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Carson Wentz to the Colts


Brennan Huff

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Cannot believe the Eagles got a 3rd this year and a conditional 2nd that could be a 1st next year for a guy who lacks leadership, played terrible, has shot mechanics, takes tons of sacks and also has the worst contract in football.

 

The Colts should have demanded the Eagles first round pick just for taking him off their hands ala the Brock Osweiler trade.

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46 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Cannot believe the Eagles got a 3rd this year and a conditional 2nd that could be a 1st next year for a guy who lacks leadership, played terrible, has shot mechanics, takes tons of sacks and also has the worst contract in football.

 

The Colts should have demanded the Eagles first round pick just for taking him off their hands ala the Brock Osweiler trade.

 

This is kind of where I am. Look if Reich can revive him maybe it looks like a good deal in a year's time, maybe. But I'm thinking about it like a draft prospect at this point. Where is Carson Wentz's ceiling at this stage? Is it the guy who was in MVP contention before the ACL in 2017? If that is the ceiling is that worth a first and a third? Yep. But where is Carson Wentz's floor at this stage? I think his floor is the guy who frankly was the worst starter in the league and played more like a middling backup in 2020. Forget the surrounding cast. Yes Philly's line was decimated with injury and his receivers were not good, but even on plays where the line blocked and guys uncovered Wentz was awful. That is a guy who you flip a 6th round pick for. So to me the 1st and the 3rd is only value if you get the ceiling. Even a 2nd and a 3rd is a huge overpay unless he is close to that ceiling. If you get close to the floor then it is a major whiff by the Colts. 

 

And this is not a Bills fan trying to talk down a potential opponent. If the Bills were without a QB and had made this trade I'd be trashing them. 

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed. By the time he was benched in Philly he was a completely broken Quarterback. His footwork has become absolutely atrocious, his decision making was disgusting and he had they yips when it came to actually getting the ball out. 

 

This isn't just a case of stick him behind a good line (albeit one that just lost its left tackle) and hey presto. This is a guy who needs rebuilding from the ground up. Confidence, fundamentals, technique, how to play the position. 

 

I'd like a penny for Chris Ballard's thoughts on this. I sense this is a situation where he has just said "okay Frank I trust you". Because a guy as talented in evaluating talent as Ballard can't possibly have looked at the tape and thought "this was just a bad situation in Philly." 

 

He has to no be the worst Quarterback in football which he was in 2020.

 

Even when he has time in the pocket he holds the ball for a fortnight, has to prepare his arm three time before he can actually force the ball out and ends up chucking it down the field when he has 3 open guys underneath.

 

I really do not think people are grasping how big of a job this is for Reich. Wentz is fundamentally broken. 

This feels like your 2021 Justin Jefferson. 

 

I watched more Eagles games than I’d like to admit. I’m sure Ballard would say the same thing. The Eagles entire offense was a disaster. Those guys couldn’t get off the LOS. They couldn’t block. Wentz broke down. 

 

I’m not a huge Wentz guy, never was, I think he can play at the level of the tenth or so best at his position. 

 

Colts didn’t give up much, I bet both are estatic and focused on surrounding him with a few more weapons on the outside. 

 

The rest of that team is solid. This was a very good transition for the Colts. Frank and Ballard have done a great job and I will trust them here.  

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4 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

This feels like your 2021 Justin Jefferson. 

 

I watched more Eagles games than I’d like to admit. I’m sure Ballard would say the same thing. The Eagles entire offense was a disaster. Those guys couldn’t get off the LOS. They couldn’t block. Wentz broke down. 

 

I’m not a huge Wentz guy, never was, I think he can play at the level of the tenth or so best at his position. 

 

Colts didn’t give up much, I bet both are estatic and focused on surrounding him with a few more weapons on the outside. 

 

The rest of that team is solid. This was a very good transition for the Colts. Frank and Ballard have done a great job and I will trust them here.  

 

To the bolded - Ha. Maybe. Although I do want it on record that I never said Jefferson was bad. I said he was good. I just didn't think he could play outside, I thought he was a slot only guy. But hands up he has proven me wrong about that. 

 

I have watched every Eagles game this season, and I watched the all 22 of a handful of them as well. There were dozens of plays every game that were just on Wentz. It is not as simple as just plug him into a different offense with better talent and press go. It really isn't. He needs fundamentally rebuilding. I like Reich and Ballard a lot too. If you were picking GM-HC combos around the league to go forward with the next 5 years they are in the top 5 IMO. They deserve some trust. But man Wentz is a shot in the dark. There is so much there that you have to address, starting with his shattered psyche, then with rebuilding his fundamentals. His footwork last year was 🤢. And then his decision making... which was always an area that needed developing even when he was playing well. He was the worst QB in the league in 2020. I can't think of any other year where the worst starting QB in the NFL one season fetched a 2nd and 3rd round pick after that season. I know Wentz's situation is a little unique but I think people can't forget that 2017 season and so are overvaluing that compared to the slow regression that has happened since.

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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

To the bolded - Ha. Maybe. Although I do want it on record that I never said Jefferson was bad. I said he was good. I just didn't think he could play outside, I thought he was a slot only guy. But hands up he has proven me wrong about that. 

 

I have watched every Eagles game this season, and I watched the all 22 of a handful of them as well. There were dozens of plays every game that were just on Wentz. It is not as simple as just plug him into a different offense with better talent and press go. It really isn't. He needs fundamentally rebuilding. I like Reich and Ballard a lot too. If you were picking GM-HC combos around the league to go forward with the next 5 years they are in the top 5 IMO. They deserve some trust. But man Wentz is a shot in the dark. There is so much there that you have to address, starting with his shattered psyche, then with rebuilding his fundamentals. His footwork last year was 🤢. And then his decision making... which was always an area that needed developing even when he was playing well. He was the worst QB in the league in 2020. I can't think of any other year where the worst starting QB in the NFL one season fetched a 2nd and 3rd round pick after that season. I know Wentz's situation is a little unique but I think people can't forget that 2017 season and so are overvaluing that compared to the slow regression that has happened since.

A lot of your stuff is the same way I felt watching Wentz. He totally melted down and should have been spared sooner. Reich has been around the guy and with the way him and Ballard are running I’m trusting them on this one. 

 

I see it as low low risk high reward. What could have been a better transition from Phillip retiring? Out of all the options, this was pretty good for them. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

A lot of your stuff is the same way I felt watching Wentz. He totally melted down and should have been spared sooner. Reich has been around the guy and with the way him and Ballard are running I’m trusting them on this one. 

 

I see it as low low risk high reward. What could have been a better transition from Phillip retiring? Out of all the options, this was pretty good for them. 

 

 

 

Put Matt Stafford on that team and I'd have had them right in the mix with Buffalo and KC in the AFC. I get trusting Ballard and Reich, I do. I don't agree it is low, low risk with a high reward. I think the price they have paid makes it a medium-high risk and high reward. Like I say the floor is a guy who isn't their starter by the end of 2021. 

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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Put Matt Stafford on that team and I'd have had them right in the mix with Buffalo and KC in the AFC. I get trusting Ballard and Reich, I do. I don't agree it is low, low risk with a high reward. I think the price they have paid makes it a medium-high risk and high reward. Like I say the floor is a guy who isn't their starter by the end of 2021. 

Stafford would have cost a lot more, he is a better player as of now but his body is beat it’s a slow decline from here.

 

If they had Stafford they don’t have their first rounder. They should follow the blue print of the Bills. Trade that first rounder for Kenny Golladay if he is fully healthy, then they are really cooking. 

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6 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Stafford would have cost a lot more, he is a better player as of now but his body is beat it’s a slow decline from here.

 

If they had Stafford they don’t have their first rounder. They should follow the blue print of the Bills. Trade that first rounder for Kenny Golladay if he is fully healthy, then they are really cooking. 

 

Golladay is a FA (although the Lions could tag him, not sure they will). I just think I'd rather not have two first rounders but have Stafford than not have a 3rd this year and a 2nd next and have a guy who I am gambling on being able to revive. And the Colts also traded their 1st rounder for an established player at their biggest need last year in Buckner and it worked out for them too. That is definitely becoming more of a trend. Teams are willing to throw in their 1st for vets so long as they are mid 20s. 

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I know Wentz was terrible last year but people are kind of writing him off a little quick.  The Eagles were a tire fire the past 2 years and Wentz carried them in 2019 to the playoffs.  2020 was a disaster all the way around with the injuries and Wentz just looked horrible as well.  His decision making just seemed atrocious so I'm thinking he was just trying to do too much and he had little help...

 

Riech is a great coach and Wentz played his best under him.  Wouldn't surprise me to see Wentz have a pretty big year again.  Great Oline, Great RB, Top notch coaching.. he will be very good.

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2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So looking back at that draft this now has BOTH Wentz and Goff, the top two picks, one from a small school and one from a major conference, on the move in the same offseason just a few years later. I’ve got to admit that I didn’t see that coming. 

Mahomes and Watson changed the NFL.  Crazy that those 2 weren’t selected until the 10th and 12th picks.  NFL has changed drastically in the last 3-4 years.  All about dynamic traits at the QB position now.  

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Mahomes and Watson changed the NFL.  Crazy that those 2 weren’t selected until the 10th and 12th picks.  NFL has changed drastically in the last 3-4 years.  All about dynamic traits at the QB position now.  

 

And Allen and Jackson the year after..... feels like in future being a middle of the league traditional pocket passer - someone like Jared Goff for instance - might be considered less valuable than a Lamar type who is a less polished passer but has an elite trait. It is more than ever the first question that people are asking of a QB "where is the special?" and if the answer is "well there isn't any but he is a good all rounder" say a Matt Ryan in the past or an Eli Manning teams are looking at that and saying "well I need more."

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And Allen and Jackson the year after..... feels like in future being a middle of the league traditional pocket passer - someone like Jared Goff for instance - might be considered less valuable than a Lamar type who is a less polished passer but has an elite trait. It is more than ever the first question that people are asking of a QB "where is the special?" and if the answer is "well there isn't any but he is a good all rounder" say a Matt Ryan in the past or an Eli Manning teams are looking at that and saying "well I need more."

If the Bills had a choice, and a competent running game, they’d definitely prefer Allen to be more of a pocket passer. 

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21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Same. They were two of the worst 5 starters in the league in 2020 but Wentz looks by far the more fundamentally broken to me. He has the equivalent of a golfer with the yips. Maybe a change of scenery and a reunion with Reich can revive him, but honestly, I'm sceptical. Here is one of my bold predictions for next season very early.... by Thanksgiving Wentz is not the starter.  

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Agreed. By the time he was benched in Philly he was a completely broken Quarterback. His footwork has become absolutely atrocious, his decision making was disgusting and he had they yips when it came to actually getting the ball out.

 

I think people overuse this word "yips".

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1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

If the Bills had a choice, and a competent running game, they’d definitely prefer Allen to be more of a pocket passer. 

Yeah, because he’s got an All World arm and has the arm strength to throw the ball all over the field.  Goff doesn’t have that.  At 43, Brady wins because he can still make all the throws and but mostly because he’s a once in a century team leader at the QB position.  

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I think people overuse this word "yips".

 

Ha maybe, but is the only way I know how to describe what happened to Wentz's release. It was like he had to ready his arm (I want to use a word beginning with c that is banned because it is rude in other contexts) and pump twice before the hand will let go of the ball. There is definitely something going on there IMO.

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is kind of where I am. Look if Reich can revive him maybe it looks like a good deal in a year's time, maybe. But I'm thinking about it like a draft prospect at this point. Where is Carson Wentz's ceiling at this stage? Is it the guy who was in MVP contention before the ACL in 2017? If that is the ceiling is that worth a first and a third? Yep. But where is Carson Wentz's floor at this stage? I think his floor is the guy who frankly was the worst starter in the league and played more like a middling backup in 2020. Forget the surrounding cast. Yes Philly's line was decimated with injury and his receivers were not good, but even on plays where the line blocked and guys uncovered Wentz was awful. That is a guy who you flip a 6th round pick for. So to me the 1st and the 3rd is only value if you get the ceiling. Even a 2nd and a 3rd is a huge overpay unless he is close to that ceiling. If you get close to the floor then it is a major whiff by the Colts. 

 

And this is not a Bills fan trying to talk down a potential opponent. If the Bills were without a QB and had made this trade I'd be trashing them. 

It’s a third and a second/first.

 

Honestly, what QB this year has Carson Wentz’ ceiling in the third round? 
 

The Colts are a playoff team. They aren’t picking top 10 next year unless they really fall apart. 
 

They are taking a shot on a player who was a star under their HC. But they have no choice but to take shots at this stage of the game.

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8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

If the Bills had a choice, and a competent running game, they’d definitely prefer Allen to be more of a pocket passer. 

 

I'm not saying you have to run. That was not my point at all. You have to have some special. Allen has that with the size and the arm as well as the legs. My point was we had a generation where a cerebral Quarterback who could didn't have a special arm or athleticism could succeed in the NFL as long as he understood how to manipulate the pocket - Eli, Matt Ryan... hell even Brady and Brees although I think a pocket passer on that level probably still succeeds... nowadays teams are looking at those sorts of guys (and Goff fits that category) and saying "nah, no special, move on."

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Honestly, what QB this year has Carson Wentz’ ceiling in the third round?

 

None. But I think Stafford did, hell I think Darnold does. Wentz may have had one of the higher upsides of their available options. But his floor is lower than Jacoby Brissett at this stage. 

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17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ha maybe, but is the only way I know how to describe what happened to Wentz's release. It was like he had to ready his arm (I want to use a word beginning with c that is banned because it is rude in other contexts) and pump twice before the hand will let go of the ball. There is definitely something going on there IMO.

 

I have not watched every Eagles game, much less the all-22 of 'em.

 

I have watched Brett Kollman's "What Wentz Wrong?" piece about Wentz and I don't see that.  I do see that his mechanics are overall crap at times.  If you have a chance and might find an example in the aforementioned and point it out to me, would be obliged.

 

I can't disagree that Reich has his work cut out for him, but he's a smart football guy and I'm sure he watched every second of Carson Wentz tape and could possibly even have asked for more (practice tape from the Eagles?) before agreeing to the trade.  So I gotta believe he sees something he thinks he can fix.

 

One question I don't know the answer to:  I know that the coaches get to have an exit meeting with all their players where they review their season and give them a to-do list to work on and an off-season program, but then they are not supposed to have football contact with the players until OTAs.  (They can call and chat about families and dogs and stuff).  When a player is traded, does the receiving team get to bring the player in for something like that in addition to physicals?

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the price they have paid makes it a medium-high risk and high reward. Like I say the floor is a guy who isn't their starter by the end of 2021. 

 

Their saving grace is they can pull Wentz as the starter if halfway through the season it's clear he is not going to help them win a championship. In that case they would have lost a 2nd and a 3rd, which certainly is a lot to get nothing back, but at least they would keep their 1st. The mistake compounds if Wentz doesn't play much better than he has and they play him for the entire season anyways.

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11 hours ago, 97bills said:

Who knows if wentz gets better but I bet my bottom dollar he is thrilled to get out of Philadelphia what a train wreck. Now a oline and a running back and a coach that knows him 

Yup, Wentz is one of the happiest QBs in the league right now,  all the pieces are in place for him to do well, time will tell if he can actually do it, 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I have watched Brett Kollman's "What Wentz Wrong?" piece about Wentz and I don't see that.  I do see that his mechanics are overall crap at times.  If you have a chance and might find an example in the aforementioned and point it out to me, would be obliged.

 

It is there on the very first throw of that video. When you see that pick to Moreau from front on there is like a quarter twitch before the actual wind and release. It is not really pronounced but it is there and there are other plays over the season where it seemed more pronounced on plays where he doesn't actually throw it because he kind of has the twitch and then stops and then invites the pressure onto him. Kollman focuses more on the feet in that video because he pretty much says at the start "well his throwing mechanics have always been not great because of the elongated wind up" which is true.... but even they were worse than in previous years in 2020 with this strange twitch thing. The feet are awful too and again have noticeably regressed. I think mechanically you have to strip him down and start again. If anyone can pull it off Frank Reich can. But personally? I think it is no more than a shot in the dark at this point. 

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On 2/18/2021 at 11:51 AM, MrSarcasm said:

Good trade for the Colts. My opinion is that Wentz is a good QB and his collapse was due to a bad online and poor play calling. The Colts are a perfect fit for him.

 

Disagree, how would you explain his backup Hurtz coming in and looking like an actual professional quarterback.

 

Wentz is done, no respect from his teammates, and clearly doesn't have an NFL caliber work ethic. 

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3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Their saving grace is they can pull Wentz as the starter if halfway through the season it's clear he is not going to help them win a championship. In that case they would have lost a 2nd and a 3rd, which certainly is a lot to get nothing back, but at least they would keep their 1st. The mistake compounds if Wentz doesn't play much better than he has and they play him for the entire season anyways.


 

That is true, but then you gave up a higher 2nd and 3rd and a ton of Cap resources for a failure.

 

The worst case is if Wentz is not very good, but the talent on the Colts (especially on D) is good enough to propel them to the Playoffs and you end up trading a 3rd and a late 1st for a JAG.  Especially since the Jags and Texans look to potentially be bad and the Titans/Colts could end up winning that division despite QB play - based solely on Defense and RBs.

 

It is worth a risk, but it is a big risk and a lot to give up for a guy that has struggled significantly over the last couple of years.

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4 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

That is true, but then you gave up a higher 2nd and 3rd and a ton of Cap resources for a failure.

 

The worst case is if Wentz is not very good, but the talent on the Colts (especially on D) is good enough to propel them to the Playoffs and you end up trading a 3rd and a late 1st for a JAG.  Especially since the Jags and Texans look to potentially be bad and the Titans/Colts could end up winning that division despite QB play - based solely on Defense and RBs.

 

It is worth a risk, but it is a big risk and a lot to give up for a guy that has struggled significantly over the last couple of years.

 

It also tells me the initial returns on Jacob Eason inside the building are not good. Not that I ever though he was a long term starting option but the style of offense they ran here in the wildcard and late in the season where they pound the rock with JTay and then throw off play action into the zone behind the backers? I think if Eason was ever going to fit in the NFL that is it - maybe as a bridge type of guy. 

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3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Their saving grace is they can pull Wentz as the starter if halfway through the season it's clear he is not going to help them win a championship. In that case they would have lost a 2nd and a 3rd, which certainly is a lot to get nothing back, but at least they would keep their 1st. The mistake compounds if Wentz doesn't play much better than he has and they play him for the entire season anyways.

 

I also didn't realize that Wentz has zero dead cap after 2021. I figured since he was on a huge extension he had some dead money in 2022. But no, the Eagles structured that contract in such a fantastic way. They basically had two years of huge dead money and then nothing. 

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2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I also didn't realize that Wentz has zero dead cap after 2021. I figured since he was on a huge extension he had some dead money in 2022. But no, the Eagles structured that contract in such a fantastic way. They basically had two years of huge dead money and then nothing. 

$15m of Wentz’s 2022 salary becomes guaranteed this March so they’d have $15m dead cap in 2022.  

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3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I also didn't realize that Wentz has zero dead cap after 2021. I figured since he was on a huge extension he had some dead money in 2022. But no, the Eagles structured that contract in such a fantastic way. They basically had two years of huge dead money and then nothing. 

 

He does have some dead cap after 2021 but it was signing bonus with stays with Philly cos it has already been paid. There are no salary guarantees after 2021 so it isn't a terrible contract for Indy to take on. 

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

$15m of Wentz’s 2022 salary becomes guaranteed this March so they’d have $15m dead cap in 2022.  

 

This also. Good point. 

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1 hour ago, Jobot said:

 

Disagree, how would you explain his backup Hurtz coming in and looking like an actual professional quarterback.

 

Wentz is done, no respect from his teammates, and clearly doesn't have an NFL caliber work ethic. 

Hurtz for the year had 6TDs and 4 picks with a 52% completion percentage.

 

Wentz had 16 TDs and 14 picks with a 62% completion percentage.

 

Safe to say neither looked good, which might have something to do with the above mentioned.

 

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On 2/18/2021 at 12:49 PM, GETTOTHE50 said:

Darnold or Wentz is among one of the worst debates on here. Both have been ruined by their organizations and both won’t ever fulfill whatever predraft expectations they had.  Besides, how many failed QBs have actually turned it around with an another organization after being traded? I can’t think of any. 
 

 

So far Tannehill is enjoying success plus I'm not sure Darmold is ruined yet. If anyone can get something out of Wentz its Frank Reich. I would not be in too big a rush to write either guy off yet.

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1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I also didn't realize that Wentz has zero dead cap after 2021. I figured since he was on a huge extension he had some dead money in 2022. But no, the Eagles structured that contract in such a fantastic way. They basically had two years of huge dead money and then nothing. 


 

It was not that Philadelphia structured the contract well - because they did not in fact structure it well at all.  It is the fact that the huge signing/roster bonus stays with Philadelphia and accelerates.  It does not follow Wentz to Indy.  Philadelphia would have been way better off having yearly guaranteed roster bonuses that went with the contract instead of the upfront signing bonus.

 

34 million in guaranteed money stayed in Philadelphia and is the only thing that makes this palatable for Indy.

 

This kills Philadelphia, but for just 1 year as all of that money hits in 2021.

 

Indy is protected because after paying the guaranteed 25 million in salary for 2021 - they have the option of cutting him for limited investment and only losing the draft picks.

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1 hour ago, MrSarcasm said:

Hurtz for the year had 6TDs and 4 picks with a 52% completion percentage.

 

Wentz had 16 TDs and 14 picks with a 62% completion percentage.

 

Safe to say neither looked good, which might have something to do with the above mentioned.

 

 

The Eagles are likely going to be bringing in another QB option.       Hurts isn't much of a threat passing

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This could be either a move that makes Reich a hero or it could ultimately cost him his job in Indy. For right now I’m leaning toward the latter. But if that happens I would think we would welcome him back with open arms lol

Just now, BuffaloBills1998 said:

This could be a move that makes Reich a hero or it could ultimately cost him his job in Indy. For right now I’m leaning toward the latter. But if that happens I would think we would welcome him back with open arms lol

 

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56 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

It was not that Philadelphia structured the contract well - because they did not in fact structure it well at all.  It is the fact that the huge signing/roster bonus stays with Philadelphia and accelerates.  It does not follow Wentz to Indy.  Philadelphia would have been way better off having yearly guaranteed roster bonuses that went with the contract instead of the upfront signing bonus.

 

34 million in guaranteed money stayed in Philadelphia and is the only thing that makes this palatable for Indy.

 

This kills Philadelphia, but for just 1 year as all of that money hits in 2021.

 

Indy is protected because after paying the guaranteed 25 million in salary for 2021 - they have the option of cutting him for limited investment and only losing the draft picks.

 

I would have to check but I don't think you can pre-pay a roster bonus for years down the line. So you are asking Wentz in that scenario to take less new money up front. The big signing bonus is invariably cos the players want money up front.  

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would have to check but I don't think you can pre-pay a roster bonus for years down the line. So you are asking Wentz in that scenario to take less new money up front. The big signing bonus is invariably cos the players want money up front.  


 

Totally agree - I am just saying that for that to have been a good deal for Philadelphia- a contract similar to Mahomes with almost all the money tied up in roster bonuses would have been better.

 

For Wentz (and most players) the signing bonus is key as they get that money immediately.  It is also the money that becomes dead in Philadelphia, but makes the Indy side look better.

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