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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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44 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

A coronavirus story not making the rounds today:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/

 

....wonder why ? 

Because they quarantined a city of over 10 million people in order to prevent it from spreading at a geometric rate.  Italy just shut down its country to try to do the same.  Similar things will happen here in the hot zones--already in New Rochelle.  The administration is finally taking it serious--it took the dramatic drop in the stock market to get his attention.  Fortunately, once he made his brief comments at Monday's presser, he has been mostly muzzled on this....let the experts handle it.

 

What makes this thing so serious is the contagion factor (the R-nought #) and the incubation period--you may not show symptoms for a week.  The contagion factor is estimated at between 2-3, which means each person who gets it is infecting at least 2 more.  That is a geometric series.  As an example, If the transmission occurred every 24 hours, within 30 days 1 billion would be infected.  The only way to reduce that factor is to stop interacting--China quarantined entire cities.  Once you get the factor below 1, then you've got it under control for the most part--China has gotten to the point, so they no longer need the facilities they quickly built. 

If you don't reduce the contagion factor, then the number of people who will have a severe cases quickly inundates the health system, as is happening in Italy, which is when the # of deaths soars. 

 

The death rate is double digits for people over 70; and it is also much higher for those with cardiovascular issues, respiratory issues, diabetes, and hypertension.  The flu occurs over the entire winter, so the healthcare system is able to handle what happens; this is happening so quickly, most systems aren't prepared to handle the case loads.  At that point, the only way to slow it is to keep people quarantined for two weeks.  

 

Edited by TPS
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20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

No you are not.  Taking some rational cautionary precautions (especially for out parents/grandparents) is not to much to ask for.

 

 

My mother is 86 and she takes a yearly flu shot and takes precautions around sick people.

She still drives but limits it to good weather during the day.

She finally put away her "vanity" and uses a cane while walking.

 

These are things that "rational" people do so I don't understand why it has to be an either or of "living your life" OR "living in fear".

 

I'm a "moderate independent" who sees this country riddled with broken windows.  I believe there would be a lot less of them if

people would just curb their urges to throw so many rocks.

 

I do not wish to cause any strife in my comment it's just my way of looking at problems.

My brother from Texas (a "trumpster" for lack of another word) and I were planning to visit my mother in Buffalo come May this year.

We are holding off on the visit until we see more facts about this outbreak. 


"Rational" is  the key word.  The numbers are out  there. People panicking, clearing Costco out of toilet paper, buying masks (one time use) for $100 on eBay, canceling all sporting events/travel/work? I think the "rational" boat has sailed.

 

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7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


"Rational" is  the key word.  The numbers are out  there. People panicking, clearing Costco out of toilet paper, buying masks (one time use) for $100 on eBay, canceling all sporting events/travel/work? I think the "rational" boat has sailed.

 

 

You are right, the ship has sailed but on both ends of the bell curve.

Extreme panic and extreme complacency have taken root.

 

I needed to say my piece and I'll end it with the hope that we as citizens look out for our seniors throughout this challenge. 

 

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Surprised there isn't a lot of discussion about using nasal rinses as prevention.

 

Anecdotal evidence and all,  but ever since I started using the Neil Med rinses 5 years ago, I haven't had a big flu infestation or severe colds (which I used to get every year like clock work).  Guessing that should drop the infection rate by a few points.

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8 minutes ago, GG said:

Surprised there isn't a lot of discussion about using nasal rinses as prevention.

 

Anecdotal evidence and all,  but ever since I started using the Neil Med rinses 5 years ago, I haven't had a big flu infestation or severe colds (which I used to get every year like clock work).  Guessing that should drop the infection rate by a few points.

 

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9 minutes ago, GG said:

Surprised there isn't a lot of discussion about using nasal rinses as prevention.

 

Anecdotal evidence and all,  but ever since I started using the Neil Med rinses 5 years ago, I haven't had a big flu infestation or severe colds (which I used to get every year like clock work).  Guessing that should drop the infection rate by a few points.

 

I would guess that anything that helps clean sinus and respiratory tracts would be beneficial. Just like other general hygiene. Let me buy stock in it first, before you make an announcement.

Edited by KRC
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17 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


"Rational" is  the key word.  The numbers are out  there. People panicking, clearing Costco out of toilet paper, buying masks (one time use) for $100 on eBay, canceling all sporting events/travel/work? I think the "rational" boat has sailed.

 

 

It seems you keep overlooking that in the US we are just getting started with the outbreak.  The numbers that are 'no big deal' at the moment, if we lose control of the virus spread, will grow very rapidly in the coming few weeks as different regions break out.  Consider the growth/spread projections as very possible, even likely.  If localities get hit with more patients in need of ventilators than they have ventilators, deaths in America will spike, just as they have done in other countries hit by sudden spikes.

 

The local area decision makers are in a tough spot.  Being responsible for preventable human deaths can weigh pretty heavily on a person.  I know in a possible life and death situation and given what we have witnessed in locations that have lost contain, I would err on the side of caution.

 

And as for personal actions, the stockpiling is waaaay overdone by some.  Without doubt.  On the other hand, I would just remind all the fearless travelers out there that their bravado can result in harm to others that they contact on their trekking.  I know it would bother the hell out of me if the Health Dept called and said I was the apparent source of the illness to a whole lot of others.

Edited by Bob in Mich
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1 minute ago, KRC said:

 

I would guess that anything that helps clean sinus and respiratory tracts would be beneficial. Just like other general hygiene. Let me buy stock in it first, before you make an announcement.

 

Run to Costco first to hoard up on it.

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9 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Was at Walmart this morning and Tylenol Advil aspirin shelves were empty

 

they did have toilet paper. Stopped in to get mousetrap. 

 

Went to KB Toys and they were all out of Mousetrap

 

fkin Dems and their panic

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16 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Was at Walmart this morning and Tylenol Advil aspirin shelves were empty

 

they did have toilet paper. Stopped in to get mousetrap. 

 

We have at least 100 rolls of TP here at the office so what a relief that is.   Still haven't figured out though why the masses need so much of it.  I haven't read that months of diarrhea is a symptom of this thing. 

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30 minutes ago, TPS said:

Because they quarantined a city of over 10 million people in order to prevent it from spreading at a geometric rate.  Italy just shut down its country to try to do the same.  Similar things will happen here in the hot zones--already in New Rochelle.  The administration is finally taking it serious--it took the dramatic drop in the stock market to get his attention.  Fortunately, once he made his brief comments at Monday's presser, he has been mostly muzzled on this....let the experts handle it.

 

What makes this thing so serious is the contagion factor (the R-nought #) and the incubation period--you may not show symptoms for a week.  The contagion factor is estimated at between 2-3, which means each person who gets it is infecting at least 2 more.  That is a geometric series.  As an example, If the transmission occurred every 24 hours, within 30 days 1 billion would be infected.  The only way to reduce that factor is to stop interacting--China quarantined entire cities.  Once you get the factor below 1, then you've got it under control for the most part--China has gotten to the point, so they no longer need the facilities they quickly built. 

If you don't reduce the contagion factor, then the number of people who will have a severe cases quickly inundates the health system, as is happening in Italy, which is when the # of deaths soars. 

 

The death rate is double digits for people over 70; and it is also much higher for those with cardiovascular issues, respiratory issues, diabetes, and hypertension.  The flu occurs over the entire winter, so the healthcare system is able to handle what happens; this is happening so quickly, most systems aren't prepared to handle the case loads.  At that point, the only way to slow it is to keep people quarantined for two weeks.

Quite the answer there.

 

Maybe I didn't make it clear what I was asking. 

 

I wondered why the closing of the 16 temporary hospitals in Wuhan area that handled 13,000 coronavirus patients wasn't more newsworthy than a blip. 

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

A coronavirus story not making the rounds today:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/

 

....wonder why ? 

.....but thank you for your participation.

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In Lombardia, the Italian region most covered by the infection, the regional government is asking the national government to shut down for two weeks public trasportation and all private companies. The national government is neglecting it for now, due to the power of Confindustria (the Association of Industry), but the thing can happen in the very next days.

An entire region (Milan included) can be completely shut down for two weeks.

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58 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

We have at least 100 rolls of TP here at the office so what a relief that is.   Still haven't figured out though why the masses need so much of it.  I haven't read that months of diarrhea is a symptom of this thing. 

Probably the thought is that if the virus hits their area they will want to avoid going to stores to buy things so they are stocking up on non-perishables.

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2 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

 

We have at least 100 rolls of TP here at the office so what a relief that is.   Still haven't figured out though why the masses need so much of it.  I haven't read that months of diarrhea is a symptom of this thing. 

 

 

...went to Home Depot and bought 1,000 corks to stifle my urge in light of no TP............

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So much ignorance.  I apologize as this topic is a bit personal so if I am a bit reactionary again I apologize.  I hesitated as I will be sharing some personal messages but man some of you have your head buried in the sand.  Cut it out with the liberal media nonsense.  This is a worldwide issue.  Just because people aren't dying in huge numbers doesn't make it a big deal.  I have family that lives in Italy and these are some of the messages I got today.  Not from the media.  Not spin just a report from family that lives in a city of about 200k people.

 

The whole country is a redzone so we are all on lockdown.  There are strict rules about going out.  One person from the family can go grocery shopping, being careful to follow all safety precautions, maintaining safe distances etc.  All stores, shopping centers, grocery stores will be closed on weekends.  We can be outside but no gathering in large groups.  All masses or other church gatherings have been cancelled (my interjection - if you are familiar with Italy this is a giant deal).  Funerals will be private services family only. Absolutely no activities including soccer so practice and games have been cancelled.  Schools have set up for distance learning.  This is life until April 3.  We are hopeful that it will make a difference bc the city is critical and hospitals are past capacity.

....

It's now critical hospitals may have to start making a selection of who gets ICU care if people continue to get sick.  At this point I think if the US took these drastic measures now it would be preventative and proactive.

....

All of us in Italy underestimated the virus bc it is low risk.  The problem is it is highly contagious and the only thing we can do to fight it is to contain it.  The US and other countries have the advantage of looking at the situation and acting accordingly.  It's not a hoax it is serious.

 

Just because people aren't dying doesn't mean that it isn't a serious issue.  This is bigger than politics.  Take safety precautions and it won't get to the point of tons of people dying.  It is a GOOD thing to be cautious with this.  Lastly, please cut it out with the persecution complex that this is being done to get Trump out of office.  If he handles this right it could be a boon for him.

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5 minutes ago, section122 said:

So much ignorance.  I apologize as this topic is a bit personal so if I am a bit reactionary again I apologize.  I hesitated as I will be sharing some personal messages but man some of you have your head buried in the sand.  Cut it out with the liberal media nonsense.  This is a worldwide issue.  Just because people aren't dying in huge numbers doesn't make it a big deal.  I have family that lives in Italy and these are some of the messages I got today.  Not from the media.  Not spin just a report from family that lives in a city of about 200k people.

 

The whole country is a redzone so we are all on lockdown.  There are strict rules about going out.  One person from the family can go grocery shopping, being careful to follow all safety precautions, maintaining safe distances etc.  All stores, shopping centers, grocery stores will be closed on weekends.  We can be outside but no gathering in large groups.  All masses or other church gatherings have been cancelled (my interjection - if you are familiar with Italy this is a giant deal).  Funerals will be private services family only. Absolutely no activities including soccer so practice and games have been cancelled.  Schools have set up for distance learning.  This is life until April 3.  We are hopeful that it will make a difference bc the city is critical and hospitals are past capacity.

....

It's now critical hospitals may have to start making a selection of who gets ICU care if people continue to get sick.  At this point I think if the US took these drastic measures now it would be preventative and proactive.

....

All of us in Italy underestimated the virus bc it is low risk.  The problem is it is highly contagious and the only thing we can do to fight it is to contain it.  The US and other countries have the advantage of looking at the situation and acting accordingly.  It's not a hoax it is serious.

 

Just because people aren't dying doesn't mean that it isn't a serious issue.  This is bigger than politics.  Take safety precautions and it won't get to the point of tons of people dying.  It is a GOOD thing to be cautious with this.  Lastly, please cut it out with the persecution complex that this is being done to get Trump out of office.  If he handles this right it could be a boon for him.

I agree with you regarding the bolded. Pelosi, Schumer, other dems and the MSM are making it political though by criticizing the administration's effort. Trump and his team appear to have been on top of this as soon as it became apparent there was a problem. The dems think they can turn this into Trump's Katrina and are almost gleefully exploiting that. 

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16 minutes ago, section122 said:

So much ignorance.  I apologize as this topic is a bit personal so if I am a bit reactionary again I apologize.  I hesitated as I will be sharing some personal messages but man some of you have your head buried in the sand.  Cut it out with the liberal media nonsense.  This is a worldwide issue.  Just because people aren't dying in huge numbers doesn't make it a big deal.  I have family that lives in Italy and these are some of the messages I got today.  Not from the media.  Not spin just a report from family that lives in a city of about 200k people.

 

The whole country is a redzone so we are all on lockdown.  There are strict rules about going out.  One person from the family can go grocery shopping, being careful to follow all safety precautions, maintaining safe distances etc.  All stores, shopping centers, grocery stores will be closed on weekends.  We can be outside but no gathering in large groups.  All masses or other church gatherings have been cancelled (my interjection - if you are familiar with Italy this is a giant deal).  Funerals will be private services family only. Absolutely no activities including soccer so practice and games have been cancelled.  Schools have set up for distance learning.  This is life until April 3.  We are hopeful that it will make a difference bc the city is critical and hospitals are past capacity.

....

It's now critical hospitals may have to start making a selection of who gets ICU care if people continue to get sick.  At this point I think if the US took these drastic measures now it would be preventative and proactive.

....

All of us in Italy underestimated the virus bc it is low risk.  The problem is it is highly contagious and the only thing we can do to fight it is to contain it.  The US and other countries have the advantage of looking at the situation and acting accordingly.  It's not a hoax it is serious.

 

Just because people aren't dying doesn't mean that it isn't a serious issue.  This is bigger than politics.  Take safety precautions and it won't get to the point of tons of people dying.  It is a GOOD thing to be cautious with this.  Lastly, please cut it out with the persecution complex that this is being done to get Trump out of office.  If he handles this right it could be a boon for him.

Sorry to hear this.  Saw something from an Italian Dr today who sounded crushed--they watch people die because they don't have the capacity to provide care. 

 

It will be very difficult for those who've argued that it's all a dem or media scare to climb back down from that and realize just how serious the situation is.  It took the stock market crash Monday to get Trump's attention.  This is the first week that I've seen the administration take it to a level of seriousness that was needed.  Hopefully the decisions that we are making here now, at the state level, will be enough to slow the spread so don't experience what is happening in Italy...

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1 minute ago, TPS said:

Sorry to hear this.  Saw something from an Italian Dr today who sounded crushed--they watch people die because they don't have the capacity to provide care. 

 

It will be very difficult for those who've argued that it's all a dem or media scare to climb back down from that and realize just how serious the situation is.  It took the stock market crash Monday to get Trump's attention.  This is the first week that I've seen the administration take it to a level of seriousness that was needed.  Hopefully the decisions that we are making here now, at the state level, will be enough to slow the spread so don't experience what is happening in Italy...

Horseshit. Trump has been on this since at least January with shutting down our borders and putting a response team together. You're still on your "hoax" bs even though you know that it never was true. Now, if we get it under control it will be because of the states but if we have problems it will be because of Trump. 

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