Star L. possible cut?

[yall]

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Everything I've read says it would be a negative cap hit.  They'd owe more money than they'd save.

 

Unless Star has a agreed to give a big chunk of the bonus money back, but that very rarely ever happens.  Likely if he tried the union would be all over him for setting a bad precedent

Edited March 11, 2021 by Hapless Bills Fan
spelling

[dje85]

We would take a 11.8 million cap hit if we cut him. (Unless, I am misreading spotrac) Doesn't make any sense to me. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/star-lotulelei-12294/

Edited March 11, 2021 by dje85

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

 

Doesn't make sense unless there is some type of hurt feelings or the Bills are upset with him opting out and sending a message which doesn't really seem how they do business if they preach about caring about their players and families.

 

Maybe a restructure?

[Boxcar]

Yeah, it would cost 4 million more in cap space to cut him. This is a case where of he wanted to retire or something, the Bills would want to ask him to go along with a fake injury all season.

 

Pretty brutal contract.

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Doesn't make sense unless there is some type of hurt feelings or the Bills are upset with him opting out and sending a message which doesn't really seem how they do business if they preach about caring about their players and families.

 

Maybe a restructure?

They already restructured him last year, which is why they are in the mess they're in now.

[BarleyNY]

Spotrac Star Contract

 

$7.6M cap hit if he’s on the team this season, then a $5.1M dead cap next season if cut before 6/1/22

 

$11.8M dead cap if cut this season before 6/1/21

 

The real problem is his guaranteed (and dead) money.  Total cap hits if he is on the team this season: $12.7M versus $11.8M if he’s not, so it’s only costing the team $900k to have him play.  So unless they can trade him or there is a huge issue with him, he’s here for 2021.

 

Though there is a possibility that they could come to an agreement to part ways where they lessen the money they owe him in exchange for letting him hit the market as a FA.  I doubt he’d do that though.  

Edited March 11, 2021 by BarleyNY
Added info

[Don Otreply]

Not this season, currently the team has something around 18 to 25 mil in cap space from what I’ve read, jmo. I could be wrong of course, but I think your source is mistaken, 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Don Otreply

[Fr. Jerk]

16 minutes ago, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

Yea, mayne, I talked to Terry as well. It's on like Donkey Kong, ya dig?

[Billzgobowlin]

I don't think it will make sense.  Addison and Hughes contracts can be redone but I don't see any other moves.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

A true pay cut or some sort of a creative restructure that either lowers his cap hit this year or lessens the dead cap hit to cut him after this season would be the only good option IMO (thing is, I don't think he has any incentive to do either unless he just wants to help the team out of the goodness of his heart). Cutting Star or him retiring would be a disaster.

 

That's all from a cap standpoint, but I want him back on the field in his steady 1-Tech role as well. 

[TPS]

26 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Spotrac Star Contract

 

$7.6M cap hit if he’s on the team this season, then a $5.1M dead cap next season if cut before 6/1/22

 

$11.8M dead cap if cut this season before 6/1/21

 

The real problem is his guaranteed money.  Total cap hits if he is on the team this season: $12.7M versus $11.8M if he’s not, so it’s only costing the team $900k to have him play.  So unless they can trade him or there is a huge issue with him, he’s here for 2021.

 

Though there is a possibility that they could come to an agreement to part ways where they lessen the money they owe him in exchange for letting him hit the market as a FA.  I doubt he’d do that though.  

So I think you're saying designating him a post-June cut saves them a little money this year, rather than being a significant hit on their cap?

Edited March 11, 2021 by TPS

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Anyone know anything about this rumor that he’s lost a ton of weight?

[fergie's ire]

7 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

A true pay cut or some sort of a creative restructure that either lowers his cap hit this year or lessens the dead cap hit to cut him after this season would be the only good option IMO (thing is, I don't think he has any incentive to do either unless he just wants to help the team out of the goodness of his heart). Cutting Star or him retiring would be a disaster.

 

That's all from a cap standpoint, but I want him back on the field in his steady 1-Tech role as well. 

Agreed.  Although Star's value is hard to see on a stat sheet, I do think his absence made it clear how important he is to the defense.  I do think the Bills want to get better and younger at his position and they should be trying to find his replacement...but for this year we definitely want him.

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

 

 

Makes absolutely zero sense, finanacially or otherwise.

 

Now, if he comes back out of shape or injured or something, hey, anyone can go. But unless that happens, they'll be thrilled to get him back. This year showed clearly how badly they need a big guy in the middle eating blocks. Not that it wasn't obvious before. It was. But this made it even more clear.

 

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Disaster of a contract.

 

 

The contract's fine. The fuss over the contract is kind silly.

 

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

So I think you're saying designating him a post-June cut saves them a little money this year, rather than being a significant hit on their cap?

A post 6/1/21 release would only move $2.6M dead cap to 2022.  The Bills would still have a worse hit this season than if they kept him.  Unless they can trade him or get him to agree to take less for an immediate release, he’s gonna be on the team this season.  I don’t see either happening so he will be here this year.  That should be it though. 

[Thurman#1]

26 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Not this season, currently the team has something around 18 to 25 mil in cap space from what I’ve read, jmo. I could be wrong of course, but I think your source is mistaken, 

 

 

Spotrac says $15M in cap space.. OvertheCaps says $19M. OvertheCap has left a bunch of players, including Jefferson, off their dead cap reckoning. So it's somewhere around $15 to $17M. Both have accounted for all the moves made in the past couple of days with the exception of Butler's pay cut, because they haven't announced how much it is yet.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

32 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Yeah, it would cost 4 million more in cap space to cut him. This is a case where of he wanted to retire or something, the Bills would want to ask him to go along with a fake injury all season.

 

Pretty brutal contract.

They already restructured him last year, which is why they are in the mess they're in now.

 

Yeah - it was a pre-pandemic restructure to get him on the 2020 team, and he opted out.

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

A post 6/1/21 release would only move $2.6M dead cap to 2022.  The Bills would still have a worse hit this season than if they kept him.  Unless they can trade him or get him to agree to take less for an immediate release, he’s gonna be on the team this season.  I don’t see either happening so he will be here this year.  That should be it though. 

 

 

No reason to think this. He could very easily be here for another year or two.

[Mojo44]

10 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Too late for that.

 

And cutting him makes no sense, unless Star has made it known he's not coming back but won't retire.  Which better not happen.

Cottingham would make no sense at all. We have to assume he’s coming back at this point.

 

And, you are right, it is too late for that. Thankfully that nightmare is over and things are better now.

[TPS]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

A post 6/1/21 release would only move $2.6M dead cap to 2022.  The Bills would still have a worse hit this season than if they kept him.  Unless they can trade him or get him to agree to take less for an immediate release, he’s gonna be on the team this season.  I don’t see either happening so he will be here this year.  That should be it though. 

Wouldn't it move $5.2 mil?  He's signed until 2023, so the bonus money from 2022 and 23 ($2.6 mil each year) would be moved to next year.  That's my understanding of how the June 1 cut works, but I'm not certain....?

[1ManRaid]

Ah, the classic "I know a guy, don't ask about it" anonymous source.

 

Well my uncle who works at Nintendo says your friend is full of crap.

[BarleyNY]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No reason to think this. He could very easily be here for another year or two.

His new money does become a lot more reasonable so it will depend on his play.  He is 31 now so I’m not expecting his play to improve.  Ofc maybe the year off will help him.  You never know. 

Edited March 11, 2021 by BarleyNY

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Spotrac says $15M in cap space.. OvertheCaps says $19M. OvertheCap has left a bunch of players, including Jefferson, off their dead cap reckoning. So it's somewhere around $15 to $17M. Both have accounted for all the moves made in the past couple of days with the exception of Butler's pay cut, because they haven't announced how much it is yet.

 

Spotrac hasn't taken Morse's ~$3M cap reduction into account, nor Smith's retirement, nor Butler's reduction.  I figure that's another $7M in cap space.

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

Wouldn't it move $5.2 mil?  He's signed until 2023, so the bonus money from 2022 and 23 ($2.6 mil each year) would be moved to next year.  That's my understanding of how the June 1 cut works, but I'm not certain....?

I’m going by the Spotrac link.  If you click the red x at the right under the season in question it shows the possible cut and trade financials. 

[Thurman#1]

52 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Everything I've read says it would be a negative cap hit.  They'd owe more money than they'd save.

 

Unless Star has a agreed to give a big chunk of the bonus money back, but that very rarely ever happens.  Likely if he tried the union would be all over him for setting a bad president.

 

It's impossible to give money back from bonus. They already borrowed it from future years. It's part of the cap.

 

You can give back future money of course, but not past money.

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Thurman#1

[T master]

He did restructure last year then opted out so his salary was moved to this yr and i just read on Rumblings that his salary is fully guaranteed for this year so as others have said it would be more costly to cut him than it would be to keep him for 1 more season .

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

His new money does become a lot more reasonable so it will depend on his play.  He is 31 now so I’m not expect his play to improve.  Ofc maybe the year off will help him. 

 

Yeah, exactly, it'll depend on his play.

 

Cutting him before the 2022 season would only save them $1.5M. Before the 2023 season about $3.7M. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Spotrac hasn't taken Morse's ~$3M cap reduction into account, nor Smith's retirement, nor Butler's reduction.  I figure that's another $7M in cap space.

Lee Smith hasn’t retired? 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Lee Smith hasn’t retired? 

 

Sorry yes, he hasn't yet so it wouldn't come off Spotrac.  Just saying that's an additional $2.25M the Bills will get back.

[Peace Frog]

1 hour ago, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

Was this info from a source, deep inside the organization?  Asking for a friend.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

22 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

A post 6/1/21 release would only move $2.6M dead cap to 2022.  The Bills would still have a worse hit this season than if they kept him.  Unless they can trade him or get him to agree to take less for an immediate release, he’s gonna be on the team this season.  I don’t see either happening so he will be here this year.  That should be it though. 

Trade or cut has the same effect on the cap

[BuffaloFan68]

I’m looking forward to having Star back in uniform as I am sure our RBs are too. 
Lets Go Buffalo!!!!!

[Doc]

Star has $4.5M of his salary guaranteed this year.  He's not getting cut.

[Thurman#1]

23 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Spotrac hasn't taken Morse's ~$3M cap reduction into account, nor Smith's retirement, nor Butler's reduction.  I figure that's another $7M in cap space.

 

 

Smith hasn't retired yet. He may. They say he's leaning that way. But until he does, of course they won't take that into account. It's still on the cap.

 

As I said, with Butler's reduction, we don't know how much it is, so yes. (EDIT: Ah, I see I hadn't completed the post when you posted, my bad.

 

Ah, but I see you're right on Mitch Morse. Thanks for correcting me there.

 

However, having said, that, if you're counting future stuff like Lee Smith, we'll have to sign our draft class, Corey Bojorquez or a replacement, Matt Barkley or a replacement, Andre Roberts or a replacement, TJ Yeldon or a replacement, Levi Wallace And E.J. Gaines or  replacement CBs, Dean Marlowe or a replacement, Feliciano or a replacement, Boettger or a replacement, McKenzie or a replacement, Taiwan Jones or a replacement and Isaiah McKenzie or a replacement.

 

None of these guys count now against the cap, and a bunch of them will be on the team.

 

Not to mention Matt Milano or a replacement and Daryl Williams or a replacement.

 

Lots of dominoes still to fall. It'll be interesting.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

Smith hasn't retired yet. He may. They say he's leaning that way. But until he does, of course they won't take that into account. It's still on the cap.

 

As I said, with Butler's reduction, we don't know how much it is, so yes. (EDIT: Ah, I see I hadn't completed the post when you posted, my bad.

 

Ah, but I see you're right on Mitch Morse. Thanks for correcting me there.

 

However, having said, that, we'll have to sign our draft class, Corey Bojorquez or a replacement, Matt Barkley or a replacement, Andre Roberts or a replacement, TJ Yeldon or a replacement, Levi Wallace And E.J. Gaines or  replacement CBs, Dean Marlowe or a replacement, Feliciano or a replacement, Boettger or a replacement, McKenzie or a replacement, Taiwan Jones or a replacement and Isaiah McKenzie or a replacement.

 

None of these guys count now against the cap, and a bunch of them will be on the team.

 

Not to mention Matt Milano or a replacement and Daryl Williams or a replacement.

 

Yup.  After the rookies, I expect them to have $16M in cap space, barring a reduction in Addison's salary, or an outright release and any existing restructures (Tre, Dion, etc.).  They'll need about $6M to tag Wallace and Boettger (not sure what they'll do with Bojo because tagging him costs them $2.133M at least).  I don't see them replacing Barkley or Roberts and instead rolling with Fromm and an existing player for returns.  The rest can be league min re-signs outside of Milano (who likely walks) and Williams (no idea what happens there).

[whatdrought]

They could do a injury settlement type of situation, maybe? I don’t know how that would work... 

1 hour ago, Boxcar said:

Yeah, it would cost 4 million more in cap space to cut him. This is a case where of he wanted to retire or something, the Bills would want to ask him to go along with a fake injury all season.

 

Pretty brutal contract.

They already restructured him last year, which is why they are in the mess they're in now.

You wouldn’t even have to fake the injury, you can just put him on the PUP or the NFI and essentially say he isn’t fit enough to play- which is likely if he wants out. 

[SWATeam]

I'm looking forward to seeing Star this year.  Sometimes a year off can really help- especially for big guys.  Should have fresh legs.  I know Incognito said it really helped him.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Boxcar said:

Yeah, it would cost 4 million more in cap space to cut him. This is a case where of he wanted to retire or something, the Bills would want to ask him to go along with a fake injury all season.

 

Pretty brutal contract.

They already restructured him last year, which is why they are in the mess they're in now.

 

They really aren't in a mess.  They have lots of other things they can do to easily free up another $20+ million in cap space that doesn't involve cutting anyone via some simple restructures if they feel the need to.  As it is now they have close to $20 million in cap space...hardly a mess.

[BarleyNY]

40 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade or cut has the same effect on the cap

Not when there is guaranteed future money involved, as is the case with Star’s contract.  He has some guaranteed salary this season. 

Edited March 11, 2021 by BarleyNY

[IgotBILLStopay]

His cap hit is 7.6 mill and deadcap is 11.8 mill and 2021 cash is 5 mill (4.5 guaranteed). He is also guaranteed 2.5 mill in 2022. If he chooses to walk away, he will be leaving 7.0 mill on the table. So cap hit if he walks away will be 4.8 mill (11.8 - 7) and Bills will save 2.8 mill (7.6-4.8) against the cap. Did I get the math right?