2020 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

This year day 2 was kinda day 1 for Buffalo....  so let's get stuck into it:

 

The Bills Picks...

I think both picks the Bills made last night can be categorised under the word "solid." They are both high floor guys who can be solid NFL football players but neither have that pop that gets fans excited in the way that some of Beane's picks in previous years do. Let me start with AJ Epenesa. At the start of this draft season I was the guy deriding the view that Epenesa was a top 15 player in this draft or that he was a true 1st round prospect. I never had him ranked that way I thought talent wise he was always a round two guy. He lacks that real explosion off the edge to be a true 1st round graded pass rusher. He isn't a quick twitch guy or a guy with major bend. He has excellent size, length and strength and when he wins the down he wins with power, effort and has decent hands. As others seemingly cottoned on to this I almost ended up on the other side of the Epenesa argument being an advocate for him as people started to talk in a way that undersells him. He is a good all round defensive end. He is never going to be a massive sack number guy but he will get some pass rush production, will set the edge really well and slide inside in sub packages. I also think he is a scheme fit for the Bills. He needed to go to a team that use what I call a "big end". A guy who normally in base will line up at the 7 tech spot, but in certain looks will even be in tighter at the 5 tech and then can play snaps inside at 3 tech. Essentially it is the role Shaq Lawson has played for us the last two seasons, the role the Bills brought Quinton Jefferson over from Seattle in free agency to play and the role Greg Hardy mostly played when he was in the McDermott scheme in Carolina. The way Michael Bennett was deployed when he was in Seattle is another good example. It isn't sexy - as Beane himself said. I didn't jump out of my seat and punch the air when the pick was announced. But it is a pick that makes sense from a scheme and roster building perspective.

 

Onto Zack Moss. I had him graded as #88 on my big board and the Bills picked him at #86 so value wise he was right about where I thought he should go. I think he will be a productive NFL player for 5 or 6 seasons which for a running back is pretty much par for the course these days. Similar to Epenesa he won't excite because he is not a guy alongside whom you would ever put the word "explosive." Moss is gonna run downhill, he is a one cut runner and stylistically in that regard he is a nice counter balance to Singletary and he is what I have been asking for a - a guy who could split the carries 50/50 with Devin if required. But I thought we needed a real injection of speed at the running back position. I feel like you can win with shifty backs and you can win with power backs but the thing that really frightens defences is that true speed back - a home run hitter. Not sure Moss is that. I don't dislike the pick, I don't dislike the value but I would have preferred more speed.

 

Separately just reflecting over two years it seems that Brandon Beane and I tend to see drafts similarly (other than maybe at running back). The only guy last year (other than the 7th rounders who I hadn't watched) who the Bills took that wasn't in the top 6 best remaining on my board when they went on the clock was Singletary who was 16th. Moss was 17th. AJ Epenesa was my 4th best remaining at the point the Bills selected him at #54. Also in his zoom call Beane was asked specifically about the value he had on receivers at that spot and he said by the time that #54 came around the Bills had no remaining receivers with second round grades. Nor did I and indeed commented on that in the draft thread last night. He said taking a receiver would have required reaching down the board into their third round grades and that is how it would have been on my board as well. My last 2nd round grade at receiver went at #46 - KJ Hamler to the Broncos and, in my opinion, there were just too many good players left at other positions to reach down for a Bryan Edwards (who I liked) or a Denzel Mims (who I liked less).

 

Solid not flashy pretty much sums up day 2 for the Bills. Some might even say a bit boring, and I can get on board with that to an extent, but that does not make them wrong.

 

What about the other 31....

The Baltimore Ravens have absolutely crushed this draft. Man that roster is loaded. Having added Patrick Queen to address their biggest 2019 weakness of inside linebacker on day 1 the Ravens supplemented it on day 2 with a much needed young, downhill runner of a running back that is a perfect scheme fit and will help spell Ingram who definitely showed signs of slowing down as the 2019 season went on. Then they came back in round 3 with Justin Madubuike who will sit behind Calais Campbell as a rookie but is a nasty, versatile, interior penetrator and fits nicely as an end in their 3 man front and Malik Harrison who I think is a really underrated inside linebacker. He can be the thumper they lost when CJ Mosely walked in 2019 free agency but he also has that length and athleticism to take away passing lanes in the middle for the field in the way Tremaine Edmunds does for the Bills. He and Queen together inside is a massive upgrade on what they had last season. I had low seconds on both Madubuike and Harrison.  On and for good measure they came back with Devin Duvernay, a shifty slot receiver for their Quarterback who is at his best throwing inside the numbers. I am really envious of Baltimore. Brilliantly coached, brilliant front office, stability, a plan, they know who they are and they draft accordingly. I have just moved them up the totem pole. They are the team all 31 others - including Kansas City - has to beat. I also want to give a shout out to the Indianapolis Colts who despite having no first round pick added two big time playmakers in Jonathan Taylor (who I had a first round grade on) and Michael Pittman. That is another team that is really well coached and GM'd. Julian Blackmon the safety they took in round 3 from Utah can play too. He is sneaky good. In terms of teams I am less impressed with..... the Seattle Seahawks continue to confuse me. I thought they reached on their first rounder for about the 7th year in a row, then I thought they reached a bit on their second rounder although Darrell Taylor can play and I do like the scheme fit there, and then they took Damien Lewis at the top of the 3rd.... a guard I had a 5th round grade on. Yuck. Also I know Antonio Gibson has a lot of fans here on this board. But if you are the Washington Redskins with one day 2 pick and about a million needs on that roster.... why the hell are you picking a gadget player at #66? That is the sort of pick that perennially bad organisations make. It's exciting. Yes. And dumb.

 

 

What's left?

There are 45 players left on my board that I have watched enough to have a grade on. The top 15 is below:

 

1. Tyler Biadasz*, C, Wisconsin - injury flag

2.  Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah

3. Troy Dye, LB, Oregon

4. Darryl Williams, C, Mississippi State

5. Curtis Weaver, DE, Boise State

6. Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia

7. Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn

8. John Simpson, G, Clemson

9. Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington

10. Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

11. James Lynch, DT, Baylor

12. Bryce Huff, DE, Memphis

13. Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

14. K'Von Wallace, S, Clemson

15. Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF

 

I should say I was texting with my one semi connected NFL guy this morning about Biadasz. I know his 2019 tape is not as good as 2018 but I still really like him and think he is a steal at this point. However, he said while teams did still generally like the tape he knows of two teams from friends in the league for whom the injury situation means he is off the board. It is a hip and teams believe it is something that he would be having to manage the rest of his career. Interestingly for those fans desperate for the Bills to draft a wide receiver on day 3.... as mentioned above by my board the round 2 guys were gone early in the round and as a result round 3 guys started getting taken late round 2 leaving not much meet on the bones by the time the Bills went on the clock at #54. That hasn't happened so much with my round 3 guys. I still have Johnson, Davis and Donovan Peoples-Jones with round 3 grades who will be on the board when round 4 starts so there might be some talent at the spot that makes sense for the Bills in this round. If one or two of them start going I will be interested to see if Beane makes a move.

 

This is not the deepest day 3 class I have ever seen but there is still some value to be had in a few spots. Enjoy everyone.

Edited April 25, 2020 by GunnerBill

[DJB]

Couldn't  agree more on Espenesa. First words out of my mouth when we took him was Shaq Lawson. 

 

He will help set the edge and likely be a more productive run stopper than sack artist. Nothing wrong with another Shaq in round 2. We needed youth at DE added the group. 

 

Moss at 86 was the best remaining  RB by far. I wanted Dobbins at 54 but I do like Moss at 86. He will be our Chris Ivory for us before all the wear and tear. He's a true banger who loves contact. One of the top RB in broken tackles and yards after contact he should really help us in the red zone and late in games wearing down the opponent.

 

People get caught up in his 40 but his tape shows a much faster guy than his 40 at the combine. His tape was probably my favorite  to watch this year  much like Singletary's was for Beane last year. 

 

I can't find the tweet atm, but there was one of Moss running the 40 again  recently in a field fully healthy and his 40 was much better. Might have been in the 4.4 range  just can't recall .

 

Solid picks for us in rounds 2 and 3

Edited April 25, 2020 by DJB

[Philo]

Thanks Gunner, great post. I had the same thought with regard to the Ravens last night. Their draft has been really great. Well run organization. 

 

Where do you have Antonio Gandy-Golden ranked? I believe he may be on the radar and would add the size element to the receivers group. 

[SCBills]

I love the Ravens and Cowboys drafts.  
 

Buffalo has a loaded roster and went with two “solid” (as you pointed out) players.  Both guys are players we can depend on to contribute in a big way, and right away.   
 

Both also could have gone much higher than where we drafted them.  Tremendous value picks.  
 

I love Zack Moss, and I think Epenesa is better than Shaq Lawson.... I’ve never seen Shaq maul OL like Epenesa does. 
 

As for divisional drafts:

 

Pats were sneaky interesting.  A bunch of defensive players and tight ends.  With Dugger in the mix, I can see Belichick going evil genius with some bizarro defense next year.  
 

Jets were “boom or bust”.  I didn’t love their draft and I feel even better after hearing Beane say he didn’t even have a 2nd Round grade on Mims.  Becton should have a floor of “decent”, but could be susceptible to edge rushers for a while. Don’t know much about the Safety, but Mims and Zuniga have high bust potential. 
 

Miami couldn’t mess it up too bad with all the draft capital they had, but outside of Tua, they reached....a lot. 

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner I am sort of confused by the lack of excitement on your part. Guys we drafted may be "solid" but overall result is amazing.

 

Epenesa was around 25 on most big boards, including yours. He is not Chase Young, but he was consensus late 1st/early 2nd round prospect for a reason. And we got him at 54. That is amazing result in my book. Overall tone of your assessment sounds like we drafted him at 33 or so. That would I call "solid".

 

Moss I understand your reservations about playing style and how it fits Bills need, but I think you partly admitted you were wrong about how we can utilize Singletary. So I wouldn't stress what type of back he is and just be happy with his level of play.

 

Overall, we had biggest needs at WR, DE and RB. We drafted and "drafted" Diggs, Epenesa and Moss. That sounds like a dream to me.

 

Just to be clear this is not an attack on you I just would expect you to be more satisfied overall based on your own board

 

Anyway, moving on to day 3, can you adjust your board for Bills and list your top 10-15 choices for us?

[Hebert19]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

But I thought we needed a real injection of speed at the running back position. I feel like you can win with shifty backs and you can win with power backs but the thing that really frightens defences is that true speed back - a home run hitter. Not sure Moss is that. I don't dislike the pick, I don't dislike the value but I would have preferred more speed

Nice write up.   I will comment here however.  We use guys like McKenzie and foster and likely diggs to keep the defense honest on the outside...not to mention for a guy that's not very quick Singletary gets the corner a lot.  

 

The amount of times shifty fast guys get to run 70 yards is waaaaay less than they get caught in the backfield.  We have 2 chain movers which is what this offense needs.. then take shots with play action. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Couldn’t agree more about Baltimore - they are masters of drafting and I’m in awe of what they’ve done already this weekend.  They’re going to be playing in the AFC title game without question.

[YoloinOhio]

@GunnerBill as you know I’ve watched Malik Harrison all through college. Once the light came on (and he got a decent LB coach) I called him “Tremaine Edmunds lite”. Good call.

[SoCal Deek]

Here’s my take: Nobody really knows how any of these kids will do in the NFL, but when I look back at the first three ‘picks, the Bills took a WR, DE and RB....which is EXACTLY what I hoped they would do. This isn’t a team on the outside looking in anymore. This is a playoff team plugging some holes and filling in depth. Go Bills.....really well done!

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

@GunnerBill as you know I’ve watched Malik Harrison all through college. Once the light came on (and he got a decent LB coach) I called him “Tremaine Edmunds lite”. Good call.

 

Exactly how I describe him. Poor man's Edmunds. 

[slaphappy]

I'm guessing the Patriots are expecting to win a lot of games with a score of 6-3

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I agree with you, Colts for not having a 1st Rounder added two nice pieces to their offense in Pittman and Taylor.

 

I think the Lions are doing well. Regardless of whether a CB at #3 is smart, they landed Okudah, Swift, Okwara and Jonah Jackson.

 

The Vikings are also getting good value every pick. Jefferson fell to them,  Gladney, Cleveland into the 3rd and Dantzler.

 

And finally, Cleveland is adding talent and depth to their roster. Willis Jr is the OT they needed, Delpit the Safety, Elliott was value at DT and an LSU linebacker. They have talent and depth everywhere on their roster.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

Couldn't  agree more on Espenesa. First words out of my mouth when we took him was Shaq Lawson. 

 

He will help set the edge and likely be a more productive run stopper than sack artist. Nothing wrong with another Shaq in round 2. We needed youth at DE added the group. 

 

Moss at 86 was the best remaining  RB by far. I wanted Dobbins at 54 but I do like Moss at 86. He will be our Chris Ivory for us before all the wear and tear. He's a true banger who loves contact. One of the top RB in broken tackles and yards after contact he should really help us in the red zone and late in games wearing down the opponent.

 

People get caught up in his 40 but his tape shows a much faster guy than his 40 at the combine. His tape was probably my favorite  to watch this year  much like Singletary's was for Beane last year. 

 

I can't find the tweet atm, but there was one of Moss running the 40 again  recently in a field fully healthy and his 40 was much better. Might have been in the 4.4 range  just can't recall .

 

Solid picks for us in rounds 2 and 3

 

Teams win with these type of players...dependable, good football players to complement an already very good roster, Beane is just letting the draft come to him and it's uncanny how he seems to always find good players that end up being good fits on this team.

[machine gun kelly]

It’s really not a surprise for Baltimore given the decade long success in the draft, although they had a couple of years as a lull.  Izzy was a heck of a GM, and Harbaugh is a heck of a coach.  I’m hopeful Beane and McDermott do the same.

 

It was kind of funny yesterday the NFLR guys were commenting how GB picked a QB, and Rodgers old coach, now for Dallas takes Lamb.  He must have been fuming given he is still only 36.  You can understand in two years, but they needed weapons for Rodgers.

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I love the Ravens and Cowboys drafts.  
 

Buffalo has a loaded roster and went with two “solid” (as you pointed out) players.  Both guys are players we can depend on to contribute in a big way, and right away.   
 

Both also could have gone much higher than where we drafted them.  Tremendous value picks.  
 

I love Zack Moss, and I think Epenesa is better than Shaq Lawson.... I’ve never seen Shaq maul OL like Epenesa does. 
 

As for divisional drafts:

 

Pats were sneaky interesting.  A bunch of defensive players and tight ends.  With Dugger in the mix, I can see Belichick going evil genius with some bizarro defense next year.  
 

Jets were “boom or bust”.  I didn’t love their draft and I feel even better after hearing Beane say he didn’t even have a 2nd Round grade on Mims.  Becton should have a floor of “decent”, but could be susceptible to edge rushers for a while. Don’t know much about the Safety, but Mims and Zuniga have high bust potential. 
 

Miami couldn’t mess it up too bad with all the draft capital they had, but outside of Tua, they reached....a lot. 

 

I think the safety is the best pick the Jets have made. I like Becton, think he is good but he is boom or bust. Zuniga flashy but inconsistent and I am not a Mims guy. One of the sloppiest technicians you will see. 

 

Agree on Miami. Liked the Tua pick. Haven't loved what they have done since.

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

 

 

I can't find the tweet atm, but there was one of Moss running the 40 again  recently in a field fully healthy and his 40 was much better. Might have been in the 4.4 range  just can't recall .

 

 

He hurt his quad at the combine and ran poorly.  Later ran a 4.52 once healthy.  He is fast enough.

[chris heff]

I’m going to get flamed for this, but if speed at the RB position is an issue why not have Christian Wade as third RB over Yeldon? At this point the best you can say of Yeldon is he’s a veteran. What is the point of the Wade experiment? They have had a year to teach this guy how to play football.

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner I am sort of confused by the lack of excitement on your part. Guys we drafted may be "solid" but overall result is amazing.

 

Epenesa was around 25 on most big boards, including yours. He is not Chase Young, but he was consensus late 1st/early 2nd round prospect for a reason. And we got him at 54. That is amazing result in my book. Overall tone of your assessment sounds like we drafted him at 33 or so. That would I call "solid".

 

Moss I understand your reservations about playing style and how it fits Bills need, but I think you partly admitted you were wrong about how we can utilize Singletary. So I wouldn't stress what type of back he is and just be happy with his level of play.

 

Overall, we had biggest needs at WR, DE and RB. We drafted and "drafted" Diggs, Epenesa and Moss. That sounds like a dream to me.

 

Just to be clear this is not an attack on you I just would expect you to be more satisfied overall based on your own board

 

Anyway, moving on to day 3, can you adjust your board for Bills and list your top 10-15 choices for us?

 

I am satisfied. On Singletary I actually have admitted he was better as a rookie than I expected. My concerns about the way he is / should be used remain. 

 

I like Epenesa and Moss. They are solid picks. They aren't exciting picks but I don't think exciting always = good. See my comment on the Redskins. 

 

[FireChans]

55 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner I am sort of confused by the lack of excitement on your part. Guys we drafted may be "solid" but overall result is amazing.

 

Epenesa was around 25 on most big boards, including yours. He is not Chase Young, but he was consensus late 1st/early 2nd round prospect for a reason. And we got him at 54. That is amazing result in my book. Overall tone of your assessment sounds like we drafted him at 33 or so. That would I call "solid".

 

Moss I understand your reservations about playing style and how it fits Bills need, but I think you partly admitted you were wrong about how we can utilize Singletary. So I wouldn't stress what type of back he is and just be happy with his level of play.

 

Overall, we had biggest needs at WR, DE and RB. We drafted and "drafted" Diggs, Epenesa and Moss. That sounds like a dream to me.

 

Just to be clear this is not an attack on you I just would expect you to be more satisfied overall based on your own board

 

Anyway, moving on to day 3, can you adjust your board for Bills and list your top 10-15 choices for us?

It’s because Epenesa is just not a pop off the tape player in the way that some other players are. Same with Moss.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I’m going to get flamed for this, but if speed at the RB position is an issue why not have Christian Wade as third RB over Yeldon? At this point the best you can say of Yeldon is he’s a veteran. What is the point of the Wade experiment? They have had a year to teach this guy how to play football.

I’m 100% fine with this idea. This may even be what the Bills are thinking. They will have a decent sense for where Wade is in his development as they see him everyday. For me, that’s the hard part. I have no idea if Wade is coming along or if he will never make a roster. If they can’t find someone with a longer track record he is worth the shot.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the safety is the best pick the Jets have made. I like Becton, think he is good but he is boom or bust. Zuniga flashy but inconsistent and I am not a Mims guy. One of the sloppiest technicians you will see. 

 

Agree on Miami. Liked the Tua pick. Haven't loved what they have done since.

The Jags have had the ugliest draft from top to bottom for me. Hate what they have done.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The Jags have had the ugliest draft from top to bottom for me. Hate what they have done.

 

Good point. My favourite pick of theirs might be Davon Hamilton.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Anyway, moving on to day 3, can you adjust your board for Bills and list your top 10-15 choices for us?

 

Okay so what I have done is struck through on my top 15 above guys I don't really see as a fit here and added a bit of explanation.

 

1. Tyler Biadasz*, C, Wisconsin - injury flag - bear in mind could be off their board though for health reasons

2.  Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah - already addressed DE and doesn't fit the McDermott prototype in terms of length.

3. Troy Dye, LB, Oregon

4. Darryl Williams, C, Mississippi State - more of a zone scheme fit

5. Curtis Weaver, DE, Boise State - see explanation for Anae - same here

6. Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia

7. Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn

8. John Simpson, G, Clemson

9. Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington - more of a smaller move tight end and see no evidence that is the sort of player Beane values they have brought in big guys who can play in line

10. Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

11. James Lynch, DT, Baylor - better fit as a 5 tech in a 3-4 scheme

12. Bryce Huff, DE, Memphis - again like Anae and Weaver seems not to meet the physical prototype... is a small chance they see him as a guy who could be a developmental SAM

13. Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

14. K'Von Wallace, S, Clemson

15. Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF

[Uncle Joe]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

<snip>

 

As for divisional drafts:

 

Pats were sneaky interesting.  A bunch of defensive players and tight ends.  With Dugger in the mix, I can see Belichick going evil genius with some bizarro defense next year.  
 

 

1 hour ago, slaphappy said:

I'm guessing the Patriots are expecting to win a lot of games with a score of 6-3

 

 

I think I read right here that you can't win in today's NFL with defense. It will be interesting to see how Belichick does post-Brady.
And I am satisfied with the Bills draft so far. Gone are the days where our GMs outsmarted themselves and Beane seems to fill the holes/needs most fans see.
Go Bills!
 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Guys I'm monitoring for us today:
 

CB:

Reggie Robinson II, Tulsa (Rd4-5)

Tory Pride, Notre Dame (Rd4-5)

Harrison Hand, Temple (Rd5-6)

John Reid, Penn State (Rd5-6)

Madre Harper, Southern Illinois (Rd6-7)

Kindle Victor, Georgia Southern (Rd6-7)

 

WR:

Collin Johnson, Texas (Rd4-5)

Antonio Gandy-Golden (Rd4-5)

James Proche, SMU (Rd5-6)

John Hightower, Boise State (Rd5-6)

KJ Osborne, Miami (Rd6-7)

 

LB:

Akeem Davis-Gaither, App State (Rd4)

Troy Dye, Oregon (Rd4-5)

David Woodward, Utah State (Rd5-6)

Francis Bernard, Utah (Rd5-7)

Michael Divinity, LSU (Rd6-7)

 

TE:

Hunter Byrant, Washington (Rd4)

Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri (Rd4-6)

Colby Parkinson, Stanford (Rd6-7)

 

S:

Antoine Brooks, Maryland (Rd4-5)

JR Reed, Georgia (Rd5-6)

L'Jarius Sneed, Louisiana Tech (Rd5-7)

James Wiggins, Cincinnati (Rd6-UDFA)

 

OT:

Ben Bartch, St John (Rd4)

Saahdiq Charles, LSU (Rd4-5)

Trey Adams, Washington (Rd5-6)

Charlie Heck, UNC (Rd5-7)

 

RB:

Anthony McFarland, Maryland (Rd4-5)

Darius Anderson, TCU (Rd5-7)

Jason Huntley, New Mexico State (Rd7-UDFA)

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

This year day 2 was kinda day 1 for Buffalo....  so let's get stuck into it:

 

The Bills Picks...

I think both picks the Bills made last night can be categorised under the word "solid." They are both high floor guys who can be solid NFL football players but neither have that pop that gets fans excited in the way that some of Beane's picks in previous years do. Let me start with AJ Epenesa. At the start of this draft season I was the guy deriding the view that Epenesa was a top 15 player in this draft or that he was a true 1st round prospect. I never had him ranked that way I thought talent wise he was always a round two guy. He lacks that real explosion off the edge to be a true 1st round graded pass rusher. He isn't a quick twitch guy or a guy with major bend. He has excellent size, length and strength and when he wins the down he wins with power, effort and has decent hands. As others seemingly cottoned on to this I almost ended up on the other side of the Epenesa argument being an advocate for him as people started to talk in a way that undersells him. He is a good all round defensive end. He is never going to be a massive sack number guy but he will get some pass rush production, will set the edge really well and slide inside in sub packages. I also think he is a scheme fit for the Bills. He needed to go to a team that use what I call a "big end". A guy who normally in base will line up at the 7 tech spot, but in certain looks will even be in tighter at the 5 tech and then can play snaps inside at 3 tech. Essentially it is the role Shaq Lawson has played for us the last two seasons, the role the Bills brought Quinton Jefferson over from Seattle in free agency to play and the role Greg Hardy mostly played when he was in the McDermott scheme in Carolina. The way Michael Bennett was deployed when he was in Seattle is another good example. It isn't sexy - as Beane himself said. I didn't jump out of my seat and punch the air when the pick was announced. But it is a pick that makes sense from a scheme and roster building perspective.

 

Onto Zack Moss. I had him graded as #88 on my big board and the Bills picked him at #86 so value wise he was right about where I thought he should go. I think he will be a productive NFL player for 5 or 6 seasons which for a running back is pretty much par for the course these days. Similar to Epenesa he won't excite because he is not a guy alongside whom you would ever put the word "explosive." Moss is gonna run downhill, he is a one cut runner and stylistically in that regard he is a nice counter balance to Singletary and he is what I have been asking for a - a guy who could split the carries 50/50 with Devin if required. But I thought we needed a real injection of speed at the running back position. I feel like you can win with shifty backs and you can win with power backs but the thing that really frightens defences is that true speed back - a home run hitter. Not sure Moss is that. I don't dislike the pick, I don't dislike the value but I would have preferred more speed.

 

Separately just reflecting over two years it seems that Brandon Beane and I tend to see drafts similarly (other than maybe at running back). The only guy last year (other than the 7th rounders who I hadn't watched) who the Bills took that wasn't in the top 6 best remaining on my board when they went on the clock was Singletary who was 16th. Moss was 17th. AJ Epenesa was my 4th best remaining at the point the Bills selected him at #54. Also in his zoom call Beane was asked specifically about the value he had on receivers at that spot and he said by the time that #54 came around the Bills had no remaining receivers with second round grades. Nor did I and indeed commented on that in the draft thread last night. He said taking a receiver would have required reaching down the board into their third round grades and that is how it would have been on my board as well. My last 2nd round grade at receiver went at #46 - KJ Hamler to the Broncos and, in my opinion, there were just too many good players left at other positions to reach down for a Bryan Edwards (who I liked) or a Denzel Mims (who I liked less).

 

Solid not flashy pretty much sums up day 2 for the Bills. Some might even say a bit boring, and I can get on board with that to an extent, but that does not make them wrong.

 

What about the other 31....

The Baltimore Ravens have absolutely crushed this draft. Man that roster is loaded. Having added Patrick Queen to address their biggest 2019 weakness of inside linebacker on day 1 the Ravens supplemented it on day 2 with a much needed young, downhill runner of a running back that is a perfect scheme fit and will help spell Ingram who definitely showed signs of slowing down as the 2019 season went on. Then they came back in round 3 with Justin Madubuike who will sit behind Calais Campbell as a rookie but is a nasty, versatile, interior penetrator and fits nicely as an end in their 3 man front and Malik Harrison who I think is a really underrated inside linebacker. He can be the thumper they lost when CJ Mosely walked in 2019 free agency but he also has that length and athleticism to take away passing lanes in the middle for the field in the way Tremaine Edmunds does for the Bills. He and Queen together inside is a massive upgrade on what they had last season. I had low seconds on both Madubuike and Harrison.  On and for good measure they came back with Devin Duvernay, a shifty slot receiver for their Quarterback who is at his best throwing inside the numbers. I am really envious of Baltimore. Brilliantly coached, brilliant front office, stability, a plan, they know who they are and they draft accordingly. I have just moved them up the totem pole. They are the team all 31 others - including Kansas City - has to beat. I also want to give a shout out to the Indianapolis Colts who despite having no first round pick added two big time playmakers in Jonathan Taylor (who I had a first round grade on) and Michael Pittman. That is another team that is really well coached and GM'd. Julian Blackmon the safety they took in round 3 from Utah can play too. He is sneaky good. In terms of teams I am less impressed with..... the Seattle Seahawks continue to confuse me. I thought they reached on their first rounder for about the 7th year in a row, then I thought they reached a bit on their second rounder although Darrell Taylor can play and I do like the scheme fit there, and then they took Damien Lewis at the top of the 3rd.... a guard I had a 5th round grade on. Yuck. Also I know Antonio Gibson has a lot of fans here on this board. But if you are the Washington Redskins with one day 2 pick and about a million needs on that roster.... why the hell are you picking a gadget player at #66? That is the sort of pick that perennially bad organisations make. It's exciting. Yes. And dumb.

 

 

What's left?

There are 45 players left on my board that I have watched enough to have a grade on. The top 15 is below:

 

1. Tyler Biadasz*, C, Wisconsin - injury flag

2.  Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah

3. Troy Dye, LB, Oregon

4. Darryl Williams, C, Mississippi State

5. Curtis Weaver, DE, Boise State

6. Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia

7. Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn

8. John Simpson, G, Clemson

9. Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington

10. Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

11. James Lynch, DT, Baylor

12. Bryce Huff, DE, Memphis

13. Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

14. K'Von Wallace, S, Clemson

15. Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF

 

I should say I was texting with my one semi connected NFL guy this morning about Biadasz. I know his 2019 tape is not as good as 2018 but I still really like him and think he is a steal at this point. However, he said while teams did still generally like the tape he knows of two teams from friends in the league for whom the injury situation means he is off the board. It is a hip and teams believe it is something that he would be having to manage the rest of his career. Interestingly for those fans desperate for the Bills to draft a wide receiver on day 3.... as mentioned above by my board the round 2 guys were gone early in the round and as a result round 3 guys started getting taken late round 2 leaving not much meet on the bones by the time the Bills went on the clock at #54. That hasn't happened so much with my round 3 guys. I still have Johnson, Davis and Donovan Peoples-Jones with round 3 grades who will be on the board when round 4 starts so there might be some talent at the spot that makes sense for the Bills in this round. If one or two of them start going I will be interested to see if Beane makes a move.

 

This is not the deepest day 3 class I have ever seen but there is still some value to be had in a few spots. Enjoy everyone.

Gunner - Thanks so much for your predraft review and for this.   It's really good stuff. 

 

As I always say, I don't know anything about the college guys.  I'd heard of neither of these guys before I saw their names next to the Bills logo.  Having read a little about them, and what you say here, I like the picks.   

 

I think people being upset that the Bills didn't get some guys with a wow! factor don't see how McBeane have built this team and what they value.   A guy like Epenesa doesn't surprise me at all.  McDermott's model doesn't have two explosive guys coming off the edge.   He may be happy to have one, but not two.  He wants a solid, all-purpose guy on the end like, as you say, Lawson.   Even with Alexander on the edge, McDermott had more size and less speed and quickness than people get excited about.   McDermott wants a solid guy who can set the edge against the run and be a problem to move out of there.   He's even changed Hughes since he got to Buffalo.   Hughes isn't the explosive guy who threatens to blow past you inside this time, outside next time, beat you with spin moves and whatever.   He's still a nice athletic guy on the edge, but he isn't Lawrence Taylor.  Hughes plays a much more disciplined game than he used, still based on more speed than power, but he isn't the flashy guy he once was.  McDermott wants his defense to be solid, so solid that it's tough on every square yard of the field.   Remember, when McDermott is asked about sacks, he says he doesn't worry too much about sacks - he wants pressures.   Epenesa is the kind of guy who will get pressures.   He sound so much like Lawson last season that it seems almost like a simple payroll move - let's get the same kind of solid, good but not regularly spectacular play, but get it on a second-round rookie contract instead of what it would have cost to keep Lawson.   May take a year to get him up to speed, but as you point out, the Bills have other assets on board so that there won't be a hole out there in 2020.

 

Moss doesn't surprise me, either.   I disagree with you about break-away speed.  I mean, I agree that Moss doesn't have it, but I don't think it's that valuable.  I mean, sure, if you have a Barkley, who's a total stud, I want him to have speed so he won't get caught from behind, but there aren't many of those guys.   When you're looking at second, third, fourth round talent, a guy with special speed is there only if he's lacking other key running back skills, and speed is less important than other things.   

 

I've watched Moss on just three or four carries, that's all, and one thing stood out - he changes direction like Singletary.   When I saw the first few videos of Singletary, one thing stood out - he changes direction like McCoy.   McCoy changed direction like Sanders.   Sanders was better at it than McCoy, McCoy was better at it than Singletary, and Singletary looks better at it than Moss - in each case, the guy doesn't have quite the quickness as the guy ahead of him.   Moss doesn't have Singletary's quickness, but from what I've read I gather that he's a monster and really tough to bring down.   I don't think he's really a change of pace from Singletary; it's not like one is an inside guy and the other is an outside guy.   They aren't exactly the same, but they're similar.   I agree very much when you say he is the kind of guy who can split the carries with Singletary. 

 

Why did the Bills go this way?   This is pure speculation on my part, but here's what I think.   I think that, just like in the passing game, in the running game the defenses keep getting better and more sophisticated.   Just like the passing game, the running game is more and more about finding a seam and taking advantage of it.   The days of having a running game based on power blocking that opens wide lanes for someone to burst through are gone.   No one is able to run consistently that way any more.   That's why the emphasis on oline play is on teamwork - the trick these days is to get your oline to work together to create a momentary opening.   In that kind of scheme, the most valuable asset in your running back is recognition of the opportunity and lateral quickness and acceleration to take advantage of it.  That's what Singletary has, and it looks like that's what Moss has, too.   Moss doesn't look to be quite as quick, but his recognition looks excellent, and his change of direction in the whole is pretty impressive.

 

Are Singletary or Moss going to pop 40- or 50-yard runs every game?   That isn't who they are.   They're going to get three when others get one, they're going to get eight when others get five, they're going to get 10 or 12 or 15.  Frankly, I always though that's who Thurman Thomas was, a guy who isn't going to blow the top off the defense, but a guy who threatens to hurt you underneath, play after play.   These guys aren't Thurman, of course, but Singletary has shown and Moss looks like they can be consistent playmakers who move the chains.  

 

The truth that some fans have more trouble admitting than others is that McDermott's view of football is about field position, ball control and long drives.   His defense is designed to force opponents to go on long sustained drives.  It's an attacking defense, but it's smart about when and where to attack, and when it attacks he still protects the backend.   A guy like Epenesa fits that style - nothing will be easy running right against him, and he'll be a handful in the passing game.   McDermott's offense is designed to succeed when forced to play the same way.   If the Bills have to go 15 plays for the TD, well then they're going to be good at going 15 plays.   That's what Singletary and Moss are good at.  Just like the offense, it's going to be an attacking offense - that's what Diggs and Brown are for, that's what Knox is for, that's what McKenzie is for,  but let's be real about it - Brown and Diggs are excellent downfield blockers because, well, McDermott is going to be about playing a possession game.   It's almost as though his ideal wideout is a great blocker who can be a solid NFL receiver.  And, of course, Beasley is in the lineup to be part of a possession offense.

 

So as you say, these two picks are solid.   They fit how McDermott wants to play the game.

 

One other thing.   McDermott wants toughness.   He wants really tough, really disciplined players.   He wants guys who hit - not necessarily heat-seeking missile types, but guys who deliver blows when they get to the point of contact.   Sounds like that's who Epenesa and Moss are.  

 

Thanks again.  

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think people being upset that the Bills didn't get some guys with a wow! factor don't see how McBeane have built this team and what they value.   A guy like Epenesa doesn't surprise me at all.  McDermott's model doesn't have two explosive guys coming off the edge.   He may be happy to have one, but not two.  He wants a solid, all-purpose guy on the end like, as you say, Lawson.   Even with Alexander on the edge, McDermott had more size and less speed and quickness than people get excited about.   McDermott wants a solid guy who can set the edge against the run and be a problem to move out of there.   He's even changed Hughes since he got to Buffalo.   Hughes isn't the explosive guy who threatens to blow past you inside this time, outside next time, beat you with spin moves and whatever.   He's still a nice athletic guy on the edge, but he isn't Lawrence Taylor.  Hughes plays a much more disciplined game than he used, still based on more speed than power, but he isn't the flashy guy he once was.  McDermott wants his defense to be solid, so solid that it's tough on every square yard of the field.   Remember, when McDermott is asked about sacks, he says he doesn't worry too much about sacks - he wants pressures.   Epenesa is the kind of guy who will get pressures.   He sound so much like Lawson last season that it seems almost like a simple payroll move - let's get the same kind of solid, good but not regularly spectacular play, but get it on a second-round rookie contract instead of what it would have cost to keep Lawson.   May take a year to get him up to speed, but as you point out, the Bills have other assets on board so that there won't be a hole out there in 2020.

 

 

This is all spot on. AJ Epenesa was not a fit everywhere. Teams like say the Eagles or the 49ers or even the Chiefs who run a lot of wide 9 (ie a lot of their base defense is predicated on both edge guys lining up outside the tackles and rushing around the edge) were never going to draft him. He just doesn't fit those defences. But he the Bills do relatively little of that. They ask their big end to play inside the tackle normally at the 7 tech but sometimes even tight to his DTs as a 5 tech. They ask their end to "do more" than just rush the passer. One of the best things on Epenesa's tape is his ability to exploit and beat inside a tackle who over balances. See his game against the Dolphins new left tackle for evidence. It is about doing your 1/11th. Epenesa fits that perfectly. He isn't "exciting" and he isn't an explosive type that wows his way into the 1st round. But he is a darn good football player. 

[Lurker]

To me, both guys are good solid (yes that can be taken as unexciting) picks.   They probably don't have the upside that more "exciting" guys have, but they also have high floors.   

 

They will give us good production during their first contracts, with the potential to grow into highly desireable second contract guys.   That may seem a little pedestrian, but picking at #54 and #86, it would take some real lightning strikes to get the next J.J. Watt (Epenesa) or Nick Chubb (Moss)...

[yungmack]

Great analysis. Epenesa is a great pick, especially where he was taken. Fully replaces Shaq. Another Thurman, who dropped to the second and had/has a perpetual chip on his shoulder? 

[yungmack]

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Gunner - Thanks so much for your predraft review and for this.   It's really good stuff. 

 

As I always say, I don't know anything about the college guys.  I'd heard of neither of these guys before I saw their names next to the Bills logo.  Having read a little about them, and what you say here, I like the picks.   

 

I think people being upset that the Bills didn't get some guys with a wow! factor don't see how McBeane have built this team and what they value.   A guy like Epenesa doesn't surprise me at all.  McDermott's model doesn't have two explosive guys coming off the edge.   He may be happy to have one, but not two.  He wants a solid, all-purpose guy on the end like, as you say, Lawson.   Even with Alexander on the edge, McDermott had more size and less speed and quickness than people get excited about.   McDermott wants a solid guy who can set the edge against the run and be a problem to move out of there.   He's even changed Hughes since he got to Buffalo.   Hughes isn't the explosive guy who threatens to blow past you inside this time, outside next time, beat you with spin moves and whatever.   He's still a nice athletic guy on the edge, but he isn't Lawrence Taylor.  Hughes plays a much more disciplined game than he used, still based on more speed than power, but he isn't the flashy guy he once was.  McDermott wants his defense to be solid, so solid that it's tough on every square yard of the field.   Remember, when McDermott is asked about sacks, he says he doesn't worry too much about sacks - he wants pressures.   Epenesa is the kind of guy who will get pressures.   He sound so much like Lawson last season that it seems almost like a simple payroll move - let's get the same kind of solid, good but not regularly spectacular play, but get it on a second-round rookie contract instead of what it would have cost to keep Lawson.   May take a year to get him up to speed, but as you point out, the Bills have other assets on board so that there won't be a hole out there in 2020.

 

Moss doesn't surprise me, either.   I disagree with you about break-away speed.  I mean, I agree that Moss doesn't have it, but I don't think it's that valuable.  I mean, sure, if you have a Barkley, who's a total stud, I want him to have speed so he won't get caught from behind, but there aren't many of those guys.   When you're looking at second, third, fourth round talent, a guy with special speed is there only if he's lacking other key running back skills, and speed is less important than other things.   

 

I've watched Moss on just three or four carries, that's all, and one thing stood out - he changes direction like Singletary.   When I saw the first few videos of Singletary, one thing stood out - he changes direction like McCoy.   McCoy changed direction like Sanders.   Sanders was better at it than McCoy, McCoy was better at it than Singletary, and Singletary looks better at it than Moss - in each case, the guy doesn't have quite the quickness as the guy ahead of him.   Moss doesn't have Singletary's quickness, but from what I've read I gather that he's a monster and really tough to bring down.   I don't think he's really a change of pace from Singletary; it's not like one is an inside guy and the other is an outside guy.   They aren't exactly the same, but they're similar.   I agree very much when you say he is the kind of guy who can split the carries with Singletary. 

 

Why did the Bills go this way?   This is pure speculation on my part, but here's what I think.   I think that, just like in the passing game, in the running game the defenses keep getting better and more sophisticated.   Just like the passing game, the running game is more and more about finding a seam and taking advantage of it.   The days of having a running game based on power blocking that opens wide lanes for someone to burst through are gone.   No one is able to run consistently that way any more.   That's why the emphasis on oline play is on teamwork - the trick these days is to get your oline to work together to create a momentary opening.   In that kind of scheme, the most valuable asset in your running back is recognition of the opportunity and lateral quickness and acceleration to take advantage of it.  That's what Singletary has, and it looks like that's what Moss has, too.   Moss doesn't look to be quite as quick, but his recognition looks excellent, and his change of direction in the whole is pretty impressive.

 

Are Singletary or Moss going to pop 40- or 50-yard runs every game?   That isn't who they are.   They're going to get three when others get one, they're going to get eight when others get five, they're going to get 10 or 12 or 15.  Frankly, I always though that's who Thurman Thomas was, a guy who isn't going to blow the top off the defense, but a guy who threatens to hurt you underneath, play after play.   These guys aren't Thurman, of course, but Singletary has shown and Moss looks like they can be consistent playmakers who move the chains.  

 

The truth that some fans have more trouble admitting than others is that McDermott's view of football is about field position, ball control and long drives.   His defense is designed to force opponents to go on long sustained drives.  It's an attacking defense, but it's smart about when and where to attack, and when it attacks he still protects the backend.   A guy like Epenesa fits that style - nothing will be easy running right against him, and he'll be a handful in the passing game.   McDermott's offense is designed to succeed when forced to play the same way.   If the Bills have to go 15 plays for the TD, well then they're going to be good at going 15 plays.   That's what Singletary and Moss are good at.  Just like the offense, it's going to be an attacking offense - that's what Diggs and Brown are for, that's what Knox is for, that's what McKenzie is for,  but let's be real about it - Brown and Diggs are excellent downfield blockers because, well, McDermott is going to be about playing a possession game.   It's almost as though his ideal wideout is a great blocker who can be a solid NFL receiver.  And, of course, Beasley is in the lineup to be part of a possession offense.

 

So as you say, these two picks are solid.   They fit how McDermott wants to play the game.

 

One other thing.   McDermott wants toughness.   He wants really tough, really disciplined players.   He wants guys who hit - not necessarily heat-seeking missile types, but guys who deliver blows when they get to the point of contact.   Sounds like that's who Epenesa and Moss are.  

 

Thanks again.  

 

excellent insight. My 2 cents: I vigorously disagree with those who think the NFL is all about passing & that the running game doesn't matter. A strong running game in fact improves the passing game, especially when the backs can catch.

[mannc]

3 hours ago, slaphappy said:

I'm guessing the Patriots are expecting to win a lot of games with a score of 6-3

And they just might

[NewEra]

The ravens.  Sigh.

 

hitting home run after home run.

 

decosta looks like the best in the business.  Well done Ozzie.  
 

I’m really happy with our team and Beane is a stud, but it’s hard not to look at how they build their team and not be envious.

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

The ravens.  Sigh.

 

hitting home run after home run.

 

decosta looks like the best in the business.  Well done Ozzie.  
 

I’m really happy with our team and Beane is a stud, but it’s hard not to look at how they build their team and not be envious.

 

 

There's always a couple of teams to beat, so I do t worry about it. What's amazing is that people in the know are starting to look at the Bills and think the same thing.