The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Asked this before. Most people who post here aren't interested in taking the vaccine. 

 

This early, I'd be worried about safety.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Not saying that Cuomo didn't make mistakes. He did and then corrected them, but too late for too many.

 

It might have helped if the federal government had taken it seriously and provided any kind of guidance instead of pretending there wasn't even a problem,  even though they absolutely knew the storm was coming.

 

Cuomo & DiBlasio didn't correct the mistakes, because the nursing home admittance policy was still in place by late May.  The cases are down because the virus barreled through the tristate and it's almost certain that we have herd immunity here now. NY & NJ paid the ultimate price to get to where it is now, but it wasn't because mistakes were corrected in time.

 

You're also ignoring the mixed messages NYS officials were giving the Fed response teams in February about the state's readiness for the pandemic.

[Buffalo_Gal]

The New England Journal of Medicine Spread of SARS-CoV-2  in the Icelandic Population
Study from April to June, Published July 11, 2020
 

Interview Link
 

</snip>
 

Roger Highfield, Science Director, talks to Kari Stefansson, whose genetic sequencing project has revealed how the UK infected Iceland, that children don’t seem to infect parents, and how to control COVID-19.
 

</snip>
 

Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill. What is interesting is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.
 

</snip>

[123719bwiqrb]

15 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

 

I consider it, but I would probably figure out a way to slow play it for 6-9 months first.  Let others be the guinea pigs.

[GG]

39 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

TY..need to read and understand

 

As usual, the articles focus on the resurgence of the cases, but not the severity of the outbreak.  Israel is going on 2+ months since a rapid reopening, with cases surging.  Yet, the severity is relatively mild.

[SectionC3]

4 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

You don't understand why a virus that first enters the densest part of the country would have its largest effect there?

 

I’ll answer the question on his behalf.  No. 

[Kemp]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Cuomo & DiBlasio didn't correct the mistakes, because the nursing home admittance policy was still in place by late May.  The cases are down because the virus barreled through the tristate and it's almost certain that we have herd immunity here now. NY & NJ paid the ultimate price to get to where it is now, but it wasn't because mistakes were corrected in time.

 

You're also ignoring the mixed messages NYS officials were giving the Fed response teams in February about the state's readiness for the pandemic.

 

And you're totally ignoring the federal government's non-response, that continues until today.

[GG]

Just now, SectionC3 said:

 

I’ll answer the question on his behalf.  No. 

 

Wrong on the facts, as usual

[SectionC3]

Just now, GG said:

 

Wrong on the facts, as usual

 

Hoax.  But at least you communicated clearly this time!  Still waiting for you to identify the question from last week that you had posed to me about voter suppression.  

1 minute ago, Kemp said:

 

And you're totally ignoring the federal government's non-response, that continues until today.

 

It was an alt-response.  

[GG]

Just now, Kemp said:

 

And you're totally ignoring the federal government's non-response, that continues until today.

 

How many times does federalism need to be explained to you?   The federal government is not the primary responder. 

 

If you want to make an argument that USA's system of governing is not ideal when dealing with a crisis like this, which puts the primary burden on local and state governments, then we can discuss it.  But then you would have to acknowledge that there is a huge difference in how the various states handled the crisis, and why NYS was exceptionally bad.  Note that it's not a blue and red issue, because CA & WA did a much better job in early containment.

3 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Hoax.  But at least you communicated clearly this time!  Still waiting for you to identify the question from last week that you had posed to me about voter suppression.  

 

 

I responded.  You ignored it.

 

Have you disparaged a black person intellect today yet?

[Magox]

12 minutes ago, shoshin said:

We've been talking about this for a few months but this is a nice Atlantic on Herd immunity:

 

In a pandemic, the heterogeneity of the infectious process also makes forecasting difficult. When you flip a coin, the outcome is not affected by the flips prior. But in dynamic systems, the outcomes are more like those in chess: The next play is influenced by the previous one. Differences in outcome can grow exponentially, reinforcing one another until the situation becomes, through a series of individually predictable moves, radically different from other possible scenarios. You have some chance of being able to predict the first move in a game of chess, but good luck predicting the last.

 

That’s exactly what Gomes’s work attempts to do. She describes a model in which everyone is equally susceptible to coronavirus infection (a homogeneous model), and a model in which some people are more susceptible than others (a heterogeneous model). Even if the two populations start out with the same average susceptibility to infection, you don’t get the same epidemics. “The outbreaks look similar at the beginning. But in the heterogeneous population, individuals are not infected at random,” she told me. “The highly susceptible people are more likely to get infected first. As a result, the average susceptibility gets lower and lower over time.”

 

Effects like this—“selective depletion” of people who are more susceptible—can quickly decelerate a virus’s spread. When Gomes uses this sort of pattern to model the coronavirus’s spread, the compounding effects of heterogeneity seem to show that the onslaught of cases and deaths seen in initial spikes around the world are unlikely to happen a second time. Based on data from several countries in Europe, she said, her results show a herd-immunity threshold much lower than that of other models.

 

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

 

 

 

Boom!

 

I think this plays in neatly with what we have been discussing.  I was going to write a post about this and maybe when I have more time I will.  The degree of variables and ever-changing circumstances on the ground are unfathomably high that determine outcomes.   This is virus like most things on just about every variable and outcome operate on spectrums. Too often people like to view things in black or white terms but like most things, it's more complicated than that.

 

With that said, I will make a prediction.  That COVID-19 will be with us for many many years.  Within about a year or so it will become one of the many coronavirus flu's that hit our population but there will be so much T cell immunity along with the vaccines that it will have similar effects as your seasonal flu.

24 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

 

 

If I have to I will.  But I don't see that happening.

 

If it's not mandated, then we won't initially take the vaccine.  But I will encourage my parents to do so, not that they need encouraging. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

21 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

How can they become mandatory? I mean the government can make things difficult for people who do not want to get the vaccine, but how can they make it mandatory? And, we do not have enough flu vaccines for everyone. How long would it take to ramp-up COVID-19 vaccines for 330M people?

To answer your question: If they come up with an inactive COVID-19 vaccine, I'd get that. Active virus? Pass. 
 

[meazza]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Boom!

 

I think this plays in neatly with what we have been discussing.  I was going to write a post about this and maybe when I have more time I will.  The degree of variables and ever-changing circumstances on the ground are unfathomably high that determine outcomes.   This is virus like most things on just about every variable and outcome operate on spectrums. Too often people like to view things in black or white terms but like most things, it's more complicated than that.

 

With that said, I will make a prediction.  That COVID-19 will be with us for many many years.  Within about a year or so it will become one of the many coronavirus flu's that hit our population but there will be so much T cell immunity along with the vaccines that it will have similar effects as your seasonal flu.

 

So we'll have 10 to 20 waves?

 

I don't think we could stay shut down for that long

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

So we'll have 10 to 20 waves?

 

I don't think we could stay shut down for that long

 

God, I hope not!  I would say that no way that could happen but you can never underestimate the power of stupidity from the media and politicians.

[ALF]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

How many times does federalism need to be explained to you?   The federal government is not the primary responder. 

 

If you want to make an argument that USA's system of governing is not ideal when dealing with a crisis like this, which puts the primary burden on local and state governments, then we can discuss it.  But then you would have to acknowledge that there is a huge difference in how the various states handled the crisis, and why NYS was exceptionally bad.  Note that it's not a blue and red issue, because CA & WA did a much better job in early containment.

 

 

That is true but only the federal gov can stop air travel to and from China and Europe . The European strain hit NYC and NJ very hard.

 

On 31 January, the Italian government suspended all flights to and from China and declared a state of emergency.

 

This is when the U.S. should have stopped flights to and from Europe.  (I know hindsight is 20/20)

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

That is true but only the federal gov can stop air travel to and from China and Europe . The European strain hit NYC and NJ very hard.

 

On 31 January, the Italian government suspended all flights to and from China and declared a state of emergency.

 

This is when the U.S. should have stopped flights to and from Europe.  (I know hindsight is 20/20)

 

 

Are you ***** kidding me??? 

 

You leftists have got some gall

 

Revisionist history clearly is popular among you guys.

 

 

In any case this is newsworthy.   Looks like the positivity rate is lower than what has been reported.

 

 

[GG]

9 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

That is true but only the federal gov can stop air travel to and from China and Europe . The European strain hit NYC and NJ very hard.

 

On 31 January, the Italian government suspended all flights to and from China and declared a state of emergency.

 

This is when the U.S. should have stopped flights to and from Europe.  (I know hindsight is 20/20)

 

Yes it is hindsight, but all travel restrictions and lock downs were too late.  The main point is how to handle a pandemic once it hits the shores, and in the US, Federalism hinders the responses because you have 50+ different levels of incompetence, and the most virulent strain happened to hit a Fubared city & state.

[plenzmd1]

43 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

A question for anyone who cares to answer... If vaccines for this virus becomes mandatory, will you get one?

not only that, i have volunteered to participate in the trials, but have not heard anything back. They asked a million questions, not sure if what i provided was what they were looking for. 58, skooch high blood pressure..should be getting to risk group they would want to trial it on....but i do have college kids and who knows if they will be living here or not( well i know is not..his ass back in Morgantown already LOl). Have a feeling that is why i have not been selected.

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Yes it is hindsight, but all travel restrictions and lock downs were too late.  The main point is how to handle a pandemic once it hits the shores, and in the US, Federalism hinders the responses because you have 50+ different levels of incompetence, and the most virulent strain happened to hit a Fubared city & state.

it is funny Cuomo says he was following federal guidelines on the nursing home situation, but pounds his fist on and says the buck stops at his desk for all other decisions, including schools. 

[realtruelove]

Has anyone here read about this doctor in Texas and his treatment?  He says this treatment method is being used in other countries with low death rates.  

 

https://www.newswest9.com/article/news/local/local-doctor-believes-he-has-found-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/513-8cd065d2-dbb5-4814-9cdd-5bb0dae77703

[BillsFanNC]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

How can they become mandatory? I mean the government can make things difficult for people who do not want to get the vaccine, but how can they make it mandatory? And, we do not have enough flu vaccines for everyone. How long would it take to ramp-up COVID-19 vaccines for 330M people?

To answer your question: If they come up with an inactive COVID-19 vaccine, I'd get that. Active virus? Pass. 
 

 

I haven't read anything at all around vaccine development for covid19, but if someone is working on an attenuated live virus vaccine it's likely because they are working on an intranasal formulation.  Like Flumist, those formulations typically show higher mucosal immunity and therefore better protection than traditional IM delivery with inactivated virus.

 

I'd get the vaccine regardless.  Are there risks associated with getting any vaccine? Yes.  There are risks with putting any foreign substance into your body.  The risks are typically so infinitesimally small compared to the potential benefits that it makes sense to get it if available IMO. 

[123719bwiqrb]

Just now, realtruelove said:

Has anyone here read about this doctor in Texas and his treatment?  He says this treatment method is being used in other countries with low death rates.  

 

https://www.newswest9.com/article/news/local/local-doctor-believes-he-has-found-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/513-8cd065d2-dbb5-4814-9cdd-5bb0dae77703

 

If he is an avowed Leftist then his treatment is GOLD Jerry!  But if he ever said that the R's are cool, then his treatment is snake oil at best.  Give the media a few days to fill us in better.

[BillsFanNC]

2 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

If he is an avowed Leftist then his treatment is GOLD Jerry!  But if he ever said that the R's are cool, then his treatment is snake oil at best.  Give the media a few days to fill us in better.

 

Or just get Trump to weigh in.  Then we can throw everything else out the window and immediately know whether this is good or bad.

[plenzmd1]

and as anticipated, the Houston Story will roll on Twitter...

 

this is now trending im my timeline..4k retweets

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

How many times does federalism need to be explained to you?   The federal government is not the primary responder. 

 

The federalists and antifederalists fought the fight and the antifederalists lost. The states bend the knee to the feds on a lot of issues and national emergency is one, and the feds could have exercised authority either: overtly by mandate, through direct pressure by funding withholding, or indirectly through political pressure/leadership. The federal government went 0 for 3.

 

Quote

But then you would have to acknowledge that there is a huge difference in how the various states handled the crisis, and why NYS was exceptionally bad.  Note that it's not a blue and red issue, because CA & WA did a much better job in early containment.

 

NYS got hit early when we were still thinking ventilators and laying patients on their backs were a good idea...and also got hit in a single metro area that includes 8 of the 12  most population dense areas of the country, where people live in a way they don't live in any other part of the US. NYC didn't fail. It just was way more prone to something like this. 

 

You can second guess executives in a lot of places--I certainly second guess my governor's handling--but there were few winning moves on the board in March/April. 

.   

Edited July 14, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

45 minutes ago, realtruelove said:

Has anyone here read about this doctor in Texas and his treatment?  He says this treatment method is being used in other countries with low death rates.  

 

https://www.newswest9.com/article/news/local/local-doctor-believes-he-has-found-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/513-8cd065d2-dbb5-4814-9cdd-5bb0dae77703

 

Nothing clinical. An in vitro study did not show success for that particular steroid. 

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/inhaled-corticosteroids-a-rapid-review-of-the-evidence-for-treatment-or-prevention-of-covid-19/

 

Other steroids have shown promise. 

 

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

So, you agree with me that the reason NYC was hit so hard  is because of population density and comparing it to other parts of the country is ridiculous. From a previous post of yours, I thought you held a different opinion.

 

Curious as to whether you think Fox, Breitbart and similar media are also disastrously bad.

 

 

Definitely report from a conservative point of view.  Sometimes not giving total context it happens it doesn't mean the point of view is inaccurate like with all media there is always bias this is just a fact.

 

What the msm has done has morphed into flat out lying. 

 

And they have crossed the line to flat out Un-American---specifically, CNN, MSNBC, The NY Times, and pretty much all of them.  Show me the last story of significance they ran that made you informed AND didn't make you think America or Americans were awful.  Their garbage is easily challenged and called out regularly.  

 

If the Breitbart's and Daily Wires, or Tucker Carlsons were so riddled with falsehoods, lies, and GROSS distortions, you'd be able to easily call them out and refute them. 

 

Instead, there are campaigns to strip them of advertising dollars because they are so successful.

[GG]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The federalists and antifederalists fought the fight and the antifederalists lost. The states bend the knee to the feds on a lot of issues and national emergency is one, and the feds could have exercised authority either: overtly by mandate, through direct pressure by funding withholding, or indirectly through political pressure/leadership. The federal government went 0 for 3.

 

 

NYS got hit early when we were still thinking ventilators and laying patients on their backs were a good idea...and also got hit in a single metro area that includes 8 of the 12  most population dense areas of the country, where people live in a way they don't live in any other part of the US. NYC didn't fail. It just was way more prone to something like this. 

 

You can second guess executives in a lot of places--I certainly second guess my governor's handling--but there were few winning moves on the board in March/April. 

.   

 

The federal government does not have the capacity or resources to be the primary responder.  Everything you mentioned is an after the fact event.  It's the same with a pandemic response, as it is with disaster recovery.  The Feds come in for the clean up.  They are useless in fighting the outbreak.

 

But to address the point directly, there were federal resources thrown at NY, including the hospital ship and help with setting up Javits.  Yet, NY did not use those resources and continued to cycle the infected patients through hospitals and nursing homes.   Imagine how many more lives would have been saved if the sick were sent to the ship or to Javits?

[shoshin]

FL has had 3 straight Tuesdays at about 60 deaths, today at 130. 

[Penfield45]

Conservatives literally believe that all "liberals" collectively conspired with every world government and health organization to tank the economy, force everybody to stay home for a full year, and close all forms of service and entertainment because... they want trump to look bad. 

Edited July 14, 2020 by Penfield45

[shoshin]

13 minutes ago, GG said:

But to address the point directly, there were federal resources thrown at NY, including the hospital ship and help with setting up Javits.  Yet, NY did not use those resources and continued to cycle the infected patients through hospitals and nursing homes.   Imagine how many more lives would have been saved if the sick were sent to the ship or to Javits?

 

No one thought it was a good idea to use the ship, Javits, or Central Park tent hospitals. Those were in place for bottom-falls-out emergency. 

 

In retrospect, we should have had COVID wards/dedicated spaces (in WNY they had this in May) but in March and April, we were still climbing the knowledge curve. NYC metro's situation was unique in the US and will hopefully remain so.  

Edited July 14, 2020 by shoshin

[GG]

10 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

No one thought it was a good idea to use the ship, Javits, or Central Park tent hospitals. Those were in place for bottom-falls-out emergency. 

 

In retrospect, we should have had COVID wards/dedicated spaces (in WNY they had this in May) but in March and April, we were still climbing the knowledge curve. NYS's situation was unique in the US and will hopefully remain so.  

 

That's the issue though.  The cases should have been transferred to those places and not infect the other hospitals and nursing homes.  They were transferring sick patients all over the hospital system and made a bad situation worse.

[RiotAct]

26 minutes ago, Winston Zeddemore said:

 

Yikes...

[TH3]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

 

The federal government does not have the capacity or resources to be the primary responder.   They are  TRUMP is useless in fighting the outbreak.

 

But to address the point directly, there were federal resources thrown at NY, including the hospital ship TO BE USED FOR NON COVID PATIENTS  per DT. 

Fixed some things for you.

 

BTW - I tought DT proclaimed himself a "war time president" in regards to CV.....coward ran and hid and now you cover for him.... 

[Cinga]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

 

I've been watching this too but I wonder how much their lag is on this given this warning.  

 

Weekly mortality surveillance data include a combination of machine coded and manually coded causes of death collected from death certificates. Percentages of deaths due to PIC are higher among manually coded records than more rapidly available machine coded records. Due to the additional time needed for manual coding, the initially reported PIC percentages may be lower than percentages calculated from final data.

Notice they post it days later though as this one was posted June 9 for the week that ended June 4

 

And if you have been watching it for a while as I have, then you haven't seen any upward adjustments after the fact either

[BillsFanNC]

27 minutes ago, Winston Zeddemore said:

 

 

WTF?  

[BillStime]

2 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Fixed some things for you.

 

BTW - I tought DT proclaimed himself a "war time president" in regards to CV.....coward ran and hid and now you cover for him.... 

 

Cult.

[Cinga]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

and as anticipated, the Houston Story will roll on Twitter...

 

this is now trending im my timeline..4k retweets

 

Are people really this seriously stoopid?

[Koko78]

28 minutes ago, Winston Zeddemore said:

 

You know, 100% vs 9.4% -- it's the same thing really right? Numbers are just numbers... 

 

Yes, but those 9.4% self-identified as 100%, so therefore you must respect their choice.

[Unforgiven]

25 minutes ago, Winston Zeddemore said:

 

You know, 100% vs 9.4% -- it's the same thing really right? Numbers are just numbers... 

That's why they want to shut down schools, future dummy votes