Is Houston showing that even a Franchise QB isn't a guarantee against being bad?

[Sherlock Holmes]

59 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That dude is one of my favorite non Bills of all time...he is everything that is right with sports. After that huge hurricane hit, he raised more money for the area than anyone else and was involved in the entire process of helping to rebuild things and setting all of the processes up, etc...big respect to JJ Watt.

JJ Watt next year a Bill pleaseeeeee

[Big Turk]

49 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Meh... Dolphins aren't taking a QB - If they were, I'd be more bothered by this (even though the argument can be made they should). 

 

Anywhere in the Top 10, they can get a stud offensive player... Devonta Smith, Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Penei Sewell etc.. 

 

If they were smart they would trade down and get a boatload of picks

[Figster]

Houston is showing that game management matters.  Its not all about QB stats. Throwing for 125 yards and a win is better then 300 yards and a loss. Half the yardage in garbage time.

 

...Houston...

 

...we have a problem...

Edited December 28, 2020 by Figster

[Big Turk]

39 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Other conclusions would be:

 

*  This is a one year blip and the Texans will be back at the top next season.

 

*  A franchise QB can elevate the play of a bad team so that they lose by one score and not by three scores.

 

*  QB's like Stafford and Watson this year pad their stats with a lot of garbage time yards/TD's and playing against prevent defenses.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stafford's numbers don't come anywhere close to Watson's.

[Seasons1992]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Seems appropriate to put this here.

 

JJ Watt presser.  He lays it out:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2924323-video-jj-watt-discusses-texans-struggles-in-passionate-postgame-presser

 

Put this man on the Wall of Fame. 

[Charles Romes]

I really don’t understand all the Watt worship on this thread. If he really wanted to help his team he would have restructured years ago so his own salary is more in line with his current FMV to enable his team to sign better players at the end of the roster. Better yet he would offer the team a discount like Brady did for so many years, or like Hasek decline paychecks for the times he could not play because he was injured. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

I still cannot believe that Tunsil trade...I'm really not convinced he's even a top 10 OT in the league and the massive draft capital they handed to Miami has and will continue to speed up their rebuild. He was worth one first round pick at most. 

 

One of the worst trades I can remember and unfortunately it has massively helped our division rival. Ironically, the Dolphins could now draft Penei Sewell (the top LT in the coming draft) with the Texan's top 5 pick who I think has a good chance of becoming a much better player than Tunsil. 

[balln]

40 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Other conclusions would be:

 

*  This is a one year blip and the Texans will be back at the top next season.

 

*  A franchise QB can elevate the play of a bad team so that they lose by one score and not by three scores.

 

*  QB's like Stafford and Watson this year pad their stats with a lot of garbage time yards/TD's and playing against prevent defenses.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

stats are misleading. OP mentioned his accuracy, td, int and yards. They are great and the best of his career. BUT

 

how many sacks has he taken? fumbles? whats his QBR? he also has no game winning drives or 4th Q comebacks this year..... so I would say his numbers put in the context of their record - they are probably playing from behind a lot, bad D, no deandre. 

 

allen this year has 2 game winning drives and 3 4th Q comebacks this year

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

If they were smart they would trade down and get a boatload of picks

Why do you assume there is going to be a huge market for the number 2 pick?  There have been no trades in the top 9 picks during the last two drafts, because teams are realizing that the price is way too steep.  And it certainly does not appear that there is a QB who merits going number 2 this year...

[MJS]

The Saints sucked for a few years even with having Brees throw for 5,000 yards every other year.

 

It's a team sport. But for sure the QB position is twice as important as any other.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Well...I guess the Lions do every year too with Stafford but Watson's Texans routinely make the playoffs...they hosted us last year after winning the division...

 

Watson has MVP caliber numbers this year...

 

Almost 4500 yards passing, completing 70.1% of his passes with 30 TDs to 6 INTs and a 112.6 rating. It is almost impossible for a team to be this bad with a QB performing at this level.

 

And now they currently would be drafting 3rd overall?

 

Just seems like a huge dropoff considering Watson has played very well this year and how much QBs can do to influence the outcome of games.

 

Does this fly in the face of people who say Franchise QBs will guarantee you 7 or 8 wins? Certainly seems to.

 

There was a time in Stafford's career where making the playoffs every year was anticipated (twice in first 4 years, three times in first 6 years).

 

St Louis Rams were one of the big examples of how a franchise QB does not cure all ills.  When they drafted Sam Bradford, they went 7-9 his rookie season with Pat Shurmur as OC, missed winning the NFC West on a tiebreaker, and the future looked bright.  But Pat Shurmur was hired away to be the head coach of the Cleveland Browns and Spagnuolo had the genius idea to replace him with Josh McDaniels, hot off being fired by the Broncs, and the Rams went 2-14 with Bradford looking like an incompetent joke (next year under Schottenheimer, he resumed looking as though he had potential)

 

Coaching matters.  Overall talent matters.  You need a QB, but with very very rare exceptions a QB is not enough.

 

If he were, Rodgers might have more than one Superbowl belt

[djp14150]

A QB alone doesn’t improve a team. That isn’t new.  You need more team talent.

 

another factor in Houston you need to remember.....who they played to start the season.  They played 3 playoff teams in their first 4 games from last year.  The one that wasn’t was Pittsburgh who many thought would be a playoff team last year if Ben wasn’t out for most of the season.

 

Other than 2 games with jacksonville in first 9 games they played 5 playoff teams from last year and 2 teams who would contend this year in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

 

it doesn’t matter how talented a team is...you stat 0-4 and 2-7 the team isn’t going to play hard the rest of the season. 7 of their loses were by one score.

 

 

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

I really don’t understand all the Watt worship on this thread. If he really wanted to help his team he would have restructured years ago so his own salary is more in line with his current FMV to enable his team to sign better players at the end of the roster. Better yet he would offer the team a discount like Brady did for so many years, or like Hasek decline paychecks for the times he could not play because he was injured. 

 

Right...because you would willingly half your salary if they brought in someone to help at your job right? Additionally of the team wanted to have that discussion they could have. They could have cut him. 

 

This is the most ridiculous take I have ever heard.

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There was a time in Stafford's career where making the playoffs every year was anticipated (twice in first 4 years, three times in first 6 years).

 

St Louis Rams were one of the big examples of how a franchise QB does not cure all ills.  When they drafted Sam Bradford, they went 7-9 his rookie season with Pat Shurmur as OC, missed winning the NFC West on a tiebreaker, and the future looked bright.  But Pat Shurmur was hired away to be the head coach of the Cleveland Browns and Spagnuolo had the genius idea to replace him with Josh McDaniels, hot off being fired by the Broncs, and the Rams went 2-14 with Bradford looking like an incompetent joke (next year under Schottenheimer, he resumed looking as though he had potential)

 

Coaching matters.  Overall talent matters.  You need a QB, but with very very rare exceptions a QB is not enough.

 

If he were, Rodgers might have more than one Superbowl belt

 

Sam Bradford was never a franchise QB...dude was captain checkdown.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Big Turk

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Other conclusions would be:

 

*  This is a one year blip and the Texans will be back at the top next season.

 

*  A franchise QB can elevate the play of a bad team so that they lose by one score and not by three scores.

 

*  QB's like Stafford and Watson this year pad their stats with a lot of garbage time yards/TD's and playing against prevent defenses.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The last part is not true. They were not garbage time stats.  
 

7 of their loses they had lead, tied or had the ball down one score in the 4th.

 

houston needs to improve receivers snd their bad defense. They traded their top 5 pick in 2021to Miami.  They aren’t bouncing back next year.  Getting a new gm and coach will see personnel changes and a step back next year.  

 

 

[Jumpsuit Jim]

This thread is the biggest argument against the notion of tanking for a high draft pick in football. While it might work in basketball or hockey where one great player can dictate a game on a regular basis, it just isn’t possible in football. Football is too much of a team sport with so many players affecting each play. A great QB can only do so much...the whole of the team is much more important than its parts. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Sucks that the dolphins have their pick. 

 

Picks, Dolphins got Texan's 1st and 2nd.  BOB also has them $13 million in the hole.

@GunnerBill said it best up thread, "They are a mess".

 

It may take 2 more years for them to dig themselves out of this whole they are in.

For Watson's sake they better get the right management in or his talent will be wasted in Houston.

[Doc]

BOB screweed Houston for years.  And Watson's contract won't help matters any.

[nedboy7]

Wait so they shouldn't try to lose for draft picks?  Now we appreciate the JJ Watts of the league who play to win every week?  Some hypocrisy there no? 

[djp14150]

Houston played Tennessee to OT earlier this year. I expect week 17 to be close.

 

if Tennessee loses they need a loss by Indy, Mia, or Balt to make the playoffs.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Sam Bradford was never a franchise QB...dude was captain checkdown.

 

INteresting.

 

How many of his 2010 and 2012 games you watch, against which opponents?  Nah, don't tell me, I probably know the answer.

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, nedboy7 said:

Wait so they shouldn't try to lose for draft picks?  Now we appreciate the JJ Watts of the league who play to win every week?  Some hypocrisy there no? 

 

You can't blame JJ for what he is saying.  If a franchise wants to do a complete rebuild (I don't like the tank word) you trade away those players!

[djp14150]

3 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Wait so they shouldn't try to lose for draft picks?  Now we appreciate the JJ Watts of the league who play to win every week?  Some hypocrisy there no? 

last year they traded 21 First to Miami for OT Tunsil

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

BOB screweed Houston for years.  And Watson's contract won't help matters any.

 

Watson's contract is fine. It is plenty workable when you don't have other high priced vets you need to sign long term.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

INteresting.

 

How many of his 2010 and 2012 games you watch, against which opponents?  Nah, don't tell me, I probably know the answer.

 

Enough...and I don't seem to be the only one with that opinion:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/philadelphia-eagles/eagles-win-check-down-machine-sam-bradford-still-struggling

 

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1977465

 

https://twitter.com/FG_Dolan/status/1041456359877894145?s=20

[Mr. WEO]

54 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So after 10 years Eli was ready to take that jump huh?

 

 Eli was a good QB who could have great games here and there but he wasn't consistently great.

 

No.  He had 6 seasons over 4000 yards and 6 with more than 25 TDs

 

Anyway, I was responding to your OP.  Teams have been bad even with QB play as good as or better than Watsons current season.  The Giants and Falcons are examples.

[Mr. K]

When you trade Nuk and trade away gobs of assets for not much you've got to wonder what Watson would be with a franchise that was run well. Same thing with Stafford. He has never had help from the defense or running game. Plus their coaching is annually horrible.

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

When you trade Nuk and trade away gobs of assets for not much you've got to wonder what Watson would be with a franchise that was run well. Same thing with Stafford. He has never had help from the defense or running game. Plus their coaching is annually horrible.

 

When Stafford had a top 3 D, the Lions lost the WC game.  When he had top 10 D, they went 6-10.

 

Without Nuk, Watson is having the best season of his career. 

[popcornpam]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

I can't see why Deshaun re-upped there.

 

I guess it's hard to leave a city once you've spent time there and become a pillar of the community.

I’m from Rochester. I live in Houston and he signed his contract before Bob traded away Hopkins!

[BringBackFlutie]

He isn't proof of that.  It's common sense.  He's just more validation.

[popcornpam]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

Watson’s pocket sensing skills are not elite and that’s why they had to go into cap hell to sign a franchise left tackle. It also doesn’t help that they have been overpaying for what Watt once was years ago.  

I live in Houston I’m from Rochester I’ve noticed that also.  I think he has a hard time reading defenses. He always bounces out of the pocket. He has a good arm. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, popcornpam said:

I’m from Rochester. I live in Houston and he signed his contract before Bob traded away Hopkins!

 

Hmm. Not sure where you heard that but I sincerely doubt it. You cannot negotiate with a player until the beginning of their 4th league year. They traded Hopkins away within days of the new league year opening. I can buy that he agreed the deal before it was announced in August time. But not as early as to be before they traded Nuke.

[TroutDog]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

I really don’t understand all the Watt worship on this thread. If he really wanted to help his team he would have restructured years ago so his own salary is more in line with his current FMV to enable his team to sign better players at the end of the roster. Better yet he would offer the team a discount like Brady did for so many years, or like Hasek decline paychecks for the times he could not play because he was injured. 

Watt will be ‘paying’ for playing this game for the rest of his life. All the surgeries and constant battering take their toll. He deserves to be paid, in my opinion. 

[RyanC883]

Watson and Watt should request trades.  I think Watt would love the winning and culture here 

30 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

When Stafford had a top 3 D, the Lions lost the WC game.  When he had top 10 D, they went 6-10.

 

Without Nuk, Watson is having the best season of his career. 

 

true, but this is the year of no holding and Fuller not getting injured until later.   watson likely would be even better this year with Nuk.  

[Doc]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Watson's contract is fine. It is plenty workable when you don't have other high priced vets you need to sign long term.

 

Yeah, it’s fine for now because they have almost  nobody worth paying.  And Watt will be done soon and off the books. Meanwhile the mortgage the near future by giving away draft picks.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yeah, it’s fine for now because they have almost  nobody worth paying.  And Watt will be done soon and off the books. Meanwhile the mortgage the near future by giving away draft picks.

 

And covid allowing by the time they need to pay anyone Watson's contract will be looked at as part of a higher cap. 

[Like A Mofo]

You have to look at the big picture with the upper echelon QB's.

 

There are going to be some years where things just don't go that well but overall with a franchise QB,you will have or hope to have a few legit SB chances during that player's career.

 

 

[Like A Mofo]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Seems appropriate to put this here.

 

JJ Watt presser.  He lays it out:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2924323-video-jj-watt-discusses-texans-struggles-in-passionate-postgame-presser

 

 

If JJ ever wants to do it this guy has future NFL HC written all over him.

[popcornpam]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hmm. Not sure where you heard that but I sincerely doubt it. You cannot negotiate with a player until the beginning of their 4th league year. They traded Hopkins away within days of the new league year opening. I can buy that he agreed the deal before it was announced in August time. But not as early as to be before they traded Nuke.

All I know was Hopkins was really surprised that it happened I don’t know the date exactly I could look back

[DaggersEOD]

3 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Yes. It is a team game and you cannot win consistently with a great QB while most of other 21 starters are bad or lazy. Also, if your coach is not good that is a huge disadvantage. However... it is much easier for them to turn it around and improve with the QB spot settled.

 

I guess that's why this situation is so curious.  In order for a QB to have good numbers, his WRs have to catch balls. So usually they would also be "good".

 

Thinking about it a second, it seems more like a Defensive problem than anything else. If the QB is doing so well, points are being scored.

 

That could explain why JJ was so upset.  It's his side of the ball that's wasting Watson's talent IMO.

[Punching Bag]

4 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Rumor I heard from someone in Buffalo is that the Texans are very interested in Daboll (HC) and Joe Schoen (GM).  I hope this is false.  

 

Anyone on Bills staff should talk to Brian Gaine before taking any position in Texans organization.

1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

 

 

If JJ ever wants to do it this guy has future NFL HC written all over him.

 

JJ would be better in front office - doing player evaluations, Director of Pro Personnel or Director of Player Personnel.

He cannot teach his skills but he could find players with his passion.