djp14150 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags down by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrentators on TV thought they were stupid moves. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability of tie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. the Raiders didn’t try it. Gruden is too old school. Edited October 5, 2020 by djp14150 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, djp14150 said: Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. if you aren’t going to talk about why don’t start the thread. It’s like kicking the extra point when you scored a touchdown down 8 at the end of the game. Guaranteed failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) Commentators were right - down 14 makes no sense. Eight points leaves it as 6 - a FG still makes it a two score game. Take the point and then you still have to score again. You want to win go for 2 at the end. The 2 points just does not help enough to make the risk. Also fix the title and the initial post so that people can read it please. Edited October 4, 2020 by Rochesterfan 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 You go for two because it you still have some time on the clock to potentially overcome missing it. If you go for two later and miss it, you have no time to overcome that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Doen ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MJS said: You go for two because it you still have some time on the clock to potentially overcome missing it. If you go for two later and miss it, you have no time to overcome that. That would be true down 15 or 16 - why go for 2 when only down by 14. In the final standings - both teams still lost. Jags by 8 and Detroit by 6. Both still needed another TD. Edited October 4, 2020 by Rochesterfan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, djp14150 said: Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. Wtf? in what country are you “a professional data scientist”? 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: That would be true down 15 or 16 - why go for 2 when only down by 14. In the final standings - both teams still lost. Jags by 8 and Detroit by 6. Both still needed another TD. Ok, yeah. I missed that part of it. Pay me no heed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills1212 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Sometimes its so bad you just kinda feel bad even bothering to point out why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Wtf? in what country are you “a professional data scientist”? That’s exactly what I was thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Rc2catch said: That’s exactly what I was thinking Plus, the Lions are bad at 3 point conversions; among the worst since 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Topic titles must reflect the content of the topic (and it must contain more than just a name). This helps to reduce the number of duplicate topics and makes the community much more user friendly. Please edit the title so that it properly reflects the discussion that you started. The OP may edit the title on a computer by clicking on it and holding Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Huff Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 You know, I’m a bit of a scientist myself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Did anyone check to see if the OP had a stroke while typing this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Does OP smell burnt toast? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 As someone who has a terrible time with spelling mistakes on his phone, I sympathize. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shortchaz Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Going for two in that scenario slightly increases your chances of winning the game in regulation. The absolute chance is still low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 hours ago, djp14150 said: Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. Hope your boss doesn't see this post. You may be looking for a new job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 hours ago, djp14150 said: Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. high effort post. Not even an attempt at spelling or coherency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 41 minutes ago, SDS said: As someone who has a terrible time with spelling mistakes on his phone, I sympathize. LOL Those weren’t just spelling errors... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, djp14150 said: Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. Stop drunk posting 1 hour ago, SDS said: As someone who has a terrible time with spelling mistakes on his phone, I sympathize. LOL I don't, considering he typed it wrong in the title and the body. Does anyone proofread or no?🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Joshin' Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Please show your work - I would like to see the stats behind that conclusion. It may be right but "analytics" are used to make announcers look smart more than they have hard data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real McClappy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) What is the NFL success rate at 2pt conversion? The reason if down 14 and you make your first 2pt conversion and get another TD with extra point you can win. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD, on the next TD you go for another 2pt to tie. So, it all comes down to the 1st question. What is the teams success rate at 2 point conversions? Add on: Close to 50% https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-two-point-conversion-success-rate/ Edited October 5, 2020 by Real McNasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandemonium Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 I agree with going for 2 down 14 and told my friend I thought the raiders should have done It while watching the game. If you make it, you tie with another td and win by kicking the extra point. If you don’t make it, you can still tie by going for 2 if you score again. The odds of making at least 1 two point conversion on 2 attempts are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 It's ok to go for two because the league success rate is right around 50%. If you make even one of them its a tie. If you make the first one and kick an XP on the second one you win. The odds say if you score twice going for two after the first score you are more likely to tie or win than lose. 5 minutes ago, Real McNasty said: What is the NFL success rate at 2pt conversion? The reason if down 14 and you make your first 2pt conversion and get another TD with extra point you can win. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD, on the next TD you go for another 2pt to tie. So, it all comes down to the 1st question. What is the teams success rate at 2 point conversions? At this point, I might take our offense over a Bass XP attempt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real McClappy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said: At this point, I might take our offense over a Bass XP attempt Right? Our kicking game is what has me more worried than anything else right now. Zero confidence in Bojo or Bass right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Real McNasty said: Right? Our kicking game is what has me more worried than anything else right now. Zero confidence in Bojo or Bass right now. There must be someone better than Bojo they can find. Bass has yet to attempt a FG beyond 40 yards I think. Will be interesting the first time McD has to make a decision on a 52 yard attempt Edited October 5, 2020 by Ethan in Portland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 5 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: That would be true down 15 or 16 - why go for 2 when only down by 14. In the final standings - both teams still lost. Jags by 8 and Detroit by 6. Both still needed another TD. From what I remember its a win probability thing. If u score the 2 tds and kick xps, u cannot win the game. Going for 2 the first time gives u a 6 pt deficit, this gives u a chance to win the game. If u go for 2 the 2nd time, u lose if u don't get it. If u don't get it the first time u just have to try and get it again - which is the same basic coin flip as the first one. 1 hour ago, Chandemonium said: I agree with going for 2 down 14 and told my friend I thought the raiders should have done It while watching the game. If you make it, you tie with another td and win by kicking the extra point. If you don’t make it, you can still tie by going for 2 if you score again. The odds of making at least 1 two point conversion on 2 attempts are pretty good. And if you make it on the first attempt, you would kick to win. 2 XPs gives u a 0 percent chance of victory on 2 possessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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