New era in quarterbacking?

[Utah John]

When Tiger Woods appeared on the PGA scene, he instantly changed the game of golf.  He could drive farther than all the others except the muscle guys who had no other game.  And Woods had all the other game elements as well.

 

The other players looked at each other and realized they weren't in Kansas anymore,  and they all figured out how to up their own games, or they quit.

 

I'm seeing quarterback play in the NFL at a higher level than I can remember.  Where once only Rogers could make certain throws, now there's Mahomes and Allen. and sometimes Wilson.  Where once only Cam Newton could run well as a big man, now there's Allen.  And suddenly there are half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do. 

 

There were some other players with these talents here and there through the years as well, whom I haven't mentioned, but not the flood of talent that we're seeing now. 

 

Players like Brady and the Manning boys, who could work from the pocket and win, are going to have a tough time competing with multi-dimensional players. 

 

I wonder whether this is a change in the talent mix that's available, or maybe the OCs and the game itself are now figuring out they need to accommodate what these guys have to offer.  Greg Roman was a so-so OC in Buffalo.  He got to Baltimore and became a genius.  He also has Lamar Jackson, what a coincidence.  Roman's genius was to let Jackson be Jackson, and not try to limit him with what Flacco could do.

[RochesterLifer]

Well, I hope the new wave proves permanent, because apparently we have no chance at Brady!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tom-brady-hints-hes-open-to-returning-to-buccaneers-next-year-for-one-very-obvious-reason/

 

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, Utah John said:

When Tiger Woods appeared on the PGA scene, he instantly changed the game of golf.  He could drive farther than all the others except the muscle guys who had no other game.  And Woods had all the other game elements as well.

 

The other players looked at each other and realized they weren't in Kansas anymore,  and they all figured out how to up their own games, or they quit.

 

I'm seeing quarterback play in the NFL at a higher level than I can remember.  Where once only Rogers could make certain throws, now there's Mahomes and Allen. and sometimes Wilson.  Where once only Cam Newton could run well as a big man, now there's Allen.  And suddenly there are half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do. 

 

There were some other players with these talents here and there through the years as well, whom I haven't mentioned, but not the flood of talent that we're seeing now. 

 

Players like Brady and the Manning boys, who could work from the pocket and win, are going to have a tough time competing with multi-dimensional players. 

 

I wonder whether this is a change in the talent mix that's available, or maybe the OCs and the game itself are now figuring out they need to accommodate what these guys have to offer.  Greg Roman was a so-so OC in Buffalo.  He got to Baltimore and became a genius.  He also has Lamar Jackson, what a coincidence.  Roman's genius was to let Jackson be Jackson, and not try to limit him with what Flacco could do.

I think what we are seeing is the NFL building offenses that are a better fit for mobile QB's because the hit rate on traditional QB's is so low and the college game is producing a large % of pretty gifted mobile QB's. That said, no matter how much the NFL wants to adjust to the lack of true pocket passers in my opinion those players will always be the hardest to compete against.

 

While you could argue the running QB makes you defend more space that space tends to be lateral or closer to the line of scrimmage. With an elite pocket passer you need to defend that space 15+ yards downfield every play. Again, just more rare. Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, are a few of the names in your post of these type of QB's. As you said, Wilson, sort of, you could say Allen sort of. None of these guys are statues, they just can really threaten you downfield.  

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Two things that happened:

 

1) Top QB's started getting paid better than any US athletes short of the very finest in the NBA.

 

2) The game got a lot less violent for QB's around 2010.

 

That made playing QB a lot more interesting to some really great young athletes(and their parents).

 

Football is still a game of attrition at most positions but QB's now can play longer and at a higher level than just about any position in sports. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, Utah John said:

When Tiger Woods appeared on the PGA scene, he instantly changed the game of golf.  He could drive farther than all the others except the muscle guys who had no other game.  And Woods had all the other game elements as well.

 

The other players looked at each other and realized they weren't in Kansas anymore,  and they all figured out how to up their own games, or they quit.

 

I'm seeing quarterback play in the NFL at a higher level than I can remember.  Where once only Rogers could make certain throws, now there's Mahomes and Allen. and sometimes Wilson.  Where once only Cam Newton could run well as a big man, now there's Allen.  And suddenly there are half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do. 

 

There were some other players with these talents here and there through the years as well, whom I haven't mentioned, but not the flood of talent that we're seeing now. 

 

Players like Brady and the Manning boys, who could work from the pocket and win, are going to have a tough time competing with multi-dimensional players. 

 

I wonder whether this is a change in the talent mix that's available, or maybe the OCs and the game itself are now figuring out they need to accommodate what these guys have to offer.  Greg Roman was a so-so OC in Buffalo.  He got to Baltimore and became a genius.  He also has Lamar Jackson, what a coincidence.  Roman's genius was to let Jackson be Jackson, and not try to limit him with what Flacco could do.

 

Interesting POV.

 

I think it's a change in the talent mix available reflecting a change in the college football game and also a change in the NFL game to be less violent towards QBs.

 

Who are the "half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do"?  There's Lamar....There's Murray...I guess add Wilson...????

[Warcodered]

I mean we are heading into a new era The Mannings are gone Brady and Brees soon to follow and Rodgers not long after. It's a new generation coming up.

[MJS]

QB's are also protected now more than ever before. It used to be you couldn't really have a small fast guy at QB because they'd get killed. Plus, with how the college game has evolved, it has leaked slowly into the NFL over the years and those types of QB's have come with it.

 

BUT, I think defenses evolved too. Defenses are more complex and are so good at confusing guys and getting pressure. I think our days of one dimensional, pocket passers is behind us. QB's who don't have some mobility don't have what it takes to defeat these defenses anymore. All of the good young QB's in the NFL have the ability to hurt you with their legs too.

[Inigo Montoya]

What has driven the NFL towards mobile quarterbacks is the advent of players like JJ Watt, Aaron Donald, the Bosa Boys, Khalil Mack, Myles Garrett and others who have made it very expensive for a franchise to put a statue behind their offensive line.

 

Just like in nature, the QB position has adapted to it's changing environment and those QBs who can roll out and escape the pocket and make a penetrating defense pay have found a niche and are exploiting it.  Twenty years ago defensive ends and tackles just weren't the athletes that they are today and that new level of athleticism has forced offenses to adapt.  To date the most effective adaptation has been the introduction of the mobile QB.  (The fact that the defense isn't allowed to decapitate QBs today also helps a little bit too...)

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Victory Formation]

A lot of it is rules.

[PrimeTime101]

The game has changed in itself. Offenses are getting better. Passing for 300 yards and rushing for 50 i think his happening more then running for 200 and passing for 150.

 

Better then average RB's a dime a dozen.

Quality mobile QB not so much.

Top 5 Defenses are having way to many games where they get hammered.

Rule changes

Special Teams player to run down the field to hit players on kickoffs les needed.

 

the game is changed.

[JY422]

I have a son who played QB from middle school to the FCS level of college ball.  I've watched first-hand - and what I think the contributors to this thread are missing is - the change started 10+ years ago on the middle school level.  There used to be stigma about the best "athletes" playing QB so coaches took the biggest, fastest, strongest players and made them RBs, WRs, DEs, & LBs.

Not anymore.  I've watched it happen over and over again... some of the best athletes in Middle School are now the QBs. That has a trickle-UP effect.  Those big, fast, strong, athletic, QBs transition into High School, then into College and eventually we have Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen defining a new era of QB play.  

[Billzgobowlin]

12 hours ago, Utah John said:

When Tiger Woods appeared on the PGA scene, he instantly changed the game of golf.  He could drive farther than all the others except the muscle guys who had no other game.  And Woods had all the other game elements as well.

 

The other players looked at each other and realized they weren't in Kansas anymore,  and they all figured out how to up their own games, or they quit.

 

I'm seeing quarterback play in the NFL at a higher level than I can remember.  Where once only Rogers could make certain throws, now there's Mahomes and Allen. and sometimes Wilson.  Where once only Cam Newton could run well as a big man, now there's Allen.  And suddenly there are half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do. 

 

There were some other players with these talents here and there through the years as well, whom I haven't mentioned, but not the flood of talent that we're seeing now. 

 

Players like Brady and the Manning boys, who could work from the pocket and win, are going to have a tough time competing with multi-dimensional players. 

 

I wonder whether this is a change in the talent mix that's available, or maybe the OCs and the game itself are now figuring out they need to accommodate what these guys have to offer.  Greg Roman was a so-so OC in Buffalo.  He got to Baltimore and became a genius.  He also has Lamar Jackson, what a coincidence.  Roman's genius was to let Jackson be Jackson, and not try to limit him with what Flacco could do.

I know this is not your point but there was only one Michael Vick.  No QB can do what he did with the moves he had.  He was Randall Cunningham on a higher level. 

[dma0034]

13 hours ago, RochesterLifer said:

Well, I hope the new wave proves permanent, because apparently we have no chance at Brady!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tom-brady-hints-hes-open-to-returning-to-buccaneers-next-year-for-one-very-obvious-reason/

 

 

Tampa does get to play against the AFC East next year

1 hour ago, Billzgobowlin said:

I know this is not your point but there was only one Michael Vick.  No QB can do what he did with the moves he had.  He was Randall Cunningham on a higher level. 

 

Lamar Jackson??? 

[PrimeTime101]

39 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

Tampa does get to play against the AFC East next year

I doubt Brady will be playing.. hes still "thinking about it"

[billsfan89]

We will see if the pocket QB is a thing of the past or not. Mahomes mostly works out of the pocket. He runs not that often (has never had more than 300 rush yards in a season) and mostly uses his mobility to throw.

 

The last few Super Bowl's before last year were mostly  match ups featuring pocket passers. 

 

Brady vs Geoff

Brady vs Foles

Brady vs Matt Ryan

Manning vs Cam 

Brady vs Wilson

Manning vs Wilson

Flacco vs Kap

Eli Manning vs Brady

 

That's 12 QB's not known for their mobility vs 4 that are. Even the 49ers last year made it to the Big Game with Jimmy G not exactly a mobile QB. So we will wait and see if the pocket passer is dead.

[Big Turk]

16 hours ago, Utah John said:

When Tiger Woods appeared on the PGA scene, he instantly changed the game of golf.  He could drive farther than all the others except the muscle guys who had no other game.  And Woods had all the other game elements as well.

 

The other players looked at each other and realized they weren't in Kansas anymore,  and they all figured out how to up their own games, or they quit.

 

I'm seeing quarterback play in the NFL at a higher level than I can remember.  Where once only Rogers could make certain throws, now there's Mahomes and Allen. and sometimes Wilson.  Where once only Cam Newton could run well as a big man, now there's Allen.  And suddenly there are half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do. 

 

There were some other players with these talents here and there through the years as well, whom I haven't mentioned, but not the flood of talent that we're seeing now. 

 

Players like Brady and the Manning boys, who could work from the pocket and win, are going to have a tough time competing with multi-dimensional players. 

 

I wonder whether this is a change in the talent mix that's available, or maybe the OCs and the game itself are now figuring out they need to accommodate what these guys have to offer.  Greg Roman was a so-so OC in Buffalo.  He got to Baltimore and became a genius.  He also has Lamar Jackson, what a coincidence.  Roman's genius was to let Jackson be Jackson, and not try to limit him with what Flacco could do.

 

There are a lot of things at play here:

 

1) Rules drastically favoring the offense.

 

2) QBs that have coordinators building offenses around their strengths instead of trying to force them into their systems which are allowing college kids in spread offenses to step in and be successful much faster than ever before.

 

3) College concepts that have really allowed offenses to run multiple concepts/plays and let the QB read whether to run or pass based on a key defender on each play.

 

4) Holding penalties down tremendously this year allowing offenses to stay ahead of the sticks. They have been getting called a little more frequently lately than in the beginning of the year but on balance there are still far fewer.

Edited December 12, 2020 by matter2003

[DCbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

There are a lot of things at play here:

 

1) Rules drastically favoring the offense.

 

2) QBs that have coordinators building offenses around their strengths instead of trying to force them into their systems which are allowing college kids in spread offenses to step in and be successful much faster than ever before.

 

3) College concepts that have really allowed offenses to run multiple concepts/plays and let the QB read whether to run or pass based on a key defender on each play.

 

4) Holding penalties down tremendously this year allowing offenses to stay ahead of the sticks. They have been getting called a little more frequently lately than in the beginning of the year but on balance there are still far fewer.

I would add defensive pass interference is way up this year.

[C.Biscuit97]

It’s just easier to play qb. If you get touched in the pocket, it’s a penalty. If a dback touches a receiver, it’s a penalty. There is no fear of getting hit. NFL teams are using college offenses which makes the transition easier than ever. And they are giving mobile guys a chance to play the position which is extremely hard to defend. 
 

Guys like Steve Young, Randall Cunningham would have been monsters today. 

[Mr. WEO]

17 hours ago, Utah John said:

When Tiger Woods appeared on the PGA scene, he instantly changed the game of golf.  He could drive farther than all the others except the muscle guys who had no other game.  And Woods had all the other game elements as well.

 

The other players looked at each other and realized they weren't in Kansas anymore,  and they all figured out how to up their own games, or they quit.

 

I'm seeing quarterback play in the NFL at a higher level than I can remember.  Where once only Rogers could make certain throws, now there's Mahomes and Allen. and sometimes Wilson.  Where once only Cam Newton could run well as a big man, now there's Allen.  And suddenly there are half a dozen smaller QBs who can run like only Vick used to be able to do. 

 

There were some other players with these talents here and there through the years as well, whom I haven't mentioned, but not the flood of talent that we're seeing now. 

 

Players like Brady and the Manning boys, who could work from the pocket and win, are going to have a tough time competing with multi-dimensional players. 

 

I wonder whether this is a change in the talent mix that's available, or maybe the OCs and the game itself are now figuring out they need to accommodate what these guys have to offer.  Greg Roman was a so-so OC in Buffalo.  He got to Baltimore and became a genius.  He also has Lamar Jackson, what a coincidence.  Roman's genius was to let Jackson be Jackson, and not try to limit him with what Flacco could do.

 

Rodgers has been doing this for years, so has Russ Wilson.

 

Rodgers, Brees, both Mannings, Big Ben and Brady have been played for 107 seasons.  Lets see how the new Vicks/Newtons hold up before we bury the "pocket QB".

 

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Two things that happened:

 

1) Top QB's started getting paid better than any US athletes short of the very finest in the NBA.

 

2) The game got a lot less violent for QB's around 2010.

 

That made playing QB a lot more interesting to some really great young athletes(and their parents).

 

Football is still a game of attrition at most positions but QB's now can play longer and at a higher level than just about any position in sports. 

 

 

 

Every year QBs miss games or gone for the season.  Look at the mess in Dallas this year, and Steelers last year.  In 2018, Washington lost Smith and McCoy 2 weeks apart--both with broken legs.

 

Kelly, Marino and Elway missed 52 games out of 684 games. Unless you believe that those guys were somehow more immune to injury than todays QB athletes, then not much has changed for QBs.

 

Also:

 

10 NFL QBs have an average annual salary of $30 million or more, compared to 23 NBA players and 14 MLB.  Of the largest sport contracts signed for the 3 leagues, Mahomes is #1, but the only other QB in the top 50 is Watson (35).  The rest are all MLB and NBA.  And those are guaranteed contracts.

 

 

 

[BringBackFlutie]

17 hours ago, RochesterLifer said:

Well, I hope the new wave proves permanent, because apparently we have no chance at Brady!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tom-brady-hints-hes-open-to-returning-to-buccaneers-next-year-for-one-very-obvious-reason/

 

 

Two things I picked up from that:

 

1. Tom Brady is no longer native to California.  I wonder where he's newly been born?  

2. He wants you to know that if he's living, he won't be dead.

[BADOLBILZ]

22 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

Every year QBs miss games or gone for the season.  Look at the mess in Dallas this year, and Steelers last year.  In 2018, Washington lost Smith and McCoy 2 weeks apart--both with broken legs.

 

Kelly, Marino and Elway missed 52 games out of 684 games. Unless you believe that those guys were somehow more immune to injury than todays QB athletes, then not much has changed for QBs.

 

Also:

 

10 NFL QBs have an average annual salary of $30 million or more, compared to 23 NBA players and 14 MLB.  Of the largest sport contracts signed for the 3 leagues, Mahomes is #1, but the only other QB in the top 50 is Watson (35).  The rest are all MLB and NBA.  And those are guaranteed contracts.

 

 

 

 

Major injuries happen in every season to NBA players or MLB players too.

 

Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins.....all "max" contract players......all missed seasons recently and/or currently.

 

Then think of all of the pitchers who end up getting Tommy John surgery.   Nearly 20% of all pitchers end up getting TJ.

 

Injuries happen in every sport.

 

QB career expectancy has exploded.    Instead of guys built like LB's in Kelly and Marino enduring the punishment and flaming out at 36-37..............now we have much more slightly built soft tossers like Brady and Brees playing at a very high level into their 40's. 

 

The NBA is the only real good comparison to QB pay-potential........guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or DeShaun Watson now have the potential to earn $30M-$40M type money for 15-17 years.........great NBA players who enter the league at 19 have the potential to make that kind of money.

 

In MLB you basically play 6 years(plus any years of minor league service) to reach unrestricted free agency between the ages of 27-30.   And 30 teams have 10 positions each that a player could earn $30M playing if they are great enough.   So 14 out of 300 MLB starters/aces make top dollar.  In the NFL 10 of 32 starting QB's make top dollar.    Profiling as a starting QB made it much easier for top baseball prospects like Mahomes and Kyler Murray to choose football. 

 

I will say this though..........in MLB a glut of talent caused by massive amounts of foreign players and youth baseball enrollment in the US skyrocketing has created a minor league system with a bunch of formerly-MLB-worthy talent in limbo and that surplus has really turned the pay scale of the league into much more of a have and have-not situation.

 

In football.........there are more capable QB's than ever.    The talent level is night and day from 15 years ago.   For example......last years leading yardage passer is a backup QB in New Orleans this year.    If the trend continues........2-3 stud QB's entering the league every year + top QB's playing for 20 years = that will alter the pay scale.

 

[Billzgobowlin]

7 hours ago, dma0034 said:

 

Tampa does get to play against the AFC East next year

 

Lamar Jackson??? 

Nope not the same...  Don't get me wrong Jackson can run but the lateral quickness and the ability to juke someone out on a dime is something that I haven't seen since.

[Maynard]

Vick was way more explosive then Jackson. Not even close. 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Major injuries happen in every season to NBA players or MLB players too.

 

Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins.....all "max" contract players......all missed seasons recently and/or currently.

 

Then think of all of the pitchers who end up getting Tommy John surgery.   Nearly 20% of all pitchers end up getting TJ.

 

Injuries happen in every sport.

 

QB career expectancy has exploded.    Instead of guys built like LB's in Kelly and Marino enduring the punishment and flaming out at 36-37..............now we have much more slightly built soft tossers like Brady and Brees playing at a very high level into their 40's. 

 

The NBA is the only real good comparison to QB pay-potential........guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or DeShaun Watson now have the potential to earn $30M-$40M type money for 15-17 years.........great NBA players who enter the league at 19 have the potential to make that kind of money.

 

In MLB you basically play 6 years(plus any years of minor league service) to reach unrestricted free agency between the ages of 27-30.   And 30 teams have 10 positions each that a player could earn $30M playing if they are great enough.   So 14 out of 300 MLB starters/aces make top dollar.  In the NFL 10 of 32 starting QB's make top dollar.    Profiling as a starting QB made it much easier for top baseball prospects like Mahomes and Kyler Murray to choose football. 

 

I will say this though..........in MLB a glut of talent caused by massive amounts of foreign players and youth baseball enrollment in the US skyrocketing has created a minor league system with a bunch of formerly-MLB-worthy talent in limbo and that surplus has really turned the pay scale of the league into much more of a have and have-not situation.

 

In football.........there are more capable QB's than ever.    The talent level is night and day from 15 years ago.   For example......last years leading yardage passer is a backup QB in New Orleans this year.    If the trend continues........2-3 stud QB's entering the league every year + top QB's playing for 20 years = that will alter the pay scale.

 

 

You said this:  

"1) Top QB's started getting paid better than any US athletes short of the very finest in the NBA."  Not true, as I showed---both in annual salaries and total contracts (where there are 2 in the top 50.  Two have MLB type contracts).  Mahomes and Murray went the the NFL because they were easy 1st round NFL prospects (but making relatively little money.  They weren't going to be playing in the MLB as rookies, if at all ever.

 

"Great NBA players"?  Making more than $30 million are such "greats" as Kevin Love (TOTAL bum), Tobias Harris, Mike Conley, Blake Griffin (done),  John Wall.

 

 

"Built like LBs"??  Kelly and Elway were under 220lbs.  Lightweights.  Both Mannings were bigger.   Elway played 16 seasons, Marino 17.  Moon played 17, Favre played 20.  None of this is new, "2010" or not. 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

Sometimes I wonder if it's as simple as natural population growth and football becoming more popular over the last 20 years. More kids playing football equals more chances a few of them will grow up to be stars.

[Orlando Tim]

The biggest change to me from 30 years ago is teams seem more willing to tailor the offense around the player (LJ, Murray) vs telling the player to learn the system. I think old school coaches were so afraid of appearing dumb they would never do anything out of the ordinary.

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You said this:  

"1) Top QB's started getting paid better than any US athletes short of the very finest in the NBA."  Not true, as I showed---both in annual salaries and total contracts (where there are 2 in the top 50.  Two have MLB type contracts).  Mahomes and Murray went the the NFL because they were easy 1st round NFL prospects (but making relatively little money.  They weren't going to be playing in the MLB as rookies, if at all ever.

 

"Great NBA players"?  Making more than $30 million are such "greats" as Kevin Love (TOTAL bum), Tobias Harris, Mike Conley, Blake Griffin (done),  John Wall.

 

 

"Built like LBs"??  Kelly and Elway were under 220lbs.  Lightweights.  Both Mannings were bigger.   Elway played 16 seasons, Marino 17.  Moon played 17, Favre played 20.  None of this is new, "2010" or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

1) Murray was a high 1st round pick and given a $5M bonus by the Oakland A's.   He wasn't likely to play in MLB as a rookie but probably in year 2.    Years ago going to MLB would have been the easy choice for him.    Less violent......longer career........guranteed contracts and very good baseball players got paid more than great QB's.    Those aren't the economics of baseball anymore.   Careers are shorter with PED's legislated better.......teams work to delay free agency and are loathe to pay players past their age 32 year any longer(which is still middle of the prime of a modern QB)..........and the supply greatly exceeds the demand everywhere except pitcher and catcher........neither of which Murray played.

 

2) Carson Wentz is in your "top paid QB" list is he not?..........he's not a top QB.........but he is paid $30M.........it works both ways.........all leagues have dudes who flame out or get overpaid for one reason or another.   All those NBA players you mentioned were All Stars.   That represents the league's finest.  

 

3) Yes, built like LB's.   I don't think Jim Kelly was less than 220 pounds at any point after HS.   Penn State wanted him as a LB.  That's a list of big, strong dudes.  Jim Kelly was physically beaten after age 35 season.  Marino was finished after 37 and diminished before that.   Nowadays they both play another 5 years at a high level and pocket an extra $150M in the process.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

The biggest change to me from 30 years ago is teams seem more willing to tailor the offense around the player (LJ, Murray) vs telling the player to learn the system. I think old school coaches were so afraid of appearing dumb they would never do anything out of the ordinary.

 

 

I like to use Charlie Ward as an example of this.

 

If Charlie Ward wasn't a better QB prospect than Russell Wilson I will eat my hat...........but in that NFL he wasn't going to get a system tailored to him like Russ.

 

And the earning potential even as a fringe NBA player was better than being a good NFL QB.    Charlie Ward made $34M in 12 seasons as a serviceable player in the NBA........Jim Kelly made $28M in 11 seasons as a HOF QB.   Their careers didn't directly overlay but the fact that Ward would have finished anywhere near a HOF QB in career earnings says it all.   

Edited December 13, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Murray was a high 1st round pick and given a $5M bonus by the Oakland A's.   He wasn't likely to play in MLB as a rookie but probably in year 2.    Years ago going to MLB would have been the easy choice for him.    Less violent......longer career........guranteed contracts and very good baseball players got paid more than great QB's.    Those aren't the economics of baseball anymore.   Careers are shorter with PED's legislated better.......teams work to delay free agency and are loathe to pay players past their age 32 year any longer(which is still middle of the prime of a modern QB)..........and the supply greatly exceeds the demand everywhere except pitcher and catcher........neither of which Murray played.

 

2) Carson Wentz is in your "top paid QB" list is he not?..........he's not a top QB.........but he is paid $30M.........it works both ways.........all leagues have dudes who flame out or get overpaid for one reason or another.   All those NBA players you mentioned were All Stars.   That represents the league's finest.  

 

3) Yes, built like LB's.   I don't think Jim Kelly was less than 220 pounds at any point after HS.   Penn State wanted him as a LB.  That's a list of big, strong dudes.  Jim Kelly was physically beaten after age 35 season.  Marino was finished after 37 and diminished before that.   Nowadays they both play another 5 years at a high level and pocket an extra $150M in the process.

 

1).Again, I was responding to your claim that top paid NFL QBs are only outearned by the very finest in the NBA.  That's just not true.    They are outearned by a lot of baseball players as well.  

 

2).  Wentz was an "all star" as well.  Pro Bowl. 

 

3). You're right.  Kelly was 225 lbs.  He only lasted 11 seasons---significantly less than Elway and Marino.  Again, the phenomenon of QBs having long careers is not a new one.  But there's little chance that all those guys if playing these days, would play 20 years or more.   The Mannings didn't.   And having "new breed" mobile QBs as the ones who will likely have careers that long doesn't make much sense.  The guys with the highest longevity are essentially pocket passers.  There's no chance Kyler Murray, Tua will be paying til they are 40.  Odds are against Josh as well.    It's just not that common and it won't be more so going forward.

 

As for 2010---again, no rule changes have prevented lots of QBs from getting injuries that knock them out for the season.  I've given examples (plus Prescott this season) and compared that to missed games by the HOFers in that '83 draft.  QB's are getting wrecked out there.  

[BADOLBILZ]

31 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

1).Again, I was responding to your claim that top paid NFL QBs are only outearned by the very finest in the NBA.  That's just not true.    They are outearned by a lot of baseball players as well.  

 

2).  Wentz was an "all star" as well.  Pro Bowl. 

 

3). You're right.  Kelly was 225 lbs.  He only lasted 11 seasons---significantly less than Elway and Marino.  Again, the phenomenon of QBs having long careers is not a new one.  But there's little chance that all those guys if playing these days, would play 20 years or more.   The Mannings didn't.   And having "new breed" mobile QBs as the ones who will likely have careers that long doesn't make much sense.  The guys with the highest longevity are essentially pocket passers.  There's no chance Kyler Murray, Tua will be paying til they are 40.  Odds are against Josh as well.    It's just not that common and it won't be more so going forward.

 

As for 2010---again, no rule changes have prevented lots of QBs from getting injuries that knock them out for the season.  I've given examples (plus Prescott this season) and compared that to missed games by the HOFers in that '83 draft.  QB's are getting wrecked out there.  

 

 

1) Like I said there are 300 MLB starting positions.......any one of them COULD earn $30M per year if they are great enough........only 14 do.     That's a less than 5% chance.    10 of 30 NFL starting QB's earn over $30M.  Do the math.  If your hangup is that I didn't say that only NBA all-stars have a better chance of earning $30M per year then that's minutia and any QB who was capable of being an NBA all-star would almost certainly bypass football........there just hasn't been one who could.   The economics have changed for QB's though.....as I said in the post above........former Heisman trophy winning QB Charlie Ward earned more in the NBA as a reserve point guard averaging 6 points and 4 assists in 12 years than Jim Kelly did as a HOF QB in 11.   That's not the way the economics work any longer and QB's just don't take the punishment that Jim Kelly did either.  I'm not saying that QB's didn't have long careers before.....the lack of quality in the league often lead to QB's having the opportunity to play even far past the point where they were good.   But QB's now have potential to play longer and earn more now than ever.   That's attractive to families deciding where to direct their talented son's skills.

 

2) Exactly my point.  There are comps.

 

3) The QB of the class of 83' who lasted the longest was the scrambling QB John Elway.  Russell Wilson is a scrambling QB who will eventually be the most sacked QB in NFL history........he is healthy at age 32 and plans to play until age 45 and I don't doubt him.    Being more athletic doesn't make you less likely to have a long career at QB.     

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Like I said there are 300 MLB starting positions.......any one of them COULD earn $30M per year if they are great enough........only 14 do.     That's a less than 5% chance.    10 of 30 NFL starting QB's earn over $30M.  Do the math.  If your hangup is that I didn't say that only NBA all-stars have a better chance of earning $30M per year then that's minutia and any QB who was capable of being an NBA all-star would almost certainly bypass football........there just hasn't been one who could.   The economics have changed for QB's though.....as I said in the post above........former Heisman trophy winning QB Charlie Ward earned more in the NBA as a reserve point guard averaging 6 points and 4 assists in 12 years than Jim Kelly did as a HOF QB in 11.   That's not the way the economics work any longer and QB's just don't take the punishment that Jim Kelly did either.  I'm not saying that QB's didn't have long careers before.....the lack of quality in the league often lead to QB's having the opportunity to play even far past the point where they were good.   But QB's now have potential to play longer and earn more now than ever.   That's attractive to families deciding where to direct their talented son's skills.

 

2) Exactly my point.  There are comps.

 

3) The QB of the class of 83' who lasted the longest was the scrambling QB John Elway.  Russell Wilson is a scrambling QB who will eventually be the most sacked QB in NFL history........he is healthy at age 32 and plans to play until age 45 and I don't doubt him.    Being more athletic doesn't make you less likely to have a long career at QB.     

I did the math.  See above.  You keep changing your argument—now it’s “who has a better chance of making $30”.  Ok..

 

Again,  Marino played 1 season longer than Elway.  “Scrambling Elway” ran for more than 300 yards a season just one time.  Marino was a statue and he went 17 years.  Kelly couldn’t hold up as well in the same era.   He would never have made it to 20 years in any era.  That’s never going to be a standard in the NFL.  A HOF talent would be the most likely candidate in any era.  There is nothing about the position (or rules/penalties) that will change that.  
 

Your claim that the future most hit QB in league history will also be the first ever to play until age 45 makes no sense.  

 

 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Like I said there are 300 MLB starting positions.......any one of them COULD earn $30M per year if they are great enough........only 14 do.     That's a less than 5% chance.    10 of 30 NFL starting QB's earn over $30M.  Do the math.  If your hangup is that I didn't say that only NBA all-stars have a better chance of earning $30M per year then that's minutia and any QB who was capable of being an NBA all-star would almost certainly bypass football........there just hasn't been one who could.   The economics have changed for QB's though.....as I said in the post above........former Heisman trophy winning QB Charlie Ward earned more in the NBA as a reserve point guard averaging 6 points and 4 assists in 12 years than Jim Kelly did as a HOF QB in 11.   That's not the way the economics work any longer and QB's just don't take the punishment that Jim Kelly did either.  I'm not saying that QB's didn't have long careers before.....the lack of quality in the league often lead to QB's having the opportunity to play even far past the point where they were good.   But QB's now have potential to play longer and earn more now than ever.   That's attractive to families deciding where to direct their talented son's skills.

 

2) Exactly my point.  There are comps.

 

3) The QB of the class of 83' who lasted the longest was the scrambling QB John Elway.  Russell Wilson is a scrambling QB who will eventually be the most sacked QB in NFL history........he is healthy at age 32 and plans to play until age 45 and I don't doubt him.    Being more athletic doesn't make you less likely to have a long career at QB.     

There are 8 players in the NFL with AAV of $30M.  There are 13 in the MLB.

Edited December 13, 2020 by FireChans