Michael Lombardi "Bills have a huge hole at QB".

[Bulldog]

These self proclaimed "experts: who continue to parrot the "you can't improve accuracy" theory have no credibility. I am no expert on the development of NFL quarterbacks, but I am capable of accessing some basic statistics on NFL quarterbacks. Here are two examples - two great quarterbacks - one a "gunslinger" and the other a precision/accuracy type QB:

 

Brett Favre  -- 1991-2001 Average Completion Percentage   ---  60.96%

                          2002-2010 Average Completion Percentage   --   63.32%

 

Drew Brees -- 2002-2010 Average Completion Percentage   -- 64.89%

                         2011-2019 Average Completion Percentage   -- 70.12%

 

Did these two all-time greats not improve their accuracy over time?

 

I really wonder what passes for journalism these days - You can't improve accuracy? What nonsense!

 

I don't have the time or patience to look up additional QB stats - but I dare to guess that some improvement over time is common place in the QB profession.

 

No wonder that the media has lost so much credibility in recent years -- no standards of performance for them. I must have picked the wrong profession. 

 

 

 

  

[QBorBust2018]

Didn’t read a lot of comments. 
 

30 years old bills fan. Josh Allen fan.  I don’t remember Jim Kelly era. From my small sample size outside Drew Bledsoe. I can never remember a bills QB and thinking we still have a shot when down in a game and trying to come back from behind. 
 

Allen with never probably reach the elite echelon. I still think he’s a franchise QB. Not worried about what they think because we won’t be looking for a new one for a while 

[GreggTX]

Unfortunately, he is 100% correct about fixing inaccuracy. The only way Josh Allen scares defenders is by pulling the ball down and running with it. We need someone whose natural arm accuracy forces defenses to adjust. No need to keep the safeties back if the QB misses everything over 20 yards by a wide margin. He also has the worst short range accuracy. 

 

Joe Ferguson could take this team deep into the playoffs. Let's see what Allen can do in year 3.

Edited June 28, 2020 by GreggTX

[Putin]

On 6/27/2020 at 3:43 PM, JaCrispy said:

Not sure...I just heard about it in the movie Dumb and Dumber...?

So you’re saying there is a chance ?? 

[Putin]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Ravens begged Allen to throw it deep. He did, and missed a lot of throws that day.

begged Allen to throw deep ?? They were blitzing on almost every play !!!

Edited June 29, 2020 by Putin

[Stank_Nasty]

8 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

This is so wrong it hurts to read.  The people at PFF have a specific way of collecting and analyzing data that they use to rate QBs.  Allen does poorly by their metrics.  He did poorly in college and he’s done poorly in the pros.  It is what it is.  If he improves, then they’ll rate him better.  If he becomes a successful NFL QB despite doing poorly with their metrics, then they’ll take a look at changing their metrics.  I’ve literally heard them say exactly that when talking about Allen.  

Someone as smart as you apparently are should be able to understand that the dude I was responding to didn’t even bring up PFF. Nor did I. Maybe it hurts to read because you aren’t very good at it. .... good talk, bruh. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[C.Biscuit97]

To sum up this thread:

 

- Lombardi is a ? head because he doesn’t think the 24th ranked quarterback isn’t a superstar

 

- on a super well rounded team, he thinks the 24th ranked qb is the biggest weakness.  Moron.

 

- Lamar Jackson, the former Heisman winner and MVP at 23, is mediocre at best while Josh Allen is being held back by Brian Daboll

 

i wish my girlfriend would ride for me like some of for Allen.  Is this what Bears fans did before last year?

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

To sum up this thread:

 

- Lombardi is a ? head because he doesn’t think the 24th ranked quarterback isn’t a superstar

 

- on a super well rounded team, he thinks the 24th ranked qb is the biggest weakness.  Moron.

 

- Lamar Jackson, the former Heisman winner and MVP at 23, is mediocre at best while Josh Allen is being held back by Brian Daboll

 

i wish my girlfriend would ride for me like some of for Allen.  Is this what Bears fans did before last year?

Josh is ranked 24th in what?  What I care more about is being ranked 6th...in TDs. 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

Josh is ranked 24th in what?  What I care more about is being ranked 6th...in TDs. 

This stat.  This and 4th quarter comebscks.  We scored 19 points/ game with one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Aaron Rodgers lost 15 tds to Aaron Jones.  Brees lost a ton of tds to Ingram and Murray the last 2 years.   Such an overrated stat.  
 

 

fun stat.  JP Losman was top 10 in tds in 2006.

 

Edited June 29, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[Doc]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

This stat.  This and 4th quarter comebscks.  We scored 19 points/ game with one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Aaron Rodgers lost 15 tds to Aaron Jones.  Brees lost a ton of tds to Ingram and Murray the last 2 years.   Such an overrated stat.  

Yes, scoring is such an overrated stat. You win games based on who had the better ranking in some other statistic. ?

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

Yes, scoring is such an overrated stat. You win games based on who had the better ranking in some other statistic. ?

We were the 23th ranked offense with the 2nd best defense in NFL!  Did we watch the same Bills last year?  Literally the only reason this team wasn’t a SB contender was because our offense. 
 

allen is a super good dude who works hard.  But his “potential” is a lot higher than what he has proven on the field.  I heard an interview with Matt Ryan and he said a coach told him the key to being a good QB is making the boring look sexy.  Allen makes the flash plays but he lack consistency and I don’t think it’s as easy to do as some of you.   We are going to have the discussion on Allen next offseason.  Great dude with all the tools but at some point, the proof is in the pudding.  There is absolutely no reason a top 10 pick shouldn’t be a superstar in the MWC. Allen has never been a superstar on any level. 

Edited June 29, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[Doc]

28 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We were the 23th ranked offense with the 2nd best defense in NFL!  Did we watch the same Bills last year?  Literally the only reason this team wasn’t a SB contender was because our offense. 
 

allen is a super good dude who works hard.  But his “potential” is a lot higher than what he has proven on the field.  I heard an interview with Matt Ryan and he said a coach told him the key to being a good QB is making the boring look sexy.  Allen makes the flash plays but he lack consistency and I don’t think it’s as easy to do as some of you.   We are going to have the discussion on Allen next offseason.  Great dude with all the tools but at some point, the proof is in the pudding.  There is absolutely no reason a top 10 pick shouldn’t be a superstar in the MWC. Allen has never been a superstar on any level. 

 

Yes, we all know that the offense held the team back last year, namely at #2 WR and #2 RB.  Which is why they went after Diggs and drafted Moss.  If Knox can fix his drop problem, it's gravy.

 

We'll see what discussion we have next year.  I'd rather let things play out than speculate on what it might be about.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yes, we all know that the offense held the team back last year, namely at #2 WR and #2 RB.  Which is why they went after Diggs and drafted Moss.  If Knox can fix his drop problem, it's gravy.

 

We'll see what discussion we have next year.  I'd rather let things play out than speculate on what it might be about.

 

 

Completely fair and I genuinely hope you are right.  I think as Bills fans, we ignore fatal flaws with qbs because we hope for the best rather than look at objectively.  That said, Allen is in an amazing situation and I just hope we know if he’s the real deal after next year.  I do believe he is a really good dude and hope you are right. But qb is the biggest question mark on this team and every nonBills fan would agree with that.

[Don Otreply]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yes, we all know that the offense held the team back last year, namely at #2 WR and #2 RB.  Which is why they went after Diggs and drafted Moss.  If Knox can fix his drop problem, it's gravy.

 

We'll see what discussion we have next year.  I'd rather let things play out than speculate on what it might be about.

 

 

This ^^^
 

Buffalo lost that playoff game on the passes not caught that were totally catchable, it always takes two to tango in the passing game. Yes Allen needs to get better, that’s a no brainer,  but our receivers let us down repeatedly last season, 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Don Otreply said:

This ^^^
 

Buffalo lost that playoff game on the passes not caught that were totally catchable, it always takes two to tango in the passing game. Yes Allen needs to get better, that’s a no brainer,  but our receivers let us down repeatedly last season, 

No other QBs has receivers drop passes.  Fact.

 

imagine Mitch T’s numbers if his receivers were better!!!  https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

No other QBs has receivers drop passes.  Fact.

 

imagine Mitch T’s numbers if his receivers were better!!!  https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Not saying dropped passes don’t happen to every receiver, regardless of team, did I not state that Allen needs to get better and that it’s a no brainer that he does? Are you sayin that it doesn’t take two to tango in the passing game? If so I can’t wait to hear why, ?

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Not saying dropped passes don’t happen to every receiver, regardless of team, did I not state that Allen needs to get better and that it’s a no brainer that he does? Are you sayin that it doesn’t take two to tango in the passing game? If so I can’t wait to hear why, ?

All I’ve ever said is that maybe the guy who has never completed 60% of his passes on any level, including a low level D 1 conference ,might be more of the reason than the receivers.  
 

again, I hope everyone here is right about Allen.  This team is good enough to win even with below average qb play.  But with a legit good qb, this team can make SB noise.  I pray that Allen surprises the hell out of me. 

[Don Otreply]

21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

All I’ve ever said is that maybe the guy who has never completed 60% of his passes on any level, including a low level D 1 conference ,might be more of the reason than the receivers.  
 

again, I hope everyone here is right about Allen.  This team is good enough to win even with below average qb play.  But with a legit good qb, this team can make SB noise.  I pray that Allen surprises the hell out of me. 

All everyone has ever said from the get go is that Allen needs to get better and it’s a no brainer... not a soul has said otherwise.  league wide though, it’s not the QBs who are dropping passes is it... ?  

[YoloinOhio]

Too funny not to share 

 

 

[BananaB]

22 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We were the 23th ranked offense with the 2nd best defense in NFL!  Did we watch the same Bills last year?  Literally the only reason this team wasn’t a SB contender was because our offense. 
 

allen is a super good dude who works hard.  But his “potential” is a lot higher than what he has proven on the field.  I heard an interview with Matt Ryan and he said a coach told him the key to being a good QB is making the boring look sexy.  Allen makes the flash plays but he lack consistency and I don’t think it’s as easy to do as some of you.   We are going to have the discussion on Allen next offseason.  Great dude with all the tools but at some point, the proof is in the pudding.  There is absolutely no reason a top 10 pick shouldn’t be a superstar in the MWC. Allen has never been a superstar on any level. 

We had 2 returning players from our 2018 offense on last years squad.Did you think they were gonna light up the scoreboard?  Allen has made improvements and the offense has made improvements,  there is no reason think it won’t continue. 

[thebandit27]

28 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Too funny not to share 

 

 

 

That’s definitely me when someone does the “can’t hit the broadside of a barn!!!1!1!1” routine (or repeats any other tired narrative that doesn’t hold water).

[C.Biscuit97]

41 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Too funny not to share 

 

 

I stole this but the Scarface sequel looks terrible. 

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh. There was no gradual improvement throughout the season.

 

Just inconsistent all the way through.

 

Yup.  They would have a good drive or 2 and then go into quarter droughts of doing nothing . 

[Billl]

On 6/28/2020 at 12:42 PM, Bulldog said:

These self proclaimed "experts: who continue to parrot the "you can't improve accuracy" theory have no credibility. I am no expert on the development of NFL quarterbacks, but I am capable of accessing some basic statistics on NFL quarterbacks. Here are two examples - two great quarterbacks - one a "gunslinger" and the other a precision/accuracy type QB:

 

Brett Favre  -- 1991-2001 Average Completion Percentage   ---  60.96%

                          2002-2010 Average Completion Percentage   --   63.32%

 

Drew Brees -- 2002-2010 Average Completion Percentage   -- 64.89%

                         2011-2019 Average Completion Percentage   -- 70.12%

 

Did these two all-time greats not improve their accuracy over time?

 

I really wonder what passes for journalism these days - You can't improve accuracy? What nonsense!

 

I don't have the time or patience to look up additional QB stats - but I dare to guess that some improvement over time is common place in the QB profession.

 

No wonder that the media has lost so much credibility in recent years -- no standards of performance for them. I must have picked the wrong profession. 

 

 

 

  

Favre’s numbers only very slightly improved.  In fact, he became less accurate relative to the rest of the league after his 7th season as a starter.  He was top 10 in each of his first 7 seasons and led the league in season 7.  He was 20th in the league the next 2 seasons.

 

Brees improved for sure, but he was never inaccurate compared to the rest of the league. During that first stretch, he averaged finishing 7th in the league in completion percentage.  
 

Allen has been dead last each of his first 2 seasons.  There is simply no comparison.  Even going back 30 seasons to cherry pick comparisons, you still came up with one player who went from above average to start his career and stayed at that level (Favre) and a guy who was very accurate to start his career and became extremely accurate (Brees).  
 

It is not common for QBs to make huge strides in accuracy relative to the rest of the league.  That’s not to say it’s impossible, but if Josh does it, 20 years from now you’ll see every fan of a young, inaccurate QB point to him as the guy who proved it could be done.

[Kemp]

On 6/26/2020 at 9:19 AM, SCBills said:

The hot take/clickbait title of “Bills have a huge hole at QB” is extremely obnoxious.  
 

What I would say is we hopefully have our Franchise QB, and this year will show a lot given Year 1, he had some of the worst weapons in the NFL, with a terrible OL and Year 2, he had an OL in its first year together, with average weapons.  
 

No “Franchise QB” should need an All-Star team around him, but a solid OL, a couple talented young RBs and this WR/TE unit is on par with what most teams have around their Franchise guys.  

Brees has guys like Thomas and Kamara. 

Jackson has an elite OL, good backs and filthy TEs. 
 

Mayfield, may or may not be the guy, but has elite weapons.  
 

Matt Ryan has elite WRs. 
 

Mahomes has filthy talent all over. 
 

Watson “had” Hopkins - and id argue he did the most with less when it comes to franchise guys. 
 

Even Jimmy G had elite backs/OL and Kittle/Deebo 

 

List goes on and on.... We had Allen throwing to Duke Williams in a Playoff Game with a rookie RB as Brown/Beasley (who are good complimentary pieces) proved that they are complimentary pieces. 
 

 

 

At least the excuses will end this year.

[Nextmanup]

On 6/26/2020 at 8:59 AM, prissythecat said:

Are we doomed then?

No, we're just going to need to find a new QB.

 

This is nothing new and has been brewing for several seasons.

 

It all comes to a boiling point this year, if there is a "this year."

If not, it will come to a boiling point next year.

 

 

 

[BananaB]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh. There was no gradual improvement throughout the season.

 

Just inconsistent all the way through.

 

Actually there was until we ran into 3 top 5 defences in our final 4 weeks of play. 

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

No, we're just going to need to find a new QB.

 

This is nothing new and has been brewing for several seasons.

 

It all comes to a boiling point this year, if there is a "this year."

If not, it will come to a boiling point next year.

 

 

 

 

If it's not this year...or next year...will it be the year after next year?  And if it isn't this year...or next year...or the year after next year...will it be the year after the year after next year?  And if it isn't this year...or next year...or the year after next year...or the year after the year after next year...will it be the year after the year after the year after next year?  And if it's not this year... !@#@ it!

[GoBills808]

First off completion% isn't really related to QB accuracy. It's more of a general offensive metric that's as dependent on things like system and pass catchers as it is on how accurately the QB delivers the ball. It just gets applied to quarterbacks. 

 

Second there are a bunch of examples of QBs raising their comp% over the course of their careers, especially as it relates to their early seasons vs as they mature, get a better feel for the game, etc. Eli Manning was a 55.5% thrower his first 3 years in the league and finished his career a 60% guy. Matt Ryan's first 3 years put him at 60.6% and he ended up a career 65.4% thrower. Brees the accuracy dude was 61.3% through three years and now sits at a ridiculous 67.6% career completions. Did the game 'slow down' for them (and many other quarterbacks whose comp% shows similar trajectory as they age?) and allow them to complete a higher percentage of passes? Yes. Did an influx of offensive talent at receiver tend to raise completion% as they were picked up in draft/FA? Yes. Does an improved offensive line correlate to a higher comp% (yes), or a system (existing or implemented later) that features a pass catching RB mean that QB will tend to have a higher comp%? (again yes). 

 

Saying QBs don't improve their completion percentage over time is wrong. Acting like comp% is a measure of accuracy is dumb. 

[Stank_Nasty]

On 6/29/2020 at 12:34 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

This stat.  This and 4th quarter comebscks.  We scored 19 points/ game with one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Aaron Rodgers lost 15 tds to Aaron Jones.  Brees lost a ton of tds to Ingram and Murray the last 2 years.   Such an overrated stat.  
 

 

fun stat.  JP Losman was top 10 in tds in 2006.

 

Dude go look at the other guys on the list surrounding Allen on that total td list. As a general rule it’s made up of real good qb’s at the top. Are you really arguing that total tds is an overrated stat? Seriously? Geez. 
 

you really will do anything it takes to discredit his solid sophomore campaign. I’m sure you’ve already stated in this thread(because you have all offseason) how easy the schedule was last year and how it was a flukey 10-6 to begin with. It’s sort of your thing. 
 

you and a handful of others consistently make it a point make sure the rest of us realize how truly unimpressive last year really was. Thanks so much for being the “realist” for us around here. 

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

On 6/26/2020 at 10:41 AM, Bangarang said:

Michael Lombardi and Cian Fahey are probably lovers.

 

Bangarang, my good friend... you are spot on per usual!

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by Cotton Fitzsimmons

[Gugny]

24 minutes ago, Cotton Fitzsimmons said:

 

Bangarang, my good friend... you are spot on per usual!

 

 

Ye Ole!  Just saying hello and hoping you and yours are well, my friend.

[BananaB]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

19 points in 5 quarters against Houstons defense.... the same defense that gave up 50 plus the next week. 

 

I'll be skeptical about the offense until I see it on the field. Just not a fan of Daboll.

 

You can blame some of that on the coaching.    We seen it a lot in games where we got up last year and games that were close, they played safe at times. How many times did we move up the field and then they trot old man Gore on the field in the red zone and end up taking FGs. As the season went on Gore was by far the weakest link in this offence but got put on the field (and handed the ball) at critical times every Sunday. 
 

Despite having almost a whole new group on O we still didn’t have a complete offense.  I think Diggs and Moss will make a big difference. Singletary and Knox heading into their second seasons will help as well. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by BananaB

[hondo in seattle]

On 6/28/2020 at 12:33 PM, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, he is 100% correct about fixing inaccuracy. The only way Josh Allen scares defenders is by pulling the ball down and running with it. We need someone whose natural arm accuracy forces defenses to adjust. No need to keep the safeties back if the QB misses everything over 20 yards by a wide margin. He also has the worst short range accuracy. 

 

Joe Ferguson could take this team deep into the playoffs. Let's see what Allen can do in year 3.

 

Since you mentioned Fergy...

 

Ferguson only completed 49.5% of his passes during his first five years with the Bills (1973-1977).  During the rest of his career in Buffalo, he completed 53.9% of his passes.  His other passing stats got better as well.  

 

As I mentioned before, some QBs get better with experience.  Allen got better from Year 1 to Year 2 and it's not unreasonable to predict he'll continue to get better in Year 3.

 

The part of accuracy that's really hard to fix is throwing-a-ball-through-a-tire accuracy.  This might be better termed "precision."  While reps and mechanics can help, it's mostly a DNA-driven, God-given talent.

 

But in football, we mostly measure accuracy by completion percentage and QBs can improve their completion percentage a number of different ways.  Maybe the most common is just getting better at finding the open receiver so you don't have to thread a needle.  Good play calling by an OC who understands the QB's strengths and weaknesses helps too.  As does better pass protection.  And fielding receivers who can both create separation and catch.  

 

If a combination of improvements gets Josh to a 65% completion rating and a 90+ passer rating, does it really matter that once-in-a-while he overthrows a receiver because his precision with the ball isn't as consistent as Brady's or Brees'?  

 

 

[TigerJ]

On 6/26/2020 at 9:14 AM, Nester said:

The biggest question Mark on the team is QB.

 

if he plays at the same level as last year, we will stay mediocre. If he can take a step forward this team can do great things. All the pieces are in place. 
 

This team makes it or breaks it all based on Joshs growth. 

I think the team actually takes a step forward if Allen stays the same.  I think the offense got better around Allen,  and I think the defense improved slightly as well.  Naturally, I do hope Allen makes a leap forward, and to be a true contender in the playoffs, he does need to take that next step.

[Buff76ers]

On 6/26/2020 at 2:40 PM, SoTier said:

 

Jackson was the last pick in the first round, not in the draft.  

 

I've never heard anybody claim that the Bills were stupid to take Jim Kelly while Dan Marino was still on the board.  However, if Kelly had busted (like Todd Blackledge who was taken ahead of him) or even been good but not great like Ken O'Brien, I think that the Bills would have been mocked for their pick and that Kelly would have always been unfavorably compared to Marino.

 

The Bills are under even more scrutiny for drafting Allen because they passed twice on QBs who have had immediate success in the NFL for a lesser product.  Trading away the pick that KC used to take Mahomes in 2017 and then using a fortune in talent and draft capital to move up to take Allen in 2018 when Jackson would have been available at the Bills original draft spot will haunt the Bills for the foresseable future unless Allen develops into a franchise QB who has a HOF worthy career.  I think anything less, especially if he fails to become a top tier QB, will always be part of the narrative of the Bills of the next decade and of Allen's career.  Very unfairly because he had no say in what team picked him, it will also be part of the narrative of Josh Allen's NFL career, too.

 

 

I meant to say last pick of the 1st round but thanks for the correction.  My point though was that if Jackson was so good then why did other teams pass then too.  I really don't care cause I personally don't think he is that great of a passer but that is  my opinion. 

[stuvian]

his podcast is nothing but him screaming and swearing trying to pretend he's a millennial. Rather sad

[Motor26]

The same clown who claimed Doug Pedersen was the least qualified coach in the NFL?

[GreggTX]

Josh showed marginal improvement in his 2nd season, but not as much as many imagine. He'll need to show that improvement 4 times over if he's ever going to win a SB.. Is that even possible?

Edited July 2, 2020 by GreggTX

[machine gun kelly]

A 5% improvement is not marginal.  Another 5% and he is right in the middle of the pack of starting QB’s.  He has two very important weapons in Diggs and Moss.  My guess is he’ll be at 65%, so no not Brees, but who is Brees?