The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[meazza]

6% mortality rate in Italy based on those who are tested...

 

my relatives are all in lockdown in Rome and in the south.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

I don't know anything about meds, my brother treats melanoma, he does not know.

 

For now situation is under control, doctors and nurses are working very very hard, we have meds and we have equipment, right now.

There is no lack of medical equipment, the percentage of dead people is way higher in Italy because we made a lot of testing of people badly compromised by existing diseases that were posititive to the test (after death). There was, and there is a lot of public debate about the difference betweem dying FOR coronavirus and dying WITH coronavirus.

In Italy both categories were counted, we suspects that many people dying from viral pmeumonia in other countries are not counted. Of course this is just speculation.

Also Italy has the most percentage of old people (second only to Japan).

 

But, the situation is CLOSE TO THE EDGE, and so extraordinary measures took place.

Measures very similar to the ones taken in China.

The legistalitive decree that took places yesterday was named "Stay home".

 

Thanks man stay safe. and everyone.

6 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

And what would that be?  

 

We have a new virus.  It spreads quite readily from someone who is mildly or asymptomatic.  That's going to be impossible to stop. 

Only in the last week or so has some hard info become available about it's etiology. 

Until South Korea it was hard to say if the 3-4% lethality rate was real.  It may still be and the Korea data an outlier, predicated on the less lethal form of the virus or a uniqueness in the Korean population.

Now we know it tends to target the older population, especially immuno-compromised, hypertension, cardiac disease, diabetes.   Got a colleague in her 20's with celiac disease.  What's it mean for her?   Should be ok, but she is immuno-compromised.

 

I work in MetroHealth hospitals, Cleveland.  Primary level-1 trauma ER in the city.  They get the worst of the worst and will be slammed now that a few people have tested positive in Cleveland.  2 of my bosses are ER docs and working, just discussed with one of them this morning maybe staying away from research and managing from a distance in case they get infected and I get quarantined at home, stopping our research.

 

I'm a very rational person, but if my parents are infected I may lose them with their health issues.  I doubt I'm alone.  And I'm going to have to keep on top of them to curtail their social habits as they go out a lot.

 

It's a virus, given the spread in the middle east, I doubt the weather's going to help stop the spread of it.  Viruses also can mutate easily, they're funny that way.

 

I am not panicked but I understand there are and will continue to be many people panicked about this virus.  I don't blame them, we still don't know that much about it.

 

The panic, and stoking of it, is due to fear of the continuing unknown about the virus.   At least among everyone I know and come into contact with.  Exactly what alternative reason for the panic do you feel there is?

 

Right on with parents. My parents not healthy. One in nursing home and living with my mother. Know a few older people who smoke.  Smoking esp older people is a bad thing with this virus.  So many other factors with older people.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

4 minutes ago, meazza said:

6% mortality rate in Italy based on those who are tested...

 

my relatives are all in lockdown in Rome and in the south.

 

The measures are taken not to spread the disease to the south.

South italy hospital capacity is way lower than northern one.

If people will follow the rules, everything will be fine.

[Buffalo_Gal]

15 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

And what would that be?  

 

We have a new virus.  It spreads quite readily from someone who is mildly or asymptomatic.  That's going to be impossible to stop. 

Only in the last week or so has some hard info become available about it's etiology. 

Until South Korea it was hard to say if the 3-4% lethality rate was real.  It may still be and the Korea data an outlier, predicated on the less lethal form of the virus or a uniqueness in the Korean population.

Now we know it tends to target the older population, especially immuno-compromised, hypertension, cardiac disease, diabetes.   Got a colleague in her 20's with celiac disease.  What's it mean for her?   Should be ok, but she is immuno-compromised.

 

I work in MetroHealth hospitals, Cleveland.  Primary level-1 trauma ER in the city.  They get the worst of the worst and will be slammed now that a few people have tested positive in Cleveland.  2 of my bosses are ER docs and working, just discussed with one of them this morning maybe staying away from research and managing from a distance in case they get infected and I get quarantined at home, stopping our research.

 

I'm a very rational person, but if my parents are infected I may lose them with their health issues.  I doubt I'm alone.  And I'm going to have to keep on top of them to curtail their social habits as they go out a lot.

 

It's a virus, given the spread in the middle east, I doubt the weather's going to help stop the spread of it.  Viruses also can mutate easily, they're funny that way.

 

I am not panicked but I understand there are and will continue to be many people panicked about this virus.  I don't blame them, we still don't know that much about it.

 

The panic, and stoking of it, is due to fear of the continuing unknown about the virus.   At least among everyone I know and come into contact with.  Exactly what alternative reason for the panic do you feel there is?

Do you curtail your parents activities due to the flu? Do you stop them from driving? Do you stop them from walking? That may come off as flip, but I am asking it seriously. You work in the ER so you see horrible things every single day. Does that stop you from living your life knowing that an accident, an illness, a random well ... anything, could incapacitate you or bring about your death? In other words, do you live in fear? Or do you live your life? (And no, I ain't bookin' a trip to Wuhan China tomorrow, but I will tell you that my son is already thinking about an Italian vacation when things settle down in Italy.)

We have had hair-on-fire end-of-the-world media driven apocalypses for many years now. This one is another in a long line. Swine flu, Ebola, Legionnaires disease, bird flu (and about 100 more)... all were going to lead to the destruction of the world.  Heck, this one may yet and people will be dancing on graves that they were correct. As for myself? It ain't livin' if I am hidin'.

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[Tiberius]

As a serious Christian who believes the Bible is actually the revealed Truth of God, I don't believe in viruses or that they have the unholy ability to evolve. Secular humanism is such a fraud! Just kidding, but I do think it is interesting how viruses prove evolutionary biology is true. 

 

https://www.vox.com/2014/6/27/5846900/how-viruses-stay-one-step-ahead-of-our-efforts-to-kill-them

Viruses mutate very quickly

The major reason that viruses evolve faster than say, mosquitoes or snakes or bed bugs, is because they multiply faster than other organisms. And that means every new individual is an opportunity for new mutations as they make a copy of their genetic material.

Many of those mutations have no noticeable effect. But every once in a while, one might help the organism survive — for example, by letting viruses infect not just birds, but people, too.

Even among viruses, though, there's a wide variation in mutation rates. HIV, for example, is a very fast mutator. That's because it multiplies especially rapidly — one virus particle will produce about 10 million viruses within 24 hours. What's more, HIV's genetic material is not DNA, but RNA, which is more likely to develop mutations when copied.

Other fast mutators include coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. Influenza viruses are fairly fast mutators, although that varies from strain to strain. That's one reason why flu vaccines are often only effective for a short while.

But many other viruses are more stable — like the measles virus. That's why you're protected against the measles today even if you got vaccinated as a child decades ago.

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

42 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Unfortunately, this virus is killing people over 70 (80s and 90s hardest hit) and people with certain preexisting conditions.. Italy has the second oldest population in the world. And, Italy now has approximately 9,000 of the 113,000 cases worldwide (out of 7.7 billion people). 

Let's call it 120,000 cases. There are 7.7 billion people in  this world. As I posted the other day, your chances of dying from a car accident, walking (falls), or the flu are much greater than catching, or dying from, this disease.  Are you going to give up driving? Are you planning on giving up walking? Did you get a flu shot?

There is a reason people are stoking panic, and it ain't due to disease concern.

 

Exactly. Statistically insignificant.

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

I took this photo from my office today at 9AM.

You can see the main train station of my city, and it is always crowded.

Now no one is around.

 

[IDBillzFan]

2 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF:   ZOMG CORONAVIRUS CANCEL ALL THE THINGS! 

 

“While I have been advocating for erring on the side of caution, I wonder how long this cancelation fever is supposed to go on. Do we keep doing the social distance experiment until the rate of new cases slows or stops completely?”

 

Well, yes.

 

Treat this outbreak seriously but not hysterically..

 

This is outside my own conspiratorial comfort zone, but I'm watching a lot of people with a lot of money choosing to cancel and freeze a lot of commerce because of a freaking bug that doesn't come close to providing the damage everyone is freaking out about.

 

Media-driven panic is about to wreck a lot of lives and businesses unnecessarily.

 

It's a race to see which melts down faster: business or Joe Biden.

 

Go, Joe, go!

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

I took this photo from my office today at 9AM.

You can see the main train station of my city, and it is always crowded.

Now no one is around.

 

 

Thank you for sharing your information (not just this post). Stay safe.  

 

(same goes for @GaryPinC   )

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

 

His comments are about Moderna's vaccine

[Deranged Rhino]

 

 

[meazza]

19 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

This is outside my own conspiratorial comfort zone, but I'm watching a lot of people with a lot of money choosing to cancel and freeze a lot of commerce because of a freaking bug that doesn't come close to providing the damage everyone is freaking out about.

 

Media-driven panic is about to wreck a lot of lives and businesses unnecessarily.

 

It's a race to see which melts down faster: business or Joe Biden.

 

Go, Joe, go!

 

I had the same mindset until I started to see the stats coming out of Italy.  I think the steps governments are now taking are not enough based on how easily it spreads and how lethal it can end up being.

 

Again, Italy has tested 10,000 people and has had roughly 600 deaths which is very high.

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, Bandito said:

Democrats never let a crisis go to waste. Make no mistake they are using this to hurt the American people. The media (part of the DNC) are driving up hysteria to crush our economy. Democrats root for America to fail

LOL 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

(expected)

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, Bandito said:

What's funny is how right I am and how ignorant and wrong you are.

How ignorant you are

[Warren Zevon]

14 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Democrats never let a crisis go to waste. Make no mistake they are using this to hurt the American people. The media (part of the DNC) are driving up hysteria to crush our economy. Democrats root for America to fail

 

Whats up Dr Bandito? Any update on what the 'hoax' you mentioned is? 

[Bob in Mich]

6 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Democrats never let a crisis go to waste. Make no mistake they are using this to hurt the American people. The media (part of the DNC) are driving up hysteria to crush our economy. Democrats root for America to fail

 

How does this theory of 'Dems hyping just to hurt the US economy' explain the shut down actions in other countries like Italy and China?  Those nations have literally shut down cities of millions trying to get control.  Why?   Please don't tell me they are all just teaming up to get Donnie.

 

I saw this post in the 'Off the Wall' board in a post entitled something like 'CDC says Don't touch your face...'.  Thanks to the OP, Hapless Bills Fan.   It has a very informative article.  Along with the poster, Hapless Bills Fan, I too would suggest you read it and consider it seriously.

 

Posted 11 hours ago

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

This is by far the best article about the coronavirus.  It is factual, it is matter of fact, and it is correct.

If you read nothing else, read this.  It explains the different disease outcomes in Hunan vs rest of China, in Korea vs Hunan, and in Italy.

It explains the difference between known and actual cases and the reason for mitigation factors like social distancing and cordons.

 

Read it.

=========================================================

 

In a later post Hapless Bills Fan went on to say.........

 

That article does the best job I've seen of explaining

1. why the case load in Wuhan lagged the reported cases, why the shutdown actually was effective

2. why the death rate is so much lower in S. Korea - it's not because of more testing or more accuracy, it's because of aggressive contact tracing and testing and quarantine, keeping illness below the capacity of hospitals to optimally treat

3. why the death rate in China now is so much lower than it was in Wuhan - for the same reason

4. why the death rate in Italy is so high - the hospitals are overwhelmed and literally making life or death decisions.  We will be there too if we don't act, the disease doesn't care about your politics.  Its. A. Virus.

5. it gives factual examples of what happened in the 1918 flu in cities that took immediate social distancing measures (St Louis) vs those that did not (Philidelphia)

 

To dismiss that whole article as guesswork because you don't understand what epidemiologists do (hint: it is highly educated guesswork and usually quite accurate) is your choice, but IMHO it is foolish.  Very foolish.

 

Please keep in mind that I am a "trained Maniac", not an epidemiologist nor a virologist but a highly-trained scientist who has worked with both.

But of course it is still your choice who to believe.

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, Bandito said:

Yea. You are more likely to get HIV than this virus that hardly has affected anyone worldwide. You are more likely to get struck by lightning. But don't let a crisis go to waste.

 

You are a moron

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, Bandito said:

 

Why are Democrats blaming it on Trump? He has handled it very well. The media and the Democrats have no chance at winning in November so they see this as an opportunity to blame Trump. Complete TDS. You have TDS. Seek help and Quarantine!

Why aren't you worried about getting in your car? The flu? Much more dangerous than this virus. But don't let facts get in the way of your TDS

No, Trump isn't handling anything well. He is a bozo. 

 

As to my car...is my car causing a recession? Is my car spreading a virus? No and no 

 

So you are actually advocating for the media not to report this? Not to have Pence's press conference on? What's wrong with you? 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Warren Zevon]

3 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Says the guy panicking about a virus that no one under the age of 80 withour pre-exisiting conditions has died from. Moron indeed! Look in the mirror loser.

Again,

 

Your TDS is showing. You suck down everything the media tells you. If you can't tell how biased the media is with this reporting, there is no hope for you. You are completely a brainwashed DNC lemming. There is no recession. If anything, the media and Democrats blowing this out of proportion has caused the stocks to dip, but they'll climb back up in the near future. You have so much hate in your heart for Trump that you pray for the country to fail. Get ready for 4 more years of MAGA, KAG, douche

 

You are panicking at the thought of others being concerned and taking precautions. 

 

Global pandemic but it's a hoax.

 

Are you an anti-vaxer too or just a dipschit when it comes to Covid-19?

 

 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Says the guy panicking about a virus that no one under the age of 80 withour pre-exisiting conditions has died from. Moron indeed! Look in the mirror loser.

Again,

 

Your TDS is showing. You suck down everything the media tells you. If you can't tell how biased the media is with this reporting, there is no hope for you. You are completely a brainwashed DNC lemming. There is no recession. If anything, the media and Democrats blowing this out of proportion has caused the stocks to dip, but they'll climb back up in the near future. You have so much hate in your heart for Trump that you pray for the country to fail. Get ready for 4 more years of MAGA, KAG, douche

So the media shouldn't be showing Pence's press conference on this issue? Is that seriously your point? 

 

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[Tiberius]

Oh no! The Media might report this just to hurt Trump! 

WHO is a deep state organization, obviously 

CORONAVIRUS

WHO declares a global pandemic

[Warren Zevon]

Is Bandito the_dude?

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

Is Bandito the_dude?

Could be any one of a number of posters 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[US Egg]

A coronavirus story not making the rounds today:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/china-shuts-all-16-temporary-coronavirus-hospitals-in-wuhan/

 

....wonder why ? 

 

Just found this:

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by I am the egg man

[KD in CA]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

SCARY HUGE PERCENTAGES!!!!   EVERYONE PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

 

SCARY HUGE PERCENTAGES!!!!   EVERYONE PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

 

Not panic myself. Just sharing.

[Warren Zevon]

5 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

 

SCARY HUGE PERCENTAGES!!!!   EVERYONE PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

 

Look in the mirror, dude. It looks like you are panicking about Buffalo Bills Fan posting a fact.

[Foxx]

2 hours ago, Hardhatharry said:

You see, he becomes childish and cannot even talk about the subject at hand.

You tried to use the flu thing and I shut it down, you are running out of excuses.

you have serious issues.

 

oh and... you're an idiot.

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

And what would that be?  

 

We have a new virus.  It spreads quite readily from someone who is mildly or asymptomatic.  That's going to be impossible to stop. 

Only in the last week or so has some hard info become available about it's etiology. 

Until South Korea it was hard to say if the 3-4% lethality rate was real.  It may still be and the Korea data an outlier, predicated on the less lethal form of the virus or a uniqueness in the Korean population.

Now we know it tends to target the older population, especially immuno-compromised, hypertension, cardiac disease, diabetes.   Got a colleague in her 20's with celiac disease.  What's it mean for her?   Should be ok, but she is immuno-compromised.

 

I work in MetroHealth hospitals, Cleveland.  Primary level-1 trauma ER in the city.  They get the worst of the worst and will be slammed now that a few people have tested positive in Cleveland.  2 of my bosses are ER docs and working, just discussed with one of them this morning maybe staying away from research and managing from a distance in case they get infected and I get quarantined at home, stopping our research.

 

I'm a very rational person, but if my parents are infected I may lose them with their health issues.  I doubt I'm alone.  And I'm going to have to keep on top of them to curtail their social habits as they go out a lot.

 

It's a virus, given the spread in the middle east, I doubt the weather's going to help stop the spread of it.  Viruses also can mutate easily, they're funny that way.

 

I am not panicked but I understand there are and will continue to be many people panicked about this virus.  I don't blame them, we still don't know that much about it.

 

The panic, and stoking of it, is due to fear of the continuing unknown about the virus.   At least among everyone I know and come into contact with.  Exactly what alternative reason for the panic do you feel there is?

 

No you are not.  Taking some rational cautionary precautions (especially for out parents/grandparents) is not to much to ask for.

 

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Do you curtail your parents activities due to the flu? Do you stop them from driving? Do you stop them from walking? That may come off as flip, but I am asking it seriously. You work in the ER so you see horrible things every single day. Does that stop you from living your life knowing that an accident, an illness, a random well ... anything, could incapacitate you or bring about your death? In other words, do you live in fear? Or do you live your life? (And no, I ain't bookin' a trip to Wuhan China tomorrow, but I will tell you that my son is already thinking about an Italian vacation when things settle down in Italy.)

We have had hair-on-fire end-of-the-world media driven apocalypses for many years now. This one is another in a long line. Swine flu, Ebola, Legionnaires disease, bird flu (and about 100 more)... all were going to lead to the destruction of the world.  Heck, this one may yet and people will be dancing on graves that they were correct. As for myself? It ain't livin' if I am hidin'.

 

 

My mother is 86 and she takes a yearly flu shot and takes precautions around sick people.

She still drives but limits it to good weather during the day.

She finally put away her "vanity" and uses a cane while walking.

 

These are things that "rational" people do so I don't understand why it has to be an either or of "living your life" OR "living in fear".

 

I'm a "moderate independent" who sees this country riddled with broken windows.  I believe there would be a lot less of them if

people would just curb their urges to throw so many rocks.

 

I do not wish to cause any strife in my comment it's just my way of looking at problems.

My brother from Texas (a "trumpster" for lack of another word) and I were planning to visit my mother in Buffalo come May this year.

We are holding off on the visit until we see more facts about this outbreak. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by ColoradoBills

[Tiberius]

• 1:30 PM
  Trump may address nation tonight from Oval Office

And the media will show this, just to spread panic! 

[Foxx]

i find myself wondering how Htrae is faring in all of this.

[KD in CA]

16 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Look in the mirror, dude. It looks like you are panicking about Buffalo Bills Fan posting a fact.

Settle down Beavis.  If weren’t in such a reactionary rush, you’d have noticed I was mocking the headline, not the poster.

[Warren Zevon]

3 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Settle down Beavis.  If weren’t in such a reactionary rush, you’d have noticed I was mocking the headline, not the poster.

 

The headline is a fact. 

[B-Man]

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

Scaremongering? Like Trump addressing the nation tonight?