I think Chris Carson is the guy to get at RB, Hunter Henry at TE

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Let me ask you this......

Do you like the idea of adding TE at 10+ mill a year?

 

I like the idea of adding a top talent at TE or dual-threat RB (I personally think TE is the bigger need).

 

Then you do what you need to do to achieve that.  If it's position yourself in the draft to take a top prospect, OK, what it takes.  If it's sign one in FA, OK, what it takes. 

 

I just don't like the strategy of "well, we really need one so our plan consists of take a high-ceiling low-floor guy in the 3rd round and wait 3+ years" backed up by "sign a career backup for $18.75M/$8.3M guaranteed" in Tyler Kroft.  We paid the guy $10.7M for 2 years work and got 18 receptions on 30 targets for 190 yds for it.  Sometimes bargain-hunting works and sometimes it doesn't.

 

Maybe paying a TE who can actually make 50-60 receptions/yr for 600+ yds would be actually more cost-effective - 3.3 - fold more effective if my math is right. 

 

But, maybe they'll roll into camp with Knox, Sweeney, and a bargain-basement FA and a rook 🤷‍♂️.

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Don’t want to be “that guy” but I wouldn’t expect any signings of that tier

[Dr. K]

Don't waste resources on a running back when the O-line needs to get better.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t want to be “that guy” but I wouldn’t expect any signings of that tier

 

It's a good question.  I think if the right guy is interested we might see one, maybe two.  But I kind of expect it more on defense, specifically edge.

[Artem Lipatov]

I don’t expect them spend money on FA RB. It’cheaper to draft another, but I’d try higher than 3rd round.

As for TE I want FA,  but Jonnu Smith from Ten is better for me

[Iiiiiiiiive Got a Feeeelin]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

For a multi-year contract, why not?

I guess i was just thinking in the realms of this season when cap space is tight and we have so many needs.  who knows tho?  free up space for Henry and then rely on the draft for the D needs id be okay with it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Artem Lipatov said:

I don’t expect them spend money on FA RB. It’cheaper to draft another, but I’d try higher than 3rd round.

As for TE I want FA,  but Jonnu Smith from Ten is better for me

 

Say more - why? 

 

Joe Buscaglia of the Athletic did an analysis.  He had this to say about Henry:

Quote

He is a do-it-all, three-down player who makes his team better whenever he is on the field. On top of that, he’s only 26 years old......As a pass-catcher, Henry is remarkably consistent and it all starts with his setup of the route. At the line of scrimmage, Henry shows a quick release against the defender in press-man coverage. If he knows he has the defender on the hook and in trail technique after the release, he can also gain further separation with a deceptive step just before his break......He’ll then get out of the contact quickly and release into his break to gain ample separation, along with the strength to get the defender off his pads.

and about his blocking

Quote

what makes Henry so valuable is how well he blocks. He is not just above-average; he is a great run blocker. He gets out of his stance with a balanced base and attacks the defender, usually controlling his assignment regardless if it’s a defensive end, linebacker or safety. Against defensive linemen, he can withstand a big initial punch from the defender, anchor into the block and move the defender out of the way of the runner. His hand-fighting ability is also very impressive for a tight end

And this to say about Jonnu Smith:

Quote

The first thing that stands out about Smith is his speed once he gets the ball in his hands. If Smith has some room in front of him and can get to a top-end speed, he can turn a small gain into a big one.......He also shows an ability to bring in highlight-reel receptions and fights through contact in contested catch situations, which could be an asset in the red zone. He has above-average skill to change directions and a quick release from the line of scrimmage. As a blocker, Smith controls his assignment and appears above average at the skill. His change of direction skills are also a potential asset on reverses, screens and tosses when Smith has to go seek out a player to block in the open field. Smith is only 25 years old......

but also:

Quote

the biggest concern is all about consistency. While he can make highlight-reel catches, he also is prone to a concentration drop or two. He shows that he can control his assignments as a blocker, but doesn’t always get balanced, bends from his waist and loses control of the defender on some snaps. Smith is a terrific athlete, though his routes are not as crisp as you would like and his footwork isn’t good enough to consistently deceive a defender in man coverage. Many times he just rounds out his route, and the defender can easily read him......Smith is very much a projection and a bit of a risk.

 

I think they're both an upgrade on what we've got.  Spotrac projects $8M/yr for Smith and $10M/yr for Henry.  For that size of contract money, Henry may be closer to what we need.

 

I tend to think they're both pipe-dreams for us fans and Beane will be shopping the bargain basement for a backup plan at TE.

 

[MJS]

Your plan is to sign two of the biggest names at their respective positions in free agency?

 

The Bills do not have cap room for that..

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Iiiiiiiiive Got a Feeeelin said:

I guess i was just thinking in the realms of this season when cap space is tight and we have so many needs.  who knows tho?  free up space for Henry and then rely on the draft for the D needs id be okay with it.

 

I think it would be the same style of contract that had the Cardinals offering Watt a 2 year, $28M contract with a cap hit of $5M this season, or the Bills offering Milano a 4 year, $41.5M contract with an $8M cap hit this year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

Your plan is to sign two of the biggest names at their respective positions in free agency?

 

The Bills do not have cap room for that..

 

I'm not saying all of these or any of these are desireable. But Greg of Cover1 is right that they're feasible

 

 

I'm not saying Beane makes the moves the OP suggested.

But I think he may make 1 or 2 moves that surprise people.

 

A lot depends upon what he likes in the draft.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not saying all of these or any of these are desireable. But Greg of Cover1 is right that they're feasible

 

 

Well, I would be happy with Hunter Henry. I'm not really a fan of playing top dollar to a free agent running back, however.

[OldTimer1960]

While I am in the minority who value RBs, I don’t think that the Bills’ run game woes are attributable to the backs that they already have.  Unless you can find Barry Sanders in his prime, the OL run blocking needs to improve in order to have a better run game.  Way too many times, Moss and Singletary were hit or trying to avoid contact behind the LOS.  A his end FA or draft pick at RB doesn’t solve that problem.

[Artem Lipatov]

 

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Say more - why? 

Because of speed. I watched highlights of Henry and Smith . Jonnu Smith is electric. Btw he scored 2 TDS vs Bills (one Tannehill threw clearly after LOS)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, MJS said:

Well, I would be happy with Hunter Henry. I'm not really a fan of playing top dollar to a free agent running back, however.

 

I could always be wrong, but I don't see Beane pursuing a free agent RB.

 

It's not like he's gonna lay out his off-season plan, but I think he tends to say what he means and mean what he says when he gives a presser.  

 

So when he said "I think it's very unfair to single out the backs for our running problems" but "we never got to the point where teams said we've got to stop their TE from going off", I feel that reflects his assessment that upgrading at TE is a higher priority for the team than upgrading at RB.

Where that upgrade comes from (draft, FA, improvement by a young player, depth chart) 🤷‍♂️

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I like the idea of adding a top talent at TE or dual-threat RB (I personally think TE is the bigger need).

 

Then you do what you need to do to achieve that.  If it's position yourself in the draft to take a top prospect, OK, what it takes.  If it's sign one in FA, OK, what it takes. 

 

I just don't like the strategy of "well, we really need one so our plan consists of take a high-ceiling low-floor guy in the 3rd round and wait 3+ years" backed up by "sign a career backup for $18.75M/$8.3M guaranteed" in Tyler Kroft.  We paid the guy $10.7M for 2 years work and got 18 receptions on 30 targets for 190 yds for it.  Sometimes bargain-hunting works and sometimes it doesn't.

 

Maybe paying a TE who can actually make 50-60 receptions/yr for 600+ yds would be actually more cost-effective - 3.3 - fold more effective if my math is right. 

 

But, maybe they'll roll into camp with Knox, Sweeney, and a bargain-basement FA and a rook 🤷‍♂️.

 

 

I’m not as down on Knox as some here and I don’t see a TE who will be available in the draft that is likely any better than who they have.  Additionally, if you get a TE who catches tons of passes, those receptions will be taking away receptions from Diggs, Beasley or Davis as they already are very unbalanced in pass to run ratio.  
 

I would love a top TE here, but I don’t want to allocate too much $ or draft capital to the position, either, unless you can get a true game changer and there are only a handful of TEs fitting that description.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not as down on Knox as some here and I don’t see a TE who will be available in the draft that is likely any better than who they have.  Additionally, if you get a TE who catches tons of passes, those receptions will be taking away receptions from Diggs, Beasley or Davis as they already are very unbalanced in pass to run ratio.  
 

I would love a top TE here, but I don’t want to allocate too much $ or draft capital to the position, either, unless you can get a true game changer and there are only a handful of TEs fitting that description.

 

Well... to that regard, we did just release John Brown.  So someone has to pick up the targets and receptions he had.

[3rdand12]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I could always be wrong, but I don't see Beane pursuing a free agent RB.

 

It's not like he's gonna lay out his off-season plan, but I think he tends to say what he means and mean what he says when he gives a presser.  

 

So when he said "I think it's very unfair to single out the backs for our running problems" but "we never got to the point where teams said we've got to stop their TE from going off", I feel that reflects his assessment that upgrading at TE is a higher priority for the team than upgrading at RB.

Where that upgrade comes from (draft, FA, improvement by a young player, depth chart) 🤷‍♂️

I recall the quote, as it did stand out.
Henry might be a great asset to Bills offense and Allen.
Hope FO are looking hard at this.

 

 

and Trey Nickerson

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not as down on Knox as some here and I don’t see a TE who will be available in the draft that is likely any better than who they have.  Additionally, if you get a TE who catches tons of passes, those receptions will be taking away receptions from Diggs, Beasley or Davis as they already are very unbalanced in pass to run ratio.  
 

I would love a top TE here, but I don’t want to allocate too much $ or draft capital to the position, either, unless you can get a true game changer and there are only a handful of TEs fitting that description.

Does Henry fit that for you ?

[NewEra]

If we spend over 7M on in FA, it better be on a pass rusher or a beast OL

 

if we are able to sign someone for over 7M, that means we are starting to mortgage our future by restructuring our long term stars, kicking more cap hits down the road, for when allen is getting paid 40M per year. I’m fine with doing that in order to win a SB....as long as we’re adding a pass rusher or a dominant OL to protect 17 and run block.   

[John from Riverside]

We just re signed our entire OL

 

Unless restructures of big contracts are coming........we so poor we cant even afford the "OR"
 in poor

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I would love Henry but after Mongo signing, I don't see any big name signings. I think we could draft a TE high and that would he good too.

 

Hard pass on Carson for me as his salary demands isn't worth the injury risk he comes with

[Norcalbillsfan]

I'm not on board with Carson, I'm not really into paying any FA RB unless it's extremely cheap. Keep RBs on rookie deals for cheap. And Henry is probably gonna be way too expensive. I'd like to have him but someone is going to pay him big money and I don't want it to be us.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

No way on Carson.  He is not that good and injury prone.  He is no better than Moss.  If you want another RB just get one in the draft.  

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I think those big runs came mostly from Josh . 

 

 

Devin Singletary (4.6) and Zach Moss (4.3) both averaged more than the league averaged per carry.........and yet the team average was 4.2........so crediting the success to Allen and pinning the failure on the two lead RB's isn't an argument that holds water.

 

I will say this........the blocking was so underwhelming for such a long stretch of the season in the run game that I felt that late in the season Singletary and Moss stopped trusting it.     They were hit in the hole by unblocked defenders so regularly that they stopped hitting it as hard.   I think we saw that in the finale against the Dolphins when early on I thought the RB's left some yards on the table.....and then when Williams came in he ran with abandon thru those holes and got impressive results.  

 

The backs are plenty capable.......the numbers back it up.......they produce and are strong relative to the league in yards after contact.

 

As for replacing them........Leonard Fournette is a much more impressive beast of a RB than Najee Harris and Travis Etienne...........and he's a career 3.9 ypc RB and only averaged 3.8 last year in Tampa.  

 

If you don't block it up it doesn't matter if you are a generational talent............and if you do block well then your RB doesn't have to be great to put up huge numbers.  

 

 

[billsfan89]

They don't have the cap dollars to spend on a RB. If they go RB it is in the draft and I think they go RB late in the draft. Hunter Henry might be too far out of their price range. I think if this team can squeeze in a vet TE it is going to be Kyle Rudolph who should come cheaper.

[BillsFan1988]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Devin Singletary (4.6) and Zach Moss (4.3) both averaged more than the league averaged per carry.........and yet the team average was 4.2........so crediting the success to Allen and pinning the failure on the two lead RB's isn't an argument that holds water.

 

I will say this........the blocking was so underwhelming for such a long stretch of the season in the run game that I felt that late in the season Singletary and Moss stopped trusting it.     They were hit in the hole by unblocked defenders so regularly that they stopped hitting it as hard.   I think we saw that in the finale against the Dolphins when early on I thought the RB's left some yards on the table.....and then when Williams came in he ran with abandon thru those holes and got impressive results.  

 

The backs are plenty capable.......the numbers back it up.......they produce and are strong relative to the league in yards after contact.

 

As for replacing them........Leonard Fournette is a much more impressive beast of a RB than Najee Harris and Travis Etienne...........and he's a career 3.9 ypc RB and only averaged 3.8 last year in Tampa.  

 

If you don't block it up it doesn't matter if you are a generational talent............and if you do block well then your RB doesn't have to be great to put up huge numbers.  

 

 

Im not pinning all the blame on Singletary and Moss. Im saying they are apart of the blame the other is Daboll vanilla running Schemes and yes of course the run blocking which btw we brought back pretty much the same crew so for us to get better now it's gonna have to be part scheme and part development in Moss and Singletary games. Or we can just hit on a late round pk or maybe even give Ant Will a chance he looks to more explosive then those guys too me. 

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Im not pinning all the blame on Singletary and Moss. Im saying they are apart of the blame the other is Daboll vanilla running Schemes and yes of course the run blocking which btw we brought back pretty much the same crew so for us to get better now it's gonna have to be part scheme and part development in Moss and Singletary games. Or we can just hit on a late round pk or maybe even give Ant Will a chance he looks to more explosive then those guys too me. 

 

 

Yeah like I said though..........if you don't block well, eventually it will compound when your backs get tentative.......then they leave yards on the table.  

 

 It really all starts with blocking.   Even players with extraordinary skills will not be as successful if they don't trust their blocking.

 

Antonio Williams nice performance was more an example of a guy who hadn't been battered by unblocked defenders all year than anything else, IMO.  

 

His college tape was not very impressive.

 

He is not as good as Singletary or Moss but if you block for him and he sees that and believes,  then even he is a probably an adequate RB to win games with.

 

 

Edited March 14, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, SCBills said:

Agree and disagree.   We throw a lot, so there will be times the QB is pressured (even with a good OL), but some of our biggest plays in that game don’t happen if Allen isn’t an absolute physical freak. 

 

 

I'm not going to disagree with you that Allen is a freak and that without that they don't make plays. It's correct.

 

But if the DLs get there a half a second earlier, which they do if the OL isn't as good at pass protection as they were, it's a different story.

[PrimeTime101]

15 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

I find it funny everyone wants another RB.

 

So let's just say they do sign a RB or draft a RB in the first two rounds, what do you do with Singletary, Moss and Williams? They are not dressing 4 for Game Day and probably not 3 either.

I find it funny that your happy with our RB situation

[nucci]

Carson gets hurt every year

[machine gun kelly]

I’m no on Carson.  If we had the $ Jonnu Smith, not

Henry.  Similar talent, younger and more durable.

[Nitro]

Over priced RB who is injury prone?  No thanks.  Money is tight so  you spend wisely.  Henry is not the TE the Bills need