  Frankly, I have no clue why you mention Goodwin Or Nassib which is even more irrelevant to the topic. Let me just state again as basically as I can: an NFL scout will not put the kibosh on a player because of what some other player did or didn’t do.

 

A player is a evaluated  on his own merits and nothing more

Edited April 14, 2021 by Mojo44

[YattaOkasan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. Putting him on a list with Jalen Ramsey because they have the same measurables when Jalen Ramsey had the best corner tape I have ever seen (he was my #1 overall player in that class) is ludicrous. 

 

Yes the Bills have taken athletes early in the draft.... they have never taken an athlete whose tape was as poor as Melifonwu's. 

Agree dont just put him with another guy cause same measurables.  But while I havent seen much tape; he looked good in the UNC game and ok at senior bowl drills.  Where do yall find tape?  I am stuck with Youtube cut ups. 

 

Sorta surprised with as much business as the draft drives that NCAAF doesnt sell All-22 tape access.  

[DCofNC]

I’m no evaluator, nor did I watch him much this year, but he looks fluid, especially for his size and appears to have a pretty good ability to diagnose what’s happening and react quickly.  Physically, he’s awesome, so that’s no problem.  He really looks like he could be an exceptional free safety.  The one thing I do see a lot is he is playing way off the line, which will be used against you in the NFL, not sure if he needs the time/space to see what’s happening or it was a scheme thing.    I could definitely see taking a shot on him, he has elite traits, what that translates to is the big question.  I will say, if McClappy sees something in him, I’d trust it. 

[DCOrange]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. Putting him on a list with Jalen Ramsey because they have the same measurables when Jalen Ramsey had the best corner tape I have ever seen (he was my #1 overall player in that class) is ludicrous. 

 

Yes the Bills have taken athletes early in the draft.... they have never taken an athlete whose tape was as poor as Melifonwu's. 

It's kinda fascinating to see people arriving at polar opposite conclusions with his tape. Usually the tape guys seem to lock on to the same players each year. Iffy seems to be very polarizing with people like yourself and others saying his tape is flat out bad while others like Cover1 love his tape.

 

I personally haven't watched his tape but I did watch a lot of Syracuse games in the moment as I always do and he always looked like a good, not great, prospect to me.

3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree dont just put him with another guy cause same measurables.  But while I havent seen much tape; he looked good in the UNC game and ok at senior bowl drills.  Where do yall find tape?  I am stuck with Youtube cut ups. 

 

Sorta surprised with as much business as the draft drives that NCAAF doesnt sell All-22 tape access.  

I'm not sure how it works with the NFL; I imagine the league itself films the games from the All-22 angle but not sure. College tape is filmed by each school individually and then sent around to other schools for scouting purposes. So I think it's just tougher for them to figure out a way to monetize it since it's so decentralized compared to how I imagine the NFL does it.

 

Having said that, some people are able to use sources to get their hands on All-22 college film and then trade it with others for games that they want. Some people pay others for it. I spoke with one of my favorite film guys on Twitter about it and he said he paid $350 for access to a google drive of film. I was able to find a guy that I could pay $5 a month for it so I ended up paying for two months to get my QB scouting in and then I'm out.

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It's kinda fascinating to see people arriving at polar opposite conclusions with his tape. Usually the tape guys seem to lock on to the same players each year. Iffy seems to be very polarizing with people like yourself and others saying his tape is flat out bad while others like Cover1 love his tape.

 

I personally haven't watched his tape but I did watch a lot of Syracuse games in the moment as I always do and he always looked like a good, not great, prospect to me.

I have heard tape is super hard to find this year which makes some sense.  Re: my UNC comments I have heard he thinks that some of his best tape so there could be that.  

 

This year will probably have a few more surprises in the draft.  However, I think we will see a LOT more late round draft picks be contributors because they werent able to be properly evaluated.  

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It's kinda fascinating to see people arriving at polar opposite conclusions with his tape. Usually the tape guys seem to lock on to the same players each year. Iffy seems to be very polarizing with people like yourself and others saying his tape is flat out bad while others like Cover1 love his tape.

 

I personally haven't watched his tape but I did watch a lot of Syracuse games in the moment as I always do and he always looked like a good, not great, prospect to me.

I'm not sure how it works with the NFL; I imagine the league itself films the games from the All-22 angle but not sure. College tape is filmed by each school individually and then sent around to other schools for scouting purposes. So I think it's just tougher for them to figure out a way to monetize it since it's so decentralized compared to how I imagine the NFL does it.

 

Having said that, some people are able to use sources to get their hands on All-22 college film and then trade it with others for games that they want. Some people pay others for it. I spoke with one of my favorite film guys on Twitter about it and he said he paid $350 for access to a google drive of film. I was able to find a guy that I could pay $5 a month for it so I ended up paying for two months to get my QB scouting in and then I'm out.

So NFL def has All22 for sale.  Its how Erik Turner does his breakdowns (he has gotten in trouble for publishing though).  

 

College sounds like a black market.  Awesome.  When they have to start paying players theyll probably figure this out as a revenue generator.

Edited April 14, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[glazeduck]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A list made by combining a bunch of arbitrarily selected measurements.     

 

His tape is just not good.

 

 

No arguments here. Like I said he wouldn't be my pick, more ore less just see the thought process of leveraging our ability to coach DBs up...

 

Also just thought it'd be an interesting discussion (which it has been)... 15 days can't go by soon enough! LOL