2020 MVP Race - Has Mahomes been incredibly lucky?

[IgotBILLStopay]

Watching his game against the Falcons, I could not believe his luck with two sure interceptions floored. So I google “Mahomes dropped interceptions” and whoa - here is what I find (16 dropped INTs on the season!!!)

 

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2134267854748/patrick-mahomes-sets-ignominious-nfl-record

 

Quote

If half of the dropped INTs from Mahomes had been completed, he likely wouldn't be in the MVP conversation. But thanks to some fortuitous drops, he's still in the driver's seat to pick up plenty more hardware this year.

 

And Allen has had just the opposite - with INTs being called on catches made by TEs.

 

PS: This is not to piss on Mahomes, who is an otherworldly talent - but the article does show that Mahomes’ stats are a wee bit inflated. Several dropped INT drives have ended in TDs thrown by Mahomes (like today). 

 

Hope MVP voters see this and take it into account.

[MAJBobby]

Allen plays well these next two weeks (now that they will have to play week 17). I personally thinks he locks up the MVP. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Let’s not be blinded by our own bias here: Allen has had plenty of potential pics dropped, too. 
 

16 is a lot, for sure. 

[JoPoy88]

That’s a good find thanks for posting but it would be a bit more helpful if the author would have posted some comparison numbers. I get that the 16 is a new record but I’d like to see how big an outlier that number actually is.

[MasterStrategist]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Allen plays well these next two weeks (now that they will have to play week 17). I personally thinks he locks up the MVP. 

Agree. I would think 8 total tds would almost surefire Josh as the MVP...min of 4.  Allen with 38, prior to MNF, Mahomes with 40 after today.

 

mahomes has about 800 yards on Josh, which is why I think he needs to surpass Mahomes by at least 2-3 tds.  Also Mahomes with fewer turnovers, albeit some fortunate as mentioned.  

 

Given Mahomes notoriety and Chiefs record, it will be tough but doable.  

Edited December 27, 2020 by MasterStrategist

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Watching his game against the Falcons, I could not believe his luck with two sure interceptions floored. So I google “Mahomes dropped interceptions” and whoa - here is what I find (16 dropped INTs on the season!!!)

 

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2134267854748/patrick-mahomes-sets-ignominious-nfl-record

 

 

And Allen has had just the opposite - with INTs being called on catches made by TEs.

 

PS: This is not to piss on Mahomes, who is an otherworldly talent - but the article does show that Mahomes’ stats are a wee bit inflated. Several dropped INT drives have ended in TDs thrown by Mahomes (like today). 

 

Hope MVP voters see this and take it into account.

 

As I think others have pointed out...need to know how many INTs other QBs have had dropped.  I can think of a few on Rodgers, Wilson, and yep Allen

[IgotBILLStopay]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Allen plays well these next two weeks (now that they will have to play week 17). I personally thinks he locks up the MVP. 

I have not yet looked up 2020 stats - but INTS and Dropprd INTs track reasonably well. Here are the 2019 stats - only one high volume QB - Carson Wentz - had more dropped INTs than INTs - Allen was 9 INTS to 3 Dropped INTs last year - so Mahomes’ 6 INTs and 16 Dropped INTs is incredibly lucky!!!

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/adjusted-interceptions-2019

5 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

That’s a good find thanks for posting but it would be a bit more helpful if the author would have posted some comparison numbers. I get that the 16 is a new record but I’d like to see how big an outlier that number actually is.

 

fair point about the need for a bench mark - see 2019 stats in the link here

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/adjusted-interceptions-2019

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree. I would think 8 total tds would almost surefire Josh as the MVP...min of 4.  Allen with 38, prior to MNF, Mahomes with 40 after today.

 

mahomes has about 800 yards on Josh, which is why I think he needs to surpass Mahomes by at least 2-3 tds.  Also Mahomes with fewer turnovers, albeit some fortunate as mentioned.  

 

Given Mahomes notoriety and Chiefs record, it will be tough but doable.  

Imo it is in the Name. MVP. Chiefs are LOADED. They are expected to do this. Bills were not thought about as a team they are. Neither was Allen. Add in the POTW and there is more accolades for the “lesser” Allen. 
 

both Allen and McD should win their End of Year Honors. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

As I think others have pointed out...need to know how many INTs other QBs have had dropped.  I can think of a few on Rodgers, Wilson, and yep Allen

see above

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Imo it is in the Name. MVP. Chiefs are LOADED. They are expected to do this. Bills were not thought about as a team they are. Neither was Allen. Add in the POTW and there is more accolades for the “lesser” Allen. 
 

both Allen and McD should win their End of Year Honors. 

Hope so, agree both are well deserving.  I think Josh needs to finish really strong, then we shall see

[MAJBobby]

Just now, MasterStrategist said:

Hope so, agree both are well deserving.  I think Josh needs to finish really strong, then we shall see

Another Dominant Prime Time performance tomorrow will go a long way to helping his cause. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Watching his game against the Falcons, I could not believe his luck with two sure interceptions floored. So I google “Mahomes dropped interceptions” and whoa - here is what I find (16 dropped INTs on the season!!!)

 

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2134267854748/patrick-mahomes-sets-ignominious-nfl-record

 

 

And Allen has had just the opposite - with INTs being called on catches made by TEs.

 

PS: This is not to piss on Mahomes, who is an otherworldly talent - but the article does show that Mahomes’ stats are a wee bit inflated. Several dropped INT drives have ended in TDs thrown by Mahomes (like today). 

 

Hope MVP voters see this and take it into account.

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

[NewEra]

Rodgers deserves the MVP and I feel confidant that he’ll get it as long as he doesn’t stink it up the next two days.  He’s playing with Adams, Jones and bums.  He made it so Robert Tonyan was a pro bowl “snub”.  I feel that if mahomes or Allen played with Rodgers’ playmakers, they wouldn’t be as good as AR has been this year.  
 

The Bills used their first rd pick on Diggs.  The packers used their pick on ARs replacement.  The packers were deemed “lucky” last season and not seen as a true contender.  As they sit with the #1 seed.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, FireChans said:

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

 

Good point

 

Wait whut just happened here?  LOL

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point

 

Wait whut just happened here?  LOL

[PonyBoy]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

THANK YOU!!!! 👏 Superbowl MVP is all I care about! C'mon TBD fans. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

I am excited when Bills players win hardware. You aren’t?

 

you appear to think they are mutually exclusive

 

Off hand I can think of 3 - Kurt Warner, Steve Young and Emmitt Smith

 

Edit: It is quite common - has happened 10 times before - though not during the Patriots dominance era - which likely made you think they were mutually exclusive

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

 

Quote

Only ten players have won the Super Bowl and MVP in the same season, Bart Starr in 1966, Terry Bradshaw in 1978, Mark Moseley in 1982, Lawrence Taylor in 1986, Joe Montana in 1989, Emmitt Smith in 1993, Steve Young in 1994, Brett Favre in 1996 Terrell Davis in 1998 and Kurt Warner in 1999.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay

[Warcodered]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

The two things aren't mutually exclusive I'm not going to not root for one just because the two haven't lined up recently.

[IgotBILLStopay]

36 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Let’s not be blinded by our own bias here: Allen has had plenty of potential pics dropped, too. 
 

16 is a lot, for sure. 

see 2019 stats above. 6 INTs and 16 Dropped INTs is quite quite rare. FWIW, in 2019 ALLEN had 3 dropped INTs against 9 INTs.

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Edit: It is quite common - has happened 10 times before

10 times since 1966 is "quite common?"

[IgotBILLStopay]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

10 times since 1966 is "quite common?"

Depends on your benchmark. Your post appeared to imply they were mutually exclusive. 10 times makes it quite common relative to that.

 

Folks are different. Maybe you have something against Allen or, more likely, totally eschew individual honors - this is a message board and folks can choose to root for what they want. Your post has merit if winning MVP somehow means you don’t win the super bowl  - then sure I don’t want the MVP - but as I show it has happened jointly quite a few times before. 

 

 

[NewEra]

38 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

 

Why do you not want Allen to win MVP?  
 

Like most fans of teams and players, I’d prefer it if my favorites teams and players won accolades as opposed to not winning accolades.  
 

Is there some curse that I didn’t know about where the winner of the MVP can’t also win the super bowl?  
 

if you don’t want Allen to win the MVP, you’re absolutely among the minority of Bills fans.  
 

I don’t think he deserves it, but I’ll be fired up if he wins it.  I ain’t afraid of your imaginary, made up curse.  

3 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Depends on your benchmark. Your post appeared to imply they were mutually exclusive. 10 times makes it quite common relative to that.

 

Folks are different. Maybe you have something against Allen or, more likely, totally eschew individual honors - this is a message board and folks can choose to root for what they want. Your post has merit if winning MVP somehow means you don’t win the super bowl  - then sure I don’t want the MVP - but as I show it has happened jointly quite a few times before. 

 

 

No....:he just likes to talk smack to everyone for no apparent reason.  

[Hebert19]

Josh puts up a good showing tomorrow he should be ahead of mahomes. 

[njbuff]

Wouldn’t you folks rather see Allen win the SB and SB MVP rather than the regular season MVP?

 

Who gives a flying bleep about the regular season MVP.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I think Allen can easily leap frog Mahomes with a win tomorrow night and a modest 3 TD performance. Rodgers is the one that will be tougher to beat out. IMO, Rodgers is the current favorite. So much can change though. Henry goes off for 150 rushing yards and a win tonight and I think he jumps into the lead ahead of all the QB's. Seems as good a year as any to announce Co-MVP's winners too.

 

Rodgers really needs to beat the Titans though. If they lose they are basically 0-3 against teams with a  winning record at the time they played said team. And they only have one win on the whole season against a team with a current winning record, Saints all the way back in week 2 or 3. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Josh puts up a good showing tomorrow he should be ahead of mahomes. 

And behind Rodgers 

[IgotBILLStopay]

47 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Rodgers deserves the MVP and I feel confidant that he’ll get it as long as he doesn’t stink it up the next two days.  He’s playing with Adams, Jones and bums.  He made it so Robert Tonyan was a pro bowl “snub”.  I feel that if mahomes or Allen played with Rodgers’ playmakers, they wouldn’t be as good as AR has been this year.  
 

The Bills used their first rd pick on Diggs.  The packers used their pick on ARs replacement.  The packers were deemed “lucky” last season and not seen as a true contender.  As they sit with the #1 seed.  

 

As of now, I agree Rodgers shd be the favorite. But Allen and he have two games left - let us see. The original post was more about the presumed front runner Mahomes’ luck and not really about Allen deserving it more than Rodgers. That said Allen has not really had a bad game - and Rodgers did lay one egg (vs. TB). So I think two superlative performances from Allen vs. two middling ones from Rodgers can put Allen over the top.

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Wouldn’t you folks rather see Allen win the SB and SB MVP rather than the regular season MVP?

 

Who gives a flying bleep about the regular season MVP.

How about......ummmmm......both??

 

why is this so hard to understand?  Why do you NOT want him to win regular season MVP?  Because of the firechan mvp curse?  

[Hebert19]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And behind Rodgers 

Yup.  One step at a time. 

[Process]

Mahomes will win it but it should be rodgers or allen. 

 

Put an average qb on each team. Chiefs still win their division and are one of the better teams in the league. Bills probably around a .500 team. Packers bottom 10 team in the league. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Process

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Depends on your benchmark. Your post appeared to imply they were mutually exclusive. 10 times makes it quite common relative to that.

 

Folks are different. Maybe you have something against Allen or, more likely, totally eschew individual honors - this is a message board and folks can choose to root for what they want. Your post has merit if winning MVP somehow means you don’t win the super bowl  - then sure I don’t want the MVP - but as I show it has happened jointly quite a few times before. 

 

 

Not sure that 10/54 is "quite common" on anyone's benchmark.

[IgotBILLStopay]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

No....:he just likes to talk smack to everyone for no apparent reason.  

 

Thanks. I rarely look at poster’s usernames - but will not take the bait anymore.

[JoPoy88]

19 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Wouldn’t you folks rather see Allen win the SB and SB MVP rather than the regular season MVP?

 

Who gives a flying bleep about the regular season MVP.

My preference is he wins all 3 of those things. Is that not allowed?

[njbuff]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

How about......ummmmm......both??

 

why is this so hard to understand?  Why do you NOT want him to win regular season MVP?  Because of the firechan mvp curse?  

Winning the regular season MVP would be great but I highly doubt that Allen himself cares if he does or not.

Just now, JoPoy88 said:

My preference is he wins all 3 of those things. Is that not allowed?

Sure why not.

 

Shouldn’t be a high priority though.

[dma0034]

Wow... MVP hasn't won the Super Bowl since 1999. That's a bit crazy imo. I think the Packers get beat before the Superbowl. Lets see if anyone can knock off the Chiefs. I'm kind of glad they won today because I don't think they'll lose more than 2 games the entire year and if they lost against the Falcons they'd focus up

[zow2]

The only luck i see is with Younghoe Koo missing a chip shot FG (for him).  He’s a pro bowler and what’s he made, like 35 in a row? but the one time he faces KC and a chance to send it to OT he misses.  it’s amazing how the really good teams get “lucky”.  Maybe the Bills have had some luck on their side too, but i’m too emotional about Bills games to notice.

[sven233]

The only MVP award I need Josh to win this season is the Super Bowl MVP.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by sven233

[njbuff]

The Bills have had some luck along the way with other teams best players being out.

 

Really wouldn’t have mattered though since none of those players on other teams is Josh Allen.

[JTown]

Personally,  I could care less about MVP.  All indications are that Josh is aware of his position and I am very grateful that he appears to be mature beyond his age.  I hope that he stays focused.

 

The accolades will be there if he does. 

 

To me, Mahomes has not been playing well the last 3-4 weeks.  I thought he was horrible at his reads today.  I hope that trend continues. 

 

[Utah John]

Just win the damn game tomorrow night.  That's the only thing that matters right now.  The Bills beat the Pats earlier this year by NOT throwing and instead running it down their throats.  If that approach still works, then that's what the Bills should do.

 

Besides, Mahomes has it locked up anyway.  Allen will get it in time.