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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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13 hours ago, Foxx said:

the flu, which we have a vaccine for every year currently has a mortality rate of around .8%.

 

Where is this data from? According to the latest CDC estimates for people with the flu if you go by deaths per hospitalizations it's .069 or 7%. Deaths per medical visits is .002 or 0.2% and if you go by deaths per flu symptoms it's way less than that.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Edited by Gary Busey
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Sooooo, the ones that are affected most are the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions? Sound a little like population control to anyone? Take out the ones who have lived "long enough" and those whom are perceived as a "burden" on society by some?

 

Either way, this whole thing wreaks of bs. I was told it was Anthrax that would get us, then the Bird Flu, the Swine Flu, Ebola, West Nile, SARS, MERS-CoV, now the Coronavirus, and talk is starting about Dengue Fever. It's always something and there's always an angle to the fear-mongering they push on the people. Read something yesterday that stood out which was Pharmacy companies keeping an eye on "20 Medicines which are China dependent" in the afternoon. Can you see the price hikes coming yet? I can, but for some reason they just gave a number and didn't list the actual names of the medications. Wonder why that is? Hmmmmm... No matter what continue to stockpile the TP for your bunghole, hand sanitizer, Lysol, dust masks, plastic bags to make those awesome little outfits I have seen some people wearing, and lock yourself in your homes at all times. Hopefully this cuts down on the lines at Bush Gardens and Kings Dominion this year so I'm not sitting in line for an hour and a half for a single roller coaster. 

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2 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Where is this data from? According to the latest CDC estimates for people with the flu if you go by deaths per hospitalizations it's .069 or 7%. Deaths per medical visits is .002 or 0.2% and if you go by deaths per flu symptoms it's way less than that.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

your link was for the '18/'19 flu season.

 

from this years CDC burden reporting:

 

cdcflu.thumb.png.b2d31fce39ab50523161b9c823d506c0.png

 

the factors should be all illnesses vs. mortality, not hospitalizations or medical visits. as that was the metric used in my post for COVID_19 and we are wanting to know that actual rate, not the rate of severe cases. the high end is @ a .11% mortality rate and the low end is @ a .06%. the actual mean is somewhere in between and i went with what is commonly being reported for the rate of this year's flu.

Edited by Foxx
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1 hour ago, H2o said:

Sooooo, the ones that are affected most are the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions? Sound a little like population control to anyone? Take out the ones who have lived "long enough" and those whom are perceived as a "burden" on society by some?

 

Either way, this whole thing wreaks of bs. I was told it was Anthrax that would get us, then the Bird Flu, the Swine Flu, Ebola, West Nile, SARS, MERS-CoV, now the Coronavirus, and talk is starting about Dengue Fever. It's always something and there's always an angle to the fear-mongering they push on the people. Read something yesterday that stood out which was Pharmacy companies keeping an eye on "20 Medicines which are China dependent" in the afternoon. Can you see the price hikes coming yet? I can, but for some reason they just gave a number and didn't list the actual names of the medications. Wonder why that is? Hmmmmm... No matter what continue to stockpile the TP for your bunghole, hand sanitizer, Lysol, dust masks, plastic bags to make those awesome little outfits I have seen some people wearing, and lock yourself in your homes at all times. Hopefully this cuts down on the lines at Bush Gardens and Kings Dominion this year so I'm not sitting in line for an hour and a half for a single roller coaster. 

 

This is the conspiracy theory being floated in China.  They're scared of the hell they wrought with the one-child policy that's leaving them with too many old people and not enough youngsters to support the aging population.  Lo and behold, you have a virus originating in central China that only takes out the old folk.

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KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF:   ZOMG CORONAVIRUS CANCEL ALL THE THINGS! 

 

“While I have been advocating for erring on the side of caution, I wonder how long this cancelation fever is supposed to go on. Do we keep doing the social distance experiment until the rate of new cases slows or stops completely?”

 

Well, yes.

 

Treat this outbreak seriously but not hysterically.

 
 
 
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19 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

Mr Foxx spreading his agenda... Not realizing the virus doesn't care about your political views. 

i understand you are wanting my attention for some reason. lonely maybe?

 

it is not political, i stated my reasoning for my positions on my beliefs. you may not agree with them but that does not make them wrong. you on the other hand have provided no analytical analysis other than 'feelz'.

 

8 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

Mr Foxx got stomped in this thread the second he tried to talk about the flu.

the fact that reading comprehension is lost upon you is not really surprising considering your contributions to this thread.

Edited by Foxx
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9 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i understand you are wanting my attention for some reason. lonely maybe?

 

it is not political, i stated my reasoning for my positions on my beliefs. you may not agree with them but that does not make them wrong. you on the other hand have provided no analytical analysis other than 'feelz'.

 

the fact that reading comprehension is lost upon you is not really surprising considering your contributions to this thread.

You see, he becomes childish and cannot even talk about the subject at hand.

You tried to use the flu thing and I shut it down, you are running out of excuses.

Edited by Hardhatharry
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1 minute ago, TH3 said:

Not at risk to the average American....

 

There were 108 residents at that old folks home in Washington....19 are dead

 

WTF is wrong with you people?

So funny when people talk about "fear mongering" when that isnt what is happening. So when the fire drill goes off in a school that is fear mongering to get the kids to walk out to a respected spot or is it just the way things need to be to avoid bigger problems.

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1 minute ago, Keukasmallies said:

But the tens of thousands who die each year from the flu de jour have been accepted without great outcry, eh?

You just killed any argument by trying to use the flu excuse... Go look back at past posts to see why your argument is moot.

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3 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

So funny when people talk about "fear mongering" when that isnt what is happening. So when the fire drill goes off in a school that is fear mongering to get the kids to walk out to a respected spot or is it just the way things need to be to avoid bigger problems.

 

What if you held that fire drill twice a day, every day?

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Hey guys, as my nick states, i am Italian, I didn't read the topic, I want to tell you about the situazion in Italy.

 

From yesterday the whole nation has been elevated to "red zone" status, meaning that no one is supposed to leave home without a valid reason (work, health or "strict necessity"). The vast majority of companies is switching to partial or full "smart working". Gyms, swimming pools are closed, in every shop people is allowed to enter one at time and outside people is waiting in queues with at least one meter of distance between each other.

Even when walking (in european cities people is mostly walking, not driving) people are keeping the distance on one meter by rule.

Hospitals begin to be full of covid cases, situation is critic, my brother that works in oncology department said that most of medical examinations are postponed not to expose immunosuppressed patients to potential infections. I am 37 years old, my parents are 73 and 69 years old, my brother prohibited me to visit them, unless stricty necessary, in case I have to go there with clean clothes.

I don't take trains or public transportation to go to work, but I decided to make a 40 minutes walk.

 

Three weeks ago, when in China the martial law ruled and people where cared of in military tents, our politicians told us not to stop economy, to continue going on to restaurants, cinemas, museums.

In Europe now no one is caring too much, I cannot blame them, we kept the same behaviour until the situation got critical.

Probably we thought "they are chinese...", now French and German are probably thinking "they are Italians", until the disease will spread up VERY fast.

 

And beware, problem is not the letality of the virus, which mostly kills people with bad pre-conditions, the problem is the number of people required to sustain intensive therapy.

If the situation will get worse, hospitals will decide to treat the young people and let the old people die.

I'm telling you this knowing that we still have one of the best national healt system in the world.

I don't want to imagine how the situation will be handled in the USA.

 

So please spread the word and keep it safe.

   Paolo

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4 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

So funny when people talk about "fear mongering" when that isnt what is happening. So when the fire drill goes off in a school that is fear mongering to get the kids to walk out to a respected spot or is it just the way things need to be to avoid bigger problems.

 

What fear mongering are these people talking about? Facts are facts.

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2 minutes ago, Keukasmallies said:

But the tens of thousands who die each year from the flu de jour have been accepted without great outcry, eh?

Are you serious? You are trying to say we don't try and prevent that and inform people all about it? Huh? 

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3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

What fear mongering are these people talking about? Facts are facts.

I dont know and it seems they just always want to try and make it political which makes it even worse. Virus doesnt care what side of the idiotic political tape you are on.

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

What if you held that fire drill twice a day, every day?

Without a fire that would be basically what people in here are trying to do bringing in politics when it has nothing to do with democrats and republicans.

 

So you are saying there is no virus and we are being put through fire drills for no reason?

 

 

Edited by Hardhatharry
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6 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

I dont know and it seems they just always want to try and make it political which makes it even worse.

 

It's fair to bring politics into it when politicians talk about it - like the president of the USA - and make the situation look like something it is not.

 

"When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done." 

Edited by Gary Busey
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Just now, Gary Busey said:

 

It's fair to bring politics into it when politicians are talking about it - like the president of the USA

 

"When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done." 

Even someone running the country can be a total idiot doesnt matter the political side. He got one wrong but we cannot keep letting him bring this political war to something we need to deal with. Let him talk while the rest of the country is following or starting to follow protocol. This could have been handled better but as a world as a whole you cannot let that stop from trying to slow it down now.

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Quote

A top terrorist-turned-regime official, who in 1979 stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and took 62 American hostages, has died of coronavirus, Iran’s state media confirmed.

Hossein Sheikholeslam, a student at the University of California at Berkeley before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, interrogated U.S. hostages during the 444-day ordeal, media reports said.

Following the release of the U.S. hostages in 1981, Sheikholeslam was sent by the regime to Lebanon, where he played a crucial role in the creation of Hezbollah

 

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Unfortunately, this virus is killing people over 70 (80s and 90s hardest hit) and people with certain preexisting conditions.. Italy has the second oldest population in the world. And, Italy now has approximately 9,000 of the 113,000 cases worldwide (out of 7.7 billion people). 

Let's call it 120,000 cases. There are 7.7 billion people in  this world. As I posted the other day, your chances of dying from a car accident, walking (falls), or the flu are much greater than catching, or dying from, this disease.  Are you going to give up driving? Are you planning on giving up walking? Did you get a flu shot?

There is a reason people are stoking panic, and it ain't due to disease concern.

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5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Let's call it 120,000 cases. There are 7.7 billion people in  this world. As I posted the other day, your chances of dying from a car accident, walking (falls), or the flu are much greater than catching, or dying from, this disease.  Are you going to give up driving? Are you planning on giving up walking? Did you get a flu shot?

 

This is true, we used to say the same things...

 

Problem is that if hospitals are full of covid cases and you will have a car crash, no one will take care of you and will will die.

Read my post above please, no country is taking straordinary measures for no reason.

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24 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

So you are saying there is no virus and we are being put through fire drills for no reason?

 

If there's a fire, it's not a fire drill but a fire evacuation.

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4 minutes ago, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

 

This is true, we used to say the same things...

 

Problem is that if hospitals are full of covid cases and you will have a car crash, no one will take care of you and will will die.

Read my post above please, no country is taking straordinary measures for no reason.

 

Hey hope you and everyone doing ok.  Take good care of you're self. Question is i'm asking if you're brother knows if meds helping people out with covid-19?  What happens if meds run out?

 

Just seeing meds helping lots people out. Just wondering on this.

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3 minutes ago, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

 

This is true, we used to say the same things...

 

Problem is that if hospitals are full of covid cases and you will have a car crash, no one will take care of you and will will die.

Read my post above please, no country is taking straordinary measures for no reason.


I feel bad for the Italians, Paolo. I truly do.  I feel horrible for the elderly. I feel bad for their families. I feel awful for the lack of medical equipment that is preventing Italy from combating this virus.  

Regardless, the numbers are what the numbers are. Approximately .000015% of the population has COVID-19. Less will die from it. Compare that with other diseases, viruses, accidents, etc. It has been devastating to China, Iran, and Italy. That will, unfortunately for  the citizens of those countries, help the rest of the world learn to deal with this virus.

I wish the best for you and your loved ones.

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8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Unfortunately, this virus is killing people over 70 (80s and 90s hardest hit) and people with certain preexisting conditions.. Italy has the second oldest population in the world. And, Italy now has approximately 9,000 of the 113,000 cases worldwide (out of 7.7 billion people). 

Let's call it 120,000 cases. There are 7.7 billion people in  this world. As I posted the other day, your chances of dying from a car accident, walking (falls), or the flu are much greater than catching, or dying from, this disease.  Are you going to give up driving? Are you planning on giving up walking? Did you get a flu shot?

There is a reason people are stoking panic, and it ain't due to disease concern.

And what would that be?  

 

We have a new virus.  It spreads quite readily from someone who is mildly or asymptomatic.  That's going to be impossible to stop. 

Only in the last week or so has some hard info become available about it's etiology. 

Until South Korea it was hard to say if the 3-4% lethality rate was real.  It may still be and the Korea data an outlier, predicated on the less lethal form of the virus or a uniqueness in the Korean population.

Now we know it tends to target the older population, especially immuno-compromised, hypertension, cardiac disease, diabetes.   Got a colleague in her 20's with celiac disease.  What's it mean for her?   Should be ok, but she is immuno-compromised.

 

I work in MetroHealth hospitals, Cleveland.  Primary level-1 trauma ER in the city.  They get the worst of the worst and will be slammed now that a few people have tested positive in Cleveland.  2 of my bosses are ER docs and working, just discussed with one of them this morning maybe staying away from research and managing from a distance in case they get infected and I get quarantined at home, stopping our research.

 

I'm a very rational person, but if my parents are infected I may lose them with their health issues.  I doubt I'm alone.  And I'm going to have to keep on top of them to curtail their social habits as they go out a lot.

 

It's a virus, given the spread in the middle east, I doubt the weather's going to help stop the spread of it.  Viruses also can mutate easily, they're funny that way.

 

I am not panicked but I understand there are and will continue to be many people panicked about this virus.  I don't blame them, we still don't know that much about it.

 

The panic, and stoking of it, is due to fear of the continuing unknown about the virus.   At least among everyone I know and come into contact with.  Exactly what alternative reason for the panic do you feel there is?

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16 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Hey hope you and everyone doing ok.  Take good care of you're self. Question is i'm asking if you're brother knows if meds helping people out with covid-19?  What happens if meds run out?

 

Just seeing meds helping lots people out. Just wondering on this.

I don't know anything about meds, my brother treats melanoma, he does not know.

 

For now situation is under control, doctors and nurses are working very very hard, we have meds and we have equipment, right now.

There is no lack of medical equipment, the percentage of dead people is way higher in Italy because we made a lot of testing of people badly compromised by existing diseases that were posititive to the test (after death). There was, and there is a lot of public debate about the difference betweem dying FOR coronavirus and dying WITH coronavirus.

In Italy both categories were counted, we suspects that many people dying from viral pmeumonia in other countries are not counted. Of course this is just speculation.

Also Italy has the most percentage of old people (second only to Japan).

 

But, the situation is CLOSE TO THE EDGE, and so extraordinary measures took place.

Measures very similar to the ones taken in China.

The legislative decree that took places yesterday was named "Stay home".

Edited by PaoloBillsFanFromItaly
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