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Breaking news: Dawkins signs four year deal worth $60 mill


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6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

I kind of doubt it, I think it's lower than 5th or 6th. 

 

You're right that Spotrac lists him that way now, but I believe they'll adjust that downwards as they go back and look at it. It'll come out about 16th, I believe. Their own pages don't agree right now, but they'll get around to cleaning this up. This seems to be one of those internet problems caused by everyone wanting to get everything on the net as soon as possible.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/tackle/

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dion-dawkins-21805/

 

These days when they announce contracts they always release the numbers and spin the whole thing as an extension. That way they can massage the player's ego a bit. This deal isn't four years and $60 mill. It's four more years and $60 mill more.

 

He's now under contract for a total of five years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024) and will receive during those five years $61,035,441. Spotrac does confirm that. So yeah, it's a four-year $60 mill extension, but those aren't the numbers you divide to get his average per year. His average per year is just a few thousand north of $12.2 per year. This is a team-friendly deal.


Good minds Thurmon.  I didn’t want to comment until it came out on Spotrac it went from four to five years.  I wasn’t sure until reported if possibly they just tore up the rookie contract and gave the four year extension or was it as you stated really five years and the numbers you stated.  Both sides win.  Dawkins gets lifetime security, and we extend a Solid LT at a good price for five years.  I hope they do the same with Milano as it would be nice to get him set up for five years at that type of deal.  Spotrac has Milano at a market value of $13 mil., but if he took the same as Dawkins meaning adding a $13 mil. extension on top of his $2.13 mil., he would be an average of $10.8 mil. for the next five years.  That would. Be another fair deal for another key piece.  He’s not easily replaceable as has been stated by some.  He’s been a steal in the fifth round for three years.

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Seems to me that with Dawkins and Morse locked in they need one more O Lineman to get them where they need to be. You’d like to have three out of five in the position where you don’t worry about breaking up the communication and chemistry year after year. Who’s the third? I assume OBD is praying it’s Ford.

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3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


Good minds Thurmon.  I didn’t want to comment until it came out on Spotrac it went from four to five years.  I wasn’t sure until reported if possibly they just tore up the rookie contract and gave the four year extension or was it as you stated really five years and the numbers you stated.  Both sides win.  Dawkins gets lifetime security, and we extend a Solid LT at a good price for five years.  I hope they do the same with Milano as it would be nice to get him set up for five years at that type of deal.  Spotrac has Milano at a market value of $13 mil., but if he took the same as Dawkins meaning adding a $13 mil. extension on top of his $2.13 mil., he would be an average of $10.8 mil. for the next five years.  That would. Be another fair deal for another key piece.  He’s not easily replaceable as has been stated by some.  He’s been a steal in the fifth round for three years.

I appreciate the clarification and it explains why both sides did it, it guaranteed Dawkins $34 million when he knows the next two years might be slim pickings for Free agents and Buffalo gets a player on a good contract for 5 years. It makes more sense than I originally thought

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He was a big part of that. He wasn't a top 5 center in the league though. Not in 2019. I would characterise him as top 5 or 6 in pass protection, bottom half in run blocking. 

Responding to both Gunner and Thurm here. 

 

Gunner, I think you actually prove Thurm's point a bit.  There is no established methodology for ranking players by compensation.  You can compare new deals, which is what Gunner is doing, or you can compare average comp going forward from here, which is what Thurm is doing, and you get different numbers.   Exact placement on some theoretical list isn't important, it isn't precise. 

 

What I think almost everyone seems to agree on is that Dawkins isn't a top three tackle and he didn't get top three money.  My big fear in free agency is that a really good position player squeezes top three or top one money out of management, because the player almost never turns out to be worth it., and that contract hurts the team's ability to get other talent.  My fear on the other side is really good player leaves because someone else gives him top three money, and the Bills have a hold.  

 

What we know about Dawkins is that he's good and could be better and the Bills didn't drop top three money on him, so I'm happy. 

 

As for Morse, I had the same sense of his 2019 as Gunner.  By the end of the year I saw him as a great technician, in the sense that he seemed to execute really well - he was in position, balanced, aware.  He didn't seem to dominate physically the way a top offensive lineman does.  I think, however, that that kind of technical execution excellence makes a center really valuable.  The line operates very much as a unit, and the center leads the unit.  What the rest of the unit sees in Morse is a guy who is going to get there for the double team every time he's supposed to get there, he's going to be seven yards downfield every time he's supposed to be there, he's going to make the right line calls every time.  That is, I think Morse's consistency makes him very valuable, and may make him top 5 in a different sense.  Not top 5 as a one on one physical presence, but he may bery well be top five in a unit leadership sense.  

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If he's signing a new deal, I'm betting that he gets his signing bonus now, and that would make sense as there is cap room to accommodate it.  If that's true, then it's truly a 5-year ~$61M deal, which would put him at 12th among LTs. 

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36 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Seems to me that with Dawkins and Morse locked in they need one more O Lineman to get them where they need to be. You’d like to have three out of five in the position where you don’t worry about breaking up the communication and chemistry year after year. Who’s the third? I assume OBD is praying it’s Ford.

This relates to something I've been thinking about for a while.  It seems clear to me that Beane has a system that helps him figure out how much he will spend on each player - he knows that if he spends too much here, it means he doesn't have enough to spend there, and he wants to stay in balance.   And in the back of his head he's already figuring how he will adjust the system if he writes that big contract for Allen.  

 

He also has a system for managing talent.  He seems to understand well that the team is a collection of players that keeps changing, that there's a flow of players through the organization, ever-changing.  His job is to maintain a level of talent high enough to play well, and McDermott's job is keep adjusting to the flow.  With respect to the offensive line, Beane's job is to be sure there's good talent on the oline, to be sure there's good experience on the oline, and to be sure that every season a majority of the guys on the line played together in Buffalo the season before.  That is, sort of as you say, his job is that he always wants to have at least three veteran starters returning.  As you say, he now  has two (well, he already had two, because Dawkins and Morse were returning even without the Dawkins deal).  And he has Spain.   So he's got his three, and this is actually the first season where he's had three.  Ford is still a question mark, but he's likely to be four.  

 

The point is, though, that it's very hard to have the same three for the long term, because between contracts and injuries, the personnel keeps changing.  The days of keeping your line in tact for five years or more are long gone.  So the point is to have some kind of rotation where you always have at least three good veterans coming back, ideally a fourth and a fifth coming back (like rookies and unproven veterans).  Plus, I think we've seen over the past two years that Beane's model for adding players to this rotation is to add veterans from other team, like Winters, Boehm and Williams, plus the guys he added last year) and to sprinkle in an occasional high pick (Ford) and promising but unproven youngsters (Bates).  

 

I think that Beane's offensive line recipe looks something like that.  As I said, this is the first season he's giving McDermott all of the ingredients.  As I think about it, I think that's one of the reasons that they didn't feel a need to bolster the offensive line in the draft or to make a big splash in free agency at those positions.  They now have their rotation in place, and all that's necessary is annual maintenance to replace guys as they get old, get injured, or don't develop.  

11 minutes ago, Doc said:

If he's signing a new deal, I'm betting that he gets his signing bonus now, and that would make sense as there is cap room to accommodate it.  If that's true, then it's truly a 5-year ~$61M deal, which would put him at 12th among LTs. 

And if that's the right way to look at it, then I think it's a good deal for both sides.   Dawkins could legitimately have held out 8th money, and the Bills would have liked getting away with paying 16th money, and both decided it was in their interests not to squeeze the other.  

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And if that's the right way to look at it, then I think it's a good deal for both sides.   Dawkins could legitimately have held out 8th money, and the Bills would have liked getting away with paying 16th money, and both decided it was in their interests not to squeeze the other.  

 

I just can't see him signing a contract that says "in a year from now you will be paid..."  And spreading the signing bonus out over 5 years instead of 4 makes too much sense.

 

And I think they wanted more and the Bills wanted to pay less, but IMHO it was a great deal.  I certainly would have expected more and in a year or so, it will probably look like an even bigger bargain.  Hopefully they were able to sell him on taking a discount and that they'll be able to do that with more players going forward.

Edited by Doc
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

As for Morse, I had the same sense of his 2019 as Gunner.  By the end of the year I saw him as a great technician, in the sense that he seemed to execute really well - he was in position, balanced, aware.  He didn't seem to dominate physically the way a top offensive lineman does.  I think, however, that that kind of technical execution excellence makes a center really valuable.  The line operates very much as a unit, and the center leads the unit.  What the rest of the unit sees in Morse is a guy who is going to get there for the double team every time he's supposed to get there, he's going to be seven yards downfield every time he's supposed to be there, he's going to make the right line calls every time.  That is, I think Morse's consistency makes him very valuable, and may make him top 5 in a different sense.  Not top 5 as a one on one physical presence, but he may bery well be top five in a unit leadership sense.  

 

I largely agree with this. At his best he is a top 5 center. He wasn't in 2019. Doesn't mean I don't like the signing or that he isn't valuable. But when you look at the whole package the Bills got in 2019 it wasn't better than what 27 other teams got. There was however a time when Morse was supposed to be there on a downfield block and wasn't and it was the QB keeper in the playoff game. 

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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I largely agree with this. At his best he is a top 5 center. He wasn't in 2019. Doesn't mean I don't like the signing or that he isn't valuable. But when you look at the whole package the Bills got in 2019 it wasn't better than what 27 other teams got. There was however a time when Morse was supposed to be there on a downfield block and wasn't and it was the QB keeper in the playoff game. 

I thought a TE missed that block?  Knox maybe?

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23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There was however a time when Morse was supposed to be there on a downfield block and wasn't and it was the QB keeper in the playoff game. 

You think that play doesn't eat at him?  I hate watching that replay. 

 

Nobody's perfect. 

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3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

I just can't see him signing a contract that says "in a year from now you will be paid..."  And spreading the signing bonus out over 5 years instead of 4 makes too much sense.

 

And I think they wanted more and the Bills wanted to pay less, but IMHO it was a great deal.  I certainly would have expected more and in a year or so, it will probably look like an even bigger bargain.  Hopefully they were able to sell him on taking a discount and that they'll be able to do that with more players going forward.

 

No way he walked out of the building yesterday without a check. It's a 5 year deal. ?

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5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Seems to me that with Dawkins and Morse locked in they need one more O Lineman to get them where they need to be. You’d like to have three out of five in the position where you don’t worry about breaking up the communication and chemistry year after year. Who’s the third? I assume OBD is praying it’s Ford.

I think Spain is the 2nd best OL on the team next to Dawkins. 

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5 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Perhaps it has been mentioned already but....

Dawkins was picked in the last draft run by Whaley, correct ? So the 2017 draft produced Tre White, Dawkins and Milano. For all the flack he gets, Whaley should be acknoweldged for his final draft which produced 3 solid starters. 

 

His drafts produced a lot of competent/good/great players. The problem was the constant change in schemes and player needs. That 5th Round LB hit is a CLASSIC Whales move.

 

Outside of QBs and WRs, Whaley drafted well. Even if folks dont want to hear it.

 

The bigger problem came in "building a team" around the cap.

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23 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Perhaps it has been mentioned already but....

Dawkins was picked in the last draft run by Whaley, correct ? So the 2017 draft produced Tre White, Dawkins and Milano. For all the flack he gets, Whaley should be acknoweldged for his final draft which produced 3 solid starters. 

 

Was it Whaley who picked them or McD?

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3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Was it Whaley who picked them or McD?

 

Don't let anyone fool you, it was all McDermott as everyone knew Whaley was about to be shown the door.

 

They didn't fire Whaley in typical fashion, but we knew he was out the door nonetheless.

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4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Was it Whaley who picked them or McD?

 

Just now, njbuff said:

 

Don't let anyone fool you, it was all McDermott as everyone knew Whaley was about to be shown the door.

 

They didn't fire Whaley in typical fashion, but we knew he was out the door nonetheless.

 

McD used Whaley's Team's scouting reports and player analysis. It was the info and guidance Whales gave him that allowed him to make those picks.

 

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

McD used Whaley's Team's scouting reports and player analysis. It was the info and guidance Whales gave him that allowed him to make those picks.

 

 

McDermott had the final say so.

 

Whaley was abysmal. 

 

Also, remember he said that Manuel had "it".

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Perhaps it has been mentioned already but....

Dawkins was picked in the last draft run by Whaley, correct ? So the 2017 draft produced Tre White, Dawkins and Milano. For all the flack he gets, Whaley should be acknoweldged for his final draft which produced 3 solid starters. 

The Weasel and Whaley are the main reason for 20 years of hell. Whaleys ability to evaluate the most important position in football was horrid. Whaley was really bad at evaluating offensive positions in general and I thought he was a horrible GM. No team even offered him a deal when the Bills released him, that right there tells you just how bad Whaley was. Not one NLF team even offed him a job with all the bad GM's that are currently employed on NFL teams, that means Whaley was really bad. Whaleys press conferences where unbearable to watch. I really think McD was the main guy pulling the strings in that draft, there is no way that you give a GM that you are about to fire full power in that draft and to be honest I don't think Whaley ever had the true power as a GM. He was treated like a elevated scout with slight veto power. Whaley $*&^%$ ass. 

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32 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Don't let anyone fool you, it was all McDermott as everyone knew Whaley was about to be shown the door.

 

They didn't fire Whaley in typical fashion, but we knew he was out the door nonetheless.

 

29 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

McD used Whaley's Team's scouting reports and player analysis. It was the info and guidance Whales gave him that allowed him to make those picks.

 

Curious to see who Whaley would have taken at 10 if he ran the draft.

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3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

He's been on record shortly after the draft (firing) saying Watson was his pick.

Well, so much for Whaley not knowing what he was doing. 

 

Or was it some linebacker named Watson?  

 

Anyway, I'm not into blaming people.  Those years were horrible, whoever was responsible. 

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1 hour ago, njbuff said:

Also, remember he said that Manuel had "it"


You can’t really say he lied; he just didn’t clarify what “it” was. Turns out he was talking about EJ’s ability to draw defenses Offside with a hard count. 

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5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

As long as we are guessing:

Milano - 4 years and $48M

Tre - 5 years and $100M

 

Think they are both in the ballpark. Jalen Ramsey is the one to watch for Tre. He will completely reset the market. The Eagles made Slay the top paid guy at $16.6 per year. Ramsey will be above $18m for sure. He could get to $20m. If I am Tre's people I want more than Ramsey gets. 

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10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think they are both in the ballpark. Jalen Ramsey is the one to watch for Tre. He will completely reset the market. The Eagles made Slay the top paid guy at $16.6 per year. Ramsey will be above $18m for sure. He could get to $20m. If I am Tre's people I want more than Ramsey gets. 

I don’t think Tre signs unless it resets the market. It’s as much about the optics as anything. I don’t think that Tre really cares if the AAV is $19.99M or $20.01M. If Jalen signs at exactly $20M though you can bet that is the dealbreaker. I don’t think you could get Tre for less than $18M today. That’s the floor. You are looking at an AAV between $18M - $22M depending on Ramsey. That’s why I went right in the middle.

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27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think Tre signs unless it resets the market. It’s as much about the optics as anything. I don’t think that Tre really cares if the AAV is $19.99M or $20.01M. If Jalen signs at exactly $20M though you can bet that is the dealbreaker. I don’t think you could get Tre for less than $18M today. That’s the floor. You are looking at an AAV between $18M - $22M depending on Ramsey. That’s why I went right in the middle.

 

Wow, FWIW I just looked at LAR's free agents next year and cap space.  They have little money and Ramsey, Kupp and Floyd to sign!

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On 8/14/2020 at 4:16 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Think they are both in the ballpark. Jalen Ramsey is the one to watch for Tre. He will completely reset the market. The Eagles made Slay the top paid guy at $16.6 per year. Ramsey will be above $18m for sure. He could get to $20m. If I am Tre's people I want more than Ramsey gets. 

I've really lost interest in analyzing deals and contracts, so I don't have anything to add about the details that Tre might expect.   

 

I will, however, say this:  I may be wrong, but it seems pretty clear to me that the Bills' approach to cap management is like Belichick's approach:  except for QB (and maybe MLB), they don't think it's worth it to pay the top of the pay scale to any player.  I think you see it in all the re-signings the Bills do, most particularly and most recently Dawkins.  What did so many posters here say about it?  A "team friendly" deal.  Of course, we haven't seen the big-ticket guys come up yet - Tre, Josh and Tremaine, but over and over what we've seen is "team friendly" deals.  

 

I think the Bills are saying this to their players: "You know how we work and how we are building.  We are all about team, and no player is bigger than the team.  We are willing to pay you very well, but we are not willing to pay you so much that it affects our ability to make the team as good as it possibly can be.  That means that we will not pay you as much as you probably can get someplace else.  (In the case of Tre, than he certainly can get someplace else.)  We hope you will accept less than you can get someplace else because what you want more than anything else is to be part of a top-notch winning organization, and part of being part of a winning organization is sharing the money with the team."   

 

I'm quite confident that's what the Bills are saying and will be saying to players.   I think that's what the Pats said to Brady all those years that he took less than he could get in the open market.  It started way back, with Lawyer Milloy, and it was obvious when they let Vinatieri go - they had a price they were willing to pay and would not move off it, even though everyone knew he was the best kicker in the game.  Shut-down corner is the only position they seem to make an exception for, and I'm sure there were years they would have made the exception for Brady if he had demanded it. 

 

For Beane and McDermott, if I had to guess, I'd say that QB and MLB are the only positions where they will be willing to pay top dollar to keep someone.  I have been prepared for a year or more to lose White unless he's willing to give the Bills a discount.  As painful as it would be to see him go, McBeane view it differently.  Their view is that White's replacement, although clearly not as good as White, will be offset by the better talent the Bills will have at other positions by virtue of having the cap room to sign that talent.   Plus, their view is that all the players have to see that part of what is expected from them is that the best players share the money with everyone else.   All the players have to see that no player is more important than the team.  By consistently sending that message to the players, and by making that message clear around the league, increasingly the Bills will be able to sign guys who are completely dedicated to the team concept that McDermott is selling.  Guys will know that McBeane are so committed to the whole team that they're willing to let a guy as talented as White (and Gilmore before him) walk.  

 

And you know what?  I think we're going to see both Allen and Edmunds give the discount.  I think one of the primary reasons McBeane wanted both those guys because of their commitment to winning as a team, because their ultimate objective wasn't to be the best individually or the highest paid, but to win.  I wouldn't be surprised if Allen and Edmunds haven't talked about it already - they may already have committed to each other that they will take team friendly deals so that they can be part of what's happening in Buffalo.   I think when McBeane took those two guys they had a high level of confidence that they would have the right answer to the ultimate question: "Where would you rather be than right here, right now?"  

 

I have no idea whether White will stay or go, but if he stays, I think he will have decided to leave money on the table. 

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Shaw66, I do hope you are correct, there is good sense in what you said. Fingers crossed that overt greed is kept in check for the overall common good. 
 

Go Bills!!!

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33 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Shaw66, I do hope you are correct, there is good sense in what you said. Fingers crossed that overt greed is kept in check for the overall common good. 
 

Go Bills!!!

I've been up front about it for more than a year:  I think we are watching the construction of the next great team in NFL history, the team to beat for ten years or more.  

 

I think that's what we're seeing for one primary reason:  McDermott is selling something that works to build teams, and he's good at getting players to buy it.  

 

There are, in my opinion, three important contracts to get done:  Allen, Edmunds, and Beane.  Lock in those three, and big things are coming.  

 

Edit:  And as an aside, I live in Connecticut and have been a long-time UConn basketball fan.  Dan Hurley seems like he studied at the same leadership school with McDermott.   His message is the same, guys are buying it the same.  In the past two weeks he signed two big-time recruits for 2021, high school kids who talked about work ethic, about team, and about winning together.  It's nice to have coaches of my two teams succeeding like that. 

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

There are, in my opinion, three important contracts to get done:  Allen, Edmunds, and Beane.  Lock in those three, and big things are coming.  

 

There are 4 important contracts and White is the 4th one. He is just as important as Edmunds in McDermott's scheme. You could argue White was the most important player on the field for our wins against Miami at home and Pittsburgh last year. If we won in Cleveland his coverage of Beckham would have been the main reason. I have no doubt Beane will make him the highest paid CB in history.

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25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There are 4 important contracts and White is the 4th one. He is just as important as Edmunds in McDermott's scheme. You could argue White was the most important player on the field for our wins against Miami at home and Pittsburgh last year. If we won in Cleveland his coverage of Beckham would have been the main reason. I have no doubt Beane will make him the highest paid CB in history.

You may be right.  

 

My opinion is that if you asked McBeane, they would not agree with you, because Beane's cap management strategy can't afford three max contracts at what are three of the four highest paid positions (edge being the fourth).   I think Beane has to stretch his system too much to write three of those contracts.  

 

I suspect that if you could have a completely frank conversation with Belichick and Brady, they would tell you that they talked about the fact that Revis got a max contract and Brady didn't.  I believe Brady accepted that fact because he knew he was going to get very good money for a very long time, and it was worth it to him to let Revis get great money for a short time in order to have the defense that would help Brady win.  

 

Beane doesn't have that luxury with White, because Beane doesn't know yet whether Josh is the guy he needs for the long-term, and he doesn't know if Josh will give the Bills the kind of discount that will allow Beane the luxury of spending big on a corner.  If I'm right about a lot of things, in a few years Josh will be a star and he will work for millions less than he could get in the open market.  That's when Beane will be able to afford to pay top dollar for the best corner back.  

 

As I said before, I think if White insists on the best money, Beane will let him walk just like McDermott let Gilmore work.  When the future is set, when the right QB and the right MLB are in place with their contracts, that's when Beane will know if he can write really big checks for another position.  I expect Beane will have the discipline to insist on a team-friendly deal with White.  

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