2020 MVP Race - Has Mahomes been incredibly lucky?

[Scott7975]

25 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I'm getting a kick laughing at some of these posts lol.. Unless Rodgers throws 3-4 INT and a 200 yard game next week, Josh has little chance.

 

Right now the race is easy

 

#1 Rodgers

#3 Tie. Mahomes and Allen.

 

Why?  I think most people feel Rodgers will get it and he probably will.  That doesn't mean people can't talk about Allen getting it.  IMO the fact that he is in the conversation with Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes should make you feel good, not crack up laughing at other people excited about our QB.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

56 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

The nerve of him.  No respect for his juniors..

 

LOL. It was a heck of TD run for a linebacker summoning his former HS days. That play and the others it took a miracle for Allen to not have six TD's last week. 

[BullBuchanan]

Allen at +1800, so it looks about over. That said, I'd gladly drop $50 on this if my book had MVP bets.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-odds-after-big-week-16-aaron-rodgers-is-now-the-betting-favorite-to-win-mvp-144528719.html

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He doesn't need to match or surpass Rodgers in total TD's.  Multiple factors are always considered. Some swing in Rodgers favor, some in Allen's favor. That said, he does need to be close. So yeah he likely needs about 8 to finish the season to stay realistically in the conversation and with in a few TD's of Rodgers. And consider if he puts up 8 over the next two games that means he has at least 5 conference player of the week awards, if not 6. 

 

Allen needs a huge game tonight. At least 4 TD's but 5 or 6 would be ideal. 

 

Couple of things are just really hurting Allen. 

 

1. The Hail Murray. If the Bills could finish 14-2 and better than the Packers that would have been huge. Also, the narrative that Monday morning would have been about Josh Allen as a legitimate MVP candidate. Instead the talk was all about Murray.

 

2. The Broncos game could have easily been a six TD game for Allen but he didn't get the breaks. Multple TD's called back on penalty on one series. Zach Moss given a bad spot and turn over on downs in another series. Jerry Huges scores a TD instead of getting tackled around the goal line. 

 

Zero TD drives against the Jets hurt.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Why?  There is certainly no significant statistical difference between their seasons.  So what is it that makes you so convinced that Rodgers deserves to win the MVP over Josh Allen?  Have you just been listening to Chris Collinsworth too much? 

 

Rodgers has fewer TOs by a decent amount. He is very slightly ahead in completion % as well as YPA and total TDs (even adding rushing and receiving TDs). The term "significant" is in the eye of the beholder, but at this point Rodgers' stats are slightly better. I didn't say it was not a close call.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The cards just aren't falling in Allen's favor this year. It's like Rodgers is destined to win it.

 

Hail Murray.

Two called back TD's against the Jets 

4 TD's last week when he easily could have had 5 or 6 

Two in this first half when he is a TD drop away from having 3 in the half.

[DuckyBoys]

well one can argue the Packers have played a chump schedule. 

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, BuffalOhio said:

I don't want Josh to win MVP.  I'm glad he's in the race, but if he wins MVP before his next contract, what will said contract look like?

 

I'd rather he win it AFTER his next contract.

 

 

 

 

Now, this makes some sense, but honestly, I don't think winning MVP is going to cost all that much more than being in the top five of the MVP discussion two or three years in a row. But I hear you.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

well one can argue the Packers have played a chump schedule. 

 

Bills definitely have more quality wins. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

15 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Rodgers should get it at this point. That does not take away from the great season Allen has had; it's just that I believe Rodgers deserves this specific award. I'd like to see Josh continue to drive up our Win/Loss record. And, let's see him maintain this kind of performance level; if he does, he will win the MVP in the future when it is warranted.

I would argue that josh allen alone deserves this specific award but mvp has now become synonymous with 'stat sheet stuffing' allen just straight up carried this team week in and week out with no running game or defense for at least half the season making nearly impossible plays look routine.  Josh won't win it...but it honestly says more about the award in general than it says about him 

[wjag]

Could Josh be a dark horse candidate for the MVP race this weekend?  I know the consensus is it's Aarons...  But what if...

 

Consider this argument:

 

MyMahomey is staying home for week 17.

Rodgers just lost his all-world LT and needs to face a hungry Bears team wanting a playoff berth.  What if Rodgers stubs his toe against the Bears and..

 

Josh balls out against the Dolphins to secure the number 2 seed.  What if Josh puts up something like 250 and 3 TDS in a win?

 

Would that, could that, should that do it?

[Forward Progress]

I am willing to concede the League MVP award to Rodgers, while accepting the Superbowl MVP to Josh Allen as a consolation prize.

[Big Turk]

On 12/28/2020 at 2:28 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

I'm getting a kick laughing at some of these posts lol.. Unless Rodgers throws 3-4 INT and a 200 yard game next week, Josh has little chance.

 

Right now the race is easy

 

#1 Rodgers

#3 Tie. Mahomes and Allen.

 

Rodgers has done it against basically competition like your little brother and his friends out in the backyard playing a cupcake 31st toughest schedule. Allen has played the 4th toughest. 8 top 12 pass Defenses including 1, 2 and 4 for Allen and Rodgers only faced 1(#5 Saints).

 

Why isn't this taken into consideration.

[scribo]

Patty and his lucky charms.

[CincyBillsFan]

On 12/28/2020 at 5:40 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Zero TD drives against the Jets hurt.

 

Why would that hurt any more then KC only scoring 17 points on the Falcons?

 

 

2 hours ago, wjag said:

Could Josh be a dark horse candidate for the MVP race this weekend?  I know the consensus is it's Aarons...  But what if...

 

Consider this argument:

 

MyMahomey is staying home for week 17.

Rodgers just lost his all-world LT and needs to face a hungry Bears team wanting a playoff berth.  What if Rodgers stubs his toe against the Bears and..

 

Josh balls out against the Dolphins to secure the number 2 seed.  What if Josh puts up something like 250 and 3 TDS in a win?

 

Would that, could that, should that do it?

 

I'm assuming he would do this in the first half as there is no way he's seeing the field in the 2nd half.

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

50 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Rodgers has done it against basically competition like your little brother and his friends out in the backyard playing a cupcake 31st toughest schedule. Allen has played the 4th toughest. 8 top 12 pass Defenses including 1, 2 and 4 for Allen and Rodgers only faced 1(#5 Saints).

 

Why isn't this taken into consideration.

He's in the consideration. that's why everyone including me has him top 3.. maybe even in better shape after that last game. I have never said he's not in consideration.... but to conclude that he should be the definite winner is silliness 

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

Rodgers winning is the only acceptable alternative to Allen winning.  I think that's a fair statement.  No one can convince me Mahomes deserves it over those two.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Why would that hurt any more then KC only scoring 17 points on the Falcons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

1)  Mahomes threw 2 TDs in that game--including the game winner at the end of the game.

 

2) This was the second time in the season that the Bills faced the awful Jets.

 

3) No other team was kept out of the EZ by the Jets D (Fitzy threw 3 TDs the week before vs Jets)

 

4) Mahomes, the very next week, put up this stat line vs those same Jets:  31/42 for 414 yards, 5 TDs.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

He's in the consideration. that's why everyone including me has him top 3.. maybe even in better shape after that last game. I have never said he's not in consideration.... but to conclude that he should be the definite winner is silliness 

 

Not saying he should definitely win...most people add him as an also ran...I think he should be more like a coin flip.

 

Rodgers has played great but against easy opponents. Allen has played the gauntlet of top 12 pass defenses and his numbers are astounding.

 

Against the 3 teams that have allowed the fewest passing TDs in the NFL...Rams(16), Dolphins(17), Patriots(21), Allen has posted a 4 passing TD game against all 4...25% of the Rams passing TDs allowed this year were by Allen, 23% of the Fins...that is kinda crazy to think of.

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

1)  Mahomes threw 2 TDs in that game--including the game winner at the end of the game.

 

2) This was the second time in the season that the Bills faced the awful Jets.

 

3) No other team was kept out of the EZ by the Jets D (Fitzy threw 3 TDs the week before vs Jets)

 

4) Mahomes, the very next week, put up this stat line vs those same Jets:  31/42 for 414 yards, 5 TDs.

 

The Bills never punted in that Jet game and rolled up well over 400 yards of offense. Bills are #1 team on 3rd down conversions, have the fewest punts in the NFL and are #2 in the NFL in points scored per drive with 2.96 to GB's 3.15. Bills are 20th in Turnovers per drive while GB is #1...imagine if the Bills didn't have that many turnovers how many points they would have scored. They would be #1 by a huge margin.

 

All against the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL. Mahomes played the 20th toughest schedule, Rodgers the 31st toughest.

 

Mahomes QB rating in December? 89. Allen's? 116. Allen is peaking while Mahomes is falling off. Mahomes also has 18 dropped INTs this year, by far the most in the NFL. That is just pure luck. If he even had an average number he wouldn't even be in the MVP discussion.

 

Level of competition should matter.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Big Turk

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, wjag said:

Could Josh be a dark horse candidate for the MVP race this weekend?  I know the consensus is it's Aarons...  But what if...

 

Consider this argument:

 

MyMahomey is staying home for week 17.

Rodgers just lost his all-world LT and needs to face a hungry Bears team wanting a playoff berth.  What if Rodgers stubs his toe against the Bears and..

 

Josh balls out against the Dolphins to secure the number 2 seed.  What if Josh puts up something like 250 and 3 TDS in a win?

 

Would that, could that, should that do it?

 

Allen's problem is that he isn't even being talked about as a close #2 in the race right now. I know Cowherd has brought him up as just slightly behind Rodgers and well ahead of Mahomes but other than him it feels like very few have it ranked Rodgers, Allen, Mahomes right now. Rodgers deserves to win it, as does Allen. It really should be a co-MVP this year but I don't see it happening just from what we are hearing heading into week 17. I'm also skeptical that Allen will play much against the Dolphins. 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Rodgers has done it against basically competition like your little brother and his friends out in the backyard playing a cupcake 31st toughest schedule. Allen has played the 4th toughest. 8 top 12 pass Defenses including 1, 2 and 4 for Allen and Rodgers only faced 1(#5 Saints).

 

Why isn't this taken into consideration.

 

Jets and NE twice.

 

SF is 17th in points allowed.

 

Denver is a bad D.  Tennessee--not good.  And Seahawks.  And Chargers.

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not saying he should definitely win...most people add him as an also ran...I think he should be more like a coin flip.

 

Rodgers has played great but against easy opponents. Allen has played the gauntlet of top 12 pass defenses and his numbers are astounding.

 

Against the 3 teams that have allowed the fewest passing TDs in the NFL...Rams(16), Dolphins(17), Patriots(21), Allen has posted a 4 passing TD game against all 4...25% of the Rams passing TDs allowed this year were by Allen, 23% of the Fins...that is kinda crazy to think of.

 

The Bills never punted in that Jet game and rolled up well over 400 yards of offense. Bills are #1 team on 3rd down conversions, have the fewest punts in the NFL and are #2 in the NFL in points scored per drive with 2.96 to GB's 3.15. Bills are 20th in Turnovers per drive while GB is #1...imagine if the Bills didn't have that many turnovers how many points they would have scored. They would be #1 by a huge margin.

 

All against the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL. Mahomes played the 20th toughest schedule, Rodgers the 31st toughest.

 

Mahomes QB rating in December? 89. Allen's? 116. Allen is peaking while Mahomes is falling off. Mahomes also has 18 dropped INTs this year, by far the most in the NFL. That is just pure luck. If he even had an average number he wouldn't even be in the MVP discussion.

 

Level of competition should matter.

 

 

I was answering the poster's question.

 

No one cares that you didn't punt against the Jets---they would only remember zero TDs against a team they know very well and allowed 8 passing TDs before and after the Bills got shut out of the EZ

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Jets and NE twice.

 

SF is 17th in points allowed.

 

Denver is a bad D.  Tennessee--not good.  And Seahawks.  And Chargers.

 

 

 

 

 

NE is the 7th ranked pass D and has given up the 3rd fewest TD passes in the NFL with 21. Allen just put up 4 on them in one game...just like he did against the 2 teams above them...Rams(16) and Dolphins(17). 25% of the Rams TD passes allowed this year came against the Bills, 23% of the Dolphins.

 

Look at pass D rankings...Allen has faced 8 teams in the top 12 including #1, 2 and 4.

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Jets and NE twice.

 

SF is 17th in points allowed.

 

Denver is a bad D.  Tennessee--not good.  And Seahawks.  And Chargers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was answering the poster's question.

 

No one cares that you didn't punt against the Jets---they would only remember zero TDs against a team they know very well and allowed 8 passing TDs before and after the Bills got shut out of the EZ

 

And? Mahomes threw 3 INTs against the Dolphins. Allen threw 0 with 4 TDs. Every game stands on its own. You could play this this week they did that and last week they did this game all day long. At the end of the day you'll find that what happened last week doesn't matter much.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Big Turk

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

No one cares that you didn't punt against the Jets---they would only remember zero TDs against a team they know very well and allowed 8 passing TDs before and after the Bills got shut out of the EZ

 

Sadly you are right. It's a disgrace that some "football writers" have a vote for MVP but are too lazy to dive into the details of each players game. I mean it's only three players you have to go in depth on.

[wjag]

We’ve got Colin on the Bills wagon.
 

https://youtu.be/Fge5GCgtKeE

Edited January 1, 2021 by wjag

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Sadly you are right. It's a disgrace that some "football writers" have a vote for MVP but are too lazy to dive into the details of each players game. I mean it's only three players you have to go in depth on.

 

 

Nah.

 

Interesting to note that many posters here, after the draft commented on how Rodgers lacked any weapons for Offense going into the season, now it's "Rodgers had it too easy this year".

 

MVPs are never going to be penalized by the quality of the teams they beat.  They aren't rewarded for it either.

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Mr. WEO

[wjag]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Nah.

 

Interesting to note that many posters here, after the draft commented on how Rodgers lacked any weapons for Offense going into the season, now it's "Rodgers had it too easy this year".

 

MVPs are never going to be penalized by the quality of the teams they beat.  They aren't rewarded for it either.

 

 

 

The thing is, in my mind, it’s about buzz. The Bills completing a sweep of prime time games could be changing the narrative.  The JA accolades have been pouring in for weeks.  He’s THE most talked about athlete now for a month straight and all he has done is ball out on one national telecast after another.  I just rewatched the Pitt game.  Collingsworth was gushing all game long about him.  If your conscience mind wants Rodgers, the exposure JA has had in the last month tops everyone in the MVP race effecting your subconscious mind. I heard today he is tops in fantasy football too (can’t confirm, swore off FF years ago).  It’s getting noticed.  
 

It might be too little, too late to stop Aaron, but if Mack has a game and Aaron stumbles a bit AND Josh plays AND beats a tough Miami defense, there might be momentum there.   

Edited January 1, 2021 by wjag

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, wjag said:

The thing is, in my mind, it’s about buzz. The Bills completing a sweep of prime time games could be changing the narrative.  The JA accolades have been pouring in for weeks.  He’s THE most talked about athlete now for a month straight and all he has done is ball out on one national telecast after another.  I just rewatched the Pitt game.  Collingsworth was gushing all game long about him.  If your conscience mind wants Rodgers, the exposure JA has had in the last month tops everyone in the MVP race effectung your subconscious mind. I heard today he is tops in fantasy football too (can’t confirm, swore off FF years ago).  It’s getting noticed.  
 

It might be too little, too late to stop Aaron, but if Mack has a game and Aaron stumbles a bit AND Josh plays AND beats a tough Miami defense, there might be momentum there.   

 

Anything can happen.  Rodgers was the front runner for a while.  He has been the favorite.  He would have to be blanked this weekend to lose it, and Josh would need a repeat of last week's numbers.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Nah.

 

Interesting to note that many posters here, after the draft commented on how Rodgers lacked any weapons for Offense going into the season, now it's "Rodgers had it too easy this year".

 

MVPs are never going to be penalized by the quality of the teams they beat.  They aren't rewarded for it either.

 

 

He's had a fantastic season can't take that away from him. I think my biggest beef is just the perception among so many in the media and i will assume the voters for now until we see the actual vote, is that it's not even that close and that Allen is third behind Mahomes. 

 

While you are 100% right about Rodgers perceived and actual lack of passing weapons for stretches of this season I think we also need to take time to re-evaluate how this season actually played out for the Packers. They ran the ball at a higher rate than league average and at a top 10 efficiency. Mahomes and Allen have done far more heavy lifting for their respective teams. And those are just the raw numbers not even taking into account strength of opponent. 

 

If MVP is just a QB stat award Rodgers wins every day. But if it's an award that takes into account a number of different variables I don't see how this shouldn't be one of the closets votes in league history.

 

 

[GoBills808]

Mahomes is equal 15th in the league for completion percentage fwiw

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, wjag said:

It might be too little, too late to stop Aaron, but if Mack has a game and Aaron stumbles a bit AND Josh plays AND beats a tough Miami defense, there might be momentum there.   

 

Allen needs a Hail Mary to win it at the end here.

 

1. Packers lose and end up losing home field advantage. 

2. Rodgers doesn't have a great performance in a losing effort. He'll need to have like no better than a 100 QB rating.

3. For some reason Allen plays at least three quarters against the Dolphins and puts up his third consecutive 4 TD 0 turnover performance.

 

If all three of those things happen we are talking about a legitimate chance for Allen to squeak out the MVP. 

[balln]

its a stat award unfortunately 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Mahomes is equal 15th in the league for completion percentage fwiw

 

I think his "struggles", and I mean them in a relative sense, recently have been failing to take the easy play that is there and trying to force the big low % play. I mean he isn't at Carson Wentz levels in that regard or anything but has definitely been evident. It is almost like he thinks he can make every play out of the ordinary. And sometimes you just have to stay in the offense and take the easy throw. It is something he has done in previous seasons that is missing at the moment IMO. That completion % correlates with the eye test. 

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think his "struggles", and I mean them in a relative sense, recently have been failing to take the easy play that is there and trying to force the big low % play. I mean he isn't at Carson Wentz levels in that regard or anything but has definitely been evident. It is almost like he thinks he can make every play out of the ordinary. And sometimes you just have to stay in the offense and take the easy throw. It is something he has done in previous seasons that is missing at the moment IMO. That completion % correlates with the eye test. 

 

Yes, I agree with this.  I feel like he will adjust this come playoff time.  We will have to outscore them.

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Anything can happen.  Rodgers was the front runner for a while.  He has been the favorite.  

Not saying you’re wrong, but how do you know this?  

52 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Allen needs a Hail Mary to win it at the end here.

 

1. Packers lose and end up losing home field advantage. 

2. Rodgers doesn't have a great performance in a losing effort. He'll need to have like no better than a 100 QB rating.

3. For some reason Allen plays at least three quarters against the Dolphins and puts up his third consecutive 4 TD 0 turnover performance.

 

If all three of those things happen we are talking about a legitimate chance for Allen to squeak out the MVP. 

Pure speculation.  No one knows who’s in the lead in the MVP race.  For all we know, Allen’s in the lead and Rodgers is the one who needs to have a big game to catch up...

Edited January 1, 2021 by mannc

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Nah.

 

Interesting to note that many posters here, after the draft commented on how Rodgers lacked any weapons for Offense going into the season, now it's "Rodgers had it too easy this year".

 

MVPs are never going to be penalized by the quality of the teams they beat.  They aren't rewarded for it either.

 

What do they have to do with one another?  Yeah, nothing outside of maybe having an easy regular season schedule made the fact that the 1st round pick won't help them on the field this year less of an issue.  In the regular season, that is.  The playoffs will be a different animal and they were already thumped by the Bucs, who were just 1 of 3 playoff teams they faced, against whom they went 1-2.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Not saying you’re wrong, but how do you know this?  

Pure speculation.  No one knows who’s in the lead in the MVP race.  For all we know, Allen’s in the lead and Rodgers is the one who needs to have a big game to catch up...

 

 

 I hear things.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

What do they have to do with one another?  Yeah, nothing outside of maybe having an easy regular season schedule made the fact that the 1st round pick won't help them on the field this year less of an issue.  In the regular season, that is.  The playoffs will be a different animal and they were already thumped by the Bucs, who were just 1 of 3 playoff teams they faced, against whom they went 1-2.

 

So, the failure to draft that other guy in the 1st THIS year will have its true impact revealed....in the playoffs...!!

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

So, the failure to draft that other guy in the 1st THIS year will have its true impact revealed....in the playoffs...!!

 

It just might.  Stay tuned.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

NE is the 7th ranked pass D and has given up the 3rd fewest TD passes in the NFL with 21. Allen just put up 4 on them in one game...just like he did against the 2 teams above them...Rams(16) and Dolphins(17). 25% of the Rams TD passes allowed this year came against the Bills, 23% of the Dolphins.

 

Look at pass D rankings...Allen has faced 8 teams in the top 12 including #1, 2 and 4.

 

And? Mahomes threw 3 INTs against the Dolphins. Allen threw 0 with 4 TDs. Every game stands on its own. You could play this this week they did that and last week they did this game all day long. At the end of the day you'll find that what happened last week doesn't matter much.

 

Again, I was responding to the poster's comment.  Scroll up to catch up.

[Bookie Man]

I wonder who has the most dropped TD's. Allen's gotta be up there as well...